Jake Arrieta will miss his next start because of discomfort in his right elbow, and he may need surgery to repair the problem, which would end his season. The news isn't too alarming -- the status of Arrieta's elbow has been speculated about a few times in the last several weeks -- but it does present another blow to an Orioles rotation that's in disarray.
If Arrieta is lost for the season, here's the rotation the O's could be forced to use:
Jeremy Guthrie
Alfredo Simon
Tommy Hunter
Zach Britton
Brad Bergesen
That is, uh, not good. Guthrie and Simon are no-brainers. Hunter may end up pitching out of the bullpen a few times first, but he'll be in the rotation soon enough.
After those three, though, things get convoluted. Britton's still on the roster, meaning he'll likely make his next start. His presence would look better if not for how bad he's pitched lately: He's failed to make it out of the first inning in his last two starts for the O's. After Britton, the next-best option may be Bergesen, who probably should be in the bullpen. He'll put together a solid outing every few starts, but he's just not very good, especially when he's walking opposing batters. But I'll give Bergesen a break, for now, because he just had a kid.
If Britton and/or Bergesen falter, which is probable considering how awful the O's are, these guys could also see starts:
Jo-Jo Reyes. The O's (who also released Justin Duchscherer) claimed Reyes earlier today off of waivers from the Blue Jays. He hasn't pitched well this season, but he has made 20 starts, meaning the O's may use him to soak up some innings.
Chris Jakubauskas. If the O's had any kind of pitching depth, he wouldn't be on the roster. The same could be said of Reyes. But he's still in the bullpen, which means that if the guys in front of him keep pitching poorly or get hurt, he could start a game or two. But hopefully that doesn't happen.
Jim Johnson. He may be more of an option to join the O's rotation next season, because 1) there's not a whole lot of time to stretch him out before the season is over, and 2) he's already helping out the O's bullpen, which is also terrible. But it's possible.
Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz. I'm going to lump these two together since they're in Triple-A Norfolk, but either guy could make a few more starts before the season ends. Tillman was just demoted after pitching poorly against the Yankees in New York. He got off to a promising start and worked two scoreless innings to begin the game. But he lasted just 4.1 innings, giving up five earned runs on eight hits. He walked just one while striking out six, but he also demonstrated some of the bad habits that have plagued him throughout his young career, particularly pitching from behind and throwing straight fastballs right down the middle of the plate. As for Matusz, he's still working hard to regain his pitching form and velocity, but there hasn't been any sign from the O's that they're ready to bring Matusz back just yet.
Remember the days when the O's were looking forward to a rotation including Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, and Tillman? That seems like such a long time ago.
Showing posts with label Jake Arrieta. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jake Arrieta. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Friday, July 8, 2011
The O's still aren't developing younger players
The Orioles lost again last night, but that's not surprising considering how they've been playing lately. The loss included bad starting pitching, terrible relief pitching, and mediocre hitting -- all things that the O's excel at right now. (For what it's worth, Matt Wieters did steal a base [the first of his career], which is something that should never happen.)
It's hard to watch the O's at the moment for obvious reasons; it's never fun to tune in to watch your team lose night in and night out. But something that's even more troubling is an issue that has been plaguing the O's for more than a decade: They still aren't developing their young talent.
Let's take a look at O's players 27 years old and younger and how they're doing. Sure, 27 seems like an arbitrary number and isn't necessarily "young," but it's my list. Here they are, with hitters listed first, then pitchers.
Adam Jones: .283/.326/.457. Jones, who turns 26 on August 1, was having a very good season a few weeks ago before he started to slump a bit and his numbers took a tumble. Still, his numbers are still up slightly and he's on pace to have his best season in Baltimore. It's somewhat concerning that FanGraphs doesn't rate his defense very highly, and the same is true this season. I've wondered why Jones seems to make several fantastic, flashy plays but tends to have a few defensive lapses here and there and not always make the routine plays. I still think he's a pretty good center fielder, but he just may not be an elite one. The same can be said of his skills at the plate; he's not necessarily going to be an elite hitter, but he can be a productive hitter who isn't batting at the top of the lineup. Jones hasn't developed (yet) into a star, per se, but he's still one of the best young players the O's have.
