Worried about the Orioles in the second half

I didn't expect the Orioles to win many games this season. In fact, I thought they were going to lose at least 100 and be one of the worst overall teams. Instead, the O's have gotten some very strong first-half performances, and they've put together a 45-40 record at the all-star break.

Unfortunately, a division like the AL East in unrelenting, meaning there are still plenty of games left against the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, who all have records of at least .500 or better. Also, with a -36 run differential -- the third-worst mark in the American League -- the O's have more wins than they probably should have, meaning they've been lucky. There's no guarantee that luck continues in their 77 remaining games.

Though his numbers have come down somewhat over the last few weeks, Adam Jones is hitting .289/.330/.534, which would be the best offensive season of his career if he continues to hit for that much power. The O's also locked Jones up with a long-term deal of six years, $85.5 million, which means he'll be in Baltimore through 2018 unless he's traded. Some were worried about owner Peter Angelos's recent unwillingness to spend money, but Jones's contract is the largest contract handed out in O's history. The deal was mostly lauded by fans and baseball analysts alike.

Besides Jones, Matt Wieters is having a nice year, hitting .247/.327/.431 and offering his typically strong defense behind the plate. Many expect better offensive numbers from Wieters, though it's fair to point to his .267 BABIP and note that he's been somewhat unlucky and may be due for a few more hits to drop in.

After Jones and Wieters, though, there isn't much to get excited about. J.J. Hardy is playing solid defense at shortstop, but he's struggling mightily at the plate, posting an on-base percentage of .262. I'm not sure that's being discussed enough. And he's doing that while hitting second in the lineup, which is far from ideal. Even more so than Wieters, Hardy has been unlucky (.233 BABIP), but the O's are going to need much more production from him if they're going to continue to win games. Nick Markakis was recently activated from the disabled list, and he should help the lineup. Still, he was hitting .256/.333/.452 in the first half, which is decent but certainly not great. And obviously the team's other regular hitters -- Wilson Betemit, Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, Jim Thome, Robert Andino, etc. -- don't strike that much fear into opposing pitchers. It also doesn't help that Nolan Reimold's lost for the season, and Brian Roberts might be as well.

Maybe that's why Dan Duquette has said that the O's need "to address the on-base percentage at the top of [the] lineup." There's no question that he's right. But it's important to note that Duquette is also exploring the possibility of dealing for another starting pitcher and has already traded two lower-level prospects for Thome. Since the O's most likely are not as good as their record indicates, trading any decent-to-great prospects away to win right now might not be a very good idea. Obviously no O's fans want to see the team trade Dylan Bundy or Manny Machado away, though the odds of that happening are slim to none. But would it even make sense to trade someone like Jake Arrieta or Xavier Avery for a rental starter or outfielder? I guess that simply depends on who that player would be, how he performs in Baltimore, and whether the O's keep winning games. Duquette is in a difficult position, particularly since the O's haven't finished with a winning record since 1997. They haven't even won more than 70 games since 2005. And if the O's do somehow finish with a winning record, it'll be a minor miracle since most people figured they'd be absolutely horrible.

And, as noted above, since the hitting isn't likely to improve all that much, it's going to come down to pitching -- something to also be concerned about. According to FanGraphs' wins above replacement numbers, the three best pitchers for the O's have been Jason Hammel (2.6), Jake Arrieta (1.6), and Wei-Yin Chen (1.1). Arrieta's inclusion is surprising, but his peripheral stats suggest he's been better than his 6.13 ERA indicates. (For more on Arrieta and not giving up on him yet, see this FanGraphs article from yesterday.) But besides Hammel and Chen, there isn't much to get excited about -- and there's also no guarantee that Hammel and Chen continue to pitch this well. Can a collection of starters, including Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Miguel Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, Tommy Hunter, and maybe Zach Britton or someone else, pitch well enough to get the job done? The depth of that list seems deeper than in seasons past, but if they aren't effective, it doesn't matter that much.

The bullpen also seems like it's due to regress a little bit, even with its AL-leading ERA of 2.75. Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day, Troy Patton, Jim Johnson, and Luis Ayala have all been very good. Collectively, they don't walk many batters (2.78 BB/9), but they don't strike out a ton either (7.2 K/9). They also have the third-highest left-on base percentage (80.3%) in the majors. Still, they get a ton of ground balls (49%) and don't give up many home runs (0.87 HR/9), which are both very good things. So even if the bullpen isn't quite as good, it should still be the best part of the team in the second half.

