Playing without Markakis (again) will not be easy

Heading down the stretch, the Orioles could not afford to lose one of their best players. Nick Markakis is certainly one of those names. And now, for the second time this season, the O's will need to battle on without Markakis, who broke his left thumb courtesy of an errant fastball from CC Sabathia last night in a 5-4 win over the Yankees and is out for the rest of the regular season.

Markakis had already missed a portion of the season -- part of May, all of June, and some of July -- with a broken hamate bone in his right wrist. But when he returned, Buck Showalter decided to bat Markakis leadoff. And that decision has proved to be extremely wise: After returning, Markakis batted .335/.390/.489 in 54 games. For an O's lineup with the fourth-worst on-base percentage in the American League and that has been in the middle of the pack at scoring runs, losing Markakis really hurts. And let's not forget to mention the toughness of Markakis, who arguably returned a little too early from his right wrist injury but has still been raking ever since.

What should the O's do? There aren't many options. Nate McLouth could shift from left to right field, meaning a platoon of Lew Ford (against lefties) and Xavier Avery (against righties) could occupy left field. Chris Davis, Ryan Flaherty, Steve Tolleson, and Wilson Betemit have also played at least some outfield for the O's this season, though they're not really outfielders. But don't be surprised if one or more of them receive occasional playing time.

Unless the O's get extremely lucky and guys like Ford, Avery, and Davis, etc. play out of their minds for the next few weeks, replicating Markakis's bat will be nearly impossible. But they should be able to improve the outfield defense with Markakis out, especially with a McLouth/Jones/Avery outfield. Yes, Markakis won a Gold Glove in 2011, but a lot of that defensive value came from his arm (he had 14 assists). He's only had three assists in 2012, and he also hasn't looked as spry out there as he's looked in the past. McLouth, who's played a pretty good left field for the O's, has more speed and a decent arm, so he should be able to play a more than adequate right field.

I'm also interested to see who will bat first. Showalter typically alternates right- and left-handed batters in the lineup, but he may not have that luxury without Markakis, unless he simply plugs in Avery, which isn't all that likely. Avery, 22, had some bright spots in 25 games earlier this season, hitting .233/.317/.356, but pitchers seemed to figure him out the longer he played.

But maybe Avery will catch fire, or maybe someone else will. Unbelievably, the O's have a 78-61 record on September 9 and are tied with the Yankees for first place in the AL East. Their chances of making the playoffs without Markakis aren't promising, but, really, they've never looked good anyway. This team was never supposed to make it this far. And I'm not going to be the one to say they can't still somehow make it to the postseason. It won't be easy, but when was it supposed to be that way, especially for the O's?

O's surprisingly promote Manny Machado to Baltimore

After the Orioles completed their three-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners with a 9-2 win last night, I went to bed. So I missed the flood of stories around midnight saying the O's were calling up Manny Machado from Bowie to play third base for the major league club. Machado, 20, is considered the O's second-best prospect behind Dylan Bundy and is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.

Instead of making a major trade at the deadline, promoting Machado is arguably the biggest move the O's could have made (outside of promoting Bundy straight to Baltimore instead of to Bowie), and it's probably something that Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette have discussed before. Machado, who's hitting .266/.350/.431 at Bowie (and was named Eastern League Player of the Week just a couple days ago), has almost exclusively played shortstop in his time in the minors, but it wouldn't make much sense to move J.J. Hardy from the position, because even though he's not hitting all that well, he's still playing outstanding defense at the position. There's no guarantee that Machado would do the same, and it's unknown how long he'll be with the team. Still, the O's are promoting Machado for a reason: They think he's good enough right now, and at 60-51, they want him to help them win more games.

Buck Showalter echoed that sentiment in his comments after the game:

"If we can do something that makes us 2 inches better to have a chance to win the last 49 games, we’re going to do it." -Showalter postgame
— Brittany Ghiroli (@Britt_Ghiroli) August 9, 2012

So, will Machado help the team? If he plays every day, which he should if he's on the big league club, he'll be replacing the third base platoon of Wilson Betemit and Robert Andino. Betemit will likely still DH some and get occasional starts in the field to keep his bat in the lineup against right-handed pitching, but Andino will probably be relegated to more of a utility role since Omar Quintanilla has taken over the regular second base duties. Overall, Andino is hitting .227/.292/.318 and Betemit is batting .263/.323/.427, so neither guy is really a superior option offensively. Machado probably won't be much better right away -- and it may be unfair to expect that he will be -- but he may be able to be decent defensively while hitting better than Andino -- sort of a combination of the two's skills. Still, Machado has never played much third base, and now he'll be doing so at the highest level. (Apparently Machado took "a lot of ground balls at third" during his time in Bowie, according to manager Gary Kendall. So that's good, I guess.)

I'm not sure if Machado is ready or that it's a smart move to bring him up right now. I guess we'll find out over the next few weeks and months. As with most player promotions, fan opinions are mixed. But there's one thing this move definitely is: bold. It's an extremely bold move. I'm sure the team's current record played a part in the decision, but then again, if the O's were 20 games out of first place, wouldn't it almost make just as much sense to play Machado every day in the majors if they thought he was ready? Possibly, I guess.

But here's the cool part of all of this: Now we get to watch Machado play on a team that's currently tied for the lead in the wild card standings. Regardless of how good this team actually is or if they can stick around through late August into September, that's pretty exciting.

O's sign reliever Ayala, not in on Manny Ramirez

Yesterday, the Orioles came to terms with reliever Luis Ayala. Ayala will be another late-game bullpen option for Buck Showalter along with Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, Kevin Gregg, and Matt Lindstrom (in some order).

Ayala, 34, has pitched in the majors since 2003. He had a bit of a comeback season last year for the Yankees, when he finished with a 2.09 ERA in 56 innings. Still, he was a bit lucky and wasn't nearly as good as that ERA indicates. Oddly enough, he walked the most batters per nine innings (3.21) in his career last season, and he also finished with an absurdly high left-on-base percentage of 85.7. There's no way that he'll be able to repeat that number, though duplicating his 50 percent ground ball rate would certainly be beneficial.