Matt Wieters: .269/.319/.413. The 25-year-old Wieters, the lone O's All-Star this season, still seems to make many people angry because he's not hitting like Joe Mauer. Because of his pre-O's hype, many expected him to completely alter the entire franchise with his amazing abilities. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened, but he's still an intriguing piece. Thanks to his .288/.340/.412 batting line in 385 plate appearances in his rookie year (2009), Wieters probably set the bar a little too high, too early. He hasn't been able to hit for that average or get on base that often since then, but he is hitting for as much power this season and has shown signs that he may be able to hit for even more. It is surprising that with his eye at the plate he doesn't walk more (6.7 BB% this season) -- though he did walk three times last night. While he still has work to do at the plate, Wieters has developed into one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball. He's caught 24 of 54 runners (44.4 percent stolen base percentage), far and away the best among all qualified MLB catchers. (The next closest is Alex Avila, at 36.9 percent.) FanGraphs rates his defense the highest among all catchers as well, which is also a top reason why he's leading the O's with a WAR of 2.3.
Nick Markakis: .293/.339/.385. Markakis, 27, has been on fire over the last few weeks and has turned his season around. He's still not walking a ton or hitting for a whole lot of power, but he's been much better lately. Check out my recent post on Markakis for more analysis.
Nolan Reimold: .271/.362/.492. Reimold turns 28 in October, and the O's still have no idea if he's an everyday player or not. Buck Showalter obviously doesn't think too highly of him or else he wouldn't be mostly benching Reimold when a lefty isn't on the mound or pinch-hitting Felix Pie for him. I've written about Reimold plenty lately, so I don't have much more to say. But I will add this: I don't have much faith in the O's playing well in the second half of the season, but I do hope they give Reimold, and maybe some other younger players in Triple-A, some playing time that's being wasted on guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee.
Mark Reynolds: .230/.350/.504. Like Markakis, Reynolds, who turns 28 in August, has turned it on lately and has been hitting the cover off the ball. Unlike Markakis, many of those hits have been home runs. I'm not sure if he's quite this good or not, but he's hitting for a lot of power and is getting on base. He also walks much more than anyone on the team, another valuable skill. Under Reynolds's current contract, he's due to make $7.5 million next season and has a club option for $11 million (with a $0.5 million buyout). Compared with someone like J.J. Hardy, who will likely be looking to cash in as a free agent, Reynolds is still under team control for at least one more season. There's value in that, especially if the O's want to deal him before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Reynolds has been an absolutely terrible defender at third base this year, and he'll probably need to be moved to either 1B or DH. If the O's had a better option at third, it's possible that Reynolds would have already been moved across the infield to play first. But they don't, and that may play a part in the O's holding onto Reynolds instead of dealing him.
Felix Pie: .231/.244/.282. Pie, 26, probably isn't anything better than a fourth outfielder (if that). Sure, he doesn't receive consistent playing time, but he's never really showed the ability to hit or get on base. He has some value as a defensive replacement and a runner, but that's about it. Sorry, Felix.
Zach Britton: 3.47 ERA, 3.82 xFIP. At 23, Britton has taken over the role as the most promising pitcher on the O's roster. Britton has already thrown over 100 innings, so it's probable that the O's will limit the rookie's workload in the second half of the season. With the way the other young starters have pitched, Britton and Jeremy Guthrie are basically carrying the load right now. Britton (1.7) is second in WAR among all rookie pitchers behind Michael Pineda of the Mariners (2.5). Not bad at all.
Brian Matusz: 8.77 ERA, 5.06 xFIP. Matusz (24) is supposed to be in the O's rotation right now, providing another reliable starting option. Instead, he's back in Triple-A Norfolk after a frustrating, awful return from the disabled list. Much has been written about Matusz's reduced velocity, and it's possible that he's still hurt. But if he never recovers that velocity, he'll have to learn to pitch a new way. It won't be easy, but Matusz still has the secondary stuff to be an effective starter even without that low-90s fastball.
Jake Arrieta: 4.90 ERA, 4.33 xFIP. Like Matusz, the 25-year-old Arrieta has disappointed (though not as much). The frustrating thing about Arrieta is that he has the stuff to be effective, but he can't seem to find the strike zone consistently. He's walking 4.44 batters per nine, which is way too many. He walked four again last night in an ineffective outing against the Red Sox. And there's also a concern that Arrieta may have some kind of elbow injury. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.
