MacPhail steps down, so what now?

The Orioles have announced that Andy MacPhail is leaving the organization and that he will not return as president of baseball operations. It was speculated for months that MacPhail would not return, and now it's official. Another popular rumor was that Buck Showalter would leave his managerial position to take over for MacPhail either as general manager or in another front office role, but Showalter will still be the team's manager next season.

According to Roch Kubatko, here are some candidates to replace MacPhail:

It's impossible to know every name that's been discussed and debated. I've floated a few, such as Marlins assistant general manager Dan Jennings and Blue Jays assistant general manager Tony LaCava.

The Sun's Dan Connolly recently expanded the list to include Jerry Dipoto (Diamondbacks senior VP), Gerry Hunsicker (Rays senior VP), former Orioles executives Wayne Krivsky and Scott Proefrock (Phillies assistant GM), Damon Oppenheimer (Yankees scouting director), A.J. Preller (Rangers senior director of player personnel), former Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi (Mets special assistant) and Scott Servais (Rangers senior director of player development.)

. . . Also, director of baseball operations Matt Klentak is regarded as an executive who will be a valuable asset to MacPhail's replacement. He's not currently seen as a candidate for the position, but his time is approaching.

MacPhail had his moments, but in the end he couldn't do enough to turn the organization around. The next GM (or president of baseball operations) will need to identify what the organization has done wrong when drafting, developing, and coaching minor league talent. The O's are in an extremely difficult position in the AL East and have to play tough competition year in and year out, but they also don't do themselves any favors by not developing a better group of young players, both through the draft and international scouting. Hopefully the next GM has some ideas on how to rectify those problems.

It's also worth wondering how much power the team's next GM will have. With Showalter still around, will he be the guy wielding the most power? Peter Schmuck thinks so:

There are all sorts of possibilities, but since both Angelos and Showalter are old-school personalities, it's fair to assume they won't be writing the script for the "Moneyball" sequel. If Showalter does not change his mind and unexpectedly jump upstairs, the next GM — or president of baseball operations — will likely be someone with whom he shares some history and someone who will fit into the Angelos comfort zone.

In other words, it will likely be an established fellow with some front office political skills and player-development experience rather than some twentysomething Ivy Leaguer carrying a spreadsheet and a cup of Starbucks into every meeting.

Again, that's all Schmuck's speculation, but it's possible considering how well Angelos and Showalter seem to get along. With Showalter likely to stick around next season and beyond, the O's aren't going to bring in someone that he won't be able to work with. Still, I'd like for the O's to be flexible and hire the best person for the position, not the guy most willing to agree with all of Showalter's opinions.

I like Showalter -- maybe not as much as when he first joined the O's -- but I'm not quite sure I want him to be the guy calling most of the shots for the organization. Still, Showalter does seem interested in the organization's young talent, and if he's committed to figuring out why most of the team's top prospects seem to fail when they join the major league club, then I guess it's fine if he needs to co-sign on whoever replaces MacPhail.

Facing important decisions, O's moving slowly

I've had a couple of people ask me what I think the Orioles will do this offseason, and I honestly have no idea. They could go big and sign a few free agents, they could add a couple of pitchers and a hitter or two, or maybe they will target a few low-priced, underappreciated players and hope they outperform expectations. But, really, the first step to the O's making any of those decisions is figuring out who the guy calling the shots is going to be, and there still seems to be some confusion over whether Andy MacPhail is going to return or if Buck Showalter will leave the dugout to take a front office position.

Like the rest of us, Peter Schmuck continues to wait:

Until there is a detemination on both fronts, it's hard to do more than speculate about the eventual composition and hierarchy in the Warehouse. MacPhail had given every indication that he would not remain after his contract expires at the end of this month, but the fact that he and the club have not made a quick announcement clearly indicates that Angelos wants him to stay connected to the club in some capacity. If he does, then it seems more likely that Showalter will remain in the dugout.

I like MacPhail and Showalter, but I'm not quite sure if I want either of them as the team's general manager (or president of baseball operations, or whatever). In MacPhail's case, I think he's done a decent job in his O's tenure, but I don't think he's taken enough chances. He's made a few solid trades, but there have also been some signings (Michael Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, and Vladimir Guerrero to name a few) that didn't make much sense and didn't have much of a chance of working out.

