The way I see it, the Orioles have at least 10 important decisions to make this offseason. I'll cover five of them in this post and five in the next. So let's get to it.
In no particular order:
#1: Will the Orioles give Nick Markakis a new contract?
Markakis is the best player on the Orioles, and he will turn just 25 in November. But the team couldn't negotiate a contract extension before the start of the season, so he made only $455,000 in 2008. That's not a bad deal for the Orioles considering Markakis has averaged a .299 batting average, .375 on-base percentage, 19 home runs, 172 hits, and 67 walks in his first three years in the majors. However, the Orioles again couldn't complete a contract extension with Markakis in late July, and the team must now work on a deal in the offseason -- especially since he is eligible for arbitration and will make lots of money either way.
The good news for the Orioles is that the team controls Markakis's rights until 2011, but if they cannot complete a deal in the near future, they could risk upsetting him or making him want to play elsewhere -- and that would not be good.
Prediction: Markakis finally gets a long-term deal.
#2: What should the Orioles do with Nolan Reimold?
Playing for the Bowie Baysox, the 25-year-old Reimold had his best season as an Orioles farmhand. Not only did Reimold show that he can stay healthy (139 games played), but he also demonstrated his tremendous hitting ability: .284 BA, .868 OPS, 25 HR. With Markakis in right field and Adam Jones (23 years old) in center, Reimold's presence in left field would give the Orioles a young and extremely talented outfield for many years to come.
Two things seemingly stand in the way of that happening: 1) Reimold might not be ready, and 2) Luke Scott had a pretty good 2008 season. If the Orioles did decide to go with Reimold in left field, Scott could become the primary designated hitter and still play in left every once in a while. Lou Montanez also had a strong showing in the latter part of the season when he was called up, and he could play a part in the final outcome.
Prediction: Reimold stays in the minors and, barring injury, is brought up at some point during the season.
#3: Sign a free agent shortstop or re-sign Juan Castro?
In 61 games with the Orioles in 2008, Castro solved the defensive dilemma at shortstop for the Orioles. He's a slick fielder and has quick hands, but none of those things seemed to help him at the plate, where he batted .193 with 2 home runs and a minuscule .513 OPS. Brandon Fahey laughs at those numbers. (Well, sort of -- Fahey has a career .586 OPS.) Alex Cintron hit the best of all the shortstop experiments this season -- Luis Hernandez, Freddie Bynum, Fahey, Castro -- with a .286 batting average and a .682 OPS, but he made 7 errors at shortstop in only 28 starts and just doesn't have the range to be anything more than a utility infielder. Cintron is also a free agent, so he may not be back in 2009.
Two intriguing names are on the 2009 free agent shortstop list: Orlando Cabrera and Rafael Furcal. Some other names on the list are Alex Cora, David Eckstein, Adam Everett, Cesar Izturis, Edgar Renteria, Juan Uribe, and Omar Vizquel. But all of these shortstops are about 30 years old or older, which probably isn't the best plan for the Orioles if they don't want to give someone more than a one or two-year deal. The Orioles have also shown at least some interest in the past in guys like Eckstein and Everett, but they might as well keep Castro rather than spend some millions on average shortstops.
If the Orioles decide to go after Cabrera or Furcal, Cabrera appears to be the safer option of the two. Furcal, who turns 31 in a few weeks, is three years younger than Cabrera, who turns 34 in November; however, Furcal is more injury-prone. Cabrera has played in 140 games or more in every season since 2001. Until this season, Furcal had played in 138 games or more since 2002, but he also had lower back surgery earlier in the season which caused him to miss five months. Furcal will probably command more money as well; Furcal made $15.7 million in 2008, while Cabrera made $10 million.
Either signing a shortstop for cheap or just letting Castro get most of the starts isn't a bad plan to go with if the Orioles don't want to pay a lot of money for Cabrera or Furcal, and I won't blame them if that's what they choose. At some point, though, the Orioles will need to trade for a solid shortstop prospect or at least draft a few because the farm system doesn't include many options at the position. Then again, Mike Bordick could always come out of retirement and save the day.
Prediction: The Orioles don't sign Cabrera or Furcal and either let Castro start or sign another shortstop for cheap.
#4: Should the Orioles trade Ramon Hernandez and begin the Matt Wieters era now?
The debate among Orioles fans is probably the same as the debate going on in the Orioles front office, which is: Is Matt Wieters ready, and if so, what should be done with Hernandez?
Honestly, there may not be a right answer. The Orioles probably wouldn't get much in return if they were to trade Hernandez because he becomes a free agent after the 2009 season and doesn't appear to have a whole lot left in the tank. But if they start him and he performs as poorly as he did in the first part of the 2008 season, many fans will be calling for his release, which could be awkward if the team isn't ready to go with Wieters at that point.
And that also brings up a critical decision for many organizations: When is the right time to bring up top prospects? Wieters is the best catching prospect in all of baseball, but it could be possible that he's just not ready yet.
Either way, his numbers in his first full season in the minors were outstanding. In 69 games with the Frederick Keys, Wieters batted .345 with 15 home runs and a 1.024 OPS, and in 61 games with the Bowie Baysox, he batted .365 with 12 home runs and a 1.085 OPS.
Andy MacPhail has made plenty of solid decisions so far as President of Baseball Operations with the Orioles, and the handling of Matt Wieters will be very important for the Orioles' future.
Prediction: Hernandez starts the season with the team, but the Orioles eventually bring Wieters up after he continues to dominate minor league pitching.
#5: Give Brian Roberts a new contract or trade him?
Like Hernandez, Roberts is also scheduled to become a free agent in 2009. The Orioles signed Roberts to a two-year, $14.3 million contract extension before the 2007 season, and he made $6.3 million in 2008 and is scheduled to make $8 million in 2009. However, he's due to earn a lucrative new contract very soon, and if the Orioles aren't going to pay him, then moving him to a contending team willing to offer a few talented prospects seems to be the direction to go in.
Roberts, who recently just turned 31, is the fifth-highest paid second baseman in MLB (in average annual value), and he'll probably be looking for a three or four-year contract worth at least $10 million per season. (As a contrast even though Roberts won't make a deal nearly this big, Chase Utley, arguably the best second baseman in MLB, signed a seven-year, $85 million contract with the Phillies before the 2007 season. That's an average of over $12 million per season.) If the Orioles determine that Roberts will be a key piece to turning around their misfortunes, then paying the money would make sense. But that obviously will depend on how much money they (hopefully) want to give to Markakis this offseason and a few other players they could be thinking about going after.
Trading Roberts could end up being a good decision, but there are two drawbacks from doing so. First, he's a fan favorite and someone who plays hard every game. And second, trading Roberts would leave the Orioles with an even more questionable middle infield with no real solution in sight.
Then again, that whole Tejada-Roberts combination didn't exactly win the Orioles a ton of games anyway.
Prediction: The Orioles try to get a deal done with Roberts but don't. He ends up being traded during the season.
Next post: 5 more questions.
Showing posts with label Orioles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Orioles. Show all posts
Monday, October 13, 2008
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Examining the 2008 Orioles' season
Now that the 2008 MLB regular season has come to an end, the Orioles have finished in last place for the first time since 1988.
Finishing in last place is never a good thing, but the Orioles do happen to play in one of the best, if not the best, division in MLB -- the AL East.
The AL East was one of two divisions in baseball with four teams -- the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays -- that finished at least 10 games above .500. The other division was the NL Central, with the Cubs, Brewers, Astros, and Cardinals all at least 10 games above the .500 mark, and it took an insane 36-16 run by the Astros from the start of the second half to Carlos Zambrano’s no-hitter in the controversial two-game series in Milwaukee to be among those four.
Because the AL East is so tough, all five teams in the division finished at the top in strength of schedule. The Orioles (68-93) had an awful 22-50 record inside the division and were just 16-32 versus left-handed starting pitchers.
The Orioles, though, had a pretty good offense (except for a slow start and a sluggish finish): 11th in runs scored (782), 9th in total bases (2,384), tied for 10th in OPS (.762), 6th in doubles (322), tied for 13th in home runs (172), and 11th in batting average (.267).
While the hitting was surprisingly impressive, the pitching was dreadful. I’ve covered the Orioles’ terrible pitching in other posts, though, so I don’t think I need to waste much more time recounting the horror again; I’m looking at you, Steve Trachsel, Fernando Cabrera, Garrett Olson, Brian Burres, Bob McCrory, Jamie Walker, Kam Mickolio, Greg Aquino, Radhames Liz, Daniel Cabrera, Ryan “Ice Man” Bukvich, and Adam Loewen (pre-injury).
Anyway, let’s go through some of the positives and negatives of the season.
Positives
#1 -- Aubrey Huff’s great season.
Where did this come from? In January of 2007, the Orioles signed Huff to a 3-year, $20 million contract. In his first year with the O’s, Huff hit .280, but he hit only 15 HRs, drove in only 72 runs, and finished with a .337 OBP and a .779 OPS. Those numbers are decent for a hitter towards the bottom of the lineup -- not someone batting fourth or fifth in the majors.
This season, though, Huff had his best year since 2003 when he was playing with the Rays. That season, Huff hit .311/.367/.555 with 34 HRs and 107 RBI. This year, Huff hit .304/.360/.552 with 32 HRs and 107 RBI -- very similar. Huff finished 5th in the AL in OPS and tied for 8th in homers. He hit more home runs than Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau, and Carlos Pena. He also had 82 extra base hits (most in the AL) and stayed healthy all season (154 games played), which is something many of the Orioles weren’t able to do as the long season rolled along.
His dramatically improved presence at the plate was certainly one of the reasons why the Orioles offense was better than last season’s.
#2 -- The steady pitching of Jeremy Guthrie.
Guthrie was an outstanding starting pitcher this season on a team that, at the moment, only has one reliable starter. Guthrie finished with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, 120 strikeouts (5.66 K/9), and only 58 walks in 190.2 innings pitched. Opposing batters also hit just .242 off of Guthrie.
Unfortunately, the Orioles didn’t really take advantage of many of Guthrie’s starts, and he finished the season with a 10-12 record. Meanwhile, a pitcher like Garrett Olson, with an atrocious 6.65 ERA, had a 9-10 record. So the next time that someone tries to point out a pitcher’s worth and immediately points to the number of wins or the win-loss record, simply ignore them.
#3 -- The players received in the Miguel Tejada trade: Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, and Troy Patton.
The latter of these four, Patton, has yet to pitch for the Orioles because of a left labrum tear. But he’s only 23 years old, and he is hoping to recover in time to make the club next season.
