Wow, what a great way to begin the NFL playoffs. First the Seahawks shocked the Saints, 41-36, in a high-scoring, exciting game, and then the Jets survived a last-minute field goal by Adam Vinatieri and won on a last-second field goal of their own (by Nick Folk) to get a 17-16 win over the Colts. Today's games probably can't top those two, but they should still be entertaining.
I sided with the Saints and Jets, so I went 1-1 with my first two playoff picks. Here are my next two (which won't be as in-depth).
CHIEFS (+3.5) over Ravens
Did you know that the Chiefs (10-6) are 7-1 at home this season? They only beat one team above .500 (the 9-7 Chargers), but that's rather impressive. Still, they didn't face a lot of great teams this season; it's not a knock on them, it's just a fact. The 12-4 Ravens, on the other hand, played a much tougher schedule that included games against the Jets, Patriots, Falcons, Saints, Buccaneers, and Steelers (twice). They seem like the much more battle-tested team, but they'll still have their hands full with the resurgent Chiefs, especially in Kansas City.
On offense, the two teams are pretty similar: The Chiefs score 22.9 points per game, and the Ravens score 22.3 points per game. Defensively, the Ravens are better, allowing 16.9 points per game, while the Chiefs give up 20.4 points per game.
Matchup to watch: Chiefs rushing attack vs. Ravens rush defense. The Chiefs rush for an NFL-best 164.2 yards per game; the fifth-ranked Ravens rush defense allows 93.9 yards per game. Something has to give.
It's worth noting that Joe Flacco (93.6) and Matt Cassel (93.0) were ranked Nos. 7 and 8, respectively, in quarterback rating this season. Cassel had two more touchdowns and three fewer interceptions, but Flacco threw for more yards (3,622-3,116).
I think the Ravens have a great shot at winning this game; they are favored, after all. But the Chiefs do have the advantage of being home, which actually means something at Arrowhead Stadium. I think the Ravens will win, but it'll be a close game. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see this game turn out to be like the Jets-Colts game.
EAGLES (-3) over Packers
Aaron Rodgers is an outstanding quarterback. This season, he had the third-best quarterback rating (101.2), which was just behind Tom Brady and Philip Rivers. If given time, he has the ability to pick apart just about any defense. Unfortunately, similar to Peyton Manning, his team's offense rests mostly on his arm. The Packers just are not very good at running the ball -- they average just over 100 yards per game on the ground. Although the Eagles aren't that great at stopping the run (110.4 yards per game -- 15th best), they should be able to focus on Rodgers instead of being forced to keep a ton of defenders in the box.
The Eagles do scare me a bit, though. After their enormous come-from-behind victory over the Giants in Week 15, they fell flat and lost to the Vikings in Week 16 before resting some players and basically conceding defeat to the Cowboys in the season's final week. Did they pack things up a little early to gear up for the playoffs? Will some of that rust prove costly against the Packers?
I don't think so. The Packers defense is solid, allowing only 15 points per game, but with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles can put plenty of points on the board against any defense. The real key, to me, is going to be Rodgers against the Eagles defense. He's going to be under pressure, and just a few mistakes could prove costly.
The lack of a run game will hurt the Packers dearly, and the Eagles will win this game by at least a touchdown.
Regular season: 114-136-6
Playoffs: 1-1
Overall: 115-137-6
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Saturday, January 8, 2011
NFL playoff picks: Wild-card round (Saturday)
Just a terrible job during the regular season picking games. So much for the moral victory of getting back to .500. But it's playoff time now, which means it's time to focus -- or something like that.
Saints (-11) over SEAHAWKS
The Saints (11-5) recently placed Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory on injured reserve, leaving them one injury away (to the already injury-prone Reggie Bush) from giving the bulk of their carries to Julius Jones. Safety Malcom Jenkins and tight end Jimmy Graham, who were both injured last week against the Buccaneers, are also expected to miss the game. And yet, despite the Saints' injuries, I have absolutely no confidence in the Seahawks.
You probably already know that the Seahawks recently became the first under-.500 team (at 7-9) to make the playoffs. They were also outscored by 97 points this season and were blown out in each of their nine losses. In fact, their smallest margin of defeat in those nine losses was 15 points, which, interestingly enough, came against the Saints (at New Orleans) in Week 11.
The main two reasons to possibly side with the Seahawks are 1) the Saints' injuries, mentioned above, and 2) that Seattle can be a difficult place to play. The Seahawks finished with a 2-6 record on the road but had a 5-3 home record. So who did they beat at home? The 49ers (6-10), Chargers (9-7), Cardinals (5-11), Panthers (2-14), and Rams (7-9). And who beat them? The Giants (10-6), Chiefs (10-6), and Falcons (13-3). So besides that Chargers win, the Seahawks beat a bunch of bad-to-mediocre teams at home and lost to the good teams. So much for that enormous home-field advantage.
Really, the only thing holding the Saints back in this game will be themselves. And despite the injuries, they should still roll.
Jets (+3) over COLTS
The Colts (10-6) closed out the regular season by winning four straight games, and yet none of those games came over a team above .500. The Jets (11-5), meanwhile, ended the season on a bit of a roller coaster, winning four straight from Week 9 to Week 12, losing two ugly games to the Patriots and Dolphins, somehow beating the Steelers on the road, losing a shootout in Chicago to the Bears, and then blowing out the Bills at home.
So how do these two teams stack up?
Offense: The Colts have the fourth-ranked scoring offense (27.2 points per game) despite rushing for the fourth-worst yards per game (92.7). With an average, or slightly above-average, offensive line, that's a lot of pressure on Peyton Manning to put points on the board. (Unsurprisingly, the Colts throw for the most yards per game (288.1).) The Jets score the 13th-most points per game (22.9) and have the fourth-ranked rushing attack -- 148.4 yards per game. Mark Sanchez can make some solid plays at times, but with a 75.3 quarterback rating, he may be handing the ball off a lot unless the Jets get down by a few scores.
Defense: The Jets only give up 19 points per game (sixth best), while the Colts allow 24.3 points per game (23rd best). The Jets also forced four more turnovers than the Colts (24-20). In terms of sacks, the Jets had 10 more than the Colts (40-30), but because Manning is so quick with the ball, the Colts only took 16 sacks. The Jets allowed 28.
Special teams: The Jets averaged the third-best kickoff return yardage per attempt (25.2) and returned two kickoffs for touchdowns (both by Brad Smith). The Colts returned one kick for a touchdown (by Tyjuan Hagler on an onside kick), but they only averaged 19.6 yards per return (29th). On punt returns, neither team had a return touchdown; the Jets averaged 9.6 yards per return, and the Colts averaged 6.9 yards per return.
If Manning has a huge game, the Colts will probably win. And if he's under pressure all game and throws a few interceptions, the Jets will likely win. It will be hard for the Colts to run the ball against the Jets, but they should be able to block long enough to give Manning time for much of the game. Still, I don't think either team is that much better than the other, and this is the type of game that could come down to a late field goal. I don't want to side with Sanchez on the road, but he also is working with the better rushing attack and the better offensive line. Manning doesn't have that advantage. I'm going with the Jets.
Last week: 5-11
Regular season: 114-136-6
Saints (-11) over SEAHAWKS
The Saints (11-5) recently placed Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory on injured reserve, leaving them one injury away (to the already injury-prone Reggie Bush) from giving the bulk of their carries to Julius Jones. Safety Malcom Jenkins and tight end Jimmy Graham, who were both injured last week against the Buccaneers, are also expected to miss the game. And yet, despite the Saints' injuries, I have absolutely no confidence in the Seahawks.
You probably already know that the Seahawks recently became the first under-.500 team (at 7-9) to make the playoffs. They were also outscored by 97 points this season and were blown out in each of their nine losses. In fact, their smallest margin of defeat in those nine losses was 15 points, which, interestingly enough, came against the Saints (at New Orleans) in Week 11.
The main two reasons to possibly side with the Seahawks are 1) the Saints' injuries, mentioned above, and 2) that Seattle can be a difficult place to play. The Seahawks finished with a 2-6 record on the road but had a 5-3 home record. So who did they beat at home? The 49ers (6-10), Chargers (9-7), Cardinals (5-11), Panthers (2-14), and Rams (7-9). And who beat them? The Giants (10-6), Chiefs (10-6), and Falcons (13-3). So besides that Chargers win, the Seahawks beat a bunch of bad-to-mediocre teams at home and lost to the good teams. So much for that enormous home-field advantage.
Really, the only thing holding the Saints back in this game will be themselves. And despite the injuries, they should still roll.
Jets (+3) over COLTS
The Colts (10-6) closed out the regular season by winning four straight games, and yet none of those games came over a team above .500. The Jets (11-5), meanwhile, ended the season on a bit of a roller coaster, winning four straight from Week 9 to Week 12, losing two ugly games to the Patriots and Dolphins, somehow beating the Steelers on the road, losing a shootout in Chicago to the Bears, and then blowing out the Bills at home.
So how do these two teams stack up?
Offense: The Colts have the fourth-ranked scoring offense (27.2 points per game) despite rushing for the fourth-worst yards per game (92.7). With an average, or slightly above-average, offensive line, that's a lot of pressure on Peyton Manning to put points on the board. (Unsurprisingly, the Colts throw for the most yards per game (288.1).) The Jets score the 13th-most points per game (22.9) and have the fourth-ranked rushing attack -- 148.4 yards per game. Mark Sanchez can make some solid plays at times, but with a 75.3 quarterback rating, he may be handing the ball off a lot unless the Jets get down by a few scores.
Defense: The Jets only give up 19 points per game (sixth best), while the Colts allow 24.3 points per game (23rd best). The Jets also forced four more turnovers than the Colts (24-20). In terms of sacks, the Jets had 10 more than the Colts (40-30), but because Manning is so quick with the ball, the Colts only took 16 sacks. The Jets allowed 28.
Special teams: The Jets averaged the third-best kickoff return yardage per attempt (25.2) and returned two kickoffs for touchdowns (both by Brad Smith). The Colts returned one kick for a touchdown (by Tyjuan Hagler on an onside kick), but they only averaged 19.6 yards per return (29th). On punt returns, neither team had a return touchdown; the Jets averaged 9.6 yards per return, and the Colts averaged 6.9 yards per return.
If Manning has a huge game, the Colts will probably win. And if he's under pressure all game and throws a few interceptions, the Jets will likely win. It will be hard for the Colts to run the ball against the Jets, but they should be able to block long enough to give Manning time for much of the game. Still, I don't think either team is that much better than the other, and this is the type of game that could come down to a late field goal. I don't want to side with Sanchez on the road, but he also is working with the better rushing attack and the better offensive line. Manning doesn't have that advantage. I'm going with the Jets.
Last week: 5-11
Regular season: 114-136-6
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Week 17 picks
This post is my first in 2011, so Happy New Year, everyone. I finished 10-6 in Week 15, and Week 16's picks can be found here, here, here, and here. Yeah, that's a little confusing, but I couldn't put up a full picks post because of the holidays. Blame it on Santa.
For the most part, Week 17 is basically a crapshoot. Some playoff-bound teams will start resting their players, and there are already a ton of injuries since it's the last week of a long season. For what it's worth, I'm also not a fan of extending the regular season two games. Just take a look at some of the quarterbacks who will probably get playing time this week: Joe Webb, Stephen McGee, Jimmy Clausen, Brodie Croyle, Mark Brunell/Kellen Clemens, Kevin Kolb, Rex Grossman, Alex Smith/Troy Smith, John Skelton, Trent Edwards, and Charlie Whitehurst. It's hard to get excited about that. Some of them will end up playing only because their teams will be resting their regular starting quarterbacks, but most of them will be playing as a result of injuries. No wonder the league is trying to protect quarterbacks, especially its stars, so much.
Anyway, on to the picks. Enjoy the games!
Raiders (+3.5) over CHIEFS
PATRIOTS (-6) over Dolphins
Steelers (-6) over BROWNS
RAVENS (-10) over Bengals
Vikings (+3) over LIONS
Bills (+8) over JETS
FALCONS (-14) over Panthers
SAINTS (-7.5) over Buccaneers
COLTS (-10) over Titans
TEXANS (-3) over Jaguars
Giants (-4.5) over REDSKINS
PACKERS (-10) over Bears
EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys
Cardinals (+6) over 49ERS
BRONCOS (+3.5) over Chargers
Rams (-3) over SEAHAWKS
Last week: 9-7
Season: 109-125-6
For the most part, Week 17 is basically a crapshoot. Some playoff-bound teams will start resting their players, and there are already a ton of injuries since it's the last week of a long season. For what it's worth, I'm also not a fan of extending the regular season two games. Just take a look at some of the quarterbacks who will probably get playing time this week: Joe Webb, Stephen McGee, Jimmy Clausen, Brodie Croyle, Mark Brunell/Kellen Clemens, Kevin Kolb, Rex Grossman, Alex Smith/Troy Smith, John Skelton, Trent Edwards, and Charlie Whitehurst. It's hard to get excited about that. Some of them will end up playing only because their teams will be resting their regular starting quarterbacks, but most of them will be playing as a result of injuries. No wonder the league is trying to protect quarterbacks, especially its stars, so much.
