Wow, what a great way to begin the NFL playoffs. First the Seahawks shocked the Saints, 41-36, in a high-scoring, exciting game, and then the Jets survived a last-minute field goal by Adam Vinatieri and won on a last-second field goal of their own (by Nick Folk) to get a 17-16 win over the Colts. Today's games probably can't top those two, but they should still be entertaining.
I sided with the Saints and Jets, so I went 1-1 with my first two playoff picks. Here are my next two (which won't be as in-depth).
CHIEFS (+3.5) over Ravens
Did you know that the Chiefs (10-6) are 7-1 at home this season? They only beat one team above .500 (the 9-7 Chargers), but that's rather impressive. Still, they didn't face a lot of great teams this season; it's not a knock on them, it's just a fact. The 12-4 Ravens, on the other hand, played a much tougher schedule that included games against the Jets, Patriots, Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers, and Steelers (twice). They seem like the much more battle-tested team, but they'll still have their hands full with the resurgent Chiefs, especially in Kansas City.
On offense, the two teams are pretty similar: The Chiefs score 22.9 points per game, and the Ravens score 22.3 points per game. Defensively, the Ravens are better, allowing 16.9 points per game, while the Chiefs give up 20.4 points per game.
Matchup to watch: Chiefs rushing attack vs. Ravens rush defense. The Chiefs rush for an NFL-best 164.2 yards per game; the fifth-ranked Ravens rush defense allows 93.9 yards per game. Something has to give.
It's worth noting that Joe Flacco (93.6) and Matt Cassel (93.0) were ranked Nos. 7 and 8, respectively, in quarterback rating this season. Cassel had two more touchdowns and three fewer interceptions, but Flacco threw for more yards (3,622-3,116).
I think the Ravens have a great shot at winning this game; they are favored, after all. But the Chiefs do have the advantage of being home, which actually means something at Arrowhead Stadium. I think the Ravens will win, but it'll be a close game. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see this game turn out to be like the Jets-Colts game.
EAGLES (-3) over Packers
Aaron Rodgers is an outstanding quarterback. This season, he had the third-best quarterback rating (101.2), which was just behind Tom Brady and Philip Rivers. If given time, he has the ability to pick apart just about any defense. Unfortunately, similar to Peyton Manning, his team's offense rests mostly on his arm. The Packers just are not very good at running the ball -- they average just over 100 yards per game on the ground. Although the Eagles aren't that great at stopping the run (110.4 yards per game -- 15th best), they should be able to focus on Rodgers instead of being forced to keep a ton of defenders in the box.
The Eagles do scare me a bit, though. After their enormous come-from-behind victory over the Giants in Week 15, they fell flat and lost to the Vikings in Week 16 before resting some players and basically conceding defeat to the Cowboys in the season's final week. Did they pack things up a little early to gear up for the playoffs? Will some of that rust prove costly against the Packers?
I don't think so. The Packers defense is solid, allowing only 15 points per game, but with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles can put plenty of points on the board against any defense. The real key, to me, is going to be Rodgers against the Eagles defense. He's going to be under pressure, and just a few mistakes could prove costly.
The lack of a run game will hurt the Packers dearly, and the Eagles will win this game by at least a touchdown.
Regular season: 114-136-6
Playoffs: 1-1
Overall: 115-137-6
Showing posts with label playoff picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoff picks. Show all posts
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Saturday, January 8, 2011
NFL playoff picks: Wild-card round (Saturday)
Just a terrible job during the regular season picking games. So much for the moral victory of getting back to .500. But it's playoff time now, which means it's time to focus -- or something like that.
Saints (-11) over SEAHAWKS
The Saints (11-5) recently placed Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory on injured reserve, leaving them one injury away (to the already injury-prone Reggie Bush) from giving the bulk of their carries to Julius Jones. Safety Malcom Jenkins and tight end Jimmy Graham, who were both injured last week against the Buccaneers, are also expected to miss the game. And yet, despite the Saints' injuries, I have absolutely no confidence in the Seahawks.
