The O's still aren't developing younger players

The Orioles lost again last night, but that's not surprising considering how they've been playing lately. The loss included bad starting pitching, terrible relief pitching, and mediocre hitting -- all things that the O's excel at right now. (For what it's worth, Matt Wieters did steal a base [the first of his career], which is something that should never happen.)

It's hard to watch the O's at the moment for obvious reasons; it's never fun to tune in to watch your team lose night in and night out. But something that's even more troubling is an issue that has been plaguing the O's for more than a decade: They still aren't developing their young talent.

Let's take a look at O's players 27 years old and younger and how they're doing. Sure, 27 seems like an arbitrary number and isn't necessarily "young," but it's my list. Here they are, with hitters listed first, then pitchers.

Adam Jones: .283/.326/.457. Jones, who turns 26 on August 1, was having a very good season a few weeks ago before he started to slump a bit and his numbers took a tumble. Still, his numbers are still up slightly and he's on pace to have his best season in Baltimore. It's somewhat concerning that FanGraphs doesn't rate his defense very highly, and the same is true this season. I've wondered why Jones seems to make several fantastic, flashy plays but tends to have a few defensive lapses here and there and not always make the routine plays. I still think he's a pretty good center fielder, but he just may not be an elite one. The same can be said of his skills at the plate; he's not necessarily going to be an elite hitter, but he can be a productive hitter who isn't batting at the top of the lineup. Jones hasn't developed (yet) into a star, per se, but he's still one of the best young players the O's have.

Matt Wieters: .269/.319/.413. The 25-year-old Wieters, the lone O's All-Star this season, still seems to make many people angry because he's not hitting like Joe Mauer. Because of his pre-O's hype, many expected him to completely alter the entire franchise with his amazing abilities. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened, but he's still an intriguing piece. Thanks to his .288/.340/.412 batting line in 385 plate appearances in his rookie year (2009), Wieters probably set the bar a little too high, too early. He hasn't been able to hit for that average or get on base that often since then, but he is hitting for as much power this season and has shown signs that he may be able to hit for even more. It is surprising that with his eye at the plate he doesn't walk more (6.7 BB% this season) -- though he did walk three times last night. While he still has work to do at the plate, Wieters has developed into one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball. He's caught 24 of 54 runners (44.4 percent stolen base percentage), far and away the best among all qualified MLB catchers. (The next closest is Alex Avila, at 36.9 percent.) FanGraphs rates his defense the highest among all catchers as well, which is also a top reason why he's leading the O's with a WAR of 2.3.

Nick Markakis: .293/.339/.385. Markakis, 27, has been on fire over the last few weeks and has turned his season around. He's still not walking a ton or hitting for a whole lot of power, but he's been much better lately. Check out my recent post on Markakis for more analysis.

Nolan Reimold: .271/.362/.492. Reimold turns 28 in October, and the O's still have no idea if he's an everyday player or not. Buck Showalter obviously doesn't think too highly of him or else he wouldn't be mostly benching Reimold when a lefty isn't on the mound or pinch-hitting Felix Pie for him. I've written about Reimold plenty lately, so I don't have much more to say. But I will add this: I don't have much faith in the O's playing well in the second half of the season, but I do hope they give Reimold, and maybe some other younger players in Triple-A, some playing time that's being wasted on guys like Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee.

Mark Reynolds: .230/.350/.504. Like Markakis, Reynolds, who turns 28 in August, has turned it on lately and has been hitting the cover off the ball. Unlike Markakis, many of those hits have been home runs. I'm not sure if he's quite this good or not, but he's hitting for a lot of power and is getting on base. He also walks much more than anyone on the team, another valuable skill. Under Reynolds's current contract, he's due to make $7.5 million next season and has a club option for $11 million (with a $0.5 million buyout). Compared with someone like J.J. Hardy, who will likely be looking to cash in as a free agent, Reynolds is still under team control for at least one more season. There's value in that, especially if the O's want to deal him before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Reynolds has been an absolutely terrible defender at third base this year, and he'll probably need to be moved to either 1B or DH. If the O's had a better option at third, it's possible that Reynolds would have already been moved across the infield to play first. But they don't, and that may play a part in the O's holding onto Reynolds instead of dealing him.

Felix Pie: .231/.244/.282. Pie, 26, probably isn't anything better than a fourth outfielder (if that). Sure, he doesn't receive consistent playing time, but he's never really showed the ability to hit or get on base. He has some value as a defensive replacement and a runner, but that's about it. Sorry, Felix.

Zach Britton: 3.47 ERA, 3.82 xFIP. At 23, Britton has taken over the role as the most promising pitcher on the O's roster. Britton has already thrown over 100 innings, so it's probable that the O's will limit the rookie's workload in the second half of the season. With the way the other young starters have pitched, Britton and Jeremy Guthrie are basically carrying the load right now. Britton (1.7) is second in WAR among all rookie pitchers behind Michael Pineda of the Mariners (2.5). Not bad at all.

Brian Matusz: 8.77 ERA, 5.06 xFIP. Matusz (24) is supposed to be in the O's rotation right now, providing another reliable starting option. Instead, he's back in Triple-A Norfolk after a frustrating, awful return from the disabled list. Much has been written about Matusz's reduced velocity, and it's possible that he's still hurt. But if he never recovers that velocity, he'll have to learn to pitch a new way. It won't be easy, but Matusz still has the secondary stuff to be an effective starter even without that low-90s fastball.

Jake Arrieta: 4.90 ERA, 4.33 xFIP. Like Matusz, the 25-year-old Arrieta has disappointed (though not as much). The frustrating thing about Arrieta is that he has the stuff to be effective, but he can't seem to find the strike zone consistently. He's walking 4.44 batters per nine, which is way too many. He walked four again last night in an ineffective outing against the Red Sox. And there's also a concern that Arrieta may have some kind of elbow injury. I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this soon.

