Saturday, September 24, 2011

Revisiting the O's deadline trades

At the non-waiver trade deadline (July 31), the Orioles made two moves. They were:

1) Koji Uehara and $2 million to the Rangers for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter; and

2) Derrek Lee and cash to the Pirates for Aaron Baker.

And in a waiver deadline (August 31) deal, the O's shipped Mike Gonzalez to the Rangers for cash. They then used that cash to claim Pedro Strop off of waivers. Essentially, it was a swap of Gonzalez for Strop.

The O's have made a flurry of other roster moves, bringing several players up and sending others down -- including designating Felix Pie for assignment and then assigning him to Norfolk once he cleared waivers -- but for the most part, that's a pretty common thing for most MLB clubs in September. So let's focus on the four players acquired in the three trades mentioned above.

Chris Davis

Davis has not collected a whole lot of service time in his career, meaning that the O's won't have to worry about paying him a bunch of money anytime soon. And that's positive news, because he probably wouldn't be around otherwise. By acquiring Davis (25) and Hunter (25) in exchange for Uehara, the O's took a chance on bringing in a couple of older players rather than actual prospects. And both players, mainly because of how thin the O's roster is, should receive plenty of playing time next season.

Davis will probably see his name in the lineup in most games next season at a corner infield position or designated hitter. And unless the O's go out and sign someone, there aren't many better options on the roster. Davis has played in 26 games and has only 109 plate appearances, but in that time he hasn't performed well. He has a slash line of .260/.294/.385 with the O's, and he's been striking out more (33.9%) and walking less (4.6%) than usual -- which is pretty tough considering he has a career 31.9 K% and a 6.5 BB%. He also doesn't bring much defensive value to the table; he appears to be a below average third baseman and an average first baseman. But if Mark Reynolds sticks around next season, he'll likely play first, which will push Davis to third or DH.

Davis has also been dealing with a shoulder injury basically since he arrived in Baltimore, so it may be unfair to judge his play. That's fine, and it's very possible that he plays much better next season if he's healthy. But his issues aren't just with this season; he doesn't have great overall numbers. In 1,062 career plate appearances, Davis has hit .249/.299/.447 -- not good. The ability to hit for power is obviously Davis's strongest attribute, but he doesn't get on base nearly enough. Taking more pitches and walking more would aid Davis tremendously, but that's not an easily acquired skill.

Tommy Hunter

Like Davis, Hunter has his flaws. He has a career pitching line of 4.55/4.71/4.51 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) in 330.2 innings, which suggests that he's been a little unlucky in his 64.1 innings with the O's (5.32/4.53/4.22). Hunter is essentially an innings eater right now, and he may end up in that role next year if the O's young pitchers continue to falter.

Hunter has barely been walking any opposing batters (0.98 BB/9), and he hasn't struck out many either (4.62 K/9). By all accounts, he doesn't have fantastic stuff, and he really shouldn't be in the rotation next season if everyone's healthy. But with the O's, that rarely happens, meaning that it's good to have someone like Hunter around, even if he's not spectacular. Hunter may be best utilized out of the bullpen, where he could give the O's three or four innings at a time.

So, basically, the O's traded a fantastic reliever (Uehara) and received two 25-year-old players with limited upside. Don't get me wrong: Both players could end up being useful. But that's not exactly the best way to go about furthering along a rebuilding process.

Aaron Baker

Baker, 23, is not viewed as a top prospect, which is why the Pirates were willing to part with him. In 12 games at Single-A Frederick, Baker hit well, posting a .386/.472/.591 line. But in 15 games at Double-A Bowie, he struggled and hit only .196/.188/.239. The O's were not going to receive much value for Lee, and Baker may never make it to Baltimore, though there's still time for him to do so. Regardless, the deal was reasonable because it got Lee off the roster and allowed Reynolds to move to first.

