Picking games the last few weeks has been pretty difficult. Seriously, did anyone have Tampa Bay beating New Orleans? And what happened to the Giants last week?
The Saints (though they have clinched home-field) and Vikings have fallen back to the rest of the NFC pack a little bit. In the NFC East, the Eagles have won six games in a row -- they haven’t lost since Week 10 against the Chargers -- and the Cowboys have righted the ship with consecutive wins over the Saints and Redskins after losses to the Giants and Chargers. The Packers have also looked solid lately, with six wins in their last seven games -- the only loss coming when Ben Roethlisberger completed a last-second, 19-yard pass to Mike Wallace to steal a victory. All in all, the six playoff teams have already been determined in the NFC -- the Saints, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, Cowboys, and Cardinals -- and all that’s left to determine this week is final positioning.
In the AFC, things are much more hectic. The 14-1 Colts have already clinched home-field throughout the playoffs, so they don’t have anything to play for this week. The Chargers, Patriots, and Bengals have already clinched their respective divisions, with the Chargers also clinching a first-round bye. (By the way, did you know that the Chargers have won 10 games in a row? How did Norv Turner pull that off? And they’ve beaten some pretty good teams over that stretch too: the Eagles, Broncos, Cowboys, Bengals, and Titans.) As for the final two playoff spots, the Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos, Texans, Jaguars, and Dolphins are all still alive and could sneak in with various combinations of wins and losses among those teams. If the Ravens and Jets win, then they’re both in. But if one or both of those teams falters, look out.
Anyway, for the final time this season, here are my picks for this week:
(Home team is in caps.)
Colts (+8) over BILLS
The Bills are pretty bad; the Colts are very good. But the Colts will be resting many of their starters, not wanting to risk further injuries. However, the bad weather may negate any kind of advantage the Bills would otherwise have on the field, so expect a close game in snowy and windy conditions.
PANTHERS (-7) over Saints
Drew Brees isn't playing. The Panthers have also looked much better with anyone other than Jake Delhomme playing quarterback. Don't be surprised if the Panthers win big.
Jaguars (+1) over BROWNS
The Browns have won three games in a row, beating the Steelers, Chiefs, and Raiders. Oddly enough, their quarterbacks have done almost nothing in those games; they can mostly thank Jerome Harrison and Joshua Cribbs for some outstanding performances. Even though the Jaguars only have a minimal chance to make the playoffs, they still need a win this week to have any possibility of sneaking in. And do you think the Browns can win four games in a row? I don't.
Bears (-3) over LIONS
The Bears looked great last week, so that probably means they'll lay an egg this week. Still, either Daunte Culpepper or Drew Stanton will start at quarterback for the Lions, who seem to be positioning for yet another high draft pick.
TEXANS (-7) over Patriots
How long will Tom Brady play? As of this moment, no one really knows. My guess is that he won't play at all in the second half, which would give the Texans a huge advantage. Houston desperately needs a win to have a chance, and as of this moment they're firing on all cylinders with three wins in a row. If Brady and the rest of the team's starers play the entire game, the Texans could be in trouble, but I don't think that's going to happen.
Steelers (-3) over DOLPHINS
Two losses in a row have all but ended the Dolphins season, but technically, they still have an outside chance to sneak in. The Steelers, though, have more realistic odds, needing a win and only a couple of losses. Unfortunately, they'll still be without safety Troy Polamalu, who the defense has certainly missed. Still, this is a big game, and the Steelers haven't lost many big games lately -- I'll go with Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh.
VIKINGS (-8) over Giants
The Vikings want that first-round bye, and to get it, they'll have to take care of the Giants. That shouldn't be too difficult, especially since the Giants apparently checked out before their Week 16 blowout loss to the Panthers. Brett Favre and crew have looked a little shaky the last two weeks, but expect them to get back to business this week.
49ers (-8) over RAMS
Move along, nothing to see here.
Falcons (-2) over BUCCANEERS
Ditto, though Michael Turner isn't expected to play.
Eagles (+3) over COWBOYS
Now here's an important game. The Eagles would like to earn a first-round bye (with a win and a Vikings loss), while the Cowboys would like to prevent that from happening while also earning that same first-round bye with a win, a Vikings loss, and a Cardinals loss. Both teams are playing their best football of the season, and each would like nothing more than to knock the other down the totem pole a bit. As for my pick, I just think the Eagles are better.
CARDINALS (-3) over Packers
The Packers don't have much to play for, while the Cardinals can clinch a first-round bye with a win, a Vikings loss, and an Eagles loss. How long Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, or any of the other starters will play is anyone's guess. That's always fun.
BRONCOS (-10) over Chiefs
Anything less than a Broncos blowout would be a big surprise.
Ravens (-11) over RAIDERS
Ed Reed returns for the Ravens. Charlie Frye is starting at quarterback for the Raiders. Enough said.
CHARGERS (-3.5) over Redskins
Philip Rivers may not play more than a few series, but it won't matter if the Redskins can't score any points. The Redskins seem to have given up on the season, and just as it happened last year against San Francisco, flying across the country for the last game of the season isn't going to change that.
Titans (-6) over SEAHAWKS
Chris Johnson is going to have a HUGE game.
Bengals (+10) over JETS
I haven't been able to figure out the Bengals all season, so why wouldn't they keep this game close while they have nothing to play for?
Last week: 5-9-2
Season: 126-107-7
Showing posts with label picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label picks. Show all posts
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Week 16 NFL picks
Here are this week's picks:
(Home team is in caps.)
FALCONS (-9) over Bills
BENGALS (-14) over Chiefs
Raiders (+3) over BROWNS
Seahawks (+14) over PACKERS
DOLPHINS (-2) over Texans
Jaguars (+10) over PATRIOTS
SAINTS (-14) over Buccaneers
GIANTS (-8) over Panthers
STEELERS (-3) over Ravens
CARDINALS (-15) over Rams
49ERS (-14) over Lions
Jets (+4.5) over COLTS
EAGLES (-7) over Broncos
Cowboys (-7) over REDSKINS
Vikings (-7) over BEARS
Last week: 6-9-1
Season: 121-98-5
As always, enjoy the games.
(Home team is in caps.)
FALCONS (-9) over Bills
BENGALS (-14) over Chiefs
Raiders (+3) over BROWNS
Seahawks (+14) over PACKERS
DOLPHINS (-2) over Texans
Jaguars (+10) over PATRIOTS
SAINTS (-14) over Buccaneers
GIANTS (-8) over Panthers
STEELERS (-3) over Ravens
CARDINALS (-15) over Rams
49ERS (-14) over Lions
Jets (+4.5) over COLTS
EAGLES (-7) over Broncos
Cowboys (-7) over REDSKINS
Vikings (-7) over BEARS
Last week: 6-9-1
Season: 121-98-5
As always, enjoy the games.
Friday, December 25, 2009
Friday night NFL pick
Just posting my pick quickly since, you know, it's Christmas Day.
Chargers (+3) over TITANS
Merry Christmas -- and enjoy the game tonight.
Chargers (+3) over TITANS
Merry Christmas -- and enjoy the game tonight.
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Week 15 NFL picks
Time for the rest of my Week 15 picks. Here we go:
Patriots (-7) over BILLS
Cardinals (-14) over LIONS
Dolphins (+5) over TITANS
CHIEFS (-2) over Browns
Texans (-14) over RAMS
JETS (-6) over Falcons
EAGLES (-8) over 49ers
RAVENS (-11) over Bills
BRONCOS (-14) over Raiders
CHARGERS (-7) over Bengals
Packers (+2.5) over STEELERS
SEAHAWKS (-7) over Buccaneers
Vikings (-9) over PANTHERS
Giants (-3) over REDSKINS
Last week: 10-6
Season: 115-89-4
Patriots (-7) over BILLS
Cardinals (-14) over LIONS
Dolphins (+5) over TITANS
CHIEFS (-2) over Browns
Texans (-14) over RAMS
JETS (-6) over Falcons
EAGLES (-8) over 49ers
RAVENS (-11) over Bills
BRONCOS (-14) over Raiders
CHARGERS (-7) over Bengals
Packers (+2.5) over STEELERS
SEAHAWKS (-7) over Buccaneers
Vikings (-9) over PANTHERS
Giants (-3) over REDSKINS
Last week: 10-6
Season: 115-89-4
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Saturday night NFL pick
The Colts won on Thursday against the Jaguars to stay undefeated, and now the Saints are looking to do the same at home against the Cowboys. Here's my pick:
SAINTS (-8) over Cowboys
I thought about taking the Cowboys and the points, especially since the Saints have played two close games in a row -- both three-point wins. But the last prime-time game the Saints had at home -- against the Patriots in Week 12 -- was a blow-out, as the Saints went up and down the field at will.
The Cowboys really need to win this game, but it'll be difficult if DeMarcus Ware doesn't play (he's a game-time decision with a neck injury). If Ware is out, will the Cowboys really be able to stop Drew Brees and the Saints' offense? I doubt it.
SAINTS (-8) over Cowboys
I thought about taking the Cowboys and the points, especially since the Saints have played two close games in a row -- both three-point wins. But the last prime-time game the Saints had at home -- against the Patriots in Week 12 -- was a blow-out, as the Saints went up and down the field at will.
The Cowboys really need to win this game, but it'll be difficult if DeMarcus Ware doesn't play (he's a game-time decision with a neck injury). If Ware is out, will the Cowboys really be able to stop Drew Brees and the Saints' offense? I doubt it.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Thursday night NFL pick
One quick Wizards note before making my Thursday pick: When I woke up this morning, I wasn't the least bit surprised to find out that they lost to the Sacramento Kings. Consecutive losses to the Clippers and Kings, while Arenas, Butler, and Jamison all play heavy minutes? Wizards basketball -- where torturing your fans happens!
