Worried about the Orioles in the second half

I didn't expect the Orioles to win many games this season. In fact, I thought they were going to lose at least 100 and be one of the worst overall teams. Instead, the O's have gotten some very strong first-half performances, and they've put together a 45-40 record at the all-star break.

Unfortunately, a division like the AL East in unrelenting, meaning there are still plenty of games left against the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, who all have records of at least .500 or better. Also, with a -36 run differential -- the third-worst mark in the American League -- the O's have more wins than they probably should have, meaning they've been lucky. There's no guarantee that luck continues in their 77 remaining games.

Though his numbers have come down somewhat over the last few weeks, Adam Jones is hitting .289/.330/.534, which would be the best offensive season of his career if he continues to hit for that much power. The O's also locked Jones up with a long-term deal of six years, $85.5 million, which means he'll be in Baltimore through 2018 unless he's traded. Some were worried about owner Peter Angelos's recent unwillingness to spend money, but Jones's contract is the largest contract handed out in O's history. The deal was mostly lauded by fans and baseball analysts alike.

Besides Jones, Matt Wieters is having a nice year, hitting .247/.327/.431 and offering his typically strong defense behind the plate. Many expect better offensive numbers from Wieters, though it's fair to point to his .267 BABIP and note that he's been somewhat unlucky and may be due for a few more hits to drop in.

After Jones and Wieters, though, there isn't much to get excited about. J.J. Hardy is playing solid defense at shortstop, but he's struggling mightily at the plate, posting an on-base percentage of .262. I'm not sure that's being discussed enough. And he's doing that while hitting second in the lineup, which is far from ideal. Even more so than Wieters, Hardy has been unlucky (.233 BABIP), but the O's are going to need much more production from him if they're going to continue to win games. Nick Markakis was recently activated from the disabled list, and he should help the lineup. Still, he was hitting .256/.333/.452 in the first half, which is decent but certainly not great. And obviously the team's other regular hitters -- Wilson Betemit, Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, Jim Thome, Robert Andino, etc. -- don't strike that much fear into opposing pitchers. It also doesn't help that Nolan Reimold's lost for the season, and Brian Roberts might be as well.

Maybe that's why Dan Duquette has said that the O's need "to address the on-base percentage at the top of [the] lineup." There's no question that he's right. But it's important to note that Duquette is also exploring the possibility of dealing for another starting pitcher and has already traded two lower-level prospects for Thome. Since the O's most likely are not as good as their record indicates, trading any decent-to-great prospects away to win right now might not be a very good idea. Obviously no O's fans want to see the team trade Dylan Bundy or Manny Machado away, though the odds of that happening are slim to none. But would it even make sense to trade someone like Jake Arrieta or Xavier Avery for a rental starter or outfielder? I guess that simply depends on who that player would be, how he performs in Baltimore, and whether the O's keep winning games. Duquette is in a difficult position, particularly since the O's haven't finished with a winning record since 1997. They haven't even won more than 70 games since 2005. And if the O's do somehow finish with a winning record, it'll be a minor miracle since most people figured they'd be absolutely horrible.

And, as noted above, since the hitting isn't likely to improve all that much, it's going to come down to pitching -- something to also be concerned about. According to FanGraphs' wins above replacement numbers, the three best pitchers for the O's have been Jason Hammel (2.6), Jake Arrieta (1.6), and Wei-Yin Chen (1.1). Arrieta's inclusion is surprising, but his peripheral stats suggest he's been better than his 6.13 ERA indicates. (For more on Arrieta and not giving up on him yet, see this FanGraphs article from yesterday.) But besides Hammel and Chen, there isn't much to get excited about -- and there's also no guarantee that Hammel and Chen continue to pitch this well. Can a collection of starters, including Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Miguel Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, Tommy Hunter, and maybe Zach Britton or someone else, pitch well enough to get the job done? The depth of that list seems deeper than in seasons past, but if they aren't effective, it doesn't matter that much.

The bullpen also seems like it's due to regress a little bit, even with its AL-leading ERA of 2.75. Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day, Troy Patton, Jim Johnson, and Luis Ayala have all been very good. Collectively, they don't walk many batters (2.78 BB/9), but they don't strike out a ton either (7.2 K/9). They also have the third-highest left-on base percentage (80.3%) in the majors. Still, they get a ton of ground balls (49%) and don't give up many home runs (0.87 HR/9), which are both very good things. So even if the bullpen isn't quite as good, it should still be the best part of the team in the second half.

Team fWAR ranks:

Batting: 5.7 (last)
Starters: 5.8 (21st)
Relievers: 2.6 (9th)
All pitching: 8.4 (17th)
Fielding: -13.1 UZR (24th)

So, yeah, not overly positive numbers. Some O's fans are optimistic -- and good, I'm glad they are, because I like that. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about how this team will finish the season. They have a few key weaknesses, and a couple of mid-season trades won't rectify that.

O's acquire backup catcher Taylor Teagarden

Yesterday, the Orioles acquired catcher Taylor Teagarden from the Rangers in exchange for minor-league pitcher Randy Henry and a player to be named later. With Matt Wieters being the only catcher listed on the team's 40-man roster, the O's were determined to locate a competent backup backstop.

Teagarden, 27, is out of options, which is one reason the Rangers made this move. But he's also failed to live up to the hype at the plate. In 392 major league plate appearances, Teagarden has hit .220/.286/.417 with 16 home runs. That's obviously not particularly good, but then again, he should be an improvement over what Craig Tatum did last season (.195/.245/.230 in 96 plate appearances). In the minors, Teagarden showcased an ability to get on base; unfortunately, that hasn't translated to his major league at-bats yet.

Teagarden's best asset appears to be his defense. According to Matt Eddy and Tim Ednoff of Baseball America, "Teagarden still receives high grades for his defensive skills, however. He's an effortless receiver and blocker with a quick, accurate arm who has gunned down 34 percent of basestealers in the big leagues."

It's not ideal to give up anything valuable when acquiring a backup catcher, though there's no guarantee that Henry or the player to be named later develop into major leaguers. Still, the price the O's paid for Teagarden seems reasonable, and it doesn't appear as if they overpaid.

Most fans have noticed by now that the O's, managed by former Rangers manager Buck Showalter, haven't had any problem recently dealing with the Rangers. Via the Baseball America link above, here's a quick rundown of those trades:

Working backward from Teagarden, the Orioles acquired Darren O'Day in a Nov. 3 waiver claim; righthander Pedro Strop for Mike Gonzalez on Aug. 31; third baseman Chris Davis and righthander Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara on July 30; lefty Zach Phillips for Nick Green and cash on July 19; and lefty Clay Rapada signed a minor league deal on Jan. 27. Even journeyman righty reliever Willie Eyre spent a season with the Rangers' Triple-A affiliate in 2010, with a partial-season stopover in the Athletics system prior joining the Orioles.