You probably already know that the Seahawks recently became the first under-.500 team (at 7-9) to make the playoffs. They were also outscored by 97 points this season and were blown out in each of their nine losses. In fact, their smallest margin of defeat in those nine losses was 15 points, which, interestingly enough, came against the Saints (at New Orleans) in Week 11.
The main two reasons to possibly side with the Seahawks are 1) the Saints' injuries, mentioned above, and 2) that Seattle can be a difficult place to play. The Seahawks finished with a 2-6 record on the road but had a 5-3 home record. So who did they beat at home? The 49ers (6-10), Chargers (9-7), Cardinals (5-11), Panthers (2-14), and Rams (7-9). And who beat them? The Giants (10-6), Chiefs (10-6), and Falcons (13-3). So besides that Chargers win, the Seahawks beat a bunch of bad-to-mediocre teams at home and lost to the good teams. So much for that enormous home-field advantage.
Really, the only thing holding the Saints back in this game will be themselves. And despite the injuries, they should still roll.
Jets (+3) over COLTS
The Colts (10-6) closed out the regular season by winning four straight games, and yet none of those games came over a team above .500. The Jets (11-5), meanwhile, ended the season on a bit of a roller coaster, winning four straight from Week 9 to Week 12, losing two ugly games to the Patriots and Dolphins, somehow beating the Steelers on the road, losing a shootout in Chicago to the Bears, and then blowing out the Bills at home.
So how do these two teams stack up?
Offense: The Colts have the fourth-ranked scoring offense (27.2 points per game) despite rushing for the fourth-worst yards per game (92.7). With an average, or slightly above-average, offensive line, that's a lot of pressure on Peyton Manning to put points on the board. (Unsurprisingly, the Colts throw for the most yards per game (288.1).) The Jets score the 13th-most points per game (22.9) and have the fourth-ranked rushing attack -- 148.4 yards per game. Mark Sanchez can make some solid plays at times, but with a 75.3 quarterback rating, he may be handing the ball off a lot unless the Jets get down by a few scores.
Defense: The Jets only give up 19 points per game (sixth best), while the Colts allow 24.3 points per game (23rd best). The Jets also forced four more turnovers than the Colts (24-20). In terms of sacks, the Jets had 10 more than the Colts (40-30), but because Manning is so quick with the ball, the Colts only took 16 sacks. The Jets allowed 28.
Special teams: The Jets averaged the third-best kickoff return yardage per attempt (25.2) and returned two kickoffs for touchdowns (both by Brad Smith). The Colts returned one kick for a touchdown (by Tyjuan Hagler on an onside kick), but they only averaged 19.6 yards per return (29th). On punt returns, neither team had a return touchdown; the Jets averaged 9.6 yards per return, and the Colts averaged 6.9 yards per return.
If Manning has a huge game, the Colts will probably win. And if he's under pressure all game and throws a few interceptions, the Jets will likely win. It will be hard for the Colts to run the ball against the Jets, but they should be able to block long enough to give Manning time for much of the game. Still, I don't think either team is that much better than the other, and this is the type of game that could come down to a late field goal. I don't want to side with Sanchez on the road, but he also is working with the better rushing attack and the better offensive line. Manning doesn't have that advantage. I'm going with the Jets.
Last week: 5-11
Regular season: 114-136-6
Saints (-11) over SEAHAWKS
The Saints (11-5) recently placed Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory on injured reserve, leaving them one injury away (to the already injury-prone Reggie Bush) from giving the bulk of their carries to Julius Jones. Safety Malcom Jenkins and tight end Jimmy Graham, who were both injured last week against the Buccaneers, are also expected to miss the game. And yet, despite the Saints' injuries, I have absolutely no confidence in the Seahawks.
You probably already know that the Seahawks recently became the first under-.500 team (at 7-9) to make the playoffs. They were also outscored by 97 points this season and were blown out in each of their nine losses. In fact, their smallest margin of defeat in those nine losses was 15 points, which, interestingly enough, came against the Saints (at New Orleans) in Week 11.