Scott is a very streaky hitter, and this season was no different. He will probably never hit higher than .275 in a full season, but he did add some pop to the Orioles lineup by hitting 23 HRs and driving in 65 runs. His .807 OPS this season was actually a huge upgrade over the everyday left fielder last season, Jay Payton, who had a .668 OPS and only 7 HRs in 434 at bats in 2007.
Albers was pitching very well (3.49 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .240 BAA) before an MRI revealed a partially-torn labrum in his right shoulder. Albers decided against having surgery and chose to rehab instead. If Albers, 25, is healthy enough to pitch at the start of next season, he may end up in the starting rotation.
Sarfate was also impressive in his first season with the Orioles. His overall numbers -- 4.74 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 86 Ks, 1.39 K/BB -- were not good at all, but they include his four starts (or disasters) on the mound. In those four starts, Sarfate amassed a 10.34 ERA in 15.2 innings pitched; however, as a reliever, Sarfate had a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings pitched and struck out 71 batters. His brief stint as a starting pitcher may have shown him that the way for him to succeed is as a reliever.
Interestingly enough, Sarfate also pitched most of the season with a fractured clavicle in his right shoulder. According to MASN’s Roch Kubatko in this blog post, “[t]he fracture occurred while Sarfate was moving into his new home [in April]. He bent over to pick up a set of keys that he dropped, and the door that he swung open slammed into his shoulder.” He ended the season on the 15-day disabled list, but he should be fine after he rests in the offseason.
#4 -- Melvin Mora’s second-half surge. (Yes, it’s not really a half -- whatever.)
Before a hamstring injury slowed him down with a few weeks left in the season, Mora was having arguably the best second half of any hitter in the American League. Mora hit .376 after the break; only one other player in MLB had a higher average over that period with as many at bats: Manny Ramirez (.388). Mora’s other numbers over that time period include 12 HRs, 55 RBI, and a 1.073 OPS.
Mora still finished the season with solid numbers -- .285/.342/.483, 23 HRs, 104 RBI -- but it would have been nice to see him able to complete the season while playing at such a high level.
#5 -- The first-half performances of George Sherrill and Jim Johnson.
George Sherrill and his flat-billed cap brought some stability to the Orioles bullpen in the first part of the season. Before the All-Star Break, Sherrill had a 4.08 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 39.2 innings pitched; he also accumulated 28 saves. But after the break, Sherrill pitched only 13.2 innings and put up some bad numbers: 6.59 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 3 saves. He also missed about a month battling some shoulder inflammation. There are two possibilities for Sherrill’s poor second half: 1) He pitched only 45.2 innings in 2007, so maybe the workload this season was too much for him; and 2) The All-Star Game went 15 innings, and AL manager Terry Francona had Sherrill throw 2.1 innings, which may have added some fatigue to Sherrill’s arm.
Nonetheless, Sherrill’s pitching in the first half was just an added bonus to the ample rewards the Orioles received in the Erik Bedard trade.
Another welcome surprise was the presence of 25-year-old Jim Johnson, who didn’t even start out with the Orioles on Opening Day. But Johnson was brought up after making one start for Norfolk, and he soon became the primary set-up man for Sherrill in the bullpen. Johnson’s numbers from April through July -- 53.1 IP, 2.03 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .181 BAA -- were fantastic, and he deserved to be the Orioles’ representative in the All-Star Game more than Sherrill.
But like Sherrill, Johnson began to fade a bit -- 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, .323 BAA -- after the break. He was shut down for the rest of the season in early September when an MRI revealed damage in his shoulder. He was heavily relied upon in the first portion of the season, which may have been the reason for his shoulder problems.
In the minors he had been a starting pitcher; in 2007, he threw 148 innings for the Norfolk Tides. Perhaps Johnson’s arm wasn’t completely ready for the demanding role of set-up man, but he should be fine for the start of spring training.
#6 -- Dave Trembley’s old-school coaching and post-game reactions.
No manager is perfect, and Trembley certainly had his fair share of questionable decisions as far as bringing in various relievers. But he did a good job with the hand he was dealt this season. Trembley also had the team playing at an extremely high level before the team’s abrupt collapse in August/September.
Also, I thoroughly enjoyed Trembley’s post-game press conferences and interviews. He’s always mad when the team loses, as he should be, and he doesn’t hide the fact that he hates answering questions instead of being in the clubhouse talking with his players. His face almost always turns bright red; it’s an intimidating appearance. He’s not afraid to say what he feels is right or what needs to be said in certain situations. He’ll defend his players or call them out if he feels it’s necessary. Trembley is accountable for whatever happens on the field and aware of what it will take to turn this team around.
#7 -- Jay Payton won’t be back next season.
Payton plays the game hard; I understand that. He runs hard down the first-base line, he hustles after every ball in the outfield, and he’s not afraid to bang into the wall to make a catch. In a way, he’s kind of like David Eckstein: the guy who just plays the game “the right way” and looks like he’s giving everything he has. Well, that’s fine and dandy after a while, but when a team is losing and that player isn’t performing all that well, it doesn’t matter as much. When Eckstein was playing on World Series winners like the 2002 Angels and the 2007 Cardinals, it didn’t matter that he only had OPS’s of .751 and .738, respectively, because he played decent defense, moved runners over, and put the ball in play. Winning games makes individual players’ deficiencies matter less. Now, I bet you couldn’t even guess what team Eckstein finished the season with. (It’s the Arizona Diamondbacks, by the way.)
The two seasons in Baltimore have been the worst of Payton’s career. I mentioned his 2007 stats earlier, but his numbers this season were worse. He only hit .243 and had an OPS of .637, which is very bad. Sure, he basically played in a platoon role because of Luke Scott in left field, but Payton still had over 330 at bats -- he just didn’t hit well or get on base much. And that’s not even considering the fact that Payton made $4.5 million in 2007 and $5 million in 2008.
#8 -- Nick Markakis’s defense.
Markakis led all ML outfielders in assists this season with 17, and he committed just 3 errors while playing in 157 games. At the beginning of the season, opposing runners challenged Markakis; many of them soon learned that wasn’t such a good idea. Besides throwing runners out, he also made numerous outstanding diving catches and played solid all-around defense in right field.
#9 -- The presence of Adam Jones.
Having Jones in center field this season was a breath of fresh air for Orioles fans. Not only is he a solid player, but he’s only 23 years old. His numbers -- .270/.311/.400, 9 HRs, 57 RBI, 10 SB -- are not overly impressive, but this was his rookie season. Jones also covers a lot of ground in the outfield to form a fantastic center field-right field duo with Markakis. He certainly has plenty of room to improve, but Jones certainly possesses the tools to do so.
There’s no doubt that Jones has the potential to be exceptional on the field, but he’s already special off of it. First of all, he’s not afraid to take pictures for Yahoo! Sports with his eyes closed. Second, he hates to miss games, evident by his constant nagging of Dave Trembley to let him back on the field when he was dealing with a fractured foot. Trembley obviously had enough to deal with this year with a crumbling pitching staff, but the image of Jones asking, “Can I play now, Coach?” on a daily basis was (and still is) pretty funny.
#10 -- The limited appearances by Lou Montanez and Oscar Salazar.
When Jones was placed on the disabled list in early August, the Orioles purchased Lou Montanez’s contract from Double-A Bowie. At the time, Montanez had hit .335 with 26 HRs and 97 RBI in 116 games and was leading the Eastern League in all three Triple Crown categories. When the Bowie regular season ended about a month later, Montanez was still in the lead to clinch the Eastern League’s first Triple Crown since 1976. He also won the MVP award for his outstanding season.
Though he still needs to improve his outfield skills, Montanez, who turns 27 in December, played very well in the first 38 games in the majors of his career. The former third overall pick in the 2000 MLB Draft hit .295 with 3 HRs, 14 RBI, and a respectable .763 OPS. He also managed to homer in his first major league at bat against the Angels, which will leave him with an amazing memory for the rest of his life even if he ends up back in the minors next season.
Injuries and infield concerns also presented some playing time for 30-year-old Oscar Salazar. Mainly a corner infielder and designated hitter, Salazar batted .284 with 5 HRs, 15 RBI, and an OPS of .879. The 34 games played with the Orioles were the first for Salazar since a brief 8-game appearance with the Detroit Tigers in 2002.
The Orioles always appear to be looking for serviceable bench players, and both Montanez and Salazar deserve a chance to stick around next season.
Other notables: The great offensive seasons by Roberts and Markakis; this gem from Joe Angel: "Trachsel's taking a long time between pitches... well, if you had his stuff, you wouldn't want to throw it either"; Buck Martinez’s crazy hair; Juan Castro’s defense; listening to Gary Thorne say “Guillermo Quiroz,”; Jim Palmer’s random stories and love for In-N-Out Burger; Kevin Millar’s blond hair experiment; and his one-time at bat music after apparently losing a bet.
Negatives
#1 -- Another second-half collapse.
Nothing signals the end of summer like the annual Orioles collapse in the second part of the season. This season, the Orioles managed to tread water in late July (6-8) and August (11-17), but the epic implosion eventually came in September when the Orioles went an astounding 5-20. Yes, 5 wins and 20 losses.
The horrible final month capped off a 22-45 post All-Star Break record for the O’s, during which the Orioles happened to have separate losing streaks of 5 games (8/22-8/26), 8 games (8/29-9/6), and 10 games (9/17-9/26).
Both injuries and bad pitching certainly played a significant role in the team’s second-half downfall, but so did the schedule. The Orioles finished off the season with 37 games in this order: 3 vs. Boston, 3 vs. New York, 3 vs. Chicago, 3 vs. Tampa Bay, 3 vs. Boston, 2 vs. Oakland, 4 vs. Cleveland, 3 vs. Minnesota, 3 vs. Toronto, 3 vs. New York, 4 vs. Tampa Bay, and 3 vs. Toronto. Those eight teams finished the season with a combined record of more than 100 games over .500 (699-596). So the Orioles looked terrible as the season came to an end, but they had lots of help.
#2 -- Awful pitching.
Just posting the numbers:
Overall pitching: 13th (out of 14 teams) in AL in ERA (5.13), 14th in walks (687), 14th in strikeouts (922), and 13th in runs (869).
Starting pitching: Tied for 13th in ERA (5.51), 13th in innings pitched (882.0), 14th in walks (395), 14th in strikeouts (514).
Relief pitching: 11th in ERA (4.50), 3rd in innings pitched (540.0), 14th in walks (292), 7th in strikeouts (408).
Ouch.
#3 -- Daniel Cabrera’s pitching (and batting).