There's some decent trades in there, but nothing overly terrible or crazy. Who knows if the O's are done dealing yet, but as long as Showalter's around, a trade with the Rangers is always a possibility.

O's interested in another (almost) 36-year-old DH?

According to MASN's Roch Kubatko, the Orioles may be looking at David Ortiz to fill their designated hitter slot. Although Kubatko admits that the interest is "mostly speculation" at this point, he did pass along the following:

The Boston Globe's Pete Abraham tweeted that [executive vice president of baseball operations Dan] Duquette is meeting with [Fern] Cuza, who represents free agent David Ortiz. Abraham speculated that the Orioles have interest in the veteran designated hitter.

That's not much, but who really knows when the O's are involved?

Ortiz had another solid year last season. He hit .309/.398/.554, surpassing his numbers from the past few seasons. For his career, he's a .283/.378/.544 hitter, which is excellent.

He also turns 36 on November 18 (Friday), which is the same age as Vladimir Guerrero -- and we all know how that signing turned out. Ortiz is probably the better hitter between the two at this point. He's been better the last couple of years; maybe the benefit of mostly DHing in his career has helped him and allowed him to stay stronger at the plate.

I understand that it's speculation, but hopefully the O's have learned from the disappointing Guerrero signing. A young, bad team paying a bunch of money for a DH doesn't make a whole lot of sense. With Guerrero on the roster last season, the O's lost a lot of roster flexibility -- and that's not even mentioning that Luke Scott was already the best option at DH even after they signed Guerrero. At least the Guerrero deal was only a one-year deal; I seriously doubt that Ortiz would entertain anything less than a two- or three-year deal. Guerrero also signed for $8 million; Ortiz would likely command at least $10 million per season.

When considering the O's current roster, signing another full-time DH makes even less sense. Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis are not defensive wizards, and I don't think the O's want to enter the season with both of those guys starting at the corner infield positions. Davis may need to DH sometimes, as will Reynolds. It would also be smart to keep the spot flexible so Matt Wieters can stay in the lineup occasionally when he's not catching.

Could the O's lineup use an upgrade? Yeah, probably. But the roster has plenty of holes, not just at DH. For an organization that needs to be rebuilt from the ground up, it wouldn't be smart to sign an aging DH to a multi-year contract just to score a few more runs over the course of a season.

More on Wieters's power surge

Behind Jeremy Guthrie's strong start (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 10 K, 3 BB), the Orioles beat the Rays again last night, this time 6-2. The O's scored all of their runs via the long ball -- a line-drive solo shot by Nolan Reimold, a three-run bomb by Chris Davis, and a two-run blast by Matt Wieters.

The Wieters home run is particularly noteworthy for three reasons:

1) It was his third homer in three games, and it gives him 20 on the season. It also raises his slugging percentage to .449, which is top five among qualified catchers.

2) He hit the bomb off of Matt Moore, who many analysts and scouts consider to be the best pitching prospect in baseball.

3) It highlights just how well Wieters is hitting against left-handed pitching this season. Take a look:

vs. RH: 367 PA, .231/.283/.365
vs. LH: 133 PA, .348/.429/.696

So that's a little weird, especially since his career splits aren't that crazy.

Career vs. RH: 974 PA, .264/.325/.397
Career vs. LH: 410 PA, .267/.327/.453

Much of that jump in slugging percentage against left-handers is because of his performance this season, so it remains to be seen whether it's legitimate or sort of fluky. I'd probably lean towards fluky, especially since Wieters has a .400 BABIP against lefties and a .243 BABIP against righties this season.

Regardless, Wieters is on a roll lately, and it's never a bad thing to hit for more power.

Wieters hitting for more power

In a 4-2 Orioles win last night, Matt Wieters hit the go-ahead, two-run home run in the eighth inning. That blast gave him 19 homers for the season; his previous season-high was 11 last year.

Wieters is often criticized for not being an absolute force at the plate. As a tremendous defensive catcher, he's still quite valuable as an average to above-average hitter, but he hasn't developed into more than that. Wieters is only 25, so maybe it's just taking him a little longer to transform into the hitter many scouts thought he'd be.

Here's what he's accomplished in three seasons (made his debut in late May in 2009, and obviously the 2011 season isn't finished yet):

2009: 385 PA, .288/.340/.412
2010: 502 PA, .249/.319/.377
2011: 500 PA, .260/.322/.440

Not a huge increase from 2009 to 2011, but his numbers this season are way better than his 2010 stats. His power numbers have jumped, which is impressive, but he's still not getting on base as much as he should. That he's walking only 8 percent of the time (8.3 percent for his career) is rather shocking with the batting eye he possesses, but he also has a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone (33.4 percent) and is also swinging at more pitches in general (48.3 percent) than he did in his two previous seasons.

This post wasn't mean to be a breakdown of Wieters's 2011 season. Maybe that's something I'll work on after the season. But it's still worth noting that he's made a few improvements at the plate, though he still has to get better in other key areas (like, you know, getting on base more often). How's that for in-depth analysis?

The O's still aren't developing younger players

The Orioles lost again last night, but that's not surprising considering how they've been playing lately. The loss included bad starting pitching, terrible relief pitching, and mediocre hitting -- all things that the O's excel at right now. (For what it's worth, Matt Wieters did steal a base [the first of his career], which is something that should never happen.)

It's hard to watch the O's at the moment for obvious reasons; it's never fun to tune in to watch your team lose night in and night out. But something that's even more troubling is an issue that has been plaguing the O's for more than a decade: They still aren't developing their young talent.

Let's take a look at O's players 27 years old and younger and how they're doing. Sure, 27 seems like an arbitrary number and isn't necessarily "young," but it's my list. Here they are, with hitters listed first, then pitchers.

Adam Jones: .283/.326/.457. Jones, who turns 26 on August 1, was having a very good season a few weeks ago before he started to slump a bit and his numbers took a tumble. Still, his numbers are still up slightly and he's on pace to have his best season in Baltimore. It's somewhat concerning that FanGraphs doesn't rate his defense very highly, and the same is true this season. I've wondered why Jones seems to make several fantastic, flashy plays but tends to have a few defensive lapses here and there and not always make the routine plays. I still think he's a pretty good center fielder, but he just may not be an elite one. The same can be said of his skills at the plate; he's not necessarily going to be an elite hitter, but he can be a productive hitter who isn't batting at the top of the lineup. Jones hasn't developed (yet) into a star, per se, but he's still one of the best young players the O's have.

Matt Wieters: .269/.319/.413. The 25-year-old Wieters, the lone O's All-Star this season, still seems to make many people angry because he's not hitting like Joe Mauer. Because of his pre-O's hype, many expected him to completely alter the entire franchise with his amazing abilities. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened, but he's still an intriguing piece. Thanks to his .288/.340/.412 batting line in 385 plate appearances in his rookie year (2009), Wieters probably set the bar a little too high, too early. He hasn't been able to hit for that average or get on base that often since then, but he is hitting for as much power this season and has shown signs that he may be able to hit for even more. It is surprising that with his eye at the plate he doesn't walk more (6.7 BB% this season) -- though he did walk three times last night. While he still has work to do at the plate, Wieters has developed into one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball. He's caught 24 of 54 runners (44.4 percent stolen base percentage), far and away the best among all qualified MLB catchers. (The next closest is Alex Avila, at 36.9 percent.) FanGraphs rates his defense the highest among all catchers as well, which is also a top reason why he's leading the O's with a WAR of 2.3.