Ayala's deal is for one year and $925,000, and it includes a $100,000 buyout and a $1 million team option for 2013. The O's waited a little while and got a serviceable reliever for not a lot of money. Not bad.

-----

Signing Ayala is fine, but the better news is that the O's are apparently out of the Manny Ramirez sweepstakes. Signing Ramirez would not have made much sense, and that's without considering his 50-game ban for previously testing positive for banned substances. He can only fill the designated hitter spot at this point in his career, and such a signing is really a luxury that the O's don't need. Ramirez could possibly have served as a decent DH platoon option with Wilson Betemit, but I also doubt Showalter would consistently employ that type of strategy.

Betemit will likely be the main DH, though that should also allow Showalter to keep some guys (Matt Wieters, Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis, Nolan Reimold, etc.) off the field but in the lineup on occasion. Lineup flexibility is important; apparently that's something that was learned from the Vladimir Guerrero signing.

O's acquire backup catcher Taylor Teagarden

Yesterday, the Orioles acquired catcher Taylor Teagarden from the Rangers in exchange for minor-league pitcher Randy Henry and a player to be named later. With Matt Wieters being the only catcher listed on the team's 40-man roster, the O's were determined to locate a competent backup backstop.

Teagarden, 27, is out of options, which is one reason the Rangers made this move. But he's also failed to live up to the hype at the plate. In 392 major league plate appearances, Teagarden has hit .220/.286/.417 with 16 home runs. That's obviously not particularly good, but then again, he should be an improvement over what Craig Tatum did last season (.195/.245/.230 in 96 plate appearances). In the minors, Teagarden showcased an ability to get on base; unfortunately, that hasn't translated to his major league at-bats yet.

Teagarden's best asset appears to be his defense. According to Matt Eddy and Tim Ednoff of Baseball America, "Teagarden still receives high grades for his defensive skills, however. He's an effortless receiver and blocker with a quick, accurate arm who has gunned down 34 percent of basestealers in the big leagues."

It's not ideal to give up anything valuable when acquiring a backup catcher, though there's no guarantee that Henry or the player to be named later develop into major leaguers. Still, the price the O's paid for Teagarden seems reasonable, and it doesn't appear as if they overpaid.

Most fans have noticed by now that the O's, managed by former Rangers manager Buck Showalter, haven't had any problem recently dealing with the Rangers. Via the Baseball America link above, here's a quick rundown of those trades:

Working backward from Teagarden, the Orioles acquired Darren O'Day in a Nov. 3 waiver claim; righthander Pedro Strop for Mike Gonzalez on Aug. 31; third baseman Chris Davis and righthander Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara on July 30; lefty Zach Phillips for Nick Green and cash on July 19; and lefty Clay Rapada signed a minor league deal on Jan. 27. Even journeyman righty reliever Willie Eyre spent a season with the Rangers' Triple-A affiliate in 2010, with a partial-season stopover in the Athletics system prior joining the Orioles.

There's some decent trades in there, but nothing overly terrible or crazy. Who knows if the O's are done dealing yet, but as long as Showalter's around, a trade with the Rangers is always a possibility.

Updating the O's GM candidates list

According to The Baltimore Sun's Peter Schmuck, the Orioles have updated the names on their general manager wish list. That list includes:

. . . Arizona Diamondbacks senior vice president for scouting and player development Jerry DiPoto, Texas Rangers assistant general manager Thad Levine, Toronto Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava, Florida Marlins assistant GM Dan Jennings, Los Angeles Dodgers assistant GM De Jon Watson, Detroit Tigers assistant GM Al Avila, Los Angeles Angels executive and former GM Tony Reagins and Dodgers assistant GM Logan White.

MASN's Roch Kubatko added two other notes: that "Josh Byrnes (Padres) no longer is being considered at this time"; and that "Orioles are interested in Gerry Hunsicker (Rays), but they're convinced that he'll stay in Tampa Bay."

Other noteworthy Orioles items:

- Scouting director Joe Jordan has left the organization to be the Philadelphia Phillies' director of player development.

- John Stockstill, the O's director of player development, will return next season (via Kubatko's link).

- And, according to Buck Showalter (via Schmuck), there won't be many changes to his coaching staff

MacPhail steps down, so what now?

The Orioles have announced that Andy MacPhail is leaving the organization and that he will not return as president of baseball operations. It was speculated for months that MacPhail would not return, and now it's official. Another popular rumor was that Buck Showalter would leave his managerial position to take over for MacPhail either as general manager or in another front office role, but Showalter will still be the team's manager next season.

According to Roch Kubatko, here are some candidates to replace MacPhail:

It's impossible to know every name that's been discussed and debated. I've floated a few, such as Marlins assistant general manager Dan Jennings and Blue Jays assistant general manager Tony LaCava.

The Sun's Dan Connolly recently expanded the list to include Jerry Dipoto (Diamondbacks senior VP), Gerry Hunsicker (Rays senior VP), former Orioles executives Wayne Krivsky and Scott Proefrock (Phillies assistant GM), Damon Oppenheimer (Yankees scouting director), A.J. Preller (Rangers senior director of player personnel), former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi (Mets special assistant) and Scott Servais (Rangers senior director of player development.)

. . . Also, director of baseball operations Matt Klentak is regarded as an executive who will be a valuable asset to MacPhail's replacement. He's not currently seen as a candidate for the position, but his time is approaching.

MacPhail had his moments, but in the end he couldn't do enough to turn the organization around. The next GM (or president of baseball operations) will need to identify what the organization has done wrong when drafting, developing, and coaching minor league talent. The O's are in an extremely difficult position in the AL East and have to play tough competition year in and year out, but they also don't do themselves any favors by not developing a better group of young players, both through the draft and international scouting. Hopefully the next GM has some ideas on how to rectify those problems.