Anyway, on to the picks. Enjoy the games!
Raiders (+3.5) over CHIEFS
PATRIOTS (-6) over Dolphins
Steelers (-6) over BROWNS
RAVENS (-10) over Bengals
Vikings (+3) over LIONS
Bills (+8) over JETS
FALCONS (-14) over Panthers
SAINTS (-7.5) over Buccaneers
COLTS (-10) over Titans
TEXANS (-3) over Jaguars
Giants (-4.5) over REDSKINS
PACKERS (-10) over Bears
EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys
Cardinals (+6) over 49ERS
BRONCOS (+3.5) over Chargers
Rams (-3) over SEAHAWKS
Last week: 9-7
Season: 109-125-6
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Week 15 picks
No write-ups this week -- just the picks.
CHARGERS (-9.5) over 49ers
Picked this one right.
Chiefs (-1) over RAMS
Texans (+1) over TITANS
Jaguars (+5) over COLTS
PANTHERS (-2.5) over Cardinals
Browns (+1) over BENGALS
Bills (+5.5) over DOLPHINS
Eagles (+3) over GIANTS
COWBOYS (-7) over Redskins
Lions (+6) over BUCCANEERS
Saints (+1) over RAVENS
Falcons (-7) over SEAHAWKS
Jets (+6) over STEELERS
RAIDERS (-6.5) over Broncos
PATRIOTS (-11) over Packers
Bears (-6) over VIKINGS
Last week: 7-9
Season: 90-112-6
CHARGERS (-9.5) over 49ers
Picked this one right.
Chiefs (-1) over RAMS
Texans (+1) over TITANS
Jaguars (+5) over COLTS
PANTHERS (-2.5) over Cardinals
Browns (+1) over BENGALS
Bills (+5.5) over DOLPHINS
Eagles (+3) over GIANTS
COWBOYS (-7) over Redskins
Lions (+6) over BUCCANEERS
Saints (+1) over RAVENS
Falcons (-7) over SEAHAWKS
Jets (+6) over STEELERS
RAIDERS (-6.5) over Broncos
PATRIOTS (-11) over Packers
Bears (-6) over VIKINGS
Last week: 7-9
Season: 90-112-6
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Week 14 picks
To put it bluntly, picking games this season has been a disaster. Losing close games is common, but it seems to be even more of a weekly occurrence this season. Twenty games under .500 is pretty terrible, especially since I finished 15 games above .500 last year in my first year actually writing out/documenting my NFL picks. Maybe things are just evening out, or maybe I'm just not that good at it to begin with (likely). But with four weeks of games left to go (and then playoff picks), my goal is to get to .500. It's improbable, and there's a better chance that my record steadily deteriorates instead, but hey, there's nothing wrong with looking for moral victories at a time like this. I'm not above that.
To the picks:
Colts (-3.5) over TITANS
Picked this one, incorrectly, on Thursday morning. Special thanks to the Titans for ruining this pick with a touchdown on the last play of the game. That was awesome.
Raiders (+4) over JAGUARS
The Colts' win really puts pressure on the Jaguars, who would like to stay a game ahead heading into next week's Jaguars-Colts showdown in Indianapolis. But the Raiders may actually be better than the Jaguars, regardless of what the Jags need to do.
Bengals (+9) over STEELERS
The Steelers will win, but nine points just seems like a lot for as many field goals as Pittsburgh has kicked the last two weeks.
Browns (PK) over BILLS
In Peyton Hillis we trust -- as long as Jake Delhomme doesn't blow it.
Giants (-3) over VIKINGS
With how gimpy Brett Favre is these days, the Giants may actually prefer that the turnover-prone quarterback played. Still, they're going to load up the box with defenders to stop Adrian Peterson, meaning that either Favre or Tarvaris Jackson is going to have to beat them. And with Percy Harvin likely to miss another game, that won't be such an easy task.
Packers (-7) over LIONS
Drew Stanton actually wasn't too bad last week against a solid Bears defense. Can he do that against one of the NFL's best defenses for the second straight week? I doubt it.
Falcons (-7.5) over PANTHERS
Isn't picking against the Panthers a given at this point?
Buccaneers (-3) over REDSKINS
Ditto for the Redskins (oh, plus injuries, no blocking, etc.).
SAINTS (-9) over Rams
The Rams get a wake-up call after a rather easy win over the Cardinals last week.
Seahawks (+5.5) over 49ERS
Alex Smith gets the start at quarterback this week for San Francisco. I don't really have anything else to add.
Patriots (-3) over BEARS
If there was a time for a let-down game for the Patriots, this game -- on the road, against a tough defense and a team that's won five straight games -- might be it. But the Patriots have won four straight of their own and have dominated teams the last few weeks. I'll side with Tom Brady over Jay Cutler.
JETS (-6) over Dolphins
The Jets were flat-out embarrassed last week against the Patriots. Rex Ryan will make sure that that kind of lackadaisical effort doesn't happen again.
Broncos (-4) over CARDINALS
It would be pretty simple to make a John Skelton joke, but the Cardinals are bad no matter who starts at quarterback. It's not your fault, Mr. Skelton.
CHARGERS (-7) over Chiefs
With Matt Cassel (23 TD, 4 INT) out this week, Brodie Croyle (career: 8 TD, 8 INT) gets the start under center for the Chiefs. Kansas City loves to run the ball, but not THAT much.
COWBOYS (+3.5) over Eagles
I don't know how it's possible, but it's Week 14 and the Cowboys and Eagles haven't played each other yet. What's that all about? Anyway, the Eagles will have their hands full against, ahem, a resurgent Cowboys team that has won three of its last four -- and could have won four straight if not for a Roy Williams fumble against the Saints. The Eagles appear to have the edge, but losing Asante Samuel and Winston Justice definitely hurts.
Ravens (-3) over TEXANS
It's a home game, but I'd be shocked if the Texans won this game -- especially since they aren't exactly adept at taking down very good teams this season. How's that for insight?
-----
Wow, that's a lot of road picks. That can't possibly work, right?
Last week: 7-9
Season: 83-103-6
To the picks:
Colts (-3.5) over TITANS
Picked this one, incorrectly, on Thursday morning. Special thanks to the Titans for ruining this pick with a touchdown on the last play of the game. That was awesome.
Raiders (+4) over JAGUARS
The Colts' win really puts pressure on the Jaguars, who would like to stay a game ahead heading into next week's Jaguars-Colts showdown in Indianapolis. But the Raiders may actually be better than the Jaguars, regardless of what the Jags need to do.
Bengals (+9) over STEELERS
The Steelers will win, but nine points just seems like a lot for as many field goals as Pittsburgh has kicked the last two weeks.
Browns (PK) over BILLS
In Peyton Hillis we trust -- as long as Jake Delhomme doesn't blow it.
Giants (-3) over VIKINGS
With how gimpy Brett Favre is these days, the Giants may actually prefer that the turnover-prone quarterback played. Still, they're going to load up the box with defenders to stop Adrian Peterson, meaning that either Favre or Tarvaris Jackson is going to have to beat them. And with Percy Harvin likely to miss another game, that won't be such an easy task.
Packers (-7) over LIONS
Drew Stanton actually wasn't too bad last week against a solid Bears defense. Can he do that against one of the NFL's best defenses for the second straight week? I doubt it.
Falcons (-7.5) over PANTHERS
Isn't picking against the Panthers a given at this point?
Buccaneers (-3) over REDSKINS
Ditto for the Redskins (oh, plus injuries, no blocking, etc.).
SAINTS (-9) over Rams
The Rams get a wake-up call after a rather easy win over the Cardinals last week.
Seahawks (+5.5) over 49ERS
Alex Smith gets the start at quarterback this week for San Francisco. I don't really have anything else to add.
Patriots (-3) over BEARS
If there was a time for a let-down game for the Patriots, this game -- on the road, against a tough defense and a team that's won five straight games -- might be it. But the Patriots have won four straight of their own and have dominated teams the last few weeks. I'll side with Tom Brady over Jay Cutler.
JETS (-6) over Dolphins
The Jets were flat-out embarrassed last week against the Patriots. Rex Ryan will make sure that that kind of lackadaisical effort doesn't happen again.
Broncos (-4) over CARDINALS
It would be pretty simple to make a John Skelton joke, but the Cardinals are bad no matter who starts at quarterback. It's not your fault, Mr. Skelton.
CHARGERS (-7) over Chiefs
With Matt Cassel (23 TD, 4 INT) out this week, Brodie Croyle (career: 8 TD, 8 INT) gets the start under center for the Chiefs. Kansas City loves to run the ball, but not THAT much.
COWBOYS (+3.5) over Eagles
I don't know how it's possible, but it's Week 14 and the Cowboys and Eagles haven't played each other yet. What's that all about? Anyway, the Eagles will have their hands full against, ahem, a resurgent Cowboys team that has won three of its last four -- and could have won four straight if not for a Roy Williams fumble against the Saints. The Eagles appear to have the edge, but losing Asante Samuel and Winston Justice definitely hurts.
Ravens (-3) over TEXANS
It's a home game, but I'd be shocked if the Texans won this game -- especially since they aren't exactly adept at taking down very good teams this season. How's that for insight?
-----
Wow, that's a lot of road picks. That can't possibly work, right?
Last week: 7-9
Season: 83-103-6
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Week 13 picks
Here are my picks for Week 13.
EAGLES (-9) over Texans
Picked this one already here.
Bills (+6) over VIKINGS
The Bills deserve a lot of credit. They're only 2-9, but they've either won or lost by just three points going all the way back to Week 7. In that stretch, they've lost to the Ravens, Chiefs, Bears, and Steelers -- all by three points each. Considering those teams have a combined record of 31-13, that's rather impressive for a two-win team. Wins are obviously most important, but there's something to be said for a below-average team battling week in and week out.
DOLPHINS (-5) over Browns
A few weeks ago I said the Dolphins were not to be trusted anymore, and maybe they're not. But Jake Delhomme is starting this game for the Browns. Enough said.
TITANS (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars continue to be a confusing team. Not counting the NFC West because of how much of a disaster that division has been, the Jaguars are the only division leader (via tiebreaker over the Colts) that has been outscored this season (-54). Here are the point differentials for the other division leaders: Eagles (+63), Bears (+50), Falcons (+67), Jets (+77), Ravens (+62), Chiefs (+54). Also, at 6-5, the Jaguars have beaten just one team that's currently above .500: the Colts, in a 31-28 win. Now, at 5-6, the Titans are not necessarily a bad team and have actually outscored their opponents by 39 points; unfortunately, they've lost their last four games. It's entirely possible that the Titans have shut things down and will lay down again this week. But Kerry Collins will start at quarterback, which is great for the Titans because 1) it gives them some semblance of a passing game, and 2) he's not Rusty Smith. Chris Johnson is also due for a bounce-back performance after rushing for five yards last week.
CHIEFS (-8.5) over Broncos
I'm not sure how the Broncos blew the Chiefs out (49-29) a few weeks ago. Maybe it was the mile-high air or the fact that, shockingly enough, the Broncos jumped out to a 35-0 lead in the second quarter. But the Chiefs have not lost a game yet at home this season, and they should be able to put up plenty of points against the NFL's worst-ranked defense (29.4 points per game). I'm also going to bet that the Broncos don't have 35 points by halftime again either.
GIANTS (-7) over Redskins
This game is all about the battle upfront. If the Redskins can get some pressure on Eli Manning and also give Donovan McNabb enough time to throw, the Skins have a chance to earn the upset win on the road. If not, it's going to be a long day.
Bears (-5) over LIONS
Two words: Drew Stanton.
PACKERS (-9) over 49ers
Saints (-7) over BENGALS
CHARGERS (-13) over Raiders
It's entirely possible that one of these games, or even all three, end up being close. But I just have no confidence in making any of those choices.
Falcons (-3) over BUCCANEERS
Here's another team that deserves a lot of credit: Tampa Bay. At 7-4, they're plenty alive in the battle for a playoff spot in the NFC. Still, the 9-2 Falcons are absolutely rolling and have won five straight. Division rivals always have the chance for an upset, but the Falcons' only losses this season have come against the Steelers and Eagles -- two outstanding teams.
SEAHAWKS (-4.5) over Panthers
Rams (-3.5) over CARDINALS
These two games may end up being pretty bad, and yet they have playoff implications because of how awful the NFC West is. At 5-6, a win for the Seahawks or Rams would put them at .500. So that's something.
