Brad Bergesen allowed just one run in a complete game, 3-1 win over the Blue Jays last night to wrap up a three-game sweep. He struck out three, walked none, and gave up only seven hits, and it took him only 95 pitches (68 of which were strikes). The complete game was Bergesen's second in a little more than a month, the other coming against the Indians on August 11.
The O's offense manufactured three runs on 10 hits (nine singles) and three walks. Oddly enough, every O's starter except for Adam Jones had a hit -- Brian Roberts and Ty Wigginton had two -- but the only runs came on a Luke Scott ground out in the first, a Corey Patterson single in the fourth, and a run scoring on a Roberts double play ball in the fourth. Still, despite the lack of extra-base hits and much run support, those three runs were more than enough for Bergesen, who simply kept pounding the strike zone against a strong lineup.
After the sweep, the O's record stands at 58-88, while the Blue Jays have dropped to .500 (73-73). Interestingly enough, the O's first hit the 30-games-under-.500 mark on June 14, and after a four-game sweep of the Rangers on July 8-11, haven't been only 30 games below until now. Considering the O's were 41 games below .500 on August 1, after which Buck Showalter took over, that's a rather impressive feat for a last-place team -- especially since the O's have been playing some pretty good teams lately.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
O's win again
Jake Arrieta pitched six scoreless innings, and the O's offense finally broke through for a bunch of runs in an 11-3 win over the Blue Jays. Leading 3-0, the O's tacked on six runs in the seventh and two more in the eighth to put the game away for good. Overall, the O's pounded out 16 hits, including three doubles and two homers, and five walks. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones had the home runs, and Robert Andino, Markakis, Ty Wigginton, Felix Pie, Matt Wieters, and Jones all had multi-hit games. Also, every Orioles starter recorded a hit.
Arrieta was more than solid enough to earn the win, allowing just four hits. He also walked only one batter while striking out five. He hasn't walked more than one batter in a start since August 26, which spans only three starts, but that's still some progress considering he has 52 strikeouts and 48 walks on the season.
The O's are now 8-5 in September and 25-15 overall under Buck Showalter. They're also 8-2 in their last 10 games and could have won all 10 if not for the bullpen blowing two leads late in games. And for whatever the reason, the O's have won a lot more and been much more enjoyable to watch under Showalter. Hopefully that doesn't end and provides a nice lead-in for next season.
A few other notes:
- Since the All-Star break, Wieters is hitting .286/.357/.474 with five home runs. He's also walked 17 times and struck out only 21 times.
- Also, since the All-Star break, Jones is hitting .301/.376/.446 with four home runs. In those 45 games, he's also three walked more times (13) than he did in 87 games before the break (10).
- Here is the O's pitching staff ERA by month:
March/April: 4.62
May: 4.68
June: 5.72
July: 5.60
August: 3.38
September (so far): 4.07
Have they gotten a little lucky? Probably. But starters are throwing more innings and giving the bullpen leads to protect -- and fewer innings to throw.
- Brian Matusz, who had to leave the game on Monday after just one inning because of a line drive that struck his left triceps, may have been robbed of a chance to improve his Rookie of the Year chances. Matusz has more than held his own in his rookie season and has thrown a lot of innings, but there's a strong chance that the O's will hold Matusz out of his next start if he's not 100 percent healthy -- as they should. Unfortunately for Matusz, Austin Jackson continues to hit and still seems like the top ROY choice in the American League.
Arrieta was more than solid enough to earn the win, allowing just four hits. He also walked only one batter while striking out five. He hasn't walked more than one batter in a start since August 26, which spans only three starts, but that's still some progress considering he has 52 strikeouts and 48 walks on the season.
The O's are now 8-5 in September and 25-15 overall under Buck Showalter. They're also 8-2 in their last 10 games and could have won all 10 if not for the bullpen blowing two leads late in games. And for whatever the reason, the O's have won a lot more and been much more enjoyable to watch under Showalter. Hopefully that doesn't end and provides a nice lead-in for next season.
A few other notes:
- Since the All-Star break, Wieters is hitting .286/.357/.474 with five home runs. He's also walked 17 times and struck out only 21 times.
- Also, since the All-Star break, Jones is hitting .301/.376/.446 with four home runs. In those 45 games, he's also three walked more times (13) than he did in 87 games before the break (10).
- Here is the O's pitching staff ERA by month:
March/April: 4.62
May: 4.68
June: 5.72
July: 5.60
August: 3.38
September (so far): 4.07
Have they gotten a little lucky? Probably. But starters are throwing more innings and giving the bullpen leads to protect -- and fewer innings to throw.
- Brian Matusz, who had to leave the game on Monday after just one inning because of a line drive that struck his left triceps, may have been robbed of a chance to improve his Rookie of the Year chances. Matusz has more than held his own in his rookie season and has thrown a lot of innings, but there's a strong chance that the O's will hold Matusz out of his next start if he's not 100 percent healthy -- as they should. Unfortunately for Matusz, Austin Jackson continues to hit and still seems like the top ROY choice in the American League.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Week 1 picks: no double-digit favorites
Here are my picks for the first week of NFL games:
Vikings (+6) over SAINTS
Already picked this one here.
Panthers (+7) over GIANTS
The Panthers have Matt Moore as their starting quarterback now, and they go on the road the first week to play a healthy Giants team playing its first regular season home game in a new stadium. Uh oh. Still, Moore has some help: the always-explosive Steve Smith and the solid running back tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Giants defense, more than likely, will be looking to stuff the run to force Moore to make some throws. In seven games last season, Moore completed 85 of 138 passes for 1,053 yards (150.4 per game), eight touchdowns, and two interceptions -- good enough for a 98.5 QB rating. He was also sacked just nine times and didn't lose a fumble. Even if he didn't throw for a ton of yards or touchdowns, that's still an efficient job of taking care of the ball. So will the Panthers open up their passing attack under Moore, or will they be content to hand the ball off a ton to Williams and Stewart, even if the offensive line can't open up holes early in the game?
The Panthers defense will also have their hands full with Eli Manning and a receiving corps -- Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham -- with the potential to have an outstanding season. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs also form a solid backfield duo, assuming Jacobs stops sulking after losing his starting job to Bradshaw.
I think the Giants will put out the W, but the Panthers will keep it close. Unless, of course, Moore starts playing like Jake Delhomme.
Dolphins (-3) over BILLS
The Bills are really bad. They'll start C.J. Spiller at running back, and he's really exciting to watch, but even with his Chris Johnson-like moves and quickness, he's still a rookie. Besides, can he really make up for Trent Edwards being their starting quarterback? I doubt it. Also, the Bills team website lists Steve Johnson as the starting wide receiver opposite No. 1 option Lee Evans. Can other people who follow the NFL closely honestly admit that they know who he is? I'm not so sure.
The Dolphins may not be world-beaters, but they're more talented than the Bills. And after all, if they can't take down a flawed Bills team in Week 1, even if the game is on the road, the potential for a great season may just not be there.
STEELERS (+1.5) over Falcons
The Steelers are going to be without Ben Roethlisberger for four games -- Dennis Dixon will get the start in Week 1 -- meaning that they're going to have to get back to their roots. That will likely mean a steady dose of Rashard Mendenhall and solid, hard-hitting defense. Mendenhall seems to be up for the challenge, and if Troy Polamalu truly is back to being 100 percent, the Steelers may be ready to boast a formidable defense again.