Chris Tillman: 4.69 ERA, 4.86 xFIP. There's not a whole lot to say about Tillman (23) right now. Tillman received 10 starts at the beginning of the season, and he pitched OK at times. His big issue, though, was his inability to stock around past the fifth inning, because he tends to throw lots of pitches each inning. When he was demoted, instead of returning to Norfolk and dominating Triple-A hitters in an effort to get back to Baltimore, he's still struggling, walking too many batters and not striking out enough either. I'll be surprised if he doesn't return to the O's at some point later in the season, but he has plenty left to prove. It's also worth mentioning that he's about four months younger than Britton.
Brason Berkensen: 5.90 ERA, 4.06 xFIP; 5.92 ERA, 4.39 xFIP. Jason Berken (27) and Brad Bergesen (turns 26 in September) aren't quite the same -- Bergesen is younger and probably a little better -- but I'm lumping them together because they're both pitching out of the bullpen and haven't been very good. Both have pitched well at times this year, but they're essentially the mop-up crew now (you could add Alfredo Simon to that group, too). Whenever the O's are down by more than a few runs, one of them is usually the guy the O's turn to to get through the next few innings. Sure, there's value in that if it's done properly, but I have a hard time believing that either guy will ever be effective over an entire season (especially in the AL East).
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There's also a few guys in Norfolk -- Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell, Ryan Adams, Troy Patton, Matt Angle -- who have some promise, but that's not much to choose from. The goal all along was for the guys above to take the next step (or several steps) forward, but only a few have really done that.
It's hard to watch the O's at the moment for obvious reasons; it's never fun to tune in to watch your team lose night in and night out. But something that's even more troubling is an issue that has been plaguing the O's for more than a decade: They still aren't developing their young talent.
Let's take a look at O's players 27 years old and younger and how they're doing. Sure, 27 seems like an arbitrary number and isn't necessarily "young," but it's my list. Here they are, with hitters listed first, then pitchers.
Adam Jones: .283/.326/.457. Jones, who turns 26 on August 1, was having a very good season a few weeks ago before he started to slump a bit and his numbers took a tumble. Still, his numbers are still up slightly and he's on pace to have his best season in Baltimore. It's somewhat concerning that FanGraphs doesn't rate his defense very highly, and the same is true this season. I've wondered why Jones seems to make several fantastic, flashy plays but tends to have a few defensive lapses here and there and not always make the routine plays. I still think he's a pretty good center fielder, but he just may not be an elite one. The same can be said of his skills at the plate; he's not necessarily going to be an elite hitter, but he can be a productive hitter who isn't batting at the top of the lineup. Jones hasn't developed (yet) into a star, per se, but he's still one of the best young players the O's have.
Matt Wieters: .269/.319/.413. The 25-year-old Wieters, the lone O's All-Star this season, still seems to make many people angry because he's not hitting like Joe Mauer. Because of his pre-O's hype, many expected him to completely alter the entire franchise with his amazing abilities. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened, but he's still an intriguing piece. Thanks to his .288/.340/.412 batting line in 385 plate appearances in his rookie year (2009), Wieters probably set the bar a little too high, too early. He hasn't been able to hit for that average or get on base that often since then, but he is hitting for as much power this season and has shown signs that he may be able to hit for even more. It is surprising that with his eye at the plate he doesn't walk more (6.7 BB% this season) -- though he did walk three times last night. While he still has work to do at the plate, Wieters has developed into one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball. He's caught 24 of 54 runners (44.4 percent stolen base percentage), far and away the best among all qualified MLB catchers. (The next closest is Alex Avila, at 36.9 percent.) FanGraphs rates his defense the highest among all catchers as well, which is also a top reason why he's leading the O's with a WAR of 2.3.
Nick Markakis: .293/.339/.385. Markakis, 27, has been on fire over the last few weeks and has turned his season around. He's still not walking a ton or hitting for a whole lot of power, but he's been much better lately. Check out my recent post on Markakis for more analysis.
Nolan Reimold: .271/.362/.492. Reimold turns 28 in October, and the O's still have no idea if he's an everyday player or not. Buck Showalter obviously doesn't think too highly of him or else he wouldn't be mostly benching Reimold when a lefty isn't on the mound or pinch-hitting Felix Pie for him. I've written about Reimold plenty lately, so I don't have much more to say. But I will add this: I don't have much faith in the O's playing well in the second half of the season, but I do hope they give Reimold, and maybe some other younger players in Triple-A, some playing time that's being wasted on guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee.
