J.J. Hardy is a superb defensive shortstop, but he's consistently batted in the second spot the entire season despite putting up awful offensive numbers (.226/.273/.372). In his first season with the Orioles last year, Hardy batted .269/.310/.491, which isn't ideal for a No. 2 hitter because of the low on-base percentage, but it didn't hurt the O's much because he displayed a surprising amount of power. He posted a .222 ISO (isolated power, which measures a player's ability to hit for power/get extra-base hits) -- the best of his career -- yet only has a .146 ISO right now, which would be one of the lowest of his career.
So what's gone wrong? Let's explore.
Hardy's walk and strikeout numbers aren't much different. In fact, he's striking out less and walking slightly more.
2011: 5.5 BB%, 16.2 K%
2012: 5.7 BB%, 15.2 K%
His BABIP is low, though, which means he's been somewhat unlucky. He's only posted a BABIP above .300 once in his career, but this season's .240 mark is lower than his career BABIP of .274. So he's due for a few more hits to drop in, but that doesn't solely explain an OBP this low.
He's hitting more line drives this season than last (from 16.4% to 17.5%), and his ground ball/fly ball ratio is higher than last season (from 0.93 to 1.02). His home run/fly ball ratio (9.4%) is also nowhere near last seasons's (15.7%). So he's hitting the ball somewhat harder, but overall he's hitter fewer fly balls -- and even fewer of them are leaving the ballpark.
Hardy's plate discipline isn't the problem either. Not only is he swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, but he's making more contact with those pitches as well. He's swinging at about as many pitches in the zone and overall is swinging the bat slightly less, but that doesn't explain the significant drop in his numbers either.
So what's been the problem? Fastballs and right-handed pitching. I think it was Jim Palmer who either last night or the night before discussed how Hardy seems to be having trouble with outside fastballs and ones tailing away. Hardy's a pull hitter who likes to turn on inside pitches. He doesn't hit the ball to the opposite field often, and when he's down in the count he'll try to foul off pitches he can't handle until he gets something that he can. After destroying fastballs last season (per Fangraphs PITCHf/x pitch value data), Hardy's not hitting them much this season and is actually hitting some offspeed pitches slightly better.
Also, here are Hardy's splits this season (and career splits in parentheses) vs. right-handed and left-handed pitching:
vs. RHP: .215/.255/.362 (.256/.303/.413)
vs. LHP: .261/.328/.403 (.266/.345/.466)
Again, Hardy's numbers are down across the board. But his numbers against lefties this season are at least serviceable for a strong defensive shortstop. Those numbers against righties, though, are truly ugly.
It's worth remembering that last July Hardy was given a three-year, $22.25 million extension. It's nice that the O's found their short-term option at shortstop and that Hardy is so good defensively at that position, but if he's not hitting he's not helping the club nearly as much as he did in 2011. Instead of trading Hardy at the trade deadline last season when he was arguably having the best season of his career, the O's are stuck with the possibility that Hardy peaked and may only be a shell of that previous offensive force. Also, if Manny Machado stays in the majors and is on the club after spring training next season, and there's really no reason to think that he won't, then Hardy is blocking Machado's true position, or at least the position he should be playing at the big league level until he proves that he can't.
I like Hardy and he's a steady, veteran presence who has helped the O's get where they are right now, but it's looking more and more like the O's and Andy MacPhail missed a big opportunity to sell high on Hardy a year ago and add a few pieces to fill other holes in the O's farm system.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Thursday, August 16, 2012
The Orioles keep winning, which is awesome
Somehow, some way, the Orioles (64-53) keep racking up wins. After consecutive victories over the Red Sox, the O's have a chance to sweep Boston today and send them five games under .500. The O's have also won nine of their last 11 games.
It's been noted that the O's have a difficult schedule in their remaining 44 games after today. Here's how those games break down:
3 at Detroit
3 at Texas
3 vs. Toronto
4 vs. Chicago
3 at New York
3 at Toronto
4 vs. New York
3 vs. Tampa Bay
3 at Oakland
3 at Seattle
3 at Boston
3 vs. Toronto
3 vs. Boston
3 at Tampa Bay
Yikes. First of all, it's crazy that we're even talking about this. Again, somehow the O's are 11 games over .500 and are leading the wild card. No matter what happens the rest of the season, this is actually happening right now. For a team with very little hope heading into April, the run this team has been on is almost incomprehensible. But, you know, luck, run differential, and regression, etc., so let's try to stay grounded -- though it won't be easy.
Making the playoffs isn't easy, especially for an O's team that's already fighting an uphill battle in the AL East. The Red Sox and Blue Jays have had bad luck with injuries all season, but as O's fans are more than well aware of, that's part of the game. The O's have battled their share of injuries this year and have had some pretty terrible luck with them in past seasons. So it's important to remember this: No one feels sorry for you. After 15 years of futility, the O's have needed and will continue to need some good fortune for them to have a chance of actually sneaking into the playoffs.
Of their 44 remaining games, 28 are against the AL East. Plus, teams like Detroit, Texas, and Oakland are all pretty good, too. And while it's bad enough to play all of those games against good teams, the O's also have one trip to the West Coast left, which includes three games in Oakland and three in Seattle. Luckily, on that trip the O's avoid the Angels, who have a 7-2 record against the O's this season.