The Falcons, meanwhile, will have their starting quarterback ready to go to start the season, but still face the question of whether or not Matt Ryan is ready to take the leap to the next level of quarterbacks. Ryan had a fantastic rookie season and exceeded all expectations, posting a 87.7 QB rating and leading the Falcons to the playoffs. They didn't get out of the first round, but Falcons fans were confident in the team's future with Ryan under center. Then, Ryan took a bit of a step back last season, posting a lower QB rating (80.9), throwing for fewer yards per game (from 215.0 to 208.3), and throwing more interceptions (from 11 to 14). He did throw six more touchdown passes (from 16 to 22), but he also completed a lower percentage of his passes (from 61.1 to 58.3). Some of that can be contributed to Michael Turner getting hurt and playing in only 11 games, but it's at least worth noting that Ryan took at least a small step back. With Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez as receiving threats and Turner healthy, the Falcons need Ryan to step up in his third season.
Anyway, back to this game: If anyone can win a grind-it-out, ugly game, especially at home, it's the Steelers. Not having Roethlisberger definitely hurts their offense, but they still should find a way to run on the Falcons defense. And if the Steelers defense is completely healthy, even a rejuvenated Falcons attack will have trouble putting points on the board.
BEARS (-6.5) over Lions
I like what the Lions are doing. Matthew Stafford seems to be a competent quarterback, and he's still just 22 years old. The offensive line is slightly improved, and they drafted running back Jahvid Best, who will likely see a ton of work this year because of the current shape of Kevin Smith's knee. The Lions also have one of the best wideouts in the league, Calvin Johnson, and a few other decent receiving options like Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Tony Scheffler. They were also smart and brought in Shaun Hill, an experienced backup quarterback. And on defense, the Lions more than upgraded their defensive line, bringing in Kyle Vanden Bosch from Tennessee and drafting the monstrous Ndamukong Suh with the second pick in the 2010 draft. But how long will it take for all of these young pieces to mesh together? Stafford has a lot of promise, but he still threw 20 picks in his rookie season (also 13 touchdowns) and missed six games because of injuries. Best and Suh are also both rookies, and it'll be tough to expect too much of them out of the gate, even though they're both extremely talented.
The Bears did a little offseason work of their own, with their two biggest additions probably being defensive end Julius Peppers and offensive coordinator Mike Martz. With Peppers, the Bears hope to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and force more turnovers. And with Martz now calling the plays, the Bears expect to put more points on the board and make things easier for Cutler, who had the lowest QB rating of his career (76.8) last season (his first in Chicago). Cutler threw for 229.1 yards per game and had 27 touchdown passes last season, but he also threw 26 interceptions and was sacked a whopping 35 times. That'll have to change.
I'll take the Bears in this game, especially since they're at home, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Lions kept it close or even won -- and finished something like 5-11 or 6-10 on the season, which would be a significant improvement after their 2-14 record last season and, of course, their 0-16 2008 season.
Bengals (+5) over PATRIOTS
A few questions for the Patriots: 1) Is the real Randy Moss going to show up this season despite not having a new contract? 2) How healthy is Wes Welker, and how long will it take for him to return to form? 3) How much will Bill Belichick be able to get out of his defense, especially an unproven secondary? Still, as long as Brady stays healthy, the Patriots should be in a battle with the Jets to win the AFC East.
As for the Bengals, many people are overlooking them in the AFC North (in favor of the Ravens and Steelers) even though they were 10-6 last season and won the division. Then again, maybe that's because they won several close games and outscored their opponents by only 14 points -- by far the lowest point differential among all division winners. The Bengals decided to upgrade their receiving corps both in the draft (receiver Jordan Shipley and tight end Jermaine Gresham) and in free agency (Terrell Owens). Even if Owens has lost a step, his presence on one side of the field, with Chad Ochocinco on the other side, should give Shipley, Gresham, and any other slot receivers plenty of chances over the middle of the field. If Carson Palmer can use all of his weapons effectively and start throwing the ball down the field again, it'll do wonders for Cedric Benson and the Bengals running game, which, along with their defense, carried the team last season.
The Bengals have a knack for keeping games close, and I'd like to see how Welker looks in a real game before believing the Patriots can easily throw the ball up and down the field, let alone against a strong Bengals defense.
Browns (+3) over BUCCANEERS
The Browns boast a small dose of sleeper potential: They finished last season on a four-game winning streak, including a stunning 13-6 win over the Steelers; they found out last season that Jerome Harrison, now the unquestioned lead back after the season-ending ACL injury to Montario Hardesty, is capable of handling a full workload; and they picked up a solid backup quarterback in Seneca Wallace. But there are at least two problems: 1) Jake Delhomme is now their starting quarterback, and 2) they still play in the ultra-competitive AFC North. Delhomme may play well for a week or two, but don't be surprised if he stinks up the place and gets replaced by Wallace at some point in the first few weeks of the season.
The Bucs, likewise, don't have much of a chance of winning their division. Quarterback Josh Freeman, now in his second season, has a lot of work to do to improve on his awful rookie campaign: 59.9 QB rating, 54.6 completion percentage, 10 TD, 18 INT. Rookie receiver Mike Williams has a lot of promise, and Cadillac Williams is easy to root for and should get the majority of the team's carries, but other than tight end Kellen Winslow, the Bucs don't have many offensive threats.
The Browns are better than the Bucs and should be able to run the ball. But who really knows with these two teams.
Broncos (+3) over JAGUARS
Did either one of these teams really improve that much in the offseason? The Broncos, who started out the season hot and then faded to an 8-8 finish, traded away Brandon Marshall and currently have Brandon Lloyd listed as their No. 2 wide receiver opposite Eddie Royal. Yes, that Brandon Lloyd. Knowshon Moreno is an impressive talent and should be able to play in this game, but his main problem has been able to stay healthy. Their defense will also miss linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who's out for the year.
The Jaguars may be a little better than they were last season when they finished 7-9 but were still outscored by 90 points. Maurice Jones-Drew, as long as he's healthy, is always a big-play threat, and the defense should be improved as well. To have a chance at making the playoffs, they're going to need David Garrard to play like he did in 2007 instead of how he's looked the last two seasons. Unfortunately, while he hasn't been bad the last two seasons, he hasn't been great either -- and that just might not be enough for this team.
As long as Jones-Drew doesn't have a huge day, the Broncos should be able to contain the Jaguars offense and at the very least keep this game close. Kyle Orton may also put together a decent performance if the Jaguars can't put much pressure on him.
Colts (-2) over TEXANS
I could write a lot more about this game, especially since a lot of people believe this will be the year the Texans overtake the Colts in the AFC South, but I'll just say this: The Texans are certainly getting better and building a formidable team. But they're going to have to knock off the Colts first, at least before I believe they're taking that next big step. And they won't get a much better opportunity than playing the Colts in Week 1 in front of an excited home crowd.
TITANS (-6) over Raiders
The Raiders defense will keep them in a lot of games, but will their offense be able to put points on the board? Who knows? Jason Campbell provides an upgrade at quarterback, but he's already banged up and has certainly taken plenty of hits from his last few seasons behind Redskins' offensive lines. Darren McFadden gets the start at running back with Michael Bush out, but he hasn't necessarily showed a whole lot in his first two seasons. He's also injury-prone and has missed several games himself. Sooner or later, Campbell may be handing the ball off to Rock Cartwright again -- not necessarily the best of backfield options.
As for the Titans, their game plan hasn't changed that much: 1) get Chris Johnson plenty of carries, 2) don't ask Vince Young to do too much or force the ball down the field very often, and 3) play solid defense.
The Raiders defense is going to have their hands full with Johnson, but they still have the ability to keep the game close. I'd just like to see how well that Raiders offense performs first.
Packers (-3) over EAGLES
Another great matchup in this opening week. The Packers look like a Super Bowl contender with a high-powered offense, while the Eagles have a lot of great pieces with one giant question mark: How good is Kevin Kolb? If Kolb turns out to be a star, the Eagles may very well win the NFC East. But if he's not, he's going to have his hands full -- not just with opposing defenses, but with impatient Philly fans who will be wondering why Donovan McNabb isn't still in an Eagles uniform. Unless the Eagles defense plays a perfect game, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to put up plenty of points, so Kolb should have his chances in this game and get tested from the beginning.