Since his debut with the team in 2004, the Orioles have been waiting for Daniel Cabrera to turn the proverbial corner and harness his raw skills. After yet another disappointing 2008 campaign, the Orioles may still be waiting in 2009 if the front office decides to bring him back since he’s eligible for arbitration and may get around $5 million.
Unfortunately for the Orioles, Cabrera’s performance this year was arguably the worst of his career. Cabrera finished the season on the disabled list with a right elbow sprain and the possibility of his back affecting his pitching at various points during the season. Some injuries may explain not only his awful numbers -- 5.25 ERA, 1.05 K/BB, 1.61 WHIP, .286 BAA -- but also his fluctuating pitch speeds on the radar gun. Before this season, Cabrera consistently reached the upper 90s with his fastball; this season, he sometimes threw in the upper 80s to low 90s.
But to dismiss many of Cabrera’s troubles because of the possibility of an injury would be foolish; his pitching mechanics haven’t improved in five seasons, and he is usually among the league leaders in walks, hit batsmen, and wild pitches. This season was no different -- 2nd in the AL in walks (90), 1st in HBP (18), and 1st in wild pitches (15). It’s bad enough that Cabrera simply cannot correct his troubles on the mound; instead, every time he pitches and Jim Palmer is in the broadcast booth, Palmer lectures about how Cabrera’s mechanics seem to have deteriorated.
And the mention about Cabrera’s hitting is for this reason: in 14 career at bats, Cabrera has struck out 14 times. He’d probably have a better chance swinging a telephone pole.
#4 -- Watching the Orioles run the bases.
This one is pretty self-explanatory, but if it’s not, then it’s definitely Trembley-explanatory. Here are some comments from Trembley after the O’s ran themselves out of another inning on Sept. 22 against the Rays:
“We had two crucial baserunning mistakes. It's three balls and two strikes and you're running, and it's a fly ball. Don't you stop? It's not Kamikaze baseball. You don't just run until you're out. To me, that's just a total mental breakdown on his (Salazar's) part. Total. And to be honest to you, that's embarrassing to me and the club and the people who are watching the game. And I'm not burying him, but that's not right."
Orioles’ baserunners seem to frequently run themselves out of bigger innings by getting greedy or not paying attention. Also, many runners on the team don’t get good secondary leads and are pretty bad at going from first to third on a single. Sure, the O’s have many slow runners like Millar, Hernandez, Huff, Scott, Quiroz, and Salazar, but slow runners can still pay attention and take the extra base when necessary.
#5 -- Jamie Walker.
Walker, 37, was placed on the disabled list in late June with inflammation in his left elbow. He battled back to rejoin the Orioles in about a month, but he appeared to still be feeling the effects of the same injury and just wasn’t the same pitcher.
His numbers show just how ineffective he was this year: 6.87 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, .325 BAA. Left-handed batters hit .304 off of him and had 7 HRs. Even though he has one more year left on his contract, the Orioles may choose to let him walk and cut their losses.
#6 -- Luis Hernandez and Freddie Bynum both failing to keep the shortstop job.
When the Orioles started the season with Luis Hernandez as the starting shortstop, Hernandez wasn’t asked to do much. He was supposed to play solid defense and maybe hit around .250. But he didn’t have much range at shortstop (he’s more of a second baseman), and he batted .241, had a .295 OBP, and had only one extra-base hit, a double, in 79 at bats.
So, when Bynum was activated from the disabled list on May 8, the Orioles handed him the starting shortstop job and asked him to do the same. Instead, Bynum proceeded to produce at a lower level than even Hernandez did. Bynum, who also isn’t really a shortstop, didn’t play good defense; he made 5 errors in 32 starts and didn’t get to many hits to the left or right of him. (Remember how this game ended?) He was also horribly unproductive at the plate: .179 AVG, 0 HRs, 8 RBI, .444 OPS.
The inability of both Hernandez and Bynum led to fans being forced to watch Alex Cintron play the infield like Roger Dorn before he found out that Rachel Phelps wanted to move the team to Florida and get rid of all the players in Major League. At least the team traded for Juan Castro, who didn’t hit well but actually fielded his position -- imagine that.
#7 -- Ramon Hernandez’s relatively unproductive season.
Hernandez had a sluggish year behind the plate; in 118 starts, he was tied for 2nd in the AL in errors among catchers (9) and 3rd in passed balls (9). Though the pitching staff didn’t help him to hold runners very efficiently, Hernandez also played a significant role in allowing 99 stolen bases, the most in the AL. Only two everyday catchers had worse numbers in the running game than Hernandez (.195 caught stealing percentage): A.J. Pierzynski (.186) and John Buck (.174).
As far as hitting, Hernandez had a very solid second half. He hit .288 with 7 HRs and a .791 OPS after the All-Star Break, but he hit just .237 with 8 HRs and a .747 OPS before the break. For someone who made $7.5 million this season, those numbers just don’t add up.
Other notables: Having Orioles pitchers give up leads almost immediately after getting them; watching Daniel Cabrera cover first base; lots of injuries; the possible return of Danys Baez to the bullpen next season; Rick Dempsey in the broadcast booth; Mark Viviano as the sideline reporter instead of Amber Theoharis; horrible camera angles and the lack of replays from MASN; and starters routinely going fewer than 5 innings.
Even though this season didn’t end well, there’s always next year. Besides, the Orioles have plenty of things to look forward to next season and in seasons to come; nonetheless, the front office has plenty of important decisions to make in the offseason.
I’ll try to go over most of them in the next post.
Finishing in last place is never a good thing, but the Orioles do happen to play in one of the best, if not the best, division in MLB -- the AL East.
The AL East was one of two divisions in baseball with four teams -- the Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays -- that finished at least 10 games above .500. The other division was the NL Central, with the Cubs, Brewers, Astros, and Cardinals all at least 10 games above the .500 mark, and it took an insane 36-16 run by the Astros from the start of the second half to Carlos Zambrano’s no-hitter in the controversial two-game series in Milwaukee to be among those four.
Because the AL East is so tough, all five teams in the division finished at the top in strength of schedule. The Orioles (68-93) had an awful 22-50 record inside the division and were just 16-32 versus left-handed starting pitchers.
The Orioles, though, had a pretty good offense (except for a slow start and a sluggish finish): 11th in runs scored (782), 9th in total bases (2,384), tied for 10th in OPS (.762), 6th in doubles (322), tied for 13th in home runs (172), and 11th in batting average (.267).
While the hitting was surprisingly impressive, the pitching was dreadful. I’ve covered the Orioles’ terrible pitching in other posts, though, so I don’t think I need to waste much more time recounting the horror again; I’m looking at you, Steve Trachsel, Fernando Cabrera, Garrett Olson, Brian Burres, Bob McCrory, Jamie Walker, Kam Mickolio, Greg Aquino, Radhames Liz, Daniel Cabrera, Ryan “Ice Man” Bukvich, and Adam Loewen (pre-injury).
Anyway, let’s go through some of the positives and negatives of the season.
Positives
#1 -- Aubrey Huff’s great season.
Where did this come from? In January of 2007, the Orioles signed Huff to a 3-year, $20 million contract. In his first year with the O’s, Huff hit .280, but he hit only 15 HRs, drove in only 72 runs, and finished with a .337 OBP and a .779 OPS. Those numbers are decent for a hitter towards the bottom of the lineup -- not someone batting fourth or fifth in the majors.
This season, though, Huff had his best year since 2003 when he was playing with the Rays. That season, Huff hit .311/.367/.555 with 34 HRs and 107 RBI. This year, Huff hit .304/.360/.552 with 32 HRs and 107 RBI -- very similar. Huff finished 5th in the AL in OPS and tied for 8th in homers. He hit more home runs than Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau, and Carlos Pena. He also had 82 extra base hits (most in the AL) and stayed healthy all season (154 games played), which is something many of the Orioles weren’t able to do as the long season rolled along.
His dramatically improved presence at the plate was certainly one of the reasons why the Orioles offense was better than last season’s.
#2 -- The steady pitching of Jeremy Guthrie.
Guthrie was an outstanding starting pitcher this season on a team that, at the moment, only has one reliable starter. Guthrie finished with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, 120 strikeouts (5.66 K/9), and only 58 walks in 190.2 innings pitched. Opposing batters also hit just .242 off of Guthrie.
Unfortunately, the Orioles didn’t really take advantage of many of Guthrie’s starts, and he finished the season with a 10-12 record. Meanwhile, a pitcher like Garrett Olson, with an atrocious 6.65 ERA, had a 9-10 record. So the next time that someone tries to point out a pitcher’s worth and immediately points to the number of wins or the win-loss record, simply ignore them.
#3 -- The players received in the Miguel Tejada trade: Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, and Troy Patton.
The latter of these four, Patton, has yet to pitch for the Orioles because of a left labrum tear. But he’s only 23 years old, and he is hoping to recover in time to make the club next season.
Scott is a very streaky hitter, and this season was no different. He will probably never hit higher than .275 in a full season, but he did add some pop to the Orioles lineup by hitting 23 HRs and driving in 65 runs. His .807 OPS this season was actually a huge upgrade over the everyday left fielder last season, Jay Payton, who had a .668 OPS and only 7 HRs in 434 at bats in 2007.
Albers was pitching very well (3.49 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, .240 BAA) before an MRI revealed a partially-torn labrum in his right shoulder. Albers decided against having surgery and chose to rehab instead. If Albers, 25, is healthy enough to pitch at the start of next season, he may end up in the starting rotation.
Sarfate was also impressive in his first season with the Orioles. His overall numbers -- 4.74 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 86 Ks, 1.39 K/BB -- were not good at all, but they include his four starts (or disasters) on the mound. In those four starts, Sarfate amassed a 10.34 ERA in 15.2 innings pitched; however, as a reliever, Sarfate had a 3.38 ERA in 64 innings pitched and struck out 71 batters. His brief stint as a starting pitcher may have shown him that the way for him to succeed is as a reliever.
Interestingly enough, Sarfate also pitched most of the season with a fractured clavicle in his right shoulder. According to MASN’s Roch Kubatko in this blog post, “[t]he fracture occurred while Sarfate was moving into his new home [in April]. He bent over to pick up a set of keys that he dropped, and the door that he swung open slammed into his shoulder.” He ended the season on the 15-day disabled list, but he should be fine after he rests in the offseason.
#4 -- Melvin Mora’s second-half surge. (Yes, it’s not really a half -- whatever.)
Before a hamstring injury slowed him down with a few weeks left in the season, Mora was having arguably the best second half of any hitter in the American League. Mora hit .376 after the break; only one other player in MLB had a higher average over that period with as many at bats: Manny Ramirez (.388). Mora’s other numbers over that time period include 12 HRs, 55 RBI, and a 1.073 OPS.
