MacPhail steps down, so what now?

The Orioles have announced that Andy MacPhail is leaving the organization and that he will not return as president of baseball operations. It was speculated for months that MacPhail would not return, and now it's official. Another popular rumor was that Buck Showalter would leave his managerial position to take over for MacPhail either as general manager or in another front office role, but Showalter will still be the team's manager next season.

According to Roch Kubatko, here are some candidates to replace MacPhail:

It's impossible to know every name that's been discussed and debated. I've floated a few, such as Marlins assistant general manager Dan Jennings and Blue Jays assistant general manager Tony LaCava.

The Sun's Dan Connolly recently expanded the list to include Jerry Dipoto (Diamondbacks senior VP), Gerry Hunsicker (Rays senior VP), former Orioles executives Wayne Krivsky and Scott Proefrock (Phillies assistant GM), Damon Oppenheimer (Yankees scouting director), A.J. Preller (Rangers senior director of player personnel), former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi (Mets special assistant) and Scott Servais (Rangers senior director of player development.)

. . . Also, director of baseball operations Matt Klentak is regarded as an executive who will be a valuable asset to MacPhail's replacement. He's not currently seen as a candidate for the position, but his time is approaching.

MacPhail had his moments, but in the end he couldn't do enough to turn the organization around. The next GM (or president of baseball operations) will need to identify what the organization has done wrong when drafting, developing, and coaching minor league talent. The O's are in an extremely difficult position in the AL East and have to play tough competition year in and year out, but they also don't do themselves any favors by not developing a better group of young players, both through the draft and international scouting. Hopefully the next GM has some ideas on how to rectify those problems.

It's also worth wondering how much power the team's next GM will have. With Showalter still around, will he be the guy wielding the most power? Peter Schmuck thinks so:

There are all sorts of possibilities, but since both Angelos and Showalter are old-school personalities, it's fair to assume they won't be writing the script for the "Moneyball" sequel. If Showalter does not change his mind and unexpectedly jump upstairs, the next GM — or president of baseball operations — will likely be someone with whom he shares some history and someone who will fit into the Angelos comfort zone.

In other words, it will likely be an established fellow with some front office political skills and player-development experience rather than some twentysomething Ivy Leaguer carrying a spreadsheet and a cup of Starbucks into every meeting.

Again, that's all Schmuck's speculation, but it's possible considering how well Angelos and Showalter seem to get along. With Showalter likely to stick around next season and beyond, the O's aren't going to bring in someone that he won't be able to work with. Still, I'd like for the O's to be flexible and hire the best person for the position, not the guy most willing to agree with all of Showalter's opinions.

I like Showalter -- maybe not as much as when he first joined the O's -- but I'm not quite sure I want him to be the guy calling most of the shots for the organization. Still, Showalter does seem interested in the organization's young talent, and if he's committed to figuring out why most of the team's top prospects seem to fail when they join the major league club, then I guess it's fine if he needs to co-sign on whoever replaces MacPhail.

Facing important decisions, O's moving slowly

I've had a couple of people ask me what I think the Orioles will do this offseason, and I honestly have no idea. They could go big and sign a few free agents, they could add a couple of pitchers and a hitter or two, or maybe they will target a few low-priced, underappreciated players and hope they outperform expectations. But, really, the first step to the O's making any of those decisions is figuring out who the guy calling the shots is going to be, and there still seems to be some confusion over whether Andy MacPhail is going to return or if Buck Showalter will leave the dugout to take a front office position.

Like the rest of us, Peter Schmuck continues to wait:

Until there is a detemination on both fronts, it's hard to do more than speculate about the eventual composition and hierarchy in the Warehouse. MacPhail had given every indication that he would not remain after his contract expires at the end of this month, but the fact that he and the club have not made a quick announcement clearly indicates that Angelos wants him to stay connected to the club in some capacity. If he does, then it seems more likely that Showalter will remain in the dugout.

I like MacPhail and Showalter, but I'm not quite sure if I want either of them as the team's general manager (or president of baseball operations, or whatever). In MacPhail's case, I think he's done a decent job in his O's tenure, but I don't think he's taken enough chances. He's made a few solid trades, but there have also been some signings (Michael Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, and Vladimir Guerrero to name a few) that didn't make much sense and didn't have much of a chance of working out.

This decision is extremely important, mostly because the O's are faced with the difficult task of finding out exactly why so many of their top minor league players keep failing at the major league level. Matt Wieters and Zach Britton may have turned the corner, but what about Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Josh Bell, and Nolan Reimold? And those are just some names from the last few years; there have been dozens of talented players to come through the O's farm system who haven't gotten the job done. Is it a scouting thing? A coaching thing? It's probably a combination of both, but whatever the issue is, the O's need to eventually sort it out.

If the O's are ever going to be competitive again in the AL East, they'll need lots of contributions from their farm system, particularly their top prospects. Someone from outside the organization may view the team's problems differently than MacPhail or Showalter, but he'd also have to deal with Peter Angelos. And that's certainly no easy task.