49ers (-3) over SEAHAWKS
Cardinals (-4) over RAMS
It's the NFC West, so sure, anything can happen. But a pretty good defense, a solid running game, and a few talented receiving options should be enough to put the 49ers on top of the rest of the division.
REDSKINS (+3.5) over Cowboys
With two offensive linemen out, the Cowboys are wounded heading into the season. Still, with Tony Romo under center and lots of talent at the skill positions, the Cowboys should still be able to score at least a couple of touchdowns against the Redskins new, (potentially) ball-hawking 3-4 defense. The Redskins weren't particularly good at stopping the run during the preseason, but the injured Dallas linemen may play a factor in how well Marion Barber and Felix Jones perform.
On offense for the Redskins, McNabb isn't 100 percent and the offensive line will be tested by the Cowboys stout front four, led by DeMarcus Ware. The Redskins have a lot of questions on offense, so who knows how well all of these new pieces will respond in a rivalry game on Sunday Night Football in the season's first week.
This may be an ugly game played by two teams who look completely different by the time they meet again in December. And that's not necessarily a good thing for either team.
Ravens (+2) over JETS
This game may be the best of Week 1, and for me, the outcome comes down to this: I'd rather roll the dice with Joe Flacco against the Jets defense than Mark Sanchez against the Ravens defense. Regardless, both teams are very good, and they may end up meeting again in the playoffs. Sure, it's Week 1, but with Rex Ryan facing his former team and plenty of other storylines, stay tuned.
CHIEFS (+5) over Chargers
This Chiefs team seems a little different than in previous years. Matt Cassel is still under center, which isn't really all that great, but he's got some talent around him: Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers, and rookie Dexter McCluster. McCluster is sick and will likely miss this game, but that's still an impressive collection of skill players. Their defense may not be all that improved, but the addition of rookie safety Eric Berry certainly helps.
While the Chiefs have improved their overall talent, the Chargers may have taken a step back. The selection of running back Ryan Mathews in the draft filled a huge need with the departure of LaDainian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates may still be the best tight end in the NFL. But with tackle Marcus McNeill holding out and wide receiver Vincent Jackson out for at least the first six games (with the possibility that he may never play in San Diego again), the Chargers will be missing two steadying forces on offense. Mathews's presence allows Darren Sproles to keep returning kicks and punts and be the third-down back, so that's one positive, at least. But without Jackson, either Malcom Floyd or Legedu Naanee needs to step up as a reliable target for Philip Rivers.
I'm a fan of what the Chargers do on offense, and as long as Rivers and Gates are both healthy and Norv Turner is in charge of calling the plays, scoring points shouldn't be a problem. But sometimes, even the best teams need more talent, and having two very good players on the sidelines will come back to hurt them.
I think the Chargers will win this game, but I expect the Chiefs to be fired up at home on Monday Night Football.
As always, enjoy the games.
Vikings (+6) over SAINTS
Already picked this one here.
Panthers (+7) over GIANTS
The Panthers have Matt Moore as their starting quarterback now, and they go on the road the first week to play a healthy Giants team playing its first regular season home game in a new stadium. Uh oh. Still, Moore has some help: the always-explosive Steve Smith and the solid running back tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Giants defense, more than likely, will be looking to stuff the run to force Moore to make some throws. In seven games last season, Moore completed 85 of 138 passes for 1,053 yards (150.4 per game), eight touchdowns, and two interceptions -- good enough for a 98.5 QB rating. He was also sacked just nine times and didn't lose a fumble. Even if he didn't throw for a ton of yards or touchdowns, that's still an efficient job of taking care of the ball. So will the Panthers open up their passing attack under Moore, or will they be content to hand the ball off a ton to Williams and Stewart, even if the offensive line can't open up holes early in the game?
The Panthers defense will also have their hands full with Eli Manning and a receiving corps -- Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham -- with the potential to have an outstanding season. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs also form a solid backfield duo, assuming Jacobs stops sulking after losing his starting job to Bradshaw.
I think the Giants will put out the W, but the Panthers will keep it close. Unless, of course, Moore starts playing like Jake Delhomme.
Dolphins (-3) over BILLS
The Bills are really bad. They'll start C.J. Spiller at running back, and he's really exciting to watch, but even with his Chris Johnson-like moves and quickness, he's still a rookie. Besides, can he really make up for Trent Edwards being their starting quarterback? I doubt it. Also, the Bills team website lists Steve Johnson as the starting wide receiver opposite No. 1 option Lee Evans. Can other people who follow the NFL closely honestly admit that they know who he is? I'm not so sure.
The Dolphins may not be world-beaters, but they're more talented than the Bills. And after all, if they can't take down a flawed Bills team in Week 1, even if the game is on the road, the potential for a great season may just not be there.
STEELERS (+1.5) over Falcons
The Steelers are going to be without Ben Roethlisberger for four games -- Dennis Dixon will get the start in Week 1 -- meaning that they're going to have to get back to their roots. That will likely mean a steady dose of Rashard Mendenhall and solid, hard-hitting defense. Mendenhall seems to be up for the challenge, and if Troy Polamalu truly is back to being 100 percent, the Steelers may be ready to boast a formidable defense again.
The Falcons, meanwhile, will have their starting quarterback ready to go to start the season, but still face the question of whether or not Matt Ryan is ready to take the leap to the next level of quarterbacks. Ryan had a fantastic rookie season and exceeded all expectations, posting a 87.7 QB rating and leading the Falcons to the playoffs. They didn't get out of the first round, but Falcons fans were confident in the team's future with Ryan under center. Then, Ryan took a bit of a step back last season, posting a lower QB rating (80.9), throwing for fewer yards per game (from 215.0 to 208.3), and throwing more interceptions (from 11 to 14). He did throw six more touchdown passes (from 16 to 22), but he also completed a lower percentage of his passes (from 61.1 to 58.3). Some of that can be contributed to Michael Turner getting hurt and playing in only 11 games, but it's at least worth noting that Ryan took at least a small step back. With Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez as receiving threats and Turner healthy, the Falcons need Ryan to step up in his third season.
Anyway, back to this game: If anyone can win a grind-it-out, ugly game, especially at home, it's the Steelers. Not having Roethlisberger definitely hurts their offense, but they still should find a way to run on the Falcons defense. And if the Steelers defense is completely healthy, even a rejuvenated Falcons attack will have trouble putting points on the board.
BEARS (-6.5) over Lions
I like what the Lions are doing. Matthew Stafford seems to be a competent quarterback, and he's still just 22 years old. The offensive line is slightly improved, and they drafted running back Jahvid Best, who will likely see a ton of work this year because of the current shape of Kevin Smith's knee. The Lions also have one of the best wideouts in the league, Calvin Johnson, and a few other decent receiving options like Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Tony Scheffler. They were also smart and brought in Shaun Hill, an experienced backup quarterback. And on defense, the Lions more than upgraded their defensive line, bringing in Kyle Vanden Bosch from Tennessee and drafting the monstrous Ndamukong Suh with the second pick in the 2010 draft. But how long will it take for all of these young pieces to mesh together? Stafford has a lot of promise, but he still threw 20 picks in his rookie season (also 13 touchdowns) and missed six games because of injuries. Best and Suh are also both rookies, and it'll be tough to expect too much of them out of the gate, even though they're both extremely talented.
The Bears did a little offseason work of their own, with their two biggest additions probably being defensive end Julius Peppers and offensive coordinator Mike Martz. With Peppers, the Bears hope to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and force more turnovers. And with Martz now calling the plays, the Bears expect to put more points on the board and make things easier for Cutler, who had the lowest QB rating of his career (76.8) last season (his first in Chicago). Cutler threw for 229.1 yards per game and had 27 touchdown passes last season, but he also threw 26 interceptions and was sacked a whopping 35 times. That'll have to change.
