What they're saying about the Uehara trade

Yesterday, the Orioles made two trades. First, they sent Koji Uehara to the Rangers in exchange for corner infielder Chris Davis and pitcher Tommy Hunter. The O's also sent $2 million to the Rangers in the deal. Second, the O's then shipped Derrek Lee and some cash to the Pirates for prospect Aaron Baker, a Single-A first baseman. Baker is not viewed as a top prospect.

The Lee deal was made to free up playing time for the newly acquired Davis. The O's possibly saved some money on the rest of Lee's deal, but it also hasn't been reported how much cash they're sending to the Pirates. Still, it's a minor move that was a no-brainer.

The Uehara trade, though, is more important. Here's what others are saying about it:

- "Both Hunter and Davis are under team control for a long time. Uehara has a vesting option for 2012, worth $4 million with additional bonuses. This looks like a good longer-term gamble for the Orioles, while the Rangers land immediate help in exchange for two guys who probably weren't in their future plans." Jeff Sullivan, Baseball Nation

- "Davis has more upside, but is less likely to reach it. Really, he should spell his name with a ‘K,’ because his career strikeout rate (31.7%) would rank among the league leaders every year if he qualified for the batting title. He’s been trying to cut down that number with limited success, but really he should be focusing on his walk rate. Players like Russell Branyan have shown us that a bad strikeout rate, paired with a strong walk rate and gobs of power, can make for a useful (if winding) major league career. At this point, he’s a flier taken by a team looking to acquire young talent." Eno Sarris, FanGraphs

- "Moving to the Orioles, Davis might have another shot of realizing those big league dreams. Derrek Lee(notes) has been traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates. And manager Buck Showalter probably has some familiarity with Davis, having been the Rangers' skipper when Davis was drafted in 2006.
The Orioles also get some help for their starting rotation in Hunter. While he didn't start any games this year for the Rangers, largely due to a groin injury he suffered in the spring, Hunter did make 41 starts over the previous two seasons. Baltimore may also like a groundball pitcher who relies on control working in a hitters' park like Camden Yards." Ian Casselberry, Big League Stew

- "Edged out for playing time in Texas by the more consistent Mitch Moreland, Davis has mashed this season in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, batting .368/.405/.824 with 24 home runs in just 193 at-bats. (He hit .327 in the PCL last year to finish second in the batting race.) Still, Davis lacks plate discipline and figures to remain a streaky hitter prone to slumps and short bursts where he's a force—in other words, a lefthanded-hitting Mark Reynolds. . . . The Rangers used Davis' third and final minor league option to send him to Round Rock this season, so the Orioles will have to keep him in the big leagues in 2012 or risk losing him on waivers." John Manuel and Matt Eddy, Baseball America

However, leave it to Keith Law to provide the snarky take on the O's haul:

Playing with Tinkertoys? RT @drtomfowler: @keithlaw If MacPhail calls Davis & Hunter building blocks, what is he building?Sun Jul 31 04:04:49 via Seesmickeithlaw
keithlaw

Most people seem to think the deal was a win-win for both teams. I rather would have had Andy MacPhail target some actual prospects, but it's hard to argue his logic in making this trade. As long as the O's play Davis consistently, they should be able to figure out whether he's competent enough to stick in the majors or if he's, in fact, a 4-A player. Hunter should have no problem sticking in the O's rotation, especially considering how awful the O's young pitchers look. Also, both players are 25 and have several years of team control left between them.

It's not clear whether or not Mark Reynolds will stay at third or move across the diamond to first. Honestly, I'd like to see them put Davis at first and let Josh Bell (no superior defender either) man third, while letting Reynolds serve as the designated hitter. But with Vladimir Guerrero on the roster, there's basically no chance of that. Bell will likely be sent back to Triple-A Norfolk, which is a shame. Considering Lee's little trade value, Guerrero probably has even less since he's exclusively a DH at this point. At least Lee can play a decent first base.

The Baseball America writers (link above) also commented on Davis's defense: "He has improved defensively at third base and can play either infield corner but is better suited defensively to first, despite good arm strength. Scouting reports on him at third base regularly include the word 'adequate.'" An adequate defender would be leaps and bounds above what Reynolds has done at third base this season. But again, with Guerrero on the roster, either Davis or Reynolds will play third.

It's been clear for weeks/months that the O's are terrible and need to start freeing up positions and playing time for some of their younger players (even though there don't appear to be many talented ones). Lee was one of the players that needed to be moved, and that has been taken care of. Vlad needs to be the next.