The main two reasons to possibly side with the Seahawks are 1) the Saints' injuries, mentioned above, and 2) that Seattle can be a difficult place to play. The Seahawks finished with a 2-6 record on the road but had a 5-3 home record. So who did they beat at home? The 49ers (6-10), Chargers (9-7), Cardinals (5-11), Panthers (2-14), and Rams (7-9). And who beat them? The Giants (10-6), Chiefs (10-6), and Falcons (13-3). So besides that Chargers win, the Seahawks beat a bunch of bad-to-mediocre teams at home and lost to the good teams. So much for that enormous home-field advantage.
Really, the only thing holding the Saints back in this game will be themselves. And despite the injuries, they should still roll.
Jets (+3) over COLTS
The Colts (10-6) closed out the regular season by winning four straight games, and yet none of those games came over a team above .500. The Jets (11-5), meanwhile, ended the season on a bit of a roller coaster, winning four straight from Week 9 to Week 12, losing two ugly games to the Patriots and Dolphins, somehow beating the Steelers on the road, losing a shootout in Chicago to the Bears, and then blowing out the Bills at home.
So how do these two teams stack up?
Offense: The Colts have the fourth-ranked scoring offense (27.2 points per game) despite rushing for the fourth-worst yards per game (92.7). With an average, or slightly above-average, offensive line, that's a lot of pressure on Peyton Manning to put points on the board. (Unsurprisingly, the Colts throw for the most yards per game (288.1).) The Jets score the 13th-most points per game (22.9) and have the fourth-ranked rushing attack -- 148.4 yards per game. Mark Sanchez can make some solid plays at times, but with a 75.3 quarterback rating, he may be handing the ball off a lot unless the Jets get down by a few scores.
Defense: The Jets only give up 19 points per game (sixth best), while the Colts allow 24.3 points per game (23rd best). The Jets also forced four more turnovers than the Colts (24-20). In terms of sacks, the Jets had 10 more than the Colts (40-30), but because Manning is so quick with the ball, the Colts only took 16 sacks. The Jets allowed 28.
Special teams: The Jets averaged the third-best kickoff return yardage per attempt (25.2) and returned two kickoffs for touchdowns (both by Brad Smith). The Colts returned one kick for a touchdown (by Tyjuan Hagler on an onside kick), but they only averaged 19.6 yards per return (29th). On punt returns, neither team had a return touchdown; the Jets averaged 9.6 yards per return, and the Colts averaged 6.9 yards per return.
If Manning has a huge game, the Colts will probably win. And if he's under pressure all game and throws a few interceptions, the Jets will likely win. It will be hard for the Colts to run the ball against the Jets, but they should be able to block long enough to give Manning time for much of the game. Still, I don't think either team is that much better than the other, and this is the type of game that could come down to a late field goal. I don't want to side with Sanchez on the road, but he also is working with the better rushing attack and the better offensive line. Manning doesn't have that advantage. I'm going with the Jets.
Last week: 5-11
Regular season: 114-136-6
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Championship game picks
Despite the large number of blowouts in the playoffs so far, I can't complain about the matchups in both the AFC and NFC Championship games (especially since the Cowboys and Eagles have been eliminated). The Saints and Vikings were easily the two best teams in the NFC this year, the Colts had the NFL's best record and could still be undefeated if they actually wanted to be, and the Jets have the NFL's best defense and rushing attack and have caught fire at the right time. All four teams deserve to be playing today, and each certainly has a decent chance to get to the Super Bowl.
Here are my picks for the two games:
COLTS (-8) over Jets
To me, the biggest matchup in this game isn't Peyton Manning vs. the Jets defense -- it's the other way around. The Colts are going to do everything in their power to shut down the Jets' ground game and force Mark Sanchez to beat them. Sanchez, as many rookies can be, is turnover prone, and the Colts will try to confuse him and put pressure on him in ways that they didn't show in the teams' first meeting late in the regular season.