That remaining schedule could wear down even the best of teams, but over the course of this season, the O's have held their own against decent teams, primarily in the East. In fact, other than their struggles vs. the Angels, the only other teams they're under .500 against are the Rangers (1-3), Tigers (1-2), and Yankees (5-6) -- and there's nothing wrong with that. Overall, they're 18-13 vs. the Central division, 11-14 vs. the West, and they finished 11-7 in interleague play. But the biggest surprise is their 24-19 record in the East, fueled by an 8-3 record against the Red Sox. Sorry, Beantown.
Considering that schedule and that the O's have been playing over their heads, I'm not sure they're going to be able to ride out that storm and eventually still be in contention heading into the final days of the regular season. But this team has accomplished way more than I ever thought they would, and I certainly won't write them off. This whole winning thing has been fun, and I hope like hell it continues.
It's been noted that the O's have a difficult schedule in their remaining 44 games after today. Here's how those games break down:
3 at Detroit
3 at Texas
3 vs. Toronto
4 vs. Chicago
3 at New York
3 at Toronto
4 vs. New York
3 vs. Tampa Bay
3 at Oakland
3 at Seattle
3 at Boston
3 vs. Toronto
3 vs. Boston
3 at Tampa Bay
Yikes. First of all, it's crazy that we're even talking about this. Again, somehow the O's are 11 games over .500 and are leading the wild card. No matter what happens the rest of the season, this is actually happening right now. For a team with very little hope heading into April, the run this team has been on is almost incomprehensible. But, you know, luck, run differential, and regression, etc., so let's try to stay grounded -- though it won't be easy.
Making the playoffs isn't easy, especially for an O's team that's already fighting an uphill battle in the AL East. The Red Sox and Blue Jays have had bad luck with injuries all season, but as O's fans are more than well aware of, that's part of the game. The O's have battled their share of injuries this year and have had some pretty terrible luck with them in past seasons. So it's important to remember this: No one feels sorry for you. After 15 years of futility, the O's have needed and will continue to need some good fortune for them to have a chance of actually sneaking into the playoffs.
Of their 44 remaining games, 28 are against the AL East. Plus, teams like Detroit, Texas, and Oakland are all pretty good, too. And while it's bad enough to play all of those games against good teams, the O's also have one trip to the West Coast left, which includes three games in Oakland and three in Seattle. Luckily, on that trip the O's avoid the Angels, who have a 7-2 record against the O's this season.
That remaining schedule could wear down even the best of teams, but over the course of this season, the O's have held their own against decent teams, primarily in the East. In fact, other than their struggles vs. the Angels, the only other teams they're under .500 against are the Rangers (1-3), Tigers (1-2), and Yankees (5-6) -- and there's nothing wrong with that. Overall, they're 18-13 vs. the Central division, 11-14 vs. the West, and they finished 11-7 in interleague play. But the biggest surprise is their 24-19 record in the East, fueled by an 8-3 record against the Red Sox. Sorry, Beantown.
Considering that schedule and that the O's have been playing over their heads, I'm not sure they're going to be able to ride out that storm and eventually still be in contention heading into the final days of the regular season. But this team has accomplished way more than I ever thought they would, and I certainly won't write them off. This whole winning thing has been fun, and I hope like hell it continues.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
O's surprisingly promote Manny Machado to Baltimore
After the Orioles completed their three-game sweep of the Seattle Mariners with a 9-2 win last night, I went to bed. So I missed the flood of stories around midnight saying the O's were calling up Manny Machado from Bowie to play third base for the major league club. Machado, 20, is considered the O's second-best prospect behind Dylan Bundy and is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.
Instead of making a major trade at the deadline, promoting Machado is arguably the biggest move the O's could have made (outside of promoting Bundy straight to Baltimore instead of to Bowie), and it's probably something that Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette have discussed before. Machado, who's hitting .266/.350/.431 at Bowie (and was named Eastern League Player of the Week just a couple days ago), has almost exclusively played shortstop in his time in the minors, but it wouldn't make much sense to move J.J. Hardy from the position, because even though he's not hitting all that well, he's still playing outstanding defense at the position. There's no guarantee that Machado would do the same, and it's unknown how long he'll be with the team. Still, the O's are promoting Machado for a reason: They think he's good enough right now, and at 60-51, they want him to help them win more games.
Buck Showalter echoed that sentiment in his comments after the game:
So, will Machado help the team? If he plays every day, which he should if he's on the big league club, he'll be replacing the third base platoon of Wilson Betemit and Robert Andino. Betemit will likely still DH some and get occasional starts in the field to keep his bat in the lineup against right-handed pitching, but Andino will probably be relegated to more of a utility role since Omar Quintanilla has taken over the regular second base duties. Overall, Andino is hitting .227/.292/.318 and Betemit is batting .263/.323/.427, so neither guy is really a superior option offensively. Machado probably won't be much better right away -- and it may be unfair to expect that he will be -- but he may be able to be decent defensively while hitting better than Andino -- sort of a combination of the two's skills. Still, Machado has never played much third base, and now he'll be doing so at the highest level. (Apparently Machado took "a lot of ground balls at third" during his time in Bowie, according to manager Gary Kendall. So that's good, I guess.)
