About Kevin Gregg and front office thinking

For some reason, the Orioles failed to learn from Mike Gonzalez's awful first season (and plenty of other failed reliever signings before that) that signing relievers to multi-year deals rarely goes according to plan. Except for the elite, relievers are notoriously fickle, and it's difficult to predict their performances for one year, let alone two or three. So instead of cutting their losses and searching for other cheaper or underappreciated bullpen options, the O's front office decided to bring in Kevin Gregg to assume the closer's role.

Unlike Gonzalez (who received a two-year, $12 million deal in 2010), Gregg was not a Type A free agent (but was a Type B), meaning the O's didn't have to surrender a draft pick to sign him -- something that made the Gonzalez signing even more ridiculous. But the O's did hand Gregg a two-year, $10 million contract, meaning he'll be back next season. And regardless of what Buck Showalter says/said in MASN commercials about how the save rule "doesn't carry much weight with [him]," well, that just hasn't proven to be true.

Before joining the O's, Gregg had never been signed to more than a one-year deal. True, he was arbitration eligible until the 2010 season, but even then the Blue Jays signed him as a free agent to a one-year, $2.75 million deal. If the O's had done something similar with Gregg, I doubt many fans would have complained. Sure, he's not a lights-out reliever, but even a rather ordinary reliever can pitch well for one season. And that's basically what Gregg did last season for the Blue Jays: He finished the season with a pitching line of 3.51/3.57/4.05 (ERA/FIP/xFIP), accumulated a WAR of 0.8, and struck out 8.85 batters per nine while walking 4.58 per nine. Again, those aren't fantastic numbers, but they are useful and didn't cost the Jays a ton of money.

So why did the O's overreact and sign Gregg for two years? Maybe they were impressed by the then-32-year-old's 37 saves in 2010. Or maybe they just liked his goggles. Either way, they brought Gregg on board, and he has been terrible. In 52 innings, he has a pitching line of 4.33/5.03/5.01 while also striking out fewer batters (7.27 K/9) and walking way too many (6.23 BB/9). In his career, Gregg has struck out 8.23 per nine and walked 3.97 per nine, so his numbers are obviously down across the board this season. By the way, Gregg has a WAR of -0.4 this season, which is awful. It's also worth noting that in his 52 innings, Gregg has allowed 50 hits and 36 walks, while also hitting a batter. That's a ton of baserunners.

When the O's had both Jim Johnson and Koji Uehara, it was ridiculous to have Gregg saving games, particularly in situations with, say, a one- or two-run lead. Without Uehara and with the O's apparently wanting to stretch Johnson out so he can start at some point this season or next (more on that in a second), there really aren't that many options for the O's to turn to late in games.

But look at last night's win, for example. Zach Britton pitched six innings and then handed the ball off to Jim Johnson with a 3-2 lead. Johnson pitched two spotless innings, and then it was Gregg-in-for-the-save time. First of all, are the O's going to stretch Johnson out, or not? He pitched three innings against the Angels on August 20, and in five appearances since then he's pitched one inning three times and two innings twice. Haven't they decided what to do yet? Second, again, the O's bullpen does not have a bunch of fantastic relievers in it right now, but how can any team rely on Gregg in a one-run game? He's not pitching like someone who Showalter can just throw out there for an inning, especially with such a slim lead. In the ninth inning last night, Gregg nearly blew another save (which would have been his seventh). He allowed a leadoff single but retired the next two batters. He then proceeded to walk the next two to load the bases. Thankfully, he retired Brandon Guyer to end the game, but not after yet another roller-coaster outing.

If Gregg's performance this season hasn't bothered you enough, maybe this quote after the game will:

"The bottom line is you obviously haven’t acquired my taste in pitching yet,” Gregg said. “It’s what I do. It’s what I’ve always done. And yeah, it’d be nice if I was like [Jim Johnson] and went 1-2-3, every inning I’m out there. But I’m not J.J. I don’t throw 97 [mph] with sink.”

It's easy to get mad at Gregg for saying something like this. He's certainly frustrated with how he's pitched this season, even if you can't quite take that thought away from his quote. But in a way, he's right, and I don't mean that as a positive. Sure, Gregg is having his worst season in the majors, and I don't think many people would have thought he'd be just this bad. But for the most part, this is who he is. He likely wasn't going to join the Orioles and transform into some dominant closer; you can't predict that type of thing by just looking at save totals. So it was foolish for the O's to think they could predict what an average pitcher like Gregg would do for a single season, let alone two.

