With wounded O's healing, tough roster decisions on the horizon

Some injured Orioles players are starting to get healthy. Here are some news items on the "big three" injured players, if you will:

- Brian Roberts is beginning a rehab assignment at Bowie today, and he could be back in Baltimore in the near future. Per Roch Kubatko, Buck Showalter said that he wants Roberts to spend the full allotment (20 days) to reacclimate himself to playing the game again on an everyday (or nearly everyday) basis. If all goes well and Roberts suffers no setbacks, he'll be in Baltimore in mid-June. Considering Roberts hasn't played in a major league game (or any other game) for more than a year, that's great news.

-Nolan Reimold, still dealing with a herniated disk in his cervical spine, could also return in June, though there's currently no timetable for that return. He is scheduled to receive a second epidural injection on Friday, but there's no guarantee that helps. Reimold's recovery doesn't sound as promising as Roberts's, at the moment, but whenever the pain subsides, Reimold should be able to return relatively quickly.

- And Zach Britton is going to be making a rehab start in Bowie on Saturday, and he could return to the O's rotation soon. As long as he's healthy, Britton would make a nice upgrade over Tommy Hunter and give the O's a rotation with Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, and Britton, in some order. Not bad.

If there's one thing the O's could use, it's more depth. Some new faces like Xavier Avery and Steve Tolleson have played well, but a healthy Roberts and Reimold would give the lineup an extra punch that it's lacked.

Other names: Matt Lindstrom could be returning soon. Mark Reynolds and Endy Chavez are also on the mend, though it does seem like they're both superfluous at this point. Chavez, signed to a one-year, $1.5 million deal in the offseason, didn't hit at all in his first few weeks with the team, and the rookie Avery may actually be an upgrade over him. Avery may not continue to play as well as he has, but he's earned the chance to stay in the lineup and play every day in left field. It's not like getting rid of Chavez would be any big loss, either. Reynolds, on the other hand, is making a bit more than Chavez this season -- $7.5 million, to be exact. But like Chavez, there's little chance that he'll be back with the team beyond this season, as he has a 2013 club option for $11 million (with a $500,000 buyout). The O's and Buck Showalter have finally come to their senses and realized that Reynolds is not a competent, major league third baseman, so his only real role with this team is at first base or designated hitter. It's unlikely the O's will simply drop Reynolds because of the salary he's due, but if he's not hitting, he has no value. They'll likely seek a trade, but it's hard to believe another team would even be willing to take on his contract. You could probably say the same thing about Kevin Gregg, who had actually looked better until his outing Monday night.

Oh, and don't forget about Miguel Tejada at Norfolk, who seems destined to join this team, for some reason.

If Roberts, Reimold, and Reynolds all return at about the same time, the O's will have some decisions to make. And if it were up to me, here's what the infield/outfield depth would look like (presuming everyone is healthy, and keeping the catching situation the same):

Infield:
1B Chris Davis
2B Brian Roberts
SS J.J. Hardy
3B Robert Andino
Bench: Wilson Betemit, Ryan Flaherty, Steve Tolleson

To make room for Roberts, I'd release Nick Johnson. I've been impressed with what little we've seen from Tolleson, though I guess his roster spot is expendable when Reynolds is ready to return. Still, I'm not sure I wouldn't choose Tolleson instead, considering he can actually play some defense at third. I'm also not sure if Tolleson has any options left, but since he's 28, I doubt it. Flaherty hasn't hit well at all, but he also has the ability to fill in at just about every infield position and both corner outfield positions, which is useful. That flexibility, and the fact that he's a Rule 5 pick, should keep him on the roster.

Playing Andino at third keeps his glove in the lineup, and even though he's been slumping lately, I think that's the right move. When he's not at third, he also provides some nice infield depth at second base and shortstop.

Outfield:
LF Xavier Avery
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH/Depth: Nolan Reimold

I'm not quite sure that Avery continues to post an on-base percentage around .350, but I like that he hits line drives and works the count. He's also more than willing to take a walk. I've never really been a big fan of Reimold's outfield defense, so DHing him keeps his bat in the lineup. It also keeps Avery's glove in, and he's been pretty solid. Reimold's obviously also struggled to stay healthy, so maybe not playing in the field every day, or even every other day, keeps him fresher. Oh, and Reimold would take Bill Hall's roster spot.

I seriously doubt the O's choose to get rid of Reynolds, Johnson, and Chavez, but I think it's the right move. But until everyone is completely healthy and ready to go, there's no hurry in making any of those decisions just yet.

More on Wieters's power surge

Behind Jeremy Guthrie's strong start (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 10 K, 3 BB), the Orioles beat the Rays again last night, this time 6-2. The O's scored all of their runs via the long ball -- a line-drive solo shot by Nolan Reimold, a three-run bomb by Chris Davis, and a two-run blast by Matt Wieters.

The Wieters home run is particularly noteworthy for three reasons:

1) It was his third homer in three games, and it gives him 20 on the season. It also raises his slugging percentage to .449, which is top five among qualified catchers.

2) He hit the bomb off of Matt Moore, who many analysts and scouts consider to be the best pitching prospect in baseball.

3) It highlights just how well Wieters is hitting against left-handed pitching this season. Take a look:

vs. RH: 367 PA, .231/.283/.365
vs. LH: 133 PA, .348/.429/.696

So that's a little weird, especially since his career splits aren't that crazy.

Career vs. RH: 974 PA, .264/.325/.397
Career vs. LH: 410 PA, .267/.327/.453

Much of that jump in slugging percentage against left-handers is because of his performance this season, so it remains to be seen whether it's legitimate or sort of fluky. I'd probably lean towards fluky, especially since Wieters has a .400 BABIP against lefties and a .243 BABIP against righties this season.

Regardless, Wieters is on a roll lately, and it's never a bad thing to hit for more power.

Deciphering Showalter's logic

Here's Buck Showalter on Vladimir Guerrero getting the day off:

“I talked to him today about [his wrist]. I wanted to make sure that the wrist, that wasn’t bothering him. He’s always a pretty level guy. I can tell in the dugout he’s been a little frustrated lately because he’s trying so hard,” Showalter said. “He’s hit a couple balls on the button right at somebody, and you can see he’s had a little different response afterwards that he usually doesn’t have. He’s a proud man, and I want to treat him with the respect that he has coming.”

And here's Showalter again, speaking about Nolan Reimold after last night's 6-4 win:

“Nolan’s a strong guy with a lot of skills,” Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. “He’s got some skills that could play up here if he can grasp some of the small things, and tonight he got a good return for some of the work he’s been putting in. I know he was excited. So were we.”

Showalter was discussing Reimold because he hit a walkoff, two-run homer in the 10th inning in last night's game. Showalter, though, is talking about Guerrero and Reimold like there's a massive difference between the two. From Buck's quotes, you get the sense that he thinks Guerrero has been dealing with an injury and is hitting into some tough luck, but that he still deserves a consistent spot in the lineup. And in Reimold's case, Buck believes that he's got talent but still has a lot to prove.

You'd think Guerrero would be grossly outperforming Reimold. But that's not the case:

Guerrero's 2011: 393 PA, .274/.310/.387
Reimold's 2011: 152 PA, .215/.296/.400

Both of those batting lines are bad. Guerrero's numbers are slightly better and have been accumulated in 241 more plate appearances. But Guerrero has a steady role -- DHing every day and batting in the cleanup spot as long as he's healthy -- while Reimold sits every few days and didn't start playing more until Luke Scott's injury ended his season.

Showalter seems to be viewing Guerrero as the career .318/.380/.554 hitter who no manager would ever consider benching. But Vlad is not close to being that guy. When O's fans look at Guerrero, they see a 36-year-old designated hitter who won't be in Baltimore after this season. They see a guy who's not getting the job done, yet he's being placed in the cleanup spot game after game. And they see a guy who is preventing lineup flexibility because he can't play anywhere in the field. With Vlad in the lineup, the O's can't:

• DH Mark Reynolds, Chris Davis, or Josh Bell or at least use them in some kind of 1B/3B/DH rotation;
• give any of the outfielders a chance to DH and rest their legs; or
• allow Matt Wieters to stay in the lineup once every four or five days without having to catch.