I'm not sure if Machado is ready or that it's a smart move to bring him up right now. I guess we'll find out over the next few weeks and months. As with most player promotions, fan opinions are mixed. But there's one thing this move definitely is: bold. It's an extremely bold move. I'm sure the team's current record played a part in the decision, but then again, if the O's were 20 games out of first place, wouldn't it almost make just as much sense to play Machado every day in the majors if they thought he was ready? Possibly, I guess.
But here's the cool part of all of this: Now we get to watch Machado play on a team that's currently tied for the lead in the wild card standings. Regardless of how good this team actually is or if they can stick around through late August into September, that's pretty exciting.
Instead of making a major trade at the deadline, promoting Machado is arguably the biggest move the O's could have made (outside of promoting Bundy straight to Baltimore instead of to Bowie), and it's probably something that Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette have discussed before. Machado, who's hitting .266/.350/.431 at Bowie (and was named Eastern League Player of the Week just a couple days ago), has almost exclusively played shortstop in his time in the minors, but it wouldn't make much sense to move J.J. Hardy from the position, because even though he's not hitting all that well, he's still playing outstanding defense at the position. There's no guarantee that Machado would do the same, and it's unknown how long he'll be with the team. Still, the O's are promoting Machado for a reason: They think he's good enough right now, and at 60-51, they want him to help them win more games.
Buck Showalter echoed that sentiment in his comments after the game:
"If we can do something that makes us 2 inches better to have a chance to win the last 49 games, we’re going to do it." -Showalter postgame
— Brittany Ghiroli (@Britt_Ghiroli) August 9, 2012
So, will Machado help the team? If he plays every day, which he should if he's on the big league club, he'll be replacing the third base platoon of Wilson Betemit and Robert Andino. Betemit will likely still DH some and get occasional starts in the field to keep his bat in the lineup against right-handed pitching, but Andino will probably be relegated to more of a utility role since Omar Quintanilla has taken over the regular second base duties. Overall, Andino is hitting .227/.292/.318 and Betemit is batting .263/.323/.427, so neither guy is really a superior option offensively. Machado probably won't be much better right away -- and it may be unfair to expect that he will be -- but he may be able to be decent defensively while hitting better than Andino -- sort of a combination of the two's skills. Still, Machado has never played much third base, and now he'll be doing so at the highest level. (Apparently Machado took "a lot of ground balls at third" during his time in Bowie, according to manager Gary Kendall. So that's good, I guess.)
I'm not sure if Machado is ready or that it's a smart move to bring him up right now. I guess we'll find out over the next few weeks and months. As with most player promotions, fan opinions are mixed. But there's one thing this move definitely is: bold. It's an extremely bold move. I'm sure the team's current record played a part in the decision, but then again, if the O's were 20 games out of first place, wouldn't it almost make just as much sense to play Machado every day in the majors if they thought he was ready? Possibly, I guess.
But here's the cool part of all of this: Now we get to watch Machado play on a team that's currently tied for the lead in the wild card standings. Regardless of how good this team actually is or if they can stick around through late August into September, that's pretty exciting.
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
The Orioles and winning
Today, August 7, 2012, the Orioles have a 58-51 record. Here are O's team records on this date the past 10 years:
2011: 44-67
2010: 36-74
2009: 46-63
2008: 55-59
2007: 52-59
2006: 50-63
2005: 53-58
2004: 51-57
2003: 54-58
2002: 54-57
That's right, not a single winning record on this (arbitrary) date in the past decade. What does it mean? Not a whole lot really, especially since that run differential (now -55) keeps sticking out, tempering even the most optimistic fans.
But the O's have far exceeded expectations, and winning is so, so much better than losing. Whether the O's keep this up, though unlikely, is anyone's guess, but even the worst run differential can't take away those 58 wins.
2011: 44-67
2010: 36-74
2009: 46-63
2008: 55-59
2007: 52-59
2006: 50-63
2005: 53-58
2004: 51-57
2003: 54-58
2002: 54-57
That's right, not a single winning record on this (arbitrary) date in the past decade. What does it mean? Not a whole lot really, especially since that run differential (now -55) keeps sticking out, tempering even the most optimistic fans.
But the O's have far exceeded expectations, and winning is so, so much better than losing. Whether the O's keep this up, though unlikely, is anyone's guess, but even the worst run differential can't take away those 58 wins.
Sunday, August 5, 2012
Appreciating Wei-Yin Chen
Orioles fans didn't know what to expect when the team signed Taiwanese starter Wei-Yin Chen to a three-year, $11.3 million contract this past offseason. But Chen, now 27, has been better than expected and currently has a pitching line of 3.46/4.05/4.32 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) after pitching seven scoreless innings and getting the win against the Rays in Tampa Bay last night. He leads all rookies in innings pitched (135.1) and is tied for second in AL rookie pitcher wins above replacement (2.1 fWAR) behind Yu Darvish (2.4).
Chen's FIP and xFIP indicate that he's probably due for some regression, mostly because he's not a ground ball pitcher and he's gotten a little lucky BABIP-wise (.260), plus he doesn't have completely overpowering stuff (19.3 K%, 7.8 BB%). But even if he's not quite this good, he's still been a very good signing, particularly for an O's team that's struggled to find any kind of starting pitching consistency. And he's also doing this while pitching in arguably the best division in baseball, the AL East -- no small task.