I know one thing, though: I will never acquire Gregg's taste in pitching. He can try to convince fans that he'd prefer to walk guys in order to end up facing someone who he's more confident he can retire, but, frankly, I'm tired of hearing about how he never gives in to opposing hitters and that he continues to nibble when he's down in the count because he's a gambler out there who refuses to give in. Really, he's just not that good, and the O's are relying on him to do more because they made the mistake of paying him to do so.

The reason why the O's are trotting Gregg out there in save opportunity after save opportunity is because they're looking to justify the money they're paying him. It's the same reason why Vladimir Guerrero continues to bat fourth or fifth every game. Maybe the O's don't have a slew of other options to replace either guy, but by refusing to cut their losses, or at the very least adjust, Showalter and/or the front office are hurting the team. And they're upsetting fans.

Guthrie's strong start earns Showalter a win in O's debut

Jeremy Guthrie gave up three runs in seven innings and the O's offense woke up in the sixth inning to score four runs in a 6-3 win over the Angels in Buck Showalter's first game as the team's new manager.

Guthrie served up a two-run homer to Howie Kendrick in the fifth, but he allowed just five hits while striking out two and walking none. Since giving up four runs in 4.2 innings against the Rangers on July 8, Guthrie has been on a roll, allowing just seven combined runs in his last four starts -- a span of 27.2 innings. During that stretch, Guthrie has walked only two batters while striking out 17. His recent improved pitching has also lowered his ERA from 4.77 to 4.21.

On offense, Luke Scott hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning; he also had a double. Matt Wieters, though, may have had the best offensive performance of the night for the O's, finishing 3-3 with a double, two runs batted in, and a run scored. He also walked, allowing him to reach base four times. Felix Pie went 2-3 with two singles; Adam Jones singled and walked; and Josh Bell added a two-run double. Ty Wigginton went 0-2 but did walk twice. At the top of the lineup, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis combined to go 0-8, yet the offense still scored six runs -- not bad, I guess.

As for the Showalter factor, the lineup was pretty much the same, and most things were done by the book. However, he did use the bullpen a little differently and showed some outside-the-box thinking. Here's Dan Connolly explaining the situation:

What interested me most was watching Showalter manage. During the past month, I’ve talked to a bunch of people who have worked under Showalter, and they have all spoken about his preparedness and how he puts his players in a situation to win.

And so I was intrigued by his first real piece of managing: in the ninth inning Tuesday with the Orioles up 6-3. Lefty Michael Gonzalez had already pitched one scoreless inning, and Showalter summoned him to pitch again in the ninth – even though it was a save situation and closer Alfredo Simon was warming up.

Go by the book, and bring in your closer. That’s what every manager I have ever covered would have done. But Showalter left Gonzalez in to face lefty Hideki Matsui, who struck out. Then Showalter stuck with Gonzalez to turn around switch-hitter Alberto Callaspo, and he grounded out.

With one out needed, Showalter called for Simon, even though it was no longer a save situation for the O’s closer. And Simon struck out Howie Kendrick.

Asked about the moves after the game, Showalter said: “The matchup was a lot better. Gonzo, I’ve been watching him throw the ball and talking to [pitching coach Rick Kranitz] and some of the guys. And I liked the switch-hitters turned around. The tough call was Hunter [in the eighth with one on and two outs]. That’s a tie ballgame at worst, though, and we like our chances at home with the last at-bat. Take our chances.”

That’s a guy who is not managing scared.

He followed that up with his best line of the day: “Believe me, I know the save rule and, quite frankly, it doesn’t carry much weight with me. I like the win rule a little bit better.”

Apologies for the long quote, but that's some intriguing stuff right there. I'm all for managers going against the typical bullpen philosophy of simply bringing in the closer in the ninth for a potential save. Now, I'm not a fan of leaving relievers such as Mike Gonzalez in for more than one inning, but Showalter recognized that Gonzalez has been throwing well lately and stuck with the hot hand rather than simply summoning Alfredo Simon in the ninth.

Could the move have backfired? Sure, anything's possible against the Orioles. But the move worked, and that's something that has been hard enough for the O's to find for a long time. I'm not ready to pronounce Showalter the greatest manager ever or anything because of the move, but I am ready to see what he has in store for this team.