It's also worth wondering how much power the team's next GM will have. With Showalter still around, will he be the guy wielding the most power? Peter Schmuck thinks so:

There are all sorts of possibilities, but since both Angelos and Showalter are old-school personalities, it's fair to assume they won't be writing the script for the "Moneyball" sequel. If Showalter does not change his mind and unexpectedly jump upstairs, the next GM — or president of baseball operations — will likely be someone with whom he shares some history and someone who will fit into the Angelos comfort zone.

In other words, it will likely be an established fellow with some front office political skills and player-development experience rather than some twentysomething Ivy Leaguer carrying a spreadsheet and a cup of Starbucks into every meeting.

Again, that's all Schmuck's speculation, but it's possible considering how well Angelos and Showalter seem to get along. With Showalter likely to stick around next season and beyond, the O's aren't going to bring in someone that he won't be able to work with. Still, I'd like for the O's to be flexible and hire the best person for the position, not the guy most willing to agree with all of Showalter's opinions.

I like Showalter -- maybe not as much as when he first joined the O's -- but I'm not quite sure I want him to be the guy calling most of the shots for the organization. Still, Showalter does seem interested in the organization's young talent, and if he's committed to figuring out why most of the team's top prospects seem to fail when they join the major league club, then I guess it's fine if he needs to co-sign on whoever replaces MacPhail.

Facing important decisions, O's moving slowly

I've had a couple of people ask me what I think the Orioles will do this offseason, and I honestly have no idea. They could go big and sign a few free agents, they could add a couple of pitchers and a hitter or two, or maybe they will target a few low-priced, underappreciated players and hope they outperform expectations. But, really, the first step to the O's making any of those decisions is figuring out who the guy calling the shots is going to be, and there still seems to be some confusion over whether Andy MacPhail is going to return or if Buck Showalter will leave the dugout to take a front office position.

Like the rest of us, Peter Schmuck continues to wait:

Until there is a detemination on both fronts, it's hard to do more than speculate about the eventual composition and hierarchy in the Warehouse. MacPhail had given every indication that he would not remain after his contract expires at the end of this month, but the fact that he and the club have not made a quick announcement clearly indicates that Angelos wants him to stay connected to the club in some capacity. If he does, then it seems more likely that Showalter will remain in the dugout.

I like MacPhail and Showalter, but I'm not quite sure if I want either of them as the team's general manager (or president of baseball operations, or whatever). In MacPhail's case, I think he's done a decent job in his O's tenure, but I don't think he's taken enough chances. He's made a few solid trades, but there have also been some signings (Michael Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, and Vladimir Guerrero to name a few) that didn't make much sense and didn't have much of a chance of working out.

This decision is extremely important, mostly because the O's are faced with the difficult task of finding out exactly why so many of their top minor league players keep failing at the major league level. Matt Wieters and Zach Britton may have turned the corner, but what about Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Josh Bell, and Nolan Reimold? And those are just some names from the last few years; there have been dozens of talented players to come through the O's farm system who haven't gotten the job done. Is it a scouting thing? A coaching thing? It's probably a combination of both, but whatever the issue is, the O's need to eventually sort it out.

If the O's are ever going to be competitive again in the AL East, they'll need lots of contributions from their farm system, particularly their top prospects. Someone from outside the organization may view the team's problems differently than MacPhail or Showalter, but he'd also have to deal with Peter Angelos. And that's certainly no easy task.

About Kevin Gregg and front office thinking

For some reason, the Orioles failed to learn from Mike Gonzalez's awful first season (and plenty of other failed reliever signings before that) that signing relievers to multi-year deals rarely goes according to plan. Except for the elite, relievers are notoriously fickle, and it's difficult to predict their performances for one year, let alone two or three. So instead of cutting their losses and searching for other cheaper or underappreciated bullpen options, the O's front office decided to bring in Kevin Gregg to assume the closer's role.

Unlike Gonzalez (who received a two-year, $12 million deal in 2010), Gregg was not a Type A free agent (but was a Type B), meaning the O's didn't have to surrender a draft pick to sign him -- something that made the Gonzalez signing even more ridiculous. But the O's did hand Gregg a two-year, $10 million contract, meaning he'll be back next season. And regardless of what Buck Showalter says/said in MASN commercials about how the save rule "doesn't carry much weight with [him]," well, that just hasn't proven to be true.

Before joining the O's, Gregg had never been signed to more than a one-year deal. True, he was arbitration eligible until the 2010 season, but even then the Blue Jays signed him as a free agent to a one-year, $2.75 million deal. If the O's had done something similar with Gregg, I doubt many fans would have complained. Sure, he's not a lights-out reliever, but even a rather ordinary reliever can pitch well for one season. And that's basically what Gregg did last season for the Blue Jays: He finished the season with a pitching line of 3.51/3.57/4.05 (ERA/FIP/xFIP), accumulated a WAR of 0.8, and struck out 8.85 batters per nine while walking 4.58 per nine. Again, those aren't fantastic numbers, but they are useful and didn't cost the Jays a ton of money.

So why did the O's overreact and sign Gregg for two years? Maybe they were impressed by the then-32-year-old's 37 saves in 2010. Or maybe they just liked his goggles. Either way, they brought Gregg on board, and he has been terrible. In 52 innings, he has a pitching line of 4.33/5.03/5.01 while also striking out fewer batters (7.27 K/9) and walking way too many (6.23 BB/9). In his career, Gregg has struck out 8.23 per nine and walked 3.97 per nine, so his numbers are obviously down across the board this season. By the way, Gregg has a WAR of -0.4 this season, which is awful. It's also worth noting that in his 52 innings, Gregg has allowed 50 hits and 36 walks, while also hitting a batter. That's a ton of baserunners.

When the O's had both Jim Johnson and Koji Uehara, it was ridiculous to have Gregg saving games, particularly in situations with, say, a one- or two-run lead. Without Uehara and with the O's apparently wanting to stretch Johnson out so he can start at some point this season or next (more on that in a second), there really aren't that many options for the O's to turn to late in games.