I'll take the Bears in this game, especially since they're at home, but I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Lions kept it close or even won -- and finished something like 5-11 or 6-10 on the season, which would be a significant improvement after their 2-14 record last season and, of course, their 0-16 2008 season.
Bengals (+5) over PATRIOTS
A few questions for the Patriots: 1) Is the real Randy Moss going to show up this season despite not having a new contract? 2) How healthy is Wes Welker, and how long will it take for him to return to form? 3) How much will Bill Belichick be able to get out of his defense, especially an unproven secondary? Still, as long as Brady stays healthy, the Patriots should be in a battle with the Jets to win the AFC East.
As for the Bengals, many people are overlooking them in the AFC North (in favor of the Ravens and Steelers) even though they were 10-6 last season and won the division. Then again, maybe that's because they won several close games and outscored their opponents by only 14 points -- by far the lowest point differential among all division winners. The Bengals decided to upgrade their receiving corps both in the draft (receiver Jordan Shipley and tight end Jermaine Gresham) and in free agency (Terrell Owens). Even if Owens has lost a step, his presence on one side of the field, with Chad Ochocinco on the other side, should give Shipley, Gresham, and any other slot receivers plenty of chances over the middle of the field. If Carson Palmer can use all of his weapons effectively and start throwing the ball down the field again, it'll do wonders for Cedric Benson and the Bengals running game, which, along with their defense, carried the team last season.
The Bengals have a knack for keeping games close, and I'd like to see how Welker looks in a real game before believing the Patriots can easily throw the ball up and down the field, let alone against a strong Bengals defense.
Browns (+3) over BUCCANEERS
The Browns boast a small dose of sleeper potential: They finished last season on a four-game winning streak, including a stunning 13-6 win over the Steelers; they found out last season that Jerome Harrison, now the unquestioned lead back after the season-ending ACL injury to Montario Hardesty, is capable of handling a full workload; and they picked up a solid backup quarterback in Seneca Wallace. But there are at least two problems: 1) Jake Delhomme is now their starting quarterback, and 2) they still play in the ultra-competitive AFC North. Delhomme may play well for a week or two, but don't be surprised if he stinks up the place and gets replaced by Wallace at some point in the first few weeks of the season.
The Bucs, likewise, don't have much of a chance of winning their division. Quarterback Josh Freeman, now in his second season, has a lot of work to do to improve on his awful rookie campaign: 59.9 QB rating, 54.6 completion percentage, 10 TD, 18 INT. Rookie receiver Mike Williams has a lot of promise, and Cadillac Williams is easy to root for and should get the majority of the team's carries, but other than tight end Kellen Winslow, the Bucs don't have many offensive threats.
The Browns are better than the Bucs and should be able to run the ball. But who really knows with these two teams.
Broncos (+3) over JAGUARS
Did either one of these teams really improve that much in the offseason? The Broncos, who started out the season hot and then faded to an 8-8 finish, traded away Brandon Marshall and currently have Brandon Lloyd listed as their No. 2 wide receiver opposite Eddie Royal. Yes, that Brandon Lloyd. Knowshon Moreno is an impressive talent and should be able to play in this game, but his main problem has been able to stay healthy. Their defense will also miss linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who's out for the year.
The Jaguars may be a little better than they were last season when they finished 7-9 but were still outscored by 90 points. Maurice Jones-Drew, as long as he's healthy, is always a big-play threat, and the defense should be improved as well. To have a chance at making the playoffs, they're going to need David Garrard to play like he did in 2007 instead of how he's looked the last two seasons. Unfortunately, while he hasn't been bad the last two seasons, he hasn't been great either -- and that just might not be enough for this team.
As long as Jones-Drew doesn't have a huge day, the Broncos should be able to contain the Jaguars offense and at the very least keep this game close. Kyle Orton may also put together a decent performance if the Jaguars can't put much pressure on him.
Colts (-2) over TEXANS
I could write a lot more about this game, especially since a lot of people believe this will be the year the Texans overtake the Colts in the AFC South, but I'll just say this: The Texans are certainly getting better and building a formidable team. But they're going to have to knock off the Colts first, at least before I believe they're taking that next big step. And they won't get a much better opportunity than playing the Colts in Week 1 in front of an excited home crowd.
TITANS (-6) over Raiders
The Raiders defense will keep them in a lot of games, but will their offense be able to put points on the board? Who knows? Jason Campbell provides an upgrade at quarterback, but he's already banged up and has certainly taken plenty of hits from his last few seasons behind Redskins' offensive lines. Darren McFadden gets the start at running back with Michael Bush out, but he hasn't necessarily showed a whole lot in his first two seasons. He's also injury-prone and has missed several games himself. Sooner or later, Campbell may be handing the ball off to Rock Cartwright again -- not necessarily the best of backfield options.
As for the Titans, their game plan hasn't changed that much: 1) get Chris Johnson plenty of carries, 2) don't ask Vince Young to do too much or force the ball down the field very often, and 3) play solid defense.
The Raiders defense is going to have their hands full with Johnson, but they still have the ability to keep the game close. I'd just like to see how well that Raiders offense performs first.
Packers (-3) over EAGLES
Another great matchup in this opening week. The Packers look like a Super Bowl contender with a high-powered offense, while the Eagles have a lot of great pieces with one giant question mark: How good is Kevin Kolb? If Kolb turns out to be a star, the Eagles may very well win the NFC East. But if he's not, he's going to have his hands full -- not just with opposing defenses, but with impatient Philly fans who will be wondering why Donovan McNabb isn't still in an Eagles uniform. Unless the Eagles defense plays a perfect game, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are going to put up plenty of points, so Kolb should have his chances in this game and get tested from the beginning.
49ers (-3) over SEAHAWKS
Cardinals (-4) over RAMS
It's the NFC West, so sure, anything can happen. But a pretty good defense, a solid running game, and a few talented receiving options should be enough to put the 49ers on top of the rest of the division.
REDSKINS (+3.5) over Cowboys
With two offensive linemen out, the Cowboys are wounded heading into the season. Still, with Tony Romo under center and lots of talent at the skill positions, the Cowboys should still be able to score at least a couple of touchdowns against the Redskins new, (potentially) ball-hawking 3-4 defense. The Redskins weren't particularly good at stopping the run during the preseason, but the injured Dallas linemen may play a factor in how well Marion Barber and Felix Jones perform.
On offense for the Redskins, McNabb isn't 100 percent and the offensive line will be tested by the Cowboys stout front four, led by DeMarcus Ware. The Redskins have a lot of questions on offense, so who knows how well all of these new pieces will respond in a rivalry game on Sunday Night Football in the season's first week.
This may be an ugly game played by two teams who look completely different by the time they meet again in December. And that's not necessarily a good thing for either team.
Ravens (+2) over JETS
This game may be the best of Week 1, and for me, the outcome comes down to this: I'd rather roll the dice with Joe Flacco against the Jets defense than Mark Sanchez against the Ravens defense. Regardless, both teams are very good, and they may end up meeting again in the playoffs. Sure, it's Week 1, but with Rex Ryan facing his former team and plenty of other storylines, stay tuned.
CHIEFS (+5) over Chargers
This Chiefs team seems a little different than in previous years. Matt Cassel is still under center, which isn't really all that great, but he's got some talent around him: Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers, and rookie Dexter McCluster. McCluster is sick and will likely miss this game, but that's still an impressive collection of skill players. Their defense may not be all that improved, but the addition of rookie safety Eric Berry certainly helps.
