While Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold (when able to be on the field), Chris Davis, and Adam Jones have begun the season particularly well at the plate, three Orioles hitters have been awful: Nick Johnson, Endy Chavez, and Mark Reynolds. Sure, it's early, and things will change in the next few months, but let's look briefly at why each of those three has been so bad.
Nick Johnson: .086/.179/.143 in 35 at-bats. Career slash line: .268/.399/.439
After going hitless in April, Johnson is on a mini-roll, collecting three hits (two doubles) in his last two games. Johnson is known for his ability to work the count and draw walks (career 15.7 BB%), but he has just one walk this season (2.6 BB%). Oddly enough, he's been hit by three pitches, so that's been helping his on-base percentage somewhat.
Johnson has played the least of this underachieving trio, but he may take some solace in that his BABIP is only .107, suggesting that he's due for a few more hits to start dropping in. Then again, if he's not walking, not hitting the ball as hard, and chasing more pitches outside of the strike zone -- and he's currently doing all three of those -- his numbers still won't be very good in the near future.
Endy Chavez: .109/.163/.130 in 46 at-bats. Career slash line: .271/.310/.369
Chavez really only plays for three reasons: He's fast, he can play defense, and Reimold can't stay in the lineup. He's never been able to hit all that well, and it's rather obvious that someone with a career .310 on-base percentage should never bat at the top of any team's order. But he's fast, which apparently means he's more than qualified to hit in that spot.
Currently, Chavez has a walk percentage of 3.9 percent, but he's never walked all that much in his career (5.5 BB%). He's also striking out more (15.7 K% vs. 10% for his career). And he's collected exactly one extra-base hit (a double). Like Johnson, Chavez's BABIP is predictably low (.132), so some of his batted balls should start dropping in for hits a bit more. His plate discipline numbers aren't all that out of whack, though he's not swinging at as many pitches when they are inside the strike zone. Still, the O's (hopefully) didn't sign Chavez for his bat, and they should stop batting him leadoff.
Mark Reynolds: .136/.260/.197 in 66 at-bats. Career slash line: .235/.330/.476
Reynolds has never been and will never be a huge on-base guy, so the obvious thing that jumps out about his struggles is the complete lack of power. Reynolds has yet to hit a home run, though he does have four doubles. But when you're Mark Reynolds, you're expected to hit lots of home runs.
Reynolds's walks are slightly up, but he's striking out a ridiculous 40.3 percent of the time. That's seven percentage points higher than his career mark of 33.3 percent. Unlike Johnson and Chavez, his BABIP of .257 isn't obscenely low, and oddly enough, he's hitting slightly more line drives than he did the last two seasons.
So what's been his main problem? Plate discipline. He's been routinely getting behind in the count, leading to him swinging at more pitches outside the zone (28.8% vs. career 26.5%). He's also making less contact on that pitches outside the zone (26.3% vs. career 44.7%) while swinging at fewer pitches that are in the zone. It's a positive that he's still walking as much as he is, but he's going to have to adjust and start attacking pitches inside the zone when opposing pitchers try to get ahead of him.
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With respective fWAR numbers of -0.7, -0.5, and -0.4, Chavez, Reynolds, and Johnson have been very bad. Then again, someone like Albert Pujols shockingly also has a fWAR of -0.7. But he's still Albert Pujols. Chavez, Reynolds, and Johnson are not. Fortunately, none of the three is signed beyond 2012 (Reynolds's $11 million club option has no chance of being exercised), meaning they all could be looking for new teams next season.
Showing posts with label Mark Reynolds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mark Reynolds. Show all posts
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Reynolds could done as the full-time third baseman
Remember when the Orioles signed Garrett Atkins a couple years ago and tried to sell fans on him being the team's primary first baseman? (The O's do a lot of things like this.) Even in the face of mounting evidence that Atkins had taken a considerable step back and wasn't a full-time player anymore, he was signed to be the guy at first. Well, as you know, after a few months of him barely doing anything, the O's released him. Atkins hasn't played for a major league team since.
When the O's traded for Mark Reynolds, he was brought in to play third base. Unlike the Atkins signing, that seemed fine. Not only did the O's not have any reliable options at third, but Reynolds actually had an average defensive season at third in 2010 (2.2 UZR in 1,214 innings). So the O's hoped he could continue to play average (or even slightly below average) defense and give them more production at the plate.
Reynolds had an OK offensive season, posting a .221/.323/.483 line that most O's fans hoped would be better, but probably couldn't be that surprised with. But what was truly terrible was Reynolds's defense: Instead of reverting back to a below-average defender at third, Reynolds skipped that level and went all the way to abysmal. Of all major league third basemen, Reynolds was far and away the worst, with a UZR of -22.8. The next closest awful defender was Houston's Chris Johnson, who finished with a UZR of -14.5. I had to go back to 2007 to find a third baseman who had that kind of horrible defensive season at third. That guy's name is Ryan Braun, who had a -27.7 UZR and was so terrible that he moved to left field and has played there since. (I'd say that's worked out well.) It's actually funny to go back and look at players who have posted major league worst UZRs at third. There are a few former O's from various seasons: Tony Batista, Ty Wigginton, and Melvin Mora.
Reynolds is terrible at third, and the O's made the decision to bring him back as the team's starting third baseman. All spring, fans heard about his renewed dedication to third-base defense and how he had improved. Considering some of the other team options at third -- Chris Davis, Wilson Betemit, and Ryan Flaherty -- it's not like the O's had any other slick-fielding player to take his place if he faltered.
And that's exactly what's happened. In the team's first handful of games, Reynolds committed two errors and hasn't looked better. He still doesn't have much range, struggles when charging the ball, and generally makes routine plays look much more difficult.
I'm not sure fans ever really bought the idea of signing Atkins. I don't know if a majority of fans believed Reynolds could play third base competently last season after not seeing a whole lot of him in the National League. But there's one thing I do know: No one bought the notion that Reynolds could transform into anything resembling a decent major league third baseman. I'm glad that he worked hard in the spring and dedicated himself to re-learning the craft. Unfortunately, hard work is not always enough, and Reynolds isn't some up-and-coming player who deserves the benefit of the doubt. He hurts the team when he plays third -- case closed.
Fortunately, it seems that Buck Showalter agrees. Betemit got the start at third base last night while Reynolds served as the designated hitter. And while Betemit is far from a significant improvement at third, he is at least somewhat better. I'd like to see Flaherty get a chance at third, but since he has to be on the O's active roster all season to stay in Baltimore's organization, I guess there's no hurry to run him out there.
When the O's traded for Mark Reynolds, he was brought in to play third base. Unlike the Atkins signing, that seemed fine. Not only did the O's not have any reliable options at third, but Reynolds actually had an average defensive season at third in 2010 (2.2 UZR in 1,214 innings). So the O's hoped he could continue to play average (or even slightly below average) defense and give them more production at the plate.
Reynolds had an OK offensive season, posting a .221/.323/.483 line that most O's fans hoped would be better, but probably couldn't be that surprised with. But what was truly terrible was Reynolds's defense: Instead of reverting back to a below-average defender at third, Reynolds skipped that level and went all the way to abysmal. Of all major league third basemen, Reynolds was far and away the worst, with a UZR of -22.8. The next closest awful defender was Houston's Chris Johnson, who finished with a UZR of -14.5. I had to go back to 2007 to find a third baseman who had that kind of horrible defensive season at third. That guy's name is Ryan Braun, who had a -27.7 UZR and was so terrible that he moved to left field and has played there since. (I'd say that's worked out well.) It's actually funny to go back and look at players who have posted major league worst UZRs at third. There are a few former O's from various seasons: Tony Batista, Ty Wigginton, and Melvin Mora.
Reynolds is terrible at third, and the O's made the decision to bring him back as the team's starting third baseman. All spring, fans heard about his renewed dedication to third-base defense and how he had improved. Considering some of the other team options at third -- Chris Davis, Wilson Betemit, and Ryan Flaherty -- it's not like the O's had any other slick-fielding player to take his place if he faltered.
And that's exactly what's happened. In the team's first handful of games, Reynolds committed two errors and hasn't looked better. He still doesn't have much range, struggles when charging the ball, and generally makes routine plays look much more difficult.
I'm not sure fans ever really bought the idea of signing Atkins. I don't know if a majority of fans believed Reynolds could play third base competently last season after not seeing a whole lot of him in the National League. But there's one thing I do know: No one bought the notion that Reynolds could transform into anything resembling a decent major league third baseman. I'm glad that he worked hard in the spring and dedicated himself to re-learning the craft. Unfortunately, hard work is not always enough, and Reynolds isn't some up-and-coming player who deserves the benefit of the doubt. He hurts the team when he plays third -- case closed.