Team fWAR ranks:

Batting: 5.7 (last)
Starters: 5.8 (21st)
Relievers: 2.6 (9th)
All pitching: 8.4 (17th)
Fielding: -13.1 UZR (24th)

So, yeah, not overly positive numbers. Some O's fans are optimistic -- and good, I'm glad they are, because I like that. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about how this team will finish the season. They have a few key weaknesses, and a couple of mid-season trades won't rectify that.

Why the O's don't have to overpay for a first baseman

Let's take a look at three players' career stats:

Player A: .271/.339/.488, .351 wOBA
Player B: .282/.367/.498, .371 wOBA
Player C: .268/.354/.503, .365 wOBA

Player A doesn't get on base as much as the other two and also hits for slightly less power. Player B and Player C are pretty close, with B getting on base more and C hitting for a bit more power. Again, this comparison is just based on hitting and doesn't bring in other factors like age, fielding, etc., but if you had to choose, it would likely be in this order: B, then C, then A.

Player A is Adam LaRoche, Player B is Derrek Lee, and Player C is Luke Scott. In terms of overall production (not just hitting), they're not all on equal footing. Scott hasn't played much first base in his career and has played more left field and DH. Lee and LaRoche, meanwhile, are both exclusively first basemen. Also, Scott is 32, LaRoche is 31, and Lee is 35.

Now, obviously, the reasons why the Orioles are in the running for a first baseman are: 1) the Garrett Atkins experiment worked out horribly last season; 2) they don't really have any young first base prospects (outside of maybe Nolan Reimold, though he's never played the position at the major league level) who can fill the role; and 3) they're looking for an upgrade at the position, even if it's just for a year or two. And, really, if the O's end up signing Lee or LaRoche to a one-year deal, that's fine. But if they really did extend a three-year deal to LaRoche or are even considering it, I do have a problem with that. Lee is apparently seeking a one-year deal, which seems reasonable even if that deal ends up costing $7-$8 million -- something in that range. But what puts LaRoche in the three-year range? He's definitely an improvement over who the O's have had at first base the last few seasons, but that doesn't mean the O's should overpay for a non-elite first baseman who's already in his 30s. It would be hard to classify that type of signing as anything other than a desperate move.

Last season, Lee (2.1) and LaRoche (2.0) ranked 15th and 16th, respectively, out of all first basemen in WAR. (Ty Wigginton (0.3) ranked 22nd.) Picking either one up would make the O's better, sure, but it's not like it would greatly transform the team. Is it really worth it to sign someone like LaRoche to a multi-year deal just to gain possibly a couple of wins? Maybe, maybe not, though I'd vote no.

Buck Showalter has apparently made it known that he'd like to have a proven first baseman manning that position this year. That would mean that he'd welcome Lee or LaRoche to Baltimore -- as most fans would -- with open arms. I'm for that move, too, as long as the price is right. Why should the O's overpay when the only other two teams that seemingly are in the running are the Nationals and Padres? Baltimore and Washington seem like the two likely landing spots for Lee and LaRoche, not just because they may have the biggest needs at the position, but because they can probably spend a little more than San Diego.

At the trade deadline last year, the O's made the curious decision to not trade either Wigginton or Scott. Scott is still in Baltimore, but Wigginton bolted for Colorado. With Scott still around, the O's do have someone who can fill in at the position, if necessary. In his career, Scott has only played a total of 29 games at first, so it's not like he's completely comfortable playing the position. However, his hitting would likely make up for some subpar fielding, if he's able to improve enough to get to that level in the field.

Playing Scott at first isn't an ideal fall-back plan, but it does give the O's at least an option to go with if Lee or LaRoche decide to sign elsewhere. Signing a DH like Jim Thome or Vladimir Guerrero may even be better for the team offensively, though playing Scott at first would be a defensive risk.

So, basically, if the O's don't sign Lee or LaRoche, it may hurt the team a little, but probably not a whole lot. Remember, we're talking about a 35-year-old Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche. It's not the end of the world if the O's don't meet either player's contract demands.