Mora still finished the season with solid numbers -- .285/.342/.483, 23 HRs, 104 RBI -- but it would have been nice to see him able to complete the season while playing at such a high level.
#5 -- The first-half performances of George Sherrill and Jim Johnson.
George Sherrill and his flat-billed cap brought some stability to the Orioles bullpen in the first part of the season. Before the All-Star Break, Sherrill had a 4.08 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 39.2 innings pitched; he also accumulated 28 saves. But after the break, Sherrill pitched only 13.2 innings and put up some bad numbers: 6.59 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 3 saves. He also missed about a month battling some shoulder inflammation. There are two possibilities for Sherrill’s poor second half: 1) He pitched only 45.2 innings in 2007, so maybe the workload this season was too much for him; and 2) The All-Star Game went 15 innings, and AL manager Terry Francona had Sherrill throw 2.1 innings, which may have added some fatigue to Sherrill’s arm.
Nonetheless, Sherrill’s pitching in the first half was just an added bonus to the ample rewards the Orioles received in the Erik Bedard trade.
Another welcome surprise was the presence of 25-year-old Jim Johnson, who didn’t even start out with the Orioles on Opening Day. But Johnson was brought up after making one start for Norfolk, and he soon became the primary set-up man for Sherrill in the bullpen. Johnson’s numbers from April through July -- 53.1 IP, 2.03 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .181 BAA -- were fantastic, and he deserved to be the Orioles’ representative in the All-Star Game more than Sherrill.
But like Sherrill, Johnson began to fade a bit -- 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, .323 BAA -- after the break. He was shut down for the rest of the season in early September when an MRI revealed damage in his shoulder. He was heavily relied upon in the first portion of the season, which may have been the reason for his shoulder problems.
In the minors he had been a starting pitcher; in 2007, he threw 148 innings for the Norfolk Tides. Perhaps Johnson’s arm wasn’t completely ready for the demanding role of set-up man, but he should be fine for the start of spring training.
#6 -- Dave Trembley’s old-school coaching and post-game reactions.
No manager is perfect, and Trembley certainly had his fair share of questionable decisions as far as bringing in various relievers. But he did a good job with the hand he was dealt this season. Trembley also had the team playing at an extremely high level before the team’s abrupt collapse in August/September.
Also, I thoroughly enjoyed Trembley’s post-game press conferences and interviews. He’s always mad when the team loses, as he should be, and he doesn’t hide the fact that he hates answering questions instead of being in the clubhouse talking with his players. His face almost always turns bright red; it’s an intimidating appearance. He’s not afraid to say what he feels is right or what needs to be said in certain situations. He’ll defend his players or call them out if he feels it’s necessary. Trembley is accountable for whatever happens on the field and aware of what it will take to turn this team around.
#7 -- Jay Payton won’t be back next season.
Payton plays the game hard; I understand that. He runs hard down the first-base line, he hustles after every ball in the outfield, and he’s not afraid to bang into the wall to make a catch. In a way, he’s kind of like David Eckstein: the guy who just plays the game “the right way” and looks like he’s giving everything he has. Well, that’s fine and dandy after a while, but when a team is losing and that player isn’t performing all that well, it doesn’t matter as much. When Eckstein was playing on World Series winners like the 2002 Angels and the 2007 Cardinals, it didn’t matter that he only had OPS’s of .751 and .738, respectively, because he played decent defense, moved runners over, and put the ball in play. Winning games makes individual players’ deficiencies matter less. Now, I bet you couldn’t even guess what team Eckstein finished the season with. (It’s the Arizona Diamondbacks, by the way.)
The two seasons in Baltimore have been the worst of Payton’s career. I mentioned his 2007 stats earlier, but his numbers this season were worse. He only hit .243 and had an OPS of .637, which is very bad. Sure, he basically played in a platoon role because of Luke Scott in left field, but Payton still had over 330 at bats -- he just didn’t hit well or get on base much. And that’s not even considering the fact that Payton made $4.5 million in 2007 and $5 million in 2008.
#8 -- Nick Markakis’s defense.
Markakis led all ML outfielders in assists this season with 17, and he committed just 3 errors while playing in 157 games. At the beginning of the season, opposing runners challenged Markakis; many of them soon learned that wasn’t such a good idea. Besides throwing runners out, he also made numerous outstanding diving catches and played solid all-around defense in right field.
#9 -- The presence of Adam Jones.
Having Jones in center field this season was a breath of fresh air for Orioles fans. Not only is he a solid player, but he’s only 23 years old. His numbers -- .270/.311/.400, 9 HRs, 57 RBI, 10 SB -- are not overly impressive, but this was his rookie season. Jones also covers a lot of ground in the outfield to form a fantastic center field-right field duo with Markakis. He certainly has plenty of room to improve, but Jones certainly possesses the tools to do so.
There’s no doubt that Jones has the potential to be exceptional on the field, but he’s already special off of it. First of all, he’s not afraid to take pictures for Yahoo! Sports with his eyes closed. Second, he hates to miss games, evident by his constant nagging of Dave Trembley to let him back on the field when he was dealing with a fractured foot. Trembley obviously had enough to deal with this year with a crumbling pitching staff, but the image of Jones asking, “Can I play now, Coach?” on a daily basis was (and still is) pretty funny.
#10 -- The limited appearances by Lou Montanez and Oscar Salazar.
When Jones was placed on the disabled list in early August, the Orioles purchased Lou Montanez’s contract from Double-A Bowie. At the time, Montanez had hit .335 with 26 HRs and 97 RBI in 116 games and was leading the Eastern League in all three Triple Crown categories. When the Bowie regular season ended about a month later, Montanez was still in the lead to clinch the Eastern League’s first Triple Crown since 1976. He also won the MVP award for his outstanding season.
Though he still needs to improve his outfield skills, Montanez, who turns 27 in December, played very well in the first 38 games in the majors of his career. The former third overall pick in the 2000 MLB Draft hit .295 with 3 HRs, 14 RBI, and a respectable .763 OPS. He also managed to homer in his first major league at bat against the Angels, which will leave him with an amazing memory for the rest of his life even if he ends up back in the minors next season.
Injuries and infield concerns also presented some playing time for 30-year-old Oscar Salazar. Mainly a corner infielder and designated hitter, Salazar batted .284 with 5 HRs, 15 RBI, and an OPS of .879. The 34 games played with the Orioles were the first for Salazar since a brief 8-game appearance with the Detroit Tigers in 2002.
The Orioles always appear to be looking for serviceable bench players, and both Montanez and Salazar deserve a chance to stick around next season.
Other notables: The great offensive seasons by Roberts and Markakis; this gem from Joe Angel: "Trachsel's taking a long time between pitches... well, if you had his stuff, you wouldn't want to throw it either"; Buck Martinez’s crazy hair; Juan Castro’s defense; listening to Gary Thorne say “Guillermo Quiroz,”; Jim Palmer’s random stories and love for In-N-Out Burger; Kevin Millar’s blond hair experiment; and his one-time at bat music after apparently losing a bet.
Negatives
#1 -- Another second-half collapse.
Nothing signals the end of summer like the annual Orioles collapse in the second part of the season. This season, the Orioles managed to tread water in late July (6-8) and August (11-17), but the epic implosion eventually came in September when the Orioles went an astounding 5-20. Yes, 5 wins and 20 losses.
The horrible final month capped off a 22-45 post All-Star Break record for the O’s, during which the Orioles happened to have separate losing streaks of 5 games (8/22-8/26), 8 games (8/29-9/6), and 10 games (9/17-9/26).
Both injuries and bad pitching certainly played a significant role in the team’s second-half downfall, but so did the schedule. The Orioles finished off the season with 37 games in this order: 3 vs. Boston, 3 vs. New York, 3 vs. Chicago, 3 vs. Tampa Bay, 3 vs. Boston, 2 vs. Oakland, 4 vs. Cleveland, 3 vs. Minnesota, 3 vs. Toronto, 3 vs. New York, 4 vs. Tampa Bay, and 3 vs. Toronto. Those eight teams finished the season with a combined record of more than 100 games over .500 (699-596). So the Orioles looked terrible as the season came to an end, but they had lots of help.
#2 -- Awful pitching.
Just posting the numbers:
Overall pitching: 13th (out of 14 teams) in AL in ERA (5.13), 14th in walks (687), 14th in strikeouts (922), and 13th in runs (869).
Starting pitching: Tied for 13th in ERA (5.51), 13th in innings pitched (882.0), 14th in walks (395), 14th in strikeouts (514).
Relief pitching: 11th in ERA (4.50), 3rd in innings pitched (540.0), 14th in walks (292), 7th in strikeouts (408).
Ouch.
#3 -- Daniel Cabrera’s pitching (and batting).
Since his debut with the team in 2004, the Orioles have been waiting for Daniel Cabrera to turn the proverbial corner and harness his raw skills. After yet another disappointing 2008 campaign, the Orioles may still be waiting in 2009 if the front office decides to bring him back since he’s eligible for arbitration and may get around $5 million.
Unfortunately for the Orioles, Cabrera’s performance this year was arguably the worst of his career. Cabrera finished the season on the disabled list with a right elbow sprain and the possibility of his back affecting his pitching at various points during the season. Some injuries may explain not only his awful numbers -- 5.25 ERA, 1.05 K/BB, 1.61 WHIP, .286 BAA -- but also his fluctuating pitch speeds on the radar gun. Before this season, Cabrera consistently reached the upper 90s with his fastball; this season, he sometimes threw in the upper 80s to low 90s.
But to dismiss many of Cabrera’s troubles because of the possibility of an injury would be foolish; his pitching mechanics haven’t improved in five seasons, and he is usually among the league leaders in walks, hit batsmen, and wild pitches. This season was no different -- 2nd in the AL in walks (90), 1st in HBP (18), and 1st in wild pitches (15). It’s bad enough that Cabrera simply cannot correct his troubles on the mound; instead, every time he pitches and Jim Palmer is in the broadcast booth, Palmer lectures about how Cabrera’s mechanics seem to have deteriorated.
And the mention about Cabrera’s hitting is for this reason: in 14 career at bats, Cabrera has struck out 14 times. He’d probably have a better chance swinging a telephone pole.
#4 -- Watching the Orioles run the bases.
This one is pretty self-explanatory, but if it’s not, then it’s definitely Trembley-explanatory. Here are some comments from Trembley after the O’s ran themselves out of another inning on Sept. 22 against the Rays:
“We had two crucial baserunning mistakes. It's three balls and two strikes and you're running, and it's a fly ball. Don't you stop? It's not Kamikaze baseball. You don't just run until you're out. To me, that's just a total mental breakdown on his (Salazar's) part. Total. And to be honest to you, that's embarrassing to me and the club and the people who are watching the game. And I'm not burying him, but that's not right."
