O's bullpen shuffle continues as Simon and Eveland depart

The Orioles have placed Alfredo Simon on waivers, according to Eduardo A. Encina and Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun. Simon was seen as a potential long reliever and spot starter out of the bullpen, which are roles he's filled in the past.

If no other team claims Simon, he could be back with the O's. But that doesn't seem likely. This is the second notable bullpen-related move the Orioles have made in about a day as they get closer to finalizing their 25-man roster. The other was designating lefty Dana Eveland for assignment, which is particularly dumbfounding because Dan Duquette traded two prospects to the Dodgers in December to acquire Eveland's services. (Eveland's 40-man roster spot was filled by Zelous Wheeler, a 25-year-old infielder whom the O's claimed off of waivers from the Brewers. He was immediately shipped to Norfolk.)

At the time, giving up anything at all for Eveland's services seemed ridiculous, and that move looks even more foolish now. Here's what Duquette had to say of the acquisition at the time:

"We think the price was reasonable to add a pitcher of his caliber to our team, and he has experience in the big leagues. You can look around in the book for left-handed pitchers that won 15 games [combined in Triple-A and the Majors] last year and it's a short list. So that was appealing to us."

[...]

"He's a credible Major League pitcher and he gives us some more depth," Duquette said. "All things considered, we think there's some value there for Dana to help our ballclub."

So, yeah, that winning 15 games thing didn't mean anything, and no one was fooled by Duquette's attempt to spin the situation. The two minor leaguers the O's sent to the Dodgers may never pan out, but it's also possible the O's gave them away without Eveland ever suiting up for the O's in a regular season game. And while I doubt most fans thought Eveland was very good, I believe they thought he'd at least pitch for the team. What a shame.

Even with Eveland and Simon out of consideration, some tough bullpen choices remain. The likely shoo-ins are Jim Johnson, Matt Lindstrom, Luis Ayala, Pedro Strop, and Kevin Gregg (ugh). If the O's cared about their fans, they'd get rid of Gregg right now somehow, but because he's due to make $5.8 million this season, that's not going to happen. (But we can hope!) Troy Patton and Zach Phillips are battling for the team's left-handed reliever role, though they both probably deserve to be in the bullpen. And then other options include Tsuyoshi Wada (who could be headed to the disabled list to start the season), Chris Tillman, Darren O'Day, and Pat Neshek. None of Johnson/Lindstrom/Ayala/Strop/Gregg adequately fits the long-man role, so that's something else for Buck Showalter to consider.

That mishmash of bullpen arms does seem like it can be competent, though likely not overly so. And considering the team's likely rotation (in some order) of Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Tommy Hunter, and Brian Matusz/Wada, there's going to be a lot of available relief innings to be had.

About Kevin Gregg and front office thinking

For some reason, the Orioles failed to learn from Mike Gonzalez's awful first season (and plenty of other failed reliever signings before that) that signing relievers to multi-year deals rarely goes according to plan. Except for the elite, relievers are notoriously fickle, and it's difficult to predict their performances for one year, let alone two or three. So instead of cutting their losses and searching for other cheaper or underappreciated bullpen options, the O's front office decided to bring in Kevin Gregg to assume the closer's role.

Unlike Gonzalez (who received a two-year, $12 million deal in 2010), Gregg was not a Type A free agent (but was a Type B), meaning the O's didn't have to surrender a draft pick to sign him -- something that made the Gonzalez signing even more ridiculous. But the O's did hand Gregg a two-year, $10 million contract, meaning he'll be back next season. And regardless of what Buck Showalter says/said in MASN commercials about how the save rule "doesn't carry much weight with [him]," well, that just hasn't proven to be true.

Before joining the O's, Gregg had never been signed to more than a one-year deal. True, he was arbitration eligible until the 2010 season, but even then the Blue Jays signed him as a free agent to a one-year, $2.75 million deal. If the O's had done something similar with Gregg, I doubt many fans would have complained. Sure, he's not a lights-out reliever, but even a rather ordinary reliever can pitch well for one season. And that's basically what Gregg did last season for the Blue Jays: He finished the season with a pitching line of 3.51/3.57/4.05 (ERA/FIP/xFIP), accumulated a WAR of 0.8, and struck out 8.85 batters per nine while walking 4.58 per nine. Again, those aren't fantastic numbers, but they are useful and didn't cost the Jays a ton of money.