While the Chiefs have improved their overall talent, the Chargers may have taken a step back. The selection of running back Ryan Mathews in the draft filled a huge need with the departure of LaDainian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates may still be the best tight end in the NFL. But with tackle Marcus McNeill holding out and wide receiver Vincent Jackson out for at least the first six games (with the possibility that he may never play in San Diego again), the Chargers will be missing two steadying forces on offense. Mathews's presence allows Darren Sproles to keep returning kicks and punts and be the third-down back, so that's one positive, at least. But without Jackson, either Malcom Floyd or Legedu Naanee needs to step up as a reliable target for Philip Rivers.
I'm a fan of what the Chargers do on offense, and as long as Rivers and Gates are both healthy and Norv Turner is in charge of calling the plays, scoring points shouldn't be a problem. But sometimes, even the best teams need more talent, and having two very good players on the sidelines will come back to hurt them.
I think the Chargers will win this game, but I expect the Chiefs to be fired up at home on Monday Night Football.
As always, enjoy the games.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
The NFL is back: Vikings vs. Saints
The NFL gets underway tonight as the Vikings travel to New Orleans to take on the Super Bowl-winning Saints in a rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game.
Last season, I picked every NFL game against the spread, and my final record was 137-122-8. I guess that's not too bad, especially since that was the first time I actually did that before. Anyway, I'm going to be posting my picks again this season and keeping track of how I do. It's not the most exciting thing to post, but it's pretty fun -- and frustrating too. Sometimes I'll look closer at a game or at least give some sort of rationale for my picks, and other times I'll just quickly post them. Either way, I'll have them posted every week in one or two posts.
Vikings (+6) over SAINTS
I think this is going to be Brett Favre's last season -- and not because I listen to anything he says about his retirement. When Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams announced that he was going to do everything in his power to blitz Favre and make him uncomfortable, he provided a template for the rest of the league on how to defend the Vikings. Even if his defense couldn't prevent the Vikings from scoring every drive, Williams made a concerted effort to blitz Favre from all angles -- and when the Vikings defensive players got there, they hit Favre, and hit him hard. He's still dealing with an injured ankle that he suffered in that NFC Championship Game.
Favre is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play, but he turns 41 in October. At some point, he's going to stop bouncing up from hits and brushing minor injuries off so quickly. Basically, if the Vikings don't do everything in their power to protect Favre this season, they're in big trouble. Like many have already said, they've shown their hand about what they think about any other quarterback other than Favre starting on their roster -- they obviously have no confidence in Tarvaris Jackson. I think Favre is going to take a pounding this season, and afterwards he'll decide that maybe staying home and playing two-hand touch football with his Wrangler-wearing buddies is a lot more fun and less demanding at this stage of his career.
These teams are still two of the best in the NFC, and either could get to the Super Bowl this season. The Saints are very close to being the same team as last season -- same with the Vikings. The Saints deserve to be favorites -- not only did they win the Super Bowl, but they're also at home -- but the Vikings are still very close talent-wise. Teams are also usually rusty from the preseason in their first game, and I don't think this game will be any different.
If I had to pick a winner, I'd say the Saints, but I think it'll be a close game.
Last season, I picked every NFL game against the spread, and my final record was 137-122-8. I guess that's not too bad, especially since that was the first time I actually did that before. Anyway, I'm going to be posting my picks again this season and keeping track of how I do. It's not the most exciting thing to post, but it's pretty fun -- and frustrating too. Sometimes I'll look closer at a game or at least give some sort of rationale for my picks, and other times I'll just quickly post them. Either way, I'll have them posted every week in one or two posts.
Vikings (+6) over SAINTS
I think this is going to be Brett Favre's last season -- and not because I listen to anything he says about his retirement. When Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams announced that he was going to do everything in his power to blitz Favre and make him uncomfortable, he provided a template for the rest of the league on how to defend the Vikings. Even if his defense couldn't prevent the Vikings from scoring every drive, Williams made a concerted effort to blitz Favre from all angles -- and when the Vikings defensive players got there, they hit Favre, and hit him hard. He's still dealing with an injured ankle that he suffered in that NFC Championship Game.
Favre is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play, but he turns 41 in October. At some point, he's going to stop bouncing up from hits and brushing minor injuries off so quickly. Basically, if the Vikings don't do everything in their power to protect Favre this season, they're in big trouble. Like many have already said, they've shown their hand about what they think about any other quarterback other than Favre starting on their roster -- they obviously have no confidence in Tarvaris Jackson. I think Favre is going to take a pounding this season, and afterwards he'll decide that maybe staying home and playing two-hand touch football with his Wrangler-wearing buddies is a lot more fun and less demanding at this stage of his career.
These teams are still two of the best in the NFC, and either could get to the Super Bowl this season. The Saints are very close to being the same team as last season -- same with the Vikings. The Saints deserve to be favorites -- not only did they win the Super Bowl, but they're also at home -- but the Vikings are still very close talent-wise. Teams are also usually rusty from the preseason in their first game, and I don't think this game will be any different.
If I had to pick a winner, I'd say the Saints, but I think it'll be a close game.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Arrieta outduels Sabathia in O's win
Jake Arrieta and CC Sabathia both pitched 6.1 innings last night, but Sabathia allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits while Arrieta allowed just two runs on eight hits. Arrieta also walked only one batter while striking out three.
Matt Albers relieved Arrieta in the bottom of the seventh and entered the game in a tough situation -- the Yankees had runners on first and third, one out, and Alex Rodriguez at bat, pinch-hitting for Ramiro Pena. But Albers got two ground balls -- one by Rodriguez and another by Brett Gardner -- to get out of the inning unscathed. Albers, who also pitched a scoreless eighth, lowered his ERA to 4.09. He also hasn't allowed a run since August 14 -- a span of nine appearances. And with a four-run cushion, Mark Hendrickson pitched a scoreless ninth.
So, yes, the three-headed monster of Arrieta, Albers, and Hendrickson held the Yankees to two runs in September. Not a bad performance.
On the season, Arrieta has more walks (46) than strikeouts (44), but he's getting close to changing that and has walked only one batter in his last two starts.
On offense, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Ty Wigginton each had two hits. One of Wigginton's hits was a double. Nolan Reimold hit a two-run home run in the third, giving the O's a 5-1 lead at the time. Felix Pie drew the lone walk for the O's.
The O's have now won four games in a row -- two against the Rays, and two against the Yankees -- and are 4-3 in September. They'll go for the sweep in a day game today as Brad Bergesen faces 23-year-old Ivan Nova. And according to the game preview on ESPN, the O's will try for their first road sweep of the Yankees in more than 24 years.
ROY Watch: Brian Matusz won the first game of the series on Monday, pitching six innings and allowing three runs while striking out four and walking two. The outing didn't do much to lower his ERA (4.71), but he did win his fourth start in a row -- and winning in Yankee Stadium is always a good thing.
Matt Albers relieved Arrieta in the bottom of the seventh and entered the game in a tough situation -- the Yankees had runners on first and third, one out, and Alex Rodriguez at bat, pinch-hitting for Ramiro Pena. But Albers got two ground balls -- one by Rodriguez and another by Brett Gardner -- to get out of the inning unscathed. Albers, who also pitched a scoreless eighth, lowered his ERA to 4.09. He also hasn't allowed a run since August 14 -- a span of nine appearances. And with a four-run cushion, Mark Hendrickson pitched a scoreless ninth.
So, yes, the three-headed monster of Arrieta, Albers, and Hendrickson held the Yankees to two runs in September. Not a bad performance.
On the season, Arrieta has more walks (46) than strikeouts (44), but he's getting close to changing that and has walked only one batter in his last two starts.
On offense, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Ty Wigginton each had two hits. One of Wigginton's hits was a double. Nolan Reimold hit a two-run home run in the third, giving the O's a 5-1 lead at the time. Felix Pie drew the lone walk for the O's.