Orioles’ baserunners seem to frequently run themselves out of bigger innings by getting greedy or not paying attention. Also, many runners on the team don’t get good secondary leads and are pretty bad at going from first to third on a single. Sure, the O’s have many slow runners like Millar, Hernandez, Huff, Scott, Quiroz, and Salazar, but slow runners can still pay attention and take the extra base when necessary.
#5 -- Jamie Walker.
Walker, 37, was placed on the disabled list in late June with inflammation in his left elbow. He battled back to rejoin the Orioles in about a month, but he appeared to still be feeling the effects of the same injury and just wasn’t the same pitcher.
His numbers show just how ineffective he was this year: 6.87 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, .325 BAA. Left-handed batters hit .304 off of him and had 7 HRs. Even though he has one more year left on his contract, the Orioles may choose to let him walk and cut their losses.
#6 -- Luis Hernandez and Freddie Bynum both failing to keep the shortstop job.
When the Orioles started the season with Luis Hernandez as the starting shortstop, Hernandez wasn’t asked to do much. He was supposed to play solid defense and maybe hit around .250. But he didn’t have much range at shortstop (he’s more of a second baseman), and he batted .241, had a .295 OBP, and had only one extra-base hit, a double, in 79 at bats.
So, when Bynum was activated from the disabled list on May 8, the Orioles handed him the starting shortstop job and asked him to do the same. Instead, Bynum proceeded to produce at a lower level than even Hernandez did. Bynum, who also isn’t really a shortstop, didn’t play good defense; he made 5 errors in 32 starts and didn’t get to many hits to the left or right of him. (Remember how this game ended?) He was also horribly unproductive at the plate: .179 AVG, 0 HRs, 8 RBI, .444 OPS.
The inability of both Hernandez and Bynum led to fans being forced to watch Alex Cintron play the infield like Roger Dorn before he found out that Rachel Phelps wanted to move the team to Florida and get rid of all the players in Major League. At least the team traded for Juan Castro, who didn’t hit well but actually fielded his position -- imagine that.
#7 -- Ramon Hernandez’s relatively unproductive season.
Hernandez had a sluggish year behind the plate; in 118 starts, he was tied for 2nd in the AL in errors among catchers (9) and 3rd in passed balls (9). Though the pitching staff didn’t help him to hold runners very efficiently, Hernandez also played a significant role in allowing 99 stolen bases, the most in the AL. Only two everyday catchers had worse numbers in the running game than Hernandez (.195 caught stealing percentage): A.J. Pierzynski (.186) and John Buck (.174).
As far as hitting, Hernandez had a very solid second half. He hit .288 with 7 HRs and a .791 OPS after the All-Star Break, but he hit just .237 with 8 HRs and a .747 OPS before the break. For someone who made $7.5 million this season, those numbers just don’t add up.
Other notables: Having Orioles pitchers give up leads almost immediately after getting them; watching Daniel Cabrera cover first base; lots of injuries; the possible return of Danys Baez to the bullpen next season; Rick Dempsey in the broadcast booth; Mark Viviano as the sideline reporter instead of Amber Theoharis; horrible camera angles and the lack of replays from MASN; and starters routinely going fewer than 5 innings.
Even though this season didn’t end well, there’s always next year. Besides, the Orioles have plenty of things to look forward to next season and in seasons to come; nonetheless, the front office has plenty of important decisions to make in the offseason.
I’ll try to go over most of them in the next post.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Orioles should consider bringing Mussina back
Unquestionably, the Orioles will have plenty of pitching concerns heading into the offseason.
Now, there are two ways of looking at the team's pitching dilemma. One, the O's have plenty of pitchers on the mend who should be fine heading into the 2009 season. A list of Oriole pitchers who are rehabbing or are shut down for the season includes Jeremy Guthrie (right shoulder), Matt Albers (partially torn labrum), Danys Baez (right elbow surgery), Daniel Cabrera (right elbow), Jim Hoey (right shoulder surgery), Jim Johnson (right shoulder), Troy Patton (left labrum surgery), Chris Ray (right elbow surgery), and Dennis Sarfate (right distal clavicle fracture). Hayden Penn's name can also be thrown in that list because he's almost always injured. George Sherrill recently returned from the disabled list and seems to be fine. Without a doubt, that's an impressive list, and most of them hope to be ready for the start of next season.
The Orioles, though, are never that lucky, so the second view is that the Orioles need to sign a few free agent starting pitchers. The last time the O's made a major move for free agent pitchers was in 2006 when the team signed Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Baez. Needless to say, the signings didn't (and haven't: Walker -- 5.97 ERA) exactly panned out.
A list of 2009 free agent starting pitchers can be seen here (scroll down a bit). In no particular order, the top names on the list of many teams will probably be: A.J. Burnett (if he opts out), Ryan Dempster, Jon Garland, Kyle Lohse, Mike Mussina, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia, and Ben Sheets. Some other intriguing but aging pitchers are: Paul Byrd, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers, and John Smoltz.
I have only heard one of the names above, Burnett, mentioned as being a possibility for the O's, and that appears to be because his wife is from the Baltimore area. Now, Burnett is having a good season (18-10, 4.19 ERA, 214 Ks, 1.35 WHIP, 206.1 innings pitched), but he's been injury prone throughout his career and would also ask for lots of money and a long-term deal. The O's would surely like to add a pitcher as talented as Sabathia or Sheets, but both will command huge contracts after this season.
That seems to leave one solution: sign one or two veteran starters to one or two year deals. Arguably, the two smartest and most dependable free agent options for the Orioles are Lowe and Mussina. Lowe's numbers this season -- 14-11, 3.40 ERA, 138 Ks, 1.14 WHIP -- have gone under the radar a bit, especially with the Dodgers where everyone has gone crazy over the presence of Manny Ramirez in that lineup. Lowe, 35, has had a pretty solid career and would certainly fill a large hole in the O's starting rotation. He is making $10 million this season, so the O's may not want to pay that much. He also probably wouldn't have the same kind of success in the AL East that he is having in the NL West, but he's better than most of the options the O's have right now.
Mussina will turn 40 in December, and he's had a solid season (18-9, 3.57 ERA, 141 Ks, 29 BB) for an underachieving Yankees team. Even if the O's signed Mussina for just one season, he'd provide a veteran presence for many of the younger pitchers and would eat a lot of innings since he avoids injuries. He also doesn't walk many hitters at all, while the O's lead both the AL and NL in walks allowed with 655 (so far). Signing Mussina would also bring him back to Baltimore where he was so dominant for 10 seasons. But two potential problems may arise if the O's are interested in Mussina: 1) He made $11 million this season, and the Orioles probably wouldn't pay that to Mussina for one or two seasons, and the Yankees or someone else might. 2) Mussina may not be interested in coming to a team coming off of a losing season; he still hasn't won a World Series yet.
In the end, the Orioles may decide to just go with their current roster and hope for the best. They will also have to figure out whether or not they want to bring back Daniel Cabrera; they probably won't if it costs more than $5 million.
But I know that I'm not the only one who doesn't want to see another makeshift rotation that includes any combination of Brian Burres, Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, Chris Waters, and Cabrera with Guthrie.
Now, there are two ways of looking at the team's pitching dilemma. One, the O's have plenty of pitchers on the mend who should be fine heading into the 2009 season. A list of Oriole pitchers who are rehabbing or are shut down for the season includes Jeremy Guthrie (right shoulder), Matt Albers (partially torn labrum), Danys Baez (right elbow surgery), Daniel Cabrera (right elbow), Jim Hoey (right shoulder surgery), Jim Johnson (right shoulder), Troy Patton (left labrum surgery), Chris Ray (right elbow surgery), and Dennis Sarfate (right distal clavicle fracture). Hayden Penn's name can also be thrown in that list because he's almost always injured. George Sherrill recently returned from the disabled list and seems to be fine. Without a doubt, that's an impressive list, and most of them hope to be ready for the start of next season.
The Orioles, though, are never that lucky, so the second view is that the Orioles need to sign a few free agent starting pitchers. The last time the O's made a major move for free agent pitchers was in 2006 when the team signed Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Baez. Needless to say, the signings didn't (and haven't: Walker -- 5.97 ERA) exactly panned out.
A list of 2009 free agent starting pitchers can be seen here (scroll down a bit). In no particular order, the top names on the list of many teams will probably be: A.J. Burnett (if he opts out), Ryan Dempster, Jon Garland, Kyle Lohse, Mike Mussina, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia, and Ben Sheets. Some other intriguing but aging pitchers are: Paul Byrd, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers, and John Smoltz.
I have only heard one of the names above, Burnett, mentioned as being a possibility for the O's, and that appears to be because his wife is from the Baltimore area. Now, Burnett is having a good season (18-10, 4.19 ERA, 214 Ks, 1.35 WHIP, 206.1 innings pitched), but he's been injury prone throughout his career and would also ask for lots of money and a long-term deal. The O's would surely like to add a pitcher as talented as Sabathia or Sheets, but both will command huge contracts after this season.
That seems to leave one solution: sign one or two veteran starters to one or two year deals. Arguably, the two smartest and most dependable free agent options for the Orioles are Lowe and Mussina. Lowe's numbers this season -- 14-11, 3.40 ERA, 138 Ks, 1.14 WHIP -- have gone under the radar a bit, especially with the Dodgers where everyone has gone crazy over the presence of Manny Ramirez in that lineup. Lowe, 35, has had a pretty solid career and would certainly fill a large hole in the O's starting rotation. He is making $10 million this season, so the O's may not want to pay that much. He also probably wouldn't have the same kind of success in the AL East that he is having in the NL West, but he's better than most of the options the O's have right now.
Mussina will turn 40 in December, and he's had a solid season (18-9, 3.57 ERA, 141 Ks, 29 BB) for an underachieving Yankees team. Even if the O's signed Mussina for just one season, he'd provide a veteran presence for many of the younger pitchers and would eat a lot of innings since he avoids injuries. He also doesn't walk many hitters at all, while the O's lead both the AL and NL in walks allowed with 655 (so far). Signing Mussina would also bring him back to Baltimore where he was so dominant for 10 seasons. But two potential problems may arise if the O's are interested in Mussina: 1) He made $11 million this season, and the Orioles probably wouldn't pay that to Mussina for one or two seasons, and the Yankees or someone else might. 2) Mussina may not be interested in coming to a team coming off of a losing season; he still hasn't won a World Series yet.