Chris Tillman: 4.69 ERA, 4.86 xFIP. There's not a whole lot to say about Tillman (23) right now. Tillman received 10 starts at the beginning of the season, and he pitched OK at times. His big issue, though, was his inability to stock around past the fifth inning, because he tends to throw lots of pitches each inning. When he was demoted, instead of returning to Norfolk and dominating Triple-A hitters in an effort to get back to Baltimore, he's still struggling, walking too many batters and not striking out enough either. I'll be surprised if he doesn't return to the O's at some point later in the season, but he has plenty left to prove. It's also worth mentioning that he's about four months younger than Britton.

Brason Berkensen: 5.90 ERA, 4.06 xFIP; 5.92 ERA, 4.39 xFIP. Jason Berken (27) and Brad Bergesen (turns 26 in September) aren't quite the same -- Bergesen is younger and probably a little better -- but I'm lumping them together because they're both pitching out of the bullpen and haven't been very good. Both have pitched well at times this year, but they're essentially the mop-up crew now (you could add Alfredo Simon to that group, too). Whenever the O's are down by more than a few runs, one of them is usually the guy the O's turn to to get through the next few innings. Sure, there's value in that if it's done properly, but I have a hard time believing that either guy will ever be effective over an entire season (especially in the AL East).

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There's also a few guys in Norfolk -- Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell, Ryan Adams, Troy Patton, Matt Angle -- who have some promise, but that's not much to choose from. The goal all along was for the guys above to take the next step (or several steps) forward, but only a few have really done that.

The Orioles are not like the Astros

Earlier today on ESPN's SweetSpot blog, Austin Swafford (of Astros 290) wrote that the Orioles are headed down a dangerous road -- similar to one the Astros have taken the last few years. In the piece, Swafford argued that the O's didn't need to make many of their offseason moves because the O's are not "a few overpriced veterans away from going to the World Series."

Here's more of what he had to say:

There's certainly nothing wrong with trying to win right now if you have the right parts. But I have thought about the lesson that could be learned from the Astros as I have watched the Orioles since the end of last season. They closed 2010 on a good note. They hired Buck Showalter and, with him at the helm, went 34-23 to end the year.

So, naturally, they looked around at their very talented division and said, "No rush. We have a good manager, we're making good progress and we have young talent. We can be patient while that young talent develops." Right?

It'd be nice if that were the case, but instead of doing that, the Orioles got very involved in free agency, went out and got J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Gregg. Average age: 31.8.

They're not all old and I don't dislike all of the signings, but why the urgency? Why the apparently desperate need to compete now when they probably won't?

I encourage you to read the whole post. Swafford made some strong points, some of which have been brought up by other baseball analysts, and even O's fans themselves.

But here are a few points before I get to my main problem with the piece:

• Yes, the O's did sign or trade for all of those players listed above. Hardy, Lee, Guerrero, and Duchscherer are all signed to one-year deals. Gregg signed a two-year deal, and sure, that was far from the best signing. And Reynolds has a guaranteed deal through 2012, with a club option for 2013. I'm not arguing that all of those deals are fantastic and will definitely work out, but they hardly strain the organization's position financially like Carlos Lee's six-year, $100 million deal in 2007 with the Astros.
• The O's did not trade away a bunch of young talent in an effort to get better overnight. The best player the O's traded, David Hernandez, is a reliever. Kam Mickolio and Jim Hoey are also relievers who either couldn't stay healthy or simply weren't very effective (or both), and Brett Jacobson, another reliever, is 24 and hasn't played above Single A. Those players -- four relievers -- still have some value, but not a ton of upside. So it's not like the O's took an enormous gamble or anything on Reynolds or Hardy.
• No one thinks the O's are going to the World Series. Even the most optimistic fans would be thrilled with third place -- not that that's the ultimate goal (it's obviously not), but still. It's possible that Andy MacPhail made a few of the team's moves (like the Guerrero signing) to improve the team in the short term, which would be unfortunate. But even someone like Guerrero could possibly be flipped at the trade deadline for a younger player or two, as could several other veterans.

Really, though, my problem is with Swafford's thinking that many of these signed players are blocking MLB-ready talent. To me, there are only two cases where that applies:

1) Guerrero, who's signing may block Felix Pie/Nolan Reimold
2) Duchscherer, who may force Chris Tillman (or another young starter) back to Triple A

That's it. Reynolds, Hardy, and Lee are not blocking anyone in the infield. Josh Bell has recently been working out at first base, but he showed last season that he's not close to being ready to assuming any kind of everyday role. Brandon Snyder probably isn't ready either, if he ever will be. With Guerrero serving as the O's designated hitter, Luke Scott will move to left field, which will likely force Pie and Reimold to either the bench or the minors. It would be nice to see both get regular playing time, so in that sense, Guerrero does seem to be blocking them. But, as I've mentioned before, Pie is 26 and Reimold is 27; we're not talking about young up-and-comers here.

Then there's Duchscherer. Duchscherer is 33, and the O's are banking on him returning to form to give the O's another reliable option in the rotation. If he stays healthy (not a guarantee) and pitches well, he may be another player the O's could trade at the deadline. But he was signed for less than $1 million, so if he can't stay healthy or is ineffective, it's not a huge loss. Considering the O's already have several other young starters to choose from -- Brian Matusz (24), Brad Bergesen (25), Jake Arrieta (24), and Tillman (22), and even Zach Britton (23) down the road -- it's not the worst thing to bring in a low-risk, high-reward starter like Duchscherer. What's the worst that could happen? That Duchscherer keeps getting hurt? Or maybe that he stays healthy enough to pitch but isn't effective? If that's the case, the O's aren't required to keep him in the rotation, and it wouldn't be difficult to let him go. It would be nice to give every young starter plenty of chances, but the season is long and pitchers always get hurt. There will be opportunities during the season to perform.

If someone wants to make the argument (like Keith Law has) that the O's would have been better off using money on signing international prospects or putting that money toward draft picks, that's one thing. But it's hard to get too upset with the majority of moves the O's have made, especially since most of the contracts signed are short-term deals. Besides maybe Gregg, the O's are not stuck with a truly horrible contract, and even Gregg is signed for just two years.