This decision is extremely important, mostly because the O's are faced with the difficult task of finding out exactly why so many of their top minor league players keep failing at the major league level. Matt Wieters and Zach Britton may have turned the corner, but what about Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Josh Bell, and Nolan Reimold? And those are just some names from the last few years; there have been dozens of talented players to come through the O's farm system who haven't gotten the job done. Is it a scouting thing? A coaching thing? It's probably a combination of both, but whatever the issue is, the O's need to eventually sort it out.

If the O's are ever going to be competitive again in the AL East, they'll need lots of contributions from their farm system, particularly their top prospects. Someone from outside the organization may view the team's problems differently than MacPhail or Showalter, but he'd also have to deal with Peter Angelos. And that's certainly no easy task.

Redskins face their first must-win against Rams

Heading into the season, most people figured the Redskins (2-1) would be an average to below-average team. I can recall only one analyst (NFL Network's Michael Lombardi) picking them to make the playoffs, and, predictably, he faced lots of criticism for doing so. Then the season started and the Redskins won their first two games.

Were they overly impressive wins? That's hard to tell, considering it's so difficult to accurately judge teams so early in the season. They beat an injury-depleted Giants team 28-14 in Week 1 and looked decent, though they needed an interception return by rookie linebacker Ryan Kerrigan to seize the lead in the third quarter and take control of the game for good. In Week 2 against the Cardinals, the Redskins again looked decent, racking up 455 yards of total offense and rushing for 172 yards. But they were also down 21-13 late in the fourth quarter and needed an 18-yard touchdown pass to Santana Moss on a fourth down play and a crucial 34-yard Graham Gano field goal to pull out the 22-21 victory.

Last week's 18-16 loss to the Cowboys on Monday, which the Redskins could have won if they had taken advantage of several opportunities throughout the game, was more of a typical Redskins game. But fans are well accustomed to those kinds of ugly, underwhelming performances, particularly on Sunday or Monday night games.

The Cowboys and Giants are both 2-1, and the Cardinals are 1-2. But no one has a handle on exactly how good those teams are just yet -- just like the Redskins.

So how bad are the 0-3 Rams? They've lost by double digits in all three of their games, but they've also faced some strong competition in the Eagles, Giants, and Ravens. But if the Redskins are truly a decent team, they'll go to St. Louis and beat a winless team, which would put them at 3-1 going into their bye week.

To prove the critics wrong and actually have a chance at a 9-7 or a 10-6 season, the Redskins must throw everything they have at the Rams and win this game. Essentially, it's a "kitchen sink" game for them. Not only would it be awful to lose going into a bye week, but if they do lose, there will be two weeks of negative talk about the team, focusing on all the things this team hasn't done and trying to come up with answers even if there aren't any. If Rex Grossman has a bad game against the Rams, I also expect a ton of talk about benching him in favor of John Beck. Whether or not that actually happens is another thing, but no one would be surprised to see Beck get a chance if the Redskins struggle in yet another important game. No one thought that Mike Shanahan would bench a healthy Donovan McNabb in favor of Grossman last season, so going from Grossman to Beck wouldn't that surprising of a move.

With a loss, all of the positives surrounding the 2-0 start will disappear. That means, basically, it would be another long, Redskins-like season. The Redskins have shown flashes, particularly on defense, of being an improved team. And after a disappointing loss to the Cowboys, they need to score early and often against a bad, wounded team. Anything less would be, well, expected.

Revisiting the O's deadline trades

At the non-waiver trade deadline (July 31), the Orioles made two moves. They were:

1) Koji Uehara and $2 million to the Rangers for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter; and

2) Derrek Lee and cash to the Pirates for Aaron Baker.

And in a waiver deadline (August 31) deal, the O's shipped Mike Gonzalez to the Rangers for cash. They then used that cash to claim Pedro Strop off of waivers. Essentially, it was a swap of Gonzalez for Strop.

The O's have made a flurry of other roster moves, bringing several players up and sending others down -- including designating Felix Pie for assignment and then assigning him to Norfolk once he cleared waivers -- but for the most part, that's a pretty common thing for most MLB clubs in September. So let's focus on the four players acquired in the three trades mentioned above.

Chris Davis

Davis has not collected a whole lot of service time in his career, meaning that the O's won't have to worry about paying him a bunch of money anytime soon. And that's positive news, because he probably wouldn't be around otherwise. By acquiring Davis (25) and Hunter (25) in exchange for Uehara, the O's took a chance on bringing in a couple of older players rather than actual prospects. And both players, mainly because of how thin the O's roster is, should receive plenty of playing time next season.