In that game (a 29-15 Jets win), which isn't the best example since the Colts pulled their starters early in the third quarter, the Jets only scored one offensive touchdown (a one-yard run by Thomas Jones). Their two other touchdowns came in the third quarter on fluky plays: a 106-yard kickoff return by Brad Smith and a fumble return for a touchdown with backup quarterback Curtis Painter in the game for the Colts. The Jets were able to run the ball (202 yards on 44 carries), but Sanchez didn't do anything out of the ordinary (12-19 for 106 yards).
Sanchez doesn't have to have a big game for the Jets to win, but he does have to take care of the ball and move the chains on more than a few instances. If he plays somewhere in the middle of how he played in the Bengals game (12-15 for 182 yards, one TD) and the Chargers game (12-23 for 100 yards, one TD, one INT), then the Jets should have a shot.
The Jets defense will slow down Manning and the Colts a little bit, but their offense is still going to need to score points. At some point, they may even have to move the ball down the field quickly and won't be able to simply lean on the running game. I just don't think Sanchez can do that in such a big game against a team that's been in this situation many times before.
Colts 24, Jets 13
Vikings (+4) over SAINTS
First, let me say this: I'm pulling for the Saints. I respect Brett Favre and think he's a great quarterback, but I don't want to see him in the Super Bowl.
Back to the game: This has a chance to be a phenomenal playoff game. Now that Percy Harvin has participated in practice, both teams have all of their offensive weapons ready to go (except for Jeremy Shockey, but really, who cares about Shockey?). The Vikings and Saints are both loaded at running back and wide receiver, not to mention that Drew Brees and Favre are two of the best quarterbacks in the game and had fantastic seasons.
Both teams are going to get their points, but I think one of the game's biggest factors is Reggie Bush. He looked awesome last week -- where did that come from? He's always been a threat on special teams, but he was running over Cardinals' defenders and finishing runs in a way that I've never seen him do before. If Bush morphs into that running back threat again, the Saints offense will be almost impossible to stop.
The Vikings, though, looked just as good as the Saints in their 34-3 blowout win over the Cowboys. Favre threw four touchdown passes -- three to Sidney Rice -- and their defense sacked Tony Romo six times and forced three turnovers. Adrian Peterson didn't have a big game (26 carries for 63 yards), but he didn't have to with Favre picking the Cowboys defense apart.
I don't have a particularly strong feeling either way on who's going to win, but I do like that the Vikings led the NFL in sacks with 48 while the Saints only had 35. I expect a ton of yards and points in this game, and one quarterback pressure or sack may be the difference in this shootout.
Saints 34, Vikings 31
Regular season: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 3-5
Overall record: 135-121-8
Here are my picks for the two games:
COLTS (-8) over Jets
To me, the biggest matchup in this game isn't Peyton Manning vs. the Jets defense -- it's the other way around. The Colts are going to do everything in their power to shut down the Jets' ground game and force Mark Sanchez to beat them. Sanchez, as many rookies can be, is turnover prone, and the Colts will try to confuse him and put pressure on him in ways that they didn't show in the teams' first meeting late in the regular season.
In that game (a 29-15 Jets win), which isn't the best example since the Colts pulled their starters early in the third quarter, the Jets only scored one offensive touchdown (a one-yard run by Thomas Jones). Their two other touchdowns came in the third quarter on fluky plays: a 106-yard kickoff return by Brad Smith and a fumble return for a touchdown with backup quarterback Curtis Painter in the game for the Colts. The Jets were able to run the ball (202 yards on 44 carries), but Sanchez didn't do anything out of the ordinary (12-19 for 106 yards).
Sanchez doesn't have to have a big game for the Jets to win, but he does have to take care of the ball and move the chains on more than a few instances. If he plays somewhere in the middle of how he played in the Bengals game (12-15 for 182 yards, one TD) and the Chargers game (12-23 for 100 yards, one TD, one INT), then the Jets should have a shot.
