With Lee on board, O's infield makeover is complete

When the Orioles signed Derrek Lee to a one-year deal worth about $8-$10 million, they fortified the right side of the infield (along with Brian Roberts) and completed an obvious offseason goal of improving the entire infield. Along with signing Lee, the O's traded for Mark Reynolds to fill the hole at third base, acquired shortstop J.J. Hardy from the Twins (and infielder Brendan Harris), and re-signed Cesar Izturis to fill a utility role.

With all of those guys on board, the O's will likely have an Opening Day infield that looks like this:

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Derrek Lee
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Mark Reynolds

Not too shabby. And when comparing that to last year's Opening Day infield arrangement, it looks even better:

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Garrett Atkins
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Cesar Izturis
3B: Miguel Tejada

2011's infield is clearly better, but let's examine the offensive abilities of the two (excluding Wieters and Roberts, since their presence doesn't change):

Player	2010 OBP	Career OBP	2010 SLG	Career SLG
Atkins	.276	.350	.286	.449
Izturis	.277	.296	.268	.323
Tejada	.312	.339	.381	.462

Player	2010 OBP	Career OBP	2010 SLG	Career SLG
Lee	.347	.367	.428	.498
Hardy	.320	.323	.394	.423
Reynolds	.320	.334	.433	.483

There is only one place where a player in the first table outperforms someone in the second table: Tejada's career on-base percentage is five points higher than Reynolds's OBP. That's it. Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds are clearly better offensively across the board, and they're all, at the very least, minor defensive upgrades at their respective positions as well. Also, Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds have an average age of 30, while Atkins, Izturis, and Tejada had an average age of about 31-32, so the O's got a little younger while also strengthening three positions.

It would be hard to classify any of the moves as long-term solutions, and Reynolds may end up as the only one still in Baltimore after the 2011 season. Still, the moves make the O's better, and because the O's don't have a bunch of infield prospects knocking on the door to the big leagues, they're not blocking any almost-ready minor leaguers either. It's hard to ask for more than that.

Atkins finally designated for assignment

Garrett Atkins has struggled mightily this season and hasn't given the Orioles much of anything. Because of his awful performance, most O's fans believed that his days in Baltimore were numbered and that he'd soon be removed. And earlier today it finally happened.

The O's designated Atkins for assignment and recalled Koji Uehara, who has been effective when healthy, though that hasn't been very often. Atkins's main problem was that he just didn't hit. (His first base defense was also pretty terrible, but that's not why he eventually started losing playing time as the season progressed.) In 152 plate appearances, Atkins hit .214/.276/.286 with one home run. He scored just five runs and knocked in only nine. Also, Atkins walked only 12 times (7.9 BB%) while striking out 30 times (21.4 K%).

In the offseason, the O's signed Atkins to a one-year, $4.5 million dollar deal with a 2011 club option for $8.5 million. Obviously since they just DFA'd him that option won't be picked up (even though there wasn't much of a chance of that happening anyway). Despite playing in only 44 games, Atkins had a WAR of -1.1. So not only did Atkins cost the team a few million that could have been spent on another useful player, but he played worse than simply a replacement-level player who could have been signed for cheap.

Then again, signing free agents is far from an exact science. O's fans should just be glad that they don't have to watch Atkins in an Orioles uniform anymore.

How bad has Atkins been?

If you're an O's fan, you've probably noticed that Garrett Atkins hasn't played since Wednesday. On the season, Atkins is hitting an abysmal .221/.261/.283 with no home runs. In 33 games played, he has six walks while striking out 24 times. Among all AL first basemen with at least 100 plate appearances, Atkins ranks last in on-base percentage, second-to-last in slugging percentage, last in OPS, and second-to-last in BB% (5.0%).

And Atkins hasn't been much better in the field either. According to FanGraphs, Atkins has played below-average defense at first base (-2.8 UZR). So bad hitting combined with bad defense makes for a pretty unproductive player, right? Well, yeah, of course.

Among all MLB first basemen with at least 100 plate appearances this season, Atkins has been the worst. He's the only first baseman with that many at bats without a home run. Also, his -0.9 WAR is the lowest behind Matt LaPorta (-0.5) and Jeff Clement (-0.5). At least LaPorta (25) and Clement (26) have an excuse: They're still relatively young. Atkins, however, is 30. And because of his overall bad play, he has been worth -$3.6 million.