The Orioles don't owe Guerrero anything. Well, I take that back: They owe him the rest of this year's salary and the $3 million of his deal that's deferred until 2016-2017. But they don't have to "respect" him by putting his name in the lineup every single game. That doesn't mean they should badmouth him or throw him under the bus for not having a good season. Guerrero has had plenty of opportunities to turn things around, but it's just not happening. And only truly bad teams keep running out players like Guerrero -- guys who barely have any value, aren't helping the team, and are blocking younger guys from having the chance to play every day.

Reimold is not a star. He may end up not being an everyday player. But it's a little embarrassing that the O's still don't have a clue if Reimold, who turns 28 in two months, can be someone they rely on for next season and beyond. The Orioles are terrible at developing young players at the major league level, and how they've handled many of their talented prospects this season is just another example.

Finding fault with the O's decision-making

Want to know why some are criticizing the J.J. Hardy signing, despite its apparent team-friendly ramifications? Just take a look at who pitched out of the Orioles' bullpen during last night's 15-10 loss to the Red Sox:

• Troy Patton, 25
• Jason Berken, 27
• Michael Gonzalez, 33
• Mark Worrell, 28
• Chris Jakubauskas, 32

Patton probably threw the best out of all of them, and Berken was only in the game for two pitches, allowing a hit. But the latter three -- Gonzalez, Worrell, and Jakubauskas -- combined to allow eight runs in the eighth inning, which locked down the game for the Red Sox. Gonzalez and Jakubauskas have been bad all season, but Worrell was just promoted from Triple-A Norfolk, and he didn't look all that impressive either.

So why did I include the ages of those pitchers? Because despite Andy MacPhail's current philosophy to "grow the arms and buy the bats," the O's don't have that many arms to show for it. Yes, I understand that most of the young, high-ceiling pitchers in Baltimore and in the O's organization are starting pitchers, as they should be. Also, there's no sense in promoting pitchers to fill out the bullpen just because they're young and necessarily not ready to be in a major league rotation. But why has it taken so long for a guy like Patton to pitch in Baltimore this season? He seems healthy now, and he's still rather young. He should be given the chance to pitch in more than a few games, even if he pitches poorly.

The O's don't have nearly enough pitching depth. Without a doubt, they still need to get younger and better. It doesn't make much sense to hold onto guys (or pay them a bunch of money, for that matter) who won't help this current team four, five, and six years (etc.) down the road. That's not to say that there can't be a couple of guys like Jakubauskas, Mark Hendrickson, and Worrell in the team's bullpen for various stretches. Every team works with bullpen fill-ins from time to time. But these types of guys show up in the O's bullpen year after year. The only homegrown reliever who's really any good right now is Jim Johnson, and even he should probably be stretched out into a starter if the O's aren't going to deal the 28-year-old. And that's just talking about relievers, who are supposed to be failed starters or guys who can't throw multiple innings at a time. It should be much easier to assemble a decent, young bullpen corps than a competent starting rotation. Yet, the O's can't even accomplish that feat.

Where is all of the pitching talent for a team that annually picks at the top of the draft? Shouldn't someone like Hardy, and others, be used as bait to bring in prospects?

I'm essentially ranting at this point, but here's another questionable move: I turned the game off in the middle of that horrible eighth inning, but apparently Josh Bell pinch-hit for Felix Pie in the bottom of the eighth. He even singled, which is great. But in the ninth, he stayed in to play left field. For one inning, that's not really a big deal. But isn't he a third baseman, and at the very least a corner infielder? Why put him out there at all? That's another situation to examine: If Bell is on the roster, he should play. And if he's not going to play, he should be back in Norfolk playing every day. But he may only be in Baltimore for a few days, so who knows.

Nolan Reimold has been one of the O's most productive hitters this season, and it still took a few injuries to get him in the daily lineup. Vladimir Guerrero and Luke Scott will likely both return from the disabled list soon, and I have no doubt that they'll immediately return to the lineup, moving Reimold back to the bench. What kind of decision is that for a team that's nearly 20 games under .500? Don't they want to know if Reimold is a talented, cost-effective player who they can plug into the lineup for the next few years?

Basically, I don't trust the O's to make sound long-term decisions. And even the short-term ones don't always make much sense.

The O's still aren't developing younger players

The Orioles lost again last night, but that's not surprising considering how they've been playing lately. The loss included bad starting pitching, terrible relief pitching, and mediocre hitting -- all things that the O's excel at right now. (For what it's worth, Matt Wieters did steal a base [the first of his career], which is something that should never happen.)

It's hard to watch the O's at the moment for obvious reasons; it's never fun to tune in to watch your team lose night in and night out. But something that's even more troubling is an issue that has been plaguing the O's for more than a decade: They still aren't developing their young talent.

Let's take a look at O's players 27 years old and younger and how they're doing. Sure, 27 seems like an arbitrary number and isn't necessarily "young," but it's my list. Here they are, with hitters listed first, then pitchers.

Adam Jones: .283/.326/.457. Jones, who turns 26 on August 1, was having a very good season a few weeks ago before he started to slump a bit and his numbers took a tumble. Still, his numbers are still up slightly and he's on pace to have his best season in Baltimore. It's somewhat concerning that FanGraphs doesn't rate his defense very highly, and the same is true this season. I've wondered why Jones seems to make several fantastic, flashy plays but tends to have a few defensive lapses here and there and not always make the routine plays. I still think he's a pretty good center fielder, but he just may not be an elite one. The same can be said of his skills at the plate; he's not necessarily going to be an elite hitter, but he can be a productive hitter who isn't batting at the top of the lineup. Jones hasn't developed (yet) into a star, per se, but he's still one of the best young players the O's have.

Matt Wieters: .269/.319/.413. The 25-year-old Wieters, the lone O's All-Star this season, still seems to make many people angry because he's not hitting like Joe Mauer. Because of his pre-O's hype, many expected him to completely alter the entire franchise with his amazing abilities. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened, but he's still an intriguing piece. Thanks to his .288/.340/.412 batting line in 385 plate appearances in his rookie year (2009), Wieters probably set the bar a little too high, too early. He hasn't been able to hit for that average or get on base that often since then, but he is hitting for as much power this season and has shown signs that he may be able to hit for even more. It is surprising that with his eye at the plate he doesn't walk more (6.7 BB% this season) -- though he did walk three times last night. While he still has work to do at the plate, Wieters has developed into one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball. He's caught 24 of 54 runners (44.4 percent stolen base percentage), far and away the best among all qualified MLB catchers. (The next closest is Alex Avila, at 36.9 percent.) FanGraphs rates his defense the highest among all catchers as well, which is also a top reason why he's leading the O's with a WAR of 2.3.

Nick Markakis: .293/.339/.385. Markakis, 27, has been on fire over the last few weeks and has turned his season around. He's still not walking a ton or hitting for a whole lot of power, but he's been much better lately. Check out my recent post on Markakis for more analysis.

Nolan Reimold: .271/.362/.492. Reimold turns 28 in October, and the O's still have no idea if he's an everyday player or not. Buck Showalter obviously doesn't think too highly of him or else he wouldn't be mostly benching Reimold when a lefty isn't on the mound or pinch-hitting Felix Pie for him. I've written about Reimold plenty lately, so I don't have much more to say. But I will add this: I don't have much faith in the O's playing well in the second half of the season, but I do hope they give Reimold, and maybe some other younger players in Triple-A, some playing time that's being wasted on guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee.

Mark Reynolds: .230/.350/.504. Like Markakis, Reynolds, who turns 28 in August, has turned it on lately and has been hitting the cover off the ball. Unlike Markakis, many of those hits have been home runs. I'm not sure if he's quite this good or not, but he's hitting for a lot of power and is getting on base. He also walks much more than anyone on the team, another valuable skill. Under Reynolds's current contract, he's due to make $7.5 million next season and has a club option for $11 million (with a $0.5 million buyout). Compared with someone like J.J. Hardy, who will likely be looking to cash in as a free agent, Reynolds is still under team control for at least one more season. There's value in that, especially if the O's want to deal him before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Reynolds has been an absolutely terrible defender at third base this year, and he'll probably need to be moved to either 1B or DH. If the O's had a better option at third, it's possible that Reynolds would have already been moved across the infield to play first. But they don't, and that may play a part in the O's holding onto Reynolds instead of dealing him.