Mark Reynolds: .230/.350/.504. Like Markakis, Reynolds, who turns 28 in August, has turned it on lately and has been hitting the cover off the ball. Unlike Markakis, many of those hits have been home runs. I'm not sure if he's quite this good or not, but he's hitting for a lot of power and is getting on base. He also walks much more than anyone on the team, another valuable skill. Under Reynolds's current contract, he's due to make $7.5 million next season and has a club option for $11 million (with a $0.5 million buyout). Compared with someone like J.J. Hardy, who will likely be looking to cash in as a free agent, Reynolds is still under team control for at least one more season. There's value in that, especially if the O's want to deal him before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Reynolds has been an absolutely terrible defender at third base this year, and he'll probably need to be moved to either 1B or DH. If the O's had a better option at third, it's possible that Reynolds would have already been moved across the infield to play first. But they don't, and that may play a part in the O's holding onto Reynolds instead of dealing him.
Felix Pie: .231/.244/.282. Pie, 26, probably isn't anything better than a fourth outfielder (if that). Sure, he doesn't receive consistent playing time, but he's never really showed the ability to hit or get on base. He has some value as a defensive replacement and a runner, but that's about it. Sorry, Felix.
Zach Britton: 3.47 ERA, 3.82 xFIP. At 23, Britton has taken over the role as the most promising pitcher on the O's roster. Britton has already thrown over 100 innings, so it's probable that the O's will limit the rookie's workload in the second half of the season. With the way the other young starters have pitched, Britton and Jeremy Guthrie are basically carrying the load right now. Britton (1.7) is second in WAR among all rookie pitchers behind Michael Pineda of the Mariners (2.5). Not bad at all.
Brian Matusz: 8.77 ERA, 5.06 xFIP. Matusz (24) is supposed to be in the O's rotation right now, providing another reliable starting option. Instead, he's back in Triple-A Norfolk after a frustrating, awful return from the disabled list. Much has been written about Matusz's reduced velocity, and it's possible that he's still hurt. But if he never recovers that velocity, he'll have to learn to pitch a new way. It won't be easy, but Matusz still has the secondary stuff to be an effective starter even without that low-90s fastball.
Jake Arrieta: 4.90 ERA, 4.33 xFIP. Like Matusz, the 25-year-old Arrieta has disappointed (though not as much). The frustrating thing about Arrieta is that he has the stuff to be effective, but he can't seem to find the strike zone consistently. He's walking 4.44 batters per nine, which is way too many. He walked four again last night in an ineffective outing against the Red Sox. And there's also a concern that Arrieta may have some kind of elbow injury. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.
Chris Tillman: 4.69 ERA, 4.86 xFIP. There's not a whole lot to say about Tillman (23) right now. Tillman received 10 starts at the beginning of the season, and he pitched OK at times. His big issue, though, was his inability to stock around past the fifth inning, because he tends to throw lots of pitches each inning. When he was demoted, instead of returning to Norfolk and dominating Triple-A hitters in an effort to get back to Baltimore, he's still struggling, walking too many batters and not striking out enough either. I'll be surprised if he doesn't return to the O's at some point later in the season, but he has plenty left to prove. It's also worth mentioning that he's about four months younger than Britton.
Brason Berkensen: 5.90 ERA, 4.06 xFIP; 5.92 ERA, 4.39 xFIP. Jason Berken (27) and Brad Bergesen (turns 26 in September) aren't quite the same -- Bergesen is younger and probably a little better -- but I'm lumping them together because they're both pitching out of the bullpen and haven't been very good. Both have pitched well at times this year, but they're essentially the mop-up crew now (you could add Alfredo Simon to that group, too). Whenever the O's are down by more than a few runs, one of them is usually the guy the O's turn to to get through the next few innings. Sure, there's value in that if it's done properly, but I have a hard time believing that either guy will ever be effective over an entire season (especially in the AL East).
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There's also a few guys in Norfolk -- Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell, Ryan Adams, Troy Patton, Matt Angle -- who have some promise, but that's not much to choose from. The goal all along was for the guys above to take the next step (or several steps) forward, but only a few have really done that.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
O's win again
Jake Arrieta pitched six scoreless innings, and the O's offense finally broke through for a bunch of runs in an 11-3 win over the Blue Jays. Leading 3-0, the O's tacked on six runs in the seventh and two more in the eighth to put the game away for good. Overall, the O's pounded out 16 hits, including three doubles and two homers, and five walks. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones had the home runs, and Robert Andino, Markakis, Ty Wigginton, Felix Pie, Matt Wieters, and Jones all had multi-hit games. Also, every Orioles starter recorded a hit.