The Orioles are not like the Astros

Earlier today on ESPN's SweetSpot blog, Austin Swafford (of Astros 290) wrote that the Orioles are headed down a dangerous road -- similar to one the Astros have taken the last few years. In the piece, Swafford argued that the O's didn't need to make many of their offseason moves because the O's are not "a few overpriced veterans away from going to the World Series."

Here's more of what he had to say:

There's certainly nothing wrong with trying to win right now if you have the right parts. But I have thought about the lesson that could be learned from the Astros as I have watched the Orioles since the end of last season. They closed 2010 on a good note. They hired Buck Showalter and, with him at the helm, went 34-23 to end the year.

So, naturally, they looked around at their very talented division and said, "No rush. We have a good manager, we're making good progress and we have young talent. We can be patient while that young talent develops." Right?

It'd be nice if that were the case, but instead of doing that, the Orioles got very involved in free agency, went out and got J.J. Hardy, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Gregg. Average age: 31.8.

They're not all old and I don't dislike all of the signings, but why the urgency? Why the apparently desperate need to compete now when they probably won't?

I encourage you to read the whole post. Swafford made some strong points, some of which have been brought up by other baseball analysts, and even O's fans themselves.

But here are a few points before I get to my main problem with the piece:

• Yes, the O's did sign or trade for all of those players listed above. Hardy, Lee, Guerrero, and Duchscherer are all signed to one-year deals. Gregg signed a two-year deal, and sure, that was far from the best signing. And Reynolds has a guaranteed deal through 2012, with a club option for 2013. I'm not arguing that all of those deals are fantastic and will definitely work out, but they hardly strain the organization's position financially like Carlos Lee's six-year, $100 million deal in 2007 with the Astros.
• The O's did not trade away a bunch of young talent in an effort to get better overnight. The best player the O's traded, David Hernandez, is a reliever. Kam Mickolio and Jim Hoey are also relievers who either couldn't stay healthy or simply weren't very effective (or both), and Brett Jacobson, another reliever, is 24 and hasn't played above Single A. Those players -- four relievers -- still have some value, but not a ton of upside. So it's not like the O's took an enormous gamble or anything on Reynolds or Hardy.
• No one thinks the O's are going to the World Series. Even the most optimistic fans would be thrilled with third place -- not that that's the ultimate goal (it's obviously not), but still. It's possible that Andy MacPhail made a few of the team's moves (like the Guerrero signing) to improve the team in the short term, which would be unfortunate. But even someone like Guerrero could possibly be flipped at the trade deadline for a younger player or two, as could several other veterans.

Really, though, my problem is with Swafford's thinking that many of these signed players are blocking MLB-ready talent. To me, there are only two cases where that applies:

1) Guerrero, who's signing may block Felix Pie/Nolan Reimold
2) Duchscherer, who may force Chris Tillman (or another young starter) back to Triple A

That's it. Reynolds, Hardy, and Lee are not blocking anyone in the infield. Josh Bell has recently been working out at first base, but he showed last season that he's not close to being ready to assuming any kind of everyday role. Brandon Snyder probably isn't ready either, if he ever will be. With Guerrero serving as the O's designated hitter, Luke Scott will move to left field, which will likely force Pie and Reimold to either the bench or the minors. It would be nice to see both get regular playing time, so in that sense, Guerrero does seem to be blocking them. But, as I've mentioned before, Pie is 26 and Reimold is 27; we're not talking about young up-and-comers here.

Then there's Duchscherer. Duchscherer is 33, and the O's are banking on him returning to form to give the O's another reliable option in the rotation. If he stays healthy (not a guarantee) and pitches well, he may be another player the O's could trade at the deadline. But he was signed for less than $1 million, so if he can't stay healthy or is ineffective, it's not a huge loss. Considering the O's already have several other young starters to choose from -- Brian Matusz (24), Brad Bergesen (25), Jake Arrieta (24), and Tillman (22), and even Zach Britton (23) down the road -- it's not the worst thing to bring in a low-risk, high-reward starter like Duchscherer. What's the worst that could happen? That Duchscherer keeps getting hurt? Or maybe that he stays healthy enough to pitch but isn't effective? If that's the case, the O's aren't required to keep him in the rotation, and it wouldn't be difficult to let him go. It would be nice to give every young starter plenty of chances, but the season is long and pitchers always get hurt. There will be opportunities during the season to perform.

If someone wants to make the argument (like Keith Law has) that the O's would have been better off using money on signing international prospects or putting that money toward draft picks, that's one thing. But it's hard to get too upset with the majority of moves the O's have made, especially since most of the contracts signed are short-term deals. Besides maybe Gregg, the O's are not stuck with a truly horrible contract, and even Gregg is signed for just two years.