Felix Pie: .231/.244/.282. Pie, 26, probably isn't anything better than a fourth outfielder (if that). Sure, he doesn't receive consistent playing time, but he's never really showed the ability to hit or get on base. He has some value as a defensive replacement and a runner, but that's about it. Sorry, Felix.

Zach Britton: 3.47 ERA, 3.82 xFIP. At 23, Britton has taken over the role as the most promising pitcher on the O's roster. Britton has already thrown over 100 innings, so it's probable that the O's will limit the rookie's workload in the second half of the season. With the way the other young starters have pitched, Britton and Jeremy Guthrie are basically carrying the load right now. Britton (1.7) is second in WAR among all rookie pitchers behind Michael Pineda of the Mariners (2.5). Not bad at all.

Brian Matusz: 8.77 ERA, 5.06 xFIP. Matusz (24) is supposed to be in the O's rotation right now, providing another reliable starting option. Instead, he's back in Triple-A Norfolk after a frustrating, awful return from the disabled list. Much has been written about Matusz's reduced velocity, and it's possible that he's still hurt. But if he never recovers that velocity, he'll have to learn to pitch a new way. It won't be easy, but Matusz still has the secondary stuff to be an effective starter even without that low-90s fastball.

Jake Arrieta: 4.90 ERA, 4.33 xFIP. Like Matusz, the 25-year-old Arrieta has disappointed (though not as much). The frustrating thing about Arrieta is that he has the stuff to be effective, but he can't seem to find the strike zone consistently. He's walking 4.44 batters per nine, which is way too many. He walked four again last night in an ineffective outing against the Red Sox. And there's also a concern that Arrieta may have some kind of elbow injury. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.

Chris Tillman: 4.69 ERA, 4.86 xFIP. There's not a whole lot to say about Tillman (23) right now. Tillman received 10 starts at the beginning of the season, and he pitched OK at times. His big issue, though, was his inability to stock around past the fifth inning, because he tends to throw lots of pitches each inning. When he was demoted, instead of returning to Norfolk and dominating Triple-A hitters in an effort to get back to Baltimore, he's still struggling, walking too many batters and not striking out enough either. I'll be surprised if he doesn't return to the O's at some point later in the season, but he has plenty left to prove. It's also worth mentioning that he's about four months younger than Britton.

Brason Berkensen: 5.90 ERA, 4.06 xFIP; 5.92 ERA, 4.39 xFIP. Jason Berken (27) and Brad Bergesen (turns 26 in September) aren't quite the same -- Bergesen is younger and probably a little better -- but I'm lumping them together because they're both pitching out of the bullpen and haven't been very good. Both have pitched well at times this year, but they're essentially the mop-up crew now (you could add Alfredo Simon to that group, too). Whenever the O's are down by more than a few runs, one of them is usually the guy the O's turn to to get through the next few innings. Sure, there's value in that if it's done properly, but I have a hard time believing that either guy will ever be effective over an entire season (especially in the AL East).

-----

There's also a few guys in Norfolk -- Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell, Ryan Adams, Troy Patton, Matt Angle -- who have some promise, but that's not much to choose from. The goal all along was for the guys above to take the next step (or several steps) forward, but only a few have really done that.

Nolan Reimold vs. Felix Pie

Lately, Buck Showalter has gone a little overboard when it comes to overmanaging. He mostly does this with the bullpen, but another example presented itself last night. Trailing 5-4 in the top of the ninth, the Orioles had a runner on first with two outs and Nolan Reimold due up. Showalter decided to pinch-hit Felix Pie for Reimold; Pie then struck out to end the game.

So here's the question: Why pinch-hit Pie for Reimold? Simply to have Pie, a lefty, in to face the right-handed Craig Kimbrel? Does that really make much sense? Recently I looked at whether Reimold was some left-handed hitting specialist. He's not. So let's look at Reimold vs. Pie, both in general and against right-handed pitching.

Reimold vs. all: 603 PA, .263/.348/.442, 22 HR
Reimold vs. RH: 359 PA, .261/.343/.430, 13 HR

Pie vs. all: 991 PA, .253/.299/.381, 17 HR
Pie vs. RH: 815 PA, .267/.310/.404, 14 HR

So Reimold is both better against right-handed pitching and a much better hitter in general. Pie has some value for the O's -- defensively, and also as a runner late in games. But unless he's going to be used to hit in the pitcher's spot in NL ballparks or to pinch-hit for someone like Robert Andino when a righty is on the mound, that's really it. Pie should never replace someone like Reimold at the plate; choosing to do so doesn't make much sense at all.

Showalter does seem to like to play the right/lefty game a lot, and that had to be why Pie hit for Reimold. I'd really like to hear the rationale for such a move. I'm also hoping that Pie's higher batting average against right-handed pitching (.267 vs. Reimold's .261) wasn't the reason for the move. Maybe Showalter likes batting average -- who knows.

Basically, though, I'm growing tired of the O's refusing to make logical decisions. Most fans would rather see Reimold in the lineup every day instead of Vladimir Guerrero. Most fans would rather see Koji Uehara or Jim Johnson pitching in a critical situation rather than Kevin Gregg. And I'm starting to get the feeling that most fans would like to see Blake Davis get more playing time than Andino, even though Davis has only been on the major league club for a few weeks.

Overall, there isn't a whole lot that Showalter can do to change this club. He's not the one that put this roster together, and it's obvious that the O's need more talent in order to compete for an entire season. But micromanaging to the level of pinch-hitting Pie for Reimold is ridiculous. I'm sure that Showalter is trying to do everything in his power to end this current slide (2-8 in their last 10), but enough is enough.

The inflexibility of the Orioles

I was going to give this post a title of "The inflexibility of Buck," but I don't think all of these problems/issues are solely his fault. For example, it wasn't Buck Showalter's decision to sign Vladimir Guerrero (more on that below). Also, I like Showalter (who now has a 69-64 record in Baltimore) and think he's the best manager the O's have had in years. But as the Jim Riggleman-Nationals fiasco recently demonstrated, it's easy to overrate baseball managers and believe that most of them are difference makers. Some of them are, sure. But most of them? Probably not.

Basically, the O's are a below-average team. This is not news. The O's need to get better in several key areas, and even the players and front office personnel would admit that. But after signing a player to fill a specific role, a team sometimes needs to understand that it made a mistake. If no other options are available, then it's normally acceptable to keep using that player in that role. But when other, more intriguing options are available, it only hurts a team to compound that initial mistake by continuing to use said player in a role that just isn't working. Yes, that's a vague description, but here's how it relates to the O's:

Vladimir Guerrero

Guerrero is one of the most exciting baseball players I've ever watched. It would have been a real treat if he had played on the O's during the prime of his career. Sadly, that time has passed. When the O's signed Guerrero to a one-year, $8 million deal in the offseason, I was mostly against it. The issue wasn't just that the O's were overpaying Guerrero, but that as the team's designated hitter, he would clog the roster with a player who can't play in the field anymore. Essentially, he's done just that. With the exception of games in NL stadiums, Guerrero has been in the lineup in most O's games. The O's rarely decide to bench Guerrero and DH someone else, meaning that Luke Scott has to play in the field if the O's want his bat in the lineup.

If Guerrero were hitting, that wouldn't be very important. But he's not. Guerrero is currently batting .282/.313/.386 with six home runs, which is not the kind of production the O's want from their designated hitter. (Here's more on Guerrero's mediocre season from Daniel Moroz of Camden Crazies.) So Guerrero is not hitting for much power or getting on base at a high rate, and yet he's in the lineup every day as the team's DH. Oh, and he continues to bat fourth -- another perplexing decision.

The initial decision to sign Guerrero is not looking good, and unfortunately there's no way to go back and un-sign him. But just because he's on the roster doesn't mean that Showalter has to keep putting Guerrero's name in the lineup every game -- especially in the fourth spot. Not only should Guerrero be moved down in the batting order, but he should sit more often as well. The argument that the O's are trying to pump up his trade value by putting his name in the lineup so often, at this point, is ridiculous. It's not impossible that some AL team in a few weeks makes some kind of offer for Guerrero, but the O's would get next to nothing in return. In fact, they should be happy if another team simply agrees to absorb the rest of Guerrero's salary ($3 million of which, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, is deferred without interest until the 2016-2017 season).