But look at last night's win, for example. Zach Britton pitched six innings and then handed the ball off to Jim Johnson with a 3-2 lead. Johnson pitched two spotless innings, and then it was Gregg-in-for-the-save time. First of all, are the O's going to stretch Johnson out, or not? He pitched three innings against the Angels on August 20, and in five appearances since then he's pitched one inning three times and two innings twice. Haven't they decided what to do yet? Second, again, the O's bullpen does not have a bunch of fantastic relievers in it right now, but how can any team rely on Gregg in a one-run game? He's not pitching like someone who Showalter can just throw out there for an inning, especially with such a slim lead. In the ninth inning last night, Gregg nearly blew another save (which would have been his seventh). He allowed a leadoff single but retired the next two batters. He then proceeded to walk the next two to load the bases. Thankfully, he retired Brandon Guyer to end the game, but not after yet another roller-coaster outing.

If Gregg's performance this season hasn't bothered you enough, maybe this quote after the game will:

"The bottom line is you obviously haven’t acquired my taste in pitching yet,” Gregg said. “It’s what I do. It’s what I’ve always done. And yeah, it’d be nice if I was like [Jim Johnson] and went 1-2-3, every inning I’m out there. But I’m not J.J. I don’t throw 97 [mph] with sink.”

It's easy to get mad at Gregg for saying something like this. He's certainly frustrated with how he's pitched this season, even if you can't quite take that thought away from his quote. But in a way, he's right, and I don't mean that as a positive. Sure, Gregg is having his worst season in the majors, and I don't think many people would have thought he'd be just this bad. But for the most part, this is who he is. He likely wasn't going to join the Orioles and transform into some dominant closer; you can't predict that type of thing by just looking at save totals. So it was foolish for the O's to think they could predict what an average pitcher like Gregg would do for a single season, let alone two.

I know one thing, though: I will never acquire Gregg's taste in pitching. He can try to convince fans that he'd prefer to walk guys in order to end up facing someone who he's more confident he can retire, but, frankly, I'm tired of hearing about how he never gives in to opposing hitters and that he continues to nibble when he's down in the count because he's a gambler out there who refuses to give in. Really, he's just not that good, and the O's are relying on him to do more because they made the mistake of paying him to do so.

The reason why the O's are trotting Gregg out there in save opportunity after save opportunity is because they're looking to justify the money they're paying him. It's the same reason why Vladimir Guerrero continues to bat fourth or fifth every game. Maybe the O's don't have a slew of other options to replace either guy, but by refusing to cut their losses, or at the very least adjust, Showalter and/or the front office are hurting the team. And they're upsetting fans.

Deciphering Showalter's logic

Here's Buck Showalter on Vladimir Guerrero getting the day off:

“I talked to him today about [his wrist]. I wanted to make sure that the wrist, that wasn’t bothering him. He’s always a pretty level guy. I can tell in the dugout he’s been a little frustrated lately because he’s trying so hard,” Showalter said. “He’s hit a couple balls on the button right at somebody, and you can see he’s had a little different response afterwards that he usually doesn’t have. He’s a proud man, and I want to treat him with the respect that he has coming.”

And here's Showalter again, speaking about Nolan Reimold after last night's 6-4 win:

“Nolan’s a strong guy with a lot of skills,” Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. “He’s got some skills that could play up here if he can grasp some of the small things, and tonight he got a good return for some of the work he’s been putting in. I know he was excited. So were we.”

Showalter was discussing Reimold because he hit a walkoff, two-run homer in the 10th inning in last night's game. Showalter, though, is talking about Guerrero and Reimold like there's a massive difference between the two. From Buck's quotes, you get the sense that he thinks Guerrero has been dealing with an injury and is hitting into some tough luck, but that he still deserves a consistent spot in the lineup. And in Reimold's case, Buck believes that he's got talent but still has a lot to prove.

You'd think Guerrero would be grossly outperforming Reimold. But that's not the case:

Guerrero's 2011: 393 PA, .274/.310/.387
Reimold's 2011: 152 PA, .215/.296/.400

Both of those batting lines are bad. Guerrero's numbers are slightly better and have been accumulated in 241 more plate appearances. But Guerrero has a steady role -- DHing every day and batting in the cleanup spot as long as he's healthy -- while Reimold sits every few days and didn't start playing more until Luke Scott's injury ended his season.

Showalter seems to be viewing Guerrero as the career .318/.380/.554 hitter who no manager would ever consider benching. But Vlad is not close to being that guy. When O's fans look at Guerrero, they see a 36-year-old designated hitter who won't be in Baltimore after this season. They see a guy who's not getting the job done, yet he's being placed in the cleanup spot game after game. And they see a guy who is preventing lineup flexibility because he can't play anywhere in the field. With Vlad in the lineup, the O's can't:

• DH Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis, or Josh Bell or at least use them in some kind of 1B/3B/DH rotation;
• give any of the outfielders a chance to DH and rest their legs; or
• allow Matt Wieters to stay in the lineup once every four or five days without having to catch.

The Orioles don't owe Guerrero anything. Well, I take that back: They owe him the rest of this year's salary and the $3 million of his deal that's deferred until 2016-2017. But they don't have to "respect" him by putting his name in the lineup every single game. That doesn't mean they should badmouth him or throw him under the bus for not having a good season. Guerrero has had plenty of opportunities to turn things around, but it's just not happening. And only truly bad teams keep running out players like Guerrero -- guys who barely have any value, aren't helping the team, and are blocking younger guys from having the chance to play every day.

Reimold is not a star. He may end up not being an everyday player. But it's a little embarrassing that the O's still don't have a clue if Reimold, who turns 28 in two months, can be someone they rely on for next season and beyond. The Orioles are terrible at developing young players at the major league level, and how they've handled many of their talented prospects this season is just another example.