Considering what the O's have gone through for the last 13 seasons, it's hard to say that the O's are headed for trouble. They've been in a ton of trouble for a while, and while playing in the AL East, things will not get any easier. They still have a ton of work to do, but when is that not the case?

O's, MacPhail have busy week

If you've been seeking out Orioles-related content the past week or so, you've had a lot to choose from. There's been a lot of discussion about how effective the O's efforts this offseason have been -- some good, some bad. But the O's were mentioned a lot this week, and not all of it had to do with the team.

O's receive criticism for offseason moves

The Vladimir Guerrero signing was the last major move by Andy MacPhail and the O's front office. It was also the most widely panned. Two of the most vocal critics of the O's moves are two highly regarded baseball analysts: Keith Law and Rob Neyer.

On Thursday, MASN's Steve Melewski posted much of an interview he had with Law, who didn't hold back when it came to his opinion of what the O's were/are doing. Here are a few of his comments from the piece:

"The Orioles are not a club right now that is adding young talent, they have added veteran players to the roster. I don't get it, they are not winning 85 games this year and even if they did, what is that going to buy them? A couple extra fans in the seats? It won't put them in the playoffs," Law said.

"Vlad Guerrero, if he's not toast, he's in the toaster. It doesn't make sense to acquire players like that. I understand (Nolan) Reimold had a bad year last year and Felix Pie is a flawed player. But, they cost you nothing and they have some talent. It's possible that one of those guys will actually develop into a solid big leaguer. You will never find that out if you send them back to Triple-A."

There's much more in the entire interview, including more criticism of the Guerrero and Mark Reynolds moves, his opinion that the O's should invest more money in player development, and Law's belief that the O's should fully commit to a youth movement instead of this season's approach.

As expected, many MASN commenters weren't happy with Law's comments, and some figured that he must have some kind of anti-Orioles bias for not drinking the MacPhail Kool-Aid. Much of that uproar caused Melewski to write another post on the topic, in which he noted that he didn't include every single comment from his interview with Law. Melewski also made a few points of his own at the end of the post about the team's general direction.

Law's comments were harsh, but Neyer has been critical too -- mostly of the Guerrero signing:

And finally, let me address my all-time least favorite argument in favor of moves like this: "Hey, they have to spend the money somewhere, don't they?"

Yes, they do. Or rather, they should. But they don't have to spend it here. Every year, teams don't sign draft picks because they don't want to spend the money. Or don't even draft someone because the asking price will be too high. But that's just the stuff we know about. Do you have any idea how many teen-aged Dominicans and Venezuelans you can sign for $8 million?

I don't know, either. A lot.

If you were making a list of the things that a team like the Orioles should not do, spending $8 million on a player like Vladimir Guerrero is really close to the top.

Hey, I might be wrong. Probably not, though.

Again, Neyer, like Law, brings up many fair points. Neyer also answered a few questions from Camden Chat, which included his take that "reaching .500 is a lot less important than assembling the pieces that might eventually lead to 90 wins (rather than 81)" -- I believe most O's fans would agree with that.

Many fans are upset with the criticism because they believe the team is headed in the right direction for once. It's tough to stomach that two of the most respected baseball writers in the business aren't completely on board with what the O's have have been doing.

Still, they are just two opinions -- well respected or not -- but they're not the only ones who have opinions on the team's moves. Here's what Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk (also a respected name) thinks of what the O's have done:

I would agree with Keith that the incremental improvements the O’s made this winter aren’t the things long-term plans are made of. But that’s only bad if the moves foreclose the possibility of making the sorts of changes that do fit in a sound long term plan. In the meantime, there is some value to making the team into one that fans who watch 100 games a year can better stomach than the version they’ve watched the past few years. Derrek Lee, Vlad Guerrero and Mark Reynolds aren’t going to be a part of the next contending Orioles team, but they are far more easy to stomach than the guys they’ve trotted out recently.

And more importantly, they aren’t preventing that next contending Orioles team from coming together.

I'm not really a big fan of the Guerrero signing, but I still tend to look at the overall picture much like Calcaterra. But everyone is entitled to their opinion; the only thing that matters is what happens on the field.

Guthrie and Scott sign one-year deals

The O's avoided arbitration with their last two arbitration-eligible players, agreeing to deals with Luke Scott and Jeremy Guthrie. Scott signed a one-year, $6.4 million deal, and Guthrie agreed to a one-year, $5.75 million deal. Unlike the Guerrero deal, there's no controversy surrounding these agreements.

MacPhail's take on the A-Rod contract

Speaking to law students at the Baltimore School of Law on Thursday, MacPhail, answering a question, offered his opinion on what he thought was the worst free agent signing in baseball history:

"Alex Rodriguez to Texas was the worst signing in the history of baseball in my view," MacPhail said, according to The Baltimore Sun. "Why? Because he played as well as you can possibly ask the kid to play. He had great years. And the needle didn't move at all. ... The team didn't improve. Attendance didn't go up. But hey, they got the lead story on ESPN. Well, if that's what motivates you, you're going down the wrong path. You want to put 35,000 people in the ballpark, win the games. That's what (fans) are there to see. That's what the Orioles need—to win some games."

