What they're saying about the Uehara trade

Yesterday, the Orioles made two trades. First, they sent Koji Uehara to the Rangers in exchange for corner infielder Chris Davis and pitcher Tommy Hunter. The O's also sent $2 million to the Rangers in the deal. Second, the O's then shipped Derrek Lee and some cash to the Pirates for prospect Aaron Baker, a Single-A first baseman. Baker is not viewed as a top prospect.

The Lee deal was made to free up playing time for the newly acquired Davis. The O's possibly saved some money on the rest of Lee's deal, but it also hasn't been reported how much cash they're sending to the Pirates. Still, it's a minor move that was a no-brainer.

The Uehara trade, though, is more important. Here's what others are saying about it:

- "Both Hunter and Davis are under team control for a long time. Uehara has a vesting option for 2012, worth $4 million with additional bonuses. This looks like a good longer-term gamble for the Orioles, while the Rangers land immediate help in exchange for two guys who probably weren't in their future plans." Jeff Sullivan, Baseball Nation

- "Davis has more upside, but is less likely to reach it. Really, he should spell his name with a ‘K,’ because his career strikeout rate (31.7%) would rank among the league leaders every year if he qualified for the batting title. He’s been trying to cut down that number with limited success, but really he should be focusing on his walk rate. Players like Russell Branyan have shown us that a bad strikeout rate, paired with a strong walk rate and gobs of power, can make for a useful (if winding) major league career. At this point, he’s a flier taken by a team looking to acquire young talent." Eno Sarris, FanGraphs

- "Moving to the Orioles, Davis might have another shot of realizing those big league dreams. Derrek Lee(notes) has been traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates. And manager Buck Showalter probably has some familiarity with Davis, having been the Rangers' skipper when Davis was drafted in 2006.
The Orioles also get some help for their starting rotation in Hunter. While he didn't start any games this year for the Rangers, largely due to a groin injury he suffered in the spring, Hunter did make 41 starts over the previous two seasons. Baltimore may also like a groundball pitcher who relies on control working in a hitters' park like Camden Yards." Ian Casselberry, Big League Stew

- "Edged out for playing time in Texas by the more consistent Mitch Moreland, Davis has mashed this season in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, batting .368/.405/.824 with 24 home runs in just 193 at-bats. (He hit .327 in the PCL last year to finish second in the batting race.) Still, Davis lacks plate discipline and figures to remain a streaky hitter prone to slumps and short bursts where he's a force—in other words, a lefthanded-hitting Mark Reynolds. . . . The Rangers used Davis' third and final minor league option to send him to Round Rock this season, so the Orioles will have to keep him in the big leagues in 2012 or risk losing him on waivers." John Manuel and Matt Eddy, Baseball America

However, leave it to Keith Law to provide the snarky take on the O's haul:

Playing with Tinkertoys? RT @drtomfowler: @keithlaw If MacPhail calls Davis & Hunter building blocks, what is he building?Sun Jul 31 04:04:49 via Seesmickeithlaw
keithlaw

Most people seem to think the deal was a win-win for both teams. I rather would have had Andy MacPhail target some actual prospects, but it's hard to argue his logic in making this trade. As long as the O's play Davis consistently, they should be able to figure out whether he's competent enough to stick in the majors or if he's, in fact, a 4-A player. Hunter should have no problem sticking in the O's rotation, especially considering how awful the O's young pitchers look. Also, both players are 25 and have several years of team control left between them.

It's not clear whether or not Mark Reynolds will stay at third or move across the diamond to first. Honestly, I'd like to see them put Davis at first and let Josh Bell (no superior defender either) man third, while letting Reynolds serve as the designated hitter. But with Vladimir Guerrero on the roster, there's basically no chance of that. Bell will likely be sent back to Triple-A Norfolk, which is a shame. Considering Lee's little trade value, Guerrero probably has even less since he's exclusively a DH at this point. At least Lee can play a decent first base.

The Baseball America writers (link above) also commented on Davis's defense: "He has improved defensively at third base and can play either infield corner but is better suited defensively to first, despite good arm strength. Scouting reports on him at third base regularly include the word 'adequate.'" An adequate defender would be leaps and bounds above what Reynolds has done at third base this season. But again, with Guerrero on the roster, either Davis or Reynolds will play third.