Nick Markakis: .293/.339/.385. Markakis, 27, has been on fire over the last few weeks and has turned his season around. He's still not walking a ton or hitting for a whole lot of power, but he's been much better lately. Check out my recent post on Markakis for more analysis.

Nolan Reimold: .271/.362/.492. Reimold turns 28 in October, and the O's still have no idea if he's an everyday player or not. Buck Showalter obviously doesn't think too highly of him or else he wouldn't be mostly benching Reimold when a lefty isn't on the mound or pinch-hitting Felix Pie for him. I've written about Reimold plenty lately, so I don't have much more to say. But I will add this: I don't have much faith in the O's playing well in the second half of the season, but I do hope they give Reimold, and maybe some other younger players in Triple-A, some playing time that's being wasted on guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee.

Mark Reynolds: .230/.350/.504. Like Markakis, Reynolds, who turns 28 in August, has turned it on lately and has been hitting the cover off the ball. Unlike Markakis, many of those hits have been home runs. I'm not sure if he's quite this good or not, but he's hitting for a lot of power and is getting on base. He also walks much more than anyone on the team, another valuable skill. Under Reynolds's current contract, he's due to make $7.5 million next season and has a club option for $11 million (with a $0.5 million buyout). Compared with someone like J.J. Hardy, who will likely be looking to cash in as a free agent, Reynolds is still under team control for at least one more season. There's value in that, especially if the O's want to deal him before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Reynolds has been an absolutely terrible defender at third base this year, and he'll probably need to be moved to either 1B or DH. If the O's had a better option at third, it's possible that Reynolds would have already been moved across the infield to play first. But they don't, and that may play a part in the O's holding onto Reynolds instead of dealing him.

Felix Pie: .231/.244/.282. Pie, 26, probably isn't anything better than a fourth outfielder (if that). Sure, he doesn't receive consistent playing time, but he's never really showed the ability to hit or get on base. He has some value as a defensive replacement and a runner, but that's about it. Sorry, Felix.

Zach Britton: 3.47 ERA, 3.82 xFIP. At 23, Britton has taken over the role as the most promising pitcher on the O's roster. Britton has already thrown over 100 innings, so it's probable that the O's will limit the rookie's workload in the second half of the season. With the way the other young starters have pitched, Britton and Jeremy Guthrie are basically carrying the load right now. Britton (1.7) is second in WAR among all rookie pitchers behind Michael Pineda of the Mariners (2.5). Not bad at all.

Brian Matusz: 8.77 ERA, 5.06 xFIP. Matusz (24) is supposed to be in the O's rotation right now, providing another reliable starting option. Instead, he's back in Triple-A Norfolk after a frustrating, awful return from the disabled list. Much has been written about Matusz's reduced velocity, and it's possible that he's still hurt. But if he never recovers that velocity, he'll have to learn to pitch a new way. It won't be easy, but Matusz still has the secondary stuff to be an effective starter even without that low-90s fastball.

Jake Arrieta: 4.90 ERA, 4.33 xFIP. Like Matusz, the 25-year-old Arrieta has disappointed (though not as much). The frustrating thing about Arrieta is that he has the stuff to be effective, but he can't seem to find the strike zone consistently. He's walking 4.44 batters per nine, which is way too many. He walked four again last night in an ineffective outing against the Red Sox. And there's also a concern that Arrieta may have some kind of elbow injury. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.

Chris Tillman: 4.69 ERA, 4.86 xFIP. There's not a whole lot to say about Tillman (23) right now. Tillman received 10 starts at the beginning of the season, and he pitched OK at times. His big issue, though, was his inability to stock around past the fifth inning, because he tends to throw lots of pitches each inning. When he was demoted, instead of returning to Norfolk and dominating Triple-A hitters in an effort to get back to Baltimore, he's still struggling, walking too many batters and not striking out enough either. I'll be surprised if he doesn't return to the O's at some point later in the season, but he has plenty left to prove. It's also worth mentioning that he's about four months younger than Britton.

Brason Berkensen: 5.90 ERA, 4.06 xFIP; 5.92 ERA, 4.39 xFIP. Jason Berken (27) and Brad Bergesen (turns 26 in September) aren't quite the same -- Bergesen is younger and probably a little better -- but I'm lumping them together because they're both pitching out of the bullpen and haven't been very good. Both have pitched well at times this year, but they're essentially the mop-up crew now (you could add Alfredo Simon to that group, too). Whenever the O's are down by more than a few runs, one of them is usually the guy the O's turn to to get through the next few innings. Sure, there's value in that if it's done properly, but I have a hard time believing that either guy will ever be effective over an entire season (especially in the AL East).

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There's also a few guys in Norfolk -- Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell, Ryan Adams, Troy Patton, Matt Angle -- who have some promise, but that's not much to choose from. The goal all along was for the guys above to take the next step (or several steps) forward, but only a few have really done that.

O's hold on for 3-1 win over Rays

After a relatively stress-free opening day win over the Rays yesterday (thanks to Jeremy Guthrie's outstanding pitching performance), the Orioles survived a potential game-winning (or at least tying) hit because of a spectacular game-saving catch by Nick Markakis.

With the O's leading 3-1, the Rays had runners on first and second with two outs in the ninth. Ben Zobrist hit a deep fly ball to right field, but Markakis -- and his glove -- seemingly appeared out of nowhere to snatch the ball before it hit the wall. Markakis then smashed into the wall and took a moment or two before revealing to the umpires that yes, he did in fact make the catch. Thanks to Markakis, Brian Roberts's three-run homer in the eighth inning, and a solid start by Chris Tillman, the O's move to 2-0.

Tillman threw six no-hit, shutout innings in place of the now-injured Brian Matusz. Tillman was, in a sense, wildly effective (three walks), but he also struck out five and kept hitters off balance with a powerful fastball and filthy change-up.

After Tillman left the scoreless game, Jeremy Accardo took over and retired the first two batters he faced. Then, though, things got a little dicey. B.J. Upton singled and stole second, and Matt Joyce was walked intentionally. Kelly Shoppach followed with a single to left field. But Felix Pie, who had just entered the game as a pinch-runner for Luke Scott that same inning, threw a bullet to Matt Wieters to nail Upton at home. Wieters blocked the plate brilliantly and applied the tag on Upton in time, keeping the game tied.