So why did the O's overreact and sign Gregg for two years? Maybe they were impressed by the then-32-year-old's 37 saves in 2010. Or maybe they just liked his goggles. Either way, they brought Gregg on board, and he has been terrible. In 52 innings, he has a pitching line of 4.33/5.03/5.01 while also striking out fewer batters (7.27 K/9) and walking way too many (6.23 BB/9). In his career, Gregg has struck out 8.23 per nine and walked 3.97 per nine, so his numbers are obviously down across the board this season. By the way, Gregg has a WAR of -0.4 this season, which is awful. It's also worth noting that in his 52 innings, Gregg has allowed 50 hits and 36 walks, while also hitting a batter. That's a ton of baserunners.

When the O's had both Jim Johnson and Koji Uehara, it was ridiculous to have Gregg saving games, particularly in situations with, say, a one- or two-run lead. Without Uehara and with the O's apparently wanting to stretch Johnson out so he can start at some point this season or next (more on that in a second), there really aren't that many options for the O's to turn to late in games.

But look at last night's win, for example. Zach Britton pitched six innings and then handed the ball off to Jim Johnson with a 3-2 lead. Johnson pitched two spotless innings, and then it was Gregg-in-for-the-save time. First of all, are the O's going to stretch Johnson out, or not? He pitched three innings against the Angels on August 20, and in five appearances since then he's pitched one inning three times and two innings twice. Haven't they decided what to do yet? Second, again, the O's bullpen does not have a bunch of fantastic relievers in it right now, but how can any team rely on Gregg in a one-run game? He's not pitching like someone who Showalter can just throw out there for an inning, especially with such a slim lead. In the ninth inning last night, Gregg nearly blew another save (which would have been his seventh). He allowed a leadoff single but retired the next two batters. He then proceeded to walk the next two to load the bases. Thankfully, he retired Brandon Guyer to end the game, but not after yet another roller-coaster outing.

If Gregg's performance this season hasn't bothered you enough, maybe this quote after the game will:

"The bottom line is you obviously haven’t acquired my taste in pitching yet,” Gregg said. “It’s what I do. It’s what I’ve always done. And yeah, it’d be nice if I was like [Jim Johnson] and went 1-2-3, every inning I’m out there. But I’m not J.J. I don’t throw 97 [mph] with sink.”

It's easy to get mad at Gregg for saying something like this. He's certainly frustrated with how he's pitched this season, even if you can't quite take that thought away from his quote. But in a way, he's right, and I don't mean that as a positive. Sure, Gregg is having his worst season in the majors, and I don't think many people would have thought he'd be just this bad. But for the most part, this is who he is. He likely wasn't going to join the Orioles and transform into some dominant closer; you can't predict that type of thing by just looking at save totals. So it was foolish for the O's to think they could predict what an average pitcher like Gregg would do for a single season, let alone two.

I know one thing, though: I will never acquire Gregg's taste in pitching. He can try to convince fans that he'd prefer to walk guys in order to end up facing someone who he's more confident he can retire, but, frankly, I'm tired of hearing about how he never gives in to opposing hitters and that he continues to nibble when he's down in the count because he's a gambler out there who refuses to give in. Really, he's just not that good, and the O's are relying on him to do more because they made the mistake of paying him to do so.

The reason why the O's are trotting Gregg out there in save opportunity after save opportunity is because they're looking to justify the money they're paying him. It's the same reason why Vladimir Guerrero continues to bat fourth or fifth every game. Maybe the O's don't have a slew of other options to replace either guy, but by refusing to cut their losses, or at the very least adjust, Showalter and/or the front office are hurting the team. And they're upsetting fans.

Kevin Gregg is not better than Koji Uehara

With a 5-4 lead in the ninth tonight, Buck Showalter brought in Kevin Gregg for the save. Gregg retired the first batter, but he eventually blew the save, allowing a run on an RBI single by Casey Kotchman. (The O's eventually lost 7-5 in 11 innings.) Gregg has pitched moderately well this year, but there was a pitcher still in the bullpen who Showalter should have went to instead: Koji Uehara.