As far as Uehara's departure goes, he'll clearly be missed by O's fans. For a team that both struggles to sign free agents and doesn't do a good job scouting and signing international talent, the O's did a fantastic job in both when they signed Uehara, the O's first Japanese player, in 2009 to a two-year, $10 million deal. Uehara was originally a starter, but he had trouble staying healthy and pitching late into games. He was still pretty effective as a starter, but he'd get tired by the fifth inning and have to be replaced.

The O's eventually moved Uehara to the bullpen, where he quickly thrived and became one of the team's best options. He was re-signed in the 2011 offseason and was having another fantastic season this year before being shipped to Texas.

As long as he can deal with the Texas heat, Uehara should be just as effective for the Rangers as he was in Baltimore. There's not a whole lot to get excited about as an O's fan, but watching Uehara work quickly and pound the strike zone was certainly a refreshing sight.

Injury talk coming early for O's

Over the course of an 162-game schedule, players are going to get injured; there's no way around that. But in early March, the Orioles are already dealing with nagging injuries to both players on the right side of their infield. According to Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun, Brian Roberts and Derrek Lee, both crucial to the upcoming season, are trying to overcome some spring training pain. He continued:

The timetable for Derrek Lee's exhibition debut has been pushed back a couple of times, and Showalter revealed on Tuesday that the club was sending its new first baseman to a specialist to look at his sore right wrist.

Then came the news that Roberts was held out of Tuesday's workout back in Sarasota because of a back spasm, which is sure to send a chill down the spine of everyone who saw how his absence impacted the Orioles' offense last season.

Roberts has been dealing with a couple different injuries, including pain in his back and neck. Considering he missed a significant amount of time in 2010 from an assortment of injuries -- an abdominal strain, a hip strain, a knee contusion, and a concussion -- it's hard not to be at least a little concerned that Roberts might have a hard time staying healthy not only in 2011, but for the rest of his career.

Lee, meanwhile, played through immense hand/thumb pain last season, and he's currently dealing with a sore right wrist. It's not likely that he'll need surgery, but it's also possible that he may be dealing with some pain or discomfort for a majority of the upcoming season. That doesn't bode well for his chances of having a much-improved season at the plate.

If Lee and Roberts were younger players, the outlook on their recoveries would be a little brighter. But Lee is 35 and Roberts is 33. For argument's sake, Roberts's absence would be the biggest of the two. The O's played without Roberts for much of last season, and the offense struggled mightily without him. If Lee missed time, the O's would probably move Luke Scott to first base and hope that his defense wouldn't be terrible. Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie would then split time in left field. The O's could deal with that situation -- maybe not for the entire season, but for a considerable chunk of time, sure. But if Roberts were to miss time, Cesar Izturis would likely man second base. Defensively, that would be OK (though Izturis hasn't played second for a while), but offensively, the loss of Roberts would again prove to be enormous.

It might be a little early for this kind of worrying, so don't hit the panic button just yet. But don't expect these types of injury concerns to just disappear overnight.

Injury information found using the handy Baseball Injury Tool

Guerrero, O's still talking

Vladimir Guerrero doesn't exactly have a ton of options left in terms of suitors, so with the Orioles apparently interested in his services, he's listening. And that's what ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting -- that Guerrero and the O's are "making progress in their talks for a 2011 contract."

The O's have already made a few moves this offseason to upgrade the team's lineup (particularly the infield), such as trading for third baseman Mark Reynolds, dealing for shortstop J.J. Hardy, and signing first baseman Derrek Lee. However, Andy MacPhail doesn't appear to be done trying to fix the team's offense and may want Guerrero to be the team's designated hitter. If that happens, Luke Scott would likely see more time in left field since the O's need to keep his bat in the lineup. And that would be bad news for both Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold, who currently seem headed for a time-share role in left field. If Guerrero ends up in Baltimore, the O's could trade one, or both, for pitching depth.

Guerrero is 35, can only DH at this point in his career, and isn't likely to keep posting solid offensive numbers. (Not that a one-year deal is that big of a risk, obviously.) Meanwhile, Reimold is 27 and Pie is 25. Are the O's against giving those two a chance to see what they can do in a split-duty role, or is the team basically convinced at this point of what type of player each guy is?

It's not like the O's will have to break the bank for Guerrero -- they can probably sign him for a few million bucks. But if they do bring him to Baltimore, that may shut the door on the possibility of Reimold or Pie sticking around much longer (unless they both end up as bench guys, which doesn't seem likely).

Gregg joins O's bullpen

On the heels of signing Derrek Lee, the Orioles have agreed to terms with reliever Kevin Gregg on a two-year deal. According to Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun (via Orioles Insider), Gregg's deal is worth $10 million and "also includes a club option for 2013 that could vest if Gregg is able to finish a certain number of games during the 2012 season."