Pedro Strop

The most effective player the O's received, surprisingly, has been Strop (26). He's only pitched in 8.2 innings, but he's yet to give up a run and has already earned eighth-inning responsibilities. Whether or not that continues next season is another question entirely, but for now Strop is dealing. In those 8.2 innings, Strop has 11 strikeouts and two walks. FanGraphs' PitchFx data has Strop's fastball sitting at 94 mph (about his career average), and it also shows that Strop has been throwing more sliders (40.6% now, 27.2% career). Maybe that's a recipe for continued success, or maybe not.

Strop has only thrown 36 innings in the majors, so it's hard to take much of anything away from such limited experience. But the O's acquired him for someone that they didn't want on the roster and who wouldn't be on the team next year anyway (Gonzalez), meaning that it appears the O's did something right.

Strop won't keep pitching this well, and who knows what his true talent level actually is. But similar moves are the ones the O's should be making. The least-publicized move may end up being the best one. It's funny how things work sometimes.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Praising Santana Moss

Remember Laveranues Coles? When the Redskins signed him in 2003, they believed they had found their big-play wide receiver. Of course they believed that, because not only did they sign him to a seven-year, $35 million deal with $13 million guaranteed, but they also forfeited their first-round pick to the Jets since Coles was a restricted free agent. That selection ended up being the 13th overall pick.

The linked article also highlights two other interesting things from that offseason: 1) That was the offseason when the Redskins decided it would be a good idea to sign several Jets players, including Chad Morton, Randy Thomas, and John Hall; and 2) (it's probably better if I just quote this from the article):
Coles would fill Washington's need for a speedy, big-play receiver to play opposite Rod Gardner. They had originally planned to draft such a player -- such as University of Miami's Andre Johnson -- by trading picks to move up on draft day, but Coles would give them a proven talent at roughly the same price without risking a training camp holdout.
I'm against the Redskins trading draft picks; most Redskins fans are. But at the time, they were still wheeling and dealing with reckless abandon, as evidenced by the Coles trade. Still, it would have been pretty awesome for the Skins to end up with Andre Johnson, though it would have taken a lot to move up to select him since he was taken third overall by the Texans. Also, here are some players who were taken in the first and second rounds who would have been available at No. 13 had the Redskins not traded for Coles: Ty Warren, Troy Polamalu, Calvin Pace, Willis McGahee, Dallas Clark, Larry Johnson, Nick Barnett, Nnamdi Asomugha, Charles Tillman, Rashean Mathis, Anquan Boldin, and Osi Umenyiora. There were others, but you get the point. Oh, and with their first pick in the draft (at No. 44 in the second round), the Skins selected Taylor Jacobs out of Florida. Did I mention that the Steve Spurrier era was a disaster?

But back to Coles. Under Spurrier, Coles had a solid 2003-2004 season in his first year in Washington. He caught 82 passes for 1,204 yards and six touchdowns. But after that season, Spurrier resigned, and Daniel Snyder hired Joe Gibbs. Under Gibbs, a believer in establishing the run and continuing to pound the ball, Coles was not as productive. He had more catches (90) the next season, but only for 950 yards and a single touchdown. Predictably, Coles was unhappy:
[Coles:] "He [Gibbs] wasn't flexible. We didn't see eye to eye. I just felt like it [the offense] wasn't for me. He knew that. I knew that. So we felt that it was best that we both go our separate ways."
Coles and Gibbs held a couple of meetings to settle their issues, and Gibbs apparently even agreed to alter the play-calling to include more downfield passing instead of being so conservative. But for whatever reason, the two sides could not agree on anything concrete and Coles was traded back to the Jets in exchange for Santana Moss.

Even though the Redskins had to absorb a significant cap hit to get rid of Coles, they were happy to replace him with Moss. At the time, Moss was viewed as a talented playmaker:
In Moss, the Redskins obtain an explosive wide receiver with blazing speed who is also a dynamic punt returner.