So it's not exactly a shock to say that the Atkins signing hasn't worked out very well. But I'm not trying to pick on Atkins; his numbers have been declining for years now. Since 2006 when Atkins hit .329/.409/.556 with 29 home runs (easily his best offensive season), his power numbers have declined each season, as has his ability to get on base. Here are his OBPs after 2006 leading up to this season: .367, .328, and .308. And here are his slugging percentages: .486, .452, and .342. His isolated power (slugging percentage - batting average) has also dropped significantly, from .228 in 2006 to .116 in 2009.

So what happened? Did Atkins just have a few decent seasons and was never that great of a player? Did opposing pitchers eventually figure him out? Were his numbers inflated from playing in Colorado? It's probably a combination of all of those things, but at least one constant has been his decreasing level of discipline at the plate.

In 2006, Atkins swung at 61.7 percent of pitches inside the strike zone and just 14.7 percent of pitches outside of it. Here are his numbers for those two categories in the seasons after that, including his numbers so far in 2010:

2007: 64.8%, 18.7%
2008: 62.5%, 19.1%
2009: 58.5%, 18.0%
2010: 57.0%, 26.6%

So Atkins is swinging at fewer pitches in the zone while chasing more pitches outside of it: not exactly a recipe for success at the plate.

Mike Flanagan also mentioned something interesting on a MASN telecast the other night. He said that, in recent years, Atkins has simply been missing pitches to hit when getting ahead at the plate. So, for example, in 2-0 and 3-1 counts, Atkins isn't hitting fastballs around the middle of the plate, or, if he did hit them, he isn't driving the ball and is mainly hitting singles.

First, let's examine the situational stats, which are somewhat intriguing to look at even if they're not the most effective way of analyzing the case at hand. Here is how Atkins has hit in 2-0 and then 3-1 counts from 2006-2010:

Year	At bats	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR
2006	33	.424	.441	1.061	6
2007	32	.438	.424	.938	5
2008	32	.500	.500	.656	1
2009	14	.286	.286	.571	1
2010	6	.167	.167	.333	0

Year	At bats	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR
2006	17	.176	.641	.529	2
2007	22	.455	.735	.773	1
2008	27	.185	.439	.259	0
2009	9	.444	.773	1.000	1
2010	2	.000	.333	.000	0

The 2-0 count results are probably a bit more conclusive than the 3-1 results, if not only because there are more at bats. Atkins's power numbers certainly declined in 2-0 counts, but it's hard to tell much more than that, because there aren't a whole lot of at bats to look at.

Now, since that didn't prove much, let's focus on something else instead: fastballs. In hitter's counts, opposing pitchers throw lots of fastballs because, obviously, they don't want to give up walks. So being able to hit the fastball is rather important when a hitter is ahead in the count.

Again, using FanGraphs, Atkins absolutely destroyed fastballs in 2006 and was 35.7 runs above average when hitting those pitches -- which was good enough for sixth in the majors, behind Ryan Howard (55.4), David Ortiz (47.3), Manny Ramirez (40.4), Nick Johnson (37.4), and Albert Pujols (36.3). Some other names near the top of that list: Lance Berkman, Grady Sizemore, Jorge Posada, Jermaine Dye, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay, and Chase Utley. That's not a bad group of players to be listed with.

Unfortunately, Atkins never came close to hitting the fastball that well again. In 2007, he was 9.3 runs above average when hitting fastballs, but here are his numbers since then: 0.0, -3.0, and -4.5.

So it certainly seems like Flanagan was on to something when discussing Atkins's deficiencies at the plate. When getting ahead in the count, there's no question that Atkins hasn't been driving the ball. But he also doesn't get ahead in the count that often because he's chasing more pitches out of the zone, and whenever he is ahead in the count, or at any other time for that matter, he hasn't been hitting fastballs well enough.

Atkins seems like a nice guy, and it's a shame that his numbers have gone downhill at such a rapid pace. But with his current lack of offensive skills, Atkins is hurting the Orioles and probably shouldn't be on a major league roster -- and definitely not in any kind of full-time role.

Another poor offensive performance, another loss

The Orioles (1-6) wasted another decent start by Jeremy Guthrie -- seven innings pitched, eight hits, three earned runs -- and dropped their fourth game in a row (all at home) after a 5-1 loss to the Rays. Matt Garza threw eight strong innings, giving up only one run, and earned his second victory over the Orioles in this young season.