COLTS (-5.5) over Cowboys
Tough loss for the Cowboys last week, and now they get to travel to Indianapolis to face an angry Colts team that really, really needs a win. The Colts have been proven to have flaws, particularly in the running game, but it would be difficult to argue that the Cowboys don't have just as many flaws, if not more.
Steelers (+3) over RAVENS
Jets (+4) over PATRIOTS
Sunday and Monday Night Football should be phenomenal this week, as maybe the top four teams in the AFC will be battling. All four teams are rather even, and I wouldn't be shocked to see both games go down to the wire. And actually, that's what I'm predicting: games decided by a late touchdown or field goal.
Last week: 8-8
Season: 76-94-6
EAGLES (-9) over Texans
Picked this one already here.
Bills (+6) over VIKINGS
The Bills deserve a lot of credit. They're only 2-9, but they've either won or lost by just three points going all the way back to Week 7. In that stretch, they've lost to the Ravens, Chiefs, Bears, and Steelers -- all by three points each. Considering those teams have a combined record of 31-13, that's rather impressive for a two-win team. Wins are obviously most important, but there's something to be said for a below-average team battling week in and week out.
DOLPHINS (-5) over Browns
A few weeks ago I said the Dolphins were not to be trusted anymore, and maybe they're not. But Jake Delhomme is starting this game for the Browns. Enough said.
TITANS (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars continue to be a confusing team. Not counting the NFC West because of how much of a disaster that division has been, the Jaguars are the only division leader (via tiebreaker over the Colts) that has been outscored this season (-54). Here are the point differentials for the other division leaders: Eagles (+63), Bears (+50), Falcons (+67), Jets (+77), Ravens (+62), Chiefs (+54). Also, at 6-5, the Jaguars have beaten just one team that's currently above .500: the Colts, in a 31-28 win. Now, at 5-6, the Titans are not necessarily a bad team and have actually outscored their opponents by 39 points; unfortunately, they've lost their last four games. It's entirely possible that the Titans have shut things down and will lay down again this week. But Kerry Collins will start at quarterback, which is great for the Titans because 1) it gives them some semblance of a passing game, and 2) he's not Rusty Smith. Chris Johnson is also due for a bounce-back performance after rushing for five yards last week.
CHIEFS (-8.5) over Broncos
I'm not sure how the Broncos blew the Chiefs out (49-29) a few weeks ago. Maybe it was the mile-high air or the fact that, shockingly enough, the Broncos jumped out to a 35-0 lead in the second quarter. But the Chiefs have not lost a game yet at home this season, and they should be able to put up plenty of points against the NFL's worst-ranked defense (29.4 points per game). I'm also going to bet that the Broncos don't have 35 points by halftime again either.
GIANTS (-7) over Redskins
This game is all about the battle upfront. If the Redskins can get some pressure on Eli Manning and also give Donovan McNabb enough time to throw, the Skins have a chance to earn the upset win on the road. If not, it's going to be a long day.
Bears (-5) over LIONS
Two words: Drew Stanton.
PACKERS (-9) over 49ers
Saints (-7) over BENGALS
CHARGERS (-13) over Raiders
It's entirely possible that one of these games, or even all three, end up being close. But I just have no confidence in making any of those choices.
Falcons (-3) over BUCCANEERS
Here's another team that deserves a lot of credit: Tampa Bay. At 7-4, they're plenty alive in the battle for a playoff spot in the NFC. Still, the 9-2 Falcons are absolutely rolling and have won five straight. Division rivals always have the chance for an upset, but the Falcons' only losses this season have come against the Steelers and Eagles -- two outstanding teams.
SEAHAWKS (-4.5) over Panthers
Rams (-3.5) over CARDINALS
These two games may end up being pretty bad, and yet they have playoff implications because of how awful the NFC West is. At 5-6, a win for the Seahawks or Rams would put them at .500. So that's something.
COLTS (-5.5) over Cowboys
Tough loss for the Cowboys last week, and now they get to travel to Indianapolis to face an angry Colts team that really, really needs a win. The Colts have been proven to have flaws, particularly in the running game, but it would be difficult to argue that the Cowboys don't have just as many flaws, if not more.
Steelers (+3) over RAVENS
Jets (+4) over PATRIOTS
Sunday and Monday Night Football should be phenomenal this week, as maybe the top four teams in the AFC will be battling. All four teams are rather even, and I wouldn't be shocked to see both games go down to the wire. And actually, that's what I'm predicting: games decided by a late touchdown or field goal.
Last week: 8-8
Season: 76-94-6
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Thursday night pick
I'm in a hurry this morning, so two quick things before I make my Texans-Eagles pick: 1) nice win (62-39) for the Terps last night on the road against Penn State, even if they started out extremely sloppy and slow (they didn't score a point until about five minutes into the game); and 2) awful effort -- particularly on the defensive end -- from the Wizards last night against the Raptors (a 127-108 loss). The Wiz are also now 0-9 on the road.
On to the pick!
EAGLES (-9) over Texans
The Eagles offense is tied for second in the NFL in points per game (28.2), and after a subpar game against a tough Bears defense last week, Michael Vick and the Eagles should be able to score at will against a Texans defense that allows the fifth-most yards per game (386.4) and the seventh-most points per game (26.1). The Texans looked much better in a 20-0 win over the Titans last week, but that came against a currently dysfunctional team with a third-string quarterback named Rusty Smith starting who threw three interceptions.
Philadelphia's defense isn't phenomenal and is ranked 20th in points allowed per game (23.4), but they don't allow a ton of rushing yards, meaning that if the Texans can't run the ball effectively with Arian Foster, the Eagles should be able to create enough pressure on Matt Schaub to make him uncomfortable and more susceptible to turn the ball over.
On to the pick!
EAGLES (-9) over Texans
The Eagles offense is tied for second in the NFL in points per game (28.2), and after a subpar game against a tough Bears defense last week, Michael Vick and the Eagles should be able to score at will against a Texans defense that allows the fifth-most yards per game (386.4) and the seventh-most points per game (26.1). The Texans looked much better in a 20-0 win over the Titans last week, but that came against a currently dysfunctional team with a third-string quarterback named Rusty Smith starting who threw three interceptions.
Philadelphia's defense isn't phenomenal and is ranked 20th in points allowed per game (23.4), but they don't allow a ton of rushing yards, meaning that if the Texans can't run the ball effectively with Arian Foster, the Eagles should be able to create enough pressure on Matt Schaub to make him uncomfortable and more susceptible to turn the ball over.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Week 12 picks
Happy Thanksgiving! And here are my picks for Week 12.
Patriots (-7) over LIONS
This one has the chance to be a pretty high-scoring game, with the 22nd (Lions) and 23rd (Patriots) ranked defenses in terms of points allowed. But even though it's Thanksgiving and weird things can happen in games on this day, I'll side with Tom Brady and the Patriots to take care of business.
COWBOYS (+4.5) over Saints
The Saints have been laying low recently, and they quietly haven't lost since their Week 7 defeat against the Browns. This will be their first real test in a few weeks now that the Cowboys seem to be interested in actually showing up and playing harder. I understand that the Cowboys only have three wins, but they're going to do everything in their power not to get blown out and embarrassed at home. (Did you know that the Saints defense only allows 17.0 points per game? That's No. 4 in the NFL. Gregg Williams continues to do a fantastic job in New Orleans.)
JETS (-9) over Bengals
I guess it's obvious at this point that it's not really the Jets' style to blow out their opponents. But I can't side with a team that gave up 35 unanswered points to the Bills and seemed to quit in front of their home crowd like that. That was ridiculous, and it was probably the game that will get Marvin Lewis fired.
Vikings (+1) over REDSKINS
I really want to side with the Skins after that gutsy win over the Titans last week, but at some point, they're going to be missing too many players. They may be able to survive another week without LaRon Landry and another defender or two, but I'm much more worried about the injury issues on the offensive line. The line performed admirably last week as guys filled in and got the job done, but I just don't know that most of those fill-ins are talented enough to perform in consecutive weeks. The Vikings have been a disaster this year, but if the Redskins and their makeshift line don't block well enough, they won't win.
Steelers (-6.5) over BILLS
I give the Bills a lot of credit. They refused to give up on the season a few weeks ago and have actually pulled out two wins in a row. Unfortunately, they're on the tracks this week as the Steelers train comes rolling into town. Pittsburgh needs a little more fine-tuning before their huge Week 13 battle with the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Bills just aren't as good as they looked last week in that huge (and hilarious) comeback victory over the Bengals. Prediction for this game? Pain.
Titans (+6.5) over TEXANS
Rusty Smith will get the start at quarterback for Tennessee, so that's not a good thing for them at all. But that does mean the Texans will see a heavy dose of Chris Johnson. That also means Jeff Fisher can get back to what his teams usually do best: run the ball and stop opposing teams from scoring. Let's see if he can coach his team up to get the job done this week with all that's going on around him.
Jaguars (+7.5) over GIANTS
The Giants have lost two big games in a row to NFC East foes, and they appear to be folding. Oh, and they also lost Hakeem Nicks for a few weeks. But I still can't believe that the Jaguars are 6-4, especially since they've been outscored by 50 points on the season. I think the Giants will win this week and avoid losing three games in a row, but they may also be missing too many pieces to win handily over Jacksonville. I think the Giants will win, but it'll be close.
BROWNS (-10) over Panthers
That's a lot of points for a 3-7 team to be laying, but the Panthers (1-9) really are that bad. I'll side with the Browns and the Mangenius this week.
Packers (+2) over FALCONS
Huge game between arguably the two best teams in the NFC. I like the Falcons a little more as a team because of their ability to run the ball, but I think the Packers defense makes the difference this week and forces a few turnovers.
RAIDERS (PK) over Dolphins
That Bears-Dolphins game on Thursday night last week was one of the worst football games I've ever seen. Adding in the horrible NFL Network broadcast booth, it may have been the worst football game I've watched. Considering all that, I'm going to penalize the Dolphins and possibly not pick them for the rest of the season. Way to go, guys.
OK, time for the speed round.
Chiefs (-2) over SEAHAWKS
RAVENS (-7.5) over Buccaneers
Eagles (-3) over BEARS
Rams (+4) over BRONCOS
COLTS (-3) over Chargers
49ers (-1) over CARDINALS
Last week: 7-9
Season: 68-86-6
Patriots (-7) over LIONS
This one has the chance to be a pretty high-scoring game, with the 22nd (Lions) and 23rd (Patriots) ranked defenses in terms of points allowed. But even though it's Thanksgiving and weird things can happen in games on this day, I'll side with Tom Brady and the Patriots to take care of business.
COWBOYS (+4.5) over Saints
The Saints have been laying low recently, and they quietly haven't lost since their Week 7 defeat against the Browns. This will be their first real test in a few weeks now that the Cowboys seem to be interested in actually showing up and playing harder. I understand that the Cowboys only have three wins, but they're going to do everything in their power not to get blown out and embarrassed at home. (Did you know that the Saints defense only allows 17.0 points per game? That's No. 4 in the NFL. Gregg Williams continues to do a fantastic job in New Orleans.)
JETS (-9) over Bengals
I guess it's obvious at this point that it's not really the Jets' style to blow out their opponents. But I can't side with a team that gave up 35 unanswered points to the Bills and seemed to quit in front of their home crowd like that. That was ridiculous, and it was probably the game that will get Marvin Lewis fired.
Vikings (+1) over REDSKINS
I really want to side with the Skins after that gutsy win over the Titans last week, but at some point, they're going to be missing too many players. They may be able to survive another week without LaRon Landry and another defender or two, but I'm much more worried about the injury issues on the offensive line. The line performed admirably last week as guys filled in and got the job done, but I just don't know that most of those fill-ins are talented enough to perform in consecutive weeks. The Vikings have been a disaster this year, but if the Redskins and their makeshift line don't block well enough, they won't win.
Steelers (-6.5) over BILLS
I give the Bills a lot of credit. They refused to give up on the season a few weeks ago and have actually pulled out two wins in a row. Unfortunately, they're on the tracks this week as the Steelers train comes rolling into town. Pittsburgh needs a little more fine-tuning before their huge Week 13 battle with the Ravens in Baltimore, and the Bills just aren't as good as they looked last week in that huge (and hilarious) comeback victory over the Bengals. Prediction for this game? Pain.
Titans (+6.5) over TEXANS
Rusty Smith will get the start at quarterback for Tennessee, so that's not a good thing for them at all. But that does mean the Texans will see a heavy dose of Chris Johnson. That also means Jeff Fisher can get back to what his teams usually do best: run the ball and stop opposing teams from scoring. Let's see if he can coach his team up to get the job done this week with all that's going on around him.