Davis will probably see his name in the lineup in most games next season at a corner infield position or designated hitter. And unless the O's go out and sign someone, there aren't many better options on the roster. Davis has played in 26 games and has only 109 plate appearances, but in that time he hasn't performed well. He has a slash line of .260/.294/.385 with the O's, and he's been striking out more (33.9%) and walking less (4.6%) than usual -- which is pretty tough considering he has a career 31.9 K% and a 6.5 BB%. He also doesn't bring much defensive value to the table; he appears to be a below average third baseman and an average first baseman. But if Mark Reynolds sticks around next season, he'll likely play first, which will push Davis to third or DH.

Davis has also been dealing with a shoulder injury basically since he arrived in Baltimore, so it may be unfair to judge his play. That's fine, and it's very possible that he plays much better next season if he's healthy. But his issues aren't just with this season; he doesn't have great overall numbers. In 1,062 career plate appearances, Davis has hit .249/.299/.447 -- not good. The ability to hit for power is obviously Davis's strongest attribute, but he doesn't get on base nearly enough. Taking more pitches and walking more would aid Davis tremendously, but that's not an easily acquired skill.

Tommy Hunter

Like Davis, Hunter has his flaws. He has a career pitching line of 4.55/4.71/4.51 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) in 330.2 innings, which suggests that he's been a little unlucky in his 64.1 innings with the O's (5.32/4.53/4.22). Hunter is essentially an innings eater right now, and he may end up in that role next year if the O's young pitchers continue to falter.

Hunter has barely been walking any opposing batters (0.98 BB/9), and he hasn't struck out many either (4.62 K/9). By all accounts, he doesn't have fantastic stuff, and he really shouldn't be in the rotation next season if everyone's healthy. But with the O's, that rarely happens, meaning that it's good to have someone like Hunter around, even if he's not spectacular. Hunter may be best utilized out of the bullpen, where he could give the O's three or four innings at a time.

So, basically, the O's traded a fantastic reliever (Uehara) and received two 25-year-old players with limited upside. Don't get me wrong: Both players could end up being useful. But that's not exactly the best way to go about furthering along a rebuilding process.

Aaron Baker

Baker, 23, is not viewed as a top prospect, which is why the Pirates were willing to part with him. In 12 games at Single-A Frederick, Baker hit well, posting a .386/.472/.591 line. But in 15 games at Double-A Bowie, he struggled and hit only .196/.188/.239. The O's were not going to receive much value for Lee, and Baker may never make it to Baltimore, though there's still time for him to do so. Regardless, the deal was reasonable because it got Lee off the roster and allowed Reynolds to move to first.

Pedro Strop

The most effective player the O's received, surprisingly, has been Strop (26). He's only pitched in 8.2 innings, but he's yet to give up a run and has already earned eighth-inning responsibilities. Whether or not that continues next season is another question entirely, but for now Strop is dealing. In those 8.2 innings, Strop has 11 strikeouts and two walks. FanGraphs' PitchFx data has Strop's fastball sitting at 94 mph (about his career average), and it also shows that Strop has been throwing more sliders (40.6% now, 27.2% career). Maybe that's a recipe for continued success, or maybe not.

Strop has only thrown 36 innings in the majors, so it's hard to take much of anything away from such limited experience. But the O's acquired him for someone that they didn't want on the roster and who wouldn't be on the team next year anyway (Gonzalez), meaning that it appears the O's did something right.

Strop won't keep pitching this well, and who knows what his true talent level actually is. But similar moves are the ones the O's should be making. The least-publicized move may end up being the best one. It's funny how things work sometimes.

Praising Santana Moss

Remember Laveranues Coles? When the Redskins signed him in 2003, they believed they had found their big-play wide receiver. Of course they believed that, because not only did they sign him to a seven-year, $35 million deal with $13 million guaranteed, but they also forfeited their first-round pick to the Jets since Coles was a restricted free agent. That selection ended up being the 13th overall pick.

The linked article also highlights two other interesting things from that offseason: 1) That was the offseason when the Redskins decided it would be a good idea to sign several Jets players, including Chad Morton, Randy Thomas, and John Hall; and 2) (it's probably better if I just quote this from the article):

Coles would fill Washington's need for a speedy, big-play receiver to play opposite Rod Gardner. They had originally planned to draft such a player -- such as University of Miami's Andre Johnson -- by trading picks to move up on draft day, but Coles would give them a proven talent at roughly the same price without risking a training camp holdout.