When Jason Hammel went down in mid-July (knee surgery), the O's needed Chen to step his game up. He's done just that: Since July 14, Chen has five consecutive outings of pitching at least 5.2 innings and allowing three runs or fewer. In the process, he's lowered his ERA from 3.93 to where it is now, 3.46.
There's no guarantee that Chen continues to pitch this well or that he's this effective in his future years in Baltimore. This is his first year in the majors, and teams very well may adjust to Chen the more they face him. But the O's rarely have cost-controlled, effective starting pitchers under contract period, let alone for multiple years, and with Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Zach Britton currently unable to live up to their expectations, Chen's effectiveness has been crucial for a 56-51 O's team.
By the way, if Chen's contract wasn't looking like enough of a bargain, his three-year deal also includes a club option for 2015 at $4.75 million. So, yeah, that'll probably work out.
Stats via FanGraphs. Salary info via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Chen's FIP and xFIP indicate that he's probably due for some regression, mostly because he's not a ground ball pitcher and he's gotten a little lucky BABIP-wise (.260), plus he doesn't have completely overpowering stuff (19.3 K%, 7.8 BB%). But even if he's not quite this good, he's still been a very good signing, particularly for an O's team that's struggled to find any kind of starting pitching consistency. And he's also doing this while pitching in arguably the best division in baseball, the AL East -- no small task.
When Jason Hammel went down in mid-July (knee surgery), the O's needed Chen to step his game up. He's done just that: Since July 14, Chen has five consecutive outings of pitching at least 5.2 innings and allowing three runs or fewer. In the process, he's lowered his ERA from 3.93 to where it is now, 3.46.
There's no guarantee that Chen continues to pitch this well or that he's this effective in his future years in Baltimore. This is his first year in the majors, and teams very well may adjust to Chen the more they face him. But the O's rarely have cost-controlled, effective starting pitchers under contract period, let alone for multiple years, and with Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Zach Britton currently unable to live up to their expectations, Chen's effectiveness has been crucial for a 56-51 O's team.
By the way, if Chen's contract wasn't looking like enough of a bargain, his three-year deal also includes a club option for 2015 at $4.75 million. So, yeah, that'll probably work out.
Stats via FanGraphs. Salary info via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Some reasons why the Orioles should not be buyers
The non-waiver trade deadline is less than a week away (next Tuesday, July 31, at 4 p.m., to be exact), and many Orioles fans want the team to make a major move or two to bolster the team for a potential playoff push. But even though I've enjoyed the pleasant surprise of this team actually winning games and hanging around, I've never completely bought in. At 51-47, they're still just a couple games back for that second wild card spot, but they've also lost three in a row and have had lots of trouble scoring runs.
After last night's 10-1 shellacking at the hands of David Price and the Rays, the O's now own a run differential of -57, which is the second-worst mark in the American League. A team's record is more important, and a team can sometimes outplay that run differential, but more often than not, run differential is an indicator of things to come. Here are other issues with this team:
- Matt Wieters (.240/.319/.406) and J.J. Hardy (.221/.264/.376) are not hitting that well.
- Jim Thome, who's 41, is probably the team's third-best hitter behind Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.
- The O's left field rotation consists of Chris Davis, Endy Chavez, and Steve Tolleson.
- Their corner infield defense (Wilson Betemit at third, Mark Reynolds at first) is a major concern and certainly would not make Tom Emanski very happy.
- With Robert Andino out for a few more weeks and Brian Roberts possibly needing surgery, the O's current options at second base are Ryan Flaherty and Omar Quintanilla.
- As a team, the O's have an on-base percentage of .302, second worst in the AL (Mariners, .291).
- Per FanGraphs' UZR, the O's are the worst fielding team in the AL.
- Jason Hammel, the team's best starter this season, had surgery on his right knee earlier this month and may not be ready to return for a few more weeks.
- Miguel Gonzalez and Tommy Hunter are in the rotation right now, which may not continue to work (see: Gonzalez's really bad start last night). Zach Britton and Chris Tillman are also far from trusted starters.
There's more, but you get the point. And obviously, there are positives, too, or else this team still wouldn't have a winning record in late July. But that doesn't mean they should be buyers and willing to offer up younger players in exchange for rentals in a false hope of making the playoffs, especially when the farm system, outside of Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, is so shallow. Even if the O's can't truly be sellers because they're still technically competing, their long-term goal should still be to add younger talent for seasons beyond this one so that when Machado and Bundy are in Baltimore, the O's are a more well-rounded team and will be better overall.
However, if the O's are willing to spend some money right now in lieu of offering up any decent prospects, they may be able to bring a player or two aboard whose deals expire at the end of this year. Someone like Shane Victorino, to play left field, is one example, though the Phillies are seeking "bullpen help," which is pretty vague. Kevin Gregg qualifies as bullpen help, I guess.
I hope the O's keep winning; it really is fun to watch. But I'm just hoping Dan Duquette and co. don't do anything foolish to risk this team's chances of being good next year or after. It doesn't sound like they will, thankfully, but crazy things are possible. This is Birdland, after all.