Arrieta was more than solid enough to earn the win, allowing just four hits. He also walked only one batter while striking out five. He hasn't walked more than one batter in a start since August 26, which spans only three starts, but that's still some progress considering he has 52 strikeouts and 48 walks on the season.
The O's are now 8-5 in September and 25-15 overall under Buck Showalter. They're also 8-2 in their last 10 games and could have won all 10 if not for the bullpen blowing two leads late in games. And for whatever the reason, the O's have won a lot more and been much more enjoyable to watch under Showalter. Hopefully that doesn't end and provides a nice lead-in for next season.
A few other notes:
- Since the All-Star break, Wieters is hitting .286/.357/.474 with five home runs. He's also walked 17 times and struck out only 21 times.
- Also, since the All-Star break, Jones is hitting .301/.376/.446 with four home runs. In those 45 games, he's also three walked more times (13) than he did in 87 games before the break (10).
- Here is the O's pitching staff ERA by month:
March/April: 4.62
May: 4.68
June: 5.72
July: 5.60
August: 3.38
September (so far): 4.07
Have they gotten a little lucky? Probably. But starters are throwing more innings and giving the bullpen leads to protect -- and fewer innings to throw.
- Brian Matusz, who had to leave the game on Monday after just one inning because of a line drive that struck his left triceps, may have been robbed of a chance to improve his Rookie of the Year chances. Matusz has more than held his own in his rookie season and has thrown a lot of innings, but there's a strong chance that the O's will hold Matusz out of his next start if he's not 100 percent healthy -- as they should. Unfortunately for Matusz, Austin Jackson continues to hit and still seems like the top ROY choice in the American League.
Arrieta was more than solid enough to earn the win, allowing just four hits. He also walked only one batter while striking out five. He hasn't walked more than one batter in a start since August 26, which spans only three starts, but that's still some progress considering he has 52 strikeouts and 48 walks on the season.
The O's are now 8-5 in September and 25-15 overall under Buck Showalter. They're also 8-2 in their last 10 games and could have won all 10 if not for the bullpen blowing two leads late in games. And for whatever the reason, the O's have won a lot more and been much more enjoyable to watch under Showalter. Hopefully that doesn't end and provides a nice lead-in for next season.
A few other notes:
- Since the All-Star break, Wieters is hitting .286/.357/.474 with five home runs. He's also walked 17 times and struck out only 21 times.
- Also, since the All-Star break, Jones is hitting .301/.376/.446 with four home runs. In those 45 games, he's also three walked more times (13) than he did in 87 games before the break (10).
- Here is the O's pitching staff ERA by month:
March/April: 4.62
May: 4.68
June: 5.72
July: 5.60
August: 3.38
September (so far): 4.07
Have they gotten a little lucky? Probably. But starters are throwing more innings and giving the bullpen leads to protect -- and fewer innings to throw.
- Brian Matusz, who had to leave the game on Monday after just one inning because of a line drive that struck his left triceps, may have been robbed of a chance to improve his Rookie of the Year chances. Matusz has more than held his own in his rookie season and has thrown a lot of innings, but there's a strong chance that the O's will hold Matusz out of his next start if he's not 100 percent healthy -- as they should. Unfortunately for Matusz, Austin Jackson continues to hit and still seems like the top ROY choice in the American League.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Arrieta outduels Sabathia in O's win
Jake Arrieta and CC Sabathia both pitched 6.1 innings last night, but Sabathia allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits while Arrieta allowed just two runs on eight hits. Arrieta also walked only one batter while striking out three.
Matt Albers relieved Arrieta in the bottom of the seventh and entered the game in a tough situation -- the Yankees had runners on first and third, one out, and Alex Rodriguez at bat, pinch-hitting for Ramiro Pena. But Albers got two ground balls -- one by Rodriguez and another by Brett Gardner -- to get out of the inning unscathed. Albers, who also pitched a scoreless eighth, lowered his ERA to 4.09. He also hasn't allowed a run since August 14 -- a span of nine appearances. And with a four-run cushion, Mark Hendrickson pitched a scoreless ninth.
So, yes, the three-headed monster of Arrieta, Albers, and Hendrickson held the Yankees to two runs in September. Not a bad performance.
On the season, Arrieta has more walks (46) than strikeouts (44), but he's getting close to changing that and has walked only one batter in his last two starts.
On offense, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Ty Wigginton each had two hits. One of Wigginton's hits was a double. Nolan Reimold hit a two-run home run in the third, giving the O's a 5-1 lead at the time. Felix Pie drew the lone walk for the O's.