In the end, the Orioles may decide to just go with their current roster and hope for the best. They will also have to figure out whether or not they want to bring back Daniel Cabrera; they probably won't if it costs more than $5 million.
But I know that I'm not the only one who doesn't want to see another makeshift rotation that includes any combination of Brian Burres, Garrett Olson, Radhames Liz, Chris Waters, and Cabrera with Guthrie.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Don't mess with Trembley (Especially if you're not that good)
This isn't exactly shocking news, but the Orioles' pitching staff has been terrible lately. Since the all-star break, the Orioles have an MLB-worst team ERA of 6.30. Orioles' pitchers have given up 492 hits in 394 innings pitched. They've struck out 271 batters and walked 203, which averages out to a miniscule 1.33 K/BB ratio and an awful 4.64 walks per 9 innings.
But again, I'm sure you knew all that. But what you might not have known is that last Friday in a loss against the Tampa Bay Rays, Fernando Cabrera, who gave up 5 runs (4 earned) in 2 innings pitched, visibly angered manager Dave Trembley when he came to the mound to remove Cabrera from the game. Instead of handing Trembley the ball, Cabrera flipped it to him -- big mistake.
It was bad enough for Cabrera (5.40 ERA, 9 HRs allowed in 28.1 innings pitched) to be pitching poorly, but, as shown above, it's not like he was the only struggling pitcher on the team. But he brought attention to himself with that single move, even if it was surely just one out of obvious frustration.
The combination of the incident with Trembley in Tampa Bay with the rest of his incidents on the mound of giving up multiple runs was enough to justify Cabrera's release today. Trembley offered a few choice words on the matter:
Whether or not Cabrera is a milkshake drinker isn't clear. But what is evident is that at this point in time, it's somewhat acceptable to be a mediocre pitcher on the Orioles. But if someone doesn't display some class and decides to show up Trembley instead, he's gone. Of course, that player being Fernando Cabrera certainly made the decision a bit easier.
But again, I'm sure you knew all that. But what you might not have known is that last Friday in a loss against the Tampa Bay Rays, Fernando Cabrera, who gave up 5 runs (4 earned) in 2 innings pitched, visibly angered manager Dave Trembley when he came to the mound to remove Cabrera from the game. Instead of handing Trembley the ball, Cabrera flipped it to him -- big mistake.
It was bad enough for Cabrera (5.40 ERA, 9 HRs allowed in 28.1 innings pitched) to be pitching poorly, but, as shown above, it's not like he was the only struggling pitcher on the team. But he brought attention to himself with that single move, even if it was surely just one out of obvious frustration.
The combination of the incident with Trembley in Tampa Bay with the rest of his incidents on the mound of giving up multiple runs was enough to justify Cabrera's release today. Trembley offered a few choice words on the matter:
"I think you always make evaluations based on performance first. Not everybody here is a milkshake drinker. They're not all guys that you'd want to bring home and introduce to your daughters. You understand that. But performance is the bottom line. I didn't see Fernando Cabrera fitting in on this club next year. I think we can do better. I told him I appreciated what he did, but I didn't see him making this club coming out of spring training. I think there is no substitute at any time for respect and integrity."
Whether or not Cabrera is a milkshake drinker isn't clear. But what is evident is that at this point in time, it's somewhat acceptable to be a mediocre pitcher on the Orioles. But if someone doesn't display some class and decides to show up Trembley instead, he's gone. Of course, that player being Fernando Cabrera certainly made the decision a bit easier.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
O's offense still producing
The Orioles put up 16 runs against the Detroit Tigers today to take the third game of the series and two out of three. The O's (60-63) went 4-3 on their most recent road trip which included four games in Cleveland.
With so much unexpected production from Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, Adam Jones (before his injury), and Luke Scott, the Orioles' offense is in some pretty impressive company at this point in the season. The offense is fourth in MLB in runs scored with 618 -- 32 more than the Yankees have scored. The O's are also 10th in HRs (138), tied for 11th in on-base percentage (.336), 7th in slugging percentage (.438), and 6th in OPS (.780).
The O's can attribute their offensive explosion to very strong post-All Star break numbers. Since the break, the O's rank first in MLB in the following categories: runs (179), OPS (.864), batting average (.304), RBI (172), total bases (514), and extra base hits (115). They're also fourth in home runs with 37.
The significant amount of home runs is especially shocking since many of the same players in the lineup last season have already eclipsed their 2007 power numbers with 39 games still left to play this season.
Here are the numbers for part of the current lineup with their home run numbers from 2007 and so far in 2008. Remember, Luke Scott played with the Astros last year.
Brian Roberts -- 12/8/-4
Nick Markakis -- 23/17/-6
Melvin Mora -- 14/20/+6
Aubrey Huff -- 15/26/+11
Luke Scott -- 18/21/+3
Kevin Millar -- 17/18/+1
Ramon Hernandez -- 9/12/+3
These seven players have combined to hit 14 more home runs than they did last year. Roberts and Markakis haven't hit as many HRs, but they're also both having better seasons. Roberts is stealing fewer bases -- 30, compared to 50 in 2007 -- but his OPS is 38 points higher, and he's also hitting more doubles (44 up to this point). Markakis is also playing very well with an .894 OPS, which is 46 points higher than in 2007. He's also drawing tons of walks -- 76 so far -- and has a very impressive .401 OBP.
Mora's amazing post-All Star break numbers also deserve to be recognized. After a 5-6 day against the Tigers today, Mora is hitting an astounding .432 in 28 games and has a .461 OBP and a .780 SLG. That's right, Mora has a 1.241 OPS after the break. Even in 28 games, that's extremely impressive. Other notable stats during his superb run: 51 hits, 22 runs, 9 HRs, 43 RBI, and 92 total bases.
No one knows for sure what the future will bring for the O's. Some of these players may be traded before the start of next season, and all of them probably won't be back. But as a unit, they've all worked hard to put up plenty of runs and prove a lot of people wrong on how the Orioles would fare this season.
If they can do it for a little while longer, the O's may actually end up at .500 this season -- a task few people figured the Orioles could accomplish this season.
With so much unexpected production from Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, Adam Jones (before his injury), and Luke Scott, the Orioles' offense is in some pretty impressive company at this point in the season. The offense is fourth in MLB in runs scored with 618 -- 32 more than the Yankees have scored. The O's are also 10th in HRs (138), tied for 11th in on-base percentage (.336), 7th in slugging percentage (.438), and 6th in OPS (.780).
The O's can attribute their offensive explosion to very strong post-All Star break numbers. Since the break, the O's rank first in MLB in the following categories: runs (179), OPS (.864), batting average (.304), RBI (172), total bases (514), and extra base hits (115). They're also fourth in home runs with 37.
The significant amount of home runs is especially shocking since many of the same players in the lineup last season have already eclipsed their 2007 power numbers with 39 games still left to play this season.
Here are the numbers for part of the current lineup with their home run numbers from 2007 and so far in 2008. Remember, Luke Scott played with the Astros last year.
Brian Roberts -- 12/8/-4
Nick Markakis -- 23/17/-6
Melvin Mora -- 14/20/+6
Aubrey Huff -- 15/26/+11
Luke Scott -- 18/21/+3
Kevin Millar -- 17/18/+1
Ramon Hernandez -- 9/12/+3
These seven players have combined to hit 14 more home runs than they did last year. Roberts and Markakis haven't hit as many HRs, but they're also both having better seasons. Roberts is stealing fewer bases -- 30, compared to 50 in 2007 -- but his OPS is 38 points higher, and he's also hitting more doubles (44 up to this point). Markakis is also playing very well with an .894 OPS, which is 46 points higher than in 2007. He's also drawing tons of walks -- 76 so far -- and has a very impressive .401 OBP.
Mora's amazing post-All Star break numbers also deserve to be recognized. After a 5-6 day against the Tigers today, Mora is hitting an astounding .432 in 28 games and has a .461 OBP and a .780 SLG. That's right, Mora has a 1.241 OPS after the break. Even in 28 games, that's extremely impressive. Other notable stats during his superb run: 51 hits, 22 runs, 9 HRs, 43 RBI, and 92 total bases.
No one knows for sure what the future will bring for the O's. Some of these players may be traded before the start of next season, and all of them probably won't be back. But as a unit, they've all worked hard to put up plenty of runs and prove a lot of people wrong on how the Orioles would fare this season.
If they can do it for a little while longer, the O's may actually end up at .500 this season -- a task few people figured the Orioles could accomplish this season.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Orioles 2008 mid-season (sort of) report: Hitting and some defense part 2
I have already gone over the three best Oriole hitters from the first half -- Roberts, Markakis, and Huff -- so here's a brief summary of the rest of the offensive (and defensive) performances of the first half. Performances in this rundown are broken down from best to worst.
Adam Jones: .281 AVG / .324 OBP / .408 SLG / 5 HR / 41 RBI / 38 Rs / 8 SB / 3 CS
Jones, who turns 23 in August, seems to be progressing at a rapid pace this season. He hit .272 in April and just .226 in May, but in June he batted .323 and is currently hitting .341 in July. He's only hit five homers so far, but he does have 17 doubles and five triples. His .732 OPS is also good enough for fifth on the team right now. If Jones's OBP continues to rise, his value this season and beyond will grow, especially as he gains more power at the plate. Now batting second in the lineup, Jones adds some speed behind Roberts, and he has shown the occasional ability to bunt for some hits. The two-hole may not be where Jones ends up batting next season or in the future, but he's more reliable, at least right now, than another option like Mora. Plus, Markakis's power and ability to drive in runs is wasted there.
In the first half of his first full season in the majors, Jones also seems to be one of the best center fielders in the AL. He has committed two errors, but he has two assists and a .932 zone rating, which is good enough for second in the AL. (Zone rating is the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.) He has a tendency to miss the cutoff man by trying to show off his arm instead in situations that don't call for such a thing, but with more experience, his fundamentals should steadily improve.
Luke Scott: .254 AVG / .334 OBP / .474 SLG / 14 HR / 34 RBI / 38 Rs / 2 SB / 1 CS
Scott, who also has 16 doubles and one triple, has had a good first half of the season in left field for the O's. His .809 OPS ranks fifth among AL left fielders, as does his total of 14 home runs. Considering the Orioles are paying him $430,000, it's a pretty good trade-off when Miguel Tejada is now making $14.8 million with the Astros. And, oh yeah, Scott has more home runs than Tejada (14 to 10) and has an OPS that is 70 points higher. Even if Scott regresses some, he's already been a welcome addition to the team.