It's been clear for weeks/months that the O's are terrible and need to start freeing up positions and playing time for some of their younger players (even though there don't appear to be many talented ones). Lee was one of the players that needed to be moved, and that has been taken care of. Vlad needs to be the next.

As far as Uehara's departure goes, he'll clearly be missed by O's fans. For a team that both struggles to sign free agents and doesn't do a good job scouting and signing international talent, the O's did a fantastic job in both when they signed Uehara, the O's first Japanese player, in 2009 to a two-year, $10 million deal. Uehara was originally a starter, but he had trouble staying healthy and pitching late into games. He was still pretty effective as a starter, but he'd get tired by the fifth inning and have to be replaced.

The O's eventually moved Uehara to the bullpen, where he quickly thrived and became one of the team's best options. He was re-signed in the 2011 offseason and was having another fantastic season this year before being shipped to Texas.

As long as he can deal with the Texas heat, Uehara should be just as effective for the Rangers as he was in Baltimore. There's not a whole lot to get excited about as an O's fan, but watching Uehara work quickly and pound the strike zone was certainly a refreshing sight.

What exactly do the O's expect for Guthrie?

MLB's non-waiver deadline is July 31, so the Orioles still have two days to trade Jeremy Guthrie, Koji Uehara, or anyone else they deem worthy of a deal. And even though it can make sense to wait until the last few hours to make a deal -- other teams that are bidding against each other may get desperate and overpay -- I can't help but get the feeling that the O's are asking for too much in return for some of their players. And then I read the following on Roch Kubatko's latest School of Roch post:

The Tigers and Indians remain serious suitors for Guthrie. The Orioles need a major-league ready arm. They'd love a first base prospect.

They won't dump Guthrie and be left with another gaping hole in their rotation, but the offers might have sweetened tonight.

If the O's are trying to fool teams into thinking they absolutely won't deal Guthrie or Uehara unless a major-league ready arm or premium first-base prospect is included in the deal, that's fine, I guess. But if they really think one of those will be thrown in, they're fooling themselves.

Guthrie is a slightly above average starter, and he's under team control (last arbitration year) for one more season. He's making $5.75 million this season, so unless he completely falls apart the rest of this season, he'll receive a raise. Uehara's case is a little different: He's making only $3 million this season and has a $4 million vesting option for 2012. Guthrie is slightly more valuable because of the amount of innings he throws (he's a starter, after all), but when factoring in the money owed to each and how well Uehara has been pitching, there's not an enormous difference in their values. Some team might actually pay more for a lights-out reliever like Uehara rather than a decent starter like Guthrie. Again, it all depends on which teams are serious about trading.

Guess what, though? The O's are 42-60. Guthrie has aided their weak rotation this year, and without him the O's would be worse. But they wouldn't be that much worse that they should consider holding onto him just because they aren't overwhelmed with a significant trade offer. That doesn't mean the O's should give him away for nothing, but he should be dealt. This situation is similar to their decision to keep Luke Scott at the height of his trade value instead of getting a decent prospect or two in return. And look how that's turned out.

So what should the O's expect in return for Guthrie? A Dempsey's Army post by Donovan Moore tackled that very topic on July 21:

[I]n order to break even any potential trade for Guthrie, the Orioles would need to get back a Grade B hitter ($5.5M) + a Grade C pitcher 22 or younger ($2.1M). Given MacPhail’s affinity for pitching prospects, maybe he would look to get back a Grade B pitcher ($7.3M) + a Grade C hitter 23 or older ($0.5). These would be instances where the Orioles set themselves up to break even on a deal for Guthrie—but if offered anything more than these examples, they should definitely jump right on it.

I encourage you to check out the whole post for the tables and rationale on why the O's need to deal Guthrie now.

Flurry of moves continue for Redskins (updated)

I have to hand it to the Redskins; they are making a plethora of moves to overhaul their roster, and even though they seem to be targeting a few random free agents, most of them actually fit their current offensive and defensive systems. There's little to be gained by discussing the Albert Haynesworth trade much further -- fans have been waiting for months for the Skins to ship Haynesworth out of Washington -- so let's examine what else happened yesterday:

Brandon Stokley backs out of deal

So much for the whole Stokley-to-the-Redskins thing. Apparently, Stokley initially agreed to terms with the Redskins, but yesterday he decided to go elsewhere. Stokley is 35 and an injury-prone wide receiver, so there wasn't a great chance that he'd make the roster. And now there's no chance.