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Colts (-3) over JAGUARS
The Colts (13-0) have already clinched their division and home-field advantage, but they claim that they’re not going to rest all of their players just yet. Interestingly enough, the Colts listed 29 players on their injury report, with 20 of them listed as probable. The other nine are RB Donald Brown (out), DT Eric Foster (questionable), DB Aaron Francisco (out), DE Dwight Freeney (questionable), WR Anthony Gonzalez (out), OT Charlie Johnson (questionable), DE Robert Mathis (questionable), DB Jerraud Powers (out), and K Adam Vinatieri (out). Still, if the Colts don’t plan on resting the starters in the second half, they should be just fine.
The Jaguars (7-6), meanwhile, could really use a win in this game after falling back to the pack after a disappointing 14-10 loss to the Dolphins at home last week. My question, though, is: How good are the Jaguars? They’ve played some close games, but their seven wins are against the Texans (twice), Titans, Rams, Chiefs, Jets, and Bills. The Texans and Jets are decent, but even the win against Tennessee isn’t all that impressive now because they won when the Titans were still playing Kerry Collins and looking pretty bad. With Vince Young under center, the Titans beat the Jaguars easily, 30-13, a few weeks later in Week 8.
Their offense is ranked 23rd in the NFL in points per game (18.1), 18th in passing yards per game (213.5), and eighth in rushing yards per game (127.8). So, obviously, the best thing the Jaguars do is run the ball, which makes sense because they have Maurice Jones-Drew, one of the most exciting and explosive players in the league.
On defense, the Jaguars allow 22.1 points per game (ranked 20th), 239.5 passing yards per game (ranked 26th), and 107 rushing yards per game (14th) -- not particularly good numbers. But the Jaguars are +3 in turnover margin, so that’s good.
Anyway, Jones-Drew hasn’t rushed for over 76 yards in more than a month. In these two teams’ first matchup, the Colts shut down the Jaguars’ offense in a 14-12 win. Jacksonville only had 228 yards of total offense, but Jones-Drew accounted for 123 of those yards. That wasn’t enough then, and I don’t think it’ll be enough now. I’ll take the Colts.
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Colts (-3) over JAGUARS
The Colts (13-0) have already clinched their division and home-field advantage, but they claim that they’re not going to rest all of their players just yet. Interestingly enough, the Colts listed 29 players on their injury report, with 20 of them listed as probable. The other nine are RB Donald Brown (out), DT Eric Foster (questionable), DB Aaron Francisco (out), DE Dwight Freeney (questionable), WR Anthony Gonzalez (out), OT Charlie Johnson (questionable), DE Robert Mathis (questionable), DB Jerraud Powers (out), and K Adam Vinatieri (out). Still, if the Colts don’t plan on resting the starters in the second half, they should be just fine.
The Jaguars (7-6), meanwhile, could really use a win in this game after falling back to the pack after a disappointing 14-10 loss to the Dolphins at home last week. My question, though, is: How good are the Jaguars? They’ve played some close games, but their seven wins are against the Texans (twice), Titans, Rams, Chiefs, Jets, and Bills. The Texans and Jets are decent, but even the win against Tennessee isn’t all that impressive now because they won when the Titans were still playing Kerry Collins and looking pretty bad. With Vince Young under center, the Titans beat the Jaguars easily, 30-13, a few weeks later in Week 8.
Their offense is ranked 23rd in the NFL in points per game (18.1), 18th in passing yards per game (213.5), and eighth in rushing yards per game (127.8). So, obviously, the best thing the Jaguars do is run the ball, which makes sense because they have Maurice Jones-Drew, one of the most exciting and explosive players in the league.
On defense, the Jaguars allow 22.1 points per game (ranked 20th), 239.5 passing yards per game (ranked 26th), and 107 rushing yards per game (14th) -- not particularly good numbers. But the Jaguars are +3 in turnover margin, so that’s good.
Anyway, Jones-Drew hasn’t rushed for over 76 yards in more than a month. In these two teams’ first matchup, the Colts shut down the Jaguars’ offense in a 14-12 win. Jacksonville only had 228 yards of total offense, but Jones-Drew accounted for 123 of those yards. That wasn’t enough then, and I don’t think it’ll be enough now. I’ll take the Colts.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Week 14 NFL picks and a quick note
Big week in the NFL this week. A few playoff spots are still up for grabs, and the Saints and Colts are both looking to go 13-0 on the season.
Here are my picks for the games this week:
(Home team is in caps.)
Steelers (-10.5) over BROWNS
Already picked this game here. Whoops. The worst thing about this game for the Steelers isn't so much that they lost, but that they were outplayed in every facet of the game by the Browns. If you thought that was going to happen in a must-win game, well, congrats to you. Seriously though, Steelers' offensive line, eight sacks? Come on.
Saints (-10.5) over FALCONS
Packers (-4) over BEARS
COLTS (-7) over Broncos
CHIEFS (+1.5) over Bills
Bengals (+7) over VIKINGS
Panthers (+13) over PATRIOTS
BUCCANEERS (+4) over Jets
Dolphins (+3) over JAGUARS
RAVENS (-14) over Lions
TEXANS (-7) over Seahawks
TITANS (-13) over Rams
Redskins (-1) over RAIDERS
Chargers (+3) over COWBOYS
Eagles (-1) over GIANTS
Cardinals (-4) over 49ERS
Last week: 8-8
Season: 105-83-4
Enjoy the games.
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Not sure if you've seen this yet, but Buck Martinez is leaving MASN to work for the Blue Jays' TV crew. This move came as a surprise to me, but Martinez played and coached in Toronto, so it's not a huge shock that he'd want to go back and call Blue Jay games. And while I don't mind Jim Palmer that much during the 80 or so games that he announces, Martinez is probably the better analyst of the two in the booth. As of right now MASN hasn't named a replacement. But there is one obvious thing to be thankful for no matter who takes over for Martinez: There's no way that any combination of Orioles' announcers will be as bad as Bob Carpenter and Rob Dibble.
Here are my picks for the games this week:
(Home team is in caps.)
Steelers (-10.5) over BROWNS
Already picked this game here. Whoops. The worst thing about this game for the Steelers isn't so much that they lost, but that they were outplayed in every facet of the game by the Browns. If you thought that was going to happen in a must-win game, well, congrats to you. Seriously though, Steelers' offensive line, eight sacks? Come on.
Saints (-10.5) over FALCONS
Packers (-4) over BEARS
COLTS (-7) over Broncos
CHIEFS (+1.5) over Bills
Bengals (+7) over VIKINGS
Panthers (+13) over PATRIOTS
BUCCANEERS (+4) over Jets
Dolphins (+3) over JAGUARS
RAVENS (-14) over Lions
TEXANS (-7) over Seahawks
TITANS (-13) over Rams
Redskins (-1) over RAIDERS
Chargers (+3) over COWBOYS
Eagles (-1) over GIANTS
Cardinals (-4) over 49ERS
Last week: 8-8
Season: 105-83-4
Enjoy the games.
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Not sure if you've seen this yet, but Buck Martinez is leaving MASN to work for the Blue Jays' TV crew. This move came as a surprise to me, but Martinez played and coached in Toronto, so it's not a huge shock that he'd want to go back and call Blue Jay games. And while I don't mind Jim Palmer that much during the 80 or so games that he announces, Martinez is probably the better analyst of the two in the booth. As of right now MASN hasn't named a replacement. But there is one obvious thing to be thankful for no matter who takes over for Martinez: There's no way that any combination of Orioles' announcers will be as bad as Bob Carpenter and Rob Dibble.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Week 13 NFL picks
For some reason, I'm taking a lot of road teams this week. Could be a mistake, but let's see what happens.
BILLS (+3) over Jets
I missed this pick on Thursday. Did you know the Bills’ offense was held to just 194 total yards? Ryan Fitzpatrick finished 9-23 for 98 yards and an interception. And despite being locked down by Darrelle Revis, Terrell Owens still caught more passes (three for 31 yards) than Lee Evans (one for 38 yards).
Eagles (-5) over FALCONS
Rams (+9) over BEARS
Lions (+13.5) over BENGALS
Titans (+7) over COLTS
Broncos (-6.5) over CHIEFS
Patriots (-4) over DOLPHINS
Raiders (+15) over STEELERS
Saints (-10) over REDSKINS
PANTHERS (-5) over Buccaneers
JAGUARS (+2) over Texans
Chargers (-14) over BROWNS
Cowboys (-1.5) over GIANTS
49ers (-1) over SEAHAWKS
Vikings (-3.5) over CARDINALS
PACKERS (-3.5) over Ravens
Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 97-75-4
BILLS (+3) over Jets
I missed this pick on Thursday. Did you know the Bills’ offense was held to just 194 total yards? Ryan Fitzpatrick finished 9-23 for 98 yards and an interception. And despite being locked down by Darrelle Revis, Terrell Owens still caught more passes (three for 31 yards) than Lee Evans (one for 38 yards).
Eagles (-5) over FALCONS
Rams (+9) over BEARS
Lions (+13.5) over BENGALS
Titans (+7) over COLTS
Broncos (-6.5) over CHIEFS
Patriots (-4) over DOLPHINS
Raiders (+15) over STEELERS
Saints (-10) over REDSKINS
PANTHERS (-5) over Buccaneers
JAGUARS (+2) over Texans
Chargers (-14) over BROWNS
Cowboys (-1.5) over GIANTS
49ers (-1) over SEAHAWKS
Vikings (-3.5) over CARDINALS
PACKERS (-3.5) over Ravens
Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 97-75-4
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Week 12 NFL picks
Here are my picks for Week 12:
Packers (-11.5) over LIONS
COWBOYS (-14) over Raiders
BRONCOS (+7) over Giants
Already picked these games here.
Colts (-3.5) over TEXANS
BENGALS (-14) over Browns
EAGLES (-10) over Redskins
Dolphins (-3.5) over BILLS
Seahawks (-4) over RAMS
Buccaneers (+13) over FALCONS
Panthers (+3) over JETS
Jaguars (+3.5) over 49ERS
CHARGERS (-14) over Chiefs
VIKINGS (-11) over Bears
TITANS (-3) over Cardinals
Note: I changed this pick around 2:30 (it's a late game) once I found out Kurt Warner wasn't playing.