"We're excited to have Santana Moss," Vice President Vinny Cerrato said yesterday in brief comments because the trade wasn't official. "He's been a touchdown-maker, and he has great speed."
Redskins fans eventually learned that anything Cerrato said should be taken with a grain of salt, but in this case he was right. Many were skeptical of the move because of Moss's hamstring issues, but looking back, he still played in at least 15 games in three of the four seasons with the Jets. The only season that he didn't -- in 2001, his rookie season -- was because of torn cartilage in his left knee, an injury he suffered in training camp.

Surprisingly, Moss didn't bring all of his return skills to the Redskins special teams unit -- not because he wouldn't have done well in that role, but because the Redskins had others to handle return duties and also because Moss flourished with a new offense. In fact, he's only returned 24 punts with the Redskins, though that does include his 80-yard return in 2008 against Detroit.

In the 2005-2006 season, Moss caught 84 passes for 1,483 yards and nine touchdowns. No one expected that kind of season, and it's not surprising that Moss hasn't put up those kinds of numbers again. It's hard to place much of the blame for that on Moss, though, since he's been one of the most talented of the Redskins' offensive weapons for several years now. It also helped that the Skins had some stability at quarterback with Mark Brunell at the time, which was also the last time he played in a full season. He's basically been a backup since.

Without a consistent quarterback, offensive scheme, coaching, and overall talent, the Redskins have not had a competent offense for years, and Moss's numbers took a dive after that first season. Here they are since:

2006-2007: 14 games, 55 catches, 790 yards, 6 TD
2007-2008: 14 games, 61 catches, 808 yards, 3 TD
2008-2009: 16 games, 79 catches, 1,044 yards, 6 TD
2009-2010: 16 games, 70 catches, 902 yards, 3 TD
2010-2011: 16 games, 93 catches, 1,115 yards, 6 TD

Those aren't amazing numbers, but they're pretty solid considering how abysmal the Redskins looked on offense during most of those seasons. I also have no doubt that Moss, on a more explosive offense with other talented receivers, could have performed much better and been talked about as one of the most productive receivers in the league. Still, Moss has performed admirably in Washington and is arguably the team's most consistent offensive threat, especially now that Chris Cooley seems to have taken a step back because of his knee injury. It's also worth noting that Moss, viewed as sort of an injury-prone guy at the time, has only missed four games in his Redskins career.

Similar to Clinton Portis, though not nearly as outspoken or controversial, Moss will occasionally do some questionable things. But he doesn't get in trouble off the field, which is rather important, right Brandon Banks?

Perhaps Moss has been more of a No. 2 receiver who has been tasked with the job of a No. 1 during his Redskins tenure. I don't think many would argue that, and I wouldn't either. It also would have been pretty exciting to watch the Redskins offense with Moss as the second option at receiver while a bigger, more talented receiver took some of the pressure off of him. But, thanks to bad drafting and plenty of failed acquisitions, that never happened. In the end, the Redskins have been stuck with Moss as their top wide receiver for a while now. But as Rod Gardner, Brandon Lloyd, David Patten, Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, and the plethora of awful moves the Redskins have made to try to shore up the wide receiver position have shown, there's no guarantee that another receiver will fit right in (especially when Cerrato is the guy calling the shots, or at least most of them). Moss is one of the few moves to actually pan out, and he's still going strong. Hopefully that continues.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Hardy's poor second half

J.J. Hardy has had a pretty good season for the Orioles. He's been one of the better hitters in the lineup, and he's hit a surprising 26 home runs. But he hasn't been nearly as good since the All Star break (I mentioned this on Twitter yesterday but thought it was worth posting here as well):

Pre-All Star break: .278/.338/.498
Post-All Star break: .250/.269/.466

That .269 on-base percentage is abysmal, and it's not like Hardy was getting on base at a fantastic rate in the first half of the season. Most of his value at the plate is tied to his power, and since he's not walking all that much, he needs to keep collecting those extra-base hits.