Buck Showalter's logic

Tonight, the Orioles face the Angels and starter Ervin Santana. As Roch Kubatko mentioned earlier today in a post about Luke Scott (who's returning to the lineup), Felix Pie has three hits in five career at-bats against Santana. One of those hits was a triple.

Predictably, Pie's in the lineup tonight, batting eighth and playing left field. Because Scott's back to fill the DH slot, Nolan Reimold's on the bench. Reimold is having a much better season than Pie and is clearly the better player, but this is probably why he's not playing tonight:

(Career) Reimold vs. Santana: 0-2, 1 BB

(Fake Buck Showalter: "Way to not get a hit against Santana in limited at-bats, Nolan. And who cares about that walk?")

That has to be why Showalter is playing Pie instead of Reimold. He can't believe Pie is better than Reimold, right? Or maybe it's just because Pie is left-handed. Yeah, that has to play a part as well.

I've probably written something similar to this before, but whatever. There's no legitimate reason why Pie should be in over Reimold. It's not like Reimold is a star or an amazing player, so I'm getting tired of having to harp on this point over and over again: He's a competent, above-average hitter. That's more than anyone can say about Pie, who, in only 140 plate appearances this season, has racked up a -1.7 WAR. Every at-bat he's receiving is a wasted opportunity that should be given to Reimold.

Or bring Matt Angle back up from Norfolk and designate Pie for assignment. Angle may not end up being a very good player, but at least we all know right now that Pie is awful.

Nolan Reimold vs. Felix Pie

Lately, Buck Showalter has gone a little overboard when it comes to overmanaging. He mostly does this with the bullpen, but another example presented itself last night. Trailing 5-4 in the top of the ninth, the Orioles had a runner on first with two outs and Nolan Reimold due up. Showalter decided to pinch-hit Felix Pie for Reimold; Pie then struck out to end the game.

So here's the question: Why pinch-hit Pie for Reimold? Simply to have Pie, a lefty, in to face the right-handed Craig Kimbrel? Does that really make much sense? Recently I looked at whether Reimold was some left-handed hitting specialist. He's not. So let's look at Reimold vs. Pie, both in general and against right-handed pitching.

Reimold vs. all: 603 PA, .263/.348/.442, 22 HR
Reimold vs. RH: 359 PA, .261/.343/.430, 13 HR

Pie vs. all: 991 PA, .253/.299/.381, 17 HR
Pie vs. RH: 815 PA, .267/.310/.404, 14 HR

So Reimold is both better against right-handed pitching and a much better hitter in general. Pie has some value for the O's -- defensively, and also as a runner late in games. But unless he's going to be used to hit in the pitcher's spot in NL ballparks or to pinch-hit for someone like Robert Andino when a righty is on the mound, that's really it. Pie should never replace someone like Reimold at the plate; choosing to do so doesn't make much sense at all.

Showalter does seem to like to play the right/lefty game a lot, and that had to be why Pie hit for Reimold. I'd really like to hear the rationale for such a move. I'm also hoping that Pie's higher batting average against right-handed pitching (.267 vs. Reimold's .261) wasn't the reason for the move. Maybe Showalter likes batting average -- who knows.

Basically, though, I'm growing tired of the O's refusing to make logical decisions. Most fans would rather see Reimold in the lineup every day instead of Vladimir Guerrero. Most fans would rather see Koji Uehara or Jim Johnson pitching in a critical situation rather than Kevin Gregg. And I'm starting to get the feeling that most fans would like to see Blake Davis get more playing time than Andino, even though Davis has only been on the major league club for a few weeks.

Overall, there isn't a whole lot that Showalter can do to change this club. He's not the one that put this roster together, and it's obvious that the O's need more talent in order to compete for an entire season. But micromanaging to the level of pinch-hitting Pie for Reimold is ridiculous. I'm sure that Showalter is trying to do everything in his power to end this current slide (2-8 in their last 10), but enough is enough.

The inflexibility of the Orioles

I was going to give this post a title of "The inflexibility of Buck," but I don't think all of these problems/issues are solely his fault. For example, it wasn't Buck Showalter's decision to sign Vladimir Guerrero (more on that below). Also, I like Showalter (who now has a 69-64 record in Baltimore) and think he's the best manager the O's have had in years. But as the Jim Riggleman-Nationals fiasco recently demonstrated, it's easy to overrate baseball managers and believe that most of them are difference makers. Some of them are, sure. But most of them? Probably not.

Basically, the O's are a below-average team. This is not news. The O's need to get better in several key areas, and even the players and front office personnel would admit that. But after signing a player to fill a specific role, a team sometimes needs to understand that it made a mistake. If no other options are available, then it's normally acceptable to keep using that player in that role. But when other, more intriguing options are available, it only hurts a team to compound that initial mistake by continuing to use said player in a role that just isn't working. Yes, that's a vague description, but here's how it relates to the O's:

Vladimir Guerrero

Guerrero is one of the most exciting baseball players I've ever watched. It would have been a real treat if he had played on the O's during the prime of his career. Sadly, that time has passed. When the O's signed Guerrero to a one-year, $8 million deal in the offseason, I was mostly against it. The issue wasn't just that the O's were overpaying Guerrero, but that as the team's designated hitter, he would clog the roster with a player who can't play in the field anymore. Essentially, he's done just that. With the exception of games in NL stadiums, Guerrero has been in the lineup in most O's games. The O's rarely decide to bench Guerrero and DH someone else, meaning that Luke Scott has to play in the field if the O's want his bat in the lineup.

If Guerrero were hitting, that wouldn't be very important. But he's not. Guerrero is currently batting .282/.313/.386 with six home runs, which is not the kind of production the O's want from their designated hitter. (Here's more on Guerrero's mediocre season from Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies.) So Guerrero is not hitting for much power or getting on base at a high rate, and yet he's in the lineup every day as the team's DH. Oh, and he continues to bat fourth -- another perplexing decision.