RAVENS (+3) over Steelers
SAINTS (-3) over Patriots
Last week: 11-4-1
This week (so far): 3-0
Season: 90-70-3
Packers (-11.5) over LIONS
COWBOYS (-14) over Raiders
BRONCOS (+7) over Giants
Already picked these games here.
Colts (-3.5) over TEXANS
BENGALS (-14) over Browns
EAGLES (-10) over Redskins
Dolphins (-3.5) over BILLS
Seahawks (-4) over RAMS
Buccaneers (+13) over FALCONS
Panthers (+3) over JETS
Jaguars (+3.5) over 49ERS
CHARGERS (-14) over Chiefs
VIKINGS (-11) over Bears
TITANS (-3) over Cardinals
Note: I changed this pick around 2:30 (it's a late game) once I found out Kurt Warner wasn't playing.
RAVENS (+3) over Steelers
SAINTS (-3) over Patriots
Last week: 11-4-1
This week (so far): 3-0
Season: 90-70-3
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Thanksgiving day NFL picks
Just going to post my picks for the three Thanksgiving Day games. Here they are:
Packers (-11.5) over LIONS
COWBOYS (-14) over Raiders
BRONCOS (+7) over Giants
I'll post the rest of my picks for Week 12 on Saturday or Sunday. Happy Thanksgiving, and enjoy the games!
Packers (-11.5) over LIONS
COWBOYS (-14) over Raiders
BRONCOS (+7) over Giants
I'll post the rest of my picks for Week 12 on Saturday or Sunday. Happy Thanksgiving, and enjoy the games!
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Week 11 NFL picks
Just posting my picks for this week. Here they are:
(Home team is in caps.)
PANTHERS (-3) over Dolphins
Already picked this game and lost. Way to go, Jake Delhomme.
Redskins (+11) over COWBOYS
Browns (+3.5) over LIONS
49ers (+7) over PACKERS
Steelers (-10.5) over CHIEFS
VIKINGS (-11) over Seahawks
Falcons (+7) over GIANTS
Saints (-11) over BUCCANEERS
Bills (+9) over JAGUARS
Colts (-2) over RAVENS
Cardinals (-9) over RAMS
Chargers (-3) over BRONCOS
Bengals (-10) over RAIDERS
PATRIOTS (-11) over Jets
Eagles (-3) over BEARS
Titans (+4.5) over TEXANS
Last week: 8-6-1
Season: 76-66-2
Enjoy the games.
(Home team is in caps.)
PANTHERS (-3) over Dolphins
Already picked this game and lost. Way to go, Jake Delhomme.
Redskins (+11) over COWBOYS
Browns (+3.5) over LIONS
49ers (+7) over PACKERS
Steelers (-10.5) over CHIEFS
VIKINGS (-11) over Seahawks
Falcons (+7) over GIANTS
Saints (-11) over BUCCANEERS
Bills (+9) over JAGUARS
Colts (-2) over RAVENS
Cardinals (-9) over RAMS
Chargers (-3) over BRONCOS
Bengals (-10) over RAIDERS
PATRIOTS (-11) over Jets
Eagles (-3) over BEARS
Titans (+4.5) over TEXANS
Last week: 8-6-1
Season: 76-66-2
Enjoy the games.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Week 10 NFL picks
(Home team is in caps.)
49ERS (-3) over Bears
I picked this game on Thursday morning. Nice work, Jay Cutler.
Jaguars (+7) over JETS
I don’t trust either one of these teams. The Jaguars are 4-4, but they’ve lost to the Seahawks (41-0) and Titans and have only beaten the Rams and Chiefs by a combined six points. Quarterback David Garrard has been average at best with an 81.8 quarterback rating, and, believe it or not, has only thrown six touchdown passes (and five interceptions). Maurice Jones-Drew does lead all running backs with 11 touchdown runs, however. On defense, Jacksonville allows 24.8 points per game (24th-most) and isn’t particularly good at stopping neither the run nor the pass.
The Jets, meanwhile, are also 4-4 and have an impressive early-season win against the Patriots. But they also have losses to the Dolphins (twice) and the Bills. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played worse than Garrard, but that’s to be expected since he’s a rookie. Sanchez has a 67.6 quarterback rating and has thrown eight touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. The Jets’ running game has been effective, with Thomas Jones averaging about 88 yards per game; right now, he’s eighth among running backs in rushing yards (704) and tied for fourth in touchdowns (7). As for defense, the Jets are much better than the Jaguars. The Jets allow 16.8 points per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL, and they are the second-toughest defense to pass against, particularly aided by a strong pass rush and also by standout cornerback Darrelle Revis, a shoe-in for the Pro Bowl.
If not for injuries, the Jets would probably cover. But so far, they’ve lost key players like Kris Jenkins and Leon Washington for the season, and linebacker Vernon Gholston is doubtful with an injured hamstring. The Jets’ main focus will be to keep Jones-Drew from having a huge game, though that will be difficult to accomplish. But on the other side of the ball, Sanchez may make a few more rookie mistakes -- and that could be just enough to keep the Jaguars in the game. With two average teams, I’ll take the points.
Broncos (-4) over REDSKINS
If the Redskins had an offensive line to protect Jason Campbell, this would be a pretty even game. But they don’t, and Campbell will be pressured throughout the game -- and he’ll be lucky to escape without an injury. If you don’t believe me, go back and watch the tape of last week’s loss to the Falcons. Campbell was sacked five times in the first half, and even when he wasn’t sacked, he was hit time after time. Most quarterbacks would have mailed it in with a performance from an offensive line like that, so I’ll give Campbell credit: He finished the game and played very well. The entire offense will have their hands full, to say the least.
Bengals (+7) over STEELERS
Is it possible that the Bengals could beat the Steelers and Ravens a combined four times? Sure, but I don't think it'll happen. I think the Bengals keep the game close but that the Steelers pull out the win at home.
TITANS (-7) over Bills
The Titans have looked a lot better since making the move to start Vince Young. They haven’t beaten anyone very good (Jaguars and 49ers), but that’s still two wins in a row after starting the season off with six straight losses. Oh, by the way, the Titans also have the most explosive running back in the league: Chris Johnson. Johnson leads all running backs with 959 yards on the ground, and he averages nearly 120 yards a game. If that isn’t enough, the Bills’ defense allows the most rushing yards per game (173.6) in the league. I’m pretty sure that’s a significant advantage.
VIKINGS (-17) over Lions
Saints (-14) over RAMS
That’s a lot of points, but the Lions and Rams are terrible.
Falcons (-2) over PANTHERS
In the last four games, DeAngelo Williams has rushed for 548 yards. Williams is fifth in rushing yards (768), tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns (7), and tied for seventh in yards per carry (5.2). Unfortunately, Jake Delhomme is still the Panthers’ quarterback. In the team’s last four games, here are Delhomme’s performances:
vs. Tampa Bay: 9-17, 65 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 42.2 QB rating (28-21 win)
vs. Buffalo: 27-44, 325 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 55.6 QB rating (20-9 loss)
vs. Arizona: 7-14, 90 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 94.3 QB rating (34-21 win)
vs. New Orleans: 17-30, 201 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.2 QB rating (30-20 loss)
Besides the game against the Cardinals, Delhomme has been pretty awful. He turns the ball over way too much -- 13 interceptions, second-most in the league -- and the only quarterbacks with worse quarterback ratings in the league are Matthew Stafford, Josh Johnson, JaMarcus Russell, and Derek Anderson.
The Falcons’ defense is decent at stopping the run -- 11tth-best at 119.9 yards per game -- so at some point, Delhomme is going to have to make some plays. If he can limit the turnovers, the Panthers have a chance. I just don’t think that happens.
DOLPHINS (-10) over Buccaneers
The Bucs got their first win of the season last week against the Packers, who just can’t protect Aaron Rodgers. Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman started for the first time of his career in the win, throwing for 221 yards and three touchdowns. But he won’t look as good this week, and Tampa Bay will struggle to stop the Dolphins’ wildcat attack.
Chiefs (+2) over RAIDERS
You can side with JaMarcus Russell if you want. I’ll take the points.
CARDINALS (-9) over Seahawks
The Cardinals actually play better on the road, but the Seahawks have way too many injuries, especially on the offensive line, to be trusted against a better team.
Eagles (+1) over CHARGERS
Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS
Patriots (+3) over COLTS
I don’t really have a great read on these three games, so I’m going to lump them together. Eagles-Chargers is basically a coin flip, though the Chargers have looked much better lately. But Brian Westbrook is listed as probable, and his presence should help Donovan McNabb a bit.
I still think the Cowboys are a little overrated, but it’s hard to hate on them after winning in Philadelphia last week. If the Packers could block for Aaron Rodgers, they’d have a chance, especially since they’re playing at home. But they just can’t do that, and their loss to the Bucs is evidence enough that there’s something wrong with this team.
As for Patriots-Colts, who knows. It should be an extremely competitive game, though.
Ravens (-11) over BROWNS
The Ravens need this game, and the Browns are starting Brady Quinn. Enough said.
Last week: 7-6
Season: 68-60-1
49ERS (-3) over Bears
I picked this game on Thursday morning. Nice work, Jay Cutler.
Jaguars (+7) over JETS
I don’t trust either one of these teams. The Jaguars are 4-4, but they’ve lost to the Seahawks (41-0) and Titans and have only beaten the Rams and Chiefs by a combined six points. Quarterback David Garrard has been average at best with an 81.8 quarterback rating, and, believe it or not, has only thrown six touchdown passes (and five interceptions). Maurice Jones-Drew does lead all running backs with 11 touchdown runs, however. On defense, Jacksonville allows 24.8 points per game (24th-most) and isn’t particularly good at stopping neither the run nor the pass.