Fortunately, it seems that Buck Showalter agrees. Betemit got the start at third base last night while Reynolds served as the designated hitter. And while Betemit is far from a significant improvement at third, he is at least somewhat better. I'd like to see Flaherty get a chance at third, but since he has to be on the O's active roster all season to stay in Baltimore's organization, I guess there's no hurry to run him out there.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
After latest cuts, O's roster down to 33 players
With the beginning of the MLB season rapidly approaching, the Orioles made another round of cuts on their way to reaching the 25-player roster limit. Via Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com, the latest round included eight demotions:
Flaherty, who turns 26 in July, is a former first-round pick by the Chicago Cubs. He posted his best numbers in Double-A last season, hitting .305/.384/.523 with 14 home runs in 83 games. He was then promoted to Triple-A, where he struggled to adjust, posting a .237/.277/.399 line in 49 games. Still, the O's thought enough of him to select him in the Rule 5 Draft, though that also means they must keep him on the major-league roster for the entire season if they want to keep him beyond this year. Because of that, Flaherty may very well make the team; then again, it's not like the O's are loaded with promising, young hitters who are even close to being major-league ready.
When the O's selected Flaherty last December, MASN's Steve Melewski talked to Baseball America writer Ben Badler, who seemed to be intrigued by the pick. Badler said:
Flaherty, or someone else, has a real shot to get some decent playing time this season. Robert Andino should see most of the regular playing time at second base if Brian Roberts is never able to recover from concussion issues, so third base may be Flaherty or another infielder's best shot at playing. Mark Reynolds is currently penciled in that spot, but he may be on the trading block. Reynolds also is one of the worst defensive third basemen in the majors, which is also a problem.
Infielder Matt Antonelli and pitchers Brad Bergesen and Jason Berken were optioned to Triple-A Norfolk, with outfielder Scott Beerer, catcher John Hester, infielder Steve Tolleson and pitchers Armando Galarraga and Dontrelle Willis reassigned to Minor League camp.Ghiroli also notes that Bergesen and Berken will transition from relievers to starters, though they were both essentially long relievers anyway. They also both came up in the Orioles farm system as starters, and neither ended up being particularly effective in the majors. At 26 and 28 years old, respectively, they'll only be summoned if someone in the rotation struggles mightily or gets hurt -- both real possibilities with this group of starters.
The moves -- which bring the spring roster to 33 -- puts two of the team's three players in contention for a utility/bench role in Minors camp, leaving only Rule 5 Draft pick Ryan Flaherty. Still, manager Buck Showalter wasn't ready to anoint Flaherty with a spot, even with Tolleson and Antonelli both sent to Minors camp.
Flaherty, who turns 26 in July, is a former first-round pick by the Chicago Cubs. He posted his best numbers in Double-A last season, hitting .305/.384/.523 with 14 home runs in 83 games. He was then promoted to Triple-A, where he struggled to adjust, posting a .237/.277/.399 line in 49 games. Still, the O's thought enough of him to select him in the Rule 5 Draft, though that also means they must keep him on the major-league roster for the entire season if they want to keep him beyond this year. Because of that, Flaherty may very well make the team; then again, it's not like the O's are loaded with promising, young hitters who are even close to being major-league ready.
When the O's selected Flaherty last December, MASN's Steve Melewski talked to Baseball America writer Ben Badler, who seemed to be intrigued by the pick. Badler said:
"He's got a solid approach to hitting. You can fool him some, but the power is plus raw power and he has a solid handle on the strike zone. He's played second, third and corner outfield. He may not excel at second or third but he can handle it capably and could move around some.Badler had more to say, so check out Melewski's entire post for more thoughts on Flaherty.
[...]
"He struggled some at Triple-A, but every level before that he hit pretty well. He's a little older than you might see for a prospect at his level, but that is probably why he was (available) in the Rule 5. He probably has as good a chance as anyone taken in that draft to stick with his team."
Flaherty, or someone else, has a real shot to get some decent playing time this season. Robert Andino should see most of the regular playing time at second base if Brian Roberts is never able to recover from concussion issues, so third base may be Flaherty or another infielder's best shot at playing. Mark Reynolds is currently penciled in that spot, but he may be on the trading block. Reynolds also is one of the worst defensive third basemen in the majors, which is also a problem.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Chris Davis whiffs five times in O's win
In yesterday's 5-4 win, Chris Davis struck out five times -- a feat occasionally called the platinum sombrero. Mark Reynolds struck out four times, but he also knocked in the game-winning run in the top of the 11th. All Orioles batters combined had 15 strikeouts at the plate.
But the five strikeouts by Davis is particularly interesting. Here are some notes on his awful day at the plate:
Since joining the O's, Davis has hit .180/.196/.260 in 50 at-bats. He's been dealing with a strained right shoulder, so it may be unfair to judge his performance with the O's just yet. Regardless, he's under team control for a while, so the O's will likely give him every opportunity the rest of this season and next (and possibly beyond) to find out just how good he is.
But the five strikeouts by Davis is particularly interesting. Here are some notes on his awful day at the plate:
Chris Davis becomes the 1st player in 2011 to strikeout 5 times in a single game. Last player to do so, Ryan Howard on 8/24/2010. #whiffking
jasoncollette
jasoncollette
jasoncollettejasoncollette
Before Davis, the last Oriole to strike out 5x in a game was Chris Hoiles, who did it on June 14, 1997 against Atlanta in a 12-inn contest
Brittany Ghiroli
Britt_Ghiroli
Brittany GhiroliBritt_Ghiroli
In 1950 Yogi Berra struck out 12 times in 597 ABs. Today Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis, and Ryan Adams have 12 Ks in 14 ABs.
Sweeny Murti
YankeesWFAN
Sweeny MurtiYankeesWFAN
Congrats to Chris Davis for becoming only the 23rd player in MLB history to strikeout 5 times in 6 plate appearances. I kid, but come on.
Danny Friedheim
oriolesfan
Danny Friedheimoriolesfan
Since joining the O's, Davis has hit .180/.196/.260 in 50 at-bats. He's been dealing with a strained right shoulder, so it may be unfair to judge his performance with the O's just yet. Regardless, he's under team control for a while, so the O's will likely give him every opportunity the rest of this season and next (and possibly beyond) to find out just how good he is.
Friday, July 8, 2011
The O's still aren't developing younger players
The Orioles lost again last night, but that's not surprising considering how they've been playing lately. The loss included bad starting pitching, terrible relief pitching, and mediocre hitting -- all things that the O's excel at right now. (For what it's worth, Matt Wieters did steal a base [the first of his career], which is something that should never happen.)
It's hard to watch the O's at the moment for obvious reasons; it's never fun to tune in to watch your team lose night in and night out. But something that's even more troubling is an issue that has been plaguing the O's for more than a decade: They still aren't developing their young talent.
Let's take a look at O's players 27 years old and younger and how they're doing. Sure, 27 seems like an arbitrary number and isn't necessarily "young," but it's my list. Here they are, with hitters listed first, then pitchers.
Adam Jones: .283/.326/.457. Jones, who turns 26 on August 1, was having a very good season a few weeks ago before he started to slump a bit and his numbers took a tumble. Still, his numbers are still up slightly and he's on pace to have his best season in Baltimore. It's somewhat concerning that FanGraphs doesn't rate his defense very highly, and the same is true this season. I've wondered why Jones seems to make several fantastic, flashy plays but tends to have a few defensive lapses here and there and not always make the routine plays. I still think he's a pretty good center fielder, but he just may not be an elite one. The same can be said of his skills at the plate; he's not necessarily going to be an elite hitter, but he can be a productive hitter who isn't batting at the top of the lineup. Jones hasn't developed (yet) into a star, per se, but he's still one of the best young players the O's have.
Matt Wieters: .269/.319/.413. The 25-year-old Wieters, the lone O's All-Star this season, still seems to make many people angry because he's not hitting like Joe Mauer. Because of his pre-O's hype, many expected him to completely alter the entire franchise with his amazing abilities. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened, but he's still an intriguing piece. Thanks to his .288/.340/.412 batting line in 385 plate appearances in his rookie year (2009), Wieters probably set the bar a little too high, too early. He hasn't been able to hit for that average or get on base that often since then, but he is hitting for as much power this season and has shown signs that he may be able to hit for even more. It is surprising that with his eye at the plate he doesn't walk more (6.7 BB% this season) -- though he did walk three times last night. While he still has work to do at the plate, Wieters has developed into one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball. He's caught 24 of 54 runners (44.4 percent stolen base percentage), far and away the best among all qualified MLB catchers. (The next closest is Alex Avila, at 36.9 percent.) FanGraphs rates his defense the highest among all catchers as well, which is also a top reason why he's leading the O's with a WAR of 2.3.
Nick Markakis: .293/.339/.385. Markakis, 27, has been on fire over the last few weeks and has turned his season around. He's still not walking a ton or hitting for a whole lot of power, but he's been much better lately. Check out my recent post on Markakis for more analysis.