O's links: Roberts, Gonzalez, Jones's bubbles

After a 5-4 loss to the Rays yesterday, the Orioles are 30-64. But it's an exciting 30-64! OK, maybe not, but here are some links to keep you occupied:

• Brian Roberts could be back in an O's uniform as early as this weekend. [Orioles.com]
• Michael Gonzalez has been activated from the 60-day DL and will probably be eased back into the closer's role. [Baltimore Sun]
• Something about defending Adam Jones for chewing lots of gum and blowing bubbles during the game. Cowherd's right, it's not really a big deal. Granted, I don't listen to Baltimore sports radio talk or read many O's message boards, but I've never heard anyone complain about Jones's bubble blowing before. I've never even heard Jim Palmer criticize Jones for it. It's more of a, "Hey, Jones caught that ball and blew a bubble at the same time. That was pretty cool." [Kevin Cowherd]
• When Chris Tillman returns from Norfolk, he needs to attack the zone. [Dempsey's Army]
• It wouldn't make much sense to send Brian Matusz to the minors. [Camden Crazies]
• In Dave Cameron's annual Top 50 Trade Value series, two O's made the list: Matt Wieters at No. 33 and Brian Matusz at No. 44. No Julio Lugo for some reason. [FanGraphs]

Gonzalez blows another save as O's fall to 1-3

Mike Gonzalez is struggling right now, but you probably know that already. Before yesterday's O's home opener even started -- during pre-game ceremonies and player introductions -- Gonzalez was booed mightily and was the only player who received a vicious response from the crowd.

Keep in mind, it was April 9, the first home game, and many, if not most, fans have already turned on Gonzalez. If that doesn't tell you that fans are expecting more of this team than in previous years, then nothing will.

Granted, fans were/are booing Gonzalez for mainly two reasons: 1) In three appearances, he's blown two of three saves and in that span has given up five hits, four walks, and four earned runs in only two innings pitched; and 2) the O's signed him to a two-year, $12 million dollar deal in the offseason to solidify the closer's role.

The worst thing about Gonzalez's struggles isn't that he's simply pitching poorly, but also that he seems to have lost confidence in his pitching abilities so early into the season. Matt Wieters went to the mound at least twice to talk to Gonzalez, and Miguel Tejada and Julio Lugo each tried to give Gonzalez some encouraging words while he was in the middle of a difficult inning.

Right now, Gonzalez deserves a few more opportunities to right the ship. And it would probably be nice if the O's could get him into the game with more than a one-run lead at this point to give him a little leeway. However, if he can't straighten things out soon, Jim Johnson should take control of the closer's role. Every team blows save opportunities once in a while, but one of the main reasons Gonzalez was signed by Andy MacPhail in the first place was to prevent this type of thing from consistently happening. If Gonzalez can't get the job done, someone else should be given the chance.

OK, enough about Gonzalez. Honestly, the worst part of the game yesterday -- besides the heart-breaking 7-6 loss, obviously -- was that Brian Roberts suffered an abdominal strain after sliding into second base in the first inning after a stolen base. Watching Lugo inadequately fill Roberts's shoes by going 0-4 made me realize how much Roberts means to this team and how they can ill-afford to lose him for an extended period of time. It's also not a good sign that Roberts, already dealing with back problems, now has another injury concern to worry about.

Also, Gonzalez's blown save made a lot of fans forget how awful Brad Bergesen looked. Bergesen, who lasted just 4.2 innings and threw only 71 pitches before Dave Trembley had seen enough -- allowed five earned runs on eight hits. He also only struck out two Blue Jays, though he did just walk one. He was consistently around the plate but was hit hard more than a few times. I'm willing to give Bergesen the benefit of the doubt, not just because this was his first start of the season, but because his 2009 season ended abruptly with an injury and he hasn't faced Major League hitters in a regular season situation for a while now. Also, two runs scored in the first inning on a long fly ball by John Buck to center field that Adam Jones normally would have caught (the ball bounced off his glove). So if those two runs didn't score, Bergesen may have pitched a little longer and his outing may have looked a little better -- for what it's worth.

By the way, it's a little strange that the O's have played four one-run games to start the season. So they're 1-3, but they've been in each game and could easily be 3-1.

As for hitting numbers, the O's collected seven hits and seven walks. Tejada was the team's offensive star yesterday, going 3-5 with a two-run home run and knocking in four runs. Nick Markakis had a hit and two walks, and Garrett Atkins went 2-4. Cesar Izturis had a walk and a big hit -- an RBI double in the bottom of the eighth that briefly gave the O's the lead. Nolan Reimold and Wieters each went 0-2 but walked twice.