The Jets, meanwhile, are also 4-4 and have an impressive early-season win against the Patriots. But they also have losses to the Dolphins (twice) and the Bills. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played worse than Garrard, but that’s to be expected since he’s a rookie. Sanchez has a 67.6 quarterback rating and has thrown eight touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. The Jets’ running game has been effective, with Thomas Jones averaging about 88 yards per game; right now, he’s eighth among running backs in rushing yards (704) and tied for fourth in touchdowns (7). As for defense, the Jets are much better than the Jaguars. The Jets allow 16.8 points per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL, and they are the second-toughest defense to pass against, particularly aided by a strong pass rush and also by standout cornerback Darrelle Revis, a shoe-in for the Pro Bowl.
If not for injuries, the Jets would probably cover. But so far, they’ve lost key players like Kris Jenkins and Leon Washington for the season, and linebacker Vernon Gholston is doubtful with an injured hamstring. The Jets’ main focus will be to keep Jones-Drew from having a huge game, though that will be difficult to accomplish. But on the other side of the ball, Sanchez may make a few more rookie mistakes -- and that could be just enough to keep the Jaguars in the game. With two average teams, I’ll take the points.
Broncos (-4) over REDSKINS
If the Redskins had an offensive line to protect Jason Campbell, this would be a pretty even game. But they don’t, and Campbell will be pressured throughout the game -- and he’ll be lucky to escape without an injury. If you don’t believe me, go back and watch the tape of last week’s loss to the Falcons. Campbell was sacked five times in the first half, and even when he wasn’t sacked, he was hit time after time. Most quarterbacks would have mailed it in with a performance from an offensive line like that, so I’ll give Campbell credit: He finished the game and played very well. The entire offense will have their hands full, to say the least.
Bengals (+7) over STEELERS
Is it possible that the Bengals could beat the Steelers and Ravens a combined four times? Sure, but I don't think it'll happen. I think the Bengals keep the game close but that the Steelers pull out the win at home.
TITANS (-7) over Bills
The Titans have looked a lot better since making the move to start Vince Young. They haven’t beaten anyone very good (Jaguars and 49ers), but that’s still two wins in a row after starting the season off with six straight losses. Oh, by the way, the Titans also have the most explosive running back in the league: Chris Johnson. Johnson leads all running backs with 959 yards on the ground, and he averages nearly 120 yards a game. If that isn’t enough, the Bills’ defense allows the most rushing yards per game (173.6) in the league. I’m pretty sure that’s a significant advantage.
VIKINGS (-17) over Lions
Saints (-14) over RAMS
That’s a lot of points, but the Lions and Rams are terrible.
Falcons (-2) over PANTHERS
In the last four games, DeAngelo Williams has rushed for 548 yards. Williams is fifth in rushing yards (768), tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns (7), and tied for seventh in yards per carry (5.2). Unfortunately, Jake Delhomme is still the Panthers’ quarterback. In the team’s last four games, here are Delhomme’s performances:
vs. Tampa Bay: 9-17, 65 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 42.2 QB rating (28-21 win)
vs. Buffalo: 27-44, 325 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 55.6 QB rating (20-9 loss)
vs. Arizona: 7-14, 90 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 94.3 QB rating (34-21 win)
vs. New Orleans: 17-30, 201 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.2 QB rating (30-20 loss)
Besides the game against the Cardinals, Delhomme has been pretty awful. He turns the ball over way too much -- 13 interceptions, second-most in the league -- and the only quarterbacks with worse quarterback ratings in the league are Matthew Stafford, Josh Johnson, JaMarcus Russell, and Derek Anderson.
The Falcons’ defense is decent at stopping the run -- 11tth-best at 119.9 yards per game -- so at some point, Delhomme is going to have to make some plays. If he can limit the turnovers, the Panthers have a chance. I just don’t think that happens.
DOLPHINS (-10) over Buccaneers
The Bucs got their first win of the season last week against the Packers, who just can’t protect Aaron Rodgers. Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman started for the first time of his career in the win, throwing for 221 yards and three touchdowns. But he won’t look as good this week, and Tampa Bay will struggle to stop the Dolphins’ wildcat attack.
Chiefs (+2) over RAIDERS
You can side with JaMarcus Russell if you want. I’ll take the points.
CARDINALS (-9) over Seahawks
The Cardinals actually play better on the road, but the Seahawks have way too many injuries, especially on the offensive line, to be trusted against a better team.
Eagles (+1) over CHARGERS
Cowboys (-3) over PACKERS
Patriots (+3) over COLTS
I don’t really have a great read on these three games, so I’m going to lump them together. Eagles-Chargers is basically a coin flip, though the Chargers have looked much better lately. But Brian Westbrook is listed as probable, and his presence should help Donovan McNabb a bit.
I still think the Cowboys are a little overrated, but it’s hard to hate on them after winning in Philadelphia last week. If the Packers could block for Aaron Rodgers, they’d have a chance, especially since they’re playing at home. But they just can’t do that, and their loss to the Bucs is evidence enough that there’s something wrong with this team.
As for Patriots-Colts, who knows. It should be an extremely competitive game, though.
Ravens (-11) over BROWNS
The Ravens need this game, and the Browns are starting Brady Quinn. Enough said.
Last week: 7-6
Season: 68-60-1
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Week 9 NFL picks
Something completely random before making my picks: The hit of the week (and possibly the season) last week belonged to Lions rookie linebacker Zack Follett on kickoff coverage against the Rams. If you haven’t seen it yet, here’s the video:
Crazy hit, right? Well, that’s just part of the interesting case of Follett. According to Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders and Shutdown Corner, Follett had an odd (but hilarious) hero while he was playing high school football:
I doubt there's another player in the NFL whose hero is Terry Tate. And that's just unfortunate. On to the picks:
(Home team is in caps.)
Chiefs (+7) over JAGUARS
Are the Jaguars better than the Chiefs? Probably. Then again, it’s impossible to trust Jacksonville. In their last three games, the Jaguars lost to the Seahawks 41-0, beat the awful Rams by a field goal in overtime, and fell to the Titans by 17 to give Tennessee its first win. Maurice Jones-Drew poses a serious threat to the Chiefs on the ground, but MJD has only received the 15th-most carries in the NFL even though he averages 5.5 yards per carry. Try to figure that one out.
Ravens (-3) over BENGALS
Cedric Benson won’t rush for 120 yards this week, and the Bengals won’t accumulate 403 total yards again.
Texans (+8.5) over COLTS
Quick, who leads the NFL in passing yards? That would be Texans quarterback Matt Schaub (2,342 yards), who also is tied for the most TD passes (16). Surprisingly, the Colts also lead the league in fewest points allowed per game (13.0). Unfortunately for the Colts, their defense just lost safety Bob Sanders, cornerback Marlin Jackson, and linebacker Tyjuan Hagler for the season. If the Colts were at full strength, I think a blowout would be in order. But that’s not the case this week.
FALCONS (-10) over Redskins
Nothing much to say about the game, but why do the only people who defend Dan Snyder happen to be on his payroll?
Packers (-10) over BUCCANEERS
Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman gets his first NFL start today for the Bucs against a team looking to destroy anyone after the whole Brett-Favre-comeback debacle in Green Bay last week. Good luck with that.
Cardinals (+3) over BEARS
Neither team can really be trusted, but the Cardinals are 3-0 on the road and 1-3 at home -- and they’re in Chicago this week.
Dolphins (+10.5) over PATRIOTS
Interesting matchup, especially with the Patriots just coming off a bye. This could be a high-scoring game, but I think the Dolphins keep it close.
SAINTS (-13) over Panthers
If the Panthers can design a game plan similar to last week’s with Jake Delhomme only having to throw 14 times (for 90 yards), they could be fine this week. Then again, that would require rushing for over six yards per carry against the Saints, which won’t happen.
SEAHAWKS (-10) over Lions
The Seahawks offensive line is really hurting right now, but that shouldn’t matter as much against the Lions, who have a hard time stopping anyone. Seattle should roll at home.
49ERS (-4.5) over Titans
The 49ers have lost three in a row and return home desperate for a win. The Titans, meanwhile, got their first win last week over the Jaguars and are feeling at least a little bit better with Vince Young behind center. But look for Young to struggle this week as the 49ers make him stay in the pocket and complete passes down the field, which he has had difficulty doing in previous years.
GIANTS (-4.5) over Chargers
The Chargers defense is terrible against the run, giving up 132.1 yards on the ground per game. The Giants offensive line should have no problem opening up plenty of holes for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to run through.
EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys
Tony Romo has put together three solid games in a row, but none of them were necessarily in big or pressure-packed games. That changes this week, though, when the Cowboys travel to Philadelphia looking to take down the Eagles and take control of the NFC East on Sunday Night Football. Romo hasn’t exactly thrived under the weight of big games, and I expect him to again crack under the pressure, especially with the common occurrence of some turmoil in Dallas, this time by underachieving wide receiver Roy Williams, who is making his displeasure known for not getting the ball more.
Steelers (-3) over BRONCOS
The Broncos couldn’t move the ball very efficiently against the Ravens last week, and they won't have an easier time against a strong Steelers defense either.
Last week: 6-7
Season: 61-54-1
Crazy hit, right? Well, that’s just part of the interesting case of Follett. According to Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders and Shutdown Corner, Follett had an odd (but hilarious) hero while he was playing high school football:
"[G]rowing up, Terry Tate, No. 56, the Office Linebacker, he was my hero watching those commercials. I tried to emulate him when I was out there. . . . Junior year of high school, I went to Champs Sports and they sold a Reebok Terry Tate number 56 jersey, and I bought one immediately. We watched all his YouTube clips and he’s bringing the 'Pain Train' and doing the 'whoop-whoop' sound and I used to do it in high school, and I used to blow the horn. It kind of stuck with me a little bit."
I doubt there's another player in the NFL whose hero is Terry Tate. And that's just unfortunate. On to the picks:
(Home team is in caps.)
