O's ship Jeremy Guthrie to Rockies for two pitchers

When Dan Duquette, Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations, traded Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom, he accomplished two things: 1) he made a trade that wasn't absolutely necessary, possibly because it was the "best offer" on the table for Guthrie; and 2) he turned Guthrie, who turns 33 in April and is scheduled to become a free agent after this season, into two slightly younger pitchers who each have two years left of team control.

To clarify the salary info (courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts), Hammel will make $4.75 million this season and will have one final year of arbitration in 2013. Lindstrom will make $3.6 million this season and has a $4 million club option in 2013 with a $0.2 million buyout. But, as ESPN's Buster Olney pointed out yesterday, the trade wasn't really about money:

In the end, Guthrie will make less ($8.2 million) than Hammel and Lindstrom combined (about $8.5m). So the O's aren't saving $ with this.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 6, 2012

I sort of understand the deal from Duquette's perspective. In his first offseason with the O's, he's been concerned with quantity over quality when it comes to upgrading the team's pitching. Duquette hasn't made one major acquisition or signing, choosing instead to bring aboard guys like Wei-Yin Chen, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Dana Eveland. Hammel and Lindstrom should be helpful, but they're not likely to make the team much better than it would have been with Guthrie in the rotation.

It's also not Duquette's fault that Guthrie wasn't traded last season or before then, when his trade value was higher. Andy MacPhail had the opportunity to trade Guthrie a few times and chose to hold onto him instead. It was possible that Guthrie could have netted a couple prospects before the start of 2011 or at the trade deadline. But that didn't happen, and Guthrie remained with the Orioles.

If this truly was the best offer the O's received for Guthrie, they could have done worse. Hammel, who posted consecutive 3.9 WAR seasons in 2009 and 2010, has a chance to rebound on his subpar 2011 season when he struck out fewer batters, walked more batters, and posted a WAR of just 1. For comparison's sake, Guthrie never posted a WAR above 2.6. Pitching in the AL East will be a daunting task for Hammel and Lindstrom, but then again, pitching in Colorado is no walk in the park either. Lindstrom should also provide a decent late-game option out of the bullpen, which is always a bonus for a team that relies on Kevin Gregg to record outs.

It would have been ideal for the O's to acquire some youthful players with more upside, which is something Duquette hasn't done a whole lot of yet. The O's farm system needs all the help it can get. Duquette doesn't have the luxury of dealing with that many trade chips -- there isn't much to work with after Adam Jones or, gasp, Matt Wieters -- but if he's going to make other deals, he should be focused on any kind of high-ceiling prospect instead of an average-ish 29-year-old starter and an almost 32-year-old reliever. Maybe Duquette can trade Hammel or Lindstrom down the road if they perform better than expected, so a couple of prospects could be acquired then. But the O's aren't going to be good this season, whether this trade was completed or not. The goal is to be better a few years down the road, when Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy hopefully blossom into superstars.

For more on Hammel, Lindstrom, and the trade, check out posts at Baseball America, Camden Crazies, and FanGraphs.

Changes coming to right-field wall at Camden Yards

The Orioles haven't necessarily had an overly productive offseason, but few fans can complain about the planned renovations for Camden Yards next year to honor the stadium's 20th anniversary. The major news -- the addition of six statues to honor the O's current Hall of Famers (Frank Robinson, Brooks Robinson, Earl Weaver, Jim Palmer, Eddie Murray, and Cal Ripken Jr.) -- was announced in November and is arguably something that should have been completed a while ago.

But some more recent renovation news, according to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun, is that the O's are planning to alter the right-field wall. Connolly elaborates:

The flag-court wall in right, which is on top of the out-of-town scoreboard, will be altered. Basically, the wall portion that protects fans that stand there will be removed and be replaced by a railing. That way shorter people – and, specifically, kids – will have a better view of the field of play while standing on the flag court.

Makes plenty of sense. However, that means more balls may end up flying out for homers instead of bouncing off the top of the wall for doubles or long singles. I’m not sure exactly how many fly balls it will affect, but I’ll keep an eye on it next year.

Connolly mentions the possibility of a ball hitting the railing, but the O's aren't sure at the moment whether to make the ball in that scenario in-play or out-of-play (probably the latter).

I think the change is a good idea. If you've ever tried to watch part of the game while standing behind the wall or on the concourse, it's sort of difficult, especially if there's a lot of people (so, basically Yankees and Red Sox games). The move also seems to be rather kid-friendly, which is just fine.

For what it's' worth, Jeremy Guthrie had a pretty funny take on the wall being lowered:

More on Wieters's power surge

Behind Jeremy Guthrie's strong start (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 10 K, 3 BB), the Orioles beat the Rays again last night, this time 6-2. The O's scored all of their runs via the long ball -- a line-drive solo shot by Nolan Reimold, a three-run bomb by Chris Davis, and a two-run blast by Matt Wieters.

The Wieters home run is particularly noteworthy for three reasons:

1) It was his third homer in three games, and it gives him 20 on the season. It also raises his slugging percentage to .449, which is top five among qualified catchers.

2) He hit the bomb off of Matt Moore, who many analysts and scouts consider to be the best pitching prospect in baseball.

3) It highlights just how well Wieters is hitting against left-handed pitching this season. Take a look:

vs. RH: 367 PA, .231/.283/.365
vs. LH: 133 PA, .348/.429/.696

So that's a little weird, especially since his career splits aren't that crazy.

Career vs. RH: 974 PA, .264/.325/.397
Career vs. LH: 410 PA, .267/.327/.453

Much of that jump in slugging percentage against left-handers is because of his performance this season, so it remains to be seen whether it's legitimate or sort of fluky. I'd probably lean towards fluky, especially since Wieters has a .400 BABIP against lefties and a .243 BABIP against righties this season.

Regardless, Wieters is on a roll lately, and it's never a bad thing to hit for more power.

What exactly do the O's expect for Guthrie?

MLB's non-waiver deadline is July 31, so the Orioles still have two days to trade Jeremy Guthrie, Koji Uehara, or anyone else they deem worthy of a deal. And even though it can make sense to wait until the last few hours to make a deal -- other teams that are bidding against each other may get desperate and overpay -- I can't help but get the feeling that the O's are asking for too much in return for some of their players. And then I read the following on Roch Kubatko's latest School of Roch post:

The Tigers and Indians remain serious suitors for Guthrie. The Orioles need a major-league ready arm. They'd love a first base prospect.

They won't dump Guthrie and be left with another gaping hole in their rotation, but the offers might have sweetened tonight.

If the O's are trying to fool teams into thinking they absolutely won't deal Guthrie or Uehara unless a major-league ready arm or premium first-base prospect is included in the deal, that's fine, I guess. But if they really think one of those will be thrown in, they're fooling themselves.

Guthrie is a slightly above average starter, and he's under team control (last arbitration year) for one more season. He's making $5.75 million this season, so unless he completely falls apart the rest of this season, he'll receive a raise. Uehara's case is a little different: He's making only $3 million this season and has a $4 million vesting option for 2012. Guthrie is slightly more valuable because of the amount of innings he throws (he's a starter, after all), but when factoring in the money owed to each and how well Uehara has been pitching, there's not an enormous difference in their values. Some team might actually pay more for a lights-out reliever like Uehara rather than a decent starter like Guthrie. Again, it all depends on which teams are serious about trading.

Guess what, though? The O's are 42-60. Guthrie has aided their weak rotation this year, and without him the O's would be worse. But they wouldn't be that much worse that they should consider holding onto him just because they aren't overwhelmed with a significant trade offer. That doesn't mean the O's should give him away for nothing, but he should be dealt. This situation is similar to their decision to keep Luke Scott at the height of his trade value instead of getting a decent prospect or two in return. And look how that's turned out.

So what should the O's expect in return for Guthrie? A Dempsey's Army post by Donovan Moore tackled that very topic on July 21:

[I]n order to break even any potential trade for Guthrie, the Orioles would need to get back a Grade B hitter ($5.5M) + a Grade C pitcher 22 or younger ($2.1M). Given MacPhail’s affinity for pitching prospects, maybe he would look to get back a Grade B pitcher ($7.3M) + a Grade C hitter 23 or older ($0.5). These would be instances where the Orioles set themselves up to break even on a deal for Guthrie—but if offered anything more than these examples, they should definitely jump right on it.

I encourage you to check out the whole post for the tables and rationale on why the O's need to deal Guthrie now.

O's hold on for 3-1 win over Rays

After a relatively stress-free opening day win over the Rays yesterday (thanks to Jeremy Guthrie's outstanding pitching performance), the Orioles survived a potential game-winning (or at least tying) hit because of a spectacular game-saving catch by Nick Markakis.

