Like the Redskins, the Panthers have mostly played close games. At 1-6, their only win of the season came in a 35-27 victory over the Saints, and they've been blown out just one time: in a Thursday night game in Week 3 against the Giants, when they lost by 29 points. The Redskins (3-5) just suffered their worst loss of the season, falling 27-12 to the Steelers. Besides that, though, they've been in every single game. So it's no surprise that the Redskins, at home, are favored by just three points.
Washington has the superior offense. They score more points per game (26.6 to 18.3) and gain more yards per game (387.4 to 347). The Panthers average slightly more passing yards per game (232.6 to 221.1), but they also throw the ball more often -- Cam Newton has just nine fewer pass attempts despite playing in one fewer game (bye week). And the Redskins, who are second to the 49ers in the league in rushing yards per game by just 0.3 yards, average 166.3 yards on the ground to the Panthers' 114.4.
Still, the Redskins' defense is one of the worst in the league, while the Panthers' unit is slightly better. The Redskins have allowed 28.4 points per game (28th) and are ranked last in pass defense; the Panthers have given up 23.9 points per game (21st) and are 15th in pass defense.
It's hard to examine this game without looking at the quarterbacks. And Robert Griffin III has also outplayed Cam Newton up to this point. Griffin has completed nearly 10 percent more of his passes (66.8 to 57.1) while throwing for slightly more yards (1,778 to 1,701). Griffin's quarterback rating of 97.3 is also seventh in the NFL; Newton's rating of 75.2 is 28th. But while Newton has accounted for eight total touchdowns (5 passing, 3 rushing), Griffin has 14 touchdowns (8 passing, 6 rushing), has rushed for 166 more yards, and has turned the ball over just five times (3 interceptions, 2 fumbles). Newton, meanwhile, already has eight interceptions and has lost four fumbles.
The Redskins didn't do a good job of it last week, but they need to shut down the Panthers' running game and force Newton into some tough throws. The front seven has not provided much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but if they do so with Newton, he's demonstrated that he'll turn the ball over. Unless Redskins' receivers drop 10 more passes (or however many the official number was), they should be able to put up at least 20 points on a better, but still middle-of-the-road, Carolina defense.
Unfortunately for the Redskins, their horrid pass defense keeps opposing teams in every game. But fortunately, they also have Griffin, who gives the Redskins a chance to score every time he takes the field. It's not an ideal situation, but it could certainly be much worse.
Showing posts with label Cam Newton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cam Newton. Show all posts
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Not overreacting to Grossman's solid game
In Week 1 against a wounded Giants defense, Rex Grossman completed 21 of 34 passes for 305 yards and two touchdowns. And he did so even though a couple of receivers dropped catchable passes and while under heavy pressure at times (he was sacked four times). Even the most optimistic Grossman supporters likely didn't think he'd play as well as he did.
Still, Grossman did have one unfortunate play: a crucial fumble early in the fourth quarter that led to a field goal attempt by the Giants. Fortunately, Brian Orakpo blocked the kick, and Grossman (aided by an Antrel Rolle unsportsmanlike conduct penalty) marched the offense down the field and put the game away with a four-yard touchdown pass to Jabar Gaffney.
Grossman looked more than competent in the Redskins' first game, and he seemed more than comfortable in a familiar offense. But he was hardly the only unheralded quarterback to have a solid Week 1. Sure, top quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees had fantastic games, but that's expected. Grossman's strong start wasn't, and neither were great performances by:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 17-25, 208 yards, 4 TD vs. Kansas City
Cam Newton: 24-37, 422 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs. Arizona
Chad Henne: 30-49, 416 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs. New England
The surprising thing about Fitzpatrick's game is the four touchdowns, but at least he had a decent 2010 season (meaning he'd put up OK numbers before). Henne did not; he threw more interceptions (19) than touchdown passes (15) last season. And Newton wasn't expected to put up those kinds of numbers in his NFL debut, regardless of which defense he was facing.
None of these quarterbacks will play this well all season. That's not exactly a strong statement to make, especially since only one game has been played. But that also doesn't mean that Grossman, or the other three quarterbacks, can't exceed expectations and have better seasons than others predicted. Maybe Fitzpatrick and Henne have improved. Maybe Newton is better than the experts thought. And maybe Grossman really is better in an offense he's been studying and practicing in for a few years now. Or maybe none of these things continues.
But here's what we know: The Redskins offense, led by Grossman, looked pretty good on Sunday. Grossman found open receivers all game long, many of them down the field. If the Redskins get more consistent offensive line play and receivers keep getting open, there's no reason to think that Grossman won't keep finding them. And there's also no reason to believe that he will all of a sudden stop turning the ball over at inopportune times. He can still be effective, just probably not that effective. He is, after all, Rex Grossman, and he'll need a few more games like Sunday's before fans stop saying that.