Nolan Reimold: .271/.362/.492. Reimold turns 28 in October, and the O's still have no idea if he's an everyday player or not. Buck Showalter obviously doesn't think too highly of him or else he wouldn't be mostly benching Reimold when a lefty isn't on the mound or pinch-hitting Felix Pie for him. I've written about Reimold plenty lately, so I don't have much more to say. But I will add this: I don't have much faith in the O's playing well in the second half of the season, but I do hope they give Reimold, and maybe some other younger players in Triple-A, some playing time that's being wasted on guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee.
Mark Reynolds: .230/.350/.504. Like Markakis, Reynolds, who turns 28 in August, has turned it on lately and has been hitting the cover off the ball. Unlike Markakis, many of those hits have been home runs. I'm not sure if he's quite this good or not, but he's hitting for a lot of power and is getting on base. He also walks much more than anyone on the team, another valuable skill. Under Reynolds's current contract, he's due to make $7.5 million next season and has a club option for $11 million (with a $0.5 million buyout). Compared with someone like J.J. Hardy, who will likely be looking to cash in as a free agent, Reynolds is still under team control for at least one more season. There's value in that, especially if the O's want to deal him before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Reynolds has been an absolutely terrible defender at third base this year, and he'll probably need to be moved to either 1B or DH. If the O's had a better option at third, it's possible that Reynolds would have already been moved across the infield to play first. But they don't, and that may play a part in the O's holding onto Reynolds instead of dealing him.
Felix Pie: .231/.244/.282. Pie, 26, probably isn't anything better than a fourth outfielder (if that). Sure, he doesn't receive consistent playing time, but he's never really showed the ability to hit or get on base. He has some value as a defensive replacement and a runner, but that's about it. Sorry, Felix.
Zach Britton: 3.47 ERA, 3.82 xFIP. At 23, Britton has taken over the role as the most promising pitcher on the O's roster. Britton has already thrown over 100 innings, so it's probable that the O's will limit the rookie's workload in the second half of the season. With the way the other young starters have pitched, Britton and Jeremy Guthrie are basically carrying the load right now. Britton (1.7) is second in WAR among all rookie pitchers behind Michael Pineda of the Mariners (2.5). Not bad at all.
Brian Matusz: 8.77 ERA, 5.06 xFIP. Matusz (24) is supposed to be in the O's rotation right now, providing another reliable starting option. Instead, he's back in Triple-A Norfolk after a frustrating, awful return from the disabled list. Much has been written about Matusz's reduced velocity, and it's possible that he's still hurt. But if he never recovers that velocity, he'll have to learn to pitch a new way. It won't be easy, but Matusz still has the secondary stuff to be an effective starter even without that low-90s fastball.
Jake Arrieta: 4.90 ERA, 4.33 xFIP. Like Matusz, the 25-year-old Arrieta has disappointed (though not as much). The frustrating thing about Arrieta is that he has the stuff to be effective, but he can't seem to find the strike zone consistently. He's walking 4.44 batters per nine, which is way too many. He walked four again last night in an ineffective outing against the Red Sox. And there's also a concern that Arrieta may have some kind of elbow injury. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.
Chris Tillman: 4.69 ERA, 4.86 xFIP. There's not a whole lot to say about Tillman (23) right now. Tillman received 10 starts at the beginning of the season, and he pitched OK at times. His big issue, though, was his inability to stock around past the fifth inning, because he tends to throw lots of pitches each inning. When he was demoted, instead of returning to Norfolk and dominating Triple-A hitters in an effort to get back to Baltimore, he's still struggling, walking too many batters and not striking out enough either. I'll be surprised if he doesn't return to the O's at some point later in the season, but he has plenty left to prove. It's also worth mentioning that he's about four months younger than Britton.
Brason Berkensen: 5.90 ERA, 4.06 xFIP; 5.92 ERA, 4.39 xFIP. Jason Berken (27) and Brad Bergesen (turns 26 in September) aren't quite the same -- Bergesen is younger and probably a little better -- but I'm lumping them together because they're both pitching out of the bullpen and haven't been very good. Both have pitched well at times this year, but they're essentially the mop-up crew now (you could add Alfredo Simon to that group, too). Whenever the O's are down by more than a few runs, one of them is usually the guy the O's turn to to get through the next few innings. Sure, there's value in that if it's done properly, but I have a hard time believing that either guy will ever be effective over an entire season (especially in the AL East).
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There's also a few guys in Norfolk -- Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell, Ryan Adams, Troy Patton, Matt Angle -- who have some promise, but that's not much to choose from. The goal all along was for the guys above to take the next step (or several steps) forward, but only a few have really done that.
It's hard to watch the O's at the moment for obvious reasons; it's never fun to tune in to watch your team lose night in and night out. But something that's even more troubling is an issue that has been plaguing the O's for more than a decade: They still aren't developing their young talent.
Let's take a look at O's players 27 years old and younger and how they're doing. Sure, 27 seems like an arbitrary number and isn't necessarily "young," but it's my list. Here they are, with hitters listed first, then pitchers.
Adam Jones: .283/.326/.457. Jones, who turns 26 on August 1, was having a very good season a few weeks ago before he started to slump a bit and his numbers took a tumble. Still, his numbers are still up slightly and he's on pace to have his best season in Baltimore. It's somewhat concerning that FanGraphs doesn't rate his defense very highly, and the same is true this season. I've wondered why Jones seems to make several fantastic, flashy plays but tends to have a few defensive lapses here and there and not always make the routine plays. I still think he's a pretty good center fielder, but he just may not be an elite one. The same can be said of his skills at the plate; he's not necessarily going to be an elite hitter, but he can be a productive hitter who isn't batting at the top of the lineup. Jones hasn't developed (yet) into a star, per se, but he's still one of the best young players the O's have.
Matt Wieters: .269/.319/.413. The 25-year-old Wieters, the lone O's All-Star this season, still seems to make many people angry because he's not hitting like Joe Mauer. Because of his pre-O's hype, many expected him to completely alter the entire franchise with his amazing abilities. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened, but he's still an intriguing piece. Thanks to his .288/.340/.412 batting line in 385 plate appearances in his rookie year (2009), Wieters probably set the bar a little too high, too early. He hasn't been able to hit for that average or get on base that often since then, but he is hitting for as much power this season and has shown signs that he may be able to hit for even more. It is surprising that with his eye at the plate he doesn't walk more (6.7 BB% this season) -- though he did walk three times last night. While he still has work to do at the plate, Wieters has developed into one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball. He's caught 24 of 54 runners (44.4 percent stolen base percentage), far and away the best among all qualified MLB catchers. (The next closest is Alex Avila, at 36.9 percent.) FanGraphs rates his defense the highest among all catchers as well, which is also a top reason why he's leading the O's with a WAR of 2.3.
Nick Markakis: .293/.339/.385. Markakis, 27, has been on fire over the last few weeks and has turned his season around. He's still not walking a ton or hitting for a whole lot of power, but he's been much better lately. Check out my recent post on Markakis for more analysis.
Nolan Reimold: .271/.362/.492. Reimold turns 28 in October, and the O's still have no idea if he's an everyday player or not. Buck Showalter obviously doesn't think too highly of him or else he wouldn't be mostly benching Reimold when a lefty isn't on the mound or pinch-hitting Felix Pie for him. I've written about Reimold plenty lately, so I don't have much more to say. But I will add this: I don't have much faith in the O's playing well in the second half of the season, but I do hope they give Reimold, and maybe some other younger players in Triple-A, some playing time that's being wasted on guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee.
Mark Reynolds: .230/.350/.504. Like Markakis, Reynolds, who turns 28 in August, has turned it on lately and has been hitting the cover off the ball. Unlike Markakis, many of those hits have been home runs. I'm not sure if he's quite this good or not, but he's hitting for a lot of power and is getting on base. He also walks much more than anyone on the team, another valuable skill. Under Reynolds's current contract, he's due to make $7.5 million next season and has a club option for $11 million (with a $0.5 million buyout). Compared with someone like J.J. Hardy, who will likely be looking to cash in as a free agent, Reynolds is still under team control for at least one more season. There's value in that, especially if the O's want to deal him before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Reynolds has been an absolutely terrible defender at third base this year, and he'll probably need to be moved to either 1B or DH. If the O's had a better option at third, it's possible that Reynolds would have already been moved across the infield to play first. But they don't, and that may play a part in the O's holding onto Reynolds instead of dealing him.
Felix Pie: .231/.244/.282. Pie, 26, probably isn't anything better than a fourth outfielder (if that). Sure, he doesn't receive consistent playing time, but he's never really showed the ability to hit or get on base. He has some value as a defensive replacement and a runner, but that's about it. Sorry, Felix.
Zach Britton: 3.47 ERA, 3.82 xFIP. At 23, Britton has taken over the role as the most promising pitcher on the O's roster. Britton has already thrown over 100 innings, so it's probable that the O's will limit the rookie's workload in the second half of the season. With the way the other young starters have pitched, Britton and Jeremy Guthrie are basically carrying the load right now. Britton (1.7) is second in WAR among all rookie pitchers behind Michael Pineda of the Mariners (2.5). Not bad at all.