Considering what the O's have gone through for the last 13 seasons, it's hard to say that the O's are headed for trouble. They've been in a ton of trouble for a while, and while playing in the AL East, things will not get any easier. They still have a ton of work to do, but when is that not the case?

Matusz dominates, O's win fourth straight

The 2010 season is coming to a close for the Orioles -- there's just one game left -- yet they continue to play inspired baseball under Buck Showalter. On Friday, they won both games of a doubleheader against the Tigers to begin the four-game series, and yesterday Brian Matusz earned his 10th win by pitching six innings of one-run ball in a 2-1 victory. Matusz gave up two hits (one a solo home run) and two walks while striking out nine.

The O's offense collected just three hits and one walk, but a solo homer by Nick Markakis in the fourth and a Matt Wieters sacrifice fly in the fifth were enough for Matusz and the bullpen. Michael Gonzalez and Jim Johnson each threw scoreless innings, and Koji Uehara pitched another scoreless ninth for his 13th save.

In the O's final game of this season today, Brad Bergesen will take the mound, trying to give the O's their 67th win, which would be three more wins than last season. Again, that's not a huge jump, but it's all about baby steps, especially in the brutal AL East.

By the way, whether or not Matusz wins the AL Rookie of the Year award or even receives many votes, he deserves a lot of praise. He's given the O's a ton of value -- 2.6 WAR and 175.2 innings pitched -- and has lowered his ERA on the season to 4.30 and his FIP to 4.06. He still walks a few too many batters, but he's also pitched much more effectively since the All-Star break.

Pre-All-Star break: 103.2 IP, 4.77 ERA, 80 K, 38 BB
Post-All-Star break: 72.0 IP, 3.63 ERA, 63 K, 25 BB

Matusz still has a lot of room to grow, but in his first full season in the majors, he got stronger as the season went along and finished with solid numbers. It's hard to ask a rookie starter for much more than that.

O's top Dice-K, Red Sox

The Orioles scored four runs off of Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Brian Matusz and the bullpen held the Red Sox to just two runs on five hits in a 4-2 O's win. Matusz didn't get the win and only pitched five innings because of a high pitch count -- he walked three and finished with 102 pitches -- but he also struck out four and gave up only one run on three hits. That's not the most effective start, but it worked.

David Hernandez got the win, allowing one run in two innings, and Jim Johnson and Koji Uehara each threw a scoreless inning. Uehara also earned his 10th save.

Nick Markakis and Luke Scott each had two hits and a walk. Both of Markakis's hits were doubles. Brian Roberts had a single and two walks, and Felix Pie, Cesar Izturis, and Josh Bell each singled. Matt Wieters went hitless but did draw a walk.

With the win, the O's pull to 8-8 on the season against the Red Sox, a monumental accomplishment considering how poorly the O's have played against not only the Red Sox in the last few seasons, but also the entire AL East. Here are the O's records against Boston since 2005:

2005: 8-10
2006: 3-15
2007: 6-12
2008: 6-12
2009: 2-16

Sure, the Red Sox are down this year, but they're still 83-67, which would be good enough to compete in most divisions that don't also include the Yankees and the Rays -- and another .500 team, the Blue Jays (currently 75-74).

At 60-90 after last night's win, the O's have 12 games left: two more in Boston, three in Toronto, three in Tampa Bay, and four at home against the Tigers. If the O's can win just three of those, they'll avoid 100 losses, which is pretty impressive considering how awful things were going a couple months ago. By the way, the O's are now 28-17 since Buck Showalter took over.

And for what it's worth, the O's are now just two games back of the Nationals (62-88).

Does Matusz have a chance at AL ROY?

In Keith Law's latest ESPN.com chat, someone had a question about Brian Matusz:

Bub (DC)
Matusz started off great, then terrible, now he looks great again. Can he be a legitimate top of the rotation starter as soon as next season?

Klaw (2:18 PM)
I might still vote for him as AL ROY if I had that ballot. I certainly believe in his long-term value far more than I believe in Austin Jackson's, and the AL East is a brutal place to pitch, especially if you don't get to face the division's worst lineup. I'll say he's an ace in 2012 or 2013, with modest improvements next year.

Not a bad compliment at all. And as far as the Rookie of the Year award goes, there's no question that the National League race is more exciting this season than in the American League. But, as always, there are still candidates to be sorted and an award to be handed out. Catcher Carlos Santana of the Indians would have been the clear-cut winner if he had stayed healthy, but he's out for the season and hasn't played since August 2. Tigers centerfielder Austin Jackson seems to be the front-runner at this point, but with the run Matusz went on in August, he's making a push for the award.

Let's take a look at Jackson, Matusz, and some of the other ROY options in the AL.

Austin Jackson, CF, Tigers: .309/.363/.419, 3 HR, 21 SB

Just looking at overall numbers, Jackson is having a phenomenal season for a rookie. He's not hitting for much power, but he's getting on base at a pretty good clip, stealing bases (and only caught five times), and playing slightly above average defense (0.9 UZR) at a difficult position. Those numbers make Jackson worth about 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) and nearly $13.8 million, according to FanGraphs.

However, exactly how sustainable are Jackson's numbers in the long term? Regardless of whether or not you think the ROY award should have some sort of future element linked to it, it should be noted that Jackson has an unsustainable .422 BABIP, and he also strikes out a lot (27.6 K%) while not really walking a ton (7.1 BB%). Right now, his combination of speed and hitting a lot of ground balls (48.9%) and line drives (25.7%) is working, but when his BABIP goes down, his numbers will drop as well. It's tough to suggest that he's been rather lucky for nearly an entire season, but that does seem to be the case.

With about a month left to go in the season, can Jackson keep it up? Or will his numbers start to drop before then? That may be the difference in whether or not he wins the award. (Though, position players do seem to hold an advantage to winning the award over pitchers since they play everyday.)

Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles: 4.72 ERA, 6.99 K/9, 3.23 BB/9

I've written about Matusz a few times lately, basically pointing out that he had a much-improved August and has been pitching much better. Right now, he's been worth 1.9 WAR and $7.8 million, first among AL rookie starters. He also has more strikeouts (117) and more innings pitched (150.2) than any other AL rookie.

Since I've talked about Matusz enough before, I'll mention something else: FanGraphs WAR tends to factor in defense and be slightly higher for position players, which may account for Jackson's WAR being 3.4 and Matusz's at 1.9. At Baseball-Reference, Jackson and Matusz are closer (2.5 for Jackson, 2.1 for Matusz). That's at least worth noting.

Brennan Boesch, OF, Tigers: .268/.330/.447, 14 HR

The Tigers promoted Boesch in late April, and he started out his major league career on fire. He was still mashing the ball until about early July, when his numbers started to tail off considerably. On July 9, Boesch was hitting .345/.402/.600 -- a rather impressive slash line for a rookie after a few months. But he's cooled off and isn't doing much hitting at all lately. In July, he hit .209/.311/.253, and in August he hit .185/.227/.304. Also, after hitting 11 home runs in May and June, Boesch has hit just two homers since.

It's unlikely that Boesch will turn his hitting numbers around this season; it's also possible that pitchers have found out how to pitch to him. And other than his hitting, Boesch doesn't bring a whole lot to the table -- as of right now, he has a combined UZR of -2.9 in left and right field. For the season, FanGraphs has him at 1.3 WAR, while Baseball-Reference has him at 1.7 WAR.

Danny Valencia, 3B, Twins: .343/.382/.454, 2 HR

Valencia's first game didn't come until June 3, so he's only played in 63 games. But he's been extremely valuable for the Twins -- 2.4 WAR on FanGraphs and 2.6 WAR on Baseball-Reference -- so it's certainly hard to ignore what he's done. Valencia doesn't hit for much power (only two homers), but he does have 16 doubles and a triple. He also doesn't walk much (6.4 BB%) but doesn't strike out a ton either (13.4 K%). He has hit a decent amount of line drives (19.6%) too, but mainly his offensive production is fueled by a .385 BABIP. That's not to suggest he's a bad hitter, but it's not likely that his numbers will still be this high by the end of the season.

And that's where the other valuable part of his game comes in handy: Valencia has been phenomenal defensively at third base. His UZR right now is 5.8, so even if his offensive numbers drop a bit, he'll still maintain plenty of value as long as he keeps producing with the glove.

Wade Davis, SP, Rays: 4.29 ERA, 5.69 K/9, 3.42 BB/9

Davis has put together two positive starts after coming back from the 15-day disabled list with a right shoulder strain. On August 24, he got the win against the Angels after giving up two runs in 5.1 innings, and on August 30, he held the Blue Jays to two runs over 7.2 innings to earn another win. Davis is a case in which his ERA doesn't necessarily indicate his true pitching performance -- he has a 5.10 FIP and a 4.96 xFIP -- so a pitcher like Matusz has had a better season even though Matusz has a higher ERA.

Still, Davis has held his own in his rookie season, though FanGraphs (0.3 WAR) and Baseball-Reference (1.7 WAR) differ on his value.

Reid Brignac, 2B/SS, Rays: .261/.310/.383, 6 HR

Like Ben Zobrist, Brignac can play multiple positions. This season, he's played most of his games at second base and shortstop, but he has also played a couple innings in right field, so he can likely play a few innings at a corner outfield spot and not hurt the Rays. His offensive numbers have cooled off somewhat, but then again, he doesn't receive regular playing time with guys like Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, and Sean Rodriguez all getting some time at the two middle infield positions.

While Brignac is flexible in the field, he's not really as flexible at the plate. He doesn't walk much (5.6 BB%), but he strikes out a huge amount (27.3 K%). He also hits a decent amount of line drives (20.7%), but he actually hits more fly balls (41.0%) than ground balls (38.3%).

Brignac has also been decent in the field, putting together a combined 1.6 UZR at shortstop and second. His fielding helps his value, especially since he doesn't get on base a whole lot.

Mitch Talbot, SP, Indians: 4.40 ERA, 4.95 K/9, 3.97 BB/9

This is basically just a brief mentioning of Talbot, as I don't think he has much of a chance at winning the award. In 147.1 innings pitched, he only has 81 strikeouts. He's done an effective job pitching to contact, getting lots of ground balls (48.3%) and not giving up too many line drives (17.0%). And it's not like he's been terribly lucky or anything either -- his BABIP is right around .300, at .302. FanGraphs (1.2) and Baseball-Reference (0.1) differ on his WAR, though, which is pretty interesting.

Neftali Feliz, RP, Rangers: 3.26 ERA, 34 saves, 9.16 K/9, 2.48 K/9

Feliz, the Rangers' 22-year-old flame-throwing closer, has been steady all season. He earned his first save of the season on April 12, and he hasn't looked back. In 58.0 innings pitched, he has 59 strikeouts and just 16 walks -- fantastic numbers for such a young player on a team most likely headed to the playoffs. He's also only blown three saves all season.

Because he's a reliever and hasn't pitched as many innings as some of the young starters, he probably won't receive a ton of votes. Still, he has a bright future, and the Rangers could even decide to give Feliz a chance to earn a spot in the team's rotation next spring. A solid starter is almost always worth more than an elite closer, so it would make sense to give Feliz a chance to start. Still, even if he ends up as the team's long-term closer, there's no reason why he can't shine in that role for years to come.

John Jaso, C, Rays: .281/.390/.405, 5 HR

Here's something I didn't know: Jaso was one of the Rays' September call-ups in 2008. Then, in 2009, he didn't make it to the majors at all. But he made his first start this season on April 17 and has stuck with the team since -- and he's doing a very good job. Splitting time with Dioner Navarro and Kelly Shoppach, Jaso has been the team's best option behind the plate. He's not afraid to take a walk (14.9%), and he actually walks more than he strikes out (12.0%). He hasn't hit for much power -- 15 doubles, two triples, five homers -- so most of his offensive value comes from drawing those walks and getting on base.