Guerrero's presence on the roster is not helping the team, and it's actually negatively affecting the O's in other ways (listed below).

Nolan Reimold

The O's treatment of Reimold is baffling. I won't make the argument that he's some kind of defensive wizard in left field. But as a 27-year-old who has demonstrated the ability to hit major league pitching, he deserves the chance to play regularly.

In 2009, Reimold hit .279/.365/.466 with 15 homers in 411 plate appearances. Unfortunately, he battled several injuries in 2010 and only batted .207/.282/.328 in 131 plate appearances that season. But the injuries obviously affected his play across the board; Showalter has admitted (a few times, actually) that Reimold wasn't the same player in 2010. Then, because he still had an option left, the O's decided to keep Reimold off the roster at the start of this season and have him report to Triple-A Norfolk. Because of a few injuries to other players, Reimold was recalled in May, and he's been on the roster since. He got off to a quick start, and in 56 plate appearances he's batting .261/.375/.478 with three home runs. Sure, that's not many trips to the plate, but that's the problem: Why is Reimold not playing more? He gets on base, draws walks, and hits for power. And yet he's been relegated to the bench and pigeonholed into being some kind of lefty-hitting specialist who only gets in the lineup when a southpaw is on the mound.

Here are his (albeit brief) career splits:

vs. RH: 357 PA, .260/.342/.429, 13 HR
vs. LH: 241 PA, .264/.357/.447, 8 HR

So he has slightly better numbers against lefties, but in fewer plate appearances. Overall, those are pretty good numbers against both types of pitchers, and it's not any kind of outrageous split. That's not to say that Showalter (hopefully) believes Reimold hits much better against lefties. The reason he's only playing against lefties is that it pushes Scott to the bench, because Scott doesn't hit lefties quite as well (though that's overblown as well).

I'm not arguing that Reimold is a superstar and that it's a crime against humanity for him to sit on the bench so often. But it doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to keep Reimold on the roster if he's going to sit out a week at a time. I'm not a big believer in Felix Pie, but I believe that Reimold has the talent to be an effective major league hitter. And hopefully the O's give him a chance to prove that he either is or isn't before the end of the season.

-----

Here's another point: Before the season, the O's made it known that they wanted to win games now. They weren't going to mortgage the future to do so, but the Guerrero and Derrek Lee signings, along with the Mark Reynolds trade, were made to improve the on-field product for this season in an attempt to reach a .500 record (or close to it). But here's the odd part of that: If the O's are trying to win now so much, the decision to play Guerrero less should be made anyway. His plethora of singles would be nice for, say, someone like Robert Andino, but they're not what the O's want out of their cleanup-hitting designated hitter. Putting Scott at the DH more often gets Reimold's bat in the lineup, and it also saves Scott from having to make throws in the outfield that would put extra stress on his injured right shoulder.

Just like the decision to use Kevin Gregg in situations when either Koji Uehara or Jim Johnson (or both) are available, Showalter and the O's are being rather inflexible when it comes to dealing with Guerrero and the DH position.

Randy Winn is not an 'intriguing option' for O's

I'm sure Randy Winn is a nice guy. But on what planet does he present an "intriguing option" for the Orioles?

Winn is 36 and is coming off arguably his worst season, one in which he started with the Yankees and finished with the Cardinals. He hit a combined .239/.307/.356, and according to FanGraphs, had a -0.4 WAR. Normally a solid outfielder, Winn also finished with a -6.6 UZR while splitting time between all three outfield positions.

Clearly, the linked piece above is supposed to be a nice write-up of a veteran trying to make the O's roster. And that's fine. But the O's already have Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold as potential fourth outfielder/bench options, and one of them is already facing the likelihood of not being on the team on opening day. Both players are younger and better than Winn, and there's no question that one of them (or both) should make the roster over him.

Winn may still have the ability to end up on an MLB roster. Players get injured all the time, and Winn wouldn't be the worst fill-in outfielder that's out there. But for now, there's no place on the O's roster for Winn, and it's really not that intriguing.

O's sign Guerrero to fill DH non-hole

So it's official: The Orioles have signed Vladimir Guerrero to a one-year, $8 million deal. Despite the fact that the O's already have a designated hitter (Luke Scott), they decided to bring Guerrero aboard anyway. Scott will likely shift to left field, meaning a lot less playing time for Felix Pie or Nolan Reimold -- or both.

Before I start to sound completely negative, it's worth noting that Guerrero is a fine hitter. Last season with the Rangers, he hit .300/.345/.496, and for his career he's a .320/.383/.563 hitter. As you can see, his numbers are in decline (he turns 36 next Wednesday), but he's still an above-average hitter who will get on base and hit for power.

Unfortunately, this move doesn't make a whole lot of sense, and here are a few reasons why:

1) As noted above, Scott was already penciled in as the team's DH, and there was no real reason to overpay for another DH. With Scott occupying left field, the O's have an important decision to make regarding Pie and Reimold. Both guys have shown some promise, and Guerrero's presence will not only limit both guys' playing time, but it will likely force one off of the opening day roster. I'm pretty sure that Reimold has a minor league option left, but I don't believe Pie does. Either way, neither player will be happy with his new role, and they're both starting to get older and less valuable (Pie turns 26 on Tuesday; Reimold is 27).

2) The O's are not a contending team, and this move does not push them closer to anything except maybe getting out of the AL East cellar or finishing with a .500 record. Don't get me wrong, those would be nice achievements, but they don't seem to be worth risking the chance of seeing Pie and Reimold develop into solid players. There's no guarantee of that happening, but there's less chance of that occurring now.

3) On a similar note, $8 million seems like a lot to pay for: a) a guy who can't play the field; b) an aging slugger whose body may start to break down soon; and c) a hitter who wasn't widely (or arguably even remotely) coveted. That's more of a knock on the O's than Guerrero, who probably has enough juice left in the tank for a couple more decent seasons.

-----

Those are just my immediate thoughts, so I'm sure I missed plenty of good points. Here are some other reactions, both from O's fans and non-O's fans. (Note: This should be rather interesting, mostly because I haven't had the chance to read other takes on the signing until just now. Enjoy.)

-- "But you know what it feels like to me? 1998. If you recall, that’s the year we took fliers on Joe Carter and Doug Drabek. I realize there’s one huge difference here in that Guerrero had a good year last year while Carter and Drabek were both pretty clearly done when we brought them in. Still, there are echoes. In each case we’re talking about bringing in an aging 'name' veteran on a bloated contract and hoping he has enough left to contribute. . . . Maybe Guerrero does — this is certainly a smarter move than Carter or Drabek were. Maybe it’s even a subtle stroke of genius in that he could be flipped for an upper-tier prospect after a good first half. Hell, maybe he has a fantastic year and the O’s are still in contention for the Wild Card come August. All of these things are possible. . . . I’m not against being excited by 'maybe.' I do it every year with the O’s. But if I’m going on 'maybe' I’d rather it take the form of Pie and/or Reimold." [The Loss Column]

-- "Most fans seem to be looking at the name on the back of the jersey more than Vlad's actual production of late. So they are happy. But Vlad won't help as much as everyone thinks. I've detailed that. Others have too. And I'm sure I will again. . . . Let's not even discuss the money. There is little chance he will be worth that much and given the reduced market for his services, that's an incredible overpay. It had better not affect the draft budget." [Dempsey's Army]

-- "Guerrero's got a name, obviously. But can you really imagine the good people of Charm City getting excited about the chance to see Vladimir Guerrero bat four times? The truth is that there have been very, very, very few players who baseball fans would specifically pay to see. And while there might have been a year or two when Guerrero was one of those players, sort of, he's not anymore. . . . But wait, this gets worse. Guerrero's presence actually shoves a younger, cheaper, and decent-enough player to the bench (or the minors) and weakens the defense." [Rob Neyer, SB Nation]