Chiefs (+7) over JAGUARS
Are the Jaguars better than the Chiefs? Probably. Then again, it’s impossible to trust Jacksonville. In their last three games, the Jaguars lost to the Seahawks 41-0, beat the awful Rams by a field goal in overtime, and fell to the Titans by 17 to give Tennessee its first win. Maurice Jones-Drew poses a serious threat to the Chiefs on the ground, but MJD has only received the 15th-most carries in the NFL even though he averages 5.5 yards per carry. Try to figure that one out.
Ravens (-3) over BENGALS
Cedric Benson won’t rush for 120 yards this week, and the Bengals won’t accumulate 403 total yards again.
Texans (+8.5) over COLTS
Quick, who leads the NFL in passing yards? That would be Texans quarterback Matt Schaub (2,342 yards), who also is tied for the most TD passes (16). Surprisingly, the Colts also lead the league in fewest points allowed per game (13.0). Unfortunately for the Colts, their defense just lost safety Bob Sanders, cornerback Marlin Jackson, and linebacker Tyjuan Hagler for the season. If the Colts were at full strength, I think a blowout would be in order. But that’s not the case this week.
FALCONS (-10) over Redskins
Nothing much to say about the game, but why do the only people who defend Dan Snyder happen to be on his payroll?
Packers (-10) over BUCCANEERS
Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman gets his first NFL start today for the Bucs against a team looking to destroy anyone after the whole Brett-Favre-comeback debacle in Green Bay last week. Good luck with that.
Cardinals (+3) over BEARS
Neither team can really be trusted, but the Cardinals are 3-0 on the road and 1-3 at home -- and they’re in Chicago this week.
Dolphins (+10.5) over PATRIOTS
Interesting matchup, especially with the Patriots just coming off a bye. This could be a high-scoring game, but I think the Dolphins keep it close.
SAINTS (-13) over Panthers
If the Panthers can design a game plan similar to last week’s with Jake Delhomme only having to throw 14 times (for 90 yards), they could be fine this week. Then again, that would require rushing for over six yards per carry against the Saints, which won’t happen.
SEAHAWKS (-10) over Lions
The Seahawks offensive line is really hurting right now, but that shouldn’t matter as much against the Lions, who have a hard time stopping anyone. Seattle should roll at home.
49ERS (-4.5) over Titans
The 49ers have lost three in a row and return home desperate for a win. The Titans, meanwhile, got their first win last week over the Jaguars and are feeling at least a little bit better with Vince Young behind center. But look for Young to struggle this week as the 49ers make him stay in the pocket and complete passes down the field, which he has had difficulty doing in previous years.
GIANTS (-4.5) over Chargers
The Chargers defense is terrible against the run, giving up 132.1 yards on the ground per game. The Giants offensive line should have no problem opening up plenty of holes for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to run through.
EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys
Tony Romo has put together three solid games in a row, but none of them were necessarily in big or pressure-packed games. That changes this week, though, when the Cowboys travel to Philadelphia looking to take down the Eagles and take control of the NFC East on Sunday Night Football. Romo hasn’t exactly thrived under the weight of big games, and I expect him to again crack under the pressure, especially with the common occurrence of some turmoil in Dallas, this time by underachieving wide receiver Roy Williams, who is making his displeasure known for not getting the ball more.
Steelers (-3) over BRONCOS
The Broncos couldn’t move the ball very efficiently against the Ravens last week, and they won't have an easier time against a strong Steelers defense either.
Last week: 6-7
Season: 61-54-1
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Week 8 NFL picks
No game write-ups this week, but here are my Week 8 picks:
(Home team is in caps.)
Broncos (+3.5) over RAVENS
BEARS (-14) over Browns
Texans (-3.5) over BILLS
COLTS (-13.5) over 49ers
Dolphins (+3.5) over JETS
Rams (+4) over LIONS
COWBOYS (-10) over Seahawks
Giants (-1.5) over EAGLES
CHARGERS (-17) over Raiders
Jaguars (+3) over TITANS
Vikings (+3) over PACKERS
CARDINALS (-10) over Panthers
SAINTS (-11) over Falcons
Last week: 8-4-1
Season: 55-47-1
Enjoy the games.
(Home team is in caps.)
Broncos (+3.5) over RAVENS
BEARS (-14) over Browns
Texans (-3.5) over BILLS
COLTS (-13.5) over 49ers
Dolphins (+3.5) over JETS
Rams (+4) over LIONS
COWBOYS (-10) over Seahawks
Giants (-1.5) over EAGLES
CHARGERS (-17) over Raiders
Jaguars (+3) over TITANS
Vikings (+3) over PACKERS
CARDINALS (-10) over Panthers
SAINTS (-11) over Falcons
Last week: 8-4-1
Season: 55-47-1
Enjoy the games.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Week 7 NFL picks
(Home team is in caps.)
49ers (+3) over TEXANS
The 49ers were embarrassed two weeks ago at home against the Falcons. And not only did head coach Mike Singletary apologize to the fans for the loss, but he also guaranteed that the 49ers would get better an play together as a team going forward.
After seeing that, there's no way that the 49ers come out flat against the Texans.
Chargers (-5) over CHIEFS
LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t the same player anymore. Early injuries have limited him to 38 carries right now, but with those attempts, he’s tied for 34th in the NFL with a 3.7-yards per carry average. Make no mistake about it: The Chargers are Philip Rivers’s team now. Right now Rivers is ranked just 14th in quarterback rating (91.8), but he’s had to deal with an average offensive line (he’s been sacked 15 times (seventh most)) and has still averaged the third-most passing yards per game (304).
After an abysmal performance by the Redskins offense last week, the Chiefs are ranked 24th in points allowed per game (24.0). Rivers and the Chargers should easily surpass that number in this game, even with a less explosive Tomlinson.
Colts (-14) over RAMS
Patriots (-15.5) over Buccaneers
Packers (-9) over BROWNS
Three games, similar results.
Vikings (+5.5) over STEELERS
Here’s the Steelers’ list of opponents up to this point: Titans (0-6), Bears (3-2), Bengals (4-2), Chargers (2-3), Lions (1-5), and Browns (1-5). Those teams are a combined 11-23. There’s nothing wrong with beating up on inferior opponents. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh defense is ranked 11th in points allowed per game (18.7). That’s pretty good, especially while playing without Troy Polamalu for a few games. Pittsburgh is still a good team, but I don’t know that I’m particularly sold on them just yet.
The Vikings’ opponents, interestingly enough, also have a combined 11-23 record, but Minnesota has outscored their opponents by 68 points, and the Steelers have outscored their opponents by 40 fewer points (28). For the record, Minnesota’s defense is ranked 18th in points allowed per game (20.2) while their offense is ranked second in points per game (31.5).
Is any of that necessarily compelling evidence? Not really. But a lot of people seem to be picking the Steelers to win big in this game. Not me. I think it’ll be close.
Bills (+7) over PANTHERS
The Bills couldn’t stop the run last week, so the Panthers should be able to run the ball effectively. But they also have Jake Delhomme at quarterback. I’ll take the points.
Jets (-7) over RAIDERS
Oakland played well last week in a stunning upset over the Eagles. But when was the last time the Raiders put together two strong performances in a row against favored teams?
BENGALS (pick) over Bears
Just a hunch here. Nothing more.
Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS
Interesting game. The Falcons are probably the better team, but the Cowboys are coming off of a bye week. I’ll go with the less error-prone quarterback: Matt Ryan.
DOLPHINS (+7) over Saints
The Dolphins’ performance two weeks ago at home against the Jets on Monday Night Football was impressive. They really know how to use the Wildcat offense efficiently. I think the Saints will win, but they’ll struggle a bit to stop the Dolphins’ diversified attack.
GIANTS (-7) over Cardinals
The Giants were embarrassed last week in a blowout loss against the Saints. They won’t perform that way again against an inferior team at home.
Eagles (-7) over REDSKINS
Would I be shocked if the Redskins kept the game close? No. Would I be shocked if they scored more than 10 points? Yes.
Last week: 6-8
Season: 47-43
49ers (+3) over TEXANS
The 49ers were embarrassed two weeks ago at home against the Falcons. And not only did head coach Mike Singletary apologize to the fans for the loss, but he also guaranteed that the 49ers would get better an play together as a team going forward.
After seeing that, there's no way that the 49ers come out flat against the Texans.
Chargers (-5) over CHIEFS
LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t the same player anymore. Early injuries have limited him to 38 carries right now, but with those attempts, he’s tied for 34th in the NFL with a 3.7-yards per carry average. Make no mistake about it: The Chargers are Philip Rivers’s team now. Right now Rivers is ranked just 14th in quarterback rating (91.8), but he’s had to deal with an average offensive line (he’s been sacked 15 times (seventh most)) and has still averaged the third-most passing yards per game (304).
After an abysmal performance by the Redskins offense last week, the Chiefs are ranked 24th in points allowed per game (24.0). Rivers and the Chargers should easily surpass that number in this game, even with a less explosive Tomlinson.
Colts (-14) over RAMS
Patriots (-15.5) over Buccaneers
Packers (-9) over BROWNS
Three games, similar results.
Vikings (+5.5) over STEELERS
Here’s the Steelers’ list of opponents up to this point: Titans (0-6), Bears (3-2), Bengals (4-2), Chargers (2-3), Lions (1-5), and Browns (1-5). Those teams are a combined 11-23. There’s nothing wrong with beating up on inferior opponents. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh defense is ranked 11th in points allowed per game (18.7). That’s pretty good, especially while playing without Troy Polamalu for a few games. Pittsburgh is still a good team, but I don’t know that I’m particularly sold on them just yet.
The Vikings’ opponents, interestingly enough, also have a combined 11-23 record, but Minnesota has outscored their opponents by 68 points, and the Steelers have outscored their opponents by 40 fewer points (28). For the record, Minnesota’s defense is ranked 18th in points allowed per game (20.2) while their offense is ranked second in points per game (31.5).