Jaguars (+7.5) over GIANTS
The Giants have lost two big games in a row to NFC East foes, and they appear to be folding. Oh, and they also lost Hakeem Nicks for a few weeks. But I still can't believe that the Jaguars are 6-4, especially since they've been outscored by 50 points on the season. I think the Giants will win this week and avoid losing three games in a row, but they may also be missing too many pieces to win handily over Jacksonville. I think the Giants will win, but it'll be close.
BROWNS (-10) over Panthers
That's a lot of points for a 3-7 team to be laying, but the Panthers (1-9) really are that bad. I'll side with the Browns and the Mangenius this week.
Packers (+2) over FALCONS
Huge game between arguably the two best teams in the NFC. I like the Falcons a little more as a team because of their ability to run the ball, but I think the Packers defense makes the difference this week and forces a few turnovers.
RAIDERS (PK) over Dolphins
That Bears-Dolphins game on Thursday night last week was one of the worst football games I've ever seen. Adding in the horrible NFL Network broadcast booth, it may have been the worst football game I've watched. Considering all that, I'm going to penalize the Dolphins and possibly not pick them for the rest of the season. Way to go, guys.
OK, time for the speed round.
Chiefs (-2) over SEAHAWKS
RAVENS (-7.5) over Buccaneers
Eagles (-3) over BEARS
Rams (+4) over BRONCOS
COLTS (-3) over Chargers
49ers (-1) over CARDINALS
Last week: 7-9
Season: 68-86-6
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Week 11 picks
Now that was an absolutely brutal week -- maybe my worst yet. Here's what went wrong: 1) The Ravens had the lead in the final minutes but lost on a last-second drive; 2) the Colts won by six instead of seven; 3) the Texans were headed for overtime before the Jaguars hauled in a Hail Mary pass to win; 4) the previously winless Bills won by two instead of three; and 5) the Jets and Browns looked like they were about to tie before the Browns choked and gave up a game-ending touchdown after whiffing on a few tackles. The Giants also lost at home to the Cowboys despite being 14 points favorites.
So yeah, that really sucked. But just like the Redskins after the fiasco at FedEx on Monday night against the Eagles, I've got to keep moving. Unless I was Albert Haynesworth, of course. Then I could just fall down and give up. But no, I won't do that.
DOLPHINS (-1) over Bears
Forgot to throw this in before. Thanks a lot, Dolphins.
STEELERS (-7.5) over Raiders
Tom Brady and the Patriots moved the ball up and down the field against the Steelers defense last week, but I seriously doubt that Jason Campbell and the Raiders can duplicate that effort. It's not that the Raiders are a bad team -- far from it. They're 5-4 and actually have a better point differential (+47) than the Steelers (+38), thanks to a few blowout wins over the Broncos and Seahawks. Also, the Steelers and Ravens are both 6-3, and the Ravens travel to Carolina to face the Panthers, which should be a cakewalk for Baltimore. The Steelers need to keep pace with the Ravens, and they also probably aren't happy with how they looked last week on Sunday Night Football. Look for them to get things rolling again this week.
JETS (-7) over Texans
It looks like Matt Schaub is going to play after an injury scare earlier in the week, but how can anyone trust the Texans at this point? They haven't won since Week 6. That's a long time. The Jets, on the other hand, keep winning, but they're not winning big. In fact, they haven't won by more than 10 points since their Week 4 38-14 win over the Bills. Well, I think that stretch ends this week, primarily because the Texans have a dreadful defense. The Jets should be able to put up plenty of points, and their defense should pressure Schaub all game long.
Ravens (-12) over PANTHERS
There's simply no way anyone can side with Carolina. Right?
TITANS (-7) over Redskins
Except for the debacle on Monday night against the Eagles, the Redskins have been a competitive team this season. But with LaRon Landry and Carlos Rogers both expected to miss this week's game, the Redskins and their already-struggling defense are in big trouble. If they can manage to keep this game within 10 points, I'll be extremely surprised.
Lions (+7) over COWBOYS
I find it hard to believe that Jason Garrett has the ability to change the entire culture of the Cowboys locker room, but they did look impressive last week in beating the Giants. Still, they are 2-7 for a reason, so it'll take another win or two -- or at least another week of solid effort -- before I start to take them seriously again.
Packers (-3) over VIKINGS
This line seems too low, doesn't it? But who knows, maybe the 3-6 Vikings will make one last stand at home to at least make things interesting. But I doubt it.
Bills (+5) over BENGALS
A 1-8 team travels to take on a 2-7 team -- not exactly the best game of the day, is it?
JAGUARS (-2) over Browns
I was tempted to take the Browns, but losing Josh Cribbs this week is a huge problem for them. Then again, despite having a 3-6 record, the Browns (-10) have a better point differential than the 5-4 Jaguars (-54). That's something to think about, at least.
CHIEFS (-8) over Cardinals
The Chiefs should have no problem feeding Jamaal Charles, with some carries to Thomas Jones thrown in. Hopefully that doesn't end up the other way around.
SAINTS (-11.5) over Seahawks
The Saints just had a bye week and are getting healthier, and they're also playing at home. The Seahawks, on the other hand, just aren't a very good team; I don't care if they have a winning record or not.
RAMS (+3) over Falcons
Like the Packers-Vikings game, this line also seems a little too low. Unlike that game, though, I'll actually side with the Rams this week, for no apparent reason. Maybe that's why I'm having such a hard time picking games this season.
49ERS (-3) over Buccaneers
With Troy Smith under center, the 49ers are 2-0. And no, I never thought I would write that sentence.
PATRIOTS (-4) over Colts
The Patriots (7-2) are firing on all cylinders lately. Meanwhile, the Colts are 6-3 and are still obviously a threatening team, but something just seems a little off about them. I guess it's all Pierre Garcon's fault.
Giants (+3.5) over EAGLES
Seriously, who knows?
Broncos (+10) over CHARGERS
I have no concrete reason to pick against Philip Rivers, but Antonio Gates will probably be out again. Ten points also seems a little high, but maybe that's just me.
Last week: 4-10
Season: 61-77-6
So yeah, that really sucked. But just like the Redskins after the fiasco at FedEx on Monday night against the Eagles, I've got to keep moving. Unless I was Albert Haynesworth, of course. Then I could just fall down and give up. But no, I won't do that.
DOLPHINS (-1) over Bears
Forgot to throw this in before. Thanks a lot, Dolphins.
STEELERS (-7.5) over Raiders
Tom Brady and the Patriots moved the ball up and down the field against the Steelers defense last week, but I seriously doubt that Jason Campbell and the Raiders can duplicate that effort. It's not that the Raiders are a bad team -- far from it. They're 5-4 and actually have a better point differential (+47) than the Steelers (+38), thanks to a few blowout wins over the Broncos and Seahawks. Also, the Steelers and Ravens are both 6-3, and the Ravens travel to Carolina to face the Panthers, which should be a cakewalk for Baltimore. The Steelers need to keep pace with the Ravens, and they also probably aren't happy with how they looked last week on Sunday Night Football. Look for them to get things rolling again this week.
JETS (-7) over Texans
It looks like Matt Schaub is going to play after an injury scare earlier in the week, but how can anyone trust the Texans at this point? They haven't won since Week 6. That's a long time. The Jets, on the other hand, keep winning, but they're not winning big. In fact, they haven't won by more than 10 points since their Week 4 38-14 win over the Bills. Well, I think that stretch ends this week, primarily because the Texans have a dreadful defense. The Jets should be able to put up plenty of points, and their defense should pressure Schaub all game long.
Ravens (-12) over PANTHERS
There's simply no way anyone can side with Carolina. Right?
TITANS (-7) over Redskins
Except for the debacle on Monday night against the Eagles, the Redskins have been a competitive team this season. But with LaRon Landry and Carlos Rogers both expected to miss this week's game, the Redskins and their already-struggling defense are in big trouble. If they can manage to keep this game within 10 points, I'll be extremely surprised.
Lions (+7) over COWBOYS
I find it hard to believe that Jason Garrett has the ability to change the entire culture of the Cowboys locker room, but they did look impressive last week in beating the Giants. Still, they are 2-7 for a reason, so it'll take another win or two -- or at least another week of solid effort -- before I start to take them seriously again.
Packers (-3) over VIKINGS
This line seems too low, doesn't it? But who knows, maybe the 3-6 Vikings will make one last stand at home to at least make things interesting. But I doubt it.
Bills (+5) over BENGALS
A 1-8 team travels to take on a 2-7 team -- not exactly the best game of the day, is it?
JAGUARS (-2) over Browns
I was tempted to take the Browns, but losing Josh Cribbs this week is a huge problem for them. Then again, despite having a 3-6 record, the Browns (-10) have a better point differential than the 5-4 Jaguars (-54). That's something to think about, at least.
CHIEFS (-8) over Cardinals
The Chiefs should have no problem feeding Jamaal Charles, with some carries to Thomas Jones thrown in. Hopefully that doesn't end up the other way around.
SAINTS (-11.5) over Seahawks
The Saints just had a bye week and are getting healthier, and they're also playing at home. The Seahawks, on the other hand, just aren't a very good team; I don't care if they have a winning record or not.
RAMS (+3) over Falcons
Like the Packers-Vikings game, this line also seems a little too low. Unlike that game, though, I'll actually side with the Rams this week, for no apparent reason. Maybe that's why I'm having such a hard time picking games this season.
49ERS (-3) over Buccaneers
With Troy Smith under center, the 49ers are 2-0. And no, I never thought I would write that sentence.
PATRIOTS (-4) over Colts
The Patriots (7-2) are firing on all cylinders lately. Meanwhile, the Colts are 6-3 and are still obviously a threatening team, but something just seems a little off about them. I guess it's all Pierre Garcon's fault.
Giants (+3.5) over EAGLES
Seriously, who knows?
Broncos (+10) over CHARGERS
I have no concrete reason to pick against Philip Rivers, but Antonio Gates will probably be out again. Ten points also seems a little high, but maybe that's just me.
Last week: 4-10
Season: 61-77-6
Friday, November 12, 2010
Week 10 picks
I've got a busy weekend ahead of me, so here are my (quick) NFL picks for Week 10.
Ravens (PK) over FALCONS
I had the Ravens winning this game on the road, and they nearly pulled off the comeback win. But almosts don't count.
COLTS (-7) over Bengals
Texans (+1) over JAGUARS
Titans (-1.5) over DOLPHINS
Vikings (-1) over BEARS
BILLS (-3) over Lions
BROWNS (+3) over Jets
BUCCANEERS (-7) over Panthers
Chiefs (-1) over BRONCOS
Rams (+6) over 49ERS
CARDINALS (-3) over Seahawks
GIANTS (-14) over Cowboys
Patriots (+4.5) over STEELERS
Eagles (-3) over REDSKINS
Last week: 6-5-2
Season: 57-67-6
Ravens (PK) over FALCONS
I had the Ravens winning this game on the road, and they nearly pulled off the comeback win. But almosts don't count.
COLTS (-7) over Bengals
Texans (+1) over JAGUARS
Titans (-1.5) over DOLPHINS
Vikings (-1) over BEARS
BILLS (-3) over Lions
BROWNS (+3) over Jets
BUCCANEERS (-7) over Panthers
Chiefs (-1) over BRONCOS
Rams (+6) over 49ERS
CARDINALS (-3) over Seahawks
GIANTS (-14) over Cowboys
Patriots (+4.5) over STEELERS
Eagles (-3) over REDSKINS
Last week: 6-5-2
Season: 57-67-6
Friday, November 5, 2010
Week 9 picks
OK, so it's Week 9, which also happens to be the Redskins' bye week. Maybe that, for some reason, will give me the spark I've needed to go on a little run. (Probably not.)
BILLS (+3) over Bears
The Bills are the last winless team, but they've still played several close games. In the last two weeks, they've lost to the Ravens and Chiefs, two pretty good teams, by a field goal each. I'm not saying that they'll break through this week, but they certainly have the chance to do so.
TEXANS (+3) over Chargers
A healthy Chargers team is probably better than the Texans, but San Diego will have two things working against them: 1) they're on the road, and 2) they'll likely be without Antonio Gates, arguably their best player. Philip Rivers can still find other receivers, and he's already having a fantastic season, but losing Gates will be one lost weapon too many for this offense.
Saints (-6.5) over PANTHERS
These two teams played a close game in Week 4 (Saints 16, Panthers 14), but I have absolutely no confidence in picking the 1-6 Panthers for any reason. The Saints (5-3) also need this win to keep pace with the Falcons and Buccaneers (both 5-2).
VIKINGS (-8) over Cardinals
Is Brett Favre going to play in this one? Probably, I guess, but either way he should be handing the ball off a ton to Adrian Peterson this week (and every week, for that matter).
Buccaneers (+8.5) over FALCONS
Just a guess here, though I could see the Bucs getting blown out in this one.