-- "Interestingly . . . the O’s payroll now sits at approximately $93 million, approximately $20 million more than last season. . . . You can’t say the Orioles aren’t trying to win, but unless their young pitchers take a huge leap forward this season, it’s hard to imagine them being a contender." [D.J. Short, Hardball Talk]

-- "Even if you want Vlad on the team - I don't really, since I'd much rather watch Pie and Reimold play every day - but even if you do, it is still really dumb to pay $8 M to a guy who didn't have many potential job openings. Even if it's not my money, it doesn't instill me with confidence that Andy MacPhail will be making the kinds of moves the O's need him to make to compete in the AL East (where at least New York and Boston have more money, and all of the other GMs were already smarter in my opinion)." [Camden Crazies]

-- "Will Guerrero make the Orioles better? After shattering expectations for him in Texas, Guerrero came back to reality in the second half (.270 average/11 homers/ 45 RBI). He’s no spring chicken, either (he'll turn 36 Wednesday), so assuming he’ll replicate last year's 643 plate appearances in 2011 is being way too optimistic. His production is real, and the Orioles will give Vlad some good players to get on base in front of him. But living by 'the three run homer' philosophy isn't always the best strategy, and the Orioles pitching is not ready to compete in the AL East. One must wonder if all these moves are a vain attempt to appease a fan base that is desperate for the days of Cal Ripken." [Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times]

-- "Can Guerrero do for the Orioles what he did for the Rangers last year? That's asking a lot, considering he's a year older and the O's are a lot farther away from being a contending team. But he gives the team that much more offensive credibility and gives fans a little more to look forward to as they club gets ready to open training camp just 10 days from now." [The Schmuck Stops Here]

-----

I'm sure there's more, but that's enough. You get the idea -- mostly negative reactions, understandably. It's worth noting that the problem isn't really with the player the O's targeted; Guerrero will probably hit just fine and give the O's what they were looking for. The problem is with bringing in something that wasn't really needed for too much money while also possibly giving up on other younger, cheaper options. So yeah, that's definitely a concern, particularly in the organization's overall decision-making process.

Guerrero, O's still talking

Vladimir Guerrero doesn't exactly have a ton of options left in terms of suitors, so with the Orioles apparently interested in his services, he's listening. And that's what ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting -- that Guerrero and the O's are "making progress in their talks for a 2011 contract."

The O's have already made a few moves this offseason to upgrade the team's lineup (particularly the infield), such as trading for third baseman Mark Reynolds, dealing for shortstop J.J. Hardy, and signing first baseman Derrek Lee. However, Andy MacPhail doesn't appear to be done trying to fix the team's offense and may want Guerrero to be the team's designated hitter. If that happens, Luke Scott would likely see more time in left field since the O's need to keep his bat in the lineup. And that would be bad news for both Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold, who currently seem headed for a time-share role in left field. If Guerrero ends up in Baltimore, the O's could trade one, or both, for pitching depth.

Guerrero is 35, can only DH at this point in his career, and isn't likely to keep posting solid offensive numbers. (Not that a one-year deal is that big of a risk, obviously.) Meanwhile, Reimold is 27 and Pie is 25. Are the O's against giving those two a chance to see what they can do in a split-duty role, or is the team basically convinced at this point of what type of player each guy is?

It's not like the O's will have to break the bank for Guerrero -- they can probably sign him for a few million bucks. But if they do bring him to Baltimore, that may shut the door on the possibility of Reimold or Pie sticking around much longer (unless they both end up as bench guys, which doesn't seem likely).

Why the O's don't have to overpay for a first baseman

Let's take a look at three players' career stats:

Player A: .271/.339/.488, .351 wOBA
Player B: .282/.367/.498, .371 wOBA
Player C: .268/.354/.503, .365 wOBA

Player A doesn't get on base as much as the other two and also hits for slightly less power. Player B and Player C are pretty close, with B getting on base more and C hitting for a bit more power. Again, this comparison is just based on hitting and doesn't bring in other factors like age, fielding, etc., but if you had to choose, it would likely be in this order: B, then C, then A.

Player A is Adam LaRoche, Player B is Derrek Lee, and Player C is Luke Scott. In terms of overall production (not just hitting), they're not all on equal footing. Scott hasn't played much first base in his career and has played more left field and DH. Lee and LaRoche, meanwhile, are both exclusively first basemen. Also, Scott is 32, LaRoche is 31, and Lee is 35.

Now, obviously, the reasons why the Orioles are in the running for a first baseman are: 1) the Garrett Atkins experiment worked out horribly last season; 2) they don't really have any young first base prospects (outside of maybe Nolan Reimold, though he's never played the position at the major league level) who can fill the role; and 3) they're looking for an upgrade at the position, even if it's just for a year or two. And, really, if the O's end up signing Lee or LaRoche to a one-year deal, that's fine. But if they really did extend a three-year deal to LaRoche or are even considering it, I do have a problem with that. Lee is apparently seeking a one-year deal, which seems reasonable even if that deal ends up costing $7-$8 million -- something in that range. But what puts LaRoche in the three-year range? He's definitely an improvement over who the O's have had at first base the last few seasons, but that doesn't mean the O's should overpay for a non-elite first baseman who's already in his 30s. It would be hard to classify that type of signing as anything other than a desperate move.

Last season, Lee (2.1) and LaRoche (2.0) ranked 15th and 16th, respectively, out of all first basemen in WAR. (Ty Wigginton (0.3) ranked 22nd.) Picking either one up would make the O's better, sure, but it's not like it would greatly transform the team. Is it really worth it to sign someone like LaRoche to a multi-year deal just to gain possibly a couple of wins? Maybe, maybe not, though I'd vote no.

Buck Showalter has apparently made it known that he'd like to have a proven first baseman manning that position this year. That would mean that he'd welcome Lee or LaRoche to Baltimore -- as most fans would -- with open arms. I'm for that move, too, as long as the price is right. Why should the O's overpay when the only other two teams that seemingly are in the running are the Nationals and Padres? Baltimore and Washington seem like the two likely landing spots for Lee and LaRoche, not just because they may have the biggest needs at the position, but because they can probably spend a little more than San Diego.

At the trade deadline last year, the O's made the curious decision to not trade either Wigginton or Scott. Scott is still in Baltimore, but Wigginton bolted for Colorado. With Scott still around, the O's do have someone who can fill in at the position, if necessary. In his career, Scott has only played a total of 29 games at first, so it's not like he's completely comfortable playing the position. However, his hitting would likely make up for some subpar fielding, if he's able to improve enough to get to that level in the field.

Playing Scott at first isn't an ideal fall-back plan, but it does give the O's at least an option to go with if Lee or LaRoche decide to sign elsewhere. Signing a DH like Jim Thome or Vladimir Guerrero may even be better for the team offensively, though playing Scott at first would be a defensive risk.

So, basically, if the O's don't sign Lee or LaRoche, it may hurt the team a little, but probably not a whole lot. Remember, we're talking about a 35-year-old Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche. It's not the end of the world if the O's don't meet either player's contract demands.

Arrieta outduels Sabathia in O's win

Jake Arrieta and CC Sabathia both pitched 6.1 innings last night, but Sabathia allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits while Arrieta allowed just two runs on eight hits. Arrieta also walked only one batter while striking out three.

Matt Albers relieved Arrieta in the bottom of the seventh and entered the game in a tough situation -- the Yankees had runners on first and third, one out, and Alex Rodriguez at bat, pinch-hitting for Ramiro Pena. But Albers got two ground balls -- one by Rodriguez and another by Brett Gardner -- to get out of the inning unscathed. Albers, who also pitched a scoreless eighth, lowered his ERA to 4.09. He also hasn't allowed a run since August 14 -- a span of nine appearances. And with a four-run cushion, Mark Hendrickson pitched a scoreless ninth.

So, yes, the three-headed monster of Arrieta, Albers, and Hendrickson held the Yankees to two runs in September. Not a bad performance.

On the season, Arrieta has more walks (46) than strikeouts (44), but he's getting close to changing that and has walked only one batter in his last two starts.

On offense, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Ty Wigginton each had two hits. One of Wigginton's hits was a double. Nolan Reimold hit a two-run home run in the third, giving the O's a 5-1 lead at the time. Felix Pie drew the lone walk for the O's.