The initial decision to sign Guerrero is not looking good, and unfortunately there's no way to go back and un-sign him. But just because he's on the roster doesn't mean that Showalter has to keep putting Guerrero's name in the lineup every game -- especially in the fourth spot. Not only should Guerrero be moved down in the batting order, but he should sit more often as well. The argument that the O's are trying to pump up his trade value by putting his name in the lineup so often, at this point, is ridiculous. It's not impossible that some AL team in a few weeks makes some kind of offer for Guerrero, but the O's would get next to nothing in return. In fact, they should be happy if another team simply agrees to absorb the rest of Guerrero's salary ($3 million of which, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, is deferred without interest until the 2016-2017 season).

Guerrero's presence on the roster is not helping the team, and it's actually negatively affecting the O's in other ways (listed below).

Nolan Reimold

The O's treatment of Reimold is baffling. I won't make the argument that he's some kind of defensive wizard in left field. But as a 27-year-old who has demonstrated the ability to hit major league pitching, he deserves the chance to play regularly.

In 2009, Reimold hit .279/.365/.466 with 15 homers in 411 plate appearances. Unfortunately, he battled several injuries in 2010 and only batted .207/.282/.328 in 131 plate appearances that season. But the injuries obviously affected his play across the board; Showalter has admitted (a few times, actually) that Reimold wasn't the same player in 2010. Then, because he still had an option left, the O's decided to keep Reimold off the roster at the start of this season and have him report to Triple-A Norfolk. Because of a few injuries to other players, Reimold was recalled in May, and he's been on the roster since. He got off to a quick start, and in 56 plate appearances he's batting .261/.375/.478 with three home runs. Sure, that's not many trips to the plate, but that's the problem: Why is Reimold not playing more? He gets on base, draws walks, and hits for power. And yet he's been relegated to the bench and pigeonholed into being some kind of lefty-hitting specialist who only gets in the lineup when a southpaw is on the mound.

Here are his (albeit brief) career splits:

vs. RH: 357 PA, .260/.342/.429, 13 HR
vs. LH: 241 PA, .264/.357/.447, 8 HR

So he has slightly better numbers against lefties, but in fewer plate appearances. Overall, those are pretty good numbers against both types of pitchers, and it's not any kind of outrageous split. That's not to say that Showalter (hopefully) believes Reimold hits much better against lefties. The reason he's only playing against lefties is that it pushes Scott to the bench, because Scott doesn't hit lefties quite as well (though that's overblown as well).

I'm not arguing that Reimold is a superstar and that it's a crime against humanity for him to sit on the bench so often. But it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to keep Reimold on the roster if he's going to sit out a week at a time. I'm not a big believer in Felix Pie, but I believe that Reimold has the talent to be an effective major league hitter. And hopefully the O's give him a chance to prove that he either is or isn't before the end of the season.

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Here's another point: Before the season, the O's made it known that they wanted to win games now. They weren't going to mortgage the future to do so, but the Guerrero and Derrek Lee signings, along with the Mark Reynolds trade, were made to improve the on-field product for this season in an attempt to reach a .500 record (or close to it). But here's the odd part of that: If the O's are trying to win now so much, the decision to play Guerrero less should be made anyway. His plethora of singles would be nice for, say, someone like Robert Andino, but they're not what the O's want out of their cleanup-hitting designated hitter. Putting Scott at the DH more often gets Reimold's bat in the lineup, and it also saves Scott from having to make throws in the outfield that would put extra stress on his injured right shoulder.

Just like the decision to use Kevin Gregg in situations when either Koji Uehara or Jim Johnson (or both) are available, Showalter and the O's are being rather inflexible when it comes to dealing with Guerrero and the DH position.

Kevin Gregg is not better than Koji Uehara

With a 5-4 lead in the ninth tonight, Buck Showalter brought in Kevin Gregg for the save. Gregg retired the first batter, but he eventually blew the save, allowing a run on an RBI single by Casey Kotchman. (The O's eventually lost 7-5 in 11 innings.) Gregg has pitched moderately well this year, but there was a pitcher still in the bullpen who Showalter should have went to instead: Koji Uehara.

This situation isn't something new; Showalter seems to like having Gregg in the closer role, and Gregg has racked up 12 saves. But acquiring saves doesn't make a pitcher great. Consider the career numbers of both pitchers:

Gregg: 3.99 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 8.28 K/9, 3.88 BB/9, 134 saves

Uehara: 3.32 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 8.98 K/9, 1.43 BB/9, 13 saves

In parts of nine major league seasons, Gregg has accumulated 4.9 fWAR. In parts of only three seasons, Uehara has already been worth 3.6 fWAR.

The Orioles may not have the greatest bullpen in the league, but the team does have some decent relievers. Jim Johnson, who's also been solid this year, pitched two scoreless innings before Gregg entered the game.

I've argued before that using Gregg in a save situation when Uehara (or Johnson) is sitting in the bullpen is pretty silly, especially when both pitchers are well rested. In this case, Uehara pitched last night -- when the O's were already leading 5-0, which is another matter entirely. However, Uehara ended up pitching the 10th inning tonight after Gregg departed, meaning he was just fine to pitch the ninth. Does it really make a ton of sense to use one guy instead of another clearly better option just because the former has racked up more saves? That logic applies even more so since the O's were leading by only a single run.

Uehara is the better pitcher. He very well may have blown the save just as Gregg did. But a manager's job is to put his team in the best position to win, and it doesn't look like Showalter did that tonight.

Jake Fox breaks 'unwritten rule,' angers both managers

In yesterday's 14-9 win over the Tigers, Jake Fox hit his 10th home run -- the most in the Grapefruit League. Unfortunately, he got a little greedy late in the game and angered both managers -- the Tigers' Jim Leyland and the O's own Buck Showalter -- with a single swing.