As a rookie, Jaso deserves credit for keeping that OBP high all season. He deserves even more credit for doing that while playing such a demanding position. If Carlos Santana were still healthy, it's not likely many people would have noticed the solid contributions of Jaso, but with Santana injured, Jaso is the AL's best rookie catcher playing right now.

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So that about does it. I may have missed a rookie or two, or listed maybe a couple of guys who either have no shot at winning or maybe didn't deserve to be mentioned. If I had to give my top three right now, it would probably look like this:

1. Austin Jackson
2. Brian Matusz
3. Danny Valencia

Because I didn't list every player's WAR, here's a ranking of all nine players above based on their WARs from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference averaged together. (Not that wins above replacement is the final word when it comes to ranking players, but it is still helpful.)

1. Austin Jackson (2.95)
2. Danny Valencia (2.50)
3. John Jaso (2.25)
4. Brian Matusz (2.00)
5. Brennan Boesch (1.50)
6. Neftali Feliz (1.35)
7. Wade Davis (1.00)
8. Reid Brignac (0.75)
9. Mitch Talbot (0.65)

So to answer the question of this post, yes, Matusz does have a chance at the AL Rookie of the Year award. But he's going to have to be fantastic in his last few starts this season, and he may even need guys like Jackson and Valencia to take a step back. Jaso might have a chance as well, but the award may just be Jackson's to lose.

O's take first game against Red Sox, face tough test today

Brian Matusz allowed just two runs in six innings, striking out six and walking just one, and Luke Scott and Felix Pie both hit solo home runs in the eighth to give the Orioles a 5-2 win over the Red Sox.

The two runs scored on Matusz came on a two-run shot by Jed Lowrie in the fifth, but those were the only runs the Red Sox could muster against Matusz and the O's bullpen. But with Matusz running out of gas after 98 pitches, the well-rested bullpen went to work, and Jim Johnson, Michael Gonzalez, and Koji Uehara combined for three shutout innings to close the game out. Uehara was particularly impressive, earning a five-out save (his fifth).

The only O's hitters without a hit were Cesar Izturis and Josh Bell, and Scott and Brian Roberts each had two hits. Scott also walked. Nick Markakis went 1-4 with a double, which just happened to be a milestone hit. According to Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com, with the hit Markakis became the 19th outfielder since 1900 to record four seasons with at least 40 doubles. Congrats, Nick.

Tonight, though, the O's face a difficult obstacle in Red Sox ace Jon Lester. Lester is already having another fantastic season -- 14-8, 3.12 ERA, 176 K, 63 BB -- but he particularly thrives against the O's. In 15 career starts against Baltimore, Lester is 12-0 with a 2.00 ERA with 77 strikeouts and just 31 walks. The O's will counter with Jake Arrieta (5.10 ERA, 39 K, 46 BB), who lasted just four innings in his last start, against the White Sox. This will be Arrieta's first career start against the Red Sox.

(Photo via)

Matusz cruises in O's victory over Rangers

Brian Matusz befuddled Rangers hitters and threw eight innings of shutout ball, and the Orioles lineup finally broke through against Colby Lewis in the seventh inning to score four runs to give the O's a 4-0 win on Thursday night. The O's managed to score those four runs on 11 hits, but the real story was Matusz.

Throwing 115 pitches by the time his night was done, he allowed just five hits while striking out six and walking one. Matusz induced about the same amount of ground balls (8) and fly balls (9), and he also gave up just one extra-base hit: a double to Andres Blanco, who was thrown out on the play trying to advance to third.

Koji Uehara maintained the shutout by throwing a scoreless ninth inning.

But back to Matusz: The performance last night lowered his ERA to 4.97 -- the first time his ERA has been under 5 since July 9. And although he struggled against Tampa Bay in his last start (4.0 IP, 9 H, 5 ER), he's been solid in August, allowing just one earned run each in the other two starts in the month. Another strong sign is that his walks are down this month (five walks in 24 innings).

It's been fun to watch Matusz's growth as a starting pitcher, and he should continue to improve as he gets more major league innings under his belt. The growing pains likely aren't done yet, but remember, he's just 23 years old and has still been the O's best pitcher this season.

(For a more in-depth look at Matusz's strengths, weaknesses, and improvements he needs to make, check out this article on FanGraphs by David Golebiewski.)

Roberts picks up Simon with walk-off HR in the 10th

Brian Roberts led off the bottom of the 10th inning with a home run to give the Orioles a 3-2 win -- their sixth win in seven games under manager Buck Showalter. Going into the ninth and clinging to a 2-1 lead, closer Alfredo Simon allowed a solo shot to Paul Konerko to tie the game.

Besides Simon, the rest of the O's pitchers were solid. Brian Matusz gave up one run on three hits in six innings, lowering his ERA to 5.08. He also struck out four and walked two. Because of Simon's blown save, Matusz didn't get the win, but his performance was good enough to win on most nights. Koji Uehara relieved Matusz and pitched two scoreless innings. He didn't allow a hit and only needed 16 pitches to retire six consecutive batters. Michael Gonzalez did an effective job of relieving Simon and escaping the ninth inning without giving up the go-ahead run. Matt Albers also retired two batters in the top of the 10th and eventually earned the win.

Back to Uehara for a minute: He's been on a bit of a roll lately. Since giving up two runs in an appearance against Detroit on July 5, Uehara has allowed just one run -- against Toronto on July 28 -- and has struck out 14 batters and walked just one in 12.2 innings. During that span, he's lowered his ERA from 4.50 to 2.18. My beef with Uehara has never been that he isn't effective -- just that, at least earlier in the season, he seemed to tire when having to throw more than a few pitches in humid weather. Whether or not it's because he's in improved shape or just feeling better now that he's healthy, he's been outstanding lately and is looking like the best reliever in the O's bullpen.