The next inning, despite leading 3-0 after the Roberts home run, the bullpen continued to live dangerously. Mike Gonzalez relieved Accardo and walked consecutive batters before retiring Johnny Damon. Koji Uehara then came in and got the final two outs of the inning, but not before allowing an RBI single to Manny Ramirez. Still, at least Uehara pounded the strike zone -- seven of his eight pitches were strikes.

Holding that 3-1 lead in the ninth, Kevin Gregg was sent in to get the save. Upton led off with a single, and then Joyce grounded into a fielder's choice (which sure looked like a double play on replay). Gregg then walked Shoppach before getting a strike out and the huge defensive play by Markakis to end the game.

I'm going to preface what I'm about to say with this: Yes, it was just one game, and there's no sense in overreacting, especially since the O's did win. Fans know what they're going to get out of Gregg. He's never been a shut-down closer/reliever, and he's going to have some roller-coaster saves, along with some blown saves as well. That's who he is. As for Gonzalez, though, he started last season out on a rocky note, blowing two saves in his first three appearances with the O's. The O's are desperately going to need him to be effective, particularly if he's going to be the only left-handed reliever in the bullpen (which I don't think will last very long, for what it's worth). Gonzalez deserves the opportunity to overcome a bad outing or two, as do most of the players since the season just started. But if he keeps having difficulty throwing strikes and handing out free passes to opposing hitters, the bullpen as a collective unit is in trouble.

Sorry for the negative spiel after such an exciting win. The starting pitching and defense to start the season have been great, and I'm definitely looking forward to watching Zach Britton make his major league debut tomorrow.

Jake Fox breaks 'unwritten rule,' angers both managers

In yesterday's 14-9 win over the Tigers, Jake Fox hit his 10th home run -- the most in the Grapefruit League. Unfortunately, he got a little greedy late in the game and angered both managers -- the Tigers' Jim Leyland and the O's own Buck Showalter -- with a single swing.

Here's what happened, via Jeff Zrebiec:

The Orioles had runners on second and third and no outs in the eighth inning today when Fox came to the plate against Tigers minor leaguer Chance Ruffin. The most important aspect of this story is the score was 13-3 at the time, and both teams had subbed out most of their regulars. Ruffin started the at-bat with three straight balls, but Fox decided to take a rip at a 3-0 pitch in a clear take situation.

It certainly qualified as a breach of baseball etiquette. Swinging 3-0 in a 10-run game with no outs in the eighth inning with a minor league pitcher on the mound is a decent way to make sure you get a fastball in the ribs in your next at-bat. The average fan may not think it was a big deal but Orioles manager Buck Showalter and Tigers manager Jim Leyland certainly did.

Showalter angrily yanked off his hat, and was seen yelling in the home dugout to anyone in particular. His hat off the whole time, he kept shaking his head and muttering throughout the rest of Fox's at-bat, which resulted in a walk Leyland, meanwhile, yelled at Fox from the top step of the dugout.

When Fox was removed for a pinch runner, Showalter made sure that he was one of the first people to meet him in the dugout and he gave him an earful. The Orioles manager was still fuming about it after the game as it apparently wasn't the first time this spring where Fox ignored a clear take situation.

Fox is presumably going to make the opening day roster because of his fantastic hitting in spring training, so it's a little early to overreact about a few instances in which Fox should have kept the bat on his shoulder. However, Fox is mainly going to be a reserve (barring injury), and if he's irritating his manager with similar antics during the season, he may not be around for very long.

Then again, if he hits like he currently is in spring training when he fills in for Matt Wieters or whomever, I have a feeling that Showalter will overlook an inopportune, mammoth swing here or there.

O's links: Wieters, Rosenthal, and Reynolds

So the Orioles have won their first three spring training games, which doesn't really matter a whole lot, but is still better than losing all three, I guess. Still, the team's offseason moves have received more attention this year, and it doesn't seem like the O's are being completely ignored as in years past.

Here are a few links from yesterday examining various O's questions and concerns for the next season and future ones as well.

- Heath of Dempsey's Army took issue with an article on Baseball Prospectus listing the most disappointing prospects of all time. On that list was a certain 24-year-old O's catcher: Matt Wieters. Heath disputed Wieters's placement on the list, saying:

Some of the best hitting catchers in recent memory did not even debut until after their age 24 season. Piazza doesn't really count; he got a cup of coffee when he was 23 but at 24, he put up a monster season and took Rookie of the Year. But Jorge Posada? He only had 15 MLB at bats at 24. Victor Martinez had just 61 games and an 87 OPS+. Chris Hoiles had only 6 games under his belt.

Sure, it would have been great if Wieters had hit the ground running like Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk or Joe Mauer. But catchers typically take awhile longer to develop offensively in the majors. They just do. That's why the Nationals moved Bryce Harper to the outfield and the Royals have moved top prospect Wil Myers from behind the plate. They value their bats more than their catching skills and they know the position will slow their development at the plate.

That's just one part of his analysis; you should check out the rest of the piece as well.

- Rob Neyer of SB Nation read Heath's post and tends to agree with him. Here is his succinct offering:

"Disappointing" is highly subjective. The Baseball Prospectus crew is naturally disappointed in Wieters, considering they basically anointed him the new Johnny Bench two years ago. But as Dempsey's Army demonstrates, in terms of 24-year-old catchers he's done just fine and still figures to have a solid career. If not better.

That's essentially what my opinion is. It's hard not to be a little disappointed with Wieters's production -- particularly at the plate -- so far, but he's still pretty young and brings a lot to the table in terms of defense and controlling the running game. He still has time to improve, and I think he'll be fine.

- Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal also wrote about the O's, and he chose to focus on the current state of the organization's farm system. Here's some of what he had to say:

MacPhail has made some excellent trades, getting a bounty for lefty Erik Bedard in February 2008 and obtaining third baseman Josh Bell for lefty George Sherrill in July 2009. But the Orioles rarely draw much from the minor-league free-agent market and lack the creativity of teams such as the Rays and Jays.

No doubt, the franchise is in a much better place than it was a year ago. But rival executives often refer to the Orioles as a sleeping giant, and the description still applies.

For the Orioles to regain their footing, their farm system needs to gush with talent, not offer dribs and drabs. Right now, in the area that matters most, the O’s aren’t good enough.

I don't think anyone would argue that the O's don't need to keep improving the level of talent in the farm system. In that sense, Rosenthal is right. And his criticism of the team's lack of international scouting has been repeatedly questioned by other baseball writers and analysts, including Keith Law. To keep pace with the Yankees and Red Sox, and really, the entire AL East, the O's need to keep adding young talent through whatever means necessary.

- Kevin Kaduk of Big League Stew interviewed Mark Reynolds, and while there's not much quote-worthy material, it's a good read.

- Kaduk spent some time at the O's new facility in Sarasota, Ed Smith Stadium. After $31 million in renovations, Kaduk has plenty of nice things to say about the place, which, as the title suggests, has been turned "from pit to palace." He also provided several photos of the renovations and upgrades. Really, the place looks fantastic.