MacPhail's comments made the rounds, and most people vehemently disagreed. FanGraphs' Dave Cameron probably wrote the most thorough refutation, in which he argued that Rodriguez's contract was a pretty good deal for the Rangers. Here is his conclusion:

Alex Rodriguez’s first contract was far from the worst deal in baseball history. In fact, given his performance in the years after he signed the deal, Rodriguez was actually worth the money he was paid. Unfortunately, the narrative of the deal lives on, despite all the illogical hula hoops you have to jump through in order to reach the conclusion that MacPhail suggested yesterday. Don’t believe the hype; A-Rod was not the cause of the Rangers failures, and the contract they signed him to was actually a wise investment. The problem is that was the only good investment that franchise made in those three years.

Neyer and Calcaterra also offered their takes, along with plenty of others. Is MacPhail wrong? Probably. But is he entitled to his opinion? Of course. It's pretty funny, though, that his comments about the A-Rod contract are being talked about right now considering that he just signed Guerrero to an $8 million deal.

Ernie Tyler passes away

Ernie Tyler, the Orioles' umpires' assistant for many, many years, passed away on Thursday night. He was 86. I could post a ton of glowing quotes and anecdotes about Tyler, but I'll just go with this awesome feat:

A local legend, Tyler once worked 3,819 consecutive home games at Memorial Stadium and Camden Yards, from Opening Day 1960 to July 27, 2007. His streak, which included 3,769 consecutive regular-season games, 40 post-season games and nine exhibitions, ended when he accepted an invitation from Cal Ripken Jr. to attend Ripken’s Hall of Fame induction in Cooperstown, N.Y.

Simply amazing. For more on Tyler, check out these articles. Rest in peace, Ernie.

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Didn't mean to end on a sad note, but that's how it goes sometimes. So yeah, I'd say that's a rather hectic week.

Gregg joins O's bullpen

On the heels of signing Derrek Lee, the Orioles have agreed to terms with reliever Kevin Gregg on a two-year deal. According to Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun (via Orioles Insider), Gregg's deal is worth $10 million and "also includes a club option for 2013 that could vest if Gregg is able to finish a certain number of games during the 2012 season."

Although signing Gregg makes more sense than a Type A free agent like Grant Balfour -- Gregg has Type B status, meaning the O's don't have to surrender a draft pick -- the move continues a puzzling trend of giving mediocre relievers multi-year contracts. Just last year the O's gave Mike Gonzalez a two-year, $12 million deal; even worse, he was a Type A free agent. Gonzalez seemed to right the ship as the 2010 season went along and he got healthier, but there's no chance that he lives up to his contract. The same can probably be said of Gregg.

Doesn't the O's front office remember what happened in the winter of 2006? Sure, Andy MacPhail wasn't with the O's yet and some, if not most, of the front office personnel is different now, but the valuable lesson(s) learned from that disastrous offseason should not be forgotten. That offseason, Mike Flanagan and Jim Duquette handed out a combined $41.5 million to Danys Baez (three years, $19 million), Chad Bradford (three years, $10.5 million), and Jamie Walker (three years, $12 million). According to FanGraphs, here's the total wins above replacement each was worth in his time in Baltimore:

Baez: -0.4 WAR (2007: -0.8 WAR; 2009: 0.4 WAR; missed 2008 with injury)
Bradford: 1.6 WAR (1.3 WAR in 2007; 0.6 combined WAR in 2008 with O's and Rays, after a trade)
Walker: -0.5 WAR (2007: 0.7 WAR; 2008: -0.9 WAR; 2009: -0.3 WAR)

For all of that money handed out to hopefully shore up the bullpen, the O's received a combined 0.7 WAR -- not even a full win. The Baez-Bradford-Walker debacle should have taught the O's how not to build a bullpen. Granted, the Gonzalez and Gregg deals are not three-year deals and may not hamstring the O's much from making other moves, if necessary, but it's hard to understand why they'd want to overpay relievers when guys like George Sherrill, Mark Hendrickson, and Will Ohman have been at least relatively effective, cheap bullpen additions in the past couple years. Maybe it's because MacPhail values closing experience and doesn't mind targeting relievers who have piled up saves in the past. Gonzalez had 54 career saves before coming to Baltimore; Gregg has 122. (For what it's worth, Koji Uehara received a two-year, $10 million deal before the 2009 season, but he was signed to be a starter and did start before eventually moving to the bullpen amid injury concerns. He's also been effective in Baltimore, posting a 1.7 WAR in 2009 and a 1.4 WAR in 2010.)