Is any of that necessarily compelling evidence? Not really. But a lot of people seem to be picking the Steelers to win big in this game. Not me. I think it’ll be close.
Bills (+7) over PANTHERS
The Bills couldn’t stop the run last week, so the Panthers should be able to run the ball effectively. But they also have Jake Delhomme at quarterback. I’ll take the points.
Jets (-7) over RAIDERS
Oakland played well last week in a stunning upset over the Eagles. But when was the last time the Raiders put together two strong performances in a row against favored teams?
BENGALS (pick) over Bears
Just a hunch here. Nothing more.
Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS
Interesting game. The Falcons are probably the better team, but the Cowboys are coming off of a bye week. I’ll go with the less error-prone quarterback: Matt Ryan.
DOLPHINS (+7) over Saints
The Dolphins’ performance two weeks ago at home against the Jets on Monday Night Football was impressive. They really know how to use the Wildcat offense efficiently. I think the Saints will win, but they’ll struggle a bit to stop the Dolphins’ diversified attack.
GIANTS (-7) over Cardinals
The Giants were embarrassed last week in a blowout loss against the Saints. They won’t perform that way again against an inferior team at home.
Eagles (-7) over REDSKINS
Would I be shocked if the Redskins kept the game close? No. Would I be shocked if they scored more than 10 points? Yes.
Last week: 6-8
Season: 47-43
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Week 6 NFL picks
(Home team is in caps.)
One-sentence takes on each game:
Chiefs (+6) over REDSKINS
All five Redskins games have been decided by six points or fewer.
Texans (+5.5) over BENGALS
Interesting game -- the Bengals are 4-1, but they’ve outscored their opponents in those four wins by a combined 16 points.
STEELERS (-14) over Browns
Pittsburgh has to blow out a bad team at some point, right?
VIKINGS (-3) over Ravens
Unfortunately for Baltimore, with Jared Gaither out, rookie Michael Oher shifts to left tackle to square off against Jared Allen.
JAGUARS (-10) over Rams
The Rams have been outscored by 112 points -- worst in the NFL.
Giants (+3) over SAINTS
Tough call -- nothing more than a guess here.
BUCCANEERS (+3) over Panthers
The Panthers won last week, but Jake Delhomme is still pretty bad.
PACKERS (-14) over Lions
The Packers have an awful offensive line, but it shouldn’t matter this week against Detroit.
Eagles (-14.5) over RAIDERS
The Eagles have Donovan McNabb; the Raiders have JaMarcus Russell.
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Cardinals
Anything can happen in the NFC West, but the Seahawks looked pretty good last week with Matt Hasselbeck back under center.
JETS (-10) over Bills
When a team (Buffalo) loses 6-3 at home to a quarterback who completed two of 17 passes for 23 yards the previous week, it’s pretty tough to pick them no matter who they play.
PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Titans
I was all set to take the points until finding out that Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan will miss the game, meaning Tennessee will be without their two top cornerbacks.
FALCONS (-3.5) over Bears
Solid matchup between 3-1 teams, but the Falcons are better.
Broncos (+3.5) over CHARGERS
I’ll stop picking against the Broncos when they lose a game.
Last week: 8-6
Season: 41-35
One-sentence takes on each game:
Chiefs (+6) over REDSKINS
All five Redskins games have been decided by six points or fewer.
Texans (+5.5) over BENGALS
Interesting game -- the Bengals are 4-1, but they’ve outscored their opponents in those four wins by a combined 16 points.
STEELERS (-14) over Browns
Pittsburgh has to blow out a bad team at some point, right?
VIKINGS (-3) over Ravens
Unfortunately for Baltimore, with Jared Gaither out, rookie Michael Oher shifts to left tackle to square off against Jared Allen.
JAGUARS (-10) over Rams
The Rams have been outscored by 112 points -- worst in the NFL.
Giants (+3) over SAINTS
Tough call -- nothing more than a guess here.
BUCCANEERS (+3) over Panthers
The Panthers won last week, but Jake Delhomme is still pretty bad.
PACKERS (-14) over Lions
The Packers have an awful offensive line, but it shouldn’t matter this week against Detroit.
Eagles (-14.5) over RAIDERS
The Eagles have Donovan McNabb; the Raiders have JaMarcus Russell.
SEAHAWKS (-3) over Cardinals
Anything can happen in the NFC West, but the Seahawks looked pretty good last week with Matt Hasselbeck back under center.
JETS (-10) over Bills
When a team (Buffalo) loses 6-3 at home to a quarterback who completed two of 17 passes for 23 yards the previous week, it’s pretty tough to pick them no matter who they play.
PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Titans
I was all set to take the points until finding out that Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan will miss the game, meaning Tennessee will be without their two top cornerbacks.
FALCONS (-3.5) over Bears
Solid matchup between 3-1 teams, but the Falcons are better.
Broncos (+3.5) over CHARGERS
I’ll stop picking against the Broncos when they lose a game.
Last week: 8-6
Season: 41-35
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Week 5 NFL picks
(Home team is in caps.)
Vikings (-11) over RAMS
OK, so did anyone think that Brett Favre would start the season playing this well? I didn’t. Through four games, Favre is third in the NFL in quarterback rating (104.7) and has an 8-1 TD/INT ratio. He isn’t being asked to throw a ton, but with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, he doesn’t have to. If his arm/shoulder/back/whatever can hold up for the entire season, and with the way Peterson and the Minnesota defense is playing, the Vikings (4-0) look like they’ll be a legitimate contender when playoff time rolls around.
Oh, and they play an 0-4 Rams team that has already been outscored by 84 points and will probably have Kyle Boller under center.
CHIEFS (+8.5) over Cowboys
Through four games, here are some quarterbacks with better QB ratings than Tony Romo: Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, Shaun Hill, Jay Cutler, David Garrard, Kevin Kolb, Jason Campbell, Seneca Wallace, and Matt Cassel. Again, it’s early, but Romo is 21st in the league in QB rating and has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions -- not exactly a strong start to the season. Not to be left out, Roy Williams (11 catches, 214 yards, one touchdown) has had a decent start to the season, but he hasn’t yet rewarded the Cowboys for trading three 2009 draft picks to the Lions for him.
Dallas, by the way, will be playing this game without Williams, Felix Jones, and starting safety Gerald Sensabaugh. I think Dallas win, but it may be close.
Redskins (+4.5) over PANTHERS
Both teams have struggled; I’ll take the points, I guess. One thing worries me though: At some point, Steve Smith (15 catches, 190 yards) has to get tired of hearing about being “the second-best Steve Smith in the NFL” this year and dominate a game or two, right? Hopefully that doesn’t happen today.
EAGLES (-15.5) over Buccaneers
GIANTS (-16) over Raiders
These two games are similar -- and that’s a lot of points. But who feels comfortable going with the Bucs or Raiders right now, even to cover? The early bye week gave the Eagles an opportunity to get healthy, and Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook both return this week. Eli Manning is also set to play despite a foot injury, and the Giants’ defense should have no problem frustrating JaMarcus Russell and company.
BILLS (-6) over Browns
Seriously, who knows? Derek Anderson played well last week, but I can’t trust him on the road, even against the Bills.
RAVENS (-8.5) over Bengals
The Bengals almost lost to the Browns last week. Meanwhile, the Ravens went on the road to New England and were a few tough penalty calls and a dropped fourth-down pass away from having an excellent chance to upset the Patriots. I think the Ravens will play with a little extra fire today and have a huge game.
Steelers (-10.5) over LIONS
With consecutive games against the Lions and Browns, the Steelers have a great chance to get to 4-2 heading into a Week 7 showdown with the Vikings. Mike Tomlin can’t be happy with the how the Steelers have finished games lately; look for that to change this week.
Falcons (+3) over 49ERS
Just a hunch.
Patriots (-3) over BRONCOS
Ditto.
Texans (+5.5) over CARDINALS
There’s no reason to think that this won’t be a high-scoring game. I’m a little afraid of Larry Fitzgerald (17 catches, 181 yards, two touchdowns) dominating and having a breakout game, especially since he hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game yet.
SEAHAWKS (-2) over Jaguars
Random note: Did you know the Jaguars were 2-2? Not that it matters, but I thought they were 1-3 for some reason. Good for them.
Seattle gets Matt Hasselbeck back this week, so I’ll go with the Seahawks at home.
Colts (-4.5) over TITANS
Not that it warrants concern, but I don’t think I’ve seen one person pick the Titans this week.
What the heck happened to Tennessee’s defense? Last year after ranking second and giving up just 14.6 points per game, the Titans are tied for 26th (with the Rams) in points allowed per game (27). Losing Albert Haynesworth certainly had to hurt, but it’s something more than that. They still have nine sacks, a decent amount, and are seventh-best in stopping the run, but they’ve been horrible against the pass -- tied for the worst in the NFL with the Jaguars. Anyway, don’t look for that to change much this week going against Peyton Manning.
Jets (-2) over DOLPHINS
The Jets’ defense has done a pretty good job of limiting the effectiveness of some pretty good quarterbacks: Matt Schaub in Week 1, Tom Brady in Week 2, and Drew Brees in Week 4. This week they get Chad Henne on Monday Night Football. They should force some turnovers and make things easier for Mark Sanchez.
Last week: 5-9
Season: 33-29
Vikings (-11) over RAMS
OK, so did anyone think that Brett Favre would start the season playing this well? I didn’t. Through four games, Favre is third in the NFL in quarterback rating (104.7) and has an 8-1 TD/INT ratio. He isn’t being asked to throw a ton, but with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, he doesn’t have to. If his arm/shoulder/back/whatever can hold up for the entire season, and with the way Peterson and the Minnesota defense is playing, the Vikings (4-0) look like they’ll be a legitimate contender when playoff time rolls around.
Oh, and they play an 0-4 Rams team that has already been outscored by 84 points and will probably have Kyle Boller under center.