The O's have now won four games in a row -- two against the Rays, and two against the Yankees -- and are 4-3 in September. They'll go for the sweep in a day game today as Brad Bergesen faces 23-year-old Ivan Nova. And according to the game preview on ESPN, the O's will try for their first road sweep of the Yankees in more than 24 years.
ROY Watch: Brian Matusz won the first game of the series on Monday, pitching six innings and allowing three runs while striking out four and walking two. The outing didn't do much to lower his ERA (4.71), but he did win his fourth start in a row -- and winning in Yankee Stadium is always a good thing.
Matt Albers relieved Arrieta in the bottom of the seventh and entered the game in a tough situation -- the Yankees had runners on first and third, one out, and Alex Rodriguez at bat, pinch-hitting for Ramiro Pena. But Albers got two ground balls -- one by Rodriguez and another by Brett Gardner -- to get out of the inning unscathed. Albers, who also pitched a scoreless eighth, lowered his ERA to 4.09. He also hasn't allowed a run since August 14 -- a span of nine appearances. And with a four-run cushion, Mark Hendrickson pitched a scoreless ninth.
So, yes, the three-headed monster of Arrieta, Albers, and Hendrickson held the Yankees to two runs in September. Not a bad performance.
On the season, Arrieta has more walks (46) than strikeouts (44), but he's getting close to changing that and has walked only one batter in his last two starts.
On offense, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Ty Wigginton each had two hits. One of Wigginton's hits was a double. Nolan Reimold hit a two-run home run in the third, giving the O's a 5-1 lead at the time. Felix Pie drew the lone walk for the O's.
The O's have now won four games in a row -- two against the Rays, and two against the Yankees -- and are 4-3 in September. They'll go for the sweep in a day game today as Brad Bergesen faces 23-year-old Ivan Nova. And according to the game preview on ESPN, the O's will try for their first road sweep of the Yankees in more than 24 years.
ROY Watch: Brian Matusz won the first game of the series on Monday, pitching six innings and allowing three runs while striking out four and walking two. The outing didn't do much to lower his ERA (4.71), but he did win his fourth start in a row -- and winning in Yankee Stadium is always a good thing.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
O's take first game against Red Sox, face tough test today
Brian Matusz allowed just two runs in six innings, striking out six and walking just one, and Luke Scott and Felix Pie both hit solo home runs in the eighth to give the Orioles a 5-2 win over the Red Sox.
The two runs scored on Matusz came on a two-run shot by Jed Lowrie in the fifth, but those were the only runs the Red Sox could muster against Matusz and the O's bullpen. But with Matusz running out of gas after 98 pitches, the well-rested bullpen went to work, and Jim Johnson, Michael Gonzalez, and Koji Uehara combined for three shutout innings to close the game out. Uehara was particularly impressive, earning a five-out save (his fifth).
The only O's hitters without a hit were Cesar Izturis and Josh Bell, and Scott and Brian Roberts each had two hits. Scott also walked. Nick Markakis went 1-4 with a double, which just happened to be a milestone hit. According to Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com, with the hit Markakis became the 19th outfielder since 1900 to record four seasons with at least 40 doubles. Congrats, Nick.
Tonight, though, the O's face a difficult obstacle in Red Sox ace Jon Lester. Lester is already having another fantastic season -- 14-8, 3.12 ERA, 176 K, 63 BB -- but he particularly thrives against the O's. In 15 career starts against Baltimore, Lester is 12-0 with a 2.00 ERA with 77 strikeouts and just 31 walks. The O's will counter with Jake Arrieta (5.10 ERA, 39 K, 46 BB), who lasted just four innings in his last start, against the White Sox. This will be Arrieta's first career start against the Red Sox.
(Photo via)
Friday, August 27, 2010
Arrieta is walking too many batters
At just 24 years old, Jake Arrieta (5.10 ERA) has had his ups and downs in his first major league season. He's been very good at times, like on August 5 against the Angels when he allowed just two earned runs in 7.2 innings. He's also been occasionally frustrating to watch -- a common occurrence for young pitchers -- for example, his start last night, when he lasted just four innings while giving up four runs on seven hits.
And although he has shown flashes of brilliance, Arrieta has been dealing with one major problem: walks. In fact, he has more walks (46) than strikeouts (39), and he has walked at least two batters in each of his 15 starts. That is not a good sign.