With the O's leading 3-1, the Rays had runners on first and second with two outs in the ninth. Ben Zobrist hit a deep fly ball to right field, but Markakis -- and his glove -- seemingly appeared out of nowhere to snatch the ball before it hit the wall. Markakis then smashed into the wall and took a moment or two before revealing to the umpires that yes, he did in fact make the catch. Thanks to Markakis, Brian Roberts's three-run homer in the eighth inning, and a solid start by Chris Tillman, the O's move to 2-0.

Tillman threw six no-hit, shutout innings in place of the now-injured Brian Matusz. Tillman was, in a sense, wildly effective (three walks), but he also struck out five and kept hitters off balance with a powerful fastball and filthy change-up.

After Tillman left the scoreless game, Jeremy Accardo took over and retired the first two batters he faced. Then, though, things got a little dicey. B.J. Upton singled and stole second, and Matt Joyce was walked intentionally. Kelly Shoppach followed with a single to left field. But Felix Pie, who had just entered the game as a pinch-runner for Luke Scott that same inning, threw a bullet to Matt Wieters to nail Upton at home. Wieters blocked the plate brilliantly and applied the tag on Upton in time, keeping the game tied.

The next inning, despite leading 3-0 after the Roberts home run, the bullpen continued to live dangerously. Mike Gonzalez relieved Accardo and walked consecutive batters before retiring Johnny Damon. Koji Uehara then came in and got the final two outs of the inning, but not before allowing an RBI single to Manny Ramirez. Still, at least Uehara pounded the strike zone -- seven of his eight pitches were strikes.

Holding that 3-1 lead in the ninth, Kevin Gregg was sent in to get the save. Upton led off with a single, and then Joyce grounded into a fielder's choice (which sure looked like a double play on replay). Gregg then walked Shoppach before getting a strike out and the huge defensive play by Markakis to end the game.

I'm going to preface what I'm about to say with this: Yes, it was just one game, and there's no sense in overreacting, especially since the O's did win. Fans know what they're going to get out of Gregg. He's never been a shut-down closer/reliever, and he's going to have some roller-coaster saves, along with some blown saves as well. That's who he is. As for Gonzalez, though, he started last season out on a rocky note, blowing two saves in his first three appearances with the O's. The O's are desperately going to need him to be effective, particularly if he's going to be the only left-handed reliever in the bullpen (which I don't think will last very long, for what it's worth). Gonzalez deserves the opportunity to overcome a bad outing or two, as do most of the players since the season just started. But if he keeps having difficulty throwing strikes and handing out free passes to opposing hitters, the bullpen as a collective unit is in trouble.

Sorry for the negative spiel after such an exciting win. The starting pitching and defense to start the season have been great, and I'm definitely looking forward to watching Zach Britton make his major league debut tomorrow.

O's avoid arbitration with four; two remain

During the last few days, the Orioles agreed to terms (and avoided arbitration) with four of their six arbitration-eligible players. Here are those players, the salary they were paid last year, and the salary they will make in 2011, via Orioles Insider:

Adam Jones: $465,000, $3.25 million
Jim Johnson: $440,000, $975,000
Felix Pie: $420,000, $985,000
J.J. Hardy: $5.1 million, $5.85 million

Jeremy Guthrie and Luke Scott have yet to reach an agreement with the O's, but each will likely sign shortly.

Guthrie's strong start earns Showalter a win in O's debut

Jeremy Guthrie gave up three runs in seven innings and the O's offense woke up in the sixth inning to score four runs in a 6-3 win over the Angels in Buck Showalter's first game as the team's new manager.

Guthrie served up a two-run homer to Howie Kendrick in the fifth, but he allowed just five hits while striking out two and walking none. Since giving up four runs in 4.2 innings against the Rangers on July 8, Guthrie has been on a roll, allowing just seven combined runs in his last four starts -- a span of 27.2 innings. During that stretch, Guthrie has walked only two batters while striking out 17. His recent improved pitching has also lowered his ERA from 4.77 to 4.21.

On offense, Luke Scott hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning; he also had a double. Matt Wieters, though, may have had the best offensive performance of the night for the O's, finishing 3-3 with a double, two runs batted in, and a run scored. He also walked, allowing him to reach base four times. Felix Pie went 2-3 with two singles; Adam Jones singled and walked; and Josh Bell added a two-run double. Ty Wigginton went 0-2 but did walk twice. At the top of the lineup, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis combined to go 0-8, yet the offense still scored six runs -- not bad, I guess.

As for the Showalter factor, the lineup was pretty much the same, and most things were done by the book. However, he did use the bullpen a little differently and showed some outside-the-box thinking. Here's Dan Connolly explaining the situation:

What interested me most was watching Showalter manage. During the past month, I’ve talked to a bunch of people who have worked under Showalter, and they have all spoken about his preparedness and how he puts his players in a situation to win.

And so I was intrigued by his first real piece of managing: in the ninth inning Tuesday with the Orioles up 6-3. Lefty Michael Gonzalez had already pitched one scoreless inning, and Showalter summoned him to pitch again in the ninth – even though it was a save situation and closer Alfredo Simon was warming up.

Go by the book, and bring in your closer. That’s what every manager I have ever covered would have done. But Showalter left Gonzalez in to face lefty Hideki Matsui, who struck out. Then Showalter stuck with Gonzalez to turn around switch-hitter Alberto Callaspo, and he grounded out.

With one out needed, Showalter called for Simon, even though it was no longer a save situation for the O’s closer. And Simon struck out Howie Kendrick.

Asked about the moves after the game, Showalter said: “The matchup was a lot better. Gonzo, I’ve been watching him throw the ball and talking to [pitching coach Rick Kranitz] and some of the guys. And I liked the switch-hitters turned around. The tough call was Hunter [in the eighth with one on and two outs]. That’s a tie ballgame at worst, though, and we like our chances at home with the last at-bat. Take our chances.”

That’s a guy who is not managing scared.

He followed that up with his best line of the day: “Believe me, I know the save rule and, quite frankly, it doesn’t carry much weight with me. I like the win rule a little bit better.”

Apologies for the long quote, but that's some intriguing stuff right there. I'm all for managers going against the typical bullpen philosophy of simply bringing in the closer in the ninth for a potential save. Now, I'm not a fan of leaving relievers such as Mike Gonzalez in for more than one inning, but Showalter recognized that Gonzalez has been throwing well lately and stuck with the hot hand rather than simply summoning Alfredo Simon in the ninth.

Could the move have backfired? Sure, anything's possible against the Orioles. But the move worked, and that's something that has been hard enough for the O's to find for a long time. I'm not ready to pronounce Showalter the greatest manager ever or anything because of the move, but I am ready to see what he has in store for this team.

O's win in Roberts's return

It took longer than expected, but Brian Roberts finally made it back to Baltimore. And though Roberts went 0-4 in his first game back, Jeremy Guthrie picked up the offense's subpar performance (three runs on seven hits and no walks) by giving up just two earned runs in seven strong innings.

Guthrie allowed six hits while striking out six and walking none to earn his fourth win. The two Twins runs came on a two-run homer by Joe Mauer in the sixth. Will Ohman, David Hernandez, and Alfredo Simon combined to pitch the final two scoreless innings, with Simon earning his 14th save on the season.

Luke Scott stayed red-hot since coming off the disabled list by collecting two more hits, including a two-run home run in the bottom of the sixth to give the O's a 3-2 lead (also the final score).

Playing without Nick Markakis, who got the night off, the O's seemed rather impatient at the plate -- except for Roberts, who saw a team-high 24 pitches in four at-bats. In four at-bats of his own, Miguel Tejada saw just 11 pitches (though he did have two hits and scored two runs). Adam Jones, Felix Pie, Craig Tatum, and Corey Patterson all didn't do a particularly good job of working the count either.

But, hey, on this night, because of Guthrie, three runs was good enough.

-----

To make room on the roster for Roberts, the O's designated Scott Moore for assignment. While speculating about potential roster moves the other day, I figured the O's would cut ties with Julio Lugo before getting rid of Moore.

In actuality, this isn't a big deal. Moore could easily clear waivers, and if he does so he could go back to Norfolk and return to Baltimore at a later point in the season. Or maybe another team will take a chance on him.

Anyway, here was Juan Samuel's quote on the move:

"We wanted to keep somebody who would give us a hand at short, and [Julio] Lugo was that guy," interim manager Juan Samuel said. "We talked to Scotty Moore and he understood that situation."