Still, Grossman did have one unfortunate play: a crucial fumble early in the fourth quarter that led to a field goal attempt by the Giants. Fortunately, Brian Orakpo blocked the kick, and Grossman (aided by an Antrel Rolle unsportsmanlike conduct penalty) marched the offense down the field and put the game away with a four-yard touchdown pass to Jabar Gaffney.
Grossman looked more than competent in the Redskins' first game, and he seemed more than comfortable in a familiar offense. But he was hardly the only unheralded quarterback to have a solid Week 1. Sure, top quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees had fantastic games, but that's expected. Grossman's strong start wasn't, and neither were great performances by:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 17-25, 208 yards, 4 TD vs. Kansas City
Cam Newton: 24-37, 422 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs. Arizona
Chad Henne: 30-49, 416 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT vs. New England
The surprising thing about Fitzpatrick's game is the four touchdowns, but at least he had a decent 2010 season (meaning he'd put up OK numbers before). Henne did not; he threw more interceptions (19) than touchdown passes (15) last season. And Newton wasn't expected to put up those kinds of numbers in his NFL debut, regardless of which defense he was facing.
None of these quarterbacks will play this well all season. That's not exactly a strong statement to make, especially since only one game has been played. But that also doesn't mean that Grossman, or the other three quarterbacks, can't exceed expectations and have better seasons than others predicted. Maybe Fitzpatrick and Henne have improved. Maybe Newton is better than the experts thought. And maybe Grossman really is better in an offense he's been studying and practicing in for a few years now. Or maybe none of these things continues.
But here's what we know: The Redskins offense, led by Grossman, looked pretty good on Sunday. Grossman found open receivers all game long, many of them down the field. If the Redskins get more consistent offensive line play and receivers keep getting open, there's no reason to think that Grossman won't keep finding them. And there's also no reason to believe that he will all of a sudden stop turning the ball over at inopportune times. He can still be effective, just probably not that effective. He is, after all, Rex Grossman, and he'll need a few more games like Sunday's before fans stop saying that.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
A plea to Shanahan and Allen
Now that the Redskins season has been over for a few weeks, much talk has centered around what the Skins will decide to do with their first-round pick (No. 10 overall). Obviously there are plenty of mock drafts to dissect, and some of them have the Redskins selecting Auburn quarterback Cam Newton at No. 10.
The first round of the NFL Draft is not until April 28, so scouting reports and mock drafts are going to drastically change in a few months. But the current Redskins team is old and has plenty of holes, and this draft is hugely important going forward in terms of shaping Mike Shanahan's and Bruce Allen's legacy in D.C.
Picking a franchise quarterback would be fantastic. The Redskins have not had a young, talented quarterback for a very long time, and there's no question that Shanahan will desperately be looking for a quarterback to mold and develop to his liking. But having a talented quarterback does not guarantee success. Not many people would argue that quarterback is the most important position on the field, or that having a solid quarterback is immensely important. But if the Redskins neglect the rest of the team's holes to draft a quarterback, they may not only risk taking a step back in the standings next season, but also hindering that quarterback's development (again, assuming that they don't surround him with the right pieces -- the Skins don't exactly have a ton of draft picks right now (6)).
Still, having a top quarterback does (usually) make things easier. Of all the quarterbacks who finished in the top 10 in terms of quarterback rating this season, seven made the playoffs. However, the No. 2 name on that list, Philip Rivers, threw for more yards than anyone else (4,710) and had the fifth-most touchdown passes (30), and his team still fell short of the playoffs despite having one of the best points differentials in the league.
Sure, that's just one example -- and a recent one at that. I'm also not going to go back over every draft and focus on which quarterbacks taken early were and were not busts. But unless the Redskins get lucky and select a truly elite quarterback like a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning -- not likely at all -- then it's important to keep building up the rest of the team and to not keep neglecting key areas like the offensive and defensive lines. If a team is well rounded and can compete with a mediocre quarterback, then there isn't much of a reason to draft a quarterback so early unless Shanahan and Allen -- whoever gets the final decision (Shanahan, probably) -- are completely convinced that guy is going to be a star.
Just take a look at the Jets and Bears. Are both of those teams a little lucky? Sure. The Jets sort of limped into the postseason before catching fire and taking down the Colts (a game they easily could have lost) and the Patriots (who the Jets outplayed). And the second-seeded Bears ended up facing a flawed Seahawks team in Chicago while the top-seeded Falcons were blown out at home by a determined Packers team. Would the Bears have faired as well hosting the Packers instead? We're about to find out this week. But that's beside the point. Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger are elite quarterbacks, so it's not surprising to see their teams still alive at this point. But Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez? They may be good quarterbacks, but neither would be considered great. This season, Cutler ranked 16th in quarterback rating (86.3) but did have 23 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. He was good -- but not great. Sanchez was even worse this season, finishing with the fifth-worst quarterback rating (75.3) while throwing 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. But both of those teams have been able to overcome their lack of a truly elite quarterback because they're able to do things like force turnovers, get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and run the ball a little themselves on offense.