- Since yesterday must have been focus on the O's day at Big League Stew, Kaduk also quickly summarized the team's offseason acquisitions and departures and raised five crucial questions. Here's the question that I found must interesting:

3. How much of a difference will a full season of Buck Showalter make? The most repeated stat about the Orioles this offseason has been 34-23, which was Baltimore's record after Showalter took over at Camden Yards in 2010. It was a nice run to be sure, but the implication — however serious — that the O's could have played at that clip with last year's collection of talent is misguided.

That said, it'll be interesting to see what Showalter does with this team, which is a hodgepodge of not-fully-realized talent and veteran guys who have been there before. He'll really earn his stripes if he can coax an above-average performance out of a pitching staff that ranks the weakest in the division.

Showalter's biggest hurdle will be to get more production out of guys like Wieters, Adam Jones, Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman (if he's on the roster), and other youngsters making the transition from minor leaguer to full-time MLB regular. If he can do that, the O's should improve mightily.

With Lee on board, O's infield makeover is complete

When the Orioles signed Derrek Lee to a one-year deal worth about $8-$10 million, they fortified the right side of the infield (along with Brian Roberts) and completed an obvious offseason goal of improving the entire infield. Along with signing Lee, the O's traded for Mark Reynolds to fill the hole at third base, acquired shortstop J.J. Hardy from the Twins (and infielder Brendan Harris), and re-signed Cesar Izturis to fill a utility role.

With all of those guys on board, the O's will likely have an Opening Day infield that looks like this:

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Derrek Lee
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Mark Reynolds

Not too shabby. And when comparing that to last year's Opening Day infield arrangement, it looks even better:

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Garrett Atkins
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Cesar Izturis
3B: Miguel Tejada

2011's infield is clearly better, but let's examine the offensive abilities of the two (excluding Wieters and Roberts, since their presence doesn't change):

Player	2010 OBP	Career OBP	2010 SLG	Career SLG
Atkins	.276	.350	.286	.449
Izturis	.277	.296	.268	.323
Tejada	.312	.339	.381	.462

Player	2010 OBP	Career OBP	2010 SLG	Career SLG
Lee	.347	.367	.428	.498
Hardy	.320	.323	.394	.423
Reynolds	.320	.334	.433	.483

There is only one place where a player in the first table outperforms someone in the second table: Tejada's career on-base percentage is five points higher than Reynolds's OBP. That's it. Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds are clearly better offensively across the board, and they're all, at the very least, minor defensive upgrades at their respective positions as well. Also, Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds have an average age of 30, while Atkins, Izturis, and Tejada had an average age of about 31-32, so the O's got a little younger while also strengthening three positions.

It would be hard to classify any of the moves as long-term solutions, and Reynolds may end up as the only one still in Baltimore after the 2011 season. Still, the moves make the O's better, and because the O's don't have a bunch of infield prospects knocking on the door to the big leagues, they're not blocking any almost-ready minor leaguers either. It's hard to ask for more than that.

Matt Wieters: a work in progress

The topic of Matt Wieters is a divisive issue for many Orioles fans (and non-O's fans too). Usually, most people end up on either one side of the Wieters discussion or the other -- either he's going to be great for a long time, or he's never going to pan out as a top prospect and dominate at the major league level. But his talent is evident, and even though he took a few steps back at the plate this year, he still improved in a few categories that suggest that he'll be able to turn things around next season.

I've already written about Wieters a few times -- once in May and once in early August. Wieters looked like he was turning things around in August when he raised his batting line to .253/.330/.380, but his numbers dipped toward the end of the season, and he ended up with a line of .249/.319/.377 and a .303 wOBA (weighted on base average). Frankly, that's just not very good.

Still, something that was consistent for Wieters throughout the season was his improvement at the plate with walks and strikeouts, i.e., he walked more and struck out less than in his rookie season.

2009 BB%: 7.3%
2010 BB%: 9.4%

2009 K%: 24.3%
2010 K%: 21.1%

Unfortunately, returning to three trouble areas -- hitting the ball hard, hitting too many ground balls, and hitting fastballs effectively -- I used in the two previous Wieters articles suggests that he still has work left to do:

1) Hitting the ball hard

2009: 18.5 LD%
2010: 15.4 LD%

2) Ground balls

2009: 41.9 GB%
2010: 46.4 GB%

3) Fastballs

2009: 6.6 runs above average
2010: -1.3 runs above average

So Wieters didn't hit nearly enough line drives, which also helps explain his drop in BABIP from .356 to .287, hit too many ground balls for someone his size (and lack of speed), and struggled slightly with fastballs, though he did get much better from August (-5.0) to the end of the season. These are categories that Wieters absolutely needs to address and improve on.

Also, despite his walks increase and strikeouts decrease, plate discipline still may be an issue, or at least something that he still needs to work at. This season, he swung at more pitches out of the zone (29.9% from 25.7%), fewer pitches inside the zone (61.0% from 70.2%), and swung at fewer pitches overall (43.5% from 47.2%). He made better contact on pitches both inside and outside the zone, but his knack for expanding the strike zone likely hurt his numbers.

It's worth noting that Wieters was still valuable last season, mainly because of his defense behind the plate. Though I have no idea how FanGraphs accounts for catching defense, in 2009 Wieters was -2.0 fielding runs above average, and that number jumped to 5.0 fielding runs above average this season. That mostly contributed to his value, which according to FanGraphs, was 2.4 wins above replacement. And out of all AL catchers, Wieters finished tied with Jorge Posada in WAR -- good enough for sixth place. If he starts hitting the ball, he will undoubtedly climb that list and his value will grow.

I think Wieters is going to have a big season in 2011. He may have taken a step back in overall numbers in 2010, but I think he'll start to put everything together shortly. He already has a ton of pressure on his shoulders, but he looked much more comfortable behind the plate -- and that's something I think will translate to his at-the-plate skills next season. He may have expanded the zone a little too much -- maybe he was trying to drive in runs on pitches that maybe he should have been taking -- but he still walked more and struck out less, something that suggests at least some amount of progress.

The next step for Wieters is to start driving the ball and hitting the ball harder. He already possesses that power, and he can also hit the ball to all fields. Basically, it's time for Wieters to transform into a power hitter. Many people thought Nick Markakis was progressing into one, but now he's essentially a doubles hitter who also uses the entire field. And that's not a bad thing, but Markakis just doesn't hit for enough power to be an elite hitter. But not only does Wieters have that power and skill set, but he can also give the Orioles that power from behind the plate, making it even more valuable. (I'm trying really hard not to blame Terry Crowley in this paragraph, but his presence as hitting coach in all of this is some food for thought.)

I've also been trying not to make excuses for Wieters, just note that the talent is there and that he still can put everything together. Next season, which will be his third, would be an outstanding time for him to make that jump.