After last night's 10-1 shellacking at the hands of David Price and the Rays, the O's now own a run differential of -57, which is the second-worst mark in the American League. A team's record is more important, and a team can sometimes outplay that run differential, but more often than not, run differential is an indicator of things to come. Here are other issues with this team:
- Matt Wieters (.240/.319/.406) and J.J. Hardy (.221/.264/.376) are not hitting that well.
- Jim Thome, who's 41, is probably the team's third-best hitter behind Adam Jones and Nick Markakis.
- The O's left field rotation consists of Chris Davis, Endy Chavez, and Steve Tolleson.
- Their corner infield defense (Wilson Betemit at third, Mark Reynolds at first) is a major concern and certainly would not make Tom Emanski very happy.
- With Robert Andino out for a few more weeks and Brian Roberts possibly needing surgery, the O's current options at second base are Ryan Flaherty and Omar Quintanilla.
- As a team, the O's have an on-base percentage of .302, second worst in the AL (Mariners, .291).
- Per FanGraphs' UZR, the O's are the worst fielding team in the AL.
- Jason Hammel, the team's best starter this season, had surgery on his right knee earlier this month and may not be ready to return for a few more weeks.
- Miguel Gonzalez and Tommy Hunter are in the rotation right now, which may not continue to work (see: Gonzalez's really bad start last night). Zach Britton and Chris Tillman are also far from trusted starters.
There's more, but you get the point. And obviously, there are positives, too, or else this team still wouldn't have a winning record in late July. But that doesn't mean they should be buyers and willing to offer up younger players in exchange for rentals in a false hope of making the playoffs, especially when the farm system, outside of Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, is so shallow. Even if the O's can't truly be sellers because they're still technically competing, their long-term goal should still be to add younger talent for seasons beyond this one so that when Machado and Bundy are in Baltimore, the O's are a more well-rounded team and will be better overall.
However, if the O's are willing to spend some money right now in lieu of offering up any decent prospects, they may be able to bring a player or two aboard whose deals expire at the end of this year. Someone like Shane Victorino, to play left field, is one example, though the Phillies are seeking "bullpen help," which is pretty vague. Kevin Gregg qualifies as bullpen help, I guess.
I hope the O's keep winning; it really is fun to watch. But I'm just hoping Dan Duquette and co. don't do anything foolish to risk this team's chances of being good next year or after. It doesn't sound like they will, thankfully, but crazy things are possible. This is Birdland, after all.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Worried about the Orioles in the second half
I didn't expect the Orioles to win many games this season. In fact, I thought they were going to lose at least 100 and be one of the worst overall teams. Instead, the O's have gotten some very strong first-half performances, and they've put together a 45-40 record at the all-star break.
Unfortunately, a division like the AL East in unrelenting, meaning there are still plenty of games left against the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, who all have records of at least .500 or better. Also, with a -36 run differential -- the third-worst mark in the American League -- the O's have more wins than they probably should have, meaning they've been lucky. There's no guarantee that luck continues in their 77 remaining games.
Though his numbers have come down somewhat over the last few weeks, Adam Jones is hitting .289/.330/.534, which would be the best offensive season of his career if he continues to hit for that much power. The O's also locked Jones up with a long-term deal of six years, $85.5 million, which means he'll be in Baltimore through 2018 unless he's traded. Some were worried about owner Peter Angelos's recent unwillingness to spend money, but Jones's contract is the largest contract handed out in O's history. The deal was mostly lauded by fans and baseball analysts alike.
Besides Jones, Matt Wieters is having a nice year, hitting .247/.327/.431 and offering his typically strong defense behind the plate. Many expect better offensive numbers from Wieters, though it's fair to point to his .267 BABIP and note that he's been somewhat unlucky and may be due for a few more hits to drop in.
After Jones and Wieters, though, there isn't much to get excited about. J.J. Hardy is playing solid defense at shortstop, but he's struggling mightily at the plate, posting an on-base percentage of .262. I'm not sure that's being discussed enough. And he's doing that while hitting second in the lineup, which is far from ideal. Even more so than Wieters, Hardy has been unlucky (.233 BABIP), but the O's are going to need much more production from him if they're going to continue to win games. Nick Markakis was recently activated from the disabled list, and he should help the lineup. Still, he was hitting .256/.333/.452 in the first half, which is decent but certainly not great. And obviously the team's other regular hitters -- Wilson Betemit, Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, Jim Thome, Robert Andino, etc. -- don't strike that much fear into opposing pitchers. It also doesn't help that Nolan Reimold's lost for the season, and Brian Roberts might be as well.
Maybe that's why Dan Duquette has said that the O's need "to address the on-base percentage at the top of [the] lineup." There's no question that he's right. But it's important to note that Duquette is also exploring the possibility of dealing for another starting pitcher and has already traded two lower-level prospects for Thome. Since the O's most likely are not as good as their record indicates, trading any decent-to-great prospects away to win right now might not be a very good idea. Obviously no O's fans want to see the team trade Dylan Bundy or Manny Machado away, though the odds of that happening are slim to none. But would it even make sense to trade someone like Jake Arrieta or Xavier Avery for a rental starter or outfielder? I guess that simply depends on who that player would be, how he performs in Baltimore, and whether the O's keep winning games. Duquette is in a difficult position, particularly since the O's haven't finished with a winning record since 1997. They haven't even won more than 70 games since 2005. And if the O's do somehow finish with a winning record, it'll be a minor miracle since most people figured they'd be absolutely horrible.