In the minors, Arrieta did walk his fair share of batters, but not at the rate he is right now. Here's his strikeout and walk rates from his time in Frederick, Bowie, Norfolk, and Baltimore:
Now, much of that difference in Baltimore can be attributed to simply facing better hitters who won't chase as many pitches out of the zone. But why did Arrieta start walking almost a batter more per game at Norfolk when he was 24 instead of 23? Sure, it's not a big innings sample size, but it's still a bit odd, especially considering that his strikeout rate essentially stayed the same.
So what's the problem? Is Arrieta nibbling too much? Does he not trust his stuff enough to finish hitters off? Or is he just getting used to facing major league hitters who won't swing at pitches that many minor leaguers go after? It's probably a combination of all three, and it may be worth exploring if Arrieta's still struggling with his command next season. Right now, I think Arrieta deserves the benefit of the doubt because, after all, he's only thrown 83 major league innings. However, it's difficult enough to pitch effectively in the majors without walking nearly five batters per nine innings. Hopefully Arrieta makes the necessary improvements in the near future and pitches more efficiently in the zone.
And although he has shown flashes of brilliance, Arrieta has been dealing with one major problem: walks. In fact, he has more walks (46) than strikeouts (39), and he has walked at least two batters in each of his 15 starts. That is not a good sign.
In the minors, Arrieta did walk his fair share of batters, but not at the rate he is right now. Here's his strikeout and walk rates from his time in Frederick, Bowie, Norfolk, and Baltimore:
| Team | IP | K/9 | BB/9 |
| Frederick | 113.0 | 9.6 | 4.1 |
| Bowie | 59.0 | 10.7 | 3.5 |
| Norfolk (23) | 91.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 |
| Norfolk (24) | 73.0 | 7.9 | 4.2 |
| Baltimore | 83.0 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
Now, much of that difference in Baltimore can be attributed to simply facing better hitters who won't chase as many pitches out of the zone. But why did Arrieta start walking almost a batter more per game at Norfolk when he was 24 instead of 23? Sure, it's not a big innings sample size, but it's still a bit odd, especially considering that his strikeout rate essentially stayed the same.
So what's the problem? Is Arrieta nibbling too much? Does he not trust his stuff enough to finish hitters off? Or is he just getting used to facing major league hitters who won't swing at pitches that many minor leaguers go after? It's probably a combination of all three, and it may be worth exploring if Arrieta's still struggling with his command next season. Right now, I think Arrieta deserves the benefit of the doubt because, after all, he's only thrown 83 major league innings. However, it's difficult enough to pitch effectively in the majors without walking nearly five batters per nine innings. Hopefully Arrieta makes the necessary improvements in the near future and pitches more efficiently in the zone.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Arrieta, O's complete four-game sweep of Rangers
Perhaps the oddest series of the MLB season came to a close yesterday when the Orioles completed a 4-1 win over the Rangers to earn a four-game sweep on the road. Not only were the O's an MLB worst 25-59 heading into the series, but the Rangers were playing great baseball and were 50-34.
I don't want to make too much of it -- after all, it was just one series -- but, then again, it was the first four-game road sweep for the O's since 1995. Fifteen years. That's a long time.
As for the game itself, Jake Arrieta allowed one run on six hits in 6.1 innings to win his third game. He also struck out three and walked two. Will Ohman relieved Arrieta and struggled a bit, giving up a hit and and a walk while failing to retire a batter, but Jason Berken pitched 1.2 scoreless innings to pick him up. Alfredo Simon pitched a scoreless ninth for the save.
The O's collected eight hits and five walks, allowing them to knock out Rangers' starter C.J. Wilson after only 4.2 innings pitched (and a total of 111 pitches). Julio Lugo had two hits, including a double, and Nick Markakis, Ty Wigginton, and Craig Tatum all had singles. Corey Patterson and Adam Jones each doubled, and Miguel Tejada hit a solo home run in the ninth inning to extend the O's lead to three.
The sweep improved the O's record to 29-59, which is obviously still very bad. But they're one game of getting out of the MLB cellar: The Pirates are 30-58 and have lost six in a row. And despite the one-game difference between the two, the Pirates have been outscored by an MLB worst 194 runs. The O's have been second worst (-142), but that's still 52 runs better. Just some food for thought.