CHIEFS (+8.5) over Cowboys
Through four games, here are some quarterbacks with better QB ratings than Tony Romo: Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, Shaun Hill, Jay Cutler, David Garrard, Kevin Kolb, Jason Campbell, Seneca Wallace, and Matt Cassel. Again, it’s early, but Romo is 21st in the league in QB rating and has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions -- not exactly a strong start to the season. Not to be left out, Roy Williams (11 catches, 214 yards, one touchdown) has had a decent start to the season, but he hasn’t yet rewarded the Cowboys for trading three 2009 draft picks to the Lions for him.
Dallas, by the way, will be playing this game without Williams, Felix Jones, and starting safety Gerald Sensabaugh. I think Dallas win, but it may be close.
Redskins (+4.5) over PANTHERS
Both teams have struggled; I’ll take the points, I guess. One thing worries me though: At some point, Steve Smith (15 catches, 190 yards) has to get tired of hearing about being “the second-best Steve Smith in the NFL” this year and dominate a game or two, right? Hopefully that doesn’t happen today.
EAGLES (-15.5) over Buccaneers
GIANTS (-16) over Raiders
These two games are similar -- and that’s a lot of points. But who feels comfortable going with the Bucs or Raiders right now, even to cover? The early bye week gave the Eagles an opportunity to get healthy, and Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook both return this week. Eli Manning is also set to play despite a foot injury, and the Giants’ defense should have no problem frustrating JaMarcus Russell and company.
BILLS (-6) over Browns
Seriously, who knows? Derek Anderson played well last week, but I can’t trust him on the road, even against the Bills.
RAVENS (-8.5) over Bengals
The Bengals almost lost to the Browns last week. Meanwhile, the Ravens went on the road to New England and were a few tough penalty calls and a dropped fourth-down pass away from having an excellent chance to upset the Patriots. I think the Ravens will play with a little extra fire today and have a huge game.
Steelers (-10.5) over LIONS
With consecutive games against the Lions and Browns, the Steelers have a great chance to get to 4-2 heading into a Week 7 showdown with the Vikings. Mike Tomlin can’t be happy with the how the Steelers have finished games lately; look for that to change this week.
Falcons (+3) over 49ERS
Just a hunch.
Patriots (-3) over BRONCOS
Ditto.
Texans (+5.5) over CARDINALS
There’s no reason to think that this won’t be a high-scoring game. I’m a little afraid of Larry Fitzgerald (17 catches, 181 yards, two touchdowns) dominating and having a breakout game, especially since he hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game yet.
SEAHAWKS (-2) over Jaguars
Random note: Did you know the Jaguars were 2-2? Not that it matters, but I thought they were 1-3 for some reason. Good for them.
Seattle gets Matt Hasselbeck back this week, so I’ll go with the Seahawks at home.
Colts (-4.5) over TITANS
Not that it warrants concern, but I don’t think I’ve seen one person pick the Titans this week.
What the heck happened to Tennessee’s defense? Last year after ranking second and giving up just 14.6 points per game, the Titans are tied for 26th (with the Rams) in points allowed per game (27). Losing Albert Haynesworth certainly had to hurt, but it’s something more than that. They still have nine sacks, a decent amount, and are seventh-best in stopping the run, but they’ve been horrible against the pass -- tied for the worst in the NFL with the Jaguars. Anyway, don’t look for that to change much this week going against Peyton Manning.
Jets (-2) over DOLPHINS
The Jets’ defense has done a pretty good job of limiting the effectiveness of some pretty good quarterbacks: Matt Schaub in Week 1, Tom Brady in Week 2, and Drew Brees in Week 4. This week they get Chad Henne on Monday Night Football. They should force some turnovers and make things easier for Mark Sanchez.
Last week: 5-9
Season: 33-29
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Week 4 NFL picks
I don't have the time to break down the matchups this weekend, so here are my Week 4 picks (with a little note on the Redskins game):
(Home team is in caps.)
Buccaneers (+8.5) over REDSKINS
Until the Redskins do two things -- 1) improve their scoring in the red zone and 2) get opposing offenses off the field on third downs -- they shouldn’t be favored over anyone by more than a touchdown.
(Side note: If anyone goes to the game today with a bag over his or her head like the Junkies have been suggesting fans do all weekend, then those fans are even bigger losers than the Redskins for losing to the Lions.)
Raiders (+8.5) over TEXANS
Titans (-3.5) over JAGUARS
Ravens (+1.5) over PATRIOTS
Bengals (-6.5) over BROWNS
Giants (-8.5) over CHIEFS
BEARS (-9.5) over Lions
COLTS (-10.5) over Seahawks
Jets (+7.5) over SAINTS
Bills (+1.5) over DOLPHINS
49ERS (-9.5) over Rams
Cowboys (-3.5) over BRONCOS
Chargers (+6.5) over STEELERS
Packers (+4.5) over VIKINGS
Last week: 9-7
Season: 28-20
(Home team is in caps.)
Buccaneers (+8.5) over REDSKINS
Until the Redskins do two things -- 1) improve their scoring in the red zone and 2) get opposing offenses off the field on third downs -- they shouldn’t be favored over anyone by more than a touchdown.
(Side note: If anyone goes to the game today with a bag over his or her head like the Junkies have been suggesting fans do all weekend, then those fans are even bigger losers than the Redskins for losing to the Lions.)
Raiders (+8.5) over TEXANS
Titans (-3.5) over JAGUARS
Ravens (+1.5) over PATRIOTS
Bengals (-6.5) over BROWNS
Giants (-8.5) over CHIEFS
BEARS (-9.5) over Lions
COLTS (-10.5) over Seahawks
Jets (+7.5) over SAINTS
Bills (+1.5) over DOLPHINS
49ERS (-9.5) over Rams
Cowboys (-3.5) over BRONCOS
Chargers (+6.5) over STEELERS
Packers (+4.5) over VIKINGS
Last week: 9-7
Season: 28-20
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Week 3 NFL picks
(Home team is in caps.)
Titans (+2.5) over JETS
Are the Titans (0-2) really that bad? And are the Jets (2-0) really that good?
The Titans’ two losses have been by three points each, so it’s not like they’re getting blown out. But they have struggled to stop the pass: They’ve given up 678 passing yards -- worst in the NFL. But they can stop the run: Opponents have gained only 99 yards on 52 rushing attempts -- a 1.9-yard average (best in the NFL). The Titans also have the explosive Chris Johnson, who ran for 197 yards and two touchdowns and caught nine passes for 87 yards and a touchdown in last week’s high-scoring loss to the Texans.
The Jets, meanwhile, have yet to give up 10 points in a game against two strong offensive teams (the Texans and Patriots) and are ranked first in yardage allowed per game (241) and second in points allowed per game (8). Mark Sanchez has also done well in his first two NFL games, throwing for 435 yards and two touchdowns (and one interception).
The Titans are going to force Sanchez to have another strong game and will try to put lots of pressure on the rookie. And the Jets will try to contain Chris Johnson. I think Sanchez is due for a bad game and that the Titans are due for a win. I like the Titans in a close game on the road to get in the win column.
TEXANS (-3.5) over Jaguars
The Texans couldn’t stop Chris Johnson last week, but they still won. This week they face the Jaguars and Maurice Jones-Drew, who is similar to Johnson. They’d like to stop Jones-Drew, but it’s not really necessary if the Jaguars’ defense can’t stop Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Steve Slaton. I expect another shootout, but the Texans come out with another win.
RAVENS (-13.5) over Browns
The Browns won’t be able to run the ball, so they’ll need Brady Quinn to come through against the Ravens’ defense -- good luck with that.
Giants (-6.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs are really a different team now than they’ve been in the last few years -- and that’s not a good thing. Their defense hasn’t stopped anyone, but they can put some points up on the board. The Giants, on the other hand, have a pretty balanced team. The offense is seventh in points per game (28), and the defense is 21st in points allowed (24), though that number will go down. The defense has also forced six turnovers, converting two of them for touchdowns. Byron Leftwich will need to take care of the ball for the Bucs, but he’ll be under pressure all game from a strong Giants’ defensive line.
EAGLES (-7.5) over Chiefs
The Eagles let the Saints embarrass them at home last week. The high-powered Saints’ offense put up 48 points on a decent Eagles’ defense, but then again, New Orleans is going to score a lot of points on everyone. Still, the Eagles’ defense has to be angry and will be looking to attack Matt Cassel.
Redskins (-6.5) over LIONS
The Redskins have heard criticism from all angles this week. Fans have been jumping off the Jim Zorn bandwagon in droves, and all of this is coming after a win -- granted, an ugly win -- but a win, nonetheless. Now, the offense doesn’t deserve any praise until it starts scoring touchdowns, but the defense has been pretty good -- special teams too. Anyway, more than enough experts (Mike Florio, Michael Wilbon, Don Banks, Peter King, Eric Allen, Mike Golic, Seth Wickersham, Jason Cole, Charles Robinson, Michael Silver, and Bill Simmons (taking the points)) are picking against the Redskins this week, choosing to side with a team that has lost 19 games in a row. I think the Redskins are angry and that they play that way this week -- and finally put a decent amount of points up on a bad defense. With that being said, a loss to the Lions would be really, really bad.
Packers (-6.5) over RAMS
In two weeks, the Packers’ offensive line has allowed 10 sacks. Yes, 10. The Rams, though, have only registered one sack (against Washington). Defensive ends Leonard Little and Chris Long have the potential to get to the quarterback, but neither has done so yet. If the line gives Aaron Rodgers time, he should be able to shred the Rams’ secondary -- but that’s a big if. Still, if I were doing any Online Betting, I'd take the Packers on the road.
49ers (+7.5) over VIKINGS
Just a hunch. The Vikings still win, though.
Falcons (+4.5) over PATRIOTS
The Patriots (1-1) should be 0-2, and if they lose at home to Atlanta this week, they’ll be 1-2 heading into a Week 4 showdown with Baltimore. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 2-0, have forced six turnovers on defense, and have looked solid on both sides of the ball. I’ll take the points.