Samuel's right; Moore can't really play shortstop well enough at such a high level. But Cesar Izturis's name is in the lineup every day; why can't Tejada fill in for Izturis at that position once in a while? Is it really worth keeping Lugo around just for that purpose, especially since Roberts is back now to play second base?

At this point in his career, Lugo is a 34-year-old utility player without the ability to get on base often or hit for much power. He doesn't hold that much value on an American League roster, though his speed does come in handy occasionally late in games. And while Moore isn't necessarily that much better than Lugo, he is younger (26) and is still someone who can play multiple positions (first, second, and third).

Again, it's really not a big deal. But some of the moves the O's make baffle me at times. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Another poor offensive performance, another loss

The Orioles (1-6) wasted another decent start by Jeremy Guthrie -- seven innings pitched, eight hits, three earned runs -- and dropped their fourth game in a row (all at home) after a 5-1 loss to the Rays. Matt Garza threw eight strong innings, giving up only one run, and earned his second victory over the Orioles in this young season.

Garza allowed just six hits, with the O's lone run coming on a leadoff home run by Felix Pie. The Orioles had a couple of chances to score -- in the second and seventh innings -- but again couldn't put together another hit or two to put more runs on the scoreboard.

With the O's ahead 1-0 in the second, Matt Wieters led off with an infield single, and Luke Scott followed with a single of his own to right field. Unfortunately, Garrett Atkins came up next and hit a ground ball right to the shortstop for a double play. And in a sentence that will probably be repeated numerous times this season, Julio Lugo then struck out to end the threat.

In the seventh (the Orioles are trailing 3-1 at this point), with one out and Scott on first after a walk, Atkins hit a shot into the left center field gap, but the ball was caught on an outstanding running play by Carl Crawford. So with two outs, Ty Wigginton, pinch-hitting for Lugo, hit a flare to short right field that fell in for a single. With runners on first and second with two outs, Nolan Reimold was sent to the plate to pinch-hit for Cesar Izturis -- makes sense, right? Reimold, though, never got a chance to swing the bat -- on a ball in the dirt that got away from the catcher for a moment, Wigginton took off for second. There was just one problem: Scott stayed put. Wigginton was easily caught in a rundown, ending yet another scoring opportunity. Who does Wigginton think he is? Melvin Mora?

Pie, as stated before, led the O's offense attack with his solo home run. He also singled and walked. Jones, Wieters, Scott, and Wigginton each had a hit, and Scott and Wieters both drew walks. Nick Markakis went 0-3 and is now hitting .143, but he did walk again. And Miguel Tejada went 0-4 and saw just nine pitches in those at bats -- not exactly the kind of performance the O's are looking for from their cleanup hitter.

The Orioles have now scored just 20 runs in seven games. Get well soon, Brian Roberts.

By the way, if the team's recent play isn't bad enough, the 9,129 fans in attendance at Camden Yards tonight broke the "record" for the smallest crowd in the stadium's 19 seasons. Awesome.

O's drop to 0-2 as late rally falls short

Another game, another 4-3 loss to the Rays. This time, though, it was the Orioles who rallied in the ninth -- scoring a run on a Garrett Atkins ground rule double to cut the lead to 4-3 -- but Brian Roberts flied out to center field with two outs and Felix Pie, the tying run, on third base.

As if the Orioles needed another lesson in how important it is to add to a lead late in a game, the Rays, and particularly Evan Longoria, demonstrated that perfectly when Longoria homered in the bottom of the eighth to give the Rays a two-run lead (4-2). That run proved to be the difference as closer Rafael Soriano again had an adventurous ninth inning (two hits, one earned run).

However, the story of the game was the tremendous start by Matt Garza. Garza threw 114 pitches in eight strong innings, allowing just four hits and one earned run while striking out nine and walking only two. Garza's most effective pitch last night was his overpowering fastball, but he also efficiently mixed several sliders and curveballs into his attack to keep O's batters off balance.

For the second straight game, Rays pitchers held Roberts (0-5) hitless, demonstrating that one of the best ways to prevent the Orioles from scoring a bunch of runs is to keep Roberts from getting on base -- no easy task. After battling back from a back injury and a stomach illness, Roberts predictably looks a little rusty and will probably need a few games to get back in the swing of things (sorry for the pun).

O's hitters collected just six hits and two walks and left seven runners on base. Matt Wieters had the only multi-hit game for the O's, going 2-4 with two singles. Wieters also reached on an error in the first inning that allowed Nick Markakis to score all the way from second. The other hits -- all singles besides Atkins's double in the ninth -- belonged to Adam Jones (1-4), Miguel Tejada (1-3, one RBI, one HBP), and Nolan Reimold (1-4). Luke Scott seemed to struggle the most at the plate against Garza, going 0-4 and striking out three times.

In terms of pitching and defense, the O's were pretty solid again. Jeremy Guthrie gave up three earned runs in 6.1 innings, striking out six and walking two. Similar to Kevin Millwood's first start, Guthrie cruised in the first few innings and started to struggle around the fourth and fifth. Will Ohman was effective for the second straight game, retiring all three batters he faced. However, Cla Meredith, who relieved Ohman, gave up the eventual deciding run when he allowed Longoria's solo home run in the eighth. The O's also didn't make any errors and turned two double plays (more on one of them in a second).

This game was well-played for the most part, but it had a couple of moments that reminded me of the O's from last season. In the bottom of the fifth, on a Carl Crawford ground ball to first, Atkins fielded the ball and then oddly enough ran into Guthrie, who was trying to cover first on the play. Fortunately for the O's, Crawford overran the base, allowing Atkins the chance to flip the ball to Roberts for the out. That play wasn't really anyone's fault, but it's easy to see why Atkins isn't necessarily a natural at first base.

Another odd play took place in the bottom of the seventh and again involved Crawford. With a 3-2 count, Crawford appeared to check his swing at a ball low and away and headed down to first base. Home plate umpire Kerwin Danley was convinced that Crawford swung at the ball -- replays showed he clearly did not -- and called him out instead of motioning to the third base umpire for help. But that wasn't all; Reid Brignac, who was on first at the time after a single, figured that Crawford had walked and started to go down to second base. Wieters, who obviously was paying attention since he was in the middle of the action, fired the ball down to second for the double play. Crawford, who still didn't know what had really happened and was basically to first base at this point, proceeded to throw a mini-temper tantrum and actually threw his helmet, yet he was able to stay in the game. Maybe Danley realized he had made an awful call and decided not to make the situation any worse by throwing Crawford out of the game. Rays fans, obviously more than a little unhappy with the call and ensuing double play, decided to boo Danley for the rest of the game, which was funny for a few minutes but got old fast. Now if that's not Orioles baseball, I don't know what is.

The O's fell to 0-2 with the loss but shouldn't feel too bad about themselves since they've been close to wins in both games. The O's can salvage the series a bit with a win tonight when Brian Matusz faces Jeff Niemann.

Weekly Rundown: Citi Field, Andre Woodson, Guthrie

Weekly Rundown is a combination of links and brief comments on stories and topics that I couldn't get to during the week. If there's something important that I missed, don't hesitate to send an email or leave a comment.

• Thomas Boswell on the Orioles:
  

  
  After years of meddling, owner Peter Angelos has gotten out of the way. Now, if the front office spots a David Ortiz released by the Twins, his signing won't be nixed so David Segui can stay at first base. If the Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell trade is offered to the O's with Larry Bigbie the biggest piece Florida would get in return, no one will kill the idea and let the Red Sox jump on it.
  
  Now MacPhail decides. But how much can he spend? No one knows yet.
  
  "We need a big bopper in the middle of the order and a veteran starter to stabilize all our young pitchers," said one veteran Oriole.
  
  "Grow pitching. Buy bats," responded MacPhail.
  

  
  He also talks about how difficult it is for the O's to compete in the AL East. It's nothing new or surprising, but it's still a good read. [Washington Post]


• Citi Field, the Mets' stadium that hasn't even been open for a full season yet, is apparently falling apart. That's not good. [Bugs & Cranks]


• Here's what happened after Prince Fielder's game-winning home run against the Giants yesterday in the bottom of the 12th:
  
  
  
  
  I wouldn't be surprised if his teammates weren't acting -- Fielder may actually be that powerful. [Larry Brown Sports]


• John Feinstein on Daniel Snyder amid the whole "ticket scandal" thing:
  

  
  All of that said, a lot of people in this town have gotten pretty tired of Dan Snyder’s act. He’s owned the team for 10 years and, like any owner, would be forgiven pretty much anything if the team was winning. But after being a truly great franchise from 1982 to 1992, the Redskins have won two playoff games since Snyder bought the team. Every year he spends huge money on free agents because he loves having his picture taken with them and bragging about how rich he is to other owners and then, because all the team’s cap money is spent on a half-dozen players, the Redskins usually fold somewhere along the way when the inevitable injuries that hit every team hit them because they have no depth. Hearing Joe Gibbs talk about injuries during his four year return as coach almost moved people to tears. The Redskins, it appeared, were the only NFL team that EVER had an injured player.
  