The Jets defense will slow down Manning and the Colts a little bit, but their offense is still going to need to score points. At some point, they may even have to move the ball down the field quickly and won't be able to simply lean on the running game. I just don't think Sanchez can do that in such a big game against a team that's been in this situation many times before.
Colts 24, Jets 13
Vikings (+4) over SAINTS
First, let me say this: I'm pulling for the Saints. I respect Brett Favre and think he's a great quarterback, but I don't want to see him in the Super Bowl.
Back to the game: This has a chance to be a phenomenal playoff game. Now that Percy Harvin has participated in practice, both teams have all of their offensive weapons ready to go (except for Jeremy Shockey, but really, who cares about Shockey?). The Vikings and Saints are both loaded at running back and wide receiver, not to mention that Drew Brees and Favre are two of the best quarterbacks in the game and had fantastic seasons.
Both teams are going to get their points, but I think one of the game's biggest factors is Reggie Bush. He looked awesome last week -- where did that come from? He's always been a threat on special teams, but he was running over Cardinals' defenders and finishing runs in a way that I've never seen him do before. If Bush morphs into that running back threat again, the Saints offense will be almost impossible to stop.
The Vikings, though, looked just as good as the Saints in their 34-3 blowout win over the Cowboys. Favre threw four touchdown passes -- three to Sidney Rice -- and their defense sacked Tony Romo six times and forced three turnovers. Adrian Peterson didn't have a big game (26 carries for 63 yards), but he didn't have to with Favre picking the Cowboys defense apart.
I don't have a particularly strong feeling either way on who's going to win, but I do like that the Vikings led the NFL in sacks with 48 while the Saints only had 35. I expect a ton of yards and points in this game, and one quarterback pressure or sack may be the difference in this shootout.
Saints 34, Vikings 31
Regular season: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 3-5
Overall record: 135-121-8
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Sunday playoff picks (Divisional round)
Well, that was impressive. Both well-rested after first-round byes, the Saints and Colts took care of business on Saturday. The Saints dominated the Cardinals, overwhelming Arizona with 35 first-half points and winning 45-14. The Saints defense was also effective and held Kurt Warner to a mediocre game -- not to mention knocking him out of the game at one point with a huge hit before halftime.
And the Colts shut down the Ravens, 20-3, in another game that seemed decided at halftime (when the Colts led 17-3). Peyton Manning had a solid game (30-44 for 246 yards, two touchdowns, one interception), but the Colts defense was phenomenal, not only holding the Ravens to just three points, but also forcing turnovers, flying around the field, and making solid tackles. The defense forced three turnovers (another was forced by receiver Pierre Garcon on an amazing hustle play to force an Ed Reed fumble after an interception) and held the Ravens to 270 total yards and only 12 first downs. If the Colts defense keeps playing this well, there's no question that they possess strong Super Bowl Odds going forward in the playoffs.
As for my picks yesterday, I went 1-1 (not too bad). I didn't think the Cardinals would get destroyed like that, but I must have underestimated the power of the Superdome.
Here are my picks for the two games today:
Cowboys (+3) over VIKINGS
Which Brett Favre shows up today for the Vikings? And can they get Adrian Peterson going on the ground? I'm not so sure, especially with how well the Cowboys are playing on defense. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no idea what's going to happen in this game.
Jets (+8) over CHARGERS
So which team is better? The Chargers, right? They've won 11 games in a row, they have the better quarterback, and they had a first-round bye. Let's compare some regular season statistics:
Points per game scored: Chargers 28.4 (4th); Jets 21.8 (17th)
Passing yards per game: Chargers 271.1 (5th); Jets 148.8 (31st)
Rushing yards per game: Chargers 88.9 (31st); Jets 172.3 (1st)
Points per game allowed: Chargers 20.0 (11th); Jets 14.8 (1st)
Passing yards per game allowed: Chargers 209.3 (11th); Jets 153.7 (1st)
Rushing yards per game allowed: Chargers 117.6 (20th); Jets 98.6 (8th)
Now, after looking at all that, who's the better team? You at least have to think a little bit harder about it. Obviously, stats aren't everything, but it's certainly impressive that the Jets are very good at running the ball and allow the fewest points on defense. The Chargers, on the other hand, score more points, throw the ball more -- and much more effectively -- and are still decent on defense (allowing 20 points per game isn't bad at all).