The O's have now won four games in a row -- two against the Rays, and two against the Yankees -- and are 4-3 in September. They'll go for the sweep in a day game today as Brad Bergesen faces 23-year-old Ivan Nova. And according to the game preview on ESPN, the O's will try for their first road sweep of the Yankees in more than 24 years.

ROY Watch: Brian Matusz won the first game of the series on Monday, pitching six innings and allowing three runs while striking out four and walking two. The outing didn't do much to lower his ERA (4.71), but he did win his fourth start in a row -- and winning in Yankee Stadium is always a good thing.

What's wrong with Reimold?

Last year, in his rookie season, Nolan Reimold was a pretty solid hitter. In 104 games, he hit .279/.365/.466 with 15 home runs. He also walked 47 times and stole eight bases in 10 chances. He was a less-than-stellar left fielder, but let's just focus on his offense.

In the first chunk of the 2010 season, though, Reimold has certainly struggled. In 24 games, Reimold is hitting .179/.282/.299 and has just one homer. Except for walks -- 11.5 BB% now compared with a 11.4 BB% last year -- his numbers are basically down across the board.

But Reimold is working hard to fix the problem; here's what he told The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec:

"It hasn't been very fun, that's for sure. I have an idea of what I'm doing. I'm just trying to work it out. I'll be all right. It's mechanical more than anything. I'm just not hitting the ball. I'm pulling off it a little bit, and pitchers are staying away. It's not a good combo."

Reimold also didn't want to use his previous Achilles injury as an excuse: "I'm not going to blame that," he said. So putting aside some admitted mechanical problems with his swing and his Achilles issue, let's take a look at what's been ailing Reimold.

First things first: Reimold has only played in 24 games. Maybe he's just getting off to a slow start. He's certainly not the only major leaguer who is having his fair share of early season difficulties. Next, he's also been a little unlucky. Despite hitting only a slightly smaller percentage of line drives this season (13.7% to 14.4%), Reimold has a BABIP of only .220. Then again, he's not hitting as many ground balls as he did last year (43.1% to 48.2%), and he is striking out more (25.4% to 21.5%). But those aren't enormous changes and could start to even out over the next few weeks. And again, it's a good sign that he's walking at about the same rate as last year.

So what's the problem? Pitch recognition might have something to do with it. According to FanGraphs, used for all of the stats in this piece, Reimold is only swinging at 49.7% of pitches in the strike zone compared to 63.7% of them last season. He's also swinging at fewer pitches in general as well, down from 43.2% to 34.5%. So maybe Reimold is just being a little too selective at the plate. If he's going to be more patient, that means he'll have to fight off tough pitches out of the zone -- which is something he hasn't done very effectively so far. Despite making contact with 56.0% of pitches outside the zone in 2009, Reimold is currently only making contact 32.0% of those pitches. Swinging at fewer pitches in the zone and then not making contact as often with balls out of the zone isn't a very good combination.

It might take some time for Reimold to get his timing and mechanics all in order, but things should start to turn around for him soon. He's probably been taking too many pitches in the zone, but he's still been unlucky when he's actually put the ball in play. One of the few good things about Felix Pie being out is that Reimold should still receive plenty of regular at bats, meaning that he'll have lots of chances to try to regain his 2009 presence at the plate.

Another poor offensive performance, another loss

The Orioles (1-6) wasted another decent start by Jeremy Guthrie -- seven innings pitched, eight hits, three earned runs -- and dropped their fourth game in a row (all at home) after a 5-1 loss to the Rays. Matt Garza threw eight strong innings, giving up only one run, and earned his second victory over the Orioles in this young season.

Garza allowed just six hits, with the O's lone run coming on a leadoff home run by Felix Pie. The Orioles had a couple of chances to score -- in the second and seventh innings -- but again couldn't put together another hit or two to put more runs on the scoreboard.

With the O's ahead 1-0 in the second, Matt Wieters led off with an infield single, and Luke Scott followed with a single of his own to right field. Unfortunately, Garrett Atkins came up next and hit a ground ball right to the shortstop for a double play. And in a sentence that will probably be repeated numerous times this season, Julio Lugo then struck out to end the threat.

In the seventh (the Orioles are trailing 3-1 at this point), with one out and Scott on first after a walk, Atkins hit a shot into the left center field gap, but the ball was caught on an outstanding running play by Carl Crawford. So with two outs, Ty Wigginton, pinch-hitting for Lugo, hit a flare to short right field that fell in for a single. With runners on first and second with two outs, Nolan Reimold was sent to the plate to pinch-hit for Cesar Izturis -- makes sense, right? Reimold, though, never got a chance to swing the bat -- on a ball in the dirt that got away from the catcher for a moment, Wigginton took off for second. There was just one problem: Scott stayed put. Wigginton was easily caught in a rundown, ending yet another scoring opportunity. Who does Wigginton think he is? Melvin Mora?

Pie, as stated before, led the O's offense attack with his solo home run. He also singled and walked. Jones, Wieters, Scott, and Wigginton each had a hit, and Scott and Wieters both drew walks. Nick Markakis went 0-3 and is now hitting .143, but he did walk again. And Miguel Tejada went 0-4 and saw just nine pitches in those at bats -- not exactly the kind of performance the O's are looking for from their cleanup hitter.

The Orioles have now scored just 20 runs in seven games. Get well soon, Brian Roberts.

By the way, if the team's recent play isn't bad enough, the 9,129 fans in attendance at Camden Yards tonight broke the "record" for the smallest crowd in the stadium's 19 seasons. Awesome.

O's get swept by Toronto, drop to 1-5 on the season

(Quick note: I went to Orioles games on Friday and Saturday, and both times during the O's ninth-inning comeback attempts, several fans were more interested in trying to start the wave than cheering on the team. Seriously, who tries to do the wave in the ninth inning?)

Well, that was unexpected. After a tough 7-6 loss in their home opener, the Orioles continued to struggle and their bats remained quiet on Saturday and Sunday as the Blue Jays completed a three-game sweep of the O's. On Saturday, the Blue Jays and starter Dana Eveland shut the O's out 3-0, and on Sunday, despite trailing most of the game 2-1, the Blue Jays scored four runs in the eighth and ninth innings in a 5-2 comeback victory.

Although Mike Gonzalez was the scapegoat for the first few games of the season (not that he's off the hook yet, by any means), the real culprit for the O's disappointing start is probably the team's offense, or lack thereof. Granted, that doesn't excuse Gonzalez's poor performance, and of course, barely a week has past in the MLB season, but the Orioles have not looked particularly good at the plate.

In six games, the O's are tied for the third-fewest runs scored with only 19. The O's also have the worst batting average with runners in scoring position (.167) and have scored just 14 runs in 54 at bats in those situations. I doubt that the offense will continue to struggle so much, but it doesn't help that Brian Roberts is possibly headed to the disabled list with an abdominal strain.

On the bright side, Matt Wieters is hitting .409/.458/.545. Eight of his nine hits have been singles (the other a homer), but he's been the best O's hitter so far. Garrett Atkins (.350/.350/.500) has had a decent start to the season, though he hasn't yet drawn a walk. Nick Markakis is hitting just .167 at the moment, but he has the team's second-highest on-base percentage (.444) mainly because he's been patient at the plate and has drawn a team-high nine walks (tied with Adam Dunn for the most in the majors).

Miguel Tejada (.240/.296/.400), Nolan Reimold (.200/.294/.467), Adam Jones (.231/.259/.462), and Luke Scott (.167/.250/.389) have all struggled and are not getting on base enough. Those four have each hit a home run, but they've drawn only four combined walks. With Roberts out, those guys need to step up and play better.

I'd ramble a little more and complain about the team's 1-5 record, but again, they've only played six games and hopefully will turn things around. If the O's continue to receive decent starting pitcher performances, they should start to win more games as the offense scores more runs and takes advantage of scoring opportunities.

Next game: An early season rematch tonight at 7:05 against the Rays as Jeremy Guthrie faces Matt Garza again. Last time, Garza pitched a phenomenal game, throwing eight strong innings and allowing only one earned run.

O's questions, links, and thoughts as Opening Day approaches

The Orioles begin the season on the road against Tampa Bay on April 6, and I can't wait. There's no guarantee that this Orioles season will be any different from previous disappointing seasons, but there is at least a bit of hope. Then again, it would be hard for the Orioles to do any worse than the Redskins or Wizards, so that's something to look forward to.