At the end of the linked PFT piece above, Mike Florio mentioned that "the Redskins aren’t happy about this one." Maybe, but their fans don't mind it.

Signed Stephen Bowen

The most surprising signing of the day (for the Skins, at least) had to be defensive end Stephen Bowen. Not only did the Redskins hand Bowen, apparently a sleeper/below-the-radar type of signing, a five-year, $27.5 million deal ($12.5 million guaranteed), but they also lured him away from the division-rival Cowboys. The most significant reshaping going on with the Redskins right now is on the defensive line, where the Redskins have added Jarvis Jenkins via the draft and Barry Cofield and now Bowen via free agency. Bowen and Cofield are both 27.

Unlike Cofield, who came from a 4-3 defense and may not the most ideal player to fill the nose tackle role, Bowen comes from a 3-4 defense and is seen as a pretty reliable defensive end. The main concern is that the Skins may have overpaid Bowen, a guy who's been more of a part-time player who's only really started games when others in front of him were hurt. But again, the Redskins seem to be banking on his potential to produce when giving more time on the field.

Agreed to terms with Chris Chester

At some point, the Redskins were going to address at least one of their needs on the offensive line. They did just that by signing Chris Chester away from the Ravens with a five-year, $20 million deal (can't seem to find how much of it's guaranteed). Chester, 28, will apparently fill the right guard slot for the Redskins, but he can also fill in at center if necessary.

Chester seemed to fall out of favor with the Ravens, and he wasn't guaranteed to start for them. With the Redskins, though, Chester seems to be an adequate acquisition because he's athletic enough to thrive in Mike Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme. That doesn't mean the Redskins didn't overpay for him; they always seem to overpay for most of their signings.

Signed their draft picks

Last night, the Redskins signed their top two draft picks, Ryan Kerrigan and Jarvis Jenkins, to deals. The terms of those deals haven't been made available yet.

According to Rick Maese (in the Jarvis link), the only unsigned draft pick left for the Redskins is Maurice Hurt, an offensive lineman they selected in the seventh round. Everyone else is on board and scheduled to practice.

Update: According to John Keim, Kerrigan was the last draft pick to agree to a deal, so Hurt's apparently signed already. So that's good news.

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By the way, here's a list of players the Redskins have released so far, via PFT's Release tracker:

- Casey Rabach
- Phillip Daniels
- Maake Kemoeatu
- Chad Simpson
- Andre Brown
- Roydell Williams
- Josh Bidwell
- Sam Paulescu

No arguments here.

Redskins deal Haynesworth to Patriots

As I was just finishing my previous post on yesterday's Redskins moves, I saw this: According to Adam Schefter, the Skins have traded Albert Haynesworth to the Patriots in exchange for a fifth-round pick in 2013.

To get anything at all for Haynesworth at this point seems like a solid move, even if it's a fifth-round choice in a couple years. The Redskins have now dealt away their two biggest headaches from last season: Donovan McNabb and Haynesworth. And by trading with the Patriots (always a little scary because of the Bill Belichick angle), the Skins also succeeded in keeping Haynesworth away from the Eagles or any other NFC East team.

So long, McNabb and Haynesworth. And congratulations, Redskins, for finally making these deals happen.

Redskins stay busy, gobble up WRs

On Tuesday, the Redskins signed defensive tackle Barry Cofield and brought back Santana Moss at a modest price. They also were very close to trading away Donovan McNabb; that deal was recently completed (for one sixth-round pick next year and a conditional sixth-round pick the year after).

But those moves were just the beginning. The Redskins filled yesterday with more activity, working hard to fill a bunch of holes on the roster. Here's what they did:

Went after wide receivers

The Redskins signed Donte Stallworth and Brandon Stokley to one-year deals. They also traded for Jabar Gaffney, dealing defensive lineman Jeremy Jarmon to the Broncos to acquire him. That seems to be selling low on the 23-year-old Jarmon, who never really fit in the Redskins' defensive system when they switched to a 3-4 scheme. It's worth noting that the Redskins spent a third-round pick to select Jarmon in the 2009 supplemental draft then dealt him away for an average receiver in Gaffney -- that's not exactly the best of planning.