And, as noted above, since the hitting isn't likely to improve all that much, it's going to come down to pitching -- something to also be concerned about. According to FanGraphs' wins above replacement numbers, the three best pitchers for the O's have been Jason Hammel (2.6), Jake Arrieta (1.6), and Wei-Yin Chen (1.1). Arrieta's inclusion is surprising, but his peripheral stats suggest he's been better than his 6.13 ERA indicates. (For more on Arrieta and not giving up on him yet, see this FanGraphs article from yesterday.) But besides Hammel and Chen, there isn't much to get excited about -- and there's also no guarantee that Hammel and Chen continue to pitch this well. Can a collection of starters, including Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Miguel Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, Tommy Hunter, and maybe Zach Britton or someone else, pitch well enough to get the job done? The depth of that list seems deeper than in seasons past, but if they aren't effective, it doesn't matter that much.
The bullpen also seems like it's due to regress a little bit, even with its AL-leading ERA of 2.75. Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day, Troy Patton, Jim Johnson, and Luis Ayala have all been very good. Collectively, they don't walk many batters (2.78 BB/9), but they don't strike out a ton either (7.2 K/9). They also have the third-highest left-on base percentage (80.3%) in the majors. Still, they get a ton of ground balls (49%) and don't give up many home runs (0.87 HR/9), which are both very good things. So even if the bullpen isn't quite as good, it should still be the best part of the team in the second half.
Team fWAR ranks:
Batting: 5.7 (last)
Starters: 5.8 (21st)
Relievers: 2.6 (9th)
All pitching: 8.4 (17th)
Fielding: -13.1 UZR (24th)
So, yeah, not overly positive numbers. Some O's fans are optimistic -- and good, I'm glad they are, because I like that. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about how this team will finish the season. They have a few key weaknesses, and a couple of mid-season trades won't rectify that.
Unfortunately, a division like the AL East in unrelenting, meaning there are still plenty of games left against the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, who all have records of at least .500 or better. Also, with a -36 run differential -- the third-worst mark in the American League -- the O's have more wins than they probably should have, meaning they've been lucky. There's no guarantee that luck continues in their 77 remaining games.
Though his numbers have come down somewhat over the last few weeks, Adam Jones is hitting .289/.330/.534, which would be the best offensive season of his career if he continues to hit for that much power. The O's also locked Jones up with a long-term deal of six years, $85.5 million, which means he'll be in Baltimore through 2018 unless he's traded. Some were worried about owner Peter Angelos's recent unwillingness to spend money, but Jones's contract is the largest contract handed out in O's history. The deal was mostly lauded by fans and baseball analysts alike.
Besides Jones, Matt Wieters is having a nice year, hitting .247/.327/.431 and offering his typically strong defense behind the plate. Many expect better offensive numbers from Wieters, though it's fair to point to his .267 BABIP and note that he's been somewhat unlucky and may be due for a few more hits to drop in.
After Jones and Wieters, though, there isn't much to get excited about. J.J. Hardy is playing solid defense at shortstop, but he's struggling mightily at the plate, posting an on-base percentage of .262. I'm not sure that's being discussed enough. And he's doing that while hitting second in the lineup, which is far from ideal. Even more so than Wieters, Hardy has been unlucky (.233 BABIP), but the O's are going to need much more production from him if they're going to continue to win games. Nick Markakis was recently activated from the disabled list, and he should help the lineup. Still, he was hitting .256/.333/.452 in the first half, which is decent but certainly not great. And obviously the team's other regular hitters -- Wilson Betemit, Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, Jim Thome, Robert Andino, etc. -- don't strike that much fear into opposing pitchers. It also doesn't help that Nolan Reimold's lost for the season, and Brian Roberts might be as well.
Maybe that's why Dan Duquette has said that the O's need "to address the on-base percentage at the top of [the] lineup." There's no question that he's right. But it's important to note that Duquette is also exploring the possibility of dealing for another starting pitcher and has already traded two lower-level prospects for Thome. Since the O's most likely are not as good as their record indicates, trading any decent-to-great prospects away to win right now might not be a very good idea. Obviously no O's fans want to see the team trade Dylan Bundy or Manny Machado away, though the odds of that happening are slim to none. But would it even make sense to trade someone like Jake Arrieta or Xavier Avery for a rental starter or outfielder? I guess that simply depends on who that player would be, how he performs in Baltimore, and whether the O's keep winning games. Duquette is in a difficult position, particularly since the O's haven't finished with a winning record since 1997. They haven't even won more than 70 games since 2005. And if the O's do somehow finish with a winning record, it'll be a minor miracle since most people figured they'd be absolutely horrible.