The offense was held in check by White Sox starter Edwin Jackson through the first five innings, though they did put up two runs (one earned) against him in six innings. The O's finally got to him in the sixth with a Ty Wigginton solo home run. Then, aided by a Dayan Viciedo error, the O's loaded the bases with one out and took a 2-1 lead on a Matt Wieters RBI fielder's choice to first base. Instead of immediately throwing home, first baseman Konerko fielded the ball, touched first base, and then threw home too late to nail a sliding Luke Scott at the plate.

Besides the home runs by Wigginton and Roberts, the O's had six other hits, all singles, by Wigginton (2-4), Scott (2-4), Adam Jones (1-3, walk), and Felix Pie (2-4). Roberts also walked.

One other note: There's no question that Josh Bell is struggling mightily at the plate. In 52 at-bats, Bell has just eight hits (one double). He's also struck out 21 times while failing to draw a walk -- a dangerous sign. It's not a positive sign either that he batted ninth behind Cesar Izturis last night. He's simply been overmatched, and I'm just not sure this can be good for his development -- and I was one of the people clamoring for him to get more playing time when Miguel Tejada was still on the roster. And yet, that isn't the only problem. On a few plays in the field last night, Bell was too tentative. He was called off on a routine (though very high) pop up to third base by Izturis, and on another play, Bell failed to take charge on a pop up near the third base line, which forced Wieters to make a difficult, and awkward, catch. It was good to see Bell take charge on a tough fly ball in foul ground not more than an inning or two later after the Wieters play -- Bell made the catch -- but he has to be more sure of himself. There's no reason for Bell to get called off by the catcher on just about any pop up around third base; it's one thing for him to struggle at the plate, but he can't bring that with him out onto the field.

Buck moves to 2-0; O's have a win streak!

What seemed like a laugher in the fourth inning didn't end as one. After a five-run fourth that gave the Orioles a commanding 9-1 lead, the Angels battled back with a five-run seventh that brought them within striking distance. Still, those nine runs ended up being enough as the O's bullpen bended but didn't break, allowing the O's to escape with a 9-7 win.

First, the positives: Brian Matusz had a great rebound outing, allowing one run on seven hits in six innings. He struck out three and didn't walk a batter -- something that he's done too much this season. He got the win, his first since July 4.

The O's offense was also fantastic, accumulating 14 hits (12 against starter Ervin Santana) and nine runs. Santana wasn't fooling O's hitters last night, and they knocked him out after just 3.2 innings. Adam Jones and Felix Pie each had three hits, and Ty Wigginton and Luke Scott each had two. Pie tripled in a run in the second, and Scott belted a two-run homer in the fourth. Brian Roberts had a hit and a walk, and Nick Markakis doubled. Josh Bell also singled in a run.

Unfortunately, after a 24-minute rain delay in the bottom of the sixth inning, the O's momentum was gone and the Angels started to chip away at the lead. Matt Albers relieved Matusz, and here's what happened: single, fly out, single, double, double. David Hernandez then relieved Albers after three runs had scored, but the Angels weren't done: double, single, foul out, wild pitch (run scored). With two more runs tacked on, Hernandez left the game with an ankle injury, and Koji Uehara entered the game. He allowed a walk and an infield single before finally getting a ground ball to second to end the threat.

The O's failed to tack on any runs in the bottom of the seventh, so they led 9-6 going into the eighth. Uehara must have felt more better out there, because he struck out the side. Still, the Angels weren't done. Alfredo Simon entered the game in the ninth inning, and things got interesting. Simon allowed two straight doubles, which cut the lead to two. Then for some reason, Torii Hunter, who hit the second double, tried to steal third and was thrown out by Matt Wieters. Hunter is a great player and has made many phenomenal plays in his career, but to me, this is a benchable offense. The Angels weren't down by just one run in that situation (not that a steal is justified in that situation either); they were still down by two. And there still weren't any outs! What was Hunter thinking? He was already in scoring position, and his run didn't even mean that much. His decision just didn't make sense, but I'm glad he tried to steal and gave the O's an easy out. With the pressure slightly off, Simon got two fly outs -- while giving up a single in between -- to earn the save. It wasn't pretty, but it worked.

Two other notes: First, Roberts left the game after the rain delay with a left shin contusion. He was hit with the ball when diving back to second base early in the game, but he remained in the game. My guess is that he's fine, even if he gets the day off today just as a precaution. Second, the loss moved the Angels to one game under .500 (54-55), which is rather significant because, according to Joe Angel on O's radio last night, this is the latest in the season the Angels have been under .500 in about a decade. Must be nice, Angels fans.

O's links: Roberts, Gonzalez, Jones's bubbles

After a 5-4 loss to the Rays yesterday, the Orioles are 30-64. But it's an exciting 30-64! OK, maybe not, but here are some links to keep you occupied:

• Brian Roberts could be back in an O's uniform as early as this weekend. [Orioles.com]
• Michael Gonzalez has been activated from the 60-day DL and will probably be eased back into the closer's role. [Baltimore Sun]
• Something about defending Adam Jones for chewing lots of gum and blowing bubbles during the game. Cowherd's right, it's not really a big deal. Granted, I don't listen to Baltimore sports radio talk or read many O's message boards, but I've never heard anyone complain about Jones's bubble blowing before. I've never even heard Jim Palmer criticize Jones for it. It's more of a, "Hey, Jones caught that ball and blew a bubble at the same time. That was pretty cool." [Kevin Cowherd]
• When Chris Tillman returns from Norfolk, he needs to attack the zone. [Dempsey's Army]
• It wouldn't make much sense to send Brian Matusz to the minors. [Camden Crazies]
• In Dave Cameron's annual Top 50 Trade Value series, two O's made the list: Matt Wieters at No. 33 and Brian Matusz at No. 44. No Julio Lugo for some reason. [FanGraphs]

O's lose again as Tillman can't get out of the third

Remember the O's four-game sweep of the Rangers last week that at least gave fans a faint hope that the team could play better baseball in the second half of the season? Yeah, that hasn't really happened yet.