Dave Cameron said it best in a December 2010 post, "Relievers Are Not Worth Multi-Year Deals" (which is certainly worth reading). I don't think MacPhail and the O's have learned that lesson quite yet, but at least they haven't started handing out three-year deals to relievers again.

O's have 'definite interest' in Grant Balfour

All that seems to be happening right now with the Orioles is rumor reporting, and here's the latest one: According to MASN's Roch Kubatko, the O's are interested in reliever Grant Balfour.

Balfour would give the O's another power arm in the bullpen, but he's not a dominant reliever. His 3.81 career ERA is decent, not great, and he'll also strike out plenty of batters (10.23 career K/9). He'll give up walks too -- 4.34 career BB/9 -- though he did cut down on his number of walks last season (2.77 BB/9).

Balfour's pitch of choice is his fastball, but he has started to rely more on his slider and cutter in recent seasons. It may also be worth noting that, coincidentally, Balfour's fastball velocity has dropped from 94.7 mph in 2008 to 92.6 in 2010.

Kubatko noted another important factor in potentially signing Balfour:

The one hitch with Balfour is his Type A status. He'd cost the Orioles a second-round pick. Not sure if you consider that a steep price, but it must not be deterring the front office because there's definite interest.

Considering the O's just went through this very same thing last year when Andy MacPhail targeted and signed Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12 million contract, I guess Type A status relievers don't really scare the O's. Many scouts and prospect analysts have hinted that the 2011 crop of players is going to result in a deep draft, so surrendering a second-round pick just to sign an above average reliever would not make a whole lot of sense.

Maybe the O's are faking interest in Balfour to get Kevin Gregg to notice, hoping he'll want to sign first. Balfour is a better reliever than Gregg, though Gregg may end up making more money just because he racked up a lot of saves last season. I'd rather the O's didn't sign either reliever, but at least Gregg has Type B status, meaning the O's wouldn't need to relinquish their second-round pick.

Derrek Lee or Adam LaRoche? Grant Balfour or Kevin Gregg? I can't say that these are enormous choices or will improve the team that much, but they are still decisions that will undoubtedly have an effect on the team.

O's still weighing first base options

Even though it's old news at this point, the Orioles still haven't been able to sign a first baseman. Ken Rosenthal weighed in on the matter yesterday, saying the O's would rather sign Derrek Lee than Adam LaRoche, mainly because LaRoche covets a three-year deal. Apparently the O's don't want to commit to LaRoche for three years, which is great to hear.

Rosenthal also mentions a popular suggestion/fall-back plan for the O's -- playing Luke Scott at first and signing a DH instead -- but he notes that Andy MacPhail and Co. "prefer a stronger defensive alignment." That doesn't sound like they have a whole lot of confidence in Scott's defensive skills at first base.

I have a feeling that Lee is going to sign before LaRoche, but it has to be tough to choose between the O's and Nationals (and maybe the Padres). Hopefully something happens soon.

For some reason, O's re-sign Izturis

A day after acquiring a new shortstop, the Orioles decided that they'd like to have their old one back too. Surprisingly, the O's have signed Cesar Izturis to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, according to Orioles Insider's Jeff Zrebiec. The deal apparently also includes some playing time incentives.

Even though the deal will end up only costing $1-$2 million, the decision to bring back Izturis is puzzling at best. J.J. Hardy is obviously better than Izturis in just about every way, so what's the point of spending the money on a backup shortstop like Izturis when a cheaper option like Robert Andino could be used instead?

In just 16 games last year, Andino (0.5 fWAR, 0.4 brWAR) was more valuable than Izturis (-0.3 fWAR, -0.4 brWAR) was in 150 games. Meanwhile, Andino earned the league minimum in 2010 while Izturis made a little over $2.5 million.

Even if Hardy gets hurt and ends up missing time -- which has to be Andy MacPhail's main reason for re-signing Izturis -- Izturis isn't likely to produce much at all. He hit just .230/.277/.268 last season, so it's not like he's any kind of intimidating bat coming off the bench. Hardy is also a better fielder than Izturis at this point in his career, so he won't be a late-game defensive sub at shortstop, either. Izturis could take over for Mark Reynolds at third when the O's have a late lead, but then again, so can Andino, who is a fine defensive infielder himself. Even if any of those possible roles mattered a whole lot, would it make sense to spend $1.5 million for a backup who may not see much of the field?

In the end, if this is the worst decision the O's make this offseason, it's hard to get too upset about it, especially since the deal isn't for a ton of money. But still, it's unlikely that both Izturis and Andino will be on the roster if the O's decide to keep Brendan Harris around, which seems probable since he's still due about $1.75 million in 2011.

If Izturis ends up taking Andino's roster spot, it'll be a shame because not only is Andino younger and cheaper, but he's also probably a better player.

MacPhail's moves not paying off

Before the current MLB season started, the general consensus was that the Orioles were going to be better -- probably not a whole lot better, but at least improved. Last year the O's were 64-98 and finished in fifth place in the AL East, and many figured that the O's would play better this season and at least move out of the AL East gutter and possibly finish in fourth place. Right now, the O's are 25-59 and 16.5 games behind fourth-place Toronto and a whopping 28 games behind the first-place Yankees.