Some people are furious with the above moves. Others decided to go the comedic route, which is slightly better. But I don't understand all of the outrage. I'm not saying it's the best idea to target receivers who are 35 (Stokley), 30 (Stallworth), and also 30 (Gaffney). But the only guy who's basically guaranteed to make the roster is Gaffney. The other two seem to be buy-low guys. Both are injury-prone receivers, but maybe the Redskins will get lucky with one of them and be able to hang on to a cheap, decent wide receiver for most of the upcoming season. If not, and they get hurt or don't play well, the Redskins can simply get rid of them.

The only reasonable concern I've heard is that signing these guys will take some reps away from some of the younger or recently drafted receivers -- guys like Anthony Armstrong, Leonard Hankerson, Terrence Austin, Niles Paul, etc. I know there are currently several more receivers on the roster, but those seem like the most likely guys to get a chance to stick around. I found it tough to believe that the Shanahans would overlook what Armstrong did last season, and I'm sure they also want to see what Hankerson and the others can bring to the table when they start practicing. Still, I think it's too early for all the outrage for bringing in two receivers on one-year deals and trading away a player who was probably going to get cut for another receiver. If all three guys miraculously make the team or they start significantly taking away from the development of the other young receivers, then that'll be the time to wonder why these moves were made in the first place.

By the way, as reported by Rick Maese of The Washington Post, Hankerson was the first Skins draft pick to sign.

Signed Josh Wilson

While the Redskins were busy going after wide receivers, many wondered why they were neglecting other weak spots on the roster. Yesterday evening, though, the Redskins addressed their cornerback deficiency, agreeing to terms with Josh Wilson. Wilson, 26, signed for $13.5 million over three years, with $6 million guaranteed. The Wilson deal also signals the end of the Carlos Rogers era in Washington.

With Wilson on board, the Redskins seem to have a decent group of starting defensive backs: LaRon Landry and O.J. Atogwe at safety, and DeAngelo Hall and Wilson at cornerback. Some other defensive backs like Kevin Barnes will see the field, but those are the main four when healthy. If the Redskins can get any kind of consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year, the defense should be markedly better.

Brought in Kellen Clemens

The quietest move of the day for Washington was the decision to sign Kellen Clemens to a one-year deal. Clemens will likely battle with Rex Grossman (if he returns) or someone else for the backup quarterback spot. Then again, the Skins may make a move at quarterback if they're not content to roll the dice with John Beck or Grossman.

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For what it's worth, after a couple days the biggest deal the Redskins have handed out is the six-year, $36 million ($12.5 million guaranteed) deal for Cofield.

Redskins notes: McNabb, Moss, Cofield

The lockout is over, so you know what that means: It's time for the Redskins to win the offseason! Besides signing a few undrafted free agents, here's what the Skins have done so far:

Close to trading Donovan McNabb

According to Jay Glazer of Fox Sports, the Redskins and Vikings have agreed to the framework of a deal that would send McNabb to the Vikings:

Vikes agree to trade 6th rounder in 12 and possibly 6th in 13 to Wash for Donovan McNabb. Deal contingent on McNabb agreeing to much less $$Wed Jul 27 03:13:03 via UberSocialJay Glazer
Jay_Glazer

Glazer has also reported that the deal is not yet done and that the two sides are "trying to work out dollars." Still, McNabb was never going to see that $10 million bonus from the Redskins at the beginning of the upcoming season, so he'd be wise to work out a deal with the Vikings so that he can go to a team that actually wants him. Then again, if he'd rather go somewhere else or wants more money, he can refuse to restructure his contract and possibly force the Redskins to cut him instead.

Considering what the Redskins traded to the Eagles to pick up McNabb in the first place, a sixth rounder or two doesn't seem like much. However, the Redskins weren't going to bring McNabb back after what happened last season, so it's smart for them to get whatever they can while also removing him from the roster. If this deal gets done, then it's your turn, Albert Haynesworth.

Re-signed Santana Moss

According to Adam Schefter, the Redskins and Moss agreed to a three-year, $15 million deal. $6 million of that is apparently guaranteed. Moss is 32 and has been injury-prone at times, but this type of deal doesn't present much risk. It's not that much money, and Moss is already comfortable in the Redskins offense.