O's beat Red Sox again

Trailing 1-0 going into the top of the sixth, the Orioles scored nine unanswered runs in four innings and defeated the Red Sox, 9-1. Brad Bergesen got his eighth win on the season, and while he wasn't spectacular by any stretch of the imagination -- 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 2 K -- he still got through six innings and only gave up one run. He then handed the ball off to the O's bullpen, who pitched three scoreless innings.

Ty Wigginton and Adam Jones, both with three hits, led the way on offense. Wigginton hit a three-run home run in the seventh inning, and Jones had a double. Wigginton also drew a walk. Nick Markakis added two hits, both singles, and Brian Roberts, Luke Scott, Matt Wieters (double), Felix Pie (triple), and Cesar Izturis each had one hit apiece. Roberts also walked twice. Altogether, the O's accumulated 13 hits and three walks.

To make matters worse (for Red Sox fans) and better (for O's fans), the O's tacked on four runs to their 5-1 lead in the ninth off of Jonathan Papelbon. Here's how that inning started, courtesy of ESPN's play-by-play:

B Roberts singled to center.
N Markakis singled to left center, B Roberts to second.
T Wigginton reached on infield single to third, B Roberts to third, N Markakis to second, B Roberts scored, N Markakis to third, T Wigginton to second on throwing error by third baseman A Beltre.
L Scott singled to left, N Markakis scored, T Wigginton to third.
T Wigginton scored, L Scott to second on wild pitch by J Papelbon.

The O's also added their ninth run in that inning on a ground out by Pie.

The O's go for the sweep tonight with Kevin Millwood on the mound; the Red Sox will counter with John Lackey. A win would give the O's a 10-8 record against the Red Sox this season.

O's top Dice-K, Red Sox

The Orioles scored four runs off of Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Brian Matusz and the bullpen held the Red Sox to just two runs on five hits in a 4-2 O's win. Matusz didn't get the win and only pitched five innings because of a high pitch count -- he walked three and finished with 102 pitches -- but he also struck out four and gave up only one run on three hits. That's not the most effective start, but it worked.

David Hernandez got the win, allowing one run in two innings, and Jim Johnson and Koji Uehara each threw a scoreless inning. Uehara also earned his 10th save.

Nick Markakis and Luke Scott each had two hits and a walk. Both of Markakis's hits were doubles. Brian Roberts had a single and two walks, and Felix Pie, Cesar Izturis, and Josh Bell each singled. Matt Wieters went hitless but did draw a walk.

With the win, the O's pull to 8-8 on the season against the Red Sox, a monumental accomplishment considering how poorly the O's have played against not only the Red Sox in the last few seasons, but also the entire AL East. Here are the O's records against Boston since 2005:

2005: 8-10
2006: 3-15
2007: 6-12
2008: 6-12
2009: 2-16

Sure, the Red Sox are down this year, but they're still 83-67, which would be good enough to compete in most divisions that don't also include the Yankees and the Rays -- and another .500 team, the Blue Jays (currently 75-74).

At 60-90 after last night's win, the O's have 12 games left: two more in Boston, three in Toronto, three in Tampa Bay, and four at home against the Tigers. If the O's can win just three of those, they'll avoid 100 losses, which is pretty impressive considering how awful things were going a couple months ago. By the way, the O's are now 28-17 since Buck Showalter took over.

And for what it's worth, the O's are now just two games back of the Nationals (62-88).

O's win again

Jake Arrieta pitched six scoreless innings, and the O's offense finally broke through for a bunch of runs in an 11-3 win over the Blue Jays. Leading 3-0, the O's tacked on six runs in the seventh and two more in the eighth to put the game away for good. Overall, the O's pounded out 16 hits, including three doubles and two homers, and five walks. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones had the home runs, and Robert Andino, Markakis, Ty Wigginton, Felix Pie, Matt Wieters, and Jones all had multi-hit games. Also, every Orioles starter recorded a hit.

Arrieta was more than solid enough to earn the win, allowing just four hits. He also walked only one batter while striking out five. He hasn't walked more than one batter in a start since August 26, which spans only three starts, but that's still some progress considering he has 52 strikeouts and 48 walks on the season.

The O's are now 8-5 in September and 25-15 overall under Buck Showalter. They're also 8-2 in their last 10 games and could have won all 10 if not for the bullpen blowing two leads late in games. And for whatever the reason, the O's have won a lot more and been much more enjoyable to watch under Showalter. Hopefully that doesn't end and provides a nice lead-in for next season.

A few other notes:

- Since the All-Star break, Wieters is hitting .286/.357/.474 with five home runs. He's also walked 17 times and struck out only 21 times.

- Also, since the All-Star break, Jones is hitting .301/.376/.446 with four home runs. In those 45 games, he's also three walked more times (13) than he did in 87 games before the break (10).

- Here is the O's pitching staff ERA by month:

March/April: 4.62
May: 4.68
June: 5.72
July: 5.60
August: 3.38
September (so far): 4.07

Have they gotten a little lucky? Probably. But starters are throwing more innings and giving the bullpen leads to protect -- and fewer innings to throw.

- Brian Matusz, who had to leave the game on Monday after just one inning because of a line drive that struck his left triceps, may have been robbed of a chance to improve his Rookie of the Year chances. Matusz has more than held his own in his rookie season and has thrown a lot of innings, but there's a strong chance that the O's will hold Matusz out of his next start if he's not 100 percent healthy -- as they should. Unfortunately for Matusz, Austin Jackson continues to hit and still seems like the top ROY choice in the American League.

Wieters on the rise

Matt Wieters (.253/.330/.380) still doesn't have great numbers. He only has eight home runs, and for much of this season has seemed like a singles hitter who hasn't taken advantage of his raw power.

But after a decent month of July and three-hit game last night, Wieters's numbers are starting to look better. On July 1, Wieters had a batting line of .238/.308/.343, which is really bad. Since then he's improved his OPS by 60 points (from .650 to .710), though he only hit two home runs in July (both on July 26 against the Blue Jays).

But the strongest sign of Wieters's improvement at the plate seems to be his plate discipline. Sure, it's a small sample size, but since July 1, Wieters has struck out just three times while walking nine times. Considering that in June, for example, he struck out 18 times while walking seven times, that's a solid reversal.

In a post I wrote about Wieters in May, I noted that, despite his struggles, he was still walking more and striking out less. His numbers at the time were: 8.2 BB% and 22.4 K%. Right now, those numbers are even better: 10.1 BB% and 20.5 K%. It sure seems like Wieters has made some necessary adjustments.

Let's see how he's doing in three other trouble areas from before:

1) Hitting the ball hard

May: 16.5 LD%
Now: 17.2 LD%

2) Ground balls

May: 49.6 GB%
Now: 46.1 GB%

3) Fastballs

May: -2.3 runs above average
Now: -5.0 runs above average

To summarize -- again, noting the small sample size -- Wieters has been hitting the ball harder, hitting fewer ground balls, but has still been struggling with fastballs. However, he has been better at hitting curveballs, cutters, sliders, and changeups. He's also been swinging at more pitches in the zone (up to 59.4%).