Jets (-4) over LIONS
Unlike the Redskins, the Jets will be able to block the Lions' strong defensive line. And that will make an enormous difference.
Dolphins (+5) over RAVENS
The Ravens had the bye week to get healthy and sort things out, but I still think this could be a close game -- maybe one that comes down to a late field goal.
Patriots (-5) over BROWNS
The Patriots have everything working now, don't they? They should be able to get by the Browns without a problem.
Giants (-7) over SEAHAWKS
Charlie Whitehurst will be starting at quarterback for the Seahawks. In a completely related note, I like the Giants.
Chiefs (+3) over RAIDERS
The Raiders have blown out two teams in a row, but neither team could run the ball like the Chiefs can. This is actually a huge game for both teams -- and don't get me wrong, the Raiders have been impressive lately -- but I think the Chiefs are a little bit better.
Colts (+3) over EAGLES
Michael Vick is back; is he completely healthy? Will he show any rust? Still, this game could go either way, though I do think the Colts are better.
PACKERS (-8) over Cowboys
If the Cowboys haven't given up the last few weeks, then maybe they're just really, really bad. Either way, I'll go with Green Bay.
Steelers (-5) over BENGALS
The Steelers only scored 10 points last week. They won't be held down in consecutive weeks, and the defense should be able to force several turnovers in this one.
Last week: 5-8
Season: 51-62-4
BILLS (+3) over Bears
The Bills are the last winless team, but they've still played several close games. In the last two weeks, they've lost to the Ravens and Chiefs, two pretty good teams, by a field goal each. I'm not saying that they'll break through this week, but they certainly have the chance to do so.
TEXANS (+3) over Chargers
A healthy Chargers team is probably better than the Texans, but San Diego will have two things working against them: 1) they're on the road, and 2) they'll likely be without Antonio Gates, arguably their best player. Philip Rivers can still find other receivers, and he's already having a fantastic season, but losing Gates will be one lost weapon too many for this offense.
Saints (-6.5) over PANTHERS
These two teams played a close game in Week 4 (Saints 16, Panthers 14), but I have absolutely no confidence in picking the 1-6 Panthers for any reason. The Saints (5-3) also need this win to keep pace with the Falcons and Buccaneers (both 5-2).
VIKINGS (-8) over Cardinals
Is Brett Favre going to play in this one? Probably, I guess, but either way he should be handing the ball off a ton to Adrian Peterson this week (and every week, for that matter).
Buccaneers (+8.5) over FALCONS
Just a guess here, though I could see the Bucs getting blown out in this one.
Jets (-4) over LIONS
Unlike the Redskins, the Jets will be able to block the Lions' strong defensive line. And that will make an enormous difference.
Dolphins (+5) over RAVENS
The Ravens had the bye week to get healthy and sort things out, but I still think this could be a close game -- maybe one that comes down to a late field goal.
Patriots (-5) over BROWNS
The Patriots have everything working now, don't they? They should be able to get by the Browns without a problem.
Giants (-7) over SEAHAWKS
Charlie Whitehurst will be starting at quarterback for the Seahawks. In a completely related note, I like the Giants.
Chiefs (+3) over RAIDERS
The Raiders have blown out two teams in a row, but neither team could run the ball like the Chiefs can. This is actually a huge game for both teams -- and don't get me wrong, the Raiders have been impressive lately -- but I think the Chiefs are a little bit better.
Colts (+3) over EAGLES
Michael Vick is back; is he completely healthy? Will he show any rust? Still, this game could go either way, though I do think the Colts are better.
PACKERS (-8) over Cowboys
If the Cowboys haven't given up the last few weeks, then maybe they're just really, really bad. Either way, I'll go with Green Bay.
Steelers (-5) over BENGALS
The Steelers only scored 10 points last week. They won't be held down in consecutive weeks, and the defense should be able to force several turnovers in this one.
Last week: 5-8
Season: 51-62-4
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Week 8 picks
Broncos (+2) over 49ERS
This game is in London, so it's a road game for both teams. Last week, the Raiders absolutely destroyed the Broncos, 59-14; however, the 49ers lost to a previously winless Panthers team as well and are now 1-6. These two teams have also been outscored by a combined 110 points on the season. Lucky fans.
COWBOYS (-6.5) over Jaguars
Even without Tony Romo (broken collarbone), the 1-5 Cowboys are still better than the Jaguars, especially at home. Look for a more balanced attack from the Cowboys offense, which should be able to move the ball with ease against an awful Jaguars defense. Then again, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett could always outsmart himself and decide to have Jon Kitna throw 50 times -- you never know with that guy.
Redskins (+3) over LIONS
I'll admit it: This game has me worried, big time. Lots of people are picking the Lions, who are probably better than their 1-5 record indicates. They've been extremely competitive, and thanks to a blow-out win over the Rams, have actually outscored their opponents by six points -- unlike the Redskins who, at 4-3, have been outscored on the season by three points. But just like most people wouldn't be shocked if the Lions won (they're favored, after all), it wouldn't be a huge surprise for this game to remain close throughout and come down to a field goal.
JETS (-6) over Packers
The Packers won't be able to run the ball, meaning Aaron Rodgers will have to do most of the work and spread the ball around to his receivers. Unfortunately, losing both Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley for the season has really hurt this offense, and that will be even more evident today against a solid, attacking defense.
RAMS (-3) over Panthers
Tough loss last week for the Rams, who could really use a win this week to keep pace with the Seahawks. And yes, that sentence is funny to read. Thanks again, NFC West.
Dolphins (+1) over BENGALS
Speaking of teams who need wins, both Miami and Cincinnati desperately need to win this week after losing in Week 7. The Steelers and Ravens are running away with things in the AFC North, so if the Bengals don't win this game, they're going to be in big trouble. The same can be said for the 3-3 Dolphins, who really need a win to keep some pressure on the Jets and Patriots. The Dolphins, oddly enough, are also 3-0 on the road (and 0-3 at home), so look for them to get out of Cincinnati with an important win.
CHIEFS (-7) over Bills
It wouldn't be too difficult to roll with the Bills this week after they nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore last week with an unexpected strong performance. But the Bills are 0-6 and have been outscored by 77 points and are traveling to Kansas City to play a 4-2 Chiefs team that is going to run the ball and make the Bills defense stop their impressive running back tandem of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. And they likely won't be able to stop that from happening, no matter how well Ryan Fitzpatrick plays.
Titans (+4) over CHARGERS
The Chargers really need to win this week, but they also needed to win last week against the Patriots -- or the week before in St. Louis, or the week before that in Oakland. But they have lots of flaws, which the Titans should be able to exploit, even on the road with a banged-up Vince Young back under center.
Buccaneers (+3) over CARDINALS
The Bucs, at 4-2, are overrated; meanwhile, the Cardinals (3-3) aren't that good. I'll take the points.
Seahawks (+3) over RAIDERS
Similar to the game above, though with two better teams. The Raiders had a monster game last week, but there aren't really any signs that they'll ever play that well again. And the Seahawks, though not a great road team, may be the best the NFC West has to offer. Obviously, that's not really saying that much, but they're a decent defensive team who stays committed to the run. These two teams are pretty similar; look for a close game.
PATRIOTS (-6) over Vikings
The Brett Favre ship is sinking, whether or not he plays in this game. I'll admit, Favre is an extremely tough guy who seemingly has an incredible ability to heal quickly and play through pain, but his presence -- and bad play -- have been hurting the Vikings, who really should have a better record than 2-4. The Patriots will take advantage of every mistake Favre, or any other Vikings quarterback, makes this week.
Steelers (PK) over SAINTS
Not much explaining is necessary here. The Steelers are just better.
COLTS (-5.5) over Texans
The Colts and Texans are both 4-2, so this is obviously an enormous game. Both teams had Week 7 byes, so they're each a little healthier heading into this game. Peyton Manning should be able to carve up the Texans' league-worst pass defense, just like he did in a losing effort in Houston in Week 1. But it's not likely that Arian Foster (who has slowed down since then) will rush for 231 yards and three touchdowns again, even if the Colts have just the 26th-ranked rushing defense. Both teams should be able to put points on the board, but the Colts should be able to take care of business against a division rival at home, just like they always do.
Last week: 8-6
Season: 46-54-4
This game is in London, so it's a road game for both teams. Last week, the Raiders absolutely destroyed the Broncos, 59-14; however, the 49ers lost to a previously winless Panthers team as well and are now 1-6. These two teams have also been outscored by a combined 110 points on the season. Lucky fans.
COWBOYS (-6.5) over Jaguars
Even without Tony Romo (broken collarbone), the 1-5 Cowboys are still better than the Jaguars, especially at home. Look for a more balanced attack from the Cowboys offense, which should be able to move the ball with ease against an awful Jaguars defense. Then again, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett could always outsmart himself and decide to have Jon Kitna throw 50 times -- you never know with that guy.
Redskins (+3) over LIONS
I'll admit it: This game has me worried, big time. Lots of people are picking the Lions, who are probably better than their 1-5 record indicates. They've been extremely competitive, and thanks to a blow-out win over the Rams, have actually outscored their opponents by six points -- unlike the Redskins who, at 4-3, have been outscored on the season by three points. But just like most people wouldn't be shocked if the Lions won (they're favored, after all), it wouldn't be a huge surprise for this game to remain close throughout and come down to a field goal.
JETS (-6) over Packers
The Packers won't be able to run the ball, meaning Aaron Rodgers will have to do most of the work and spread the ball around to his receivers. Unfortunately, losing both Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley for the season has really hurt this offense, and that will be even more evident today against a solid, attacking defense.
RAMS (-3) over Panthers
Tough loss last week for the Rams, who could really use a win this week to keep pace with the Seahawks. And yes, that sentence is funny to read. Thanks again, NFC West.
Dolphins (+1) over BENGALS
Speaking of teams who need wins, both Miami and Cincinnati desperately need to win this week after losing in Week 7. The Steelers and Ravens are running away with things in the AFC North, so if the Bengals don't win this game, they're going to be in big trouble. The same can be said for the 3-3 Dolphins, who really need a win to keep some pressure on the Jets and Patriots. The Dolphins, oddly enough, are also 3-0 on the road (and 0-3 at home), so look for them to get out of Cincinnati with an important win.
CHIEFS (-7) over Bills
It wouldn't be too difficult to roll with the Bills this week after they nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore last week with an unexpected strong performance. But the Bills are 0-6 and have been outscored by 77 points and are traveling to Kansas City to play a 4-2 Chiefs team that is going to run the ball and make the Bills defense stop their impressive running back tandem of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. And they likely won't be able to stop that from happening, no matter how well Ryan Fitzpatrick plays.
Titans (+4) over CHARGERS
The Chargers really need to win this week, but they also needed to win last week against the Patriots -- or the week before in St. Louis, or the week before that in Oakland. But they have lots of flaws, which the Titans should be able to exploit, even on the road with a banged-up Vince Young back under center.
Buccaneers (+3) over CARDINALS
The Bucs, at 4-2, are overrated; meanwhile, the Cardinals (3-3) aren't that good. I'll take the points.
Seahawks (+3) over RAIDERS
Similar to the game above, though with two better teams. The Raiders had a monster game last week, but there aren't really any signs that they'll ever play that well again. And the Seahawks, though not a great road team, may be the best the NFC West has to offer. Obviously, that's not really saying that much, but they're a decent defensive team who stays committed to the run. These two teams are pretty similar; look for a close game.
PATRIOTS (-6) over Vikings
The Brett Favre ship is sinking, whether or not he plays in this game. I'll admit, Favre is an extremely tough guy who seemingly has an incredible ability to heal quickly and play through pain, but his presence -- and bad play -- have been hurting the Vikings, who really should have a better record than 2-4. The Patriots will take advantage of every mistake Favre, or any other Vikings quarterback, makes this week.
Steelers (PK) over SAINTS
Not much explaining is necessary here. The Steelers are just better.
COLTS (-5.5) over Texans
The Colts and Texans are both 4-2, so this is obviously an enormous game. Both teams had Week 7 byes, so they're each a little healthier heading into this game. Peyton Manning should be able to carve up the Texans' league-worst pass defense, just like he did in a losing effort in Houston in Week 1. But it's not likely that Arian Foster (who has slowed down since then) will rush for 231 yards and three touchdowns again, even if the Colts have just the 26th-ranked rushing defense. Both teams should be able to put points on the board, but the Colts should be able to take care of business against a division rival at home, just like they always do.
Last week: 8-6
Season: 46-54-4
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Week 7 picks
The main topic of discussion in the NFL this week is pretty obvious: the NFL's decision to ramp up fines and other penalties (like suspensions without pay) to deter defenders from making "illegal" hits on, basically, quarterbacks and receivers. To try to clarify the issue, the NFL sent a video to every team attempting to explain what is and is not considered a legal hit. (The video can be viewed here.) The video clarifies a few things but mainly creates more questions than answers.