The O's have now won four games in a row -- two against the Rays, and two against the Yankees -- and are 4-3 in September. They'll go for the sweep in a day game today as Brad Bergesen faces 23-year-old Ivan Nova. And according to the game preview on ESPN, the O's will try for their first road sweep of the Yankees in more than 24 years.
ROY Watch: Brian Matusz won the first game of the series on Monday, pitching six innings and allowing three runs while striking out four and walking two. The outing didn't do much to lower his ERA (4.71), but he did win his fourth start in a row -- and winning in Yankee Stadium is always a good thing.
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Does Matusz have a chance at AL ROY?
In Keith Law's latest ESPN.com chat, someone had a question about Brian Matusz:
Let's take a look at Jackson, Matusz, and some of the other ROY options in the AL.
Austin Jackson, CF, Tigers: .309/.363/.419, 3 HR, 21 SB
Just looking at overall numbers, Jackson is having a phenomenal season for a rookie. He's not hitting for much power, but he's getting on base at a pretty good clip, stealing bases (and only caught five times), and playing slightly above average defense (0.9 UZR) at a difficult position. Those numbers make Jackson worth about 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) and nearly $13.8 million, according to FanGraphs.
However, exactly how sustainable are Jackson's numbers in the long term? Regardless of whether or not you think the ROY award should have some sort of future element linked to it, it should be noted that Jackson has an unsustainable .422 BABIP, and he also strikes out a lot (27.6 K%) while not really walking a ton (7.1 BB%). Right now, his combination of speed and hitting a lot of ground balls (48.9%) and line drives (25.7%) is working, but when his BABIP goes down, his numbers will drop as well. It's tough to suggest that he's been rather lucky for nearly an entire season, but that does seem to be the case.
With about a month left to go in the season, can Jackson keep it up? Or will his numbers start to drop before then? That may be the difference in whether or not he wins the award. (Though, position players do seem to hold an advantage to winning the award over pitchers since they play everyday.)
Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles: 4.72 ERA, 6.99 K/9, 3.23 BB/9
I've written about Matusz a few times lately, basically pointing out that he had a much-improved August and has been pitching much better. Right now, he's been worth 1.9 WAR and $7.8 million, first among AL rookie starters. He also has more strikeouts (117) and more innings pitched (150.2) than any other AL rookie.
Since I've talked about Matusz enough before, I'll mention something else: FanGraphs WAR tends to factor in defense and be slightly higher for position players, which may account for Jackson's WAR being 3.4 and Matusz's at 1.9. At Baseball-Reference, Jackson and Matusz are closer (2.5 for Jackson, 2.1 for Matusz). That's at least worth noting.
Brennan Boesch, OF, Tigers: .268/.330/.447, 14 HR
The Tigers promoted Boesch in late April, and he started out his major league career on fire. He was still mashing the ball until about early July, when his numbers started to tail off considerably. On July 9, Boesch was hitting .345/.402/.600 -- a rather impressive slash line for a rookie after a few months. But he's cooled off and isn't doing much hitting at all lately. In July, he hit .209/.311/.253, and in August he hit .185/.227/.304. Also, after hitting 11 home runs in May and June, Boesch has hit just two homers since.
It's unlikely that Boesch will turn his hitting numbers around this season; it's also possible that pitchers have found out how to pitch to him. And other than his hitting, Boesch doesn't bring a whole lot to the table -- as of right now, he has a combined UZR of -2.9 in left and right field. For the season, FanGraphs has him at 1.3 WAR, while Baseball-Reference has him at 1.7 WAR.
Danny Valencia, 3B, Twins: .343/.382/.454, 2 HR
Valencia's first game didn't come until June 3, so he's only played in 63 games. But he's been extremely valuable for the Twins -- 2.4 WAR on FanGraphs and 2.6 WAR on Baseball-Reference -- so it's certainly hard to ignore what he's done. Valencia doesn't hit for much power (only two homers), but he does have 16 doubles and a triple. He also doesn't walk much (6.4 BB%) but doesn't strike out a ton either (13.4 K%). He has hit a decent amount of line drives (19.6%) too, but mainly his offensive production is fueled by a .385 BABIP. That's not to suggest he's a bad hitter, but it's not likely that his numbers will still be this high by the end of the season.
And that's where the other valuable part of his game comes in handy: Valencia has been phenomenal defensively at third base. His UZR right now is 5.8, so even if his offensive numbers drop a bit, he'll still maintain plenty of value as long as he keeps producing with the glove.
Wade Davis, SP, Rays: 4.29 ERA, 5.69 K/9, 3.42 BB/9
Davis has put together two positive starts after coming back from the 15-day disabled list with a right shoulder strain. On August 24, he got the win against the Angels after giving up two runs in 5.1 innings, and on August 30, he held the Blue Jays to two runs over 7.2 innings to earn another win. Davis is a case in which his ERA doesn't necessarily indicate his true pitching performance -- he has a 5.10 FIP and a 4.96 xFIP -- so a pitcher like Matusz has had a better season even though Matusz has a higher ERA.
Still, Davis has held his own in his rookie season, though FanGraphs (0.3 WAR) and Baseball-Reference (1.7 WAR) differ on his value.
Reid Brignac, 2B/SS, Rays: .261/.310/.383, 6 HR
Like Ben Zobrist, Brignac can play multiple positions. This season, he's played most of his games at second base and shortstop, but he has also played a couple innings in right field, so he can likely play a few innings at a corner outfield spot and not hurt the Rays. His offensive numbers have cooled off somewhat, but then again, he doesn't receive regular playing time with guys like Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, and Sean Rodriguez all getting some time at the two middle infield positions.
While Brignac is flexible in the field, he's not really as flexible at the plate. He doesn't walk much (5.6 BB%), but he strikes out a huge amount (27.3 K%). He also hits a decent amount of line drives (20.7%), but he actually hits more fly balls (41.0%) than ground balls (38.3%).
Brignac has also been decent in the field, putting together a combined 1.6 UZR at shortstop and second. His fielding helps his value, especially since he doesn't get on base a whole lot.
Mitch Talbot, SP, Indians: 4.40 ERA, 4.95 K/9, 3.97 BB/9
This is basically just a brief mentioning of Talbot, as I don't think he has much of a chance at winning the award. In 147.1 innings pitched, he only has 81 strikeouts. He's done an effective job pitching to contact, getting lots of ground balls (48.3%) and not giving up too many line drives (17.0%). And it's not like he's been terribly lucky or anything either -- his BABIP is right around .300, at .302. FanGraphs (1.2) and Baseball-Reference (0.1) differ on his WAR, though, which is pretty interesting.
Neftali Feliz, RP, Rangers: 3.26 ERA, 34 saves, 9.16 K/9, 2.48 K/9
Feliz, the Rangers' 22-year-old flame-throwing closer, has been steady all season. He earned his first save of the season on April 12, and he hasn't looked back. In 58.0 innings pitched, he has 59 strikeouts and just 16 walks -- fantastic numbers for such a young player on a team most likely headed to the playoffs. He's also only blown three saves all season.
Because he's a reliever and hasn't pitched as many innings as some of the young starters, he probably won't receive a ton of votes. Still, he has a bright future, and the Rangers could even decide to give Feliz a chance to earn a spot in the team's rotation next spring. A solid starter is almost always worth more than an elite closer, so it would make sense to give Feliz a chance to start. Still, even if he ends up as the team's long-term closer, there's no reason why he can't shine in that role for years to come.