Heading into the All-Star break, here are the O's team leaders in various offensive categories:
OBP: Nick Markakis (.395)
AVG: Nick Markakis (.308)
Runs: Adam Jones (44)
HR: Adam Jones, Ty Wigginton (14)
Doubles: Nick Markakis (28)
RBI: Ty Wigginton (45)
Walks: Nick Markakis (50)
SLG: Luke Scott (.520)
OPS: Luke Scott (.868)
WAR: Nick Markakis (2.2)
Markakis has been the team's best all-around hitter, and he hits a lot of doubles and walks a lot. Wigginton, the team's lone All-Star, has a lot of the counting stats like RBI and HRs (most of which came earlier in the season). Unfortunately, he's been rather cold at the plate lately and also has been awful in the field. It's also a shame that Scott has been stuck on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring. Most people discuss Wigginton as one of the main trade chips for the O's, but Scott is the better hitter between the two and should be worth more in the trade market.
Here are the team's pitching leaders:
ERA (starters): Jake Arrieta (4.38)
ERA (relievers): Jason Berken 1.95)
Strikeouts: Kevin Millwood (84)
K/9 (starters): Kevin Millwood (7.02)
Innings pitched: Jeremy Guthrie (111.1)
Quality starts: Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz (10)
Walks: Brian Matusz (38)
HR allowed: Kevin Millwood (20)
Wins: David Hernandez (4)
WAR: Brian Matusz (1.4)
Alfredo Simon also leads the team with 13 saves. What an awesome first half for Berken, who has been outstanding in the bullpen.
The O's haven't been very good -- that's a given. But hopefully they can build off of the sweep against the Rangers and play better baseball in the second half of the season.
I don't want to make too much of it -- after all, it was just one series -- but, then again, it was the first four-game road sweep for the O's since 1995. Fifteen years. That's a long time.
As for the game itself, Jake Arrieta allowed one run on six hits in 6.1 innings to win his third game. He also struck out three and walked two. Will Ohman relieved Arrieta and struggled a bit, giving up a hit and and a walk while failing to retire a batter, but Jason Berken pitched 1.2 scoreless innings to pick him up. Alfredo Simon pitched a scoreless ninth for the save.
The O's collected eight hits and five walks, allowing them to knock out Rangers' starter C.J. Wilson after only 4.2 innings pitched (and a total of 111 pitches). Julio Lugo had two hits, including a double, and Nick Markakis, Ty Wigginton, and Craig Tatum all had singles. Corey Patterson and Adam Jones each doubled, and Miguel Tejada hit a solo home run in the ninth inning to extend the O's lead to three.
The sweep improved the O's record to 29-59, which is obviously still very bad. But they're one game of getting out of the MLB cellar: The Pirates are 30-58 and have lost six in a row. And despite the one-game difference between the two, the Pirates have been outscored by an MLB worst 194 runs. The O's have been second worst (-142), but that's still 52 runs better. Just some food for thought.
Heading into the All-Star break, here are the O's team leaders in various offensive categories:
OBP: Nick Markakis (.395)
AVG: Nick Markakis (.308)
Runs: Adam Jones (44)
HR: Adam Jones, Ty Wigginton (14)
Doubles: Nick Markakis (28)
RBI: Ty Wigginton (45)
Walks: Nick Markakis (50)
SLG: Luke Scott (.520)
OPS: Luke Scott (.868)
WAR: Nick Markakis (2.2)
Markakis has been the team's best all-around hitter, and he hits a lot of doubles and walks a lot. Wigginton, the team's lone All-Star, has a lot of the counting stats like RBI and HRs (most of which came earlier in the season). Unfortunately, he's been rather cold at the plate lately and also has been awful in the field. It's also a shame that Scott has been stuck on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring. Most people discuss Wigginton as one of the main trade chips for the O's, but Scott is the better hitter between the two and should be worth more in the trade market.
Here are the team's pitching leaders:
ERA (starters): Jake Arrieta (4.38)
ERA (relievers): Jason Berken 1.95)
Strikeouts: Kevin Millwood (84)
K/9 (starters): Kevin Millwood (7.02)
Innings pitched: Jeremy Guthrie (111.1)
Quality starts: Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz (10)
Walks: Brian Matusz (38)
HR allowed: Kevin Millwood (20)
Wins: David Hernandez (4)
WAR: Brian Matusz (1.4)
Alfredo Simon also leads the team with 13 saves. What an awesome first half for Berken, who has been outstanding in the bullpen.
The O's haven't been very good -- that's a given. But hopefully they can build off of the sweep against the Rangers and play better baseball in the second half of the season.
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