After watching the video, only a couple of things are clear (at least to me): 1) if a defensive player aims to hit the head or neck of a defenseless receiver (or quarterback, etc.), that counts as an illegal hit and will likely earn that defender a penalty, fine, and possibly a suspension; 2) helmet-to-helmet contact isn't the only thing that constitutes an illegal hit; and 3) the Brandon Meriweather hit on Todd Heap is the best example of what the NFL is trying to eliminate. The Meriweather hit is particularly singled out in the video as being a blatant illegal hit, and it's also the one hit that I have yet to hear someone describe as unintentional or justified.
The best take I read on the whole legal/illegal hit debate is by Joe Posnanski. The whole article is definitely worth a read, but this part particularly stuck out:
My main concern with the NFL's endeavor is that it's impossible for all of these hits to be called the same way. Every hit is unique, and each game has different referees who will interpret the rules differently. Sure, fines and suspensions will come down from the league office for hits that are ruled to be illegal, but what happens if a player is both fined and suspended for a hit that isn't even flagged for a 15-yard penalty? Also, will intent factor into the legal/illegal hit decision, and is that a smart thing to assume? And finally, does the receiver absorbing the crushing tackle/hit have to be hurt for the defender to be heavily penalized? One major similarity in the video is that the players tacking huge hits seemed to be hurt pretty badly -- not a shock, obviously. Sure, they were involved in huge hits and it's not likely that they'd immediately pop back up, but what if they did? If everyone's fine after a significant collision, does that warrant a penalty?
Basically, I'm just as confused as ever, but maybe it will just take a few weeks for the whole issue to be ironed out. Or maybe it'll continue to linger and won't be solved at all -- especially since football is an extremely violent sport. We'll see.
Onto the picks for Week 7:
Steelers (-3) over DOLPHINS
FALCONS (-3.5) over Bengals
CHIEFS (-9.5) over Jaguars
Eagles (+3) over TITANS
Redskins (+3) over BEARS
Browns (+14) over SAINTS
RAVENS (-14) over Bills
49ers (-3) over PANTHERS
Rams (+3) over BUCCANEERS
Cardinals (+7) over SEAHAWKS
Patriots (+3) over CHARGERS
BRONCOS (-7.5) over Raiders
PACKERS (-3) over Vikings
Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS
Last week: 5-8-1
Season: 38-48-4
After watching the video, only a couple of things are clear (at least to me): 1) if a defensive player aims to hit the head or neck of a defenseless receiver (or quarterback, etc.), that counts as an illegal hit and will likely earn that defender a penalty, fine, and possibly a suspension; 2) helmet-to-helmet contact isn't the only thing that constitutes an illegal hit; and 3) the Brandon Meriweather hit on Todd Heap is the best example of what the NFL is trying to eliminate. The Meriweather hit is particularly singled out in the video as being a blatant illegal hit, and it's also the one hit that I have yet to hear someone describe as unintentional or justified.
The best take I read on the whole legal/illegal hit debate is by Joe Posnanski. The whole article is definitely worth a read, but this part particularly stuck out:
And here is the riddle of football — how can you hurt without injuring, how can you weaken without harming, how can you send a receiver flying backward and have him pop right back up, good as new, Wile E. Coyote gone back to the drawing board? The NFL keeps wanting us to believe that there’s a real answer to this riddle. The league makes the equipment better — or at least that’s what we keep hearing and desperately want to believe. They make the pads more secure, we hear. They make the helmets safer, we are told. . . . The trainers tape every bendable part before every practice and every game, as if the players are windows in the eye of a hurricane — or at least that’s what we choose to believe.Seriously, read the entire article -- it's fantastic. Is it really possible to hurt without injuring? No, it's not. And the NFL knows that too. But that doesn't mean they're wrong about trying to get rid of hits like the Meriweather one.
The NFL tinkers with the rules constantly to prevent the most dangerous of hits — the chop block, the clip, the clothesline, the horse collar, the helmet-to-helmet, the trip, the facemask grab, the forearm shiver, the punch, the unloading on a defenseless receiver and whatever devastating tackle they will come with next. The NFL makes the injuries part of the fabric of the sport so that they sound bland … they even release injury reports each week with the tamest-sounding of conditions — probable, questionable, out. Probable means they’re playing no matter how much pain they’re in. Questionable means they might not play, but they also might. Out means out. Put someone else on your fantasy team.
My main concern with the NFL's endeavor is that it's impossible for all of these hits to be called the same way. Every hit is unique, and each game has different referees who will interpret the rules differently. Sure, fines and suspensions will come down from the league office for hits that are ruled to be illegal, but what happens if a player is both fined and suspended for a hit that isn't even flagged for a 15-yard penalty? Also, will intent factor into the legal/illegal hit decision, and is that a smart thing to assume? And finally, does the receiver absorbing the crushing tackle/hit have to be hurt for the defender to be heavily penalized? One major similarity in the video is that the players tacking huge hits seemed to be hurt pretty badly -- not a shock, obviously. Sure, they were involved in huge hits and it's not likely that they'd immediately pop back up, but what if they did? If everyone's fine after a significant collision, does that warrant a penalty?
Basically, I'm just as confused as ever, but maybe it will just take a few weeks for the whole issue to be ironed out. Or maybe it'll continue to linger and won't be solved at all -- especially since football is an extremely violent sport. We'll see.
Onto the picks for Week 7:
Steelers (-3) over DOLPHINS
FALCONS (-3.5) over Bengals
CHIEFS (-9.5) over Jaguars
Eagles (+3) over TITANS
Redskins (+3) over BEARS
Browns (+14) over SAINTS
RAVENS (-14) over Bills
49ers (-3) over PANTHERS
Rams (+3) over BUCCANEERS
Cardinals (+7) over SEAHAWKS
Patriots (+3) over CHARGERS
BRONCOS (-7.5) over Raiders
PACKERS (-3) over Vikings
Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS
Last week: 5-8-1
Season: 38-48-4
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Week 6 picks
OK, things are starting to get ugly. After a 5-9 week, it's time to turn things around now. Here we go:
Chargers (-9) over RAMS
Too much Philip Rivers.
Chiefs (+5) over TEXANS
I don't know if the Chiefs are for real, but the Texans might not be either. They arguably haven't played a complete or impressive game since their Week 1 win over the Colts.
Ravens (+3) over PATRIOTS
Maybe the best game of the day. I'll take the Ravens; I just think they're the better team.
BUCCANEERS (+5) over Saints
Speaking of teams being for real, there's the Saints (3-2), who, in their three wins, have won by a combined 10 points. Their loss to the Falcons was understandable, but to the Cardinals last week? They may be due for a big week soon, but I don't think it's coming right now.
Falcons (+3) over EAGLES
Tough road game for Atlanta, but I just flat-out think they're better than Philadelphia.
GIANTS (-10) over Lions
The Lions completely dominated a team last week when they destroyed the Rams. Don't expect that trend to continue.
BEARS (-7) over Seahawks
Have the Seahawks played an actual game this year? Why do I feel like I haven't seen any recaps and replays from any of their games? Maybe it's just me. Anyway, I'll take the Bears and that defense.
Dolphins (+3.5) over PACKERS
Aaron Rodgers is going to play despite suffering a concussion last week, but Clay Matthews is listed as doubtful and likely won't be active. Backing a team with an offense with a banged-up quarterback and no running game (and also no Jermichael Finley) to rely on and a defense missing its biggest playmaker? Yeah, the Packers could really use a sound win here, but no thanks.
STEELERS (-14.5) over Browns
Sure, this is Ben Roethlisberger's first game back. But Colt McCoy getting his first NFL start against a stalwart Steelers defense equals big trouble for the Browns.
Jets (-3) over BRONCOS
The Jets are due for a let-down game at some point, but this isn't the game it happens.
Raiders (+7) over 49ERS
I understand the logic here, but backing the 49ers right now in any game just seems silly.
Cowboys (+1.5) over VIKINGS
Ravens-Patriots may be the best game, but this may be the most interesting. The losing team in this contest drops to 1-4 and will be in big, big trouble. I'll take the Cowboys, and I don't really know why.
Colts (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Lots of people seem to be backing the Redskins, and I'm thrilled with that. But the Colts will win this game for two reasons: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Those two will get pressure on Donovan McNabb all game long, something the Packers weren't able to do after Clay Matthews got injured last week.
Titans (-3) over JAGUARS
This seems like a game that could come down to a field goal, but I don't feel confident backing David Garrard in a big game. By the way, did you know he hasn't thrown for over 200 yards in a game yet this season?
Last week: 5-9
Season: 33-40-3
Chargers (-9) over RAMS
Too much Philip Rivers.
Chiefs (+5) over TEXANS
I don't know if the Chiefs are for real, but the Texans might not be either. They arguably haven't played a complete or impressive game since their Week 1 win over the Colts.
Ravens (+3) over PATRIOTS
Maybe the best game of the day. I'll take the Ravens; I just think they're the better team.
BUCCANEERS (+5) over Saints
Speaking of teams being for real, there's the Saints (3-2), who, in their three wins, have won by a combined 10 points. Their loss to the Falcons was understandable, but to the Cardinals last week? They may be due for a big week soon, but I don't think it's coming right now.
Falcons (+3) over EAGLES
Tough road game for Atlanta, but I just flat-out think they're better than Philadelphia.
GIANTS (-10) over Lions
The Lions completely dominated a team last week when they destroyed the Rams. Don't expect that trend to continue.
BEARS (-7) over Seahawks
Have the Seahawks played an actual game this year? Why do I feel like I haven't seen any recaps and replays from any of their games? Maybe it's just me. Anyway, I'll take the Bears and that defense.
Dolphins (+3.5) over PACKERS
Aaron Rodgers is going to play despite suffering a concussion last week, but Clay Matthews is listed as doubtful and likely won't be active. Backing a team with an offense with a banged-up quarterback and no running game (and also no Jermichael Finley) to rely on and a defense missing its biggest playmaker? Yeah, the Packers could really use a sound win here, but no thanks.
STEELERS (-14.5) over Browns
Sure, this is Ben Roethlisberger's first game back. But Colt McCoy getting his first NFL start against a stalwart Steelers defense equals big trouble for the Browns.
Jets (-3) over BRONCOS
The Jets are due for a let-down game at some point, but this isn't the game it happens.
Raiders (+7) over 49ERS
I understand the logic here, but backing the 49ers right now in any game just seems silly.
Cowboys (+1.5) over VIKINGS
Ravens-Patriots may be the best game, but this may be the most interesting. The losing team in this contest drops to 1-4 and will be in big, big trouble. I'll take the Cowboys, and I don't really know why.
Colts (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Lots of people seem to be backing the Redskins, and I'm thrilled with that. But the Colts will win this game for two reasons: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Those two will get pressure on Donovan McNabb all game long, something the Packers weren't able to do after Clay Matthews got injured last week.
Titans (-3) over JAGUARS
This seems like a game that could come down to a field goal, but I don't feel confident backing David Garrard in a big game. By the way, did you know he hasn't thrown for over 200 yards in a game yet this season?
Last week: 5-9
Season: 33-40-3
Friday, October 15, 2010
Santana Moss and Chris Cooley catch a lot of passes
Do the Redskins rely too much on Santana Moss and Chris Cooley? Do defenses fear anyone in the Skins passing attack besides those two? Who is going to step up and be that third receiving threat? Those three questions, and many more, are ones that Redskins fans have likely heard multiple times over the course of the season (and even before the season started, to be honest).
There's no denying that Moss and Cooley are a strong receiving tandem. Heading into this week's matchup against the Colts, Moss (29 catches) and Cooley (23 catches) have combined for 52 receptions for 711 yards and three touchdowns. Donovan McNabb looks for them often -- about 47 percent of his targets are to Moss and Cooley. They've also made eight more catches than the rest of the Redskins receiving options combined (52 to 44). And just to hammer the point home, the next highest reception total on the team is nine by Mike Sellers. So yeah, not that anyone's arguing otherwise, but Moss and Cooley are fairly important.
Is this really a problem? Not necessarily. There's no question that McNabb should be looking to get the ball to Moss and Cooley, especially if other receivers aren't getting open. It would be nice if perhaps Armstrong or someone else develops into a third option to help open the offense up more, but who knows if that's really possible right now with this current Redskins roster.
Anyway, let's take a quick look at other current top receiving duos and see what percentage of their team's receptions they're hauling in.