He currently has 510 plate appearances, which is the most for him since 2008 (629). So it's possible that he's wearing down. Still, is it smart to assume that he'll be able to continue hitting for that much power?

Thursday, September 15, 2011

More on Wieters's power surge

Behind Jeremy Guthrie's strong start (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 10 K, 3 BB), the Orioles beat the Rays again last night, this time 6-2. The O's scored all of their runs via the long ball -- a line-drive solo shot by Nolan Reimold, a three-run bomb by Chris Davis, and a two-run blast by Matt Wieters.

The Wieters home run is particularly noteworthy for three reasons:

1) It was his third homer in three games, and it gives him 20 on the season. It also raises his slugging percentage to .449, which is top five among qualified catchers.

2) He hit the bomb off of Matt Moore, who many analysts and scouts consider to be the best pitching prospect in baseball.

3) It highlights just how well Wieters is hitting against left-handed pitching this season. Take a look:

vs. RH: 367 PA, .231/.283/.365
vs. LH: 133 PA, .348/.429/.696

So that's a little weird, especially since his career splits aren't that crazy.

Career vs. RH: 974 PA, .264/.325/.397
Career vs. LH: 410 PA, .267/.327/.453

Much of that jump in slugging percentage against left-handers is because of his performance this season, so it remains to be seen whether it's legitimate or sort of fluky. I'd probably lean towards fluky, especially since Wieters has a .400 BABIP against lefties and a .243 BABIP against righties this season.

Regardless, Wieters is on a roll lately, and it's never a bad thing to hit for more power.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Wieters hitting for more power

In a 4-2 Orioles win last night, Matt Wieters hit the go-ahead, two-run home run in the eighth inning. That blast gave him 19 homers for the season; his previous season-high was 11 last year.

Wieters is often criticized for not being an absolute force at the plate. As a tremendous defensive catcher, he's still quite valuable as an average to above-average hitter, but he hasn't developed into more than that. Wieters is only 25, so maybe it's just taking him a little longer to transform into the hitter many scouts thought he'd be.

Here's what he's accomplished in three seasons (made his debut in late May in 2009, and obviously the 2011 season isn't finished yet):

2009: 385 PA, .288/.340/.412
2010: 502 PA, .249/.319/.377
2011: 500 PA, .260/.322/.440

Not a huge increase from 2009 to 2011, but his numbers this season are way better than his 2010 stats. His power numbers have jumped, which is impressive, but he's still not getting on base as much as he should. That he's walking only 8 percent of the time (8.3 percent for his career) is rather shocking with the batting eye he possesses, but he also has a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone (33.4 percent) and is also swinging at more pitches in general (48.3 percent) than he did in his two previous seasons.

This post wasn't mean to be a breakdown of Wieters's 2011 season. Maybe that's something I'll work on after the season. But it's still worth noting that he's made a few improvements at the plate, though he still has to get better in other key areas (like, you know, getting on base more often). How's that for in-depth analysis?

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Not overreacting to Grossman's solid game

In Week 1 against a wounded Giants defense, Rex Grossman completed 21 of 34 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns. And he did so even though a couple of receivers dropped catchable passes and while under heavy pressure at times (he was sacked four times). Even the most optimistic Grossman supporters likely didn't think he'd play as well as he did.

Still, Grossman did have one unfortunate play: a crucial fumble early in the fourth quarter that led to a field goal attempt by the Giants. Fortunately, Brian Orakpo blocked the kick, and Grossman (aided by an Antrel Rolle unsportsmanlike conduct penalty) marched the offense down the field and put the game away with a four-yard touchdown pass to Jabar Gaffney.