And, as noted above, since the hitting isn't likely to improve all that much, it's going to come down to pitching -- something to also be concerned about. According to FanGraphs' wins above replacement numbers, the three best pitchers for the O's have been Jason Hammel (2.6), Jake Arrieta (1.6), and Wei-Yin Chen (1.1). Arrieta's inclusion is surprising, but his peripheral stats suggest he's been better than his 6.13 ERA indicates. (For more on Arrieta and not giving up on him yet, see this FanGraphs article from yesterday.) But besides Hammel and Chen, there isn't much to get excited about -- and there's also no guarantee that Hammel and Chen continue to pitch this well. Can a collection of starters, including Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Miguel Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, Tommy Hunter, and maybe Zach Britton or someone else, pitch well enough to get the job done? The depth of that list seems deeper than in seasons past, but if they aren't effective, it doesn't matter that much.
The bullpen also seems like it's due to regress a little bit, even with its AL-leading ERA of 2.75. Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day, Troy Patton, Jim Johnson, and Luis Ayala have all been very good. Collectively, they don't walk many batters (2.78 BB/9), but they don't strike out a ton either (7.2 K/9). They also have the third-highest left-on base percentage (80.3%) in the majors. Still, they get a ton of ground balls (49%) and don't give up many home runs (0.87 HR/9), which are both very good things. So even if the bullpen isn't quite as good, it should still be the best part of the team in the second half.
Team fWAR ranks:
Batting: 5.7 (last)
Starters: 5.8 (21st)
Relievers: 2.6 (9th)
All pitching: 8.4 (17th)
Fielding: -13.1 UZR (24th)
So, yeah, not overly positive numbers. Some O's fans are optimistic -- and good, I'm glad they are, because I like that. But I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about how this team will finish the season. They have a few key weaknesses, and a couple of mid-season trades won't rectify that.
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Latest trade is more of the same from Grunfeld
Oh, hey, the Wizards made a trade today, shipping Rashard Lewis and his huge, expiring contract, along with the 46th overall pick, to the Hornets in exchange for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza. Okafor and Ariza both have two years remaining on their contracts, meaning the Wizards think enough of both guys to want them around and play significant minutes. Okafor is scheduled to make $13.5 million next season and $14.5 million the season after, while Ariza will make $7.3 million and $7.7 million in the same time frame.
I'm not going to go through all of the other salary information and potential roster ramifications -- Mike Prada of Bullets Forever already did a fantastic job of that here -- but the trade boils down to Ernie Grunfeld choosing Okafor and Ariza over other free agents the team could have rolled with instead, either this upcoming year or next. And, even though my initial reaction to the trade was an indifferent one, I now believe that it's a puzzling decision, at best.
If you look at the trade simply, then the deal doesn't look so bad for Washington. Lewis was going to be paid his money and sent packing regardless of where he was traded, so getting two players for nothing is always nice. Also, instead of paying Lewis to walk away next season and getting nothing in return, that money is being used to pay part of Ariza's and Okafor's salaries. Unfortunately, the Wizards sacrificed a lot of cap flexibility, particularly in 2013.
And there's another small problem: Neither player is a major upgrade or adds much to the team. First, let's look at Ariza. Athletic and 6'8, he's a versatile defensive player, which the Wizards don't have a whole lot of on the perimeter. Chris Singleton was supposed to be a lockdown perimeter defender, and he still may develop into one, but he struggled mightily to stick with quicker, more accomplished scorers last season. That's not unusual -- he was a rookie, after all -- but he has a lot of work to do. Ariza is an upgrade in that department. But the skill the Wizards arguably need the most is shooting, which is not one of Ariza's strong suits. He hasn't made more than 46 percent of his shots since 2008-2009, and he's just a 31.7 percent three-point shooter for his career. He's a better scorer than Singleton, but not overly so. Here's Ariza's career shooting stats compared to Singleton's last season (keep in mind, there's a much larger sample for Ariza, who's been in the league since 2004):
Ariza: 43.1 FG% / 31.7 3P% / 67.4 FT%
Singleton: 37.2 FG% / 34.7 3P% / 68.2 FT%
Again, Ariza is easily the better all-around player than Singleton, and he could end up putting up improved numbers with John Wall running the show and creating some easy buckets for him. But Singleton still has time to get better and is still much cheaper since he's on his rookie deal. Singleton will still get minutes, but not as much with the veteran blocking him from starting at small forward. Hopefully Singleton is still able to get the necessary minutes to improve his game.
On to the addition of Okafor, which seems superfluous for a Wizards frontcourt that already includes Nene, Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Booker, and Jan Vesely. At 6'10, 252 pounds, Okafor is similar in size to the 6'11, 250 pound Nene, and he'll help with the team's rebounding and ability to protect the rim. But can they both share the court at the same time? And how are the Wizards going to get playing time for all of Seraphin, Booker, and Vesely? Those three, especially Seraphin, at times showed flashes of improved play, so it seems a bit odd to bring in another guy who's going to play a bunch of minutes. It's possible that this trade is just the first of one or two more that round out the roster a bit, but right now there are huge question marks. Then again, Nene and Okafor have both dealt with nagging injuries in their careers, so it wouldn't be a bad thing to have guys ready behind them if/when they go down. But it was also much easier to defend the Nene trade last season since he's the better player and also still allowed the Wizards to play the youngsters beside him. With Okafor in Washington, there aren't as many minutes to go around.
So the Wizards took cap space they were going to have after next season and filled it with two players who don't make the team that much better but who are names that fans have probably heard of. And the two players aren't even great fits for the team. Yes, that seems like a Grunfeld move: wasting cap space for no apparent reason while fitting square pegs into round holes.