Percentage of receptions caught by top two receivers
1. Atlanta Falcons: Roddy White/Tony Gonzalez (55.9%)
2. Miami Dolphins: Brandon Marshall/Davone Bess (55.8%)
3. New York Giants: Hakeem Nicks/Steve Smith (54.4%)
4. Washington Redskins: Santana Moss/Chris Cooley (54.1%)
5. Indianapolis Colts: Reggie Wayne/Austin Collie (52.0%)
6. New England Patriots: Wes Welker/Aaron Hernandez (51.7%)
7. Cincinnati Bengals: Terrell Owens/Chad Ochocinco (49.5%)
8. St. Louis Rams: Danny Amendola/Mark Clayton** (48.6%)
9. San Francisco 49ers: Frank Gore/Vernon Davis (48.3%)
10. Oakland Raiders: Zach Miller/Louis Murphy (47.9%)
11. Arizona Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald/Steve Breaston (47.0%)
12. Baltimore Ravens: Anquan Boldin/Todd Heap (46.9%)
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Williams/Kellen Winslow (46.7%)
14. New York Jets: Dustin Keller/Braylon Edwards (45.7%)
15. Houston Texans: Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter (45.0%)
16. San Diego Chargers: Antonio Gates/Malcolm Floyd (43.9%)
17. Cleveland Browns: Ben Watson/Peyton Hillis (43.8%)
18. Denver Broncos: Jabar Gaffney/Brandon Lloyd (43.2%)
19. Pittsburgh Steelers: Hines Ward/Heath Miller (43.1%)
20. Kansas City Chiefs: Tony Moeaki/Dwayne Bowe (43.1%)
21. Philadelphia Eagles: LeSean McCoy/DeSean Jackson (42.9%)
22. Dallas Cowboys: Miles Austin/Jason Witten (42.8%)
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: Mike Thomas/Marcedes Lewis (42.0%)
24. Minnesota Vikings: Percy Harvin/Adrian Peterson (41.8%)
25. Green Bay Packers: Donald Driver/Jermichael Finley** (41.4%)
26. Chicago Bears: Matt Forte/Greg Olsen (39.7%)
27. Buffalo Bills: Steve Johnson/Lee Evans (39.5%)
28. Detroit Lions: Brandon Pettigrew/Jahvid Best (39.2%)
29. Tennessee Titans: Nate Washington/Kenny Britt (38.1%)
30. Seattle Seahawks: John Carlson/Deion Branch* (34.6%)
31. New Orleans Saints: Marques Colston/Jeremy Shockey (33.8%)
32. Carolina Panthers: Steve Smith/David Gettis (33.8%)
* Traded to Patriots
** Out for the season
Now, this list may not mean a whole lot. Some teams don't throw a lot to their tight ends; some teams prefer to throw a bunch of dump-off passes to running backs. Some teams in the top 10 or so are similar to the Redskins in that they don't really have many other options in the passing game. But most of the teams at least have pretty good third and fourth options that 1) simply don't get thrown as many passes and 2) are still good enough to force other teams to account for them and allow their team's top receivers to have more space to work with.
And then, there are teams in the 20s like the Cowboys and Packers who spread the ball around and have plenty of receiving options. Must be nice.
In the end, the Redskins will likely need someone to step up to take the pressure off of Moss and Cooley, but that's not really breaking news. I guess I'm just trying to say this: Both of those guys are really good.
There's no denying that Moss and Cooley are a strong receiving tandem. Heading into this week's matchup against the Colts, Moss (29 catches) and Cooley (23 catches) have combined for 52 receptions for 711 yards and three touchdowns. Donovan McNabb looks for them often -- about 47 percent of his targets are to Moss and Cooley. They've also made eight more catches than the rest of the Redskins receiving options combined (52 to 44). And just to hammer the point home, the next highest reception total on the team is nine by Mike Sellers. So yeah, not that anyone's arguing otherwise, but Moss and Cooley are fairly important.
Is this really a problem? Not necessarily. There's no question that McNabb should be looking to get the ball to Moss and Cooley, especially if other receivers aren't getting open. It would be nice if perhaps Armstrong or someone else develops into a third option to help open the offense up more, but who knows if that's really possible right now with this current Redskins roster.
Anyway, let's take a quick look at other current top receiving duos and see what percentage of their team's receptions they're hauling in.
Percentage of receptions caught by top two receivers
1. Atlanta Falcons: Roddy White/Tony Gonzalez (55.9%)
2. Miami Dolphins: Brandon Marshall/Davone Bess (55.8%)
3. New York Giants: Hakeem Nicks/Steve Smith (54.4%)
4. Washington Redskins: Santana Moss/Chris Cooley (54.1%)
5. Indianapolis Colts: Reggie Wayne/Austin Collie (52.0%)
6. New England Patriots: Wes Welker/Aaron Hernandez (51.7%)
7. Cincinnati Bengals: Terrell Owens/Chad Ochocinco (49.5%)
8. St. Louis Rams: Danny Amendola/Mark Clayton** (48.6%)
9. San Francisco 49ers: Frank Gore/Vernon Davis (48.3%)
10. Oakland Raiders: Zach Miller/Louis Murphy (47.9%)
11. Arizona Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald/Steve Breaston (47.0%)
12. Baltimore Ravens: Anquan Boldin/Todd Heap (46.9%)
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Williams/Kellen Winslow (46.7%)
14. New York Jets: Dustin Keller/Braylon Edwards (45.7%)
15. Houston Texans: Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter (45.0%)
16. San Diego Chargers: Antonio Gates/Malcolm Floyd (43.9%)
17. Cleveland Browns: Ben Watson/Peyton Hillis (43.8%)
18. Denver Broncos: Jabar Gaffney/Brandon Lloyd (43.2%)
19. Pittsburgh Steelers: Hines Ward/Heath Miller (43.1%)
20. Kansas City Chiefs: Tony Moeaki/Dwayne Bowe (43.1%)
21. Philadelphia Eagles: LeSean McCoy/DeSean Jackson (42.9%)
22. Dallas Cowboys: Miles Austin/Jason Witten (42.8%)
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: Mike Thomas/Marcedes Lewis (42.0%)
24. Minnesota Vikings: Percy Harvin/Adrian Peterson (41.8%)
25. Green Bay Packers: Donald Driver/Jermichael Finley** (41.4%)
26. Chicago Bears: Matt Forte/Greg Olsen (39.7%)
27. Buffalo Bills: Steve Johnson/Lee Evans (39.5%)
28. Detroit Lions: Brandon Pettigrew/Jahvid Best (39.2%)
29. Tennessee Titans: Nate Washington/Kenny Britt (38.1%)
30. Seattle Seahawks: John Carlson/Deion Branch* (34.6%)
31. New Orleans Saints: Marques Colston/Jeremy Shockey (33.8%)
32. Carolina Panthers: Steve Smith/David Gettis (33.8%)
* Traded to Patriots
** Out for the season
Now, this list may not mean a whole lot. Some teams don't throw a lot to their tight ends; some teams prefer to throw a bunch of dump-off passes to running backs. Some teams in the top 10 or so are similar to the Redskins in that they don't really have many other options in the passing game. But most of the teams at least have pretty good third and fourth options that 1) simply don't get thrown as many passes and 2) are still good enough to force other teams to account for them and allow their team's top receivers to have more space to work with.
And then, there are teams in the 20s like the Cowboys and Packers who spread the ball around and have plenty of receiving options. Must be nice.
In the end, the Redskins will likely need someone to step up to take the pressure off of Moss and Cooley, but that's not really breaking news. I guess I'm just trying to say this: Both of those guys are really good.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Week 5 picks
Right now, the Chiefs, at 3-0, are the only undefeated team, the Jaguars are 2-2 despite being outscored by 40 points, and because of tiebreakers, the first-place NFC West team is the Cardinals, who have been outscored by a stunning 60 points (which is not only second worst in the NFL, but also nine points more than the 49ers (outscored by 51), who just happen to be 0-4). Not that you needed to be reminded of it, but parity still reigns supreme in the NFL. And the NFC West is still awful, though the Rams look half decent.
On to the Week 5 picks:
RAVENS (-7) over Broncos
BILLS (PK) over Jaguars
COLTS (-7) over Chiefs
Rams (+3) over LIONS
BROWNS (+3) over Falcons
Buccaneers (+7) over BENGALS
PANTHERS (-1.5) over Bears
Packers (-3) over REDSKINS
TEXANS (-3) over Giants
Saints (-7) over CARDINALS
Chargers (-6.5) over RAIDERS
Titans (+7) over COWBOYS
Eagles (+3.5) over 49ERS
Vikings (+4) over JETS
Last week: 6-8
Season: 28-31-3
On to the Week 5 picks:
RAVENS (-7) over Broncos
BILLS (PK) over Jaguars
COLTS (-7) over Chiefs
Rams (+3) over LIONS
BROWNS (+3) over Falcons
Buccaneers (+7) over BENGALS
PANTHERS (-1.5) over Bears
Packers (-3) over REDSKINS
TEXANS (-3) over Giants
Saints (-7) over CARDINALS
Chargers (-6.5) over RAIDERS
Titans (+7) over COWBOYS
Eagles (+3.5) over 49ERS
Vikings (+4) over JETS
Last week: 6-8
Season: 28-31-3
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Championship game picks
Despite the large number of blowouts in the playoffs so far, I can't complain about the matchups in both the AFC and NFC Championship games (especially since the Cowboys and Eagles have been eliminated). The Saints and Vikings were easily the two best teams in the NFC this year, the Colts had the NFL's best record and could still be undefeated if they actually wanted to be, and the Jets have the NFL's best defense and rushing attack and have caught fire at the right time. All four teams deserve to be playing today, and each certainly has a decent chance to get to the Super Bowl.
Here are my picks for the two games:
COLTS (-8) over Jets
To me, the biggest matchup in this game isn't Peyton Manning vs. the Jets defense -- it's the other way around. The Colts are going to do everything in their power to shut down the Jets' ground game and force Mark Sanchez to beat them. Sanchez, as many rookies can be, is turnover prone, and the Colts will try to confuse him and put pressure on him in ways that they didn't show in the teams' first meeting late in the regular season.
In that game (a 29-15 Jets win), which isn't the best example since the Colts pulled their starters early in the third quarter, the Jets only scored one offensive touchdown (a one-yard run by Thomas Jones). Their two other touchdowns came in the third quarter on fluky plays: a 106-yard kickoff return by Brad Smith and a fumble return for a touchdown with backup quarterback Curtis Painter in the game for the Colts. The Jets were able to run the ball (202 yards on 44 carries), but Sanchez didn't do anything out of the ordinary (12-19 for 106 yards).
Sanchez doesn't have to have a big game for the Jets to win, but he does have to take care of the ball and move the chains on more than a few instances. If he plays somewhere in the middle of how he played in the Bengals game (12-15 for 182 yards, one TD) and the Chargers game (12-23 for 100 yards, one TD, one INT), then the Jets should have a shot.
The Jets defense will slow down Manning and the Colts a little bit, but their offense is still going to need to score points. At some point, they may even have to move the ball down the field quickly and won't be able to simply lean on the running game. I just don't think Sanchez can do that in such a big game against a team that's been in this situation many times before.
Colts 24, Jets 13
Vikings (+4) over SAINTS
First, let me say this: I'm pulling for the Saints. I respect Brett Favre and think he's a great quarterback, but I don't want to see him in the Super Bowl.
Back to the game: This has a chance to be a phenomenal playoff game. Now that Percy Harvin has participated in practice, both teams have all of their offensive weapons ready to go (except for Jeremy Shockey, but really, who cares about Shockey?). The Vikings and Saints are both loaded at running back and wide receiver, not to mention that Drew Brees and Favre are two of the best quarterbacks in the game and had fantastic seasons.
Both teams are going to get their points, but I think one of the game's biggest factors is Reggie Bush. He looked awesome last week -- where did that come from? He's always been a threat on special teams, but he was running over Cardinals' defenders and finishing runs in a way that I've never seen him do before. If Bush morphs into that running back threat again, the Saints offense will be almost impossible to stop.
The Vikings, though, looked just as good as the Saints in their 34-3 blowout win over the Cowboys. Favre threw four touchdown passes -- three to Sidney Rice -- and their defense sacked Tony Romo six times and forced three turnovers. Adrian Peterson didn't have a big game (26 carries for 63 yards), but he didn't have to with Favre picking the Cowboys defense apart.
I don't have a particularly strong feeling either way on who's going to win, but I do like that the Vikings led the NFL in sacks with 48 while the Saints only had 35. I expect a ton of yards and points in this game, and one quarterback pressure or sack may be the difference in this shootout.
Saints 34, Vikings 31
Regular season: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 3-5
Overall record: 135-121-8
Here are my picks for the two games:
COLTS (-8) over Jets
To me, the biggest matchup in this game isn't Peyton Manning vs. the Jets defense -- it's the other way around. The Colts are going to do everything in their power to shut down the Jets' ground game and force Mark Sanchez to beat them. Sanchez, as many rookies can be, is turnover prone, and the Colts will try to confuse him and put pressure on him in ways that they didn't show in the teams' first meeting late in the regular season.