Here's what happened, via Jeff Zrebiec:

The Orioles had runners on second and third and no outs in the eighth inning today when Fox came to the plate against Tigers minor leaguer Chance Ruffin. The most important aspect of this story is the score was 13-3 at the time, and both teams had subbed out most of their regulars. Ruffin started the at-bat with three straight balls, but Fox decided to take a rip at a 3-0 pitch in a clear take situation.

It certainly qualified as a breach of baseball etiquette. Swinging 3-0 in a 10-run game with no outs in the eighth inning with a minor league pitcher on the mound is a decent way to make sure you get a fastball in the ribs in your next at-bat. The average fan may not think it was a big deal but Orioles manager Buck Showalter and Tigers manager Jim Leyland certainly did.

Showalter angrily yanked off his hat, and was seen yelling in the home dugout to anyone in particular. His hat off the whole time, he kept shaking his head and muttering throughout the rest of Fox's at-bat, which resulted in a walk Leyland, meanwhile, yelled at Fox from the top step of the dugout.

When Fox was removed for a pinch runner, Showalter made sure that he was one of the first people to meet him in the dugout and he gave him an earful. The Orioles manager was still fuming about it after the game as it apparently wasn't the first time this spring where Fox ignored a clear take situation.

Fox is presumably going to make the opening day roster because of his fantastic hitting in spring training, so it's a little early to overreact about a few instances in which Fox should have kept the bat on his shoulder. However, Fox is mainly going to be a reserve (barring injury), and if he's irritating his manager with similar antics during the season, he may not be around for very long.

Then again, if he hits like he currently is in spring training when he fills in for Matt Wieters or whomever, I have a feeling that Showalter will overlook an inopportune, mammoth swing here or there.

Showalter calls out Jeter, Red Sox

I don't recall hearing anything controversial from Buck Showalter in his time with the Orioles, but after his interview in the April edition of Men's Journal, that's certainly changed. Showalter had a few choice words for some of the O's AL East competition (via the Bergen (N.J.) Record):

"The first time we went to Yankee Stadium, I screamed at Derek Jeter from the dugout," Showalter said in Men's Journal, according to the Bergen Record. "Our guys are thinking, 'Wow, he's screaming at Derek Jeter.' Well, he's always jumping back from balls just off the plate. I know how many calls that team gets -- and yes, he [ticks] me off."

Speaking about the Red Sox, Showalter mocked the notion that Epstein's biggest offseason acquisitions -- namely, left fielder Carl Crawford and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez -- were indicative of the Red Sox GM's savvy.

"I'd like to see how smart Theo Epstein is with the Tampa Bay [Rays] payroll," Showalter told Men's Journal, according to the Record. "You got Carl Crawford 'cause you paid more than anyone else, and that's what makes you smarter? That's why I like whipping their butt. It's great, knowing those guys with the $205 million payroll are saying, 'How the hell are they beating us?'"

Well played, Buck. Anytime someone calls out Derek Jeter or the Red Sox, I'm usually on that side. I like Showalter's confidence too, and it's not like the Yankees or Red Sox are going to play much harder against the O's than before. If the O's are ever going to make some progress, they're going to have to beat the Yankees and Red Sox (and Rays, for that matter). No one knows that more than Showalter.

O's links: Wieters, Rosenthal, and Reynolds

So the Orioles have won their first three spring training games, which doesn't really matter a whole lot, but is still better than losing all three, I guess. Still, the team's offseason moves have received more attention this year, and it doesn't seem like the O's are being completely ignored as in years past.

Here are a few links from yesterday examining various O's questions and concerns for the next season and future ones as well.

- Heath of Dempsey's Army took issue with an article on Baseball Prospectus listing the most disappointing prospects of all time. On that list was a certain 24-year-old O's catcher: Matt Wieters. Heath disputed Wieters's placement on the list, saying:

Some of the best hitting catchers in recent memory did not even debut until after their age 24 season. Piazza doesn't really count; he got a cup of coffee when he was 23 but at 24, he put up a monster season and took Rookie of the Year. But Jorge Posada? He only had 15 MLB at bats at 24. Victor Martinez had just 61 games and an 87 OPS+. Chris Hoiles had only 6 games under his belt.

Sure, it would have been great if Wieters had hit the ground running like Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk or Joe Mauer. But catchers typically take awhile longer to develop offensively in the majors. They just do. That's why the Nationals moved Bryce Harper to the outfield and the Royals have moved top prospect Wil Myers from behind the plate. They value their bats more than their catching skills and they know the position will slow their development at the plate.

That's just one part of his analysis; you should check out the rest of the piece as well.

- Rob Neyer of SB Nation read Heath's post and tends to agree with him. Here is his succinct offering:

"Disappointing" is highly subjective. The Baseball Prospectus crew is naturally disappointed in Wieters, considering they basically anointed him the new Johnny Bench two years ago. But as Dempsey's Army demonstrates, in terms of 24-year-old catchers he's done just fine and still figures to have a solid career. If not better.

That's essentially what my opinion is. It's hard not to be a little disappointed with Wieters's production -- particularly at the plate -- so far, but he's still pretty young and brings a lot to the table in terms of defense and controlling the running game. He still has time to improve, and I think he'll be fine.

- Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal also wrote about the O's, and he chose to focus on the current state of the organization's farm system. Here's some of what he had to say:

MacPhail has made some excellent trades, getting a bounty for lefty Erik Bedard in February 2008 and obtaining third baseman Josh Bell for lefty George Sherrill in July 2009. But the Orioles rarely draw much from the minor-league free-agent market and lack the creativity of teams such as the Rays and Jays.

No doubt, the franchise is in a much better place than it was a year ago. But rival executives often refer to the Orioles as a sleeping giant, and the description still applies.

For the Orioles to regain their footing, their farm system needs to gush with talent, not offer dribs and drabs. Right now, in the area that matters most, the O’s aren’t good enough.

I don't think anyone would argue that the O's don't need to keep improving the level of talent in the farm system. In that sense, Rosenthal is right. And his criticism of the team's lack of international scouting has been repeatedly questioned by other baseball writers and analysts, including Keith Law. To keep pace with the Yankees and Red Sox, and really, the entire AL East, the O's need to keep adding young talent through whatever means necessary.