Many have speculated that with Ariza now in Washington, the Wizards, with the third pick, will target a shooting guard. Picking Brad Beal or Harrison Barnes, who are both better shooters than nearly every current Wizard, would make a lot of sense even if the Wizards didn't already have Ariza. But shouldn't the Wizards take whichever player they wanted most in the draft anyway? The belief that because Ariza is here that Grunfeld won't take the top player available -- probably a guard (Beal, Barnes) or even another small forward (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) -- is questionable. And if that is indeed true, Grunfeld should be fired on the spot. Don't be fooled: Hitting on the No. 3 pick is way more important than just about any trade Grunfeld can make this offseason, and adding another talented player to this team is vital.
But Grunfeld really shouldn't still be running the show in Washington, but you knew that already. Fans who were against Ted Leonsis and the Wizards bringing back Grunfeld as the team's general manager were afraid of moves like this. It's looking like they were right.
I'm not going to go through all of the other salary information and potential roster ramifications -- Mike Prada of Bullets Forever already did a fantastic job of that here -- but the trade boils down to Ernie Grunfeld choosing Okafor and Ariza over other free agents the team could have rolled with instead, either this upcoming year or next. And, even though my initial reaction to the trade was an indifferent one, I now believe that it's a puzzling decision, at best.
If you look at the trade simply, then the deal doesn't look so bad for Washington. Lewis was going to be paid his money and sent packing regardless of where he was traded, so getting two players for nothing is always nice. Also, instead of paying Lewis to walk away next season and getting nothing in return, that money is being used to pay part of Ariza's and Okafor's salaries. Unfortunately, the Wizards sacrificed a lot of cap flexibility, particularly in 2013.
And there's another small problem: Neither player is a major upgrade or adds much to the team. First, let's look at Ariza. Athletic and 6'8, he's a versatile defensive player, which the Wizards don't have a whole lot of on the perimeter. Chris Singleton was supposed to be a lockdown perimeter defender, and he still may develop into one, but he struggled mightily to stick with quicker, more accomplished scorers last season. That's not unusual -- he was a rookie, after all -- but he has a lot of work to do. Ariza is an upgrade in that department. But the skill the Wizards arguably need the most is shooting, which is not one of Ariza's strong suits. He hasn't made more than 46 percent of his shots since 2008-2009, and he's just a 31.7 percent three-point shooter for his career. He's a better scorer than Singleton, but not overly so. Here's Ariza's career shooting stats compared to Singleton's last season (keep in mind, there's a much larger sample for Ariza, who's been in the league since 2004):
Ariza: 43.1 FG% / 31.7 3P% / 67.4 FT%
Singleton: 37.2 FG% / 34.7 3P% / 68.2 FT%
Again, Ariza is easily the better all-around player than Singleton, and he could end up putting up improved numbers with John Wall running the show and creating some easy buckets for him. But Singleton still has time to get better and is still much cheaper since he's on his rookie deal. Singleton will still get minutes, but not as much with the veteran blocking him from starting at small forward. Hopefully Singleton is still able to get the necessary minutes to improve his game.
On to the addition of Okafor, which seems superfluous for a Wizards frontcourt that already includes Nene, Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Booker, and Jan Vesely. At 6'10, 252 pounds, Okafor is similar in size to the 6'11, 250 pound Nene, and he'll help with the team's rebounding and ability to protect the rim. But can they both share the court at the same time? And how are the Wizards going to get playing time for all of Seraphin, Booker, and Vesely? Those three, especially Seraphin, at times showed flashes of improved play, so it seems a bit odd to bring in another guy who's going to play a bunch of minutes. It's possible that this trade is just the first of one or two more that round out the roster a bit, but right now there are huge question marks. Then again, Nene and Okafor have both dealt with nagging injuries in their careers, so it wouldn't be a bad thing to have guys ready behind them if/when they go down. But it was also much easier to defend the Nene trade last season since he's the better player and also still allowed the Wizards to play the youngsters beside him. With Okafor in Washington, there aren't as many minutes to go around.
So the Wizards took cap space they were going to have after next season and filled it with two players who don't make the team that much better but who are names that fans have probably heard of. And the two players aren't even great fits for the team. Yes, that seems like a Grunfeld move: wasting cap space for no apparent reason while fitting square pegs into round holes.
Many have speculated that with Ariza now in Washington, the Wizards, with the third pick, will target a shooting guard. Picking Brad Beal or Harrison Barnes, who are both better shooters than nearly every current Wizard, would make a lot of sense even if the Wizards didn't already have Ariza. But shouldn't the Wizards take whichever player they wanted most in the draft anyway? The belief that because Ariza is here that Grunfeld won't take the top player available -- probably a guard (Beal, Barnes) or even another small forward (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) -- is questionable. And if that is indeed true, Grunfeld should be fired on the spot. Don't be fooled: Hitting on the No. 3 pick is way more important than just about any trade Grunfeld can make this offseason, and adding another talented player to this team is vital.
But Grunfeld really shouldn't still be running the show in Washington, but you knew that already. Fans who were against Ted Leonsis and the Wizards bringing back Grunfeld as the team's general manager were afraid of moves like this. It's looking like they were right.
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