Brian Matusz: 8.77 ERA, 5.06 xFIP. Matusz (24) is supposed to be in the O's rotation right now, providing another reliable starting option. Instead, he's back in Triple-A Norfolk after a frustrating, awful return from the disabled list. Much has been written about Matusz's reduced velocity, and it's possible that he's still hurt. But if he never recovers that velocity, he'll have to learn to pitch a new way. It won't be easy, but Matusz still has the secondary stuff to be an effective starter even without that low-90s fastball.
Jake Arrieta: 4.90 ERA, 4.33 xFIP. Like Matusz, the 25-year-old Arrieta has disappointed (though not as much). The frustrating thing about Arrieta is that he has the stuff to be effective, but he can't seem to find the strike zone consistently. He's walking 4.44 batters per nine, which is way too many. He walked four again last night in an ineffective outing against the Red Sox. And there's also a concern that Arrieta may have some kind of elbow injury. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.
Chris Tillman: 4.69 ERA, 4.86 xFIP. There's not a whole lot to say about Tillman (23) right now. Tillman received 10 starts at the beginning of the season, and he pitched OK at times. His big issue, though, was his inability to stock around past the fifth inning, because he tends to throw lots of pitches each inning. When he was demoted, instead of returning to Norfolk and dominating Triple-A hitters in an effort to get back to Baltimore, he's still struggling, walking too many batters and not striking out enough either. I'll be surprised if he doesn't return to the O's at some point later in the season, but he has plenty left to prove. It's also worth mentioning that he's about four months younger than Britton.
Brason Berkensen: 5.90 ERA, 4.06 xFIP; 5.92 ERA, 4.39 xFIP. Jason Berken (27) and Brad Bergesen (turns 26 in September) aren't quite the same -- Bergesen is younger and probably a little better -- but I'm lumping them together because they're both pitching out of the bullpen and haven't been very good. Both have pitched well at times this year, but they're essentially the mop-up crew now (you could add Alfredo Simon to that group, too). Whenever the O's are down by more than a few runs, one of them is usually the guy the O's turn to to get through the next few innings. Sure, there's value in that if it's done properly, but I have a hard time believing that either guy will ever be effective over an entire season (especially in the AL East).
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There's also a few guys in Norfolk -- Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell, Ryan Adams, Troy Patton, Matt Angle -- who have some promise, but that's not much to choose from. The goal all along was for the guys above to take the next step (or several steps) forward, but only a few have really done that.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
O's need Reynolds to turn it around
The move to trade for Mark Reynolds was supposed to do two things: 1) provide the Orioles with a legitimate power threat and 2) give Reynolds a fresh start with a new team. But so far, Reynolds has not played as well as Andy MacPhail and Co. would have hoped.
In 2009, Mark Reynolds had a career year with the Diamondbacks. He hit .260/.349/.543 with 44 home runs. During that season, he struck out 38.6 percent of the time -- his highest mark in three seasons -- but he got on base at a pretty decent clip and hit with a ton of power. Those two abilities made up for his lack of defensive prowess at third base.
However, Reynolds took a step back in 2010, batting .198/.320/.433 with 32 homers. According to UZR, his defense at third was actually better than average that season, though that hasn't continued in his first couple of months with the Orioles. Reynolds's walk rate jumped from 11.5 percent to 13.9 percent, but his already-high strikeout rate rose as well (38.6 percent to 43.3 percent). His line drive percentage also took a hit, which was partly to blame for his career low BABIP of .257 (his previous low had been .323 in 2008). Except for his first season in 2007 when he hit .279, which was fueled by a .378 BABIP, Reynolds has not been a high-average type of hitter, but hitting under .200 in a full season had to be extremely disappointing, not to mention embarrassing.
Unfortunately for both Reynolds and the O's, Reynolds has not been able to rekindle his 2009 numbers in Baltimore. He's currently hitting .189/.306/.378 with eight home runs and an abysmal .312 wOBA. Those eight homers actually leads the O's right now, but that's not saying a whole lot for a team as offensively challenged as the O's have been.
The odd thing, though, is not that Reynolds has struggled (though not many people thought he'd be quite this bad), but that he's doing so in a slightly different way. His walk percentage (13.7 percent) is almost identical to last season's, but his strikeout percentage, which has risen in each of his first four professional seasons, has been cut to 31.4 percent. Was that a conscious change? Possibly. Is it making him less effective at the plate? Probably.
His BABIP is again very low (.223), but he's also hitting even fewer line drives than he did last season. It's also not a positive trend that his line drive percentage has dropped every season. In terms of plate discipline, Reynolds is attacking fewer pitches overall (both inside and outside of the zone), and he's also making more contact in general (again, both inside and outside the zone). Because of that, it makes sense that his walk rate is about the same and that he's cutting down on his strikeouts. But he's also not getting on base nearly enough or doing the type of damage the O's envisioned when they traded for him. He's likely due for a few more hits to drop in now and then, but if he's not hitting the ball hard, that hardly matters as much. The contact hitter version of Reynolds certainly isn't as scary as the power hitter version.
Reynolds has time to turn things around. After a sluggish April, he has improved his on-base and slugging percentages by more than 50 points each. That's still not good enough, really, but it is a start. And since Reynolds is essentially guaranteed to be in an Orioles uniform next season as well -- he's due to make $7.5 million -- he may as well get familiar with Camden Yards for a little while.
In 2009, Mark Reynolds had a career year with the Diamondbacks. He hit .260/.349/.543 with 44 home runs. During that season, he struck out 38.6 percent of the time -- his highest mark in three seasons -- but he got on base at a pretty decent clip and hit with a ton of power. Those two abilities made up for his lack of defensive prowess at third base.
However, Reynolds took a step back in 2010, batting .198/.320/.433 with 32 homers. According to UZR, his defense at third was actually better than average that season, though that hasn't continued in his first couple of months with the Orioles. Reynolds's walk rate jumped from 11.5 percent to 13.9 percent, but his already-high strikeout rate rose as well (38.6 percent to 43.3 percent). His line drive percentage also took a hit, which was partly to blame for his career low BABIP of .257 (his previous low had been .323 in 2008). Except for his first season in 2007 when he hit .279, which was fueled by a .378 BABIP, Reynolds has not been a high-average type of hitter, but hitting under .200 in a full season had to be extremely disappointing, not to mention embarrassing.
Unfortunately for both Reynolds and the O's, Reynolds has not been able to rekindle his 2009 numbers in Baltimore. He's currently hitting .189/.306/.378 with eight home runs and an abysmal .312 wOBA. Those eight homers actually leads the O's right now, but that's not saying a whole lot for a team as offensively challenged as the O's have been.
The odd thing, though, is not that Reynolds has struggled (though not many people thought he'd be quite this bad), but that he's doing so in a slightly different way. His walk percentage (13.7 percent) is almost identical to last season's, but his strikeout percentage, which has risen in each of his first four professional seasons, has been cut to 31.4 percent. Was that a conscious change? Possibly. Is it making him less effective at the plate? Probably.
His BABIP is again very low (.223), but he's also hitting even fewer line drives than he did last season. It's also not a positive trend that his line drive percentage has dropped every season. In terms of plate discipline, Reynolds is attacking fewer pitches overall (both inside and outside of the zone), and he's also making more contact in general (again, both inside and outside the zone). Because of that, it makes sense that his walk rate is about the same and that he's cutting down on his strikeouts. But he's also not getting on base nearly enough or doing the type of damage the O's envisioned when they traded for him. He's likely due for a few more hits to drop in now and then, but if he's not hitting the ball hard, that hardly matters as much. The contact hitter version of Reynolds certainly isn't as scary as the power hitter version.
Reynolds has time to turn things around. After a sluggish April, he has improved his on-base and slugging percentages by more than 50 points each. That's still not good enough, really, but it is a start. And since Reynolds is essentially guaranteed to be in an Orioles uniform next season as well -- he's due to make $7.5 million -- he may as well get familiar with Camden Yards for a little while.
Friday, March 4, 2011
The Orioles are not like the Astros
Earlier today on ESPN's SweetSpot blog, Austin Swafford (of Astros 290) wrote that the Orioles are headed down a dangerous road -- similar to one the Astros have taken the last few years. In the piece, Swafford argued that the O's didn't need to make many of their offseason moves because the O's are not "a few overpriced veterans away from going to the World Series."