Although signing Gregg makes more sense than a Type A free agent like Grant Balfour -- Gregg has Type B status, meaning the O's don't have to surrender a draft pick -- the move continues a puzzling trend of giving mediocre relievers multi-year contracts. Just last year the O's gave Mike Gonzalez a two-year, $12 million deal; even worse, he was a Type A free agent. Gonzalez seemed to right the ship as the 2010 season went along and he got healthier, but there's no chance that he lives up to his contract. The same can probably be said of Gregg.

Doesn't the O's front office remember what happened in the winter of 2006? Sure, Andy MacPhail wasn't with the O's yet and some, if not most, of the front office personnel is different now, but the valuable lesson(s) learned from that disastrous offseason should not be forgotten. That offseason, Mike Flanagan and Jim Duquette handed out a combined $41.5 million to Danys Baez (three years, $19 million), Chad Bradford (three years, $10.5 million), and Jamie Walker (three years, $12 million). According to FanGraphs, here's the total wins above replacement each was worth in his time in Baltimore:

Baez: -0.4 WAR (2007: -0.8 WAR; 2009: 0.4 WAR; missed 2008 with injury)
Bradford: 1.6 WAR (1.3 WAR in 2007; 0.6 combined WAR in 2008 with O's and Rays, after a trade)
Walker: -0.5 WAR (2007: 0.7 WAR; 2008: -0.9 WAR; 2009: -0.3 WAR)

For all of that money handed out to hopefully shore up the bullpen, the O's received a combined 0.7 WAR -- not even a full win. The Baez-Bradford-Walker debacle should have taught the O's how not to build a bullpen. Granted, the Gonzalez and Gregg deals are not three-year deals and may not hamstring the O's much from making other moves, if necessary, but it's hard to understand why they'd want to overpay relievers when guys like George Sherrill, Mark Hendrickson, and Will Ohman have been at least relatively effective, cheap bullpen additions in the past couple years. Maybe it's because MacPhail values closing experience and doesn't mind targeting relievers who have piled up saves in the past. Gonzalez had 54 career saves before coming to Baltimore; Gregg has 122. (For what it's worth, Koji Uehara received a two-year, $10 million deal before the 2009 season, but he was signed to be a starter and did start before eventually moving to the bullpen amid injury concerns. He's also been effective in Baltimore, posting a 1.7 WAR in 2009 and a 1.4 WAR in 2010.)

Dave Cameron said it best in a December 2010 post, "Relievers Are Not Worth Multi-Year Deals" (which is certainly worth reading). I don't think MacPhail and the O's have learned that lesson quite yet, but at least they haven't started handing out three-year deals to relievers again.

With Lee on board, O's infield makeover is complete

When the Orioles signed Derrek Lee to a one-year deal worth about $8-$10 million, they fortified the right side of the infield (along with Brian Roberts) and completed an obvious offseason goal of improving the entire infield. Along with signing Lee, the O's traded for Mark Reynolds to fill the hole at third base, acquired shortstop J.J. Hardy from the Twins (and infielder Brendan Harris), and re-signed Cesar Izturis to fill a utility role.

With all of those guys on board, the O's will likely have an Opening Day infield that looks like this:

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Derrek Lee
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Mark Reynolds

Not too shabby. And when comparing that to last year's Opening Day infield arrangement, it looks even better:

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Garrett Atkins
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Cesar Izturis
3B: Miguel Tejada

2011's infield is clearly better, but let's examine the offensive abilities of the two (excluding Wieters and Roberts, since their presence doesn't change):

Player	2010 OBP	Career OBP	2010 SLG	Career SLG
Atkins	.276	.350	.286	.449
Izturis	.277	.296	.268	.323
Tejada	.312	.339	.381	.462

Player	2010 OBP	Career OBP	2010 SLG	Career SLG
Lee	.347	.367	.428	.498
Hardy	.320	.323	.394	.423
Reynolds	.320	.334	.433	.483

There is only one place where a player in the first table outperforms someone in the second table: Tejada's career on-base percentage is five points higher than Reynolds's OBP. That's it. Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds are clearly better offensively across the board, and they're all, at the very least, minor defensive upgrades at their respective positions as well. Also, Lee, Hardy, and Reynolds have an average age of 30, while Atkins, Izturis, and Tejada had an average age of about 31-32, so the O's got a little younger while also strengthening three positions.

It would be hard to classify any of the moves as long-term solutions, and Reynolds may end up as the only one still in Baltimore after the 2011 season. Still, the moves make the O's better, and because the O's don't have a bunch of infield prospects knocking on the door to the big leagues, they're not blocking any almost-ready minor leaguers either. It's hard to ask for more than that.

O's still weighing first base options

Even though it's old news at this point, the Orioles still haven't been able to sign a first baseman. Ken Rosenthal weighed in on the matter yesterday, saying the O's would rather sign Derrek Lee than Adam LaRoche, mainly because LaRoche covets a three-year deal. Apparently the O's don't want to commit to LaRoche for three years, which is great to hear.