John Jaso, C, Rays: .281/.390/.405, 5 HR
Here's something I didn't know: Jaso was one of the Rays' September call-ups in 2008. Then, in 2009, he didn't make it to the majors at all. But he made his first start this season on April 17 and has stuck with the team since -- and he's doing a very good job. Splitting time with Dioner Navarro and Kelly Shoppach, Jaso has been the team's best option behind the plate. He's not afraid to take a walk (14.9%), and he actually walks more than he strikes out (12.0%). He hasn't hit for much power -- 15 doubles, two triples, five homers -- so most of his offensive value comes from drawing those walks and getting on base.
As a rookie, Jaso deserves credit for keeping that OBP high all season. He deserves even more credit for doing that while playing such a demanding position. If Carlos Santana were still healthy, it's not likely many people would have noticed the solid contributions of Jaso, but with Santana injured, Jaso is the AL's best rookie catcher playing right now.
-----
So that about does it. I may have missed a rookie or two, or listed maybe a couple of guys who either have no shot at winning or maybe didn't deserve to be mentioned. If I had to give my top three right now, it would probably look like this:
1. Austin Jackson
2. Brian Matusz
3. Danny Valencia
Because I didn't list every player's WAR, here's a ranking of all nine players above based on their WARs from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference averaged together. (Not that wins above replacement is the final word when it comes to ranking players, but it is still helpful.)
1. Austin Jackson (2.95)
2. Danny Valencia (2.50)
3. John Jaso (2.25)
4. Brian Matusz (2.00)
5. Brennan Boesch (1.50)
6. Neftali Feliz (1.35)
7. Wade Davis (1.00)
8. Reid Brignac (0.75)
9. Mitch Talbot (0.65)
So to answer the question of this post, yes, Matusz does have a chance at the AL Rookie of the Year award. But he's going to have to be fantastic in his last few starts this season, and he may even need guys like Jackson and Valencia to take a step back. Jaso might have a chance as well, but the award may just be Jackson's to lose.
Bub (DC)Not a bad compliment at all. And as far as the Rookie of the Year award goes, there's no question that the National League race is more exciting this season than in the American League. But, as always, there are still candidates to be sorted and an award to be handed out. Catcher Carlos Santana of the Indians would have been the clear-cut winner if he had stayed healthy, but he's out for the season and hasn't played since August 2. Tigers centerfielder Austin Jackson seems to be the front-runner at this point, but with the run Matusz went on in August, he's making a push for the award.
Matusz started off great, then terrible, now he looks great again. Can he be a legitimate top of the rotation starter as soon as next season?
Klaw (2:18 PM)
I might still vote for him as AL ROY if I had that ballot. I certainly believe in his long-term value far more than I believe in Austin Jackson's, and the AL East is a brutal place to pitch, especially if you don't get to face the division's worst lineup. I'll say he's an ace in 2012 or 2013, with modest improvements next year.
Let's take a look at Jackson, Matusz, and some of the other ROY options in the AL.
Austin Jackson, CF, Tigers: .309/.363/.419, 3 HR, 21 SB
Just looking at overall numbers, Jackson is having a phenomenal season for a rookie. He's not hitting for much power, but he's getting on base at a pretty good clip, stealing bases (and only caught five times), and playing slightly above average defense (0.9 UZR) at a difficult position. Those numbers make Jackson worth about 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) and nearly $13.8 million, according to FanGraphs.
However, exactly how sustainable are Jackson's numbers in the long term? Regardless of whether or not you think the ROY award should have some sort of future element linked to it, it should be noted that Jackson has an unsustainable .422 BABIP, and he also strikes out a lot (27.6 K%) while not really walking a ton (7.1 BB%). Right now, his combination of speed and hitting a lot of ground balls (48.9%) and line drives (25.7%) is working, but when his BABIP goes down, his numbers will drop as well. It's tough to suggest that he's been rather lucky for nearly an entire season, but that does seem to be the case.
With about a month left to go in the season, can Jackson keep it up? Or will his numbers start to drop before then? That may be the difference in whether or not he wins the award. (Though, position players do seem to hold an advantage to winning the award over pitchers since they play everyday.)
Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles: 4.72 ERA, 6.99 K/9, 3.23 BB/9
I've written about Matusz a few times lately, basically pointing out that he had a much-improved August and has been pitching much better. Right now, he's been worth 1.9 WAR and $7.8 million, first among AL rookie starters. He also has more strikeouts (117) and more innings pitched (150.2) than any other AL rookie.
Since I've talked about Matusz enough before, I'll mention something else: FanGraphs WAR tends to factor in defense and be slightly higher for position players, which may account for Jackson's WAR being 3.4 and Matusz's at 1.9. At Baseball-Reference, Jackson and Matusz are closer (2.5 for Jackson, 2.1 for Matusz). That's at least worth noting.
Brennan Boesch, OF, Tigers: .268/.330/.447, 14 HR
The Tigers promoted Boesch in late April, and he started out his major league career on fire. He was still mashing the ball until about early July, when his numbers started to tail off considerably. On July 9, Boesch was hitting .345/.402/.600 -- a rather impressive slash line for a rookie after a few months. But he's cooled off and isn't doing much hitting at all lately. In July, he hit .209/.311/.253, and in August he hit .185/.227/.304. Also, after hitting 11 home runs in May and June, Boesch has hit just two homers since.
It's unlikely that Boesch will turn his hitting numbers around this season; it's also possible that pitchers have found out how to pitch to him. And other than his hitting, Boesch doesn't bring a whole lot to the table -- as of right now, he has a combined UZR of -2.9 in left and right field. For the season, FanGraphs has him at 1.3 WAR, while Baseball-Reference has him at 1.7 WAR.
Danny Valencia, 3B, Twins: .343/.382/.454, 2 HR
Valencia's first game didn't come until June 3, so he's only played in 63 games. But he's been extremely valuable for the Twins -- 2.4 WAR on FanGraphs and 2.6 WAR on Baseball-Reference -- so it's certainly hard to ignore what he's done. Valencia doesn't hit for much power (only two homers), but he does have 16 doubles and a triple. He also doesn't walk much (6.4 BB%) but doesn't strike out a ton either (13.4 K%). He has hit a decent amount of line drives (19.6%) too, but mainly his offensive production is fueled by a .385 BABIP. That's not to suggest he's a bad hitter, but it's not likely that his numbers will still be this high by the end of the season.
And that's where the other valuable part of his game comes in handy: Valencia has been phenomenal defensively at third base. His UZR right now is 5.8, so even if his offensive numbers drop a bit, he'll still maintain plenty of value as long as he keeps producing with the glove.
Wade Davis, SP, Rays: 4.29 ERA, 5.69 K/9, 3.42 BB/9
Davis has put together two positive starts after coming back from the 15-day disabled list with a right shoulder strain. On August 24, he got the win against the Angels after giving up two runs in 5.1 innings, and on August 30, he held the Blue Jays to two runs over 7.2 innings to earn another win. Davis is a case in which his ERA doesn't necessarily indicate his true pitching performance -- he has a 5.10 FIP and a 4.96 xFIP -- so a pitcher like Matusz has had a better season even though Matusz has a higher ERA.
Still, Davis has held his own in his rookie season, though FanGraphs (0.3 WAR) and Baseball-Reference (1.7 WAR) differ on his value.
Reid Brignac, 2B/SS, Rays: .261/.310/.383, 6 HR
Like Ben Zobrist, Brignac can play multiple positions. This season, he's played most of his games at second base and shortstop, but he has also played a couple innings in right field, so he can likely play a few innings at a corner outfield spot and not hurt the Rays. His offensive numbers have cooled off somewhat, but then again, he doesn't receive regular playing time with guys like Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, and Sean Rodriguez all getting some time at the two middle infield positions.
While Brignac is flexible in the field, he's not really as flexible at the plate. He doesn't walk much (5.6 BB%), but he strikes out a huge amount (27.3 K%). He also hits a decent amount of line drives (20.7%), but he actually hits more fly balls (41.0%) than ground balls (38.3%).