  While Snyder has spent big money on big names, he has done everything in his power to make every possible dollar. Some call this good business; others call this ripping off a public that adores the team. He’s jammed more seats—many of them obstructed—into the stadium, upped prices every chance he gets, charged outrageous ($35) prices for parking and tried a few years ago to more or less blackmail club seat holders into renewing with years left on their contract at twice the price by threatening to raise prices even more if one didn’t renew instantly. A lot of people—I was one of them—didn’t take him up on it.
  
  At the same time that Snyder was paying $107 million for Albert Haynesworth this winter, he was laying off office employees. Again, fans will forgive that if Haynesworth produces and the Redskins win. Winning will get you forgiven for just about anything.
  

  
  Feinstein's right -- if the Redskins win, no one will care about the owner. However, it is getting a little tough to stomach his act of nickel-and-diming fans at every turn. [Feinstein on the Brink]


• Clinton Portis and John Riggins just can't get along. [Hogs Haven]


• A remote-control airplane interrupted a Diamondbacks-Dodgers game last Tuesday night. Matt Kemp on the airshow/distraction: "That was tight, I liked that." [Big League Stew]


• Dan Steinberg presents a rational assessment of the Redskins ticket controversy. [D.C. Sports Bog]


• Chase Daniel opted to join the New Orleans Saints' practice squad, so the Redskins have signed former Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson. [Redskins Insider]


• Kelly Dwyer thinks that Gilbert Arenas is the top second-round draft pick of the last decade. [Ball Don't Lie]


• Jeremy Guthrie has been pretty good lately, and his performance yesterday -- seven shutout innings -- was no different. [Camden Crazies]

Guthrie back on track?

The Orioles haven't had much to play for lately, but with 35 games remaining, the O's can (among other things): give their young pitchers more major league innings; take a look at Michael Aubrey; allow Felix Pie to get some regular at bats; evaluate Luke Scott at first base; and provide some more time behind the plate to Matt Wieters.

But besides the O's youth, Jeremy Guthrie is also trying to take advantage of the rest of the season -- at least when he's pitching against AL Central teams. After an ugly start on August 16 against the Angels when he allowed seven runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings, Guthrie has pitched two impressive games in a row.

Last Friday he allowed one run and six hits over seven innings in a win over the White Sox, and yesterday he similarly gave up one run and six hits over seven innings in a win over the Twins. Guthrie struck out five and walked none -- his first start without walking a batter since June 10. With those last two starts, Guthrie has lowered his ERA from 5.66 to 5.26.

So what has changed? For one, Guthrie kept the ball in the ballpark better against the White Sox and Twins, allowing just a solo shot to Jim Thome. (Guthrie has allowed the second-most home runs in the majors (29).) Guthrie was also able to finish off some batters when he was ahead in the count, which is something he's struggled with the entire season.

I hope that Guthrie is slowly returning to his 2007 and 2008 form, but to continue his string of good starts he'll have to shut down the powerful Yankees offense at Camden Yards on Monday.

O's offense still struggling

It's easy to point a finger at the Orioles pitching staff and blame them for much of the team's struggles this season. Jeremy Guthrie has certainly had a down year, but even though the rookie pitchers have taken their lumps at one point or another -- and surely will continue to do so for the rest of the season -- they've kept the O's in many games.

Meanwhile, with more than one-fourth of the season remaining, the O's offense is currently ranked 12th in the American League in runs scored (516), ahead of only Seattle and Kansas City. The offense also ranks fifth in batting average (.268), ninth in on-base percentage (.331), 11th in slugging (.412), 11th in OPS (.743), 10th in total bases (1600), 11th in home runs (109), and sixth in doubles (211). The O's have combined to strike out the second fewest times in the AL (683), but they're also 11th in walks (350). The O's also aren't very good at playing small ball: They have the worst stolen-base percentage (67 percent) in the AL, are last in sacrifice bunts (9), and are generally a bad baserunning team. So, maybe it's not really shocking that a team that doesn't hit for a ton of power, doesn't walk much, and doesn't take the extra base can't seem to string several high-scoring games together.

To compare, last year the O's were a little better on offense. They finished eighth in runs (782), eighth in OBP (.333), fifth in slugging (.429), eighth in OPS (.762), fifth in total bases (2384), seventh in home runs (172), and fourth in doubles (322). They finished fifth in fewest strikeouts (990) and ninth in walks (533). Their stolen-base percentage was slightly better (69 percent), and they sacrificed more, though only 27 times.

So what exactly has changed? Let's take a look (batters placed in order of at bats):

I know that I didn't include every player or at bat from this year's or last year's teams, but it is interesting to see how much better Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff were last season -- and how bad Jay Payton was. Markakis and Roberts have also regressed a bit, but Adam Jones and Luke Scott have had better seasons so far. Nolan Reimold has been a welcome addition to the lineup, and he may possess the best batting eye on the team. Matt Wieters's numbers also figure to improve in the near future.

With the 2008 versions of Mora and Huff, though, the O's offense this year would have been significantly better. Still, they'll both probably be gone next season, so the Orioles could definitely be looking for some corner infielders in the free agent market.

Some O's fans are frustrated

Rather than analyze what appears to be another Orioles loss tonight, this time against the Braves, I figured I'd post a couple of comments I made today on Roch Kubatko's MASN blog in response to some odd suggestions from a couple of O's fans on what the team should do to get out of its current funk.

Feel free to chime in if you agree, disagree, or have a comment of your own.

First comment:

"Matt K. said:

After reading some of these comments, it's pretty evident how fickle so many Orioles fans are. Someone suggested hitting Roberts 9th and Andino 1st -- really, that's the solution? Actually, that's a perfect way for Trembley to get fired -- to make a whole bunch of snap decisions that don't make sense.

Another person suggested trading Guthrie for a third baseman -- well, what kind of trade value does he have right now with an ERA around 5.50? What kind of player would that get the O's?

As unfortunate as it is, teams go through slumps. I know the Orioles are 10 games below .500 now, but sit back and relax: the team is improving. Wieters is starting to feel more comfortable at the plate, and Reimold has been better than most O's fans could hope for, especially after watching Felix Pie for the first part of the season.

The pitching staff is getting younger and better, and that's not even counting the top pitching prospects that should be on the way within a year or so. So what if Roberts, Jones, Markakis, Huff, and Mora are underperforming a bit? The O's front office knows what it has in those guys, and they will turn it around sooner or later -- they're too talented not to. It's a shame that they're all struggling at the same time, but they will break out of it.

The worst thing to do would be to overreact and make poor choices now. Hey, Marco Scutaro is playing well this season, let's trade Markakis for him!"

A response to my comment, with a comment of my own following that:

"AnotherBrian said:
Matt K.,

I put Andino first because he's actually been hitting decent lately. Also, he's a base-stealing threat. What is your definition of a leadoff guy? A guy who gets on base and can steal second? Yeah.

I put Roberts 9th because although he hasn't been hitting lately, it takes pressure off of him. It also allows Mora and Weiters to see a few more pitches since teams will be trying to get them out before Roberts gets up. I wouldn't expect Roberts to be batting 4th-6th because I don't view him as a power guy as much as Huff, Scott, Jones, and Reimold.

There's nothing 'fickle' about that. It doesn't follow the set-in-stone ways of people like you who have one view on how things should be, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't work. This wasn't the 'what would Matt K. do' question.

I wonder if you think Walker should still be in the bullpen because it was a fickle move to get rid of him after he had a couple bad outings? I mean, he has had a history of success. Why change anything?

-----

(My response:) How is there not anything fickle about moving Andino into the leadoff spot and moving Roberts 9th? So Andino has been in a bit of a good stretch -- so what? He's hitting .254, and he has 1 stolen base in 2 attempts. And in 207 career at bats, his on-base percentage is .260. Granted, that's not a huge sample size, but that's not exactly tiny either. He's an 8th or 9th place hitter, and putting him in the leadoff spot for anything other than a game or two would make little sense.