This situation isn't something new; Showalter seems to like having Gregg in the closer role, and Gregg has racked up 12 saves. But acquiring saves doesn't make a pitcher great. Consider the career numbers of both pitchers:

Gregg: 3.99 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 8.28 K/9, 3.88 BB/9, 134 saves

Uehara: 3.32 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 8.98 K/9, 1.43 BB/9, 13 saves

In parts of nine major league seasons, Gregg has accumulated 4.9 fWAR. In parts of only three seasons, Uehara has already been worth 3.6 fWAR.

The Orioles may not have the greatest bullpen in the league, but the team does have some decent relievers. Jim Johnson, who's also been solid this year, pitched two scoreless innings before Gregg entered the game.

I've argued before that using Gregg in a save situation when Uehara (or Johnson) is sitting in the bullpen is pretty silly, especially when both pitchers are well rested. In this case, Uehara pitched last night -- when the O's were already leading 5-0, which is another matter entirely. However, Uehara ended up pitching the 10th inning tonight after Gregg departed, meaning he was just fine to pitch the ninth. Does it really make a ton of sense to use one guy instead of another clearly better option just because the former has racked up more saves? That logic applies even more so since the O's were leading by only a single run.

Uehara is the better pitcher. He very well may have blown the save just as Gregg did. But a manager's job is to put his team in the best position to win, and it doesn't look like Showalter did that tonight.

Gregg over Uehara? Huh?

Leading 5-4 going into the bottom of the ninth last night, Buck Showalter opted to bring in Kevin Gregg to close the game out. Jorge Posada homered on Gregg's very first pitch, tying the game. He then gave up a double to Curtis Granderson. To Gregg's credit, he still got out of the jam, but the Orioles eventually went on to lose in 10 innings.

Showalter has refused to name a closer, and he insists that his decisions aren't being driven by saves. Well, if that's the case, then why did he choose Gregg? Let's compare the career numbers of Gregg and Koji Uehara:

Gregg: 4.02 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 8.33 K/9, 3.75 BB/9
Uehara: 3.49 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 8.34 K/9, 1.35 BB/9

Gregg has thrown many more innings because he's been in the majors longer, so maybe Uehara has gotten a little lucky and is somewhat worse than his numbers indicate. If you wanted to play that card, I guess that's at least debatable. But on what planet is Gregg the better option?

Here's what I think was going through Showalter's mind on who to choose:

1) Gregg has 123 career saves; Uehara has 13. This had to play a part, in some way.

2) Uehara has two blown saves in his short career, and both of them came against the Yankees last season.

And, yeah, I guess that's it. Individual matchups could have played a factor, but that seems rather silly as well. Honestly, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense no matter how you slice it. If Showalter had opted for Uehara instead, Koji could certainly have given up a run and the O's still could have lost. Blown saves happen.

The point is this: The O's would have had a better chance to win with Uehara on the mound instead of Gregg. Isn't that what matters most?

O's hold on for 3-1 win over Rays

After a relatively stress-free opening day win over the Rays yesterday (thanks to Jeremy Guthrie's outstanding pitching performance), the Orioles survived a potential game-winning (or at least tying) hit because of a spectacular game-saving catch by Nick Markakis.

With the O's leading 3-1, the Rays had runners on first and second with two outs in the ninth. Ben Zobrist hit a deep fly ball to right field, but Markakis -- and his glove -- seemingly appeared out of nowhere to snatch the ball before it hit the wall. Markakis then smashed into the wall and took a moment or two before revealing to the umpires that yes, he did in fact make the catch. Thanks to Markakis, Brian Roberts's three-run homer in the eighth inning, and a solid start by Chris Tillman, the O's move to 2-0.

Tillman threw six no-hit, shutout innings in place of the now-injured Brian Matusz. Tillman was, in a sense, wildly effective (three walks), but he also struck out five and kept hitters off balance with a powerful fastball and filthy change-up.

After Tillman left the scoreless game, Jeremy Accardo took over and retired the first two batters he faced. Then, though, things got a little dicey. B.J. Upton singled and stole second, and Matt Joyce was walked intentionally. Kelly Shoppach followed with a single to left field. But Felix Pie, who had just entered the game as a pinch-runner for Luke Scott that same inning, threw a bullet to Matt Wieters to nail Upton at home. Wieters blocked the plate brilliantly and applied the tag on Upton in time, keeping the game tied.