Next game: The O's face the Blue Jays tonight in game two of the series at 7:05. David Hernandez takes the hill against Dana Eveland.

Orioles hold on to get first win of 2010

First off, great win for the O's last night. I didn't have the chance to watch the entire game, but I did make it home in time to watch the end of the game. It looked like Mike Gonzalez might blow another ninth inning lead, but to his credit, he got the job done. But more on the win in a minute.

Man, what an eventful three-game series for Carl Crawford. In the first game, he hit a walkoff double (even though it was really a single) to win the game for the Rays. In the second game of the series, Crawford was involved in a controversial strike-three/check swing call at home plate that led to a double play for the Orioles. The play ended up not mattering much as the Rays still won, but both Crawford and the crowd were not pleased with the home plate umpire.

And if that wasn't enough, Crawford was again right in the middle of another blown call last night (though it again didn't effect the outcome of the game). In the top of the eighth with one out, Matt Wieters hit a sinking line drive to left field. Crawford got a great jump on the ball and lunged forward, snagging the ball right before it hit the ground (view the play here). Watching the play quickly, it's easy to see why the second base umpire (Dana Demuth) thought Crawford trapped the ball against the turf. I'm not going to start rambling on about the use of instant replay only for home run calls, but eventually the use of instant replay needs to be expanded. Seriously, how long would it have taken to watch that video a few times to determine that Crawford did indeed catch the ball? One minute? Maybe two? Again, it was only a single, and the O's didn't score that inning. But isn't it important to get the call right?

Anyway, back to the game. Making his season debut, Brian Matusz had an up-and-down performance. In five innings, he allowed only two earned runs and two hits. But he walked five batters and threw 97 pitches. Then again, he also struck out seven. So, I guess you could say he was effectively wild, though it's never a good idea to average a walk per inning. Still, he admitted that he was a little nervous and noted that his mechanics were off because of it. Matusz did finish strong, striking out four of the last five batters he faced, including striking out the side in the bottom of the fifth.

After Matusz left the game trailing 2-1, the O's went on the attack and pieced together a four-run inning. Nick Markakis led off the inning with a single, and Miguel Tejada followed by getting hit by a pitch on an 0-2 count. Luke Scott then walked to load the bases. Next, Wieters hit a single to center, scoring Markakis, and Tejada scored after that on a wild pitch by reliever Grant Balfour. With runners on second and third, Nolan Reimold struck out swinging, but Garrett Atkins singled to hit, which allowed Scott and Wieters to score. Not a bad rally, and as it turns out, the O's would need all four of those runs.

With Matusz out, the bullpen did an adequate job -- Matt Albers gave up one run in two innings, Will Ohman retired the only batter he faced, Jim Johnson allowed one run in two-thirds of an inning, and Gonzalez pitched a scoreless ninth for the save even though he walked two batters and gave up a hit. It was a George Sherrill-type save for Gonzalez -- a roller-coaster ride to the very end -- but it worked. The only thing missing was a bunch of Orioles flipping up the brim of their hats after it was over.

On offense, the Orioles combined for nine hits and three walks. Brian Roberts, Wieters, and Atkins each went 2-4, with Roberts drawing a walk, Wieters driving in a run, and Atkins driving in two. Reimold scored the game's first run in the top of the third when he homered to left field (watch here). Markakis and Scott each had a hit and a walk. Adam Jones went 0-5 and was somewhat impatient, only seeing 13 pitches. Tejada (11 pitches) and Julio Lugo (13 pitches) were both 0-4, though, as mentioned before, Tejada did reach on a HBP.

For the third straight game, the Orioles didn't commit an error, but since I didn't watch the game, it's hard to tell if there were a few balls that O's fielders didn't get to that maybe they should have. Listening to the radio on the way home, I do remember a play from the bottom of the eighth on a Carlos Pena ground ball to second that could have been turned for a double play but wasn't because of a bobble or something. But B.J. Upton fouled out in the next at bat for the third out, so it didn't hurt the O's.

Overall, O's pitchers walked too many Rays batters (eight times), but they pitched out of jams and got the win. Hopefully they get the walks out of their system, and hopefully Wieters keeps going 2-4 every game. Not likely -- but hey, if anyone can do it, Wieters can.

Next game: O's home opener today against the Blue Jays, 3:05 p.m. Brad Bergesen vs. Brandon Morrow.