So what do we have in this game? The Chargers have a great quarterback and, as they should, love to throw the ball and keep the ball in his hands. But they don't particularly run the ball well. They also have a decent defense and led the AFC in turnover differential (+10). The Jets, on the other hand, have a rookie quarterback who threw 20 interceptions during the regular season, but they have an outstanding offensive line and have no problem pounding the ball until the opposing defense breaks. They also have arguably the best defense in the NFL and the best cornerback as well, who will certainly affect the Chargers' passing attack in some way.
I still like the Chargers, but the Jets might be a little better than many people give them credit for (including me). If Mark Sanchez doesn't turn the ball over and the Jets can force a few turnovers, the Jets certainly have a chance. I think the Chargers win at home, but I'm expecting a close game.
Regular season: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 2-4
Overall record: 134-120-8
And the Colts shut down the Ravens, 20-3, in another game that seemed decided at halftime (when the Colts led 17-3). Peyton Manning had a solid game (30-44 for 246 yards, two touchdowns, one interception), but the Colts defense was phenomenal, not only holding the Ravens to just three points, but also forcing turnovers, flying around the field, and making solid tackles. The defense forced three turnovers (another was forced by receiver Pierre Garcon on an amazing hustle play to force an Ed Reed fumble after an interception) and held the Ravens to 270 total yards and only 12 first downs. If the Colts defense keeps playing this well, there's no question that they possess strong Super Bowl Odds going forward in the playoffs.
As for my picks yesterday, I went 1-1 (not too bad). I didn't think the Cardinals would get destroyed like that, but I must have underestimated the power of the Superdome.
Here are my picks for the two games today:
Cowboys (+3) over VIKINGS
Which Brett Favre shows up today for the Vikings? And can they get Adrian Peterson going on the ground? I'm not so sure, especially with how well the Cowboys are playing on defense. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no idea what's going to happen in this game.
Jets (+8) over CHARGERS
So which team is better? The Chargers, right? They've won 11 games in a row, they have the better quarterback, and they had a first-round bye. Let's compare some regular season statistics:
Points per game scored: Chargers 28.4 (4th); Jets 21.8 (17th)
Passing yards per game: Chargers 271.1 (5th); Jets 148.8 (31st)
Rushing yards per game: Chargers 88.9 (31st); Jets 172.3 (1st)
Points per game allowed: Chargers 20.0 (11th); Jets 14.8 (1st)
Passing yards per game allowed: Chargers 209.3 (11th); Jets 153.7 (1st)
Rushing yards per game allowed: Chargers 117.6 (20th); Jets 98.6 (8th)
Now, after looking at all that, who's the better team? You at least have to think a little bit harder about it. Obviously, stats aren't everything, but it's certainly impressive that the Jets are very good at running the ball and allow the fewest points on defense. The Chargers, on the other hand, score more points, throw the ball more -- and much more effectively -- and are still decent on defense (allowing 20 points per game isn't bad at all).
So what do we have in this game? The Chargers have a great quarterback and, as they should, love to throw the ball and keep the ball in his hands. But they don't particularly run the ball well. They also have a decent defense and led the AFC in turnover differential (+10). The Jets, on the other hand, have a rookie quarterback who threw 20 interceptions during the regular season, but they have an outstanding offensive line and have no problem pounding the ball until the opposing defense breaks. They also have arguably the best defense in the NFL and the best cornerback as well, who will certainly affect the Chargers' passing attack in some way.
I still like the Chargers, but the Jets might be a little better than many people give them credit for (including me). If Mark Sanchez doesn't turn the ball over and the Jets can force a few turnovers, the Jets certainly have a chance. I think the Chargers win at home, but I'm expecting a close game.