Garza allowed just six hits, with the O's lone run coming on a leadoff home run by Felix Pie. The Orioles had a couple of chances to score -- in the second and seventh innings -- but again couldn't put together another hit or two to put more runs on the scoreboard.

With the O's ahead 1-0 in the second, Matt Wieters led off with an infield single, and Luke Scott followed with a single of his own to right field. Unfortunately, Garrett Atkins came up next and hit a ground ball right to the shortstop for a double play. And in a sentence that will probably be repeated numerous times this season, Julio Lugo then struck out to end the threat.

In the seventh (the Orioles are trailing 3-1 at this point), with one out and Scott on first after a walk, Atkins hit a shot into the left center field gap, but the ball was caught on an outstanding running play by Carl Crawford. So with two outs, Ty Wigginton, pinch-hitting for Lugo, hit a flare to short right field that fell in for a single. With runners on first and second with two outs, Nolan Reimold was sent to the plate to pinch-hit for Cesar Izturis -- makes sense, right? Reimold, though, never got a chance to swing the bat -- on a ball in the dirt that got away from the catcher for a moment, Wigginton took off for second. There was just one problem: Scott stayed put. Wigginton was easily caught in a rundown, ending yet another scoring opportunity. Who does Wigginton think he is? Melvin Mora?

Pie, as stated before, led the O's offense attack with his solo home run. He also singled and walked. Jones, Wieters, Scott, and Wigginton each had a hit, and Scott and Wieters both drew walks. Nick Markakis went 0-3 and is now hitting .143, but he did walk again. And Miguel Tejada went 0-4 and saw just nine pitches in those at bats -- not exactly the kind of performance the O's are looking for from their cleanup hitter.

The Orioles have now scored just 20 runs in seven games. Get well soon, Brian Roberts.

By the way, if the team's recent play isn't bad enough, the 9,129 fans in attendance at Camden Yards tonight broke the "record" for the smallest crowd in the stadium's 19 seasons. Awesome.

O's get swept by Toronto, drop to 1-5 on the season

(Quick note: I went to Orioles games on Friday and Saturday, and both times during the O's ninth-inning comeback attempts, several fans were more interested in trying to start the wave than cheering on the team. Seriously, who tries to do the wave in the ninth inning?)

Well, that was unexpected. After a tough 7-6 loss in their home opener, the Orioles continued to struggle and their bats remained quiet on Saturday and Sunday as the Blue Jays completed a three-game sweep of the O's. On Saturday, the Blue Jays and starter Dana Eveland shut the O's out 3-0, and on Sunday, despite trailing most of the game 2-1, the Blue Jays scored four runs in the eighth and ninth innings in a 5-2 comeback victory.

Although Mike Gonzalez was the scapegoat for the first few games of the season (not that he's off the hook yet, by any means), the real culprit for the O's disappointing start is probably the team's offense, or lack thereof. Granted, that doesn't excuse Gonzalez's poor performance, and of course, barely a week has past in the MLB season, but the Orioles have not looked particularly good at the plate.

In six games, the O's are tied for the third-fewest runs scored with only 19. The O's also have the worst batting average with runners in scoring position (.167) and have scored just 14 runs in 54 at bats in those situations. I doubt that the offense will continue to struggle so much, but it doesn't help that Brian Roberts is possibly headed to the disabled list with an abdominal strain.

On the bright side, Matt Wieters is hitting .409/.458/.545. Eight of his nine hits have been singles (the other a homer), but he's been the best O's hitter so far. Garrett Atkins (.350/.350/.500) has had a decent start to the season, though he hasn't yet drawn a walk. Nick Markakis is hitting just .167 at the moment, but he has the team's second-highest on-base percentage (.444) mainly because he's been patient at the plate and has drawn a team-high nine walks (tied with Adam Dunn for the most in the majors).

Miguel Tejada (.240/.296/.400), Nolan Reimold (.200/.294/.467), Adam Jones (.231/.259/.462), and Luke Scott (.167/.250/.389) have all struggled and are not getting on base enough. Those four have each hit a home run, but they've drawn only four combined walks. With Roberts out, those guys need to step up and play better.