Here's more of what he had to say:
But here are a few points before I get to my main problem with the piece:
1) Guerrero, who's signing may block Felix Pie/Nolan Reimold
2) Duchscherer, who may force Chris Tillman (or another young starter) back to Triple A
That's it. Reynolds, Hardy, and Lee are not blocking anyone in the infield. Josh Bell has recently been working out at first base, but he showed last season that he's not close to being ready to assuming any kind of everyday role. Brandon Snyder probably isn't ready either, if he ever will be. With Guerrero serving as the O's designated hitter, Luke Scott will move to left field, which will likely force Pie and Reimold to either the bench or the minors. It would be nice to see both get regular playing time, so in that sense, Guerrero does seem to be blocking them. But, as I've mentioned before, Pie is 26 and Reimold is 27; we're not talking about young up-and-comers here.
Then there's Duchscherer. Duchscherer is 33, and the O's are banking on him returning to form to give the O's another reliable option in the rotation. If he stays healthy (not a guarantee) and pitches well, he may be another player the O's could trade at the deadline. But he was signed for less than $1 million, so if he can't stay healthy or is ineffective, it's not a huge loss. Considering the O's already have several other young starters to choose from -- Brian Matusz (24), Brad Bergesen (25), Jake Arrieta (24), and Tillman (22), and even Zach Britton (23) down the road -- it's not the worst thing to bring in a low-risk, high-reward starter like Duchscherer. What's the worst that could happen? That Duchscherer keeps getting hurt? Or maybe that he stays healthy enough to pitch but isn't effective? If that's the case, the O's aren't required to keep him in the rotation, and it wouldn't be difficult to let him go. It would be nice to give every young starter plenty of chances, but the season is long and pitchers always get hurt. There will be opportunities during the season to perform.
If someone wants to make the argument (like Keith Law has) that the O's would have been better off using money on signing international prospects or putting that money toward draft picks, that's one thing. But it's hard to get too upset with the majority of moves the O's have made, especially since most of the contracts signed are short-term deals. Besides maybe Gregg, the O's are not stuck with a truly horrible contract, and even Gregg is signed for just two years.
Considering what the O's have gone through for the last 13 seasons, it's hard to say that the O's are headed for trouble. They've been in a ton of trouble for a while, and while playing in the AL East, things will not get any easier. They still have a ton of work to do, but when is that not the case?
Here's more of what he had to say:
There's certainly nothing wrong with trying to win right now if you have the right parts. But I have thought about the lesson that could be learned from the Astros as I have watched the Orioles since the end of last season. They closed 2010 on a good note. They hired Buck Showalter and, with him at the helm, went 34-23 to end the year.I encourage you to read the whole post. Swafford made some strong points, some of which have been brought up by other baseball analysts, and even O's fans themselves.
So, naturally, they looked around at their very talented division and said, "No rush. We have a good manager, we're making good progress and we have young talent. We can be patient while that young talent develops." Right?
It'd be nice if that were the case, but instead of doing that, the Orioles got very involved in free agency, went out and got J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Gregg. Average age: 31.8.
They're not all old and I don't dislike all of the signings, but why the urgency? Why the apparently desperate need to compete now when they probably won't?
But here are a few points before I get to my main problem with the piece:
- Yes, the O's did sign or trade for all of those players listed above. Hardy, Lee, Guerrero, and Duchscherer are all signed to one-year deals. Gregg signed a two-year deal, and sure, that was far from the best signing. And Reynolds has a guaranteed deal through 2012, with a club option for 2013. I'm not arguing that all of those deals are fantastic and will definitely work out, but they hardly strain the organization's position financially like Carlos Lee's six-year, $100 million deal in 2007 with the Astros.
- The O's did not trade away a bunch of young talent in an effort to get better overnight. The best player the O's traded, David Hernandez, is a reliever. Kam Mickolio and Jim Hoey are also relievers who either couldn't stay healthy or simply weren't very effective (or both), and Brett Jacobson, another reliever, is 24 and hasn't played above Single A. Those players -- four relievers -- still have some value, but not a ton of upside. So it's not like the O's took an enormous gamble or anything on Reynolds or Hardy.
- No one thinks the O's are going to the World Series. Even the most optimistic fans would be thrilled with third place -- not that that's the ultimate goal (it's obviously not), but still. It's possible that Andy MacPhail made a few of the team's moves (like the Guerrero signing) to improve the team in the short term, which would be unfortunate. But even someone like Guerrero could possibly be flipped at the trade deadline for a younger player or two, as could several other veterans.
1) Guerrero, who's signing may block Felix Pie/Nolan Reimold
2) Duchscherer, who may force Chris Tillman (or another young starter) back to Triple A
That's it. Reynolds, Hardy, and Lee are not blocking anyone in the infield. Josh Bell has recently been working out at first base, but he showed last season that he's not close to being ready to assuming any kind of everyday role. Brandon Snyder probably isn't ready either, if he ever will be. With Guerrero serving as the O's designated hitter, Luke Scott will move to left field, which will likely force Pie and Reimold to either the bench or the minors. It would be nice to see both get regular playing time, so in that sense, Guerrero does seem to be blocking them. But, as I've mentioned before, Pie is 26 and Reimold is 27; we're not talking about young up-and-comers here.
Then there's Duchscherer. Duchscherer is 33, and the O's are banking on him returning to form to give the O's another reliable option in the rotation. If he stays healthy (not a guarantee) and pitches well, he may be another player the O's could trade at the deadline. But he was signed for less than $1 million, so if he can't stay healthy or is ineffective, it's not a huge loss. Considering the O's already have several other young starters to choose from -- Brian Matusz (24), Brad Bergesen (25), Jake Arrieta (24), and Tillman (22), and even Zach Britton (23) down the road -- it's not the worst thing to bring in a low-risk, high-reward starter like Duchscherer. What's the worst that could happen? That Duchscherer keeps getting hurt? Or maybe that he stays healthy enough to pitch but isn't effective? If that's the case, the O's aren't required to keep him in the rotation, and it wouldn't be difficult to let him go. It would be nice to give every young starter plenty of chances, but the season is long and pitchers always get hurt. There will be opportunities during the season to perform.
If someone wants to make the argument (like Keith Law has) that the O's would have been better off using money on signing international prospects or putting that money toward draft picks, that's one thing. But it's hard to get too upset with the majority of moves the O's have made, especially since most of the contracts signed are short-term deals. Besides maybe Gregg, the O's are not stuck with a truly horrible contract, and even Gregg is signed for just two years.
Considering what the O's have gone through for the last 13 seasons, it's hard to say that the O's are headed for trouble. They've been in a ton of trouble for a while, and while playing in the AL East, things will not get any easier. They still have a ton of work to do, but when is that not the case?
Thursday, March 3, 2011
O's links: Wieters, Rosenthal, and Reynolds
So the Orioles have won their first three spring training games, which doesn't really matter a whole lot, but is still better than losing all three, I guess. Still, the team's offseason moves have received more attention this year, and it doesn't seem like the O's are being completely ignored as in years past.
Here are a few links from yesterday examining various O's questions and concerns for the next season and future ones as well.
- Heath of Dempsey's Army took issue with an article on Baseball Prospectus listing the most disappointing prospects of all time. On that list was a certain 24-year-old O's catcher: Matt Wieters. Heath disputed Wieters's placement on the list, saying:
- Rob Neyer of SB Nation read Heath's post and tends to agree with him. Here is his succinct offering:
- Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal also wrote about the O's, and he chose to focus on the current state of the organization's farm system. Here's some of what he had to say:
- Kevin Kaduk of Big League Stew interviewed Mark Reynolds, and while there's not much quote-worthy material, it's a good read.
- Kaduk spent some time at the O's new facility in Sarasota, Ed Smith Stadium. After $31 million in renovations, Kaduk has plenty of nice things to say about the place, which, as the title suggests, has been turned "from pit to palace." He also provided several photos of the renovations and upgrades. Really, the place looks fantastic.
- Since yesterday must have been focus on the O's day at Big League Stew, Kaduk also quickly summarized the team's offseason acquisitions and departures and raised five crucial questions. Here's the question that I found must interesting:
Here are a few links from yesterday examining various O's questions and concerns for the next season and future ones as well.
- Heath of Dempsey's Army took issue with an article on Baseball Prospectus listing the most disappointing prospects of all time. On that list was a certain 24-year-old O's catcher: Matt Wieters. Heath disputed Wieters's placement on the list, saying:
Some of the best hitting catchers in recent memory did not even debut until after their age 24 season. Piazza doesn't really count; he got a cup of coffee when he was 23 but at 24, he put up a monster season and took Rookie of the Year. But Jorge Posada? He only had 15 MLB at bats at 24. Victor Martinez had just 61 games and an 87 OPS+. Chris Hoiles had only 6 games under his belt.That's just one part of his analysis; you should check out the rest of the piece as well.
Sure, it would have been great if Wieters had hit the ground running like Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk or Joe Mauer. But catchers typically take awhile longer to develop offensively in the majors. They just do. That's why the Nationals moved Bryce Harper to the outfield and the Royals have moved top prospect Wil Myers from behind the plate. They value their bats more than their catching skills and they know the position will slow their development at the plate.