The next inning, despite leading 3-0 after the Roberts home run, the bullpen continued to live dangerously. Mike Gonzalez relieved Accardo and walked consecutive batters before retiring Johnny Damon. Koji Uehara then came in and got the final two outs of the inning, but not before allowing an RBI single to Manny Ramirez. Still, at least Uehara pounded the strike zone -- seven of his eight pitches were strikes.

Holding that 3-1 lead in the ninth, Kevin Gregg was sent in to get the save. Upton led off with a single, and then Joyce grounded into a fielder's choice (which sure looked like a double play on replay). Gregg then walked Shoppach before getting a strike out and the huge defensive play by Markakis to end the game.

I'm going to preface what I'm about to say with this: Yes, it was just one game, and there's no sense in overreacting, especially since the O's did win. Fans know what they're going to get out of Gregg. He's never been a shut-down closer/reliever, and he's going to have some roller-coaster saves, along with some blown saves as well. That's who he is. As for Gonzalez, though, he started last season out on a rocky note, blowing two saves in his first three appearances with the O's. The O's are desperately going to need him to be effective, particularly if he's going to be the only left-handed reliever in the bullpen (which I don't think will last very long, for what it's worth). Gonzalez deserves the opportunity to overcome a bad outing or two, as do most of the players since the season just started. But if he keeps having difficulty throwing strikes and handing out free passes to opposing hitters, the bullpen as a collective unit is in trouble.

Sorry for the negative spiel after such an exciting win. The starting pitching and defense to start the season have been great, and I'm definitely looking forward to watching Zach Britton make his major league debut tomorrow.

Gregg joins O's bullpen

On the heels of signing Derrek Lee, the Orioles have agreed to terms with reliever Kevin Gregg on a two-year deal. According to Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun (via Orioles Insider), Gregg's deal is worth $10 million and "also includes a club option for 2013 that could vest if Gregg is able to finish a certain number of games during the 2012 season."

Although signing Gregg makes more sense than a Type A free agent like Grant Balfour -- Gregg has Type B status, meaning the O's don't have to surrender a draft pick -- the move continues a puzzling trend of giving mediocre relievers multi-year contracts. Just last year the O's gave Mike Gonzalez a two-year, $12 million deal; even worse, he was a Type A free agent. Gonzalez seemed to right the ship as the 2010 season went along and he got healthier, but there's no chance that he lives up to his contract. The same can probably be said of Gregg.

Doesn't the O's front office remember what happened in the winter of 2006? Sure, Andy MacPhail wasn't with the O's yet and some, if not most, of the front office personnel is different now, but the valuable lesson(s) learned from that disastrous offseason should not be forgotten. That offseason, Mike Flanagan and Jim Duquette handed out a combined $41.5 million to Danys Baez (three years, $19 million), Chad Bradford (three years, $10.5 million), and Jamie Walker (three years, $12 million). According to FanGraphs, here's the total wins above replacement each was worth in his time in Baltimore:

Baez: -0.4 WAR (2007: -0.8 WAR; 2009: 0.4 WAR; missed 2008 with injury)
Bradford: 1.6 WAR (1.3 WAR in 2007; 0.6 combined WAR in 2008 with O's and Rays, after a trade)
Walker: -0.5 WAR (2007: 0.7 WAR; 2008: -0.9 WAR; 2009: -0.3 WAR)

For all of that money handed out to hopefully shore up the bullpen, the O's received a combined 0.7 WAR -- not even a full win. The Baez-Bradford-Walker debacle should have taught the O's how not to build a bullpen. Granted, the Gonzalez and Gregg deals are not three-year deals and may not hamstring the O's much from making other moves, if necessary, but it's hard to understand why they'd want to overpay relievers when guys like George Sherrill, Mark Hendrickson, and Will Ohman have been at least relatively effective, cheap bullpen additions in the past couple years. Maybe it's because MacPhail values closing experience and doesn't mind targeting relievers who have piled up saves in the past. Gonzalez had 54 career saves before coming to Baltimore; Gregg has 122. (For what it's worth, Koji Uehara received a two-year, $10 million deal before the 2009 season, but he was signed to be a starter and did start before eventually moving to the bullpen amid injury concerns. He's also been effective in Baltimore, posting a 1.7 WAR in 2009 and a 1.4 WAR in 2010.)