I'm against the Redskins trading draft picks; most Redskins fans are. But at the time, they were still wheeling and dealing with reckless abandon, as evidenced by the Coles trade. Still, it would have been pretty awesome for the Skins to end up with Andre Johnson, though it would have taken a lot to move up to select him since he was taken third overall by the Texans. Also, here are some players who were taken in the first and second rounds who would have been available at No. 13 had the Redskins not traded for Coles: Ty Warren, Troy Polamalu, Calvin Pace, Willis McGahee, Dallas Clark, Larry Johnson, Nick Barnett, Nnamdi Asomugha, Charles Tillman, Rashean Mathis, Anquan Boldin, and Osi Umenyiora. There were others, but you get the point. Oh, and with their first pick in the draft (at No. 44 in the second round), the Skins selected Taylor Jacobs out of Florida. Did I mention that the Steve Spurrier era was a disaster?

But back to Coles. Under Spurrier, Coles had a solid 2003-2004 season in his first year in Washington. He caught 82 passes for 1,204 yards and six touchdowns. But after that season, Spurrier resigned, and Daniel Snyder hired Joe Gibbs. Under Gibbs, a believer in establishing the run and continuing to pound the ball, Coles was not as productive. He had more catches (90) the next season, but only for 950 yards and a single touchdown. Predictably, Coles was unhappy:

[Coles:] "He [Gibbs] wasn't flexible. We didn't see eye to eye. I just felt like it [the offense] wasn't for me. He knew that. I knew that. So we felt that it was best that we both go our separate ways."

Coles and Gibbs held a couple of meetings to settle their issues, and Gibbs apparently even agreed to alter the play-calling to include more downfield passing instead of being so conservative. But for whatever reason, the two sides could not agree on anything concrete and Coles was traded back to the Jets in exchange for Santana Moss.

Even though the Redskins had to absorb a significant cap hit to get rid of Coles, they were happy to replace him with Moss. At the time, Moss was viewed as a talented playmaker:

In Moss, the Redskins obtain an explosive wide receiver with blazing speed who is also a dynamic punt returner.

"We're excited to have Santana Moss," Vice President Vinny Cerrato said yesterday in brief comments because the trade wasn't official. "He's been a touchdown-maker, and he has great speed."

Redskins fans eventually learned that anything Cerrato said should be taken with a grain of salt, but in this case he was right. Many were skeptical of the move because of Moss's hamstring issues, but looking back, he still played in at least 15 games in three of the four seasons with the Jets. The only season that he didn't -- in 2001, his rookie season -- was because of torn cartilage in his left knee, an injury he suffered in training camp.

Surprisingly, Moss didn't bring all of his return skills to the Redskins special teams unit -- not because he wouldn't have done well in that role, but because the Redskins had others to handle return duties and also because Moss flourished with a new offense. In fact, he's only returned 24 punts with the Redskins, though that does include his 80-yard return in 2008 against Detroit.

In the 2005-2006 season, Moss caught 84 passes for 1,483 yards and nine touchdowns. No one expected that kind of season, and it's not surprising that Moss hasn't put up those kinds of numbers again. It's hard to place much of the blame for that on Moss, though, since he's been one of the most talented of the Redskins' offensive weapons for several years now. It also helped that the Skins had some stability at quarterback with Mark Brunell at the time, which was also the last time he played in a full season. He's basically been a backup since.

Without a consistent quarterback, offensive scheme, coaching, and overall talent, the Redskins have not had a competent offense for years, and Moss's numbers took a dive after that first season. Here they are since:

2006-2007: 14 games, 55 catches, 790 yards, 6 TD
2007-2008: 14 games, 61 catches, 808 yards, 3 TD
2008-2009: 16 games, 79 catches, 1,044 yards, 6 TD
2009-2010: 16 games, 70 catches, 902 yards, 3 TD
2010-2011: 16 games, 93 catches, 1,115 yards, 6 TD

Those aren't amazing numbers, but they're pretty solid considering how abysmal the Redskins looked on offense during most of those seasons. I also have no doubt that Moss, on a more explosive offense with other talented receivers, could have performed much better and been talked about as one of the most productive receivers in the league. Still, Moss has performed admirably in Washington and is arguably the team's most consistent offensive threat, especially now that Chris Cooley seems to have taken a step back because of his knee injury. It's also worth noting that Moss, viewed as sort of an injury-prone guy at the time, has only missed four games in his Redskins career.