Regular season: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 2-4
Overall record: 134-120-8
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Saturday playoff picks (Divisional round)
So last week's games didn't turn out too well for me (1-3 record). Let's see if I can improve on that mark. Here are my picks for today's two games:
Cardinals (+7) over SAINTS
COLTS (-7) over Ravens
Regular reason: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 1-3
Overall record: 133-119-8
Cardinals (+7) over SAINTS
COLTS (-7) over Ravens
Regular reason: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 1-3
Overall record: 133-119-8
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Sunday playoff picks (Wild Card round)
Man, what a disappointing first two games -- and I'm not even talking about completely botching both picks. The Bengals couldn't get anything together in the passing department, and they couldn't stop the Jets' rushing attack either. Rookie Shonn Greene ran for 135 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, and Thomas Jones chipped in 34 yards and a touchdown of his own. Even rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez looked pretty good, completing 12 of 15 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown -- and a quarterback rating of 139.4. Carson Palmer, on the other hand, was under siege all day by the Jets defense and completed only 18 of 36 passes with one touchdown and one interception. But the Bengals still had a chance, and they can thank kicker Shayne Graham for destroying momentum with two missed kicks -- a 35-yarder in the third quarter and a 28-yarder in the fourth quarter.
But even as mediocre as the Bengals played, they still put up more of a fight than the Eagles, who lost 34-14 and allowed Dallas to score 27 second-quarter points. The Eagles allowed 426 yards, including 198 rushing yards -- and Marion Barber only rushed the ball three times. Felix Jones was great, rushing for 148 yards on just 16 carries. But the real problem for the Eagles was their offense; they allowed four sacks, lost three fumbles, and couldn't solve what the Cowboys were doing on defense. Donovan McNabb, who was under pressure all night, didn't have a good game, completing only 19 of 37 passes for 230 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Michael Vick, getting a few snaps in the Wildcat, was responsible for the first Eagles' touchdown, hitting Jeremy Maclin on a 76-yard touchdown pass. Unfortunately, Vick also fumbled and didn't contribute much other than that long touchdown pass. And typically, the Eagles weren't interested in running the ball (13 carries for 56 yards).
As for today, I'm hoping for closer and more competitive games. Here are my picks:
Ravens (+3.5) over PATRIOTS
Packers (-2) over CARDINALS
Yes, I'm taking both road teams, and no, I don't really have a great reason why. I think the Wes Welker injury hurts the Patriots more than they're letting on, and that as long as the Packers offensive line gives Aaron Rodgers some time in the pocket, he can pick apart the Cardinals secondary. But, as yesterday showed, I might not have any idea what I'm talking about.
Enjoy the games.
Regular reason: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 0-2
But even as mediocre as the Bengals played, they still put up more of a fight than the Eagles, who lost 34-14 and allowed Dallas to score 27 second-quarter points. The Eagles allowed 426 yards, including 198 rushing yards -- and Marion Barber only rushed the ball three times. Felix Jones was great, rushing for 148 yards on just 16 carries. But the real problem for the Eagles was their offense; they allowed four sacks, lost three fumbles, and couldn't solve what the Cowboys were doing on defense. Donovan McNabb, who was under pressure all night, didn't have a good game, completing only 19 of 37 passes for 230 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Michael Vick, getting a few snaps in the Wildcat, was responsible for the first Eagles' touchdown, hitting Jeremy Maclin on a 76-yard touchdown pass. Unfortunately, Vick also fumbled and didn't contribute much other than that long touchdown pass. And typically, the Eagles weren't interested in running the ball (13 carries for 56 yards).
As for today, I'm hoping for closer and more competitive games. Here are my picks:
Ravens (+3.5) over PATRIOTS
Packers (-2) over CARDINALS
Yes, I'm taking both road teams, and no, I don't really have a great reason why. I think the Wes Welker injury hurts the Patriots more than they're letting on, and that as long as the Packers offensive line gives Aaron Rodgers some time in the pocket, he can pick apart the Cardinals secondary. But, as yesterday showed, I might not have any idea what I'm talking about.