First things first: Here's the 25-man roster that the Orioles will start the season with, via Peter Schmuck:

Starting pitchers: Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez
Relievers: Mike Gonzalez, Jim Johnson, Mark Hendrickson, Matt Albers, Cla Meredith, Will Ohman, Jason Berken, Koji Uehara (DL)
Catchers: Matt Wieters, Craig Tatum
Infielders: Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, Garrett Atkins, Cesar Izturis, Ty Wigginton, Robert Andino
Outfielders: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Luke Scott, Felix Pie

Not too shabby. You'll probably notice a few things: Craig Tatum made the team over Chad Moeller; David Hernandez beat out Chris Tillman for the fifth spot in the starting rotation; and Jason Berken apparently will be the long man in the bullpen while Uehara is on the disabled list. At least that's what caught my eye at first.

The real surprise (to me) is that Tatum made the team over Moeller. It's not that Moeller is any kind of spectacular back-up catching option, just that most O's fans were led to believe that Moeller would make the team and sort of groom Wieters and give him veteran advice throughout the season. (Peter Schmuck thought the same thing.) In parts of 10 seasons, here are Moeller's numbers: .226/.288/.351, 29 HR. Tatum (27 years old), on the other hand, has only played in 26 career games -- all of them coming in 2009 with the Reds. In those games, he hit .162/.250/.221 with 1 HR. For what it's worth, Tatum, in six minor league seasons, hit a combined .252/.318/.384 with 34 HR, so he's obviously not on the Orioles for his offense. Here is Dave Trembley explaining the decision to keep Tatum over Moeller:

Craig Tatum is regarded as the better defensive player, which is why he beat out Chad Moeller.

"I think that's the only consideration," Trembley said. "You come down to Tatum and his ability to catch and throw. And I think it's pretty obvious."

Trembley doesn't believe that Moeller is needed to mentor Matt Wieters or the young pitchers.

"This is Wieters' team," Trembley said. "This is Wieters' pitching staff. We're expecting a lot from Matt Wieters. Chad Moeller is not there for Wieters any more. We feel confident that Wieters now, boom, it's yours."

Pretty interesting stuff, and it tells you how much that Trembley and the O's front office think of Wieters to make a decision like that. There's obviously no way to know how much Moeller's mentoring and veteran leadership helped Wieters, but that doesn't mean Moeller didn't bring anything to the table. But again, it's nice to see that the Orioles aren't just keeping veterans around just for the sake of doing it. However, since Tatum isn't much of a hitter, he'll need to control the pitching staff and running game while Wieters isn't behind the plate.

Here's what Trembley had to say about keeping Hernandez over Tillman (from the same Roch link):

"What we're doing is the best thing for the team and for his development," Trembley said. "He was put in a situation last year where he came up to the big leagues because of need. We had an awful lot of injuries and we had an awful lot of movement. He is going to be a fantastic major league pitcher for a long time, but there are some things that he needs to get better at, and we'd rather see him do that at Triple-A than in the big leagues."

It's hard to argue with that, and it's nice that the Orioles don't have to simply rush Tillman's development along just because he was on the team last year for a few months. Hernandez showed some improvement and earned the chance to start the team as the No. 5 starter; it doesn't mean that he'll be in that role for the whole season. And it's also a positive that the Orioles have a few options to consider when it comes to competent starting pitchers -- and that's something that should be consistent in the years to come. Also, here's what Rob Neyer thinks (hint: it's a good thing):

[I]t's struck me this spring that, for all the talk about nobody having enough pitching, a lot of teams have a No. 6 starter with real promise. The Yankees, Red Sox, Reds, Orioles, Padres, Rangers, Twins ... there are a lot of good young pitchers out there who aren't quite good enough yet to crack their team's rotation.

As for Berken winning the long-man role by default, well, that's fine. Because there have only been maybe two or three televised games, I haven't had the chance to see him pitch. According to Dan Connolly, in six appearances this spring, Berken has an ERA of 2.84. Last year he was downright terrible -- 6-12, 6.54 ERA, 1.43 HR/9, 1.50 K/BB -- but maybe he'll do a little better in the mop-up role. As for Uehara, will he ever be healthy enough to contribute to this team again? The O's could really use him in the bullpen.

Now, on to another surprising move: Apparently Miguel Tejada will begin the season as the O's cleanup hitter. Dan Connolly:

If Roberts has rebounded from a herniated disk, he'll bat leadoff, with Adam Jones likely second, Nick Markakis third and Miguel Tejada at cleanup. Trembley has juggled several lineups this spring, including using various options in the fourth spot. Tejada has been there the most, and Trembley acknowledged Sunday that he thinks the veteran is his best current option at cleanup.

"He is the most experienced guy," Trembley said about Tejada. "That doesn't mean he will be there all the time, but he is the most experienced guy."

Trembley said he prefers to have a left-hander or switch-hitter behind Tejada, which means switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters or lefty designated hitter Luke Scott likely would bat fifth. Trembley has used Wieters at fifth and fourth at different times this spring.

Roberts appears to be healthy, so he should have no problem starting the season at second base and in the leadoff spot. And that's great; losing Roberts for any significant chunk of the season would be rather detrimental to the O's offense. And although the Orioles don't really have a prototypical cleanup hitter at the moment, Tejada may not be the best option for that spot. Since Wieters isn't quite ready yet and Nolan Reimold won't be starting the season at 100 percent, Luke Scott seems like the better option to hit fourth. Now, I'll preface this by saying that it's not really a big deal, but let's at least see which one-through-four combination looks better:

Roberts, Jones, Markakis, Tejada; or
Roberts, Markakis, Jones, Scott.

Roberts definitely stays in the leadoff spot, and Nick Markakis and Adam Jones simply flip-flop spots. Now let's compare Tejada's and Scott's career numbers:

Tejada: .289/.341/.469, 285 HR, 6.3 BB%
Scott: .264/.350/.495, 76 HR, 11.1 BB%

Tejada is still a good hitter, and he even hit 46 doubles while batting .313 during a much-improved 2009 season. But Scott hit 11 more home runs last season (25 to 14), drew 36 more walks (55 to 19), and simply seems like the better option to hit fourth right now. Starting the season with Tejada hitting cleanup is one thing, but keeping him there for an extended period of time doesn't seem like a good idea. Unless Tejada starts out the season on fire, hopefully Trembley moves him down the lineup a few places.

Two other notes: Millwood will get the Opening Day start, which was expected, and Felix Pie will start in the left field as well. The start for Pie is a little surprising, only because of how well Reimold played last season. But Trembley's reasoning makes a lot of sense:

"This is not a slight on (Nolan) Reimold, but this is the right thing for Reimold. He's not 100 percent. You think I'm going to go ask him to bust his butt on turf?" Trembley said.

"That kid is as tough as nails. We all saw him play for three months last year, half a player. Never complained, never did nothing."

Even if you're the biggest Reimold fan, it would be hard to disagree with Trembley. The goal is to be healthy for the whole season, so what's the rush in hurrying Reimold along while he's healing? Pie is also the better outfielder and has been steadily improving at the plate.

The roster is slightly different from what I thought it would look like on Opening Day, but it's not too difficult to see why the O's are making certain decisions. I'm excited to see what they can do this season.

Should Pie start in LF next season?

If you haven't been watching the O's for a while, then you probably haven't noticed how well Felix Pie has been playing lately. In 74 at bats since the all-star break -- yes, a small sample size, but still -- Pie is hitting .324/.378/.568 with four home runs and 13 runs batted in.

And although he'll probably never be an on-base machine because he doesn't walk very much, his walk percentage numbers are still up (8.6 percent), and he's cut down on his strikeouts (23.8 percent).

Let's make one thing clear though: I'm definitely not counting out Nolan Reimold or what he has accomplished this season. However, Reimold may fit in as the designated hitter next season, especially depending on how well Luke Scott can impress the coaching staff at first base. If Scott can play average or above average defense at first, then having Pie in left field (5.7 UZR, 16.6 UZR/150) would be a defensive upgrade over Reimold (-7.5 UZR, -11.3 UZR/150). Again, those numbers are just from this season, but I'd trust them from what I've seen. Pie seems to cover more ground and chase down more flyballs, even if he isn't exactly the most graceful outfielder.