Similar to Clinton Portis, though not nearly as outspoken or controversial, Moss will occasionally do some questionable things. But he doesn't get in trouble off the field, which is rather important, right Brandon Banks?

Perhaps Moss has been more of a No. 2 receiver who has been tasked with the job of a No. 1 during his Redskins tenure. I don't think many would argue that, and I wouldn't either. It also would have been pretty exciting to watch the Redskins offense with Moss as the second option at receiver while a bigger, more talented receiver took some of the pressure off of him. But, thanks to bad drafting and plenty of failed acquisitions, that never happened. In the end, the Redskins have been stuck with Moss as their top wide receiver for a while now. But as Rod Gardner, Brandon Lloyd, David Patten, Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, and the plethora of awful moves the Redskins have made to try to shore up the wide receiver position have shown, there's no guarantee that another receiver will fit right in (especially when Cerrato is the guy calling the shots, or at least most of them). Moss is one of the few moves to actually pan out, and he's still going strong. Hopefully that continues.

Hardy's poor second half

J.J. Hardy has had a pretty good season for the Orioles. He's been one of the better hitters in the lineup, and he's hit a surprising 26 home runs. But he hasn't been nearly as good since the All Star break (I mentioned this on Twitter yesterday but thought it was worth posting here as well):

Pre-All Star break: .278/.338/.498
Post-All Star break: .250/.269/.466

That .269 on-base percentage is abysmal, and it's not like Hardy was getting on base at a fantastic rate in the first half of the season. Most of his value at the plate is tied to his power, and since he's not walking all that much, he needs to keep collecting those extra-base hits.

He currently has 510 plate appearances, which is the most for him since 2008 (629). So it's possible that he's wearing down. Still, is it smart to assume that he'll be able to continue hitting for that much power?

More on Wieters's power surge

Behind Jeremy Guthrie's strong start (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 10 K, 3 BB), the Orioles beat the Rays again last night, this time 6-2. The O's scored all of their runs via the long ball -- a line-drive solo shot by Nolan Reimold, a three-run bomb by Chris Davis, and a two-run blast by Matt Wieters.

The Wieters home run is particularly noteworthy for three reasons:

1) It was his third homer in three games, and it gives him 20 on the season. It also raises his slugging percentage to .449, which is top five among qualified catchers.

2) He hit the bomb off of Matt Moore, who many analysts and scouts consider to be the best pitching prospect in baseball.

3) It highlights just how well Wieters is hitting against left-handed pitching this season. Take a look:

vs. RH: 367 PA, .231/.283/.365
vs. LH: 133 PA, .348/.429/.696

So that's a little weird, especially since his career splits aren't that crazy.

Career vs. RH: 974 PA, .264/.325/.397
Career vs. LH: 410 PA, .267/.327/.453

Much of that jump in slugging percentage against left-handers is because of his performance this season, so it remains to be seen whether it's legitimate or sort of fluky. I'd probably lean towards fluky, especially since Wieters has a .400 BABIP against lefties and a .243 BABIP against righties this season.

Regardless, Wieters is on a roll lately, and it's never a bad thing to hit for more power.

Wieters hitting for more power

In a 4-2 Orioles win last night, Matt Wieters hit the go-ahead, two-run home run in the eighth inning. That blast gave him 19 homers for the season; his previous season-high was 11 last year.

Wieters is often criticized for not being an absolute force at the plate. As a tremendous defensive catcher, he's still quite valuable as an average to above-average hitter, but he hasn't developed into more than that. Wieters is only 25, so maybe it's just taking him a little longer to transform into the hitter many scouts thought he'd be.

Here's what he's accomplished in three seasons (made his debut in late May in 2009, and obviously the 2011 season isn't finished yet):

2009: 385 PA, .288/.340/.412
2010: 502 PA, .249/.319/.377
2011: 500 PA, .260/.322/.440

Not a huge increase from 2009 to 2011, but his numbers this season are way better than his 2010 stats. His power numbers have jumped, which is impressive, but he's still not getting on base as much as he should. That he's walking only 8 percent of the time (8.3 percent for his career) is rather shocking with the batting eye he possesses, but he also has a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone (33.4 percent) and is also swinging at more pitches in general (48.3 percent) than he did in his two previous seasons.

This post wasn't mean to be a breakdown of Wieters's 2011 season. Maybe that's something I'll work on after the season. But it's still worth noting that he's made a few improvements at the plate, though he still has to get better in other key areas (like, you know, getting on base more often). How's that for in-depth analysis?