In that game (a 29-15 Jets win), which isn't the best example since the Colts pulled their starters early in the third quarter, the Jets only scored one offensive touchdown (a one-yard run by Thomas Jones). Their two other touchdowns came in the third quarter on fluky plays: a 106-yard kickoff return by Brad Smith and a fumble return for a touchdown with backup quarterback Curtis Painter in the game for the Colts. The Jets were able to run the ball (202 yards on 44 carries), but Sanchez didn't do anything out of the ordinary (12-19 for 106 yards).
Sanchez doesn't have to have a big game for the Jets to win, but he does have to take care of the ball and move the chains on more than a few instances. If he plays somewhere in the middle of how he played in the Bengals game (12-15 for 182 yards, one TD) and the Chargers game (12-23 for 100 yards, one TD, one INT), then the Jets should have a shot.
The Jets defense will slow down Manning and the Colts a little bit, but their offense is still going to need to score points. At some point, they may even have to move the ball down the field quickly and won't be able to simply lean on the running game. I just don't think Sanchez can do that in such a big game against a team that's been in this situation many times before.
Colts 24, Jets 13
Vikings (+4) over SAINTS
First, let me say this: I'm pulling for the Saints. I respect Brett Favre and think he's a great quarterback, but I don't want to see him in the Super Bowl.
Back to the game: This has a chance to be a phenomenal playoff game. Now that Percy Harvin has participated in practice, both teams have all of their offensive weapons ready to go (except for Jeremy Shockey, but really, who cares about Shockey?). The Vikings and Saints are both loaded at running back and wide receiver, not to mention that Drew Brees and Favre are two of the best quarterbacks in the game and had fantastic seasons.
Both teams are going to get their points, but I think one of the game's biggest factors is Reggie Bush. He looked awesome last week -- where did that come from? He's always been a threat on special teams, but he was running over Cardinals' defenders and finishing runs in a way that I've never seen him do before. If Bush morphs into that running back threat again, the Saints offense will be almost impossible to stop.
The Vikings, though, looked just as good as the Saints in their 34-3 blowout win over the Cowboys. Favre threw four touchdown passes -- three to Sidney Rice -- and their defense sacked Tony Romo six times and forced three turnovers. Adrian Peterson didn't have a big game (26 carries for 63 yards), but he didn't have to with Favre picking the Cowboys defense apart.
I don't have a particularly strong feeling either way on who's going to win, but I do like that the Vikings led the NFL in sacks with 48 while the Saints only had 35. I expect a ton of yards and points in this game, and one quarterback pressure or sack may be the difference in this shootout.
Saints 34, Vikings 31
Regular season: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 3-5
Overall record: 135-121-8
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Sunday playoff picks (Divisional round)
Well, that was impressive. Both well-rested after first-round byes, the Saints and Colts took care of business on Saturday. The Saints dominated the Cardinals, overwhelming Arizona with 35 first-half points and winning 45-14. The Saints defense was also effective and held Kurt Warner to a mediocre game -- not to mention knocking him out of the game at one point with a huge hit before halftime.
And the Colts shut down the Ravens, 20-3, in another game that seemed decided at halftime (when the Colts led 17-3). Peyton Manning had a solid game (30-44 for 246 yards, two touchdowns, one interception), but the Colts defense was phenomenal, not only holding the Ravens to just three points, but also forcing turnovers, flying around the field, and making solid tackles. The defense forced three turnovers (another was forced by receiver Pierre Garcon on an amazing hustle play to force an Ed Reed fumble after an interception) and held the Ravens to 270 total yards and only 12 first downs. If the Colts defense keeps playing this well, there's no question that they possess strong Super Bowl Odds going forward in the playoffs.
As for my picks yesterday, I went 1-1 (not too bad). I didn't think the Cardinals would get destroyed like that, but I must have underestimated the power of the Superdome.
Here are my picks for the two games today:
Cowboys (+3) over VIKINGS
Which Brett Favre shows up today for the Vikings? And can they get Adrian Peterson going on the ground? I'm not so sure, especially with how well the Cowboys are playing on defense. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no idea what's going to happen in this game.
Jets (+8) over CHARGERS
So which team is better? The Chargers, right? They've won 11 games in a row, they have the better quarterback, and they had a first-round bye. Let's compare some regular season statistics:
Points per game scored: Chargers 28.4 (4th); Jets 21.8 (17th)
Passing yards per game: Chargers 271.1 (5th); Jets 148.8 (31st)
Rushing yards per game: Chargers 88.9 (31st); Jets 172.3 (1st)
Points per game allowed: Chargers 20.0 (11th); Jets 14.8 (1st)
Passing yards per game allowed: Chargers 209.3 (11th); Jets 153.7 (1st)
Rushing yards per game allowed: Chargers 117.6 (20th); Jets 98.6 (8th)
Now, after looking at all that, who's the better team? You at least have to think a little bit harder about it. Obviously, stats aren't everything, but it's certainly impressive that the Jets are very good at running the ball and allow the fewest points on defense. The Chargers, on the other hand, score more points, throw the ball more -- and much more effectively -- and are still decent on defense (allowing 20 points per game isn't bad at all).
So what do we have in this game? The Chargers have a great quarterback and, as they should, love to throw the ball and keep the ball in his hands. But they don't particularly run the ball well. They also have a decent defense and led the AFC in turnover differential (+10). The Jets, on the other hand, have a rookie quarterback who threw 20 interceptions during the regular season, but they have an outstanding offensive line and have no problem pounding the ball until the opposing defense breaks. They also have arguably the best defense in the NFL and the best cornerback as well, who will certainly affect the Chargers' passing attack in some way.
I still like the Chargers, but the Jets might be a little better than many people give them credit for (including me). If Mark Sanchez doesn't turn the ball over and the Jets can force a few turnovers, the Jets certainly have a chance. I think the Chargers win at home, but I'm expecting a close game.
Regular season: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 2-4
Overall record: 134-120-8
And the Colts shut down the Ravens, 20-3, in another game that seemed decided at halftime (when the Colts led 17-3). Peyton Manning had a solid game (30-44 for 246 yards, two touchdowns, one interception), but the Colts defense was phenomenal, not only holding the Ravens to just three points, but also forcing turnovers, flying around the field, and making solid tackles. The defense forced three turnovers (another was forced by receiver Pierre Garcon on an amazing hustle play to force an Ed Reed fumble after an interception) and held the Ravens to 270 total yards and only 12 first downs. If the Colts defense keeps playing this well, there's no question that they possess strong Super Bowl Odds going forward in the playoffs.
As for my picks yesterday, I went 1-1 (not too bad). I didn't think the Cardinals would get destroyed like that, but I must have underestimated the power of the Superdome.
Here are my picks for the two games today:
Cowboys (+3) over VIKINGS
Which Brett Favre shows up today for the Vikings? And can they get Adrian Peterson going on the ground? I'm not so sure, especially with how well the Cowboys are playing on defense. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no idea what's going to happen in this game.
Jets (+8) over CHARGERS
So which team is better? The Chargers, right? They've won 11 games in a row, they have the better quarterback, and they had a first-round bye. Let's compare some regular season statistics:
Points per game scored: Chargers 28.4 (4th); Jets 21.8 (17th)
Passing yards per game: Chargers 271.1 (5th); Jets 148.8 (31st)
Rushing yards per game: Chargers 88.9 (31st); Jets 172.3 (1st)
Points per game allowed: Chargers 20.0 (11th); Jets 14.8 (1st)
Passing yards per game allowed: Chargers 209.3 (11th); Jets 153.7 (1st)
Rushing yards per game allowed: Chargers 117.6 (20th); Jets 98.6 (8th)
Now, after looking at all that, who's the better team? You at least have to think a little bit harder about it. Obviously, stats aren't everything, but it's certainly impressive that the Jets are very good at running the ball and allow the fewest points on defense. The Chargers, on the other hand, score more points, throw the ball more -- and much more effectively -- and are still decent on defense (allowing 20 points per game isn't bad at all).
So what do we have in this game? The Chargers have a great quarterback and, as they should, love to throw the ball and keep the ball in his hands. But they don't particularly run the ball well. They also have a decent defense and led the AFC in turnover differential (+10). The Jets, on the other hand, have a rookie quarterback who threw 20 interceptions during the regular season, but they have an outstanding offensive line and have no problem pounding the ball until the opposing defense breaks. They also have arguably the best defense in the NFL and the best cornerback as well, who will certainly affect the Chargers' passing attack in some way.
I still like the Chargers, but the Jets might be a little better than many people give them credit for (including me). If Mark Sanchez doesn't turn the ball over and the Jets can force a few turnovers, the Jets certainly have a chance. I think the Chargers win at home, but I'm expecting a close game.
Regular season: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 2-4
Overall record: 134-120-8
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Saturday playoff picks (Divisional round)
So last week's games didn't turn out too well for me (1-3 record). Let's see if I can improve on that mark. Here are my picks for today's two games:
Cardinals (+7) over SAINTS
COLTS (-7) over Ravens
Regular reason: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 1-3
Overall record: 133-119-8
Cardinals (+7) over SAINTS
COLTS (-7) over Ravens
Regular reason: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 1-3
Overall record: 133-119-8
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Sunday playoff picks (Wild Card round)
Man, what a disappointing first two games -- and I'm not even talking about completely botching both picks. The Bengals couldn't get anything together in the passing department, and they couldn't stop the Jets' rushing attack either. Rookie Shonn Greene ran for 135 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, and Thomas Jones chipped in 34 yards and a touchdown of his own. Even rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez looked pretty good, completing 12 of 15 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown -- and a quarterback rating of 139.4. Carson Palmer, on the other hand, was under siege all day by the Jets defense and completed only 18 of 36 passes with one touchdown and one interception. But the Bengals still had a chance, and they can thank kicker Shayne Graham for destroying momentum with two missed kicks -- a 35-yarder in the third quarter and a 28-yarder in the fourth quarter.
But even as mediocre as the Bengals played, they still put up more of a fight than the Eagles, who lost 34-14 and allowed Dallas to score 27 second-quarter points. The Eagles allowed 426 yards, including 198 rushing yards -- and Marion Barber only rushed the ball three times. Felix Jones was great, rushing for 148 yards on just 16 carries. But the real problem for the Eagles was their offense; they allowed four sacks, lost three fumbles, and couldn't solve what the Cowboys were doing on defense. Donovan McNabb, who was under pressure all night, didn't have a good game, completing only 19 of 37 passes for 230 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Michael Vick, getting a few snaps in the Wildcat, was responsible for the first Eagles' touchdown, hitting Jeremy Maclin on a 76-yard touchdown pass. Unfortunately, Vick also fumbled and didn't contribute much other than that long touchdown pass. And typically, the Eagles weren't interested in running the ball (13 carries for 56 yards).
As for today, I'm hoping for closer and more competitive games. Here are my picks:
Ravens (+3.5) over PATRIOTS
Packers (-2) over CARDINALS
Yes, I'm taking both road teams, and no, I don't really have a great reason why. I think the Wes Welker injury hurts the Patriots more than they're letting on, and that as long as the Packers offensive line gives Aaron Rodgers some time in the pocket, he can pick apart the Cardinals secondary. But, as yesterday showed, I might not have any idea what I'm talking about.
Enjoy the games.
Regular reason: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 0-2
But even as mediocre as the Bengals played, they still put up more of a fight than the Eagles, who lost 34-14 and allowed Dallas to score 27 second-quarter points. The Eagles allowed 426 yards, including 198 rushing yards -- and Marion Barber only rushed the ball three times. Felix Jones was great, rushing for 148 yards on just 16 carries. But the real problem for the Eagles was their offense; they allowed four sacks, lost three fumbles, and couldn't solve what the Cowboys were doing on defense. Donovan McNabb, who was under pressure all night, didn't have a good game, completing only 19 of 37 passes for 230 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Michael Vick, getting a few snaps in the Wildcat, was responsible for the first Eagles' touchdown, hitting Jeremy Maclin on a 76-yard touchdown pass. Unfortunately, Vick also fumbled and didn't contribute much other than that long touchdown pass. And typically, the Eagles weren't interested in running the ball (13 carries for 56 yards).
As for today, I'm hoping for closer and more competitive games. Here are my picks:
Ravens (+3.5) over PATRIOTS
Packers (-2) over CARDINALS
Yes, I'm taking both road teams, and no, I don't really have a great reason why. I think the Wes Welker injury hurts the Patriots more than they're letting on, and that as long as the Packers offensive line gives Aaron Rodgers some time in the pocket, he can pick apart the Cardinals secondary. But, as yesterday showed, I might not have any idea what I'm talking about.
Enjoy the games.
Regular reason: 132-116-8
Playoffs: 0-2
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