On the other hand, Roberts is hitting .284 and hits plenty of doubles. He also gets on base a lot -- his career OBP is .355. His walks are down a bit, but he's still getting on base at an effective rate. Even if he's had a bad stretch, he's still the guy the O's want at the top of the lineup; why move him to the 9th spot, and how exactly does that take the pressure off of him if every time he has a slump he has to worry about being moved down? And also, if he's doing so bad as to be hitting 9th, why would other teams be concerned about hurrying up and getting the hitters before him out before he comes up? That logic doesn't make any sense.

There's no reason for you to get angry about what I said, and it's not just the way "only Matt K. thinks." If you ran a poll, maybe 1 percent of O's fans would choose Andino to hit leadoff over Roberts. That's not just what I think, it's a fact; Roberts is a much, much better hitter than Andino.

Walker is a completely different case altogether. He turns 38 on July 1st, and he wasn't effective at all last year. I didn't even think he'd make the team out of spring training and was shocked when he did. I do think the O's need to make a change here or there, but what's the point in overreacting and messing with the whole roster? The O's have a plan, and Roberts, Markakis, Jones, etc. are all in it. Moving them up and down the order just because the O's have been losing lately wouldn't change much, especially if you buy into the fact that batters' placement in the order doesn't matter a whole lot. I think it matters some, but obviously you think it is extremely important. I guess we'll just agree to disagree."

Another response to my first comment, with my comments again after:

"Malignant said:
Matt K wrote: 'Another person suggested trading Guthrie for a third baseman -- well, what kind of trade value does he have right now with an ERA around 5.50? What kind of player would that get the O's?'

I assume you're directing that towards me? The answer is, plenty. Not what you may have gotten last year, but he's got enough of a track record that you get one premium prospect and a couple of lower tier prospects. Easily. Whether or not there's a 3rd base prospect out there on a contending team, I don't know without doing research. The point is, this teams NEEDS a 3rd baseman for the future.

-----

(My response:) Really, a team would give up a premium prospect right now for Jeremy Guthrie? Look, I like Guthrie, but there's something wrong with him lately. His walks and strikeouts are about the same percentage as last year, but he's giving up way more home runs, plus opposing batters are hitting .291 off of him. For the Guthrie of last season, I'm sure the Orioles could have gotten back a nice prospect or two, but now, I'm not so sure. If it was possible, I guess that would be a smart move, but I don't know.

By the way, the Orioles don't just need a third baseman for the future -- how about potential starters at the rest of the infield positions, not counting catcher, of course. Snyder could work at first base, I guess, but second base (after Roberts is gone) and shortstop are question marks right now.

I know what you're trying to say, but it's hard to get another team to part with a potential solid player for players that aren't performing that well. What is Guthrie really worth at this point?"

Again, it's not a real big deal that there are some strange opinions out there on what the Orioles should or shouldn't be doing, but I thought these two were particularly odd.

Guthrie's struggles continue

Jeremy Guthrie hasn't looked right this season, and that trend didn't change last night in an 11-4 loss to the Yankees. Guthrie gave up five runs (and three home runs in back-to-back-to-back fashion) in seven innings, so he wasn't terrible. But he walked more batters than he struck out (three to two), and his record on the season fell to 3-4.

Guthrie's 5.37 ERA looks pretty bad considering his last two seasons with the O's when his ERA totals were 3.70 and 3.63, respectively. It doesn't look particularly horrible when comparing it to the rest of the pitching staff, though Koji Uehara (4.34 ERA) is pitching better than Guthrie, Brad Bergesen (5.35 ERA) has been OK, and Rich Hill looked pretty good in his Orioles debut.

But back to Guthrie: His strikeouts are down (5.20 K/9 down from 6.31 and 5.66), his walks are up (3.19 BB/9 up from 2.41 and 2.74), his home runs allowed are up (1.84 HR/9 up from 1.18 and 1.13), and opponents are hitting for a better average against him than before (.277 BAA up from .250 and .247). (Random question: Is it possible that pitching in the World Baseball Classic before the season has affected Guthrie a bit?)

Also, Guthrie only has one start this year in which he's allowed fewer than three runs: April 11 against Tampa Bay -- 6 IP, 0 ER.

Now, all, or most, Orioles fans know that pitching help seems to be available in the minors, and many of the young guys will be up in the next year or two. But for right now, Guthrie's struggles are certainly concerning, especially when he's supposed to be the ace of the staff.

Trembley's got jokes

After a poor performance earlier today in a spring training game against the Florida Marlins, Jeremy Guthrie received a little bit of Dave Trembley-style humor:

Jeremy Guthrie allowed six runs in the first inning, returned to the dugout and was congratulated by manager Dave Trembley.

"He told me, 'Nice job. We blocked the extra point after the touchdown.'"

Guthrie didn't have one of his best performances, but that's fine because it's spring training. And, according to this box score, Guthrie apparently walked 22 batters. Somewhere Daniel Cabrera is confused that this is possible (it's not).

But looking at the rest of the box score, which I'm assuming is actually correct, I get the feeling that the Orioles are going to be in a lot of games like this during the season. Obviously that's no huge revelation, and a potential rotation of Guthrie, Koji Uehara, Adam Eaton, and two of Mark Hendrickson, Rich Hill, Alfredo Simon, and Hayden Penn could very well end up being the worst rotation in the majors. Nonetheless, there's a lot of young and exciting talent both on the major league club and in the organization, so no matter how poorly certain pitchers perform this year, things are still getting better.

But for this season, a lot of high-scoring games certainly appear to be on the horizon.

On a different, and much lighter, note, I'd like to commend Roch Kubatko, who is covering the Orioles in spring training right now, for going to work every single day and providing tremendous coverage of the team. Even while battling a cold today, Kubatko did a great job, as usual, and still offered some solid insight throughout the day.

Examining the 2008 Orioles' season

Now that the 2008 MLB regular season has come to an end, the Orioles have finished in last place for the first time since 1988.

Finishing in last place is never a good thing, but the Orioles do happen to play in one of the best, if not the best, division in MLB -- the AL East.

The AL East was one of two divisions in baseball with four teams -- the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays -- that finished at least 10 games above .500. The other division was the NL Central, with the Cubs, Brewers, Astros, and Cardinals all at least 10 games above the .500 mark, and it took an insane 36-16 run by the Astros from the start of the second half to Carlos Zambrano’s no-hitter in the controversial two-game series in Milwaukee to be among those four.
Because the AL East is so tough, all five teams in the division finished at the top in strength of schedule. The Orioles (68-93) had an awful 22-50 record inside the division and were just 16-32 versus left-handed starting pitchers.

The Orioles, though, had a pretty good offense (except for a slow start and a sluggish finish): 11th in runs scored (782), 9th in total bases (2,384), tied for 10th in OPS (.762), 6th in doubles (322), tied for 13th in home runs (172), and 11th in batting average (.267).

While the hitting was surprisingly impressive, the pitching was dreadful. I’ve covered the Orioles’ terrible pitching in other posts, though, so I don’t think I need to waste much more time recounting the horror again; I’m looking at you, Steve Trachsel, Fernando Cabrera, Garrett Olson, Brian Burres, Bob McCrory, Jamie Walker, Kam Mickolio, Greg Aquino, Radhames Liz, Daniel Cabrera, Ryan “Ice Man” Bukvich, and Adam Loewen (pre-injury).

Anyway, let’s go through some of the positives and negatives of the season.

Positives

#1 -- Aubrey Huff’s great season.

Where did this come from? In January of 2007, the Orioles signed Huff to a 3-year, $20 million contract. In his first year with the O’s, Huff hit .280, but he hit only 15 HRs, drove in only 72 runs, and finished with a .337 OBP and a .779 OPS. Those numbers are decent for a hitter towards the bottom of the lineup -- not someone batting fourth or fifth in the majors.

This season, though, Huff had his best year since 2003 when he was playing with the Rays. That season, Huff hit .311/.367/.555 with 34 HRs and 107 RBI. This year, Huff hit .304/.360/.552 with 32 HRs and 107 RBI -- very similar. Huff finished 5th in the AL in OPS and tied for 8th in homers. He hit more home runs than Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau, and Carlos Pena. He also had 82 extra base hits (most in the AL) and stayed healthy all season (154 games played), which is something many of the Orioles weren’t able to do as the long season rolled along.

His dramatically improved presence at the plate was certainly one of the reasons why the Orioles offense was better than last season’s.

#2 -- The steady pitching of Jeremy Guthrie.

Guthrie was an outstanding starting pitcher this season on a team that, at the moment, only has one reliable starter. Guthrie finished with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, 120 strikeouts (5.66 K/9), and only 58 walks in 190.2 innings pitched. Opposing batters also hit just .242 off of Guthrie.