Now, the O's weren't supposed to compete for a title or anything by any means, but they were supposed to be showing signs of at least some improvement by this point. Several things, including injuries, youth, and overall poor play, have prevented that from happening, but the O's also haven't received much help from Andy MacPhail's offseason moves.

Just as a refresher, here are the offseason moves the O's made. Let's take a closer look at those moves:

Mike Gonzalez: Gonzalez has been dealing with a strained left shoulder since early April, and he has only appeared in three games. But in those few games he was terrible, giving up four earned runs in two innings and blowing two saves. He did save one game, though, so he had one OK performance (even though he allowed a hit and walked two batters in that inning). In his brief time on the mound, Gonzalez displayed a lack of control and decreased velocity, which obviously were reasons for the DL stint. There's still time (the rest of this season and next) for Gonzalez to help the O's bullpen out, but if he can't stay healthy and regain his pitching form, the O's wasted $12 million AND the No. 52 overall pick in the draft on Gonzalez.

Miguel Tejada: The O's brought Tejada back with a one-year, $6 million deal -- a decent gamble for a team without many corner infield options. Tejada was both willing to come back to Baltimore and move from shortstop to third base, so the move made sense (if not for the whole Garrett Atkins signing). Unfortunately, Tejada just hasn't played that well. Considering the position change, Tejada is doing a decent job at third, I guess, but he's still playing defense at a below-average level, with a -3.0 UZR at this point. He has a great arm, but sometimes he relies too heavily on it to make plays. At the plate, Tejada hasn't been much better: .277/.310/.370 with six homers and 33 RBI. Since he doesn't walk (3.1 BB%) or strike out much (9.3 K%), Tejada obviously puts the ball in play a lot. But he's not hitting for much power (his ISO is down to .093) and is hitting fewer line drives (18.5%) than the last two seasons (23.4% and 20.3%, respectively). One main problem: Tejada is chasing too many pitches out of the zone (37.2% O-Swing%). If he finishes the season with that number, it'll be the highest of his career. Tejada currently has been worth 0.2 wins above replacement (WAR) and $0.9 million -- so he's been slightly above replacement level. Still, that's not very good for someone who's been slotted in the No. 2 hole in the lineup for a few months now. If Josh Bell is still on the roster in a few weeks, there's no reason why the O's shouldn't give him more of a chance than Tejada, who probably doesn't deserve to be brought back next season.

Kevin Millwood: The Rangers sent Millwood and $3 million in cash to the O's in exchange for Chris Ray (and Rule 5 pick Ben Snyder). On the surface, the move made sense: The O's needed a veteran pitching presence to go alongside Jeremy Guthrie, and if Millwood pitched well the O's could possibly trade him to another team for something of value. Millwood's deal also expires after this season, so even if he pitched poorly, he wouldn't be a salary burden. Unfortunately, after a solid start, Millwood's numbers have dipped recently, and the O's just placed him on the DL with a strained right forearm. At the moment, here are Millwood's numbers: 2-8, 5.77 ERA, 84 K, 35 BB. Overall, his strikeouts are up and his walks are slightly down; he's also been a little unlucky (.344 BABIP). Still, opposing batters are hitting the ball hard off of him (23.0 LD%), and he's not getting as many ground balls as usual. He has room to improve -- his HR/FB ratio of 14.8% probably won't stay that high -- but he'll have to show that he's healthy if the O's are going to be able to trade him.

Garrett Atkins: The Atkins signing has already been covered. It was an awful move, but at least he's gone now.

Mark Hendrickson: The O's brought Hendrickson back after a decent 2009 season with a one-year, $1.4 million contract. Oddly enough, he's arguably pitching better this season despite having an ERA of 5.52. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down from last season (when he finished with a 4.37 ERA), and he's also allowing fewer home runs. Hendrickson's problem, despite allowing a few more line drives, is that he's been unlucky (.367 BABIP). If that number was closer to his career BABIP of .315, his numbers would probably be similar to last season's, or even better. Hendrickson hasn't been great, but he's almost reached the value of his contract ($1.1 million according to FanGraphs, at least) with some room for improvement.

Will Ohman: The O's signed Ohman to a minor league deal, and so far it's paid off. Ohman's strikeouts are up and his walks are down, and he's put together a solid 2.84 ERA so far as the team's late-game situational lefty. He's probably pitching a little over his head, but the O's just may be able to flip him for a decent prospect. Hopefully they don't wait too long to do so.

Craig Tatum: Tatum was claimed off of waivers from the Reds, and he's been a competent backup to Matt Wieters. Tatum is hitting .229/.327/.271 in limited duty, and he's played pretty good defense behind the plate -- a necessary attribute for a backup catcher. According to FanGraphs, Tatum has been worth 0.1 WAR and $0.5 million, and since that doesn't factor in his defense behind the plate, he's probably been worth slightly more.