Rosenthal also mentions a popular suggestion/fall-back plan for the O's -- playing Luke Scott at first and signing a DH instead -- but he notes that Andy MacPhail and Co. "prefer a stronger defensive alignment." That doesn't sound like they have a whole lot of confidence in Scott's defensive skills at first base.

I have a feeling that Lee is going to sign before LaRoche, but it has to be tough to choose between the O's and Nationals (and maybe the Padres). Hopefully something happens soon.

Why the O's don't have to overpay for a first baseman

Let's take a look at three players' career stats:

Player A: .271/.339/.488, .351 wOBA
Player B: .282/.367/.498, .371 wOBA
Player C: .268/.354/.503, .365 wOBA

Player A doesn't get on base as much as the other two and also hits for slightly less power. Player B and Player C are pretty close, with B getting on base more and C hitting for a bit more power. Again, this comparison is just based on hitting and doesn't bring in other factors like age, fielding, etc., but if you had to choose, it would likely be in this order: B, then C, then A.

Player A is Adam LaRoche, Player B is Derrek Lee, and Player C is Luke Scott. In terms of overall production (not just hitting), they're not all on equal footing. Scott hasn't played much first base in his career and has played more left field and DH. Lee and LaRoche, meanwhile, are both exclusively first basemen. Also, Scott is 32, LaRoche is 31, and Lee is 35.

Now, obviously, the reasons why the Orioles are in the running for a first baseman are: 1) the Garrett Atkins experiment worked out horribly last season; 2) they don't really have any young first base prospects (outside of maybe Nolan Reimold, though he's never played the position at the major league level) who can fill the role; and 3) they're looking for an upgrade at the position, even if it's just for a year or two. And, really, if the O's end up signing Lee or LaRoche to a one-year deal, that's fine. But if they really did extend a three-year deal to LaRoche or are even considering it, I do have a problem with that. Lee is apparently seeking a one-year deal, which seems reasonable even if that deal ends up costing $7-$8 million -- something in that range. But what puts LaRoche in the three-year range? He's definitely an improvement over who the O's have had at first base the last few seasons, but that doesn't mean the O's should overpay for a non-elite first baseman who's already in his 30s. It would be hard to classify that type of signing as anything other than a desperate move.

Last season, Lee (2.1) and LaRoche (2.0) ranked 15th and 16th, respectively, out of all first basemen in WAR. (Ty Wigginton (0.3) ranked 22nd.) Picking either one up would make the O's better, sure, but it's not like it would greatly transform the team. Is it really worth it to sign someone like LaRoche to a multi-year deal just to gain possibly a couple of wins? Maybe, maybe not, though I'd vote no.

Buck Showalter has apparently made it known that he'd like to have a proven first baseman manning that position this year. That would mean that he'd welcome Lee or LaRoche to Baltimore -- as most fans would -- with open arms. I'm for that move, too, as long as the price is right. Why should the O's overpay when the only other two teams that seemingly are in the running are the Nationals and Padres? Baltimore and Washington seem like the two likely landing spots for Lee and LaRoche, not just because they may have the biggest needs at the position, but because they can probably spend a little more than San Diego.

At the trade deadline last year, the O's made the curious decision to not trade either Wigginton or Scott. Scott is still in Baltimore, but Wigginton bolted for Colorado. With Scott still around, the O's do have someone who can fill in at the position, if necessary. In his career, Scott has only played a total of 29 games at first, so it's not like he's completely comfortable playing the position. However, his hitting would likely make up for some subpar fielding, if he's able to improve enough to get to that level in the field.

Playing Scott at first isn't an ideal fall-back plan, but it does give the O's at least an option to go with if Lee or LaRoche decide to sign elsewhere. Signing a DH like Jim Thome or Vladimir Guerrero may even be better for the team offensively, though playing Scott at first would be a defensive risk.

So, basically, if the O's don't sign Lee or LaRoche, it may hurt the team a little, but probably not a whole lot. Remember, we're talking about a 35-year-old Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche. It's not the end of the world if the O's don't meet either player's contract demands.

O's make offer to LaRoche

According to Drew Silva of Hardball Talk, via Jen Royle of MASN, the Orioles have offered Adam LaRoche a three-year deal between $16-$18 million.

LaRoche, 31, would give the O's the power-hitting first baseman they've been seeking. In seven seasons, LaRoche has hit .271/.339/.488 with 161 home runs.

The O's have also been pursuing first baseman Derrek Lee. If LaRoche doesn't sign with the O's and Lee is still available for some reason, he would make a lot of sense for the O's as well. More to come.