Unfortunately, the Orioles didn’t really take advantage of many of Guthrie’s starts, and he finished the season with a 10-12 record. Meanwhile, a pitcher like Garrett Olson, with an atrocious 6.65 ERA, had a 9-10 record. So the next time that someone tries to point out a pitcher’s worth and immediately points to the number of wins or the win-loss record, simply ignore them.

#3 -- The players received in the Miguel Tejada trade: Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, and Troy Patton.

The latter of these four, Patton, has yet to pitch for the Orioles because of a left labrum tear. But he’s only 23 years old, and he is hoping to recover in time to make the club next season.

Scott is a very streaky hitter, and this season was no different. He will probably never hit higher than .275 in a full season, but he did add some pop to the Orioles lineup by hitting 23 HRs and driving in 65 runs. His .807 OPS this season was actually a huge upgrade over the everyday left fielder last season, Jay Payton, who had a .668 OPS and only 7 HRs in 434 at bats in 2007.

Albers was pitching very well (3.49 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .240 BAA) before an MRI revealed a partially-torn labrum in his right shoulder. Albers decided against having surgery and chose to rehab instead. If Albers, 25, is healthy enough to pitch at the start of next season, he may end up in the starting rotation.

Sarfate was also impressive in his first season with the Orioles. His overall numbers -- 4.74 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 86 Ks, 1.39 K/BB -- were not good at all, but they include his four starts (or disasters) on the mound. In those four starts, Sarfate amassed a 10.34 ERA in 15.2 innings pitched; however, as a reliever, Sarfate had a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings pitched and struck out 71 batters. His brief stint as a starting pitcher may have shown him that the way for him to succeed is as a reliever.

Interestingly enough, Sarfate also pitched most of the season with a fractured clavicle in his right shoulder. According to MASN’s Roch Kubatko in this blog post, “[t]he fracture occurred while Sarfate was moving into his new home [in April]. He bent over to pick up a set of keys that he dropped, and the door that he swung open slammed into his shoulder.” He ended the season on the 15-day disabled list, but he should be fine after he rests in the offseason.

#4 -- Melvin Mora’s second-half surge. (Yes, it’s not really a half -- whatever.)

Before a hamstring injury slowed him down with a few weeks left in the season, Mora was having arguably the best second half of any hitter in the American League. Mora hit .376 after the break; only one other player in MLB had a higher average over that period with as many at bats: Manny Ramirez (.388). Mora’s other numbers over that time period include 12 HRs, 55 RBI, and a 1.073 OPS.

Mora still finished the season with solid numbers -- .285/.342/.483, 23 HRs, 104 RBI -- but it would have been nice to see him able to complete the season while playing at such a high level.

#5 -- The first-half performances of George Sherrill and Jim Johnson.

George Sherrill and his flat-billed cap brought some stability to the Orioles bullpen in the first part of the season. Before the All-Star Break, Sherrill had a 4.08 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 39.2 innings pitched; he also accumulated 28 saves. But after the break, Sherrill pitched only 13.2 innings and put up some bad numbers: 6.59 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 3 saves. He also missed about a month battling some shoulder inflammation. There are two possibilities for Sherrill’s poor second half: 1) He pitched only 45.2 innings in 2007, so maybe the workload this season was too much for him; and 2) The All-Star Game went 15 innings, and AL manager Terry Francona had Sherrill throw 2.1 innings, which may have added some fatigue to Sherrill’s arm.

Nonetheless, Sherrill’s pitching in the first half was just an added bonus to the ample rewards the Orioles received in the Erik Bedard trade.

Another welcome surprise was the presence of 25-year-old Jim Johnson, who didn’t even start out with the Orioles on Opening Day. But Johnson was brought up after making one start for Norfolk, and he soon became the primary set-up man for Sherrill in the bullpen. Johnson’s numbers from April through July -- 53.1 IP, 2.03 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .181 BAA -- were fantastic, and he deserved to be the Orioles’ representative in the All-Star Game more than Sherrill.

But like Sherrill, Johnson began to fade a bit -- 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, .323 BAA -- after the break. He was shut down for the rest of the season in early September when an MRI revealed damage in his shoulder. He was heavily relied upon in the first portion of the season, which may have been the reason for his shoulder problems.

In the minors he had been a starting pitcher; in 2007, he threw 148 innings for the Norfolk Tides. Perhaps Johnson’s arm wasn’t completely ready for the demanding role of set-up man, but he should be fine for the start of spring training.

#6 -- Dave Trembley’s old-school coaching and post-game reactions.

No manager is perfect, and Trembley certainly had his fair share of questionable decisions as far as bringing in various relievers. But he did a good job with the hand he was dealt this season. Trembley also had the team playing at an extremely high level before the team’s abrupt collapse in August/September.

Also, I thoroughly enjoyed Trembley’s post-game press conferences and interviews. He’s always mad when the team loses, as he should be, and he doesn’t hide the fact that he hates answering questions instead of being in the clubhouse talking with his players. His face almost always turns bright red; it’s an intimidating appearance. He’s not afraid to say what he feels is right or what needs to be said in certain situations. He’ll defend his players or call them out if he feels it’s necessary. Trembley is accountable for whatever happens on the field and aware of what it will take to turn this team around.

#7 -- Jay Payton won’t be back next season.

Payton plays the game hard; I understand that. He runs hard down the first-base line, he hustles after every ball in the outfield, and he’s not afraid to bang into the wall to make a catch. In a way, he’s kind of like David Eckstein: the guy who just plays the game “the right way” and looks like he’s giving everything he has. Well, that’s fine and dandy after a while, but when a team is losing and that player isn’t performing all that well, it doesn’t matter as much. When Eckstein was playing on World Series winners like the 2002 Angels and the 2007 Cardinals, it didn’t matter that he only had OPS’s of .751 and .738, respectively, because he played decent defense, moved runners over, and put the ball in play. Winning games makes individual players’ deficiencies matter less. Now, I bet you couldn’t even guess what team Eckstein finished the season with. (It’s the Arizona Diamondbacks, by the way.)

The two seasons in Baltimore have been the worst of Payton’s career. I mentioned his 2007 stats earlier, but his numbers this season were worse. He only hit .243 and had an OPS of .637, which is very bad. Sure, he basically played in a platoon role because of Luke Scott in left field, but Payton still had over 330 at bats -- he just didn’t hit well or get on base much. And that’s not even considering the fact that Payton made $4.5 million in 2007 and $5 million in 2008.

#8 -- Nick Markakis’s defense.

Markakis led all ML outfielders in assists this season with 17, and he committed just 3 errors while playing in 157 games. At the beginning of the season, opposing runners challenged Markakis; many of them soon learned that wasn’t such a good idea. Besides throwing runners out, he also made numerous outstanding diving catches and played solid all-around defense in right field.

#9 -- The presence of Adam Jones.

Having Jones in center field this season was a breath of fresh air for Orioles fans. Not only is he a solid player, but he’s only 23 years old. His numbers -- .270/.311/.400, 9 HRs, 57 RBI, 10 SB -- are not overly impressive, but this was his rookie season. Jones also covers a lot of ground in the outfield to form a fantastic center field-right field duo with Markakis. He certainly has plenty of room to improve, but Jones certainly possesses the tools to do so.

There’s no doubt that Jones has the potential to be exceptional on the field, but he’s already special off of it. First of all, he’s not afraid to take pictures for Yahoo! Sports with his eyes closed. Second, he hates to miss games, evident by his constant nagging of Dave Trembley to let him back on the field when he was dealing with a fractured foot. Trembley obviously had enough to deal with this year with a crumbling pitching staff, but the image of Jones asking, “Can I play now, Coach?” on a daily basis was (and still is) pretty funny.

#10 -- The limited appearances by Lou Montanez and Oscar Salazar.

When Jones was placed on the disabled list in early August, the Orioles purchased Lou Montanez’s contract from Double-A Bowie. At the time, Montanez had hit .335 with 26 HRs and 97 RBI in 116 games and was leading the Eastern League in all three Triple Crown categories. When the Bowie regular season ended about a month later, Montanez was still in the lead to clinch the Eastern League’s first Triple Crown since 1976. He also won the MVP award for his outstanding season.

Though he still needs to improve his outfield skills, Montanez, who turns 27 in December, played very well in the first 38 games in the majors of his career. The former third overall pick in the 2000 MLB Draft hit .295 with 3 HRs, 14 RBI, and a respectable .763 OPS. He also managed to homer in his first major league at bat against the Angels, which will leave him with an amazing memory for the rest of his life even if he ends up back in the minors next season.