So that's basically it, besides the decision to bring back Scott Moore with a minor league deal and to pick up Julio Lugo because of injury concerns with Brian Roberts. Lugo has been terrible (-0.3 WAR), but the O's basically received him for nothing. It's funny that the only deals that are paying off are for guys like Hendrickson, Ohman, and Tatum, which were all low-risk moves. Instead, the major signings/moves for Gonzalez, Tejada, Millwood, and Atkins haven't given the O's much of anything to this point, and when actually factoring in their value to the O's this season, those four have a combined WAR of -0.5. Atkins and his -1.1 WAR obviously weigh that group down, but that's not exactly the best way to spend over $25 million ($6 million for Gonzalez this year, $6 million for Tejada, $9 million for Millwood after subtracting the $3 million received from the Rangers, and $4.5 million for Atkins).

If the O's are going to eventually compete in the next few years, there's no question that the team's young talent is going to have to start producing. But the O's can't make the kind of mistakes they did this past offseason and expect to be a whole lot better.

Stats/info via FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference

Peter Schmuck defends MacPhail, Orioles

The Orioles are 45-63, and they're 5-15 since the all-star break. As usual, many fans are frustrated. But Peter Schmuck is tired of the whining:

Question: Did anyone in any independent local media outlet that publishes preseason predictions pick the Orioles to finish anywhere but last? Did anyone speculate that the Orioles had any chance to be really competitive against the other four teams in the American League East?

I don't expect anybody to be happy about the way the Orioles are playing right now, but acting like some other manager would have dragged them into contention or some other free agent pitcher (including A.J. Burnett) would have prevented them from finishing in the basement is simply absurd.

This is team at a critical point in a rebuilding plan, bringing up young player after young player to prepare for -- perhaps -- a more competitive situation next year and beyond. And I'm reading posts from people who already think Chris Tillman is a bust after 10 1/3 innings at the major league level.

Nobody is enjoying this, and I wouldn't expect anyone to. I'm certainly not, and I've pointed out on many occasions that I think this Orioles team doesn't know how to win and lacks a killer instinct. I've also spent years dissecting the mismanagement of this team from the law office to the manager's office, but I'm not going to join in the ridiculous call to abandon a highly progressive rebuilding program after two years and two months.

Most rebuilding jobs take four or five years, but the Orioles have a chance to be competitive in the third year of Andy MacPhail's accelerated plan. And there's still a surprising percentage of fans who are ready to throw the whole thing out the window and start over again because the team is going to finish this year right where everybody thought it would.

He's exactly right. When was the last time the Orioles had this much promise? Look at all of the potential impact rookies on the roster: Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, and David Hernandez. Sure, some of them are struggling right now, but who cares? Like Schmuck says, the Orioles were never going to contend this year, or possibly next year, anyway.

Andy MacPhail has helped the Orioles reload the farm system with some fantastic trades. Just recently, he traded George Sherrill, basically a throw-in in the Erik Bedard trade, to the Dodgers for two more solid prospects: third-baseman Josh Bell and pitcher Steve Johnson (ranked as the 3rd and 14th best prospects dealt at the trade deadline, respectively, according to FanGraphs' Marc Hulet).

The possible starting rotation next season could look something like this: Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman, and David Hernandez. Koji Uehara could recover nicely in a bullpen role, but he probably won't be in the rotation. And that's not even mentioning some of the other talented pitching prospects still in the O's system. Plus, Jason Berken has struggled, but he could still turn things around at some point, as could Rich Hill.

Anyway, the future looks bright for the Orioles. If you don't think so, just take a look at the O's outfield, at catcher, or at the young pitching talent that will be developing over the next year or two. It's frustrating now, but the goal is to eventually compete for a long time -- not just finish .500 one season so everyone feels a little bit better.

O's offseason moves draw praise

Andy MacPhail has a plan, and, for the second straight offseason, has made some shrewd baseball decisions.

Here's a quick recap of the moves this winter (not in chronological order):

• Traded Ramon Hernandez and cash to the Reds for Ryan Freel, Justin Turner, and Brandon Waring.
• Signed Nick Markakis to a six-year, $66 million extenson.
• Signed Koji Uehara to a two-year, $10 million dollar contract.
• Signed Ty Wigginton to a two-year, $6 million dollar deal.
• Inked Cesar Izturis to a two-year, $5 million dollar contract.
• Avoided arbitration with Luke Scott: one-year, $2.4 million deal.
• Signed Mark Hendrickson to a one-year, $1.5 million dollar contract.
• Gave Greg Zaun a one-year, $1.5 million dollar deal with a 2010 club option.
• Avoided arbitration with George Sherrill: one-year, $2.75 million deal.
• Dealt Garrett Olson and Henry Williamson to the Cubs for Felix Pie.
• Let Brian Burres, Luis Hernandez, Alex Cintron, Juan Castro, Lance Cormier, Rocky Cherry, Brandon Fahey, Kevin Millar, Freddie Bynum, Jay Payton, and Daniel Cabrera leave for other teams. (Mostly the Blue Jays and Nationals)
• Traded Randor Bierd to the Red Sox for David Pauley.
• Signed Donnie Murphy, Justin Christian, Robby Hammock, Chad Moeller, John Parrish, Brad Hennessey, and Chris Gomez to minor league deals.
• Received Rich Hill from the Cubs for a player to be named later.