Brignac has also been decent in the field, putting together a combined 1.6 UZR at shortstop and second. His fielding helps his value, especially since he doesn't get on base a whole lot.
Mitch Talbot, SP, Indians: 4.40 ERA, 4.95 K/9, 3.97 BB/9
This is basically just a brief mentioning of Talbot, as I don't think he has much of a chance at winning the award. In 147.1 innings pitched, he only has 81 strikeouts. He's done an effective job pitching to contact, getting lots of ground balls (48.3%) and not giving up too many line drives (17.0%). And it's not like he's been terribly lucky or anything either -- his BABIP is right around .300, at .302. FanGraphs (1.2) and Baseball-Reference (0.1) differ on his WAR, though, which is pretty interesting.
Neftali Feliz, RP, Rangers: 3.26 ERA, 34 saves, 9.16 K/9, 2.48 K/9
Feliz, the Rangers' 22-year-old flame-throwing closer, has been steady all season. He earned his first save of the season on April 12, and he hasn't looked back. In 58.0 innings pitched, he has 59 strikeouts and just 16 walks -- fantastic numbers for such a young player on a team most likely headed to the playoffs. He's also only blown three saves all season.
Because he's a reliever and hasn't pitched as many innings as some of the young starters, he probably won't receive a ton of votes. Still, he has a bright future, and the Rangers could even decide to give Feliz a chance to earn a spot in the team's rotation next spring. A solid starter is almost always worth more than an elite closer, so it would make sense to give Feliz a chance to start. Still, even if he ends up as the team's long-term closer, there's no reason why he can't shine in that role for years to come.
John Jaso, C, Rays: .281/.390/.405, 5 HR
Here's something I didn't know: Jaso was one of the Rays' September call-ups in 2008. Then, in 2009, he didn't make it to the majors at all. But he made his first start this season on April 17 and has stuck with the team since -- and he's doing a very good job. Splitting time with Dioner Navarro and Kelly Shoppach, Jaso has been the team's best option behind the plate. He's not afraid to take a walk (14.9%), and he actually walks more than he strikes out (12.0%). He hasn't hit for much power -- 15 doubles, two triples, five homers -- so most of his offensive value comes from drawing those walks and getting on base.
As a rookie, Jaso deserves credit for keeping that OBP high all season. He deserves even more credit for doing that while playing such a demanding position. If Carlos Santana were still healthy, it's not likely many people would have noticed the solid contributions of Jaso, but with Santana injured, Jaso is the AL's best rookie catcher playing right now.
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So that about does it. I may have missed a rookie or two, or listed maybe a couple of guys who either have no shot at winning or maybe didn't deserve to be mentioned. If I had to give my top three right now, it would probably look like this:
1. Austin Jackson
2. Brian Matusz
3. Danny Valencia
Because I didn't list every player's WAR, here's a ranking of all nine players above based on their WARs from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference averaged together. (Not that wins above replacement is the final word when it comes to ranking players, but it is still helpful.)
1. Austin Jackson (2.95)
2. Danny Valencia (2.50)
3. John Jaso (2.25)
4. Brian Matusz (2.00)
5. Brennan Boesch (1.50)
6. Neftali Feliz (1.35)
7. Wade Davis (1.00)
8. Reid Brignac (0.75)
9. Mitch Talbot (0.65)
So to answer the question of this post, yes, Matusz does have a chance at the AL Rookie of the Year award. But he's going to have to be fantastic in his last few starts this season, and he may even need guys like Jackson and Valencia to take a step back. Jaso might have a chance as well, but the award may just be Jackson's to lose.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Redskins' trades with Rams under investigation by NFLPA
Earlier this week, the Redskins made two separate trades with the Rams that seemed a little strange at the time. In one deal, the Redskins acquired linebacker Hall Davis, a fifth-round draft selection. In another, the Rams acquired tight end Dennis Morris, the Redskins' sixth-round pick. Each player was traded for a future conditional draft pick.
Davis, oddly enough, was cut after just one practice with the Redskins, and although Morris hasn't been cut by the Rams yet, he's not expected to remain on the roster beyond Saturday, when rosters are trimmed down to 53 players.
According to Redskins Insider via an ESPN report by Chris Mortensen, the NFL Players Association is currently investigating a potential rule violation:
By trading away Morris and allowing the Rams release him, the Redskins could potentially save $272,000. The Rams would benefit from a similar amount of savings after Davis's release from the Redskins.
Two quotes from Richard Berthelsen of the NFLPA in the ESPN report are worth noting:
Davis, oddly enough, was cut after just one practice with the Redskins, and although Morris hasn't been cut by the Rams yet, he's not expected to remain on the roster beyond Saturday, when rosters are trimmed down to 53 players.
According to Redskins Insider via an ESPN report by Chris Mortensen, the NFL Players Association is currently investigating a potential rule violation:
In the current uncapped year, a team must pay a drafted rookie 85 percent of his first-year minimum-wage $310,000 salary if the team chooses to release the player. But by shipping the rookie to another team and allowing that new team to then release him, the original team doesn't lose any money. And that appears to be what happened this week -- twice.Because it's an uncapped season, things are a little different and it looks like the Redskins and Rams may have been trying to save a little money. According to the ESPN report, the above rule, called the 85-percent rule, "has been in the CBA since 1993 but this is the first year it has been triggered because there is no salary cap in 2010."
By trading away Morris and allowing the Rams release him, the Redskins could potentially save $272,000. The Rams would benefit from a similar amount of savings after Davis's release from the Redskins.
Two quotes from Richard Berthelsen of the NFLPA in the ESPN report are worth noting:
"It's true that we're monitoring it but we wouldn't do anything until the end of the year when we know the proportion that is either paid out or not paid out. . . . Unless there's some hidden provision I don't know about, then these teams may not understand the rule itself but I'm sure they will now. Like I said, that's not something we would be able to verify until after the season."Here's my take: I'm sure both teams' front offices knew about the rule; why would they make such a trade in the first place if they didn't? And how often does a team acquire a player only to cut him after a single practice? I'm sure it doesn't happen that much -- at all. Maybe the Redskins and Rams figure they can get one over on the league and save a little money. But I guess we'll have to wait until after the season to find out what really happened and if there will be any punishment.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
O's take first game against Red Sox, face tough test today
Brian Matusz allowed just two runs in six innings, striking out six and walking just one, and Luke Scott and Felix Pie both hit solo home runs in the eighth to give the Orioles a 5-2 win over the Red Sox.
The two runs scored on Matusz came on a two-run shot by Jed Lowrie in the fifth, but those were the only runs the Red Sox could muster against Matusz and the O's bullpen. But with Matusz running out of gas after 98 pitches, the well-rested bullpen went to work, and Jim Johnson, Michael Gonzalez, and Koji Uehara combined for three shutout innings to close the game out. Uehara was particularly impressive, earning a five-out save (his fifth).
The only O's hitters without a hit were Cesar Izturis and Josh Bell, and Scott and Brian Roberts each had two hits. Scott also walked. Nick Markakis went 1-4 with a double, which just happened to be a milestone hit. According to Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com, with the hit Markakis became the 19th outfielder since 1900 to record four seasons with at least 40 doubles. Congrats, Nick.
Tonight, though, the O's face a difficult obstacle in Red Sox ace Jon Lester. Lester is already having another fantastic season -- 14-8, 3.12 ERA, 176 K, 63 BB -- but he particularly thrives against the O's. In 15 career starts against Baltimore, Lester is 12-0 with a 2.00 ERA with 77 strikeouts and just 31 walks. The O's will counter with Jake Arrieta (5.10 ERA, 39 K, 46 BB), who lasted just four innings in his last start, against the White Sox. This will be Arrieta's first career start against the Red Sox.
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