Injuries and infield concerns also presented some playing time for 30-year-old Oscar Salazar. Mainly a corner infielder and designated hitter, Salazar batted .284 with 5 HRs, 15 RBI, and an OPS of .879. The 34 games played with the Orioles were the first for Salazar since a brief 8-game appearance with the Detroit Tigers in 2002.

The Orioles always appear to be looking for serviceable bench players, and both Montanez and Salazar deserve a chance to stick around next season.

Other notables: The great offensive seasons by Roberts and Markakis; this gem from Joe Angel: "Trachsel's taking a long time between pitches... well, if you had his stuff, you wouldn't want to throw it either"; Buck Martinez’s crazy hair; Juan Castro’s defense; listening to Gary Thorne say “Guillermo Quiroz,”; Jim Palmer’s random stories and love for In-N-Out Burger; Kevin Millar’s blond hair experiment; and his one-time at bat music after apparently losing a bet.

Negatives

#1 -- Another second-half collapse.

Nothing signals the end of summer like the annual Orioles collapse in the second part of the season. This season, the Orioles managed to tread water in late July (6-8) and August (11-17), but the epic implosion eventually came in September when the Orioles went an astounding 5-20. Yes, 5 wins and 20 losses.

The horrible final month capped off a 22-45 post All-Star Break record for the O’s, during which the Orioles happened to have separate losing streaks of 5 games (8/22-8/26), 8 games (8/29-9/6), and 10 games (9/17-9/26).

Both injuries and bad pitching certainly played a significant role in the team’s second-half downfall, but so did the schedule. The Orioles finished off the season with 37 games in this order: 3 vs. Boston, 3 vs. New York, 3 vs. Chicago, 3 vs. Tampa Bay, 3 vs. Boston, 2 vs. Oakland, 4 vs. Cleveland, 3 vs. Minnesota, 3 vs. Toronto, 3 vs. New York, 4 vs. Tampa Bay, and 3 vs. Toronto. Those eight teams finished the season with a combined record of more than 100 games over .500 (699-596). So the Orioles looked terrible as the season came to an end, but they had lots of help.

#2 -- Awful pitching.

Just posting the numbers:

Overall pitching: 13th (out of 14 teams) in AL in ERA (5.13), 14th in walks (687), 14th in strikeouts (922), and 13th in runs (869).

Starting pitching: Tied for 13th in ERA (5.51), 13th in innings pitched (882.0), 14th in walks (395), 14th in strikeouts (514).

Relief pitching: 11th in ERA (4.50), 3rd in innings pitched (540.0), 14th in walks (292), 7th in strikeouts (408).

Ouch.

#3 -- Daniel Cabrera’s pitching (and batting).

Since his debut with the team in 2004, the Orioles have been waiting for Daniel Cabrera to turn the proverbial corner and harness his raw skills. After yet another disappointing 2008 campaign, the Orioles may still be waiting in 2009 if the front office decides to bring him back since he’s eligible for arbitration and may get around $5 million.

Unfortunately for the Orioles, Cabrera’s performance this year was arguably the worst of his career. Cabrera finished the season on the disabled list with a right elbow sprain and the possibility of his back affecting his pitching at various points during the season. Some injuries may explain not only his awful numbers -- 5.25 ERA, 1.05 K/BB, 1.61 WHIP, .286 BAA -- but also his fluctuating pitch speeds on the radar gun. Before this season, Cabrera consistently reached the upper 90s with his fastball; this season, he sometimes threw in the upper 80s to low 90s.

But to dismiss many of Cabrera’s troubles because of the possibility of an injury would be foolish; his pitching mechanics haven’t improved in five seasons, and he is usually among the league leaders in walks, hit batsmen, and wild pitches. This season was no different -- 2nd in the AL in walks (90), 1st in HBP (18), and 1st in wild pitches (15). It’s bad enough that Cabrera simply cannot correct his troubles on the mound; instead, every time he pitches and Jim Palmer is in the broadcast booth, Palmer lectures about how Cabrera’s mechanics seem to have deteriorated.

And the mention about Cabrera’s hitting is for this reason: in 14 career at bats, Cabrera has struck out 14 times. He’d probably have a better chance swinging a telephone pole.

#4 -- Watching the Orioles run the bases.

This one is pretty self-explanatory, but if it’s not, then it’s definitely Trembley-explanatory. Here are some comments from Trembley after the O’s ran themselves out of another inning on Sept. 22 against the Rays:

“We had two crucial baserunning mistakes. It's three balls and two strikes and you're running, and it's a fly ball. Don't you stop? It's not Kamikaze baseball. You don't just run until you're out. To me, that's just a total mental breakdown on his (Salazar's) part. Total. And to be honest to you, that's embarrassing to me and the club and the people who are watching the game. And I'm not burying him, but that's not right."

Orioles’ baserunners seem to frequently run themselves out of bigger innings by getting greedy or not paying attention. Also, many runners on the team don’t get good secondary leads and are pretty bad at going from first to third on a single. Sure, the O’s have many slow runners like Millar, Hernandez, Huff, Scott, Quiroz, and Salazar, but slow runners can still pay attention and take the extra base when necessary.

#5 -- Jamie Walker.

Walker, 37, was placed on the disabled list in late June with inflammation in his left elbow. He battled back to rejoin the Orioles in about a month, but he appeared to still be feeling the effects of the same injury and just wasn’t the same pitcher.

His numbers show just how ineffective he was this year: 6.87 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, .325 BAA. Left-handed batters hit .304 off of him and had 7 HRs. Even though he has one more year left on his contract, the Orioles may choose to let him walk and cut their losses.

#6 -- Luis Hernandez and Freddie Bynum both failing to keep the shortstop job.

When the Orioles started the season with Luis Hernandez as the starting shortstop, Hernandez wasn’t asked to do much. He was supposed to play solid defense and maybe hit around .250. But he didn’t have much range at shortstop (he’s more of a second baseman), and he batted .241, had a .295 OBP, and had only one extra-base hit, a double, in 79 at bats.

So, when Bynum was activated from the disabled list on May 8, the Orioles handed him the starting shortstop job and asked him to do the same. Instead, Bynum proceeded to produce at a lower level than even Hernandez did. Bynum, who also isn’t really a shortstop, didn’t play good defense; he made 5 errors in 32 starts and didn’t get to many hits to the left or right of him. (Remember how this game ended?) He was also horribly unproductive at the plate: .179 AVG, 0 HRs, 8 RBI, .444 OPS.

The inability of both Hernandez and Bynum led to fans being forced to watch Alex Cintron play the infield like Roger Dorn before he found out that Rachel Phelps wanted to move the team to Florida and get rid of all the players in Major League. At least the team traded for Juan Castro, who didn’t hit well but actually fielded his position -- imagine that.

#7 -- Ramon Hernandez’s relatively unproductive season.

Hernandez had a sluggish year behind the plate; in 118 starts, he was tied for 2nd in the AL in errors among catchers (9) and 3rd in passed balls (9). Though the pitching staff didn’t help him to hold runners very efficiently, Hernandez also played a significant role in allowing 99 stolen bases, the most in the AL. Only two everyday catchers had worse numbers in the running game than Hernandez (.195 caught stealing percentage): A.J. Pierzynski (.186) and John Buck (.174).

As far as hitting, Hernandez had a very solid second half. He hit .288 with 7 HRs and a .791 OPS after the All-Star Break, but he hit just .237 with 8 HRs and a .747 OPS before the break. For someone who made $7.5 million this season, those numbers just don’t add up.

Other notables: Having Orioles pitchers give up leads almost immediately after getting them; watching Daniel Cabrera cover first base; lots of injuries; the possible return of Danys Baez to the bullpen next season; Rick Dempsey in the broadcast booth; Mark Viviano as the sideline reporter instead of Amber Theoharis; horrible camera angles and the lack of replays from MASN; and starters routinely going fewer than 5 innings.

Even though this season didn’t end well, there’s always next year. Besides, the Orioles have plenty of things to look forward to next season and in seasons to come; nonetheless, the front office has plenty of important decisions to make in the offseason.

I’ll try to go over most of them in the next post.

Orioles should consider bringing Mussina back

Unquestionably, the Orioles will have plenty of pitching concerns heading into the offseason.