There's no question that Wieters still has more work to do, especially when it comes to hitting for more power, but he is getting better. It wasn't time to give up on him before, and that's certainly not the case now.

Guthrie's strong start earns Showalter a win in O's debut

Jeremy Guthrie gave up three runs in seven innings and the O's offense woke up in the sixth inning to score four runs in a 6-3 win over the Angels in Buck Showalter's first game as the team's new manager.

Guthrie served up a two-run homer to Howie Kendrick in the fifth, but he allowed just five hits while striking out two and walking none. Since giving up four runs in 4.2 innings against the Rangers on July 8, Guthrie has been on a roll, allowing just seven combined runs in his last four starts -- a span of 27.2 innings. During that stretch, Guthrie has walked only two batters while striking out 17. His recent improved pitching has also lowered his ERA from 4.77 to 4.21.

On offense, Luke Scott hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning; he also had a double. Matt Wieters, though, may have had the best offensive performance of the night for the O's, finishing 3-3 with a double, two runs batted in, and a run scored. He also walked, allowing him to reach base four times. Felix Pie went 2-3 with two singles; Adam Jones singled and walked; and Josh Bell added a two-run double. Ty Wigginton went 0-2 but did walk twice. At the top of the lineup, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis combined to go 0-8, yet the offense still scored six runs -- not bad, I guess.

As for the Showalter factor, the lineup was pretty much the same, and most things were done by the book. However, he did use the bullpen a little differently and showed some outside-the-box thinking. Here's Dan Connolly explaining the situation:

What interested me most was watching Showalter manage. During the past month, I’ve talked to a bunch of people who have worked under Showalter, and they have all spoken about his preparedness and how he puts his players in a situation to win.

And so I was intrigued by his first real piece of managing: in the ninth inning Tuesday with the Orioles up 6-3. Lefty Michael Gonzalez had already pitched one scoreless inning, and Showalter summoned him to pitch again in the ninth – even though it was a save situation and closer Alfredo Simon was warming up.

Go by the book, and bring in your closer. That’s what every manager I have ever covered would have done. But Showalter left Gonzalez in to face lefty Hideki Matsui, who struck out. Then Showalter stuck with Gonzalez to turn around switch-hitter Alberto Callaspo, and he grounded out.

With one out needed, Showalter called for Simon, even though it was no longer a save situation for the O’s closer. And Simon struck out Howie Kendrick.

Asked about the moves after the game, Showalter said: “The matchup was a lot better. Gonzo, I’ve been watching him throw the ball and talking to [pitching coach Rick Kranitz] and some of the guys. And I liked the switch-hitters turned around. The tough call was Hunter [in the eighth with one on and two outs]. That’s a tie ballgame at worst, though, and we like our chances at home with the last at-bat. Take our chances.”

That’s a guy who is not managing scared.

He followed that up with his best line of the day: “Believe me, I know the save rule and, quite frankly, it doesn’t carry much weight with me. I like the win rule a little bit better.”

Apologies for the long quote, but that's some intriguing stuff right there. I'm all for managers going against the typical bullpen philosophy of simply bringing in the closer in the ninth for a potential save. Now, I'm not a fan of leaving relievers such as Mike Gonzalez in for more than one inning, but Showalter recognized that Gonzalez has been throwing well lately and stuck with the hot hand rather than simply summoning Alfredo Simon in the ninth.

Could the move have backfired? Sure, anything's possible against the Orioles. But the move worked, and that's something that has been hard enough for the O's to find for a long time. I'm not ready to pronounce Showalter the greatest manager ever or anything because of the move, but I am ready to see what he has in store for this team.

O's links: Roberts, Gonzalez, Jones's bubbles

After a 5-4 loss to the Rays yesterday, the Orioles are 30-64. But it's an exciting 30-64! OK, maybe not, but here are some links to keep you occupied:

• Brian Roberts could be back in an O's uniform as early as this weekend. [Orioles.com]
• Michael Gonzalez has been activated from the 60-day DL and will probably be eased back into the closer's role. [Baltimore Sun]
• Something about defending Adam Jones for chewing lots of gum and blowing bubbles during the game. Cowherd's right, it's not really a big deal. Granted, I don't listen to Baltimore sports radio talk or read many O's message boards, but I've never heard anyone complain about Jones's bubble blowing before. I've never even heard Jim Palmer criticize Jones for it. It's more of a, "Hey, Jones caught that ball and blew a bubble at the same time. That was pretty cool." [Kevin Cowherd]
• When Chris Tillman returns from Norfolk, he needs to attack the zone. [Dempsey's Army]
• It wouldn't make much sense to send Brian Matusz to the minors. [Camden Crazies]
• In Dave Cameron's annual Top 50 Trade Value series, two O's made the list: Matt Wieters at No. 33 and Brian Matusz at No. 44. No Julio Lugo for some reason. [FanGraphs]

Showalter expected to be named O's manager

According to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse (via HardballTalk), Buck Showalter will likely begin his tenure as the next O's manager this weekend.

Not knowing a whole lot about Showalter, I went to Baseball-Reference to hopefully get an idea about his previous coaching results. In head coaching stints with three teams -- the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and the Rangers -- Showalter has a career record of 882-833. He's also been named AL manager of the year twice: in 1994 with the Yankees and 2004 with the Rangers.

One of the strangest things about Showalter's managerial career -- and this is also mentioned on his Wikipedia page -- is that the Yankees (in 1996) and the Diamondbacks (in 2001) both won the World Series the year after he was fired. Showalter also very nearly was fired three times while still having winning records: 79-65 (1994), 85-77 (2000), and 80-82 (2006). Close, but no cigar.

Showalter is an interesting choice for the Orioles, and arguably his most important task will be to get more production out of the team's younger players. Highly regarded prospects like Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and others have shown promise and seemingly have the talent to produce at the Major League level, but they haven't been able to put all of the pieces together yet. Maybe Showalter, who himself moved up the coaching ranks in the minor leagues before becoming the head coach of the Yankees, will do a better job of helping them get to the next level.

By the way, in case you're wondering, Showalter is definitely an old-school type manager. Just check out this 1994 article in The New York Times about Showalter's criticism of that young hotshot Ken Griffey Jr.:

It's not Mariners versus Yankees in Seattle this weekend so much as Griffey versus Showalter, perhaps the game's premier player against one of its brightest young managers in a lively discourse on the merits of respecting the game.

"I shouldn't say this publicly," Showalter was quoted as saying in the magazine story, "but a guy like Ken Griffey Jr., the game's boring to him. He comes on the field, and his hat's on backward, and his shirttail's hanging out."

He also made pointed comments about San Francisco's Barry Bonds, saying that at last year's All-Star Game Bonds failed to tuck in his shirt until game time.

"To me, that's a lack of respect for the game," Showalter said. "Maybe I'm being too picky on these guys. I'm starting to say things like, 'Back when I played.' I thought I'd never say those words."