I'd be surprised if the Skins didn't target another wide receiver in free agency, mainly because they like to make a big splash. But even if they did go out and overpay for someone like Santonio Holmes or Sidney Rice, would it really even help the offense out that much? Anyway, the Moss signing seems rational.

Agreed to terms with Barry Cofield

The Redskins have signed the now-former Giants defensive tackle to a six-year, $36 million deal, according to Rich Campbell of The Washington Times. The deal includes $12.5 million in guaranteed money. The Skins were targeting/continue to target defensive line help, and Cofield was a solid defensive tackle in the Giants' 4-3 system. At age 27, Cofield is 6'4 and 306 pounds, so he has the size the Redskins are looking for. But, as The Washington Post's Mike Jones reports, "[Cofield] is listed as a nose tackle according to NFL.com. It’s not immediately clear if he will play nose tackle or end for the Redskins’ 3-4 defense."

Cofield can play, though: In five seasons and a possible 80 games, he's played in 79 of them. He's also accumulated 211 tackles and 10.5 sacks. So as long as he stays healthy and occupies multiple blockers, he should be a helpful addition. Still, spending big money on a player who might not exactly fit? That certainly seems like a typical Redskins move.

Oddly, Redskins fire team blogger Matt Terl

Wondering how the Redskins make decisions as an organization is increasingly becoming a useless task, but they made yet another curious one when they recently decided not to bring back Matt Terl, the team's official blogger at Redskins Blog.

Here's what happened, via The Washington Post's Erik Wemple:

According to Redskins spokesperson Tony Wyllie, Terl has fallen victim to a “restructuring” of the team’s department of broadcasting and Internet.

Will the team hire a replacement? “We’ll announce what we’re doing once everything’s all set,” says Wyllie. Pressed further, Wyllie offered the Standard Executive’s Personnel-Matter Comment Exemption.

When asked what’s up, Terl said he’s “guessing I’m laid off. It’s not for performance or anything of that nature.” His last post is about a fifth-round draft pick’s thoughts on the movie “Captain America: The First Avenger.”

“That’s a staggeringly dumb last post,” says Terl.

Instead of simply being a shill for the team, Terl provided lots of interesting and original content in a refreshing way -- a shocking thing considering he worked for the Redskins. But the team wants to go in a different direction, and I guess it's their right to do so. But it's still a peculiar move; not only did Terl do a great job, but I honestly can't remember reading anything negative about his work. Sure, the cartoons were kind of wacky, but they didn't take away from the solid work on the website, either.

Terl also linked to one of my posts (here, about Cam Newton), which was pretty cool. I don't get many readers, but that post is one of the most-read items on this site. My take was listed below an entry from Bleacher Report, but it was still an honor to have a link on the team's official blog.

Buck Showalter's logic

Tonight, the Orioles face the Angels and starter Ervin Santana. As Roch Kubatko mentioned earlier today in a post about Luke Scott (who's returning to the lineup), Felix Pie has three hits in five career at-bats against Santana. One of those hits was a triple.

Predictably, Pie's in the lineup tonight, batting eighth and playing left field. Because Scott's back to fill the DH slot, Nolan Reimold's on the bench. Reimold is having a much better season than Pie and is clearly the better player, but this is probably why he's not playing tonight:

(Career) Reimold vs. Santana: 0-2, 1 BB

(Fake Buck Showalter: "Way to not get a hit against Santana in limited at-bats, Nolan. And who cares about that walk?")

That has to be why Showalter is playing Pie instead of Reimold. He can't believe Pie is better than Reimold, right? Or maybe it's just because Pie is left-handed. Yeah, that has to play a part as well.

I've probably written something similar to this before, but whatever. There's no legitimate reason why Pie should be in over Reimold. It's not like Reimold is a star or an amazing player, so I'm getting tired of having to harp on this point over and over again: He's a competent, above-average hitter. That's more than anyone can say about Pie, who, in only 140 plate appearances this season, has racked up a -1.7 WAR. Every at-bat he's receiving is a wasted opportunity that should be given to Reimold.

Or bring Matt Angle back up from Norfolk and designate Pie for assignment. Angle may not end up being a very good player, but at least we all know right now that Pie is awful.