- Rob Neyer of SB Nation read Heath's post and tends to agree with him. Here is his succinct offering:
"Disappointing" is highly subjective. The Baseball Prospectus crew is naturally disappointed in Wieters, considering they basically anointed him the new Johnny Bench two years ago. But as Dempsey's Army demonstrates, in terms of 24-year-old catchers he's done just fine and still figures to have a solid career. If not better.That's essentially what my opinion is. It's hard not to be a little disappointed with Wieters's production -- particularly at the plate -- so far, but he's still pretty young and brings a lot to the table in terms of defense and controlling the running game. He still has time to improve, and I think he'll be fine.
- Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal also wrote about the O's, and he chose to focus on the current state of the organization's farm system. Here's some of what he had to say:
MacPhail has made some excellent trades, getting a bounty for lefty Erik Bedard in February 2008 and obtaining third baseman Josh Bell for lefty George Sherrill in July 2009. But the Orioles rarely draw much from the minor-league free-agent market and lack the creativity of teams such as the Rays and Jays.I don't think anyone would argue that the O's don't need to keep improving the level of talent in the farm system. In that sense, Rosenthal is right. And his criticism of the team's lack of international scouting has been repeatedly questioned by other baseball writers and analysts, including Keith Law. To keep pace with the Yankees and Red Sox, and really, the entire AL East, the O's need to keep adding young talent through whatever means necessary.
No doubt, the franchise is in a much better place than it was a year ago. But rival executives often refer to the Orioles as a sleeping giant, and the description still applies.
For the Orioles to regain their footing, their farm system needs to gush with talent, not offer dribs and drabs. Right now, in the area that matters most, the O’s aren’t good enough.
- Kevin Kaduk of Big League Stew interviewed Mark Reynolds, and while there's not much quote-worthy material, it's a good read.
- Kaduk spent some time at the O's new facility in Sarasota, Ed Smith Stadium. After $31 million in renovations, Kaduk has plenty of nice things to say about the place, which, as the title suggests, has been turned "from pit to palace." He also provided several photos of the renovations and upgrades. Really, the place looks fantastic.
- Since yesterday must have been focus on the O's day at Big League Stew, Kaduk also quickly summarized the team's offseason acquisitions and departures and raised five crucial questions. Here's the question that I found must interesting:
3. How much of a difference will a full season of Buck Showalter make? The most repeated stat about the Orioles this offseason has been 34-23, which was Baltimore's record after Showalter took over at Camden Yards in 2010. It was a nice run to be sure, but the implication — however serious — that the O's could have played at that clip with last year's collection of talent is misguided.Showalter's biggest hurdle will be to get more production out of guys like Wieters, Adam Jones, Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman (if he's on the roster), and other youngsters making the transition from minor leaguer to full-time MLB regular. If he can do that, the O's should improve mightily.
That said, it'll be interesting to see what Showalter does with this team, which is a hodgepodge of not-fully-realized talent and veteran guys who have been there before. He'll really earn his stripes if he can coax an above-average performance out of a pitching staff that ranks the weakest in the division.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Guerrero, O's still talking
Vladimir Guerrero doesn't exactly have a ton of options left in terms of suitors, so with the Orioles apparently interested in his services, he's listening. And that's what ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting -- that Guerrero and the O's are "making progress in their talks for a 2011 contract."
The O's have already made a few moves this offseason to upgrade the team's lineup (particularly the infield), such as trading for third baseman Mark Reynolds, dealing for shortstop J.J. Hardy, and signing first baseman Derrek Lee. However, Andy MacPhail doesn't appear to be done trying to fix the team's offense and may want Guerrero to be the team's designated hitter. If that happens, Luke Scott would likely see more time in left field since the O's need to keep his bat in the lineup. And that would be bad news for both Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold, who currently seem headed for a time-share role in left field. If Guerrero ends up in Baltimore, the O's could trade one, or both, for pitching depth.
Guerrero is 35, can only DH at this point in his career, and isn't likely to keep posting solid offensive numbers. (Not that a one-year deal is that big of a risk, obviously.) Meanwhile, Reimold is 27 and Pie is 25. Are the O's against giving those two a chance to see what they can do in a split-duty role, or is the team basically convinced at this point of what type of player each guy is?
It's not like the O's will have to break the bank for Guerrero -- they can probably sign him for a few million bucks. But if they do bring him to Baltimore, that may shut the door on the possibility of Reimold or Pie sticking around much longer (unless they both end up as bench guys, which doesn't seem likely).
The O's have already made a few moves this offseason to upgrade the team's lineup (particularly the infield), such as trading for third baseman Mark Reynolds, dealing for shortstop J.J. Hardy, and signing first baseman Derrek Lee. However, Andy MacPhail doesn't appear to be done trying to fix the team's offense and may want Guerrero to be the team's designated hitter. If that happens, Luke Scott would likely see more time in left field since the O's need to keep his bat in the lineup. And that would be bad news for both Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold, who currently seem headed for a time-share role in left field. If Guerrero ends up in Baltimore, the O's could trade one, or both, for pitching depth.
Guerrero is 35, can only DH at this point in his career, and isn't likely to keep posting solid offensive numbers. (Not that a one-year deal is that big of a risk, obviously.) Meanwhile, Reimold is 27 and Pie is 25. Are the O's against giving those two a chance to see what they can do in a split-duty role, or is the team basically convinced at this point of what type of player each guy is?
It's not like the O's will have to break the bank for Guerrero -- they can probably sign him for a few million bucks. But if they do bring him to Baltimore, that may shut the door on the possibility of Reimold or Pie sticking around much longer (unless they both end up as bench guys, which doesn't seem likely).
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
With Lee on board, O's infield makeover is complete
When the Orioles signed Derrek Lee to a one-year deal worth about $8-$10 million, they fortified the right side of the infield (along with Brian Roberts) and completed an obvious offseason goal of improving the entire infield. Along with signing Lee, the O's traded for Mark Reynolds to fill the hole at third base, acquired shortstop J.J. Hardy from the Twins (and infielder Brendan Harris), and re-signed Cesar Izturis to fill a utility role.
With all of those guys on board, the O's will likely have an Opening Day infield that looks like this:
C: Matt Wieters
1B: Derrek Lee
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Mark Reynolds
Not too shabby. And when comparing that to last year's Opening Day infield arrangement, it looks even better:
C: Matt Wieters
1B: Garrett Atkins
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Cesar Izturis
3B: Miguel Tejada
2011's infield is clearly better, but let's examine the offensive abilities of the two (excluding Wieters and Roberts, since their presence doesn't change):
There is only one place where a player in the first table outperforms someone in the second table: Tejada's career on-base percentage is five points higher than Reynolds's OBP. That's it. Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds are clearly better offensively across the board, and they're all, at the very least, minor defensive upgrades at their respective positions as well. Also, Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds have an average age of 30, while Atkins, Izturis, and Tejada had an average age of about 31-32, so the O's got a little younger while also strengthening three positions.
It would be hard to classify any of the moves as long-term solutions, and Reynolds may end up as the only one still in Baltimore after the 2011 season. Still, the moves make the O's better, and because the O's don't have a bunch of infield prospects knocking on the door to the big leagues, they're not blocking any almost-ready minor leaguers either. It's hard to ask for more than that.
With all of those guys on board, the O's will likely have an Opening Day infield that looks like this:
C: Matt Wieters
1B: Derrek Lee
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Mark Reynolds
Not too shabby. And when comparing that to last year's Opening Day infield arrangement, it looks even better:
C: Matt Wieters
1B: Garrett Atkins
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Cesar Izturis
3B: Miguel Tejada
2011's infield is clearly better, but let's examine the offensive abilities of the two (excluding Wieters and Roberts, since their presence doesn't change):
| Player | 2010 OBP | Career OBP | 2010 SLG | Career SLG |
| Atkins | .276 | .350 | .286 | .449 |
| Izturis | .277 | .296 | .268 | .323 |
| Tejada | .312 | .339 | .381 | .462 |
| Player | 2010 OBP | Career OBP | 2010 SLG | Career SLG |
| Lee | .347 | .367 | .428 | .498 |
Hardy | .320 | .323 | .394 | .423 |
Reynolds | .320 | .334 | .433 | .483 |
There is only one place where a player in the first table outperforms someone in the second table: Tejada's career on-base percentage is five points higher than Reynolds's OBP. That's it. Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds are clearly better offensively across the board, and they're all, at the very least, minor defensive upgrades at their respective positions as well. Also, Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds have an average age of 30, while Atkins, Izturis, and Tejada had an average age of about 31-32, so the O's got a little younger while also strengthening three positions.
It would be hard to classify any of the moves as long-term solutions, and Reynolds may end up as the only one still in Baltimore after the 2011 season. Still, the moves make the O's better, and because the O's don't have a bunch of infield prospects knocking on the door to the big leagues, they're not blocking any almost-ready minor leaguers either. It's hard to ask for more than that.