Scott is almost always replaced by Jay Payton late in games when the Orioles are ahead. Payton has more range than Scott, so the move makes sense, but when the O's blow the lead, fans are left to watch Payton struggle at the plate instead of having Scott at the dish. Scott has two assists, and he hasn't committed any errors; he may be replaced by Payton in the eighth and ninth innings, but it's not like he's playing left field like Jay Gibbons. Now that would be something to worry about.
Kevin Millar: .239 AVG / .339 OBP / .391 SLG / 12 HR / 47 RBI / 46 Rs / 0 SB / 1 CS
All-in-all, Millar had a decent first half. His .730 OPS is tied for eighth among AL first basemen, and it's 43 points higher than Paul Konerko's. His 12 home runs are sixth-best among AL first basemen, and his 49 walks are second. Though his average is low, his OBP is the reason why he's scored 46 runs. Millar is a decent option at first for the Orioles, who really don't have anyone else much better to replace him with at the moment.
Millar has played an above-average first base and has committed only three errors. He saves a lot of errors for other infielders by picking some tough throws out of the dirt, but that's exactly what a solid first baseman is supposed to do. He has decent range, but he makes the occasional mistake of not running to first himself and is sometimes caught out of place.
Melvin Mora: .233 AVG / .301 OBP / .387 SLG / 11 HR / 48 RBI / 44 Rs / 2 SB / 6 CS
I have now come to the portion of the roster that has been, well, pretty bad. Out of nine AL third basemen who qualify (meaning they have enough at bats), Mora ranks ninth in OBP and eighth in OPS (ahead of Jack Hannahan, whoever that is). The only bright spot for Mora has been when runners are in scoring position, except for that last game in Boston where he left 11 men on base. Mora is hitting .333 with RISP, .351 with RISP with 2 outs, and .333 with the bases loaded, which explains the 48 RBIs. The 11 home runs, tied for sixth among AL third basemen, help a bit, but he doesn't deserve to bat second or in the middle of the lineup until his numbers start to improve. It also doesn't help that Mora is one of the worst baserunners that I've ever seen. If you can identify another player who seems to get thrown out at second, third, and home more than Mora, I'm all ears.
Mora still plays, for the most part, pretty good defense at third. He's no Scott Rolen, Evan Longoria, or Mike Lowell, but he still has excellent range and the sixth-best fielding percentage among AL third basemen (.962). He doesn't have the best arm, but he has been getting the job done and makes some outstanding diving catches. Still, he needs to hit better -- obviously.
Ramon Hernandez: .238 AVG / .285 OBP / .379 SLG / 8 HR / 35 RBI / 27 Rs / 0 SB / 0 CS
To be blunt, Hernandez has been one of the worst full-time catchers in the AL, rivaling Kenji Johjima, Victor Martinez, and Jason Varitek, who somehow was voted in by the players to make the AL All-Star team. Hernandez's putrid .664 OPS ranks 14th among AL catchers with more than 150 at bats -- 44 points behind the A's Kurt Suzuki. Hernandez has played in 78 of the team's 93 games, and he hasn't hit this poorly since 2002 when he batted .233 with seven home runs and an OPS of .648.
Another surprise has been the deterioration of Hernandez's defense behind the plate. His eight errors committed are tied with Russell Martin for the most in MLB, and Hernandez's five passed balls are the most in both leagues. Hernandez's 61 stolen bases against are the second-most in baseball, and his .208 caught stealing percentage is 20th among catchers with at least 50 or more games started. Pitchers like Daniel Cabrera, who allow many stolen bases, are partially to blame, but those numbers are still pretty bad. The play of Hernandez is certainly worrisome for Orioles fans, but then again, with Matt Wieters waiting in the wings at Double-A Bowie, relief seems to be on the way next season.
Jay Payton: .243 AVG / .283 OBP / .370 SLG / 6 HR / 31 RBI / 21 Rs / 4 SB / 0 CS
Playing the role of the fourth outfielder, Payton (.653 OPS) has not had consistent playing time other than coming in for Scott as a defensive replacement in left field late in games. But part-time playing duty isn't really an excuse here; Payton put up similar numbers in a full season last year (131 games, 434 at bats, .256 average, .668 OPS, 7 HRs, 58 RBI). The one difference this year is that Payton already has six homers in 181 at bats, so that's a bonus. But other than those six home runs, Payton only has five extra base hits, all doubles; the rest of his hits are singles. The biggest problem with Payton is that he's a free swinger who doesn't get on base that much. Not only does he see few pitches in most at bats, but he rarely walks. He only has nine walks this season, and in all those at bats last year, he only walked 22 times! In fact, in his entire career, he's never walked more than 43 times in a season. (Remember, Markakis has already walked 59 times so far this season.)
The Orioles will surely try to trade Payton to a contender before the trade deadline, but it won't matter because there's no way the team brings him back after this season when his contract expires.
Guillermo Quiroz: .203 AVG / .276 OBP / .304 SLG / 2 HRs / 8 RBI / 10 Rs / 0 SB / 0 CS
Quiroz hasn't played enough (30 games) to really worry about breaking down his offensive numbers, but in limited time, his defense has been better than Hernandez's. He's committed one error, allowed two passed balls, and has 16 stolen bases against him. But he has caught eight runners stealing, good enough for a .333 caught stealing percentage. If a catcher isn't going to hit that well, you might as well have one who plays good defense.
Brandon Fahey: .230 AVG / .254 OBP / .344 SLG / 0 HR / 9 RBI / 4 Rs / 0 SB / 0 CS
Fahey's offensive numbers aren't good at all, but to be fair, he's not the long-term answer at shortstop. If he improves his hitting, he could become a serviceable bench/utility player for Dave Trembley. On defense, Fahey has committed three errors and has been decent.
Freddie Bynum: .179 AVG / .220 OBP / .223 SLG / 0 HR / 8 RBI / 12 Rs / 2 SB / 3 CS
If Fahey's offensive numbers are bad, then Bynum's stats are absolutely awful. Bynum had a chance earlier in the season to earn the starting shortstop spot for good, but he completely blew the opportunity. Right now, he's only on the roster because of the injury to Alex Cintron. With five errors committed, Bynum has not been good in the field either. Unfortunately for him, he might not have much of a future with the Orioles.
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All in all, the Orioles offense has been pretty good after a slow start. There is much room for improvement, obviously, at catcher, third base, first base, and shortstop. The fielding (tied for eighth in MLB with a .985 fielding percentage) has also been good, but not as strong as last season (.987).
One other thing: the Orioles are tied for second in the AL with the most runners caught stealing (28) but are just seventh in the league in stolen bases (58). For a team that doesn't swipe that many bases, a 67% stolen base percentage (tied for 11th in the AL) is very bad. Other than Roberts, Jones, Markakis, and Fahey in the everyday lineup, the O's don't have a lot of team speed. By getting thrown out by trying to make some things happen, they may actually be taking a few runs off the board. If the team is going to keep stealing, the 67% mark will need to improve.
Adam Jones: .281 AVG / .324 OBP / .408 SLG / 5 HR / 41 RBI / 38 Rs / 8 SB / 3 CS
Jones, who turns 23 in August, seems to be progressing at a rapid pace this season. He hit .272 in April and just .226 in May, but in June he batted .323 and is currently hitting .341 in July. He's only hit five homers so far, but he does have 17 doubles and five triples. His .732 OPS is also good enough for fifth on the team right now. If Jones's OBP continues to rise, his value this season and beyond will grow, especially as he gains more power at the plate. Now batting second in the lineup, Jones adds some speed behind Roberts, and he has shown the occasional ability to bunt for some hits. The two-hole may not be where Jones ends up batting next season or in the future, but he's more reliable, at least right now, than another option like Mora. Plus, Markakis's power and ability to drive in runs is wasted there.
In the first half of his first full season in the majors, Jones also seems to be one of the best center fielders in the AL. He has committed two errors, but he has two assists and a .932 zone rating, which is good enough for second in the AL. (Zone rating is the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.) He has a tendency to miss the cutoff man by trying to show off his arm instead in situations that don't call for such a thing, but with more experience, his fundamentals should steadily improve.
Luke Scott: .254 AVG / .334 OBP / .474 SLG / 14 HR / 34 RBI / 38 Rs / 2 SB / 1 CS
Scott, who also has 16 doubles and one triple, has had a good first half of the season in left field for the O's. His .809 OPS ranks fifth among AL left fielders, as does his total of 14 home runs. Considering the Orioles are paying him $430,000, it's a pretty good trade-off when Miguel Tejada is now making $14.8 million with the Astros. And, oh yeah, Scott has more home runs than Tejada (14 to 10) and has an OPS that is 70 points higher. Even if Scott regresses some, he's already been a welcome addition to the team.
Scott is almost always replaced by Jay Payton late in games when the Orioles are ahead. Payton has more range than Scott, so the move makes sense, but when the O's blow the lead, fans are left to watch Payton struggle at the plate instead of having Scott at the dish. Scott has two assists, and he hasn't committed any errors; he may be replaced by Payton in the eighth and ninth innings, but it's not like he's playing left field like Jay Gibbons. Now that would be something to worry about.
Kevin Millar: .239 AVG / .339 OBP / .391 SLG / 12 HR / 47 RBI / 46 Rs / 0 SB / 1 CS
All-in-all, Millar had a decent first half. His .730 OPS is tied for eighth among AL first basemen, and it's 43 points higher than Paul Konerko's. His 12 home runs are sixth-best among AL first basemen, and his 49 walks are second. Though his average is low, his OBP is the reason why he's scored 46 runs. Millar is a decent option at first for the Orioles, who really don't have anyone else much better to replace him with at the moment.
Millar has played an above-average first base and has committed only three errors. He saves a lot of errors for other infielders by picking some tough throws out of the dirt, but that's exactly what a solid first baseman is supposed to do. He has decent range, but he makes the occasional mistake of not running to first himself and is sometimes caught out of place.
Melvin Mora: .233 AVG / .301 OBP / .387 SLG / 11 HR / 48 RBI / 44 Rs / 2 SB / 6 CS
I have now come to the portion of the roster that has been, well, pretty bad. Out of nine AL third basemen who qualify (meaning they have enough at bats), Mora ranks ninth in OBP and eighth in OPS (ahead of Jack Hannahan, whoever that is). The only bright spot for Mora has been when runners are in scoring position, except for that last game in Boston where he left 11 men on base. Mora is hitting .333 with RISP, .351 with RISP with 2 outs, and .333 with the bases loaded, which explains the 48 RBIs. The 11 home runs, tied for sixth among AL third basemen, help a bit, but he doesn't deserve to bat second or in the middle of the lineup until his numbers start to improve. It also doesn't help that Mora is one of the worst baserunners that I've ever seen. If you can identify another player who seems to get thrown out at second, third, and home more than Mora, I'm all ears.