I'd ramble a little more and complain about the team's 1-5 record, but again, they've only played six games and hopefully will turn things around. If the O's continue to receive decent starting pitcher performances, they should start to win more games as the offense scores more runs and takes advantage of scoring opportunities.

Next game: An early season rematch tonight at 7:05 against the Rays as Jeremy Guthrie faces Matt Garza again. Last time, Garza pitched a phenomenal game, throwing eight strong innings and allowing only one earned run.

Orioles hold on to get first win of 2010

First off, great win for the O's last night. I didn't have the chance to watch the entire game, but I did make it home in time to watch the end of the game. It looked like Mike Gonzalez might blow another ninth inning lead, but to his credit, he got the job done. But more on the win in a minute.

Man, what an eventful three-game series for Carl Crawford. In the first game, he hit a walkoff double (even though it was really a single) to win the game for the Rays. In the second game of the series, Crawford was involved in a controversial strike-three/check swing call at home plate that led to a double play for the Orioles. The play ended up not mattering much as the Rays still won, but both Crawford and the crowd were not pleased with the home plate umpire.

And if that wasn't enough, Crawford was again right in the middle of another blown call last night (though it again didn't effect the outcome of the game). In the top of the eighth with one out, Matt Wieters hit a sinking line drive to left field. Crawford got a great jump on the ball and lunged forward, snagging the ball right before it hit the ground (view the play here). Watching the play quickly, it's easy to see why the second base umpire (Dana Demuth) thought Crawford trapped the ball against the turf. I'm not going to start rambling on about the use of instant replay only for home run calls, but eventually the use of instant replay needs to be expanded. Seriously, how long would it have taken to watch that video a few times to determine that Crawford did indeed catch the ball? One minute? Maybe two? Again, it was only a single, and the O's didn't score that inning. But isn't it important to get the call right?

Anyway, back to the game. Making his season debut, Brian Matusz had an up-and-down performance. In five innings, he allowed only two earned runs and two hits. But he walked five batters and threw 97 pitches. Then again, he also struck out seven. So, I guess you could say he was effectively wild, though it's never a good idea to average a walk per inning. Still, he admitted that he was a little nervous and noted that his mechanics were off because of it. Matusz did finish strong, striking out four of the last five batters he faced, including striking out the side in the bottom of the fifth.

After Matusz left the game trailing 2-1, the O's went on the attack and pieced together a four-run inning. Nick Markakis led off the inning with a single, and Miguel Tejada followed by getting hit by a pitch on an 0-2 count. Luke Scott then walked to load the bases. Next, Wieters hit a single to center, scoring Markakis, and Tejada scored after that on a wild pitch by reliever Grant Balfour. With runners on second and third, Nolan Reimold struck out swinging, but Garrett Atkins singled to hit, which allowed Scott and Wieters to score. Not a bad rally, and as it turns out, the O's would need all four of those runs.

With Matusz out, the bullpen did an adequate job -- Matt Albers gave up one run in two innings, Will Ohman retired the only batter he faced, Jim Johnson allowed one run in two-thirds of an inning, and Gonzalez pitched a scoreless ninth for the save even though he walked two batters and gave up a hit. It was a George Sherrill-type save for Gonzalez -- a roller-coaster ride to the very end -- but it worked. The only thing missing was a bunch of Orioles flipping up the brim of their hats after it was over.

On offense, the Orioles combined for nine hits and three walks. Brian Roberts, Wieters, and Atkins each went 2-4, with Roberts drawing a walk, Wieters driving in a run, and Atkins driving in two. Reimold scored the game's first run in the top of the third when he homered to left field (watch here). Markakis and Scott each had a hit and a walk. Adam Jones went 0-5 and was somewhat impatient, only seeing 13 pitches. Tejada (11 pitches) and Julio Lugo (13 pitches) were both 0-4, though, as mentioned before, Tejada did reach on a HBP.

For the third straight game, the Orioles didn't commit an error, but since I didn't watch the game, it's hard to tell if there were a few balls that O's fielders didn't get to that maybe they should have. Listening to the radio on the way home, I do remember a play from the bottom of the eighth on a Carlos Pena ground ball to second that could have been turned for a double play but wasn't because of a bobble or something. But B.J. Upton fouled out in the next at bat for the third out, so it didn't hurt the O's.