In another hard-to-watch game, the Rays shelled Chris Tillman and blew the O's out 8-1. Tillman, like Brian Matusz the day before (1.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 H), wasn't effective at all. He gave up eight runs on seven hits in 2.2 innings, officially putting the game out of reach for the O's and their overmatched offense.

Since the All-Star break, the O's have lost all four of their games -- three to the Blue Jays, and now one to the Rays. In those games, the O's have scored just six runs, which is absolutely terrible. And not that it excuses the poor pitching performances from Matusz and Tillman, but it must be rather difficult to pitch when they're (possibly) thinking that giving up just a few runs will be insurmountable for the O's inept offense.

Speaking of offense, or the lack thereof, the O's had seven hits and one walk against Rays' starter Wade Davis, who gave up just one run in eight solid innings. The O's lone run came in the fifth inning when Cesar Izturis singled in Scott Moore. Izturis and Craig Tatum each had two hits.

By the way, the bullpen was actually very good yesterday. In 6.1 scoreless innings, Matt Albers, David Hernandez, Koji Uehara, and Alfredo Simon allowed just two hits while striking out seven Rays. Not bad, guys.

With the loss, the O's fall to 29-63 on the season.

Still, there is some good news. Luke Scott returned from the disabled list yesterday and went 1-4 with a single. And Brian Roberts is in Bowie for a rehab assignment and could be back with the O's in a few weeks. The return of Roberts to the leadoff spot would be big for the O's, who, despite the hot stretch by Corey Patterson before he got hurt, have really missed Roberts's ability to work the count, get on base, and be a nuisance on the basepaths. And although Felix Pie is talented and has improved at the plate, he is not a leadoff hitter; in the leadoff spot last night, Pie went 1-4 with a single, but he also saw just 10 pitches.

One other thing: It's time to end the Miguel Tejada experiment in Baltimore. I think Tejada is a nice guy. But not only is he playing below average defense at third base, he's adding very little offensive production to the lineup while batting second for most of the season. Sure, with injuries to guys like Roberts, Scott, and Matt Wieters, the options haven't really been there for the O's to move guys around to different spots. But Tejada, who is hitting .272/.311/.368 after an 0-4 last night, hasn't given the O's anything more than a singles hitter who doesn't get on base enough or hit for much power at all.

At 23 years old, Josh Bell might not be ready to play third base in a full-time role for the O's. And, who knows, he may never be that guy. In six games and 19 at-bats, he has five hits (all singles) but has struck out eight times. But if he's in Baltimore, he should be playing just about everyday instead of sitting the bench in favor of Tejada. The same can be said of the current platoon situation at second base between Julio Lugo and Scott Moore, though that probably doesn't matter as much with Roberts close to returning.

Basically, it comes down to this: No matter who the O's put in the lineup right now or bring up from the minors, they just aren't going to win this season or maybe even next season. So who would you rather watch while the team is bad, the current versions of Tejada and Lugo, or Bell and Moore? The answer should be pretty obvious.

Showalter expected to be named O's manager

According to Ed Price of AOL FanHouse (via HardballTalk), Buck Showalter will likely begin his tenure as the next O's manager this weekend.

Not knowing a whole lot about Showalter, I went to Baseball-Reference to hopefully get an idea about his previous coaching results. In head coaching stints with three teams -- the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and the Rangers -- Showalter has a career record of 882-833. He's also been named AL manager of the year twice: in 1994 with the Yankees and 2004 with the Rangers.

One of the strangest things about Showalter's managerial career -- and this is also mentioned on his Wikipedia page -- is that the Yankees (in 1996) and the Diamondbacks (in 2001) both won the World Series the year after he was fired. Showalter also very nearly was fired three times while still having winning records: 79-65 (1994), 85-77 (2000), and 80-82 (2006). Close, but no cigar.

Showalter is an interesting choice for the Orioles, and arguably his most important task will be to get more production out of the team's younger players. Highly regarded prospects like Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and others have shown promise and seemingly have the talent to produce at the Major League level, but they haven't been able to put all of the pieces together yet. Maybe Showalter, who himself moved up the coaching ranks in the minor leagues before becoming the head coach of the Yankees, will do a better job of helping them get to the next level.

By the way, in case you're wondering, Showalter is definitely an old-school type manager. Just check out this 1994 article in The New York Times about Showalter's criticism of that young hotshot Ken Griffey Jr.:

It's not Mariners versus Yankees in Seattle this weekend so much as Griffey versus Showalter, perhaps the game's premier player against one of its brightest young managers in a lively discourse on the merits of respecting the game.

"I shouldn't say this publicly," Showalter was quoted as saying in the magazine story, "but a guy like Ken Griffey Jr., the game's boring to him. He comes on the field, and his hat's on backward, and his shirttail's hanging out."

He also made pointed comments about San Francisco's Barry Bonds, saying that at last year's All-Star Game Bonds failed to tuck in his shirt until game time.

"To me, that's a lack of respect for the game," Showalter said. "Maybe I'm being too picky on these guys. I'm starting to say things like, 'Back when I played.' I thought I'd never say those words."

So even if Showalter can't get the O's to improve much on the field, at least fans won't have to worry about any untucked shirts or caps being worn backwards.

Orioles hold on to get first win of 2010

First off, great win for the O's last night. I didn't have the chance to watch the entire game, but I did make it home in time to watch the end of the game. It looked like Mike Gonzalez might blow another ninth inning lead, but to his credit, he got the job done. But more on the win in a minute.

Man, what an eventful three-game series for Carl Crawford. In the first game, he hit a walkoff double (even though it was really a single) to win the game for the Rays. In the second game of the series, Crawford was involved in a controversial strike-three/check swing call at home plate that led to a double play for the Orioles. The play ended up not mattering much as the Rays still won, but both Crawford and the crowd were not pleased with the home plate umpire.