Dave Cameron said it best in a December 2010 post, "Relievers Are Not Worth Multi-Year Deals" (which is certainly worth reading). I don't think MacPhail and the O's have learned that lesson quite yet, but at least they haven't started handing out three-year deals to relievers again.

O's have 'definite interest' in Grant Balfour

All that seems to be happening right now with the Orioles is rumor reporting, and here's the latest one: According to MASN's Roch Kubatko, the O's are interested in reliever Grant Balfour.

Balfour would give the O's another power arm in the bullpen, but he's not a dominant reliever. His 3.81 career ERA is decent, not great, and he'll also strike out plenty of batters (10.23 career K/9). He'll give up walks too -- 4.34 career BB/9 -- though he did cut down on his number of walks last season (2.77 BB/9).

Balfour's pitch of choice is his fastball, but he has started to rely more on his slider and cutter in recent seasons. It may also be worth noting that, coincidentally, Balfour's fastball velocity has dropped from 94.7 mph in 2008 to 92.6 in 2010.

Kubatko noted another important factor in potentially signing Balfour:

The one hitch with Balfour is his Type A status. He'd cost the Orioles a second-round pick. Not sure if you consider that a steep price, but it must not be deterring the front office because there's definite interest.

Considering the O's just went through this very same thing last year when Andy MacPhail targeted and signed Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12 million contract, I guess Type A status relievers don't really scare the O's. Many scouts and prospect analysts have hinted that the 2011 crop of players is going to result in a deep draft, so surrendering a second-round pick just to sign an above average reliever would not make a whole lot of sense.

Maybe the O's are faking interest in Balfour to get Kevin Gregg to notice, hoping he'll want to sign first. Balfour is a better reliever than Gregg, though Gregg may end up making more money just because he racked up a lot of saves last season. I'd rather the O's didn't sign either reliever, but at least Gregg has Type B status, meaning the O's wouldn't need to relinquish their second-round pick.

Derrek Lee or Adam LaRoche? Grant Balfour or Kevin Gregg? I can't say that these are enormous choices or will improve the team that much, but they are still decisions that will undoubtedly have an effect on the team.

O's ink Jeremy Accardo

Yesterday, the Orioles made the first of a few expected moves to shore up the bullpen, or at least try to. That move was to sign reliever Jeremy Accardo to a one-year, $1.08 million deal.

Accardo turned 29 last week, but he hasn't pitched many MLB innings since 2007, which also happened to be his most effective season. Accardo, who had been with the Blue Jays since 2006, threw 67.1 innings in 2007 and posted a 2.14 ERA while striking out 7.62 batters per nine innings and walking 3.21 batters per nine. He wasn't bad the previous season either for both the Giants (before being traded) and Blue Jays, throwing 69.0 innings and posting a 7.04 K/9 and a 2.61 BB/9. His 5.35 ERA didn't reflect a strong performance, but he did pitch better than it suggests.

Unfortunately, Accardo missed much of the 2008 season because of an arm injury and only pitched 12.1 innings. He has spent time in Triple-A in both seasons since, though he did throw 24.2 innings with the Blue Jays in 2009, compiling a 2.55 ERA. Still, even in that small amount of time, his strikeouts decreased and his walks increased.

Even though Accardo is under 30 and has shown that he can be effective in the past, there's not a whole lot to suggest that Accardo can turn things around. According to PitchFx data, Accardo's velocity on his fastball has dropped in every season since 2007 -- from 94.6 then to 92.6 in 2010. Because of his 2008 injury and not throwing many innings since, those numbers don't include a whole lot of pitches, but they're worth noting.

If Accardo can regain some of that velocity and cut down on his walks, he may end up being worth the low-risk contract the O's offered. Still, it's probable that this deal is the best Accardo was offered and that no other team wanted to pay him as much. Accardo hasn't posted a WAR above zero since 2007, so there's obviously no guarantee that the O's will receive any return on their one-year investment.

With that being said, a few deals like this one would make much more sense than overpaying for a somewhat overrated reliever like Kevin Gregg. The O's have been down that road enough times, right?