Of course, it's all about being able to build a franchise. The Redskins are not ready to compete for a championship; they need to add more pieces before that can happen. So all I'm trying to say is that the Redskins shouldn't reach for a quarterback so early in the draft if they're not sure he's the guy. Again, there's no guarantee the quarterback they select is going to be great, but there seems to be a little less pressure and difficulty in picking another position of need -- and the Redskins obviously have plenty of those.
I'm a fan of taking the best available player, and I think the Redskins should do that -- even if it's a quarterback. But they should also be exploring the possibility of taking any other position -- offense or defense -- or even trading back to replenish some of the picks they gave away when trading for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown.
In the end, if the Redskins do decide that Newton is the guy, that's fine. But he's not going to be the team's savior with so many other gaping holes on the roster, and it would be wrong of them to believe that. Shanahan and Allen have a ton of work to do, and hopefully they are not solely focused on finding a quarterback. This team needs much more help than that.
The first round of the NFL Draft is not until April 28, so scouting reports and mock drafts are going to drastically change in a few months. But the current Redskins team is old and has plenty of holes, and this draft is hugely important going forward in terms of shaping Mike Shanahan's and Bruce Allen's legacy in D.C.
Picking a franchise quarterback would be fantastic. The Redskins have not had a young, talented quarterback for a very long time, and there's no question that Shanahan will desperately be looking for a quarterback to mold and develop to his liking. But having a talented quarterback does not guarantee success. Not many people would argue that quarterback is the most important position on the field, or that having a solid quarterback is immensely important. But if the Redskins neglect the rest of the team's holes to draft a quarterback, they may not only risk taking a step back in the standings next season, but also hindering that quarterback's development (again, assuming that they don't surround him with the right pieces -- the Skins don't exactly have a ton of draft picks right now (6)).
Still, having a top quarterback does (usually) make things easier. Of all the quarterbacks who finished in the top 10 in terms of quarterback rating this season, seven made the playoffs. However, the No. 2 name on that list, Philip Rivers, threw for more yards than anyone else (4,710) and had the fifth-most touchdown passes (30), and his team still fell short of the playoffs despite having one of the best points differentials in the league.
Sure, that's just one example -- and a recent one at that. I'm also not going to go back over every draft and focus on which quarterbacks taken early were and were not busts. But unless the Redskins get lucky and select a truly elite quarterback like a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning -- not likely at all -- then it's important to keep building up the rest of the team and to not keep neglecting key areas like the offensive and defensive lines. If a team is well rounded and can compete with a mediocre quarterback, then there isn't much of a reason to draft a quarterback so early unless Shanahan and Allen -- whoever gets the final decision (Shanahan, probably) -- are completely convinced that guy is going to be a star.
Just take a look at the Jets and Bears. Are both of those teams a little lucky? Sure. The Jets sort of limped into the postseason before catching fire and taking down the Colts (a game they easily could have lost) and the Patriots (who the Jets outplayed). And the second-seeded Bears ended up facing a flawed Seahawks team in Chicago while the top-seeded Falcons were blown out at home by a determined Packers team. Would the Bears have faired as well hosting the Packers instead? We're about to find out this week. But that's beside the point. Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger are elite quarterbacks, so it's not surprising to see their teams still alive at this point. But Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez? They may be good quarterbacks, but neither would be considered great. This season, Cutler ranked 16th in quarterback rating (86.3) but did have 23 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. He was good -- but not great. Sanchez was even worse this season, finishing with the fifth-worst quarterback rating (75.3) while throwing 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. But both of those teams have been able to overcome their lack of a truly elite quarterback because they're able to do things like force turnovers, get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and run the ball a little themselves on offense.
Of course, it's all about being able to build a franchise. The Redskins are not ready to compete for a championship; they need to add more pieces before that can happen. So all I'm trying to say is that the Redskins shouldn't reach for a quarterback so early in the draft if they're not sure he's the guy. Again, there's no guarantee the quarterback they select is going to be great, but there seems to be a little less pressure and difficulty in picking another position of need -- and the Redskins obviously have plenty of those.
I'm a fan of taking the best available player, and I think the Redskins should do that -- even if it's a quarterback. But they should also be exploring the possibility of taking any other position -- offense or defense -- or even trading back to replenish some of the picks they gave away when trading for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown.
In the end, if the Redskins do decide that Newton is the guy, that's fine. But he's not going to be the team's savior with so many other gaping holes on the roster, and it would be wrong of them to believe that. Shanahan and Allen have a ton of work to do, and hopefully they are not solely focused on finding a quarterback. This team needs much more help than that.
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