So even if Showalter can't get the O's to improve much on the field, at least fans won't have to worry about any untucked shirts or caps being worn backwards.

Time to worry about Wieters?

There's a small contingent of Orioles fans out there who are more than a little concerned about the young career of Matt Wieters. You may not have heard much from them and there may not be many of them yet, but I guarantee they're out there. Maybe you've overheard a few people at an O's game, or maybe you've heard an oddball caller or two on a sports talk radio show.

Has Wieters lived up to the hype yet? Well, no, he hasn't. But there aren't exactly that many Jason Heywards out there who can just start raking from day one. Apparently many people were expecting Wieters to not just be Joe Mauer, but to be Joe Mauer from the start.

Here's a newsflash: Wieters isn't Mauer. Not only is Mauer the best catcher in the game today, but, barring injury, he'll probably go down as one of the best catchers of all time. Does Wieters have the skills to one day be named with some of the best to ever play the position? Definitely, but he only recently just turned 24 and has yet to play an entire season in the big leagues.

It's OK to be a little frustrated with Wieters's early struggles at the plate. All O's fans want him to dominate. But it's not OK to fail to recognize that early career struggles are pretty normal, especially for a young guy behind the plate. And, for what it's worth, Wieters has grown defensively, demonstrating improved mechanics that have led to him throwing out a higher percentage of runners.

With that out of the way, let's go to the numbers. (In 2009, Wieters played in 93 games; so far this year, he's played in 43.)

2009: .288/.340/.412, 9 HR
2010: .256/.318/.365, 4 HR

So, quickly, he's not getting on base or driving the ball as much (so far) as he did in his rookie season. That could mean that he's maybe walking less or striking out more, right? Not true.

2009: 7.3 BB%, 24.3 K%
2010: 8.2 BB%, 22.4 K%

Those aren't necessarily huge changes, but they are productive ones. Oddly enough, he's walking more and striking out less despite expanding the zone a little: He's swinging at 28.1% of pitches outside the zone (compared to 25.4% in last season). A few other good things: Wieters is making more contact with pitches inside the zone (90.6% from 83.7%), pitches outside the zone (63.8% from 61.2%), and, because of that, he has a higher overall contact percentage (81.1% from 77.5%).

Unfortunately, though, as you can tell by the numbers listed first, Wieters has struggled a bit to take advantage of striking out less, walking more, and making better contact. Why?

Reason #1: He's not hitting the ball as hard.

His line drive percentage is down from 18.5% in 2009 to 16.5% this season, which has also played a significant factor in his high BABIP from last season (.356) dropping down to .308. In the minors, Wieters always had high BABIPs, but he was also hitting the ball extremely hard in every level. Maybe he's been a little unlucky (for him), but not abnormally so.

Reason #2: He's hitting more ground balls.

In 2009, Wieters's GB% was 41.9; right now, it's 49.6%. For a fast runner, this would be a good thing, as it's normally good for someone who's quick to keep the ball on the ground so he can use his legs. Well, Wieters is not a fast runner -- at all. He should be able to adjust and hit more line drives and balls in the gap, but right now he's rolling over on a lot of pitches.

Reason #3: He's struggled with fastballs.

It seems that one way pitchers have been attacking Wieters is to get ahead of him in the count and then make him chase fastballs up in the zone. Pitchers have been throwing him more first pitch strikes this season (up to 61.2% from 53.0%), and he generally hasn't been swinging at as many pitches in the strike zone to begin with (70.2% in 2009; 58.2% now). Anyway, that first sentence was just a guess, but he has struggled with fastballs overall. Last year, Wieters was 7.5 runs above average when it came to hitting fastballs. But so far, he's at -2.3 against fastballs. He has made progress, though, when it comes to hitting sliders, cutters, and changeups. He's struggled slightly more against curveballs -- but not much. Many young hitters gear up to hit the fastball but can't seem to fight off offspeed pitches. Wieters seems to have already made that adjustment, though he may have overcompensated.

Those are just three of the problems I noticed with Wieters (with the help of stats from FanGraphs, of course). The good news is that all of these things are fixable. Maybe he needs to attack some first pitches more often, and maybe he needs to swing at more pitches in the zone. Obviously, it's simple to just say that and much more difficult to accomplish such tasks.

The important thing is that Wieters has shown that he can improve and is willing to do so. With him getting consistent at bats, he should be able to make adjustments and learn what works best at the plate for him to maximize his offensive talents.

I think Wieters will turn things around, and I don't think it'll take too long for that to happen. But if they don't, there's going to be plenty of time to worry and complain then. I'm not worried now, and neither should you.

Another poor offensive performance, another loss

The Orioles (1-6) wasted another decent start by Jeremy Guthrie -- seven innings pitched, eight hits, three earned runs -- and dropped their fourth game in a row (all at home) after a 5-1 loss to the Rays. Matt Garza threw eight strong innings, giving up only one run, and earned his second victory over the Orioles in this young season.

Garza allowed just six hits, with the O's lone run coming on a leadoff home run by Felix Pie. The Orioles had a couple of chances to score -- in the second and seventh innings -- but again couldn't put together another hit or two to put more runs on the scoreboard.

With the O's ahead 1-0 in the second, Matt Wieters led off with an infield single, and Luke Scott followed with a single of his own to right field. Unfortunately, Garrett Atkins came up next and hit a ground ball right to the shortstop for a double play. And in a sentence that will probably be repeated numerous times this season, Julio Lugo then struck out to end the threat.

In the seventh (the Orioles are trailing 3-1 at this point), with one out and Scott on first after a walk, Atkins hit a shot into the left center field gap, but the ball was caught on an outstanding running play by Carl Crawford. So with two outs, Ty Wigginton, pinch-hitting for Lugo, hit a flare to short right field that fell in for a single. With runners on first and second with two outs, Nolan Reimold was sent to the plate to pinch-hit for Cesar Izturis -- makes sense, right? Reimold, though, never got a chance to swing the bat -- on a ball in the dirt that got away from the catcher for a moment, Wigginton took off for second. There was just one problem: Scott stayed put. Wigginton was easily caught in a rundown, ending yet another scoring opportunity. Who does Wigginton think he is? Melvin Mora?

Pie, as stated before, led the O's offense attack with his solo home run. He also singled and walked. Jones, Wieters, Scott, and Wigginton each had a hit, and Scott and Wieters both drew walks. Nick Markakis went 0-3 and is now hitting .143, but he did walk again. And Miguel Tejada went 0-4 and saw just nine pitches in those at bats -- not exactly the kind of performance the O's are looking for from their cleanup hitter.

The Orioles have now scored just 20 runs in seven games. Get well soon, Brian Roberts.

By the way, if the team's recent play isn't bad enough, the 9,129 fans in attendance at Camden Yards tonight broke the "record" for the smallest crowd in the stadium's 19 seasons. Awesome.