Grossman looked more than competent in the Redskins' first game, and he seemed more than comfortable in a familiar offense. But he was hardly the only unheralded quarterback to have a solid Week 1. Sure, top quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees had fantastic games, but that's expected. Grossman's strong start wasn't, and neither were great performances by:

Ryan Fitzpatrick: 17-25, 208 yards, 4 TD vs. Kansas City
Cam Newton: 24-37, 422 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs. Arizona
Chad Henne: 30-49, 416 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs. New England

The surprising thing about Fitzpatrick's game is the four touchdowns, but at least he had a decent 2010 season (meaning he'd put up OK numbers before). Henne did not; he threw more interceptions (19) than touchdown passes (15) last season. And Newton wasn't expected to put up those kinds of numbers in his NFL debut, regardless of which defense he was facing.

None of these quarterbacks will play this well all season. That's not exactly a strong statement to make, especially since only one game has been played. But that also doesn't mean that Grossman, or the other three quarterbacks, can't exceed expectations and have better seasons than others predicted. Maybe Fitzpatrick and Henne have improved. Maybe Newton is better than the experts thought. And maybe Grossman really is better in an offense he's been studying and practicing in for a few years now. Or maybe none of these things continues.

But here's what we know: The Redskins offense, led by Grossman, looked pretty good on Sunday. Grossman found open receivers all game long, many of them down the field. If the Redskins get more consistent offensive line play and receivers keep getting open, there's no reason to think that Grossman won't keep finding them. And there's also no reason to believe that he will all of a sudden stop turning the ball over at inopportune times. He can still be effective, just probably not that effective. He is, after all, Rex Grossman, and he'll need a few more games like Sunday's before fans stop saying that.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Jeremy Affeldt cuts hand while separating burgers

This doesn't have to do with the Orioles or D.C. sports, but it does have to do with burgers. And if you know me, you probably know that I like burgers. So does Giants reliever Jeremy Affeldt, who recently wanted to enjoy some burger goodness. Unfortunately, that's not what happened:
San Francisco Giants left-hander reliever Jeremy Affeldt is done for the season after sustaining a deep cut in his right hand while using a knife to separate frozen burger patties during the off-day Thursday.

He needed surgery and suffered nerve damage in his pinkie.
Isn't this why Wendy's slogan is "Always Fresh, Never Frozen"?

Giants are dealing with a ton of injuries

The Redskins open the 2011-2012 season against the Giants, and for the most part, they're a pretty healthy group. Only one player, LaRon Landry, has been ruled out for Sunday's game as of this moment. Even though Landry is an important piece of the Skins defense, that's not too bad.

Besides Landry, five other players are dealing with injuries and are listed as questionable. They are: Chris Cooley, Oshiomogho Atogwe, Ryan Torain, Brandon Banks, and Donte Stallworth. Maybe one or two of those guys sit out, but most should be ready to play. Unlike the Redskins, though, the Giants have plenty of injury concerns to worry about. First off, here's a list of players the Giants have already lost for the season:

LB Jonathan Goff
CB Terrell Thomas
CB Bruce Johnson
DT Marvin Austin
LB Clint Sintim

Also, the Giants will be starting the season without Osi Umenyiora and Prince Amukamara, and Justin Tuck, arguably the team's best defensive player, is questionable with a neck injury.

If you're paying attention, all of the Giants' injuries have been on the defensive side of the ball. That should give the Redskins some help on offense, meaning they should move the ball and put some points on the board. Still, the Skins defense will have its hands full, as the Giants have plenty of healthy and explosive weapons on offense.

But don't get me wrong: The Redskins shouldn't overlook any team, especially a team like the Giants that is talented and has given the Skins fits over the last few seasons. The Redskins offensive line still has to block, receivers and running backs still need to find open space, and Rex Grossman needs to have a solid game. But there will be chances for the offense to exploit the Giants defense, and if the Skins are going to open the season with a win, they'll need to take advantage of the Giants' injuries.

In the NFL, injuries occur frequently, and no one feels sorry for a team dealing with an abnormal amount of injuries, even at the beginning of a season. Hopefully the Redskins seize the opportunity they've been presented with.