- Kevin Kaduk of Big League Stew interviewed Mark Reynolds, and while there's not much quote-worthy material, it's a good read.

- Kaduk spent some time at the O's new facility in Sarasota, Ed Smith Stadium. After $31 million in renovations, Kaduk has plenty of nice things to say about the place, which, as the title suggests, has been turned "from pit to palace." He also provided several photos of the renovations and upgrades. Really, the place looks fantastic.

- Since yesterday must have been focus on the O's day at Big League Stew, Kaduk also quickly summarized the team's offseason acquisitions and departures and raised five crucial questions. Here's the question that I found must interesting:

3. How much of a difference will a full season of Buck Showalter make? The most repeated stat about the Orioles this offseason has been 34-23, which was Baltimore's record after Showalter took over at Camden Yards in 2010. It was a nice run to be sure, but the implication — however serious — that the O's could have played at that clip with last year's collection of talent is misguided.

That said, it'll be interesting to see what Showalter does with this team, which is a hodgepodge of not-fully-realized talent and veteran guys who have been there before. He'll really earn his stripes if he can coax an above-average performance out of a pitching staff that ranks the weakest in the division.

Showalter's biggest hurdle will be to get more production out of guys like Wieters, Adam Jones, Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman (if he's on the roster), and other youngsters making the transition from minor leaguer to full-time MLB regular. If he can do that, the O's should improve mightily.

Mark Connor hired as O's pitching coach

The Orioles and Mark Connor have agreed to terms, and he will be the O's new pitching coach under Buck Showalter.

Here's a little mini-bio on Connor, via Dan Connolly:

Connor, 61, has been on Showalter's staff in each of the manager's three previous stints in the majors, including time as Showalter's pitching coach with the New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers.

[...]

Connor's resume is exceptionally full. He has spent 35 years as a baseball coach, including the last eight seasons with the Texas Rangers. He most recently was a special assistant in the Rangers' player development department, working primarily with minor-league pitchers. He was the big-league club's pitching coach from 2006 to 2008, and was originally hired by Showalter in November 2002 to be Rangers' bullpen coach, a post he held for three seasons.

Along with working with Showalter, Connor was Buck Martinez's pitching coach with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2001-02 and also has been the head baseball coach at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville. A former pitcher in the Minnesota Twins organization, he played two seasons in the minors before an arm injury derailed his hopes of making the big leagues.

With Connor now on board, here is the updated O's coaching staff list:

Pitching Coach: Mark Connor
Hitting Coach: Jim Presley
First-base Coach: Wayne Kirby
Bullpen Coach: Rick Adair

Two positions on Showalter's staff -- bench coach and third-base coach -- still need to be filled.

O's add Wayne Kirby to coaching staff

The O's coaching staff wolf pack has grown by one. According to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun, Wayne Kirby has agreed to be the team's new first-base coach and outfield instructor under Buck Showalter.

The expected additions of Juan Samuel (third-base coach) and Mark Connor (pitching coach) have still yet to officially be announced, so the only official hires are:

Hitting Coach: Jim Presley
First-base Coach: Wayne Kirby
Bullpen Coach: Rick Adair

O's notes: Hendrickson, Kranitz gone; Samuel returns

- The Orioles have declined their $1.2 million club option on Mark Hendrickson. The O's will instead pay Hendrickson his $200,000 buyout, and he becomes a free agent. According to FanGraphs, Hendrickson was worth 0.4 WAR ($1.8 million) last season, so paying him $1 million next season would have been reasonable. Still, the O's have other bullpen options, and Hendrickson is also 36 years old.

- Without a new contract from the O's, Rick Kranitz accepted a position with the Astros to become the organization's Minor League pitching coordinator. Brittany Ghiroli, who wrote the linked MLB.com article, speculates that "Rangers Minor League special assistant Mark Connor is in line to become the new Orioles pitching coach." That deal may be announced soon.

- Juan Samuel apparently will be returning to the O's to occupy a position he had before Buck Showalter's arrival: third-base coach. The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly offers this reason for Samuel's return: "In putting together his coaching staff, Showalter wanted a base coach who could work with infielders and also was hoping to add a Spanish-speaking coach. He accomplished both with Samuel. Although not involved in the organization’s glory days, Samuel is also someone with Orioles ties, given his four previous years as a coach with the club." Makes sense. Hopefully Samuel doesn't also end up filling another O's coaching position he previously held: interim head coach.

O's add two to coaching staff

This news is a couple of days old, but it's still worth noting. The Orioles and Buck Showalter have started to assemble the team's 2011 coaching staff, and according to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun, two hires have been made. Jim Presley will be the new hitting coach, and Rick Adair will take over as bullpen coach.

Replacing Terry Crowley, Presley certainly has his work cut out for him and will be primarily responsible for the tall task of getting better production out of the team's young core of hitters. Adair, who replaces Alan Dunn, also will play an important role, though he likely won't be under the same microscope as Presley.

Here's some quick information on both Presley and Adair, via Connolly's article:

Presley, 49, is reuniting with Showalter, who gave him his first big league hitting coach job in 1998 with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Presley most recently spent the past five seasons with the Florida Marlins before being fired in June along with manager Fredi Gonzalez.
[...]
Adair, 52, has spent seven years as a major league pitching coach, including the past two with the Seattle Mariners. He was fired in August along with Wakamatsu, then the Mariners' manager.

So both coaches were recently fired, though that's not a particularly shocking thing for assistant coaches in the MLB. Most new coaches want to bring in their own staff, and it looks like this situation is no different.

At pitching coach, it's not looking like Rick Kranitz will return. Besides that position, three coaching slots still need to be filled: first base coach, third base coach, and bench coach.

Speaking of Wakamatsu, Connolly also mentions the former Mariners manager as a potential bench coaching option.