Mora still plays, for the most part, pretty good defense at third. He's no Scott Rolen, Evan Longoria, or Mike Lowell, but he still has excellent range and the sixth-best fielding percentage among AL third basemen (.962). He doesn't have the best arm, but he has been getting the job done and makes some outstanding diving catches. Still, he needs to hit better -- obviously.
Ramon Hernandez: .238 AVG / .285 OBP / .379 SLG / 8 HR / 35 RBI / 27 Rs / 0 SB / 0 CS
To be blunt, Hernandez has been one of the worst full-time catchers in the AL, rivaling Kenji Johjima, Victor Martinez, and Jason Varitek, who somehow was voted in by the players to make the AL All-Star team. Hernandez's putrid .664 OPS ranks 14th among AL catchers with more than 150 at bats -- 44 points behind the A's Kurt Suzuki. Hernandez has played in 78 of the team's 93 games, and he hasn't hit this poorly since 2002 when he batted .233 with seven home runs and an OPS of .648.
Another surprise has been the deterioration of Hernandez's defense behind the plate. His eight errors committed are tied with Russell Martin for the most in MLB, and Hernandez's five passed balls are the most in both leagues. Hernandez's 61 stolen bases against are the second-most in baseball, and his .208 caught stealing percentage is 20th among catchers with at least 50 or more games started. Pitchers like Daniel Cabrera, who allow many stolen bases, are partially to blame, but those numbers are still pretty bad. The play of Hernandez is certainly worrisome for Orioles fans, but then again, with Matt Wieters waiting in the wings at Double-A Bowie, relief seems to be on the way next season.
Jay Payton: .243 AVG / .283 OBP / .370 SLG / 6 HR / 31 RBI / 21 Rs / 4 SB / 0 CS
Playing the role of the fourth outfielder, Payton (.653 OPS) has not had consistent playing time other than coming in for Scott as a defensive replacement in left field late in games. But part-time playing duty isn't really an excuse here; Payton put up similar numbers in a full season last year (131 games, 434 at bats, .256 average, .668 OPS, 7 HRs, 58 RBI). The one difference this year is that Payton already has six homers in 181 at bats, so that's a bonus. But other than those six home runs, Payton only has five extra base hits, all doubles; the rest of his hits are singles. The biggest problem with Payton is that he's a free swinger who doesn't get on base that much. Not only does he see few pitches in most at bats, but he rarely walks. He only has nine walks this season, and in all those at bats last year, he only walked 22 times! In fact, in his entire career, he's never walked more than 43 times in a season. (Remember, Markakis has already walked 59 times so far this season.)
The Orioles will surely try to trade Payton to a contender before the trade deadline, but it won't matter because there's no way the team brings him back after this season when his contract expires.
Guillermo Quiroz: .203 AVG / .276 OBP / .304 SLG / 2 HRs / 8 RBI / 10 Rs / 0 SB / 0 CS
Quiroz hasn't played enough (30 games) to really worry about breaking down his offensive numbers, but in limited time, his defense has been better than Hernandez's. He's committed one error, allowed two passed balls, and has 16 stolen bases against him. But he has caught eight runners stealing, good enough for a .333 caught stealing percentage. If a catcher isn't going to hit that well, you might as well have one who plays good defense.
Brandon Fahey: .230 AVG / .254 OBP / .344 SLG / 0 HR / 9 RBI / 4 Rs / 0 SB / 0 CS
Fahey's offensive numbers aren't good at all, but to be fair, he's not the long-term answer at shortstop. If he improves his hitting, he could become a serviceable bench/utility player for Dave Trembley. On defense, Fahey has committed three errors and has been decent.
Freddie Bynum: .179 AVG / .220 OBP / .223 SLG / 0 HR / 8 RBI / 12 Rs / 2 SB / 3 CS
If Fahey's offensive numbers are bad, then Bynum's stats are absolutely awful. Bynum had a chance earlier in the season to earn the starting shortstop spot for good, but he completely blew the opportunity. Right now, he's only on the roster because of the injury to Alex Cintron. With five errors committed, Bynum has not been good in the field either. Unfortunately for him, he might not have much of a future with the Orioles.
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All in all, the Orioles offense has been pretty good after a slow start. There is much room for improvement, obviously, at catcher, third base, first base, and shortstop. The fielding (tied for eighth in MLB with a .985 fielding percentage) has also been good, but not as strong as last season (.987).
One other thing: the Orioles are tied for second in the AL with the most runners caught stealing (28) but are just seventh in the league in stolen bases (58). For a team that doesn't swipe that many bases, a 67% stolen base percentage (tied for 11th in the AL) is very bad. Other than Roberts, Jones, Markakis, and Fahey in the everyday lineup, the O's don't have a lot of team speed. By getting thrown out by trying to make some things happen, they may actually be taking a few runs off the board. If the team is going to keep stealing, the 67% mark will need to improve.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Orioles 2008 mid-season (sort of) report: Hitting and some defense part 1
At the All-Star break, the Orioles are 45-48 after 93 games. The team is last in the AL East behind the Blue Jays by one game, and the Orioles are ten games behind the division-leading Red Sox.
At times the O's have looked very good and very bad, which is the norm for an overachieving ballclub. I say overachieving because many analysts figured the Orioles would lose 100 or more games. To do that now, the Orioles would have to lose 52 of 69 remaining games, or 75.3% of those games. I shouldn't count the Orioles out of doing something like that, but it's just not going to happen.
One bad sign, though, is that the O's went in to the break losing eight of its last ten games.
The top third of the lineup has been one of the few bright spots for the O's this season: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Aubrey Huff. Although Adam Jones is now hitting second in the lineup (more on that later), Roberts, Markakis, and Huff have all put up solid numbers and any one of them could have been named to the All-Star team roster.
Brian Roberts: .296 AVG / .375 OBP / .489 SLG / 7 HR / 33 RBI / 62 Rs / 27 SB / 9 CS
Hitting out of the leadoff spot, Roberts has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers. His .864 OPS is second in the American League among second basemen behind Ian Kinsler of the Rangers, and his 27 stolen bases are tied for third-best in the league. His 33 doubles are one behind Kinsler's 34 for the most in the AL as well. Roberts has also been solid in the field; his 99.1% fielding percentage ranks fifth among AL second basemen.
Nick Markakis: .299 AVG / .401 OBP / .492 SLG / 14 HR / 50 RBI / 61 Rs / 9 SB / 4 CS
Now back in the third-slot in the lineup, Markakis has been the best Orioles hitter so far this season. His .892 OPS is 13th best in the AL, and he's fourth in the AL in OBP. He's on pace to hit around 30 home runs, which would be the most in his three full seasons (16 in '06, 23 in '07). Surprisingly, with his good eye at the plate, Markakis has struck out 74 times this season, but he's also compiled 59 walks -- two less than all of last season.
In the field, Markakis is tied for second in MLB with nine outfield assists. He has also only committed one error.
Aubrey Huff: .284 AVG / .349 OBP / .526 SLG / 18 HR / 59 RBI / 53 Rs / 2 SB / 0 CS
If Markakis has been the O's best hitter, then Huff is probably tied with Roberts for second-best. Huff's strong first half seemingly came out of nowhere, especially after his underwhelming 2007 season, which included a .280 average but only 15 homers and 72 RBIs. Huff, who mostly is in the lineup as a DH but can play first or third, is tied with Jim Thome for the second-most homers for DHs. If he had more at bats at first or third, Huff would also be second in homers at both positions. He even has more homers now than 2008 HR Derby champion Justin Morneau (14). The point is that Huff is finally hitting for power, which is what the Orioles signed him for.
As shown, Roberts, Markakis, and Huff are all major reasons why the Orioles currently rank sixth in the AL in runs scored with 439.
The next post will cover the rest of the Orioles position players and how they've fared so far this season.
At times the O's have looked very good and very bad, which is the norm for an overachieving ballclub. I say overachieving because many analysts figured the Orioles would lose 100 or more games. To do that now, the Orioles would have to lose 52 of 69 remaining games, or 75.3% of those games. I shouldn't count the Orioles out of doing something like that, but it's just not going to happen.
One bad sign, though, is that the O's went in to the break losing eight of its last ten games.
The top third of the lineup has been one of the few bright spots for the O's this season: Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Aubrey Huff. Although Adam Jones is now hitting second in the lineup (more on that later), Roberts, Markakis, and Huff have all put up solid numbers and any one of them could have been named to the All-Star team roster.
Brian Roberts: .296 AVG / .375 OBP / .489 SLG / 7 HR / 33 RBI / 62 Rs / 27 SB / 9 CS
Hitting out of the leadoff spot, Roberts has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers. His .864 OPS is second in the American League among second basemen behind Ian Kinsler of the Rangers, and his 27 stolen bases are tied for third-best in the league. His 33 doubles are one behind Kinsler's 34 for the most in the AL as well. Roberts has also been solid in the field; his 99.1% fielding percentage ranks fifth among AL second basemen.
Nick Markakis: .299 AVG / .401 OBP / .492 SLG / 14 HR / 50 RBI / 61 Rs / 9 SB / 4 CS
Now back in the third-slot in the lineup, Markakis has been the best Orioles hitter so far this season. His .892 OPS is 13th best in the AL, and he's fourth in the AL in OBP. He's on pace to hit around 30 home runs, which would be the most in his three full seasons (16 in '06, 23 in '07). Surprisingly, with his good eye at the plate, Markakis has struck out 74 times this season, but he's also compiled 59 walks -- two less than all of last season.
In the field, Markakis is tied for second in MLB with nine outfield assists. He has also only committed one error.
Aubrey Huff: .284 AVG / .349 OBP / .526 SLG / 18 HR / 59 RBI / 53 Rs / 2 SB / 0 CS
If Markakis has been the O's best hitter, then Huff is probably tied with Roberts for second-best. Huff's strong first half seemingly came out of nowhere, especially after his underwhelming 2007 season, which included a .280 average but only 15 homers and 72 RBIs. Huff, who mostly is in the lineup as a DH but can play first or third, is tied with Jim Thome for the second-most homers for DHs. If he had more at bats at first or third, Huff would also be second in homers at both positions. He even has more homers now than 2008 HR Derby champion Justin Morneau (14). The point is that Huff is finally hitting for power, which is what the Orioles signed him for.
As shown, Roberts, Markakis, and Huff are all major reasons why the Orioles currently rank sixth in the AL in runs scored with 439.
The next post will cover the rest of the Orioles position players and how they've fared so far this season.
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