And if that wasn't enough, Crawford was again right in the middle of another blown call last night (though it again didn't effect the outcome of the game). In the top of the eighth with one out, Matt Wieters hit a sinking line drive to left field. Crawford got a great jump on the ball and lunged forward, snagging the ball right before it hit the ground (view the play here). Watching the play quickly, it's easy to see why the second base umpire (Dana Demuth) thought Crawford trapped the ball against the turf. I'm not going to start rambling on about the use of instant replay only for home run calls, but eventually the use of instant replay needs to be expanded. Seriously, how long would it have taken to watch that video a few times to determine that Crawford did indeed catch the ball? One minute? Maybe two? Again, it was only a single, and the O's didn't score that inning. But isn't it important to get the call right?

Anyway, back to the game. Making his season debut, Brian Matusz had an up-and-down performance. In five innings, he allowed only two earned runs and two hits. But he walked five batters and threw 97 pitches. Then again, he also struck out seven. So, I guess you could say he was effectively wild, though it's never a good idea to average a walk per inning. Still, he admitted that he was a little nervous and noted that his mechanics were off because of it. Matusz did finish strong, striking out four of the last five batters he faced, including striking out the side in the bottom of the fifth.

After Matusz left the game trailing 2-1, the O's went on the attack and pieced together a four-run inning. Nick Markakis led off the inning with a single, and Miguel Tejada followed by getting hit by a pitch on an 0-2 count. Luke Scott then walked to load the bases. Next, Wieters hit a single to center, scoring Markakis, and Tejada scored after that on a wild pitch by reliever Grant Balfour. With runners on second and third, Nolan Reimold struck out swinging, but Garrett Atkins singled to hit, which allowed Scott and Wieters to score. Not a bad rally, and as it turns out, the O's would need all four of those runs.

With Matusz out, the bullpen did an adequate job -- Matt Albers gave up one run in two innings, Will Ohman retired the only batter he faced, Jim Johnson allowed one run in two-thirds of an inning, and Gonzalez pitched a scoreless ninth for the save even though he walked two batters and gave up a hit. It was a George Sherrill-type save for Gonzalez -- a roller-coaster ride to the very end -- but it worked. The only thing missing was a bunch of Orioles flipping up the brim of their hats after it was over.

On offense, the Orioles combined for nine hits and three walks. Brian Roberts, Wieters, and Atkins each went 2-4, with Roberts drawing a walk, Wieters driving in a run, and Atkins driving in two. Reimold scored the game's first run in the top of the third when he homered to left field (watch here). Markakis and Scott each had a hit and a walk. Adam Jones went 0-5 and was somewhat impatient, only seeing 13 pitches. Tejada (11 pitches) and Julio Lugo (13 pitches) were both 0-4, though, as mentioned before, Tejada did reach on a HBP.

For the third straight game, the Orioles didn't commit an error, but since I didn't watch the game, it's hard to tell if there were a few balls that O's fielders didn't get to that maybe they should have. Listening to the radio on the way home, I do remember a play from the bottom of the eighth on a Carlos Pena ground ball to second that could have been turned for a double play but wasn't because of a bobble or something. But B.J. Upton fouled out in the next at bat for the third out, so it didn't hurt the O's.

Overall, O's pitchers walked too many Rays batters (eight times), but they pitched out of jams and got the win. Hopefully they get the walks out of their system, and hopefully Wieters keeps going 2-4 every game. Not likely -- but hey, if anyone can do it, Wieters can.

Next game: O's home opener today against the Blue Jays, 3:05 p.m. Brad Bergesen vs. Brandon Morrow.

Five O's listed in top 50 AL prospect list

In many cases, MLB prospect rankings are similar to NFL and NBA mock drafts -- they have to be taken with a grain of salt. Obviously they shouldn't be taken as fact; however, people love lists and they're still interesting to look at.

With that being said, Marc Hulet of FanGraphs recently completed his project of ranking the top 10 prospects in every organization as well as going back and looking at draft picks from the last few years (in the first three rounds). According to Hulet, the enormous task took more than five months and 30,000 words, so I'd guess he has a decent idea of what he's talking about, to say the least.

On Friday, FanGraphs is going to post Hulet's top 100 MLB prospects list, but yesterday his top 50 American League prospects list was posted. Here's where O's prospects ranked on his list:

6. Brian Matusz
19. Josh Bell
36. Brandon Erbe
39. Jake Arrieta
42. Zach Britton

Not bad at all. The only real surprise is the high ranking of Erbe, who didn't make Baseball America's top 100 prospects list. But Erbe has a ton of potential and certainly has the talent to keep advancing through the O's farm system.

Anyway, go check out Hulet's complete list, and keep an eye out for his top 100 MLB prospects list on Friday.

Matusz solid in debut as O's win

Orioles' rookie left-hander Brian Matusz pitched five innings and gave up one run in his major league debut tonight as the O's beat the Detroit Tigers 8-2. In those five innings, Matusz walked three but struck out five as he kept the Tigers off balance. He wasn't particularly efficient -- he threw 99 pitches -- but 65 of them were for strikes, and he was still good enough to get his first win in his first game in an Orioles uniform.

Matusz received plenty of support from the O's offense, which knocked around Jarrod Washburn (5.1 IP, 6 ER) in his Tigers' debut. Nick Markakis and, surprisingly, Cesar Izturis, each had three hits, including a home run, and three runs batted in. Markakis's bomb to right-center, by the way, was estimated at 442 feet.

Chris Ray also had a strong performance, pitching two and two-thirds scoreless innings in relief of Matusz. Ray, who struck out two and walked one, lowered his ERA from 8.74 to 7.82 -- so at least that's something positive for Ray to build on.

Noteworthy batting numbers:

Since the all-star break ended, Nick Markakis is hitting .329/.372/.571 -- and that's not including tonight's three-hit performance. Brian Roberts is also on a post-all-star break tear, hitting .351/.407/.500 over that stretch. It's not surprising that the O's offense has started to heat up a bit with those two finding their offensive grooves.