Overall, O's pitchers walked too many Rays batters (eight times), but they pitched out of jams and got the win. Hopefully they get the walks out of their system, and hopefully Wieters keeps going 2-4 every game. Not likely -- but hey, if anyone can do it, Wieters can.

Next game: O's home opener today against the Blue Jays, 3:05 p.m. Brad Bergesen vs. Brandon Morrow.

O's drop to 0-2 as late rally falls short

Another game, another 4-3 loss to the Rays. This time, though, it was the Orioles who rallied in the ninth -- scoring a run on a Garrett Atkins ground rule double to cut the lead to 4-3 -- but Brian Roberts flied out to center field with two outs and Felix Pie, the tying run, on third base.

As if the Orioles needed another lesson in how important it is to add to a lead late in a game, the Rays, and particularly Evan Longoria, demonstrated that perfectly when Longoria homered in the bottom of the eighth to give the Rays a two-run lead (4-2). That run proved to be the difference as closer Rafael Soriano again had an adventurous ninth inning (two hits, one earned run).

However, the story of the game was the tremendous start by Matt Garza. Garza threw 114 pitches in eight strong innings, allowing just four hits and one earned run while striking out nine and walking only two. Garza's most effective pitch last night was his overpowering fastball, but he also efficiently mixed several sliders and curveballs into his attack to keep O's batters off balance.

For the second straight game, Rays pitchers held Roberts (0-5) hitless, demonstrating that one of the best ways to prevent the Orioles from scoring a bunch of runs is to keep Roberts from getting on base -- no easy task. After battling back from a back injury and a stomach illness, Roberts predictably looks a little rusty and will probably need a few games to get back in the swing of things (sorry for the pun).

O's hitters collected just six hits and two walks and left seven runners on base. Matt Wieters had the only multi-hit game for the O's, going 2-4 with two singles. Wieters also reached on an error in the first inning that allowed Nick Markakis to score all the way from second. The other hits -- all singles besides Atkins's double in the ninth -- belonged to Adam Jones (1-4), Miguel Tejada (1-3, one RBI, one HBP), and Nolan Reimold (1-4). Luke Scott seemed to struggle the most at the plate against Garza, going 0-4 and striking out three times.

In terms of pitching and defense, the O's were pretty solid again. Jeremy Guthrie gave up three earned runs in 6.1 innings, striking out six and walking two. Similar to Kevin Millwood's first start, Guthrie cruised in the first few innings and started to struggle around the fourth and fifth. Will Ohman was effective for the second straight game, retiring all three batters he faced. However, Cla Meredith, who relieved Ohman, gave up the eventual deciding run when he allowed Longoria's solo home run in the eighth. The O's also didn't make any errors and turned two double plays (more on one of them in a second).

This game was well-played for the most part, but it had a couple of moments that reminded me of the O's from last season. In the bottom of the fifth, on a Carl Crawford ground ball to first, Atkins fielded the ball and then oddly enough ran into Guthrie, who was trying to cover first on the play. Fortunately for the O's, Crawford overran the base, allowing Atkins the chance to flip the ball to Roberts for the out. That play wasn't really anyone's fault, but it's easy to see why Atkins isn't necessarily a natural at first base.

Another odd play took place in the bottom of the seventh and again involved Crawford. With a 3-2 count, Crawford appeared to check his swing at a ball low and away and headed down to first base. Home plate umpire Kerwin Danley was convinced that Crawford swung at the ball -- replays showed he clearly did not -- and called him out instead of motioning to the third base umpire for help. But that wasn't all; Reid Brignac, who was on first at the time after a single, figured that Crawford had walked and started to go down to second base. Wieters, who obviously was paying attention since he was in the middle of the action, fired the ball down to second for the double play. Crawford, who still didn't know what had really happened and was basically to first base at this point, proceeded to throw a mini-temper tantrum and actually threw his helmet, yet he was able to stay in the game. Maybe Danley realized he had made an awful call and decided not to make the situation any worse by throwing Crawford out of the game. Rays fans, obviously more than a little unhappy with the call and ensuing double play, decided to boo Danley for the rest of the game, which was funny for a few minutes but got old fast. Now if that's not Orioles baseball, I don't know what is.

The O's fell to 0-2 with the loss but shouldn't feel too bad about themselves since they've been close to wins in both games. The O's can salvage the series a bit with a win tonight when Brian Matusz faces Jeff Niemann.