Now, there are two ways of looking at the team's pitching dilemma. One, the O's have plenty of pitchers on the mend who should be fine heading into the 2009 season. A list of Oriole pitchers who are rehabbing or are shut down for the season includes Jeremy Guthrie (right shoulder), Matt Albers (partially torn labrum), Danys Baez (right elbow surgery), Daniel Cabrera (right elbow), Jim Hoey (right shoulder surgery), Jim Johnson (right shoulder), Troy Patton (left labrum surgery), Chris Ray (right elbow surgery), and Dennis Sarfate (right distal clavicle fracture). Hayden Penn's name can also be thrown in that list because he's almost always injured. George Sherrill recently returned from the disabled list and seems to be fine. Without a doubt, that's an impressive list, and most of them hope to be ready for the start of next season.

The Orioles, though, are never that lucky, so the second view is that the Orioles need to sign a few free agent starting pitchers. The last time the O's made a major move for free agent pitchers was in 2006 when the team signed Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Baez. Needless to say, the signings didn't (and haven't: Walker -- 5.97 ERA) exactly panned out.

A list of 2009 free agent starting pitchers can be seen here (scroll down a bit). In no particular order, the top names on the list of many teams will probably be: A.J. Burnett (if he opts out), Ryan Dempster, Jon Garland, Kyle Lohse, Mike Mussina, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia, and Ben Sheets. Some other intriguing but aging pitchers are: Paul Byrd, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers, and John Smoltz.

I have only heard one of the names above, Burnett, mentioned as being a possibility for the O's, and that appears to be because his wife is from the Baltimore area. Now, Burnett is having a good season (18-10, 4.19 ERA, 214 Ks, 1.35 WHIP, 206.1 innings pitched), but he's been injury prone throughout his career and would also ask for lots of money and a long-term deal. The O's would surely like to add a pitcher as talented as Sabathia or Sheets, but both will command huge contracts after this season.

That seems to leave one solution: sign one or two veteran starters to one or two year deals. Arguably, the two smartest and most dependable free agent options for the Orioles are Lowe and Mussina. Lowe's numbers this season -- 14-11, 3.40 ERA, 138 Ks, 1.14 WHIP -- have gone under the radar a bit, especially with the Dodgers where everyone has gone crazy over the presence of Manny Ramirez in that lineup. Lowe, 35, has had a pretty solid career and would certainly fill a large hole in the O's starting rotation. He is making $10 million this season, so the O's may not want to pay that much. He also probably wouldn't have the same kind of success in the AL East that he is having in the NL West, but he's better than most of the options the O's have right now.

Mussina will turn 40 in December, and he's had a solid season (18-9, 3.57 ERA, 141 Ks, 29 BB) for an underachieving Yankees team. Even if the O's signed Mussina for just one season, he'd provide a veteran presence for many of the younger pitchers and would eat a lot of innings since he avoids injuries. He also doesn't walk many hitters at all, while the O's lead both the AL and NL in walks allowed with 655 (so far). Signing Mussina would also bring him back to Baltimore where he was so dominant for 10 seasons. But two potential problems may arise if the O's are interested in Mussina: 1) He made $11 million this season, and the Orioles probably wouldn't pay that to Mussina for one or two seasons, and the Yankees or someone else might. 2) Mussina may not be interested in coming to a team coming off of a losing season; he still hasn't won a World Series yet.

In the end, the Orioles may decide to just go with their current roster and hope for the best. They will also have to figure out whether or not they want to bring back Daniel Cabrera; they probably won't if it costs more than $5 million.

But I know that I'm not the only one who doesn't want to see another makeshift rotation that includes any combination of Brian Burres, Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, Chris Waters, and Cabrera with Guthrie.

Bedard and Guthrie give the Orioles hope

Over the last two days against the hated New York Yankees, the Orioles received two very encouraging starts from Jeremy Guthrie and Erik Bedard. On Tuesday, Guthrie struck out six while only giving up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings. He ended up with a no-decision, but Guthrie battled against Andy Pettitte and a tough NY lineup. He made only one mistake -- hanging a slider to Johnny Damon for a two-run HR. But he kept the Orioles in the game when runs were hard to come by, and the O's eventually won in the 9th inning when Scott Proctor forced in the winning when when he walked Ramon Hernandez with the bases loaded.

On Wednesday, Bedard squared off against the always formidable Roger Clemens. Looking unhittable at times, Bedard allowed only two hits and walked one while striking out eight bewildered Yanks in seven scoreless innings. Surprisingly, the bullpen held the lead for the Orioles, and led by Bedard's great performance, they shut the Yankees out 4-0.

Even though the Yankees have been struggling all season, they still have a talent-laden lineup that can strike at any time. But Guthrie and Bedard tamed this team on consecutive days, and the Orioles have arguably looked the best they have all year. After viewing these last two games, I was extremely impressed by the talent that Guthrie and Bedard both possess.

Bedard has seemingly put all the pieces together and is starting to pitch up to his skill level. With the help of Leo Mazzone, Bedard is trusting his stuff and is leading the MLB in strikeouts with 129. In his start last night, Bedard mixed and matched his fastball and curveball effectively. He handcuffed hitters throughout the game, and no one in the Yankees lineup looked comfortable at all.

Guthrie is a name that very few Orioles' fans had even heard of before the season began. But current O's manager Dave Trembley, who had seen Guthrie pitch in the minors over a couple seasons, urged the Orioles' front office to sign Guthrie and give him a chance. The Orioles did just that, and Guthrie took his opportunity in the starting rotation early in the season and ran with it. So far, he's passed all of the tests placed upon him with flying colors and has a stunning 2.45 ERA, which ranks second in the AL behind the A's Dan Haren.

Every time these pitchers step to the mound, they give the O's a chance to win. Combined the two only have 10 wins between them, which says more about how the rest of the team has played than their abilities to win and finish games. They have been two bright spots on a team littered with missed opportunities and wasted potential. Guthrie and Bedard are both 28 years old and have helped secure a starting rotation that has been, to be polite, very mediocre over the last several years.

Daniel Cabrera, another promising young talent for the Orioles, on the other hand, has been average at best for the O's this year. Cabrera has a high ERA of 4.98 and has already walked 49 batters. But the crazy thing with Cabrera is that, in between some bad starts, he occasionally shows flashes of brilliance. In the middle of June, Cabrera had two bad starts in a row against the overachieving Nationals and the surprising Diamonbacks. He gave up seven and five earned runs respectively in two losses. But in his next start in Arizona on June 22nd in a rematch with the Diamondbacks, Cabrera took a no-hitter into the 6th inning. He left after the 6th because of a high pitch count, but Cabrera pitched effectively to lead the O's to victory.

Cabrera has always been a pitcher with a high ceiling. He has so much talent, yet at times he looks completely lost on the mound, frequently unable to harness his abilities and simply throw strikes. He has an explosive fastball and a nasty slider, but besides those two pitches, he never throws anything else -- no change-up, no splitter, no sinker. Does he need a third pitch? Probably, but that doesn't mean that his control should be so terrible in long stretches. Anyway, Cabrera was supposed to break out either last season or this one, and he hasn't pitched particularly well.

The point is this -- if Cabrera can ever maintain some consistency and pitch to the talent level he owns, the Orioles could have three solid and relatively young (Cabrera is only 26) starting pitchers to build around. The O's farm system also has strong pitching talent with names like Olsen, Liz, Doyne, Hoey, Penn, and Erbe. And Adam Loewen, who also has an incredibly high ceiling, pitched well before his season-ending injury in May. If the O's and Leo Mazzone keep pushing and working with Cabrera, the O's could potentially have a rotation with some combination of Bedard, Guthrie, Cabrera, Loewen, and Penn/Olsen/Erbe. That's a solid core right there to build around, and the O's could contend with teams for years, especially if they ever received consistent efforts from the bullpen.

Is this a lot to hope for? Sure, I guess, but compiling a starting rotation with mostly homegrown talent is a lot less safer than taking huge risks; just the name Carl Pavano should be scary enough to strike fear into the hearts of any fans waiting for a free agent pitcher to produce.

There's no doubt that the Orioles possess some promising talent in the farm system, and the next few months, which always seems like the case, will be very important for a club still searching for an identity. But I believe these guys should be the direction the O's go in. Guys like David Segui, Albert Belle, Sammy Sosa, the latest Rafael Palmerio aquisition, and, sadly, Miguel Tejada, just haven't helped the team at all. They've all only added to the disappointment, and very rarely do the O's trust a group of young guys to turn the team around. That doesn't mean free agents can't be signed or smart trades can't be made, but building around this young pitching core and hitters like Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts should be the plan the O's front office makes.

Who would have thought before the season that the starting pitching staff would be the part of the team to build around? I wasn't one of them -- but I'm definitely a believer now.

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Apparently the NBA Draft is tonight, and not this weekend, so the running blog will be posted tonight. My mistake on the previous post.