Friday, December 10, 2010
For some reason, O's re-sign Izturis
A day after acquiring a new shortstop, the Orioles decided that they'd like to have their old one back too. Surprisingly, the O's have signed Cesar Izturis to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, according to Orioles Insider's Jeff Zrebiec. The deal apparently also includes some playing time incentives.
Even though the deal will end up only costing $1-$2 million, the decision to bring back Izturis is puzzling at best. J.J. Hardy is obviously better than Izturis in just about every way, so what's the point of spending the money on a backup shortstop like Izturis when a cheaper option like Robert Andino could be used instead?
In just 16 games last year, Andino (0.5 fWAR, 0.4 brWAR) was more valuable than Izturis (-0.3 fWAR, -0.4 brWAR) was in 150 games. Meanwhile, Andino earned the league minimum in 2010 while Izturis made a little over $2.5 million.
Even if Hardy gets hurt and ends up missing time -- which has to be Andy MacPhail's main reason for re-signing Izturis -- Izturis isn't likely to produce much at all. He hit just .230/.277/.268 last season, so it's not like he's any kind of intimidating bat coming off the bench. Hardy is also a better fielder than Izturis at this point in his career, so he won't be a late-game defensive sub at shortstop, either. Izturis could take over for Mark Reynolds at third when the O's have a late lead, but then again, so can Andino, who is a fine defensive infielder himself. Even if any of those possible roles mattered a whole lot, would it make sense to spend $1.5 million for a backup who may not see much of the field?
In the end, if this is the worst decision the O's make this offseason, it's hard to get too upset about it, especially since the deal isn't for a ton of money. But still, it's unlikely that both Izturis and Andino will be on the roster if the O's decide to keep Brendan Harris around, which seems probable since he's still due about $1.75 million in 2011.
If Izturis ends up taking Andino's roster spot, it'll be a shame because not only is Andino younger and cheaper, but he's also probably a better player.
Even though the deal will end up only costing $1-$2 million, the decision to bring back Izturis is puzzling at best. J.J. Hardy is obviously better than Izturis in just about every way, so what's the point of spending the money on a backup shortstop like Izturis when a cheaper option like Robert Andino could be used instead?
In just 16 games last year, Andino (0.5 fWAR, 0.4 brWAR) was more valuable than Izturis (-0.3 fWAR, -0.4 brWAR) was in 150 games. Meanwhile, Andino earned the league minimum in 2010 while Izturis made a little over $2.5 million.
Even if Hardy gets hurt and ends up missing time -- which has to be Andy MacPhail's main reason for re-signing Izturis -- Izturis isn't likely to produce much at all. He hit just .230/.277/.268 last season, so it's not like he's any kind of intimidating bat coming off the bench. Hardy is also a better fielder than Izturis at this point in his career, so he won't be a late-game defensive sub at shortstop, either. Izturis could take over for Mark Reynolds at third when the O's have a late lead, but then again, so can Andino, who is a fine defensive infielder himself. Even if any of those possible roles mattered a whole lot, would it make sense to spend $1.5 million for a backup who may not see much of the field?
In the end, if this is the worst decision the O's make this offseason, it's hard to get too upset about it, especially since the deal isn't for a ton of money. But still, it's unlikely that both Izturis and Andino will be on the roster if the O's decide to keep Brendan Harris around, which seems probable since he's still due about $1.75 million in 2011.
If Izturis ends up taking Andino's roster spot, it'll be a shame because not only is Andino younger and cheaper, but he's also probably a better player.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
O's bring back Uehara, are close to acquiring J.J. Hardy
After a flurry of rumors following the Mark Reynolds trade, the Orioles have apparently made two important moves. First, the O's re-signed Koji Uehara to a one-year deal with a vesting option for 2012. At the moment, other contract details haven't been disclosed yet. And second, the O's are very close to trading for J.J. Hardy of the Twins. According to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun (via Orioles Insider), the O's will receive Hardy and infielder Brendan Harris in exchange for two minor leaguers, rumored to be Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. If the deal is completed, Hardy would become the everyday shortstop, while Harris would likely be the team's utility infielder.
In his post, Connolly also mentions both players' contract situations:
With Hardy, the O's will have a shortstop who can both hold his own at the plate and in the field. Cesar Izturis was a solid shortstop for the O's in terms of fielding, but he was dreadful at the plate -- for his career, Izturis has hit .256/.296/.323 with a 4.9 BB%. Hardy, meanwhile, has a career line of .263/.323/.423 with an 8.1 BB%. Those aren't fantastic numbers, but they are better than Izturis's stats, and again, Hardy also plays strong defense. That's definitely an upgrade.
To me, there's only one negative with the two moves, and it isn't trading the often-injured Hoey or 24-year-old Jacobson, who seems like a decent prospect (though 24 is a little old to still be in Single A). Instead, it's that both Uehara and Hardy have previously missed significant time because of injury, which can happen again at any moment. Most O's fans are already familiar with Uehara's previous inability to stay healthy, but his move to the bullpen seems to have eased many of those worries. Hardy, though, dealt with a wrist injury last season that allowed him to play in just 101 games. He has dealt with several other injuries in his career, but it's worth noting that he has still played in at least 100 games for the last four seasons. Still, the O's probably don't want a shortstop who's going to miss 60 games, but it's at least possible that happens. The presence of Harris alleviates some of those worries because of his ability to play shortstop, but he is probably better suited at third base anyway. But regardless of his injury history, Hardy is easily better than Izturis.
Both moves are ones the O's needed to make. They needed a younger, competent shortstop to take over for Izturis, and they needed to at least shore up the bullpen after trading away David Hernandez to acquire Reynolds. The O's may not be done dealing -- they could still use a first baseman, another reliever, maybe another starter, etc. -- but the O's have seemingly made some clever moves so far. Having Hardy and Reynolds on the left side of the infield also presents a significant improvement over anything the O's have had the last few seasons.
In his post, Connolly also mentions both players' contract situations:
Hardy in his final year of arbitration after making $5.1 million in 2010. He will be a free agent after the 2011 season. Harris signed a two-year, $3.2 million extension with the Twins after the 2009 season. He is owed $1.75 million in 2011.Harris (30) might not be with the O's beyond 2011, so that's not a big deal. Hardy (28), on the other hand, may be someone the O's want to keep around for more than one season. The O's probably won't do this, but they could try to work out a multi-year deal with Hardy, buying out his last arbitration year and ensuring that he stays in Baltimore for more than just one season. Or they could take the more likely option, which is to see how much Hardy makes via arbitration, pay him, and see how 2011 plays out before possibly negotiating a future contract. Since Hardy has had his fair share of injuries, neither is really a bad route to take, but the O's would risk repeating their 2010 search for a shortstop if Hardy opts to sign with another team.
With Hardy, the O's will have a shortstop who can both hold his own at the plate and in the field. Cesar Izturis was a solid shortstop for the O's in terms of fielding, but he was dreadful at the plate -- for his career, Izturis has hit .256/.296/.323 with a 4.9 BB%. Hardy, meanwhile, has a career line of .263/.323/.423 with an 8.1 BB%. Those aren't fantastic numbers, but they are better than Izturis's stats, and again, Hardy also plays strong defense. That's definitely an upgrade.
To me, there's only one negative with the two moves, and it isn't trading the often-injured Hoey or 24-year-old Jacobson, who seems like a decent prospect (though 24 is a little old to still be in Single A). Instead, it's that both Uehara and Hardy have previously missed significant time because of injury, which can happen again at any moment. Most O's fans are already familiar with Uehara's previous inability to stay healthy, but his move to the bullpen seems to have eased many of those worries. Hardy, though, dealt with a wrist injury last season that allowed him to play in just 101 games. He has dealt with several other injuries in his career, but it's worth noting that he has still played in at least 100 games for the last four seasons. Still, the O's probably don't want a shortstop who's going to miss 60 games, but it's at least possible that happens. The presence of Harris alleviates some of those worries because of his ability to play shortstop, but he is probably better suited at third base anyway. But regardless of his injury history, Hardy is easily better than Izturis.
Both moves are ones the O's needed to make. They needed a younger, competent shortstop to take over for Izturis, and they needed to at least shore up the bullpen after trading away David Hernandez to acquire Reynolds. The O's may not be done dealing -- they could still use a first baseman, another reliever, maybe another starter, etc. -- but the O's have seemingly made some clever moves so far. Having Hardy and Reynolds on the left side of the infield also presents a significant improvement over anything the O's have had the last few seasons.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Reactions to the Mark Reynolds trade
Yesterday the Orioles acquired third baseman Mark Reynolds from the Diamondbacks in exchange for relievers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. Andy MacPhail said that he wanted to improve the team's offense and overall team power, and he did just that with this move.
Reynolds, 27, has lots of power and hit 121 home runs in four seasons with Arizona. After a breakout season in 2009 -- .260/.349/.543, 44 HR -- Reynolds took a big step back last season, hitting .198/.320/.433. He still hit 32 home runs, but the O's hope that they're not trading for the guy who's going to replicate that type of season in Baltimore.