Enjoy the games.
Regular reason: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 0-2
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Saturday playoff picks (Wild Card round)
I was all set to recap the regular season and my record this season picking games, and then I decided I'd rather keep picking games during the playoffs and see how I do. So, real quick, here are my two picks for today's matchups.
(Home team is in caps.)
BENGALS (-3) over Jets
I haven't been able to figure the Bengals out this year. When I think they're going to lose big, somehow they find a way to keep the game close and pull out a win. And like last week, when I think they'll play with some fire and ruin the Jets' chances of making the playoffs, they roll over and lay an egg.
But there has to be a reason why they didn't put up a fight last week. Are they relishing their chance to face a rookie quarterback who has to play his first playoff game on the road? Do they feel like they can stop the Jets' potent rushing attack? Or were they simply not concerned with who they'd face this week? Either way, I think the Bengals might know something we don't.
Eagles (+4) over COWBOYS
I really wanted to pick the Cowboys. I think they're the better team, and they have everything working for them right now: Tony Romo is playing well, they can run the ball, and their defense is getting to the quarterback with ease. The Eagles, on the other hand, just got destroyed last week in Dallas.
But I just can't pull the trigger. Maybe it's because I'm a Redskins fan, or maybe it's because I see the Eagles and Donovan McNabb actually showing up this week. Either way, I expect a much better game between these two.
Last week: 6-9-1
Season: 132-116-8
(Home team is in caps.)
BENGALS (-3) over Jets
I haven't been able to figure the Bengals out this year. When I think they're going to lose big, somehow they find a way to keep the game close and pull out a win. And like last week, when I think they'll play with some fire and ruin the Jets' chances of making the playoffs, they roll over and lay an egg.
But there has to be a reason why they didn't put up a fight last week. Are they relishing their chance to face a rookie quarterback who has to play his first playoff game on the road? Do they feel like they can stop the Jets' potent rushing attack? Or were they simply not concerned with who they'd face this week? Either way, I think the Bengals might know something we don't.
Eagles (+4) over COWBOYS
I really wanted to pick the Cowboys. I think they're the better team, and they have everything working for them right now: Tony Romo is playing well, they can run the ball, and their defense is getting to the quarterback with ease. The Eagles, on the other hand, just got destroyed last week in Dallas.
But I just can't pull the trigger. Maybe it's because I'm a Redskins fan, or maybe it's because I see the Eagles and Donovan McNabb actually showing up this week. Either way, I expect a much better game between these two.
Last week: 6-9-1
Season: 132-116-8
Friday, January 16, 2009
Three predictions
I don't have the time for a long post this weekend, but I see three things happening:
1) The Steelers beat the Ravens 23-13. Willie Parker being healthy makes a difference.
2) The Cardinals take down the Eagles 28-24. I know the Redskins beat the Cardinals at home, but the Redskins also beat the Eagles twice. If a team allows that Redskins team to beat them twice, anything can happen. Is that a reason for making a pick? Probably not -- but I'm no expert.
3) The Super Bowl matchup will be weird. Seriously -- Cardinals vs. Steelers? I kind of hope this doesn't happen, but if it does, whatever. Better than an Eagles-Steelers Pennsylvania lovefest.
1) The Steelers beat the Ravens 23-13. Willie Parker being healthy makes a difference.
2) The Cardinals take down the Eagles 28-24. I know the Redskins beat the Cardinals at home, but the Redskins also beat the Eagles twice. If a team allows that Redskins team to beat them twice, anything can happen. Is that a reason for making a pick? Probably not -- but I'm no expert.
3) The Super Bowl matchup will be weird. Seriously -- Cardinals vs. Steelers? I kind of hope this doesn't happen, but if it does, whatever. Better than an Eagles-Steelers Pennsylvania lovefest.
Have fun watching the games.
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