That's a lot of small moves. So, besides the big contract extension given to Markakis, which certainly needed to happen, the Orioles signed a few players to relatively cheap one- and two-year deals. The O's didn't lose any player of significant talent in their trades, and they acquired a couple of players with some upside who could pan out: Pie, Hill, Pauley, Hennessey, etc. And if they don't, that's fine.

The important thing is that the Orioles didn't throw a ton of money at one player who could really hurt them down the road. This offseason didn't have any Albert Belles, David Seguis, Javy Lopezes, or Rafael Palmeiros. MacPhail already knows that this team needs to build from the ground up; he's not going to jeopardize that.

Back to the point, though; a few smart baseball writers are on board with what the Orioles are trying to do. Not that it's a huge deal, but I'm at least surprised -- and moderately excited -- that the Orioles are actually earning some props for apparently doing something right.

Tom Verducci is impressed with the Orioles' outfield and young talent:

Realistically, they have no shot at the playoffs, not in the AL East. But Baltimore actually has an honest-to-goodness shortstop now, Cesar Izturis, and under Andy MacPhail has a deep collection of young arms that will audition throughout the season. Only the Rangers allowed more runs than the 869 yielded by Baltimore pitchers last season, so improved run prevention should not be too difficult. With an exciting young outfield (Felix Pie, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis) and the next great catching prospect (Matt Wieters), the Orioles at last are on the right track.

Keith Law, who gives a straight-forward answer, believes the Orioles are making smart moves:

john (baltimore, md): Have you been impressed with Andy MacPhail with the Orioles? Player development for the O's seems to be going in the right direction?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

And Jayson Stark recently talked with an MLB scout who likes the addition of Rich Hill to the rotation.

"I think Rich Hill can win 10 to 12 games in Baltimore," [said the scout.] "He's a back-of-the-rotation starter, but he's a major league pitcher. He's left-handed. And he's going to be around the right people. [Pitching coach] Rick Kranitz will be good with him, and [manager] Dave Trembley will be good with him. So he should be a lot more relaxed than he was in Chicago."

Just like last offseason, most, if not all, of the moves the Orioles made during this offseason seem to serve a purpose, and none of them will cripple the Orioles in any way going forward. The Orioles are at least somewhat better at this point than they were a few months ago. What else can you ask for? (And if your answer is: Sign Adam Dunn or Ben Sheets, then you have failed Orioles Rebuilding 101.)

(Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for some O's salary information.)

O's looking to deal for another unwanted Cub

After acquiring outfielder Felix Pie from the Cubs a week and a half ago, the Orioles appear to be on the verge of trading for another Cubs player. According to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles want to deal for left-handed pitcher Rich Hill, and the deal could be done "as early as next week." The Cubs would apparently receive a player to be named later.

Hill, whose value appears to be limited because he is out of minor league options, would surely be given a chance to earn a spot in the Orioles' rotation.

In 57 career starts and 64 total games, Hill has a 4.37 ERA with 309 strikeouts and 137 walks. In 2007, Hill posted an 11-8 record with a 3.92 ERA and a K/BB ratio of nearly 3.

If Hill, who turns 29 in March, returns to his 2007 form, this deal could turn out to be rewarding, to say the least.

Loewen leaves for Toronto

Instead of re-signing with the Orioles and trying to make it back to the majors as a corner outfielder or first baseman, Adam Loewen has signed a minor league deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Let's be very clear here: Loewen doesn't owe the Orioles anything. He can do whatever he wants, and he did so by choosing to leave Baltimore to try to revive his career elsewhere. It's unfortunate that his career hasn't gone as planned, and he's apparently trying to make the best of it.

An obviously agitated and surprised Andy MacPhail had this to say:

"I don't think it's about money. The way it was explained to me, it's all about playing for his national team in Canada and it's not about terms or anything. The way it was explained to me is he grew up there and it's his lifelong dream to play for Toronto. I have no interest in having Baltimore become part of Canada. We're proud members of the United States, and there isn't much we can do about it."

Many Orioles fans (like myself) figured Loewen would stay loyal to the team that gave him a major league contract after drafting him fourth overall in 2002. They were wrong.

Loewen's career numbers: 8-8 record in 29 starts, 5.38 ERA, 134 Ks.

Good luck. Maybe.