With Reynolds's immense power, though, comes numerous strikeouts; he struck out more than 200 times in each of the last three seasons. The linked article above also casually mentions that those are the three highest strikeout totals in MLB history. So Reynolds will immediately upgrade the O's combined power and slugging percentage, but he will also strike out more than once per game. That's the trade-off the O's are making for Reynolds's services (besides, you know, the actual trade).
Reynolds is currently in the middle of a three-year, $14.5 million contract that he signed with Arizona. His deal also includes a 2013 team option. Last year, the first year in that deal, Reynolds made $500,000. In 2011 his salary bumps up to $5 million, and he'll earn $7.5 million in 2012. Reynolds's team option for 2013 is $11 million, with a $500,000 buyout. So the O's will be paying Reynolds a decent amount for his services, but his contract certainly seems reasonable. Also, the O's control him for at least the next two seasons for not a huge sum of money. If Reynolds fails to impress, then the O's can pay him his buyout money in 2013 and move along.
My take is that I like this move. The trade seems pretty even, especially since Hernandez (25) and Mickolio (26) are under team control and are not expensive. But they are also relievers and can be replaced; that is, if the O's handle the bullpen situation right (i.e., not overpaying for relievers). The deal will seem much better if Reynolds reverts back to his 2009 form instead of 2010's, but it's also likely that he'll finish 2011 as a combination of the two. I seriously doubt that he'll hit under .200 again, but that doesn't mean he'll slug at a .543 clip again either. But for this trade to be effective, he doesn't have to.
Other reactions:
- "Though Reynolds will head east after the first season by a qualified player of more Ks (211) than BA (.198), it's a risk the Orioles had to take. They've struggled to attract any free agents this offseason with their standing at the bottom of the AL East and Reynolds will bring the sort of over-the-wall power that only Luke Scott(notes) could provide last season. He hit 44 and 32 homers the last two seasons and he'll definitely need to record a number between those two — as well as avoid setting the single-season strikeout record again —to make himself a winning import for the O's." [Kevin Kaduk, Big League Stew]
- "Whether it’s the right move for the Orioles is open to debate. Hernandez couldn’t cut it as a starter, and if you’re going to move young talent, make it a reliever or two. Only the best relievers in the league come close to 2.5 WAR in a season, and I don’t think Hernandez or Mickolio are close to that yet, although Hernandez, at least, looks like he might do well (all those fly balls will be scary in the desert, though). There is something to be said for the Orioles just having a non-horrible presence at third (or first, if that’s what they decide to do, although Reynolds’ overall offense is much less impressive there). Unless one of the traded relievers turns into another Joakim Soria, this probably won’t hurt them too badly in the long-term (when they might be able to contend in the AL East), either, although Reynolds himself isn’t likely to be much help then. Overall, this looks like a fair trade for both sides that fills a need for the Orioles for the next couple of seasons." [Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs]
- "As for the guys Baltimore sent to the desert, losing David Hernandez is a bit of a blow. I think Hernandez will be, someday, a successful major league pitcher. However, his path is almost certainly that of a reliever at this point and you shouldn't hesitate to part with relief arms to improve the club. Hernandez did manage to increase his K rate to something close to his minor league rate in 2010 but he was still essentially a flyball pitcher and figures to do better in Arizona. I have little doubt that he may have success going forward but he won't be as valuable as Reynolds has the chance to be." [Heath, Dempsey's Army]
- "The book on Reynolds is simple: plenty of power, plenty of strikeouts, low average. He’s coming here to provide much-needed power, plain and simple. Not much else to it. It isn’t what I’d call a great acquisition, but it is appropriate. . . . Ultimately, I can’t say I love this. And if it’s the only big move they make, I’ll probably hate it. For now I suppose it suffices to say that it seems to improve the team at least somewhat. That’s a start." [Neal Shaffer, The Loss Column]
- "Andy MacPhail needs to inject some power and run production into the Orioles lineup and he came up a little short on Victor Martinez, which left him with a list of available players that all have some kind of drawback. Personally, I would have been happy to take Adam Dunn and split him between first base and DH in spite of his strikeout total, but he's got some of the same issues as Reynolds and he got $56 million from the White Sox." [Peter Schmuck, The Schmuck Stops Here]
Contract information via Cot's Baseball Contracts
Reynolds, 27, has lots of power and hit 121 home runs in four seasons with Arizona. After a breakout season in 2009 -- .260/.349/.543, 44 HR -- Reynolds took a big step back last season, hitting .198/.320/.433. He still hit 32 home runs, but the O's hope that they're not trading for the guy who's going to replicate that type of season in Baltimore.
With Reynolds's immense power, though, comes numerous strikeouts; he struck out more than 200 times in each of the last three seasons. The linked article above also casually mentions that those are the three highest strikeout totals in MLB history. So Reynolds will immediately upgrade the O's combined power and slugging percentage, but he will also strike out more than once per game. That's the trade-off the O's are making for Reynolds's services (besides, you know, the actual trade).
Reynolds is currently in the middle of a three-year, $14.5 million contract that he signed with Arizona. His deal also includes a 2013 team option. Last year, the first year in that deal, Reynolds made $500,000. In 2011 his salary bumps up to $5 million, and he'll earn $7.5 million in 2012. Reynolds's team option for 2013 is $11 million, with a $500,000 buyout. So the O's will be paying Reynolds a decent amount for his services, but his contract certainly seems reasonable. Also, the O's control him for at least the next two seasons for not a huge sum of money. If Reynolds fails to impress, then the O's can pay him his buyout money in 2013 and move along.
My take is that I like this move. The trade seems pretty even, especially since Hernandez (25) and Mickolio (26) are under team control and are not expensive. But they are also relievers and can be replaced; that is, if the O's handle the bullpen situation right (i.e., not overpaying for relievers). The deal will seem much better if Reynolds reverts back to his 2009 form instead of 2010's, but it's also likely that he'll finish 2011 as a combination of the two. I seriously doubt that he'll hit under .200 again, but that doesn't mean he'll slug at a .543 clip again either. But for this trade to be effective, he doesn't have to.
Other reactions:
- "Though Reynolds will head east after the first season by a qualified player of more Ks (211) than BA (.198), it's a risk the Orioles had to take. They've struggled to attract any free agents this offseason with their standing at the bottom of the AL East and Reynolds will bring the sort of over-the-wall power that only Luke Scott(notes) could provide last season. He hit 44 and 32 homers the last two seasons and he'll definitely need to record a number between those two — as well as avoid setting the single-season strikeout record again —to make himself a winning import for the O's." [Kevin Kaduk, Big League Stew]
- "Whether it’s the right move for the Orioles is open to debate. Hernandez couldn’t cut it as a starter, and if you’re going to move young talent, make it a reliever or two. Only the best relievers in the league come close to 2.5 WAR in a season, and I don’t think Hernandez or Mickolio are close to that yet, although Hernandez, at least, looks like he might do well (all those fly balls will be scary in the desert, though). There is something to be said for the Orioles just having a non-horrible presence at third (or first, if that’s what they decide to do, although Reynolds’ overall offense is much less impressive there). Unless one of the traded relievers turns into another Joakim Soria, this probably won’t hurt them too badly in the long-term (when they might be able to contend in the AL East), either, although Reynolds himself isn’t likely to be much help then. Overall, this looks like a fair trade for both sides that fills a need for the Orioles for the next couple of seasons." [Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs]
- "As for the guys Baltimore sent to the desert, losing David Hernandez is a bit of a blow. I think Hernandez will be, someday, a successful major league pitcher. However, his path is almost certainly that of a reliever at this point and you shouldn't hesitate to part with relief arms to improve the club. Hernandez did manage to increase his K rate to something close to his minor league rate in 2010 but he was still essentially a flyball pitcher and figures to do better in Arizona. I have little doubt that he may have success going forward but he won't be as valuable as Reynolds has the chance to be." [Heath, Dempsey's Army]
- "The book on Reynolds is simple: plenty of power, plenty of strikeouts, low average. He’s coming here to provide much-needed power, plain and simple. Not much else to it. It isn’t what I’d call a great acquisition, but it is appropriate. . . . Ultimately, I can’t say I love this. And if it’s the only big move they make, I’ll probably hate it. For now I suppose it suffices to say that it seems to improve the team at least somewhat. That’s a start." [Neal Shaffer, The Loss Column]
- "Andy MacPhail needs to inject some power and run production into the Orioles lineup and he came up a little short on Victor Martinez, which left him with a list of available players that all have some kind of drawback. Personally, I would have been happy to take Adam Dunn and split him between first base and DH in spite of his strikeout total, but he's got some of the same issues as Reynolds and he got $56 million from the White Sox." [Peter Schmuck, The Schmuck Stops Here]
Contract information via Cot's Baseball Contracts
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