It's also interesting to note that even though Reimold is performing well at the plate in his rookie season -- out of all MLB rookies with 300 plate appearance or more, Reimold is second in home runs (12), t-fourth in average (.274), second in OPS (.823), and third in walks (42) -- Felix Pie, according to FanGraphs, has been worth $4.6 million while Reimold has been worth $4.4 million -- and that's with about 100 fewer plate appearances. Playing solid defense really does help.

Even if Pie continues his strong performance at the plate for the rest of the season, though, it's unlikely that he'd be the unquestioned starter in left field, probably because he doesn't get the chance to hit left-handed pitching very often. Pie is hitting .286/.354/.460 in 161 at bats against righties this season, but in just 20 at bats against lefties, he's hitting .150/.143/.300. It's hard to gauge anything from only 20 at bats, but there's obviously a reason why he doesn't play more when a lefty is on the mound.

Again, depending on Scott's defense, the O's lineup against right-handed pitching in 2010 could very well include Scott, Reimold, and Pie -- and it may make the O's a little bit better.

Weekly Rundown: J.R. Smith, Bugel, Arenas

Weekly Rundown is a combination of links and brief comments on stories and topics that I couldn't get to during the week. If there's something important that I missed, don't hesitate to send an email or leave a comment.

• Tim Keown on the annual MLB saga involving beanballs and angry hitters:
  

  
  Through it all, there is no end to the hand wringing from MLB headquarters, where everyone furrows their brows and interviews the umpires and issues the fines. They're very serious about this business.
  
  That's their first -- and biggest -- mistake.
  
  If they want to clean up this part of the game, there's a really easy answer: Stop trying so hard.
  
  If you don't want Fielder to rush the Dodgers' clubhouse, let him rush the mound. Get out of the way, and get the umpires out of the way. And for the sake of all that's right with the world, get the suits out of the way.
  
  Think of it as going organic, letting nature take its course.
  
  Let them fight. Let them do what they want to do. Let the game police itself the way it did before every game was televised and every highlight dissected.
  

  
  I don't know if I agree with him or not, but Kevin Youkilis certainly does. [ESPN]


• Adrian Wojnarowski provides an interesting look at J.R. Smith of the Nuggets. [Yahoo! Sports]


• The New Mexico State football program needs some help:
  

  
  In a twist on Little League moms lining up with after-game treats, New Mexico State's budget-conscious football staff distributed an e-mail this week asking fans to donate after-practice or late-night snacks for hungry players.
  
  It's a consequence of the national economy, of course.
  
  "It's a decision we had to make with regard to our meals," first-year coach DeWayne Walker said Thursday. "There are a lot of other areas where we have to make tough choices with how we're going to spend our money."
  

  
  I hope they like oatmeal cookies, orange slices, and Capri Suns. [ESPN]


• Joe Posnanski counts down the worst contracts in baseball and concludes that "we should just start referring to bad baseball contracts as 'Ricciardis.'" [Joe Posnanski]


• Joe Bugel still loves football -- and violence. [D.C. Sports Bog]


• According to several reports, Gilbert Arenas is back on the court and is looking solid. [Truth About It]


• After homering today, Nick Markakis has reached base in 36 consecutive games. [School of Roch]


• Marc Hulet thinks that Brad Bergesen, Matt Wieters, and Nolan Reimold all have at least a shot of winning the AL Rookie of the Year award. [FanGraphs]


• The Redskins have announced changes to their Twitter policy:
  

  
  The Redskins announced Sunday that media organizations covering the team can no longer use Twitter to report updates from the team's preseason practices.
  
  "We, like other teams, are concerned about the type of information that's being reported during practice," said team spokesman Zack Bolno. He said the Redskins don't want sensitive information about injuries and strategy being shared during practice.
  
  Since training camp began more than two weeks ago, reporters from several outlets have used Twitter to give fans practice reports in near real-time, reporting roster updates, injury news, commenting on plays and drills and even sharing photos.
  
  The team's official web site and 980 AM, which is owned by Redskins owner Dan Snyder, are not subject to the ban, Bolno said.
  

  
  None of this news is shocking, especially the part about ESPN 980's exemption from the ban. [Redskins Insider]

Appreciating Nolan Reimold

As far as promising American League rookies go, the Orioles have a few solid ones: Matt Wieters, Brad Bergesen, and Nolan Reimold. Koji Uehara, technically a rookie, posted pretty good numbers before getting hurt in late June. David Hernandez has also been impressive lately, shutting down the Yankees and Red Sox in consecutive starts. Plus, Chris Tillman is set to make his Major League debut on Wednesday against the Royals.

I've written a little about Bergesen and Wieters, but I don't think I've given Reimold his due.

In 59 games, Reimold is hitting .281/.362/.467 with nine home runs, 27 RBI, and a 0.62 BB/K ratio (24/39). According to FanGraphs, he's been worth $3.2 million so far, though his defense in left field -- -4.9 UZR, -12.6 UZR/150 -- has been subpar. He also has five steals and has yet to be caught.

Compared to other AL rookies, Reimold is more than holding his own. He ranks third in hits, fifth in doubles, first in home runs, first in RBI, t-fifth in steals, first in walks, second in average, second in OBP, and first in slugging. Now those are strong numbers.

Reimold, who turns just 26 in October, certainly seems like he has a very bright future ahead of him in Baltimore -- not to mention that he has a decent chance of winning Rookie of the Year honors in the AL.

Orioles boast impressive outfield

At 36-47 (and 3-7 in their last 10 games), the Orioles haven't been playing very good baseball lately. That certainly includes games away from Camden Yards this season: the O's are 12-27 on the road.

Nevertheless, even with the O's in a funk right now, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick focuses on three reasons that O's fans should be thankful: Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold (four if you include Luke Scott). Crasnick also mentions Matt Wieters and a trio of young pitchers in the O's farm system, but he's particularly impressed with the talent in the outfield, which he calls "baseball's most dynamic young outfield":

It's enough to make the old-timers in town reflect wistfully on the Frank Robinson-Don Buford-Paul Blair days at Memorial Stadium.

Jones, 23, and Markakis and Nolan Reimold, both 25, give Baltimore a threesome worth envying. They're athletic, affordable and loaded with promise and tools. Factor in the contribution of DH and occasional left fielder Luke Scott, who has 16 homers and a .569 slugging percentage, and no one cares that erstwhile phenom Felix Pie is as big a washout in Baltimore as he was in Chicago.

"We're still under .500, but this is a different scenario than '04, '05 and '06," said hitting coach Terry Crowley. "Now we have legitimate young guys who are going to get better because they can play the game. It might not come to the surface every day because of their youth and inexperience. But when the smoke clears, these guys can play the game."

Regardless of the O's record, that's a pretty nice -- and young -- collection of talent in the outfield. With 83 games in the books, here are the splits for the three:

Nick Markakis: .293/.349/.447, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 29 BB
Adam Jones: .305/.361/.497, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 22 BB
Nolan Reimold: .265/.341/.471, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 18 BB

Markakis's numbers are down a bit right now, possibly because he's not walking as much as last season (99 walks). Then again, he usually heats up in the second half of the season, so his numbers could shoot up if he goes on a tear in the next few weeks. For his career, Markakis has a July OPS of .904 and an August OPS of 1.027.

Jones has been outstanding, which is obviously why he's the O's all-star representative. He's been reaching base more, walking more, and when he hits the ball, it's going farther -- he's already hit three more homers than last year.

And Reimold has been a pleasant surprise; now that he's healthy, the rookie is showing the Orioles exactly what he can contribute. He may not be a .300 hitter, but he has an outstanding eye at the plate and possesses lots of power.

With the success of this trio, Luke Scott (.296/.380/.569, 16 HR, 43 RBI, 28 BB) appears to be expendable if the O's decide to pursue a trade or two. Scott, 31, definitely gives the O's a solid DH and fourth outfielder, but it's not likely that he'll be able to hit this well for a full season. But, hey, if he does, that'll be an excellent season.