Bears (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS
Seneca Wallace is 5-7 for his career as a starter and has a career quarterback rating of 83.0. That’s not too bad, but I’ll still take the Bears.
Saints (-6.5) over BILLS
Now is not the time to pick against Drew Brees.
CHARGERS (-6.5) over Dolphins
The Dolphins (0-2) need a win, but I don’t see the Chargers losing two in a row at home.
Steelers (-3.5) over BENGALS
The Steelers haven’t lost to the Bengals under Mike Tomlin, and the games haven’t been close either.
RAIDERS (+2.5) over Broncos
The Broncos have done a pretty good job of stopping the run so far -- 10th in the NFL at 70 yards allowed per game. Their defense has also only allowed 6.5 points per game -- best in the NFL -- though that’s mainly because they’ve played the Bengals and the Browns.
JaMarcus Russell has been awful so far (46.6 quarterback rating, 35.2 percent completion percentage), so the Raiders don’t have much of a choice other than to focus on the running game with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.
I think the Raiders will be able to run the ball, so I’ll go with them. However, this is certainly an important game for the Broncos, who have a chance to go 3-0 before their schedule starts to get much more difficult.
Colts (+2.5) over CARDINALS
The Colts have beaten the Jaguars and Dolphins by a combined six points. They can’t really run the ball, and their defense hasn’t looked that great either. But Peyton Manning has been the best quarterback in the league not named Drew Brees through the first two weeks, and doing any Monday Night Football Betting against him would be very difficult. He usually shines in prime time, especially last week against the Dolphins.
Panthers (+8.5) over COWBOYS
Surprisingly, the Cowboys’ defense has yet to force a turnover or pick up a sack. Then again, facing Jake Delhomme should change that. Anyway, expect a lot of points and a competitive game.
Last week: 9-7
Season: 19-13
Titans (+2.5) over JETS
Are the Titans (0-2) really that bad? And are the Jets (2-0) really that good?
The Titans’ two losses have been by three points each, so it’s not like they’re getting blown out. But they have struggled to stop the pass: They’ve given up 678 passing yards -- worst in the NFL. But they can stop the run: Opponents have gained only 99 yards on 52 rushing attempts -- a 1.9-yard average (best in the NFL). The Titans also have the explosive Chris Johnson, who ran for 197 yards and two touchdowns and caught nine passes for 87 yards and a touchdown in last week’s high-scoring loss to the Texans.
The Jets, meanwhile, have yet to give up 10 points in a game against two strong offensive teams (the Texans and Patriots) and are ranked first in yardage allowed per game (241) and second in points allowed per game (8). Mark Sanchez has also done well in his first two NFL games, throwing for 435 yards and two touchdowns (and one interception).
The Titans are going to force Sanchez to have another strong game and will try to put lots of pressure on the rookie. And the Jets will try to contain Chris Johnson. I think Sanchez is due for a bad game and that the Titans are due for a win. I like the Titans in a close game on the road to get in the win column.
TEXANS (-3.5) over Jaguars
The Texans couldn’t stop Chris Johnson last week, but they still won. This week they face the Jaguars and Maurice Jones-Drew, who is similar to Johnson. They’d like to stop Jones-Drew, but it’s not really necessary if the Jaguars’ defense can’t stop Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Steve Slaton. I expect another shootout, but the Texans come out with another win.
RAVENS (-13.5) over Browns
The Browns won’t be able to run the ball, so they’ll need Brady Quinn to come through against the Ravens’ defense -- good luck with that.
Giants (-6.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs are really a different team now than they’ve been in the last few years -- and that’s not a good thing. Their defense hasn’t stopped anyone, but they can put some points up on the board. The Giants, on the other hand, have a pretty balanced team. The offense is seventh in points per game (28), and the defense is 21st in points allowed (24), though that number will go down. The defense has also forced six turnovers, converting two of them for touchdowns. Byron Leftwich will need to take care of the ball for the Bucs, but he’ll be under pressure all game from a strong Giants’ defensive line.
EAGLES (-7.5) over Chiefs
The Eagles let the Saints embarrass them at home last week. The high-powered Saints’ offense put up 48 points on a decent Eagles’ defense, but then again, New Orleans is going to score a lot of points on everyone. Still, the Eagles’ defense has to be angry and will be looking to attack Matt Cassel.
Redskins (-6.5) over LIONS
The Redskins have heard criticism from all angles this week. Fans have been jumping off the Jim Zorn bandwagon in droves, and all of this is coming after a win -- granted, an ugly win -- but a win, nonetheless. Now, the offense doesn’t deserve any praise until it starts scoring touchdowns, but the defense has been pretty good -- special teams too. Anyway, more than enough experts (Mike Florio, Michael Wilbon, Don Banks, Peter King, Eric Allen, Mike Golic, Seth Wickersham, Jason Cole, Charles Robinson, Michael Silver, and Bill Simmons (taking the points)) are picking against the Redskins this week, choosing to side with a team that has lost 19 games in a row. I think the Redskins are angry and that they play that way this week -- and finally put a decent amount of points up on a bad defense. With that being said, a loss to the Lions would be really, really bad.
Packers (-6.5) over RAMS
In two weeks, the Packers’ offensive line has allowed 10 sacks. Yes, 10. The Rams, though, have only registered one sack (against Washington). Defensive ends Leonard Little and Chris Long have the potential to get to the quarterback, but neither has done so yet. If the line gives Aaron Rodgers time, he should be able to shred the Rams’ secondary -- but that’s a big if. Still, if I were doing any Online Betting, I'd take the Packers on the road.
49ers (+7.5) over VIKINGS
Just a hunch. The Vikings still win, though.
Falcons (+4.5) over PATRIOTS
The Patriots (1-1) should be 0-2, and if they lose at home to Atlanta this week, they’ll be 1-2 heading into a Week 4 showdown with Baltimore. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 2-0, have forced six turnovers on defense, and have looked solid on both sides of the ball. I’ll take the points.
Bears (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS
Seneca Wallace is 5-7 for his career as a starter and has a career quarterback rating of 83.0. That’s not too bad, but I’ll still take the Bears.
Saints (-6.5) over BILLS
Now is not the time to pick against Drew Brees.
CHARGERS (-6.5) over Dolphins
The Dolphins (0-2) need a win, but I don’t see the Chargers losing two in a row at home.
Steelers (-3.5) over BENGALS
The Steelers haven’t lost to the Bengals under Mike Tomlin, and the games haven’t been close either.
RAIDERS (+2.5) over Broncos
The Broncos have done a pretty good job of stopping the run so far -- 10th in the NFL at 70 yards allowed per game. Their defense has also only allowed 6.5 points per game -- best in the NFL -- though that’s mainly because they’ve played the Bengals and the Browns.
JaMarcus Russell has been awful so far (46.6 quarterback rating, 35.2 percent completion percentage), so the Raiders don’t have much of a choice other than to focus on the running game with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.
I think the Raiders will be able to run the ball, so I’ll go with them. However, this is certainly an important game for the Broncos, who have a chance to go 3-0 before their schedule starts to get much more difficult.
Colts (+2.5) over CARDINALS
The Colts have beaten the Jaguars and Dolphins by a combined six points. They can’t really run the ball, and their defense hasn’t looked that great either. But Peyton Manning has been the best quarterback in the league not named Drew Brees through the first two weeks, and doing any Monday Night Football Betting against him would be very difficult. He usually shines in prime time, especially last week against the Dolphins.
Panthers (+8.5) over COWBOYS
Surprisingly, the Cowboys’ defense has yet to force a turnover or pick up a sack. Then again, facing Jake Delhomme should change that. Anyway, expect a lot of points and a competitive game.
Last week: 9-7
Season: 19-13
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Week 2 NFL picks
(Home team is in caps.)
Panthers (+6) over FALCONS
What exactly is going on with Jake Delhomme? Last week in a blowout loss to Philadelphia, he completed seven passes to his own team (for 73 yards) -- and four to the Eagles. He also lost a fumble and was sacked three times before being pulled from the game. Anyway, the best thing about this game for Delhomme is that it’s not at home, so Panther fans can’t immediately boo him once the team’s offense takes the field. I think he plays better -- I mean, he has to, right? -- and the Panthers keep it close with a strong rushing attack, but the Falcons still pull out the win.
Vikings (-9.5) over LIONS
Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson, and more Adrian Peterson. Maybe some Brett Favre. Maybe.
PACKERS (-9) over Bengals
Is Carson Palmer completely healthy or is he just a little rusty after missing most of last season? He threw for 247 yards last week, but he had two interceptions, no touchdowns, and led the Bengals’ offense on only one scoring drive -- although that drive did come late in the fourth quarter and seemed to seal the game before the crazy Brandon Stokley play. Still, scoring just seven points against a mediocre Broncos’ defense isn’t very good.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is making many Packers’ fans forget about Brett Favre. After a great first full season last year, Rodgers got off to a good start by leading a game-winning touchdown drive (a 50-year TD pass to Greg Jennings) to beat the Bears. The defense wasn’t too shabby either, forcing four Jay Cutler interceptions, collecting two sacks, and holding Matt Forte to 55 yards on 25 carries.
Cutler is a little more mobile than Palmer, who basically stays in the pocket. If the Bengals’ offensive line can’t protect him, it’ll be another long day for Cincinnati.
Texans (+6.5) over TITANS
The Texans haven’t won in Tennessee since 2004, but in that span, the games have been pretty competitive (except for last year’s matchup, which the Titans won 31-12). This game should be pretty close throughout, but I don’t see the Titans starting the season 0-2.
Raiders (+3) over CHIEFS
Both teams looked pretty good last week against strong opponents. The Chargers needed a late touchdown drive to get past Oakland, and Kansas City put a little scare into the Ravens by hanging around for so long. (How did the Ravens let Brodie Croyle throw two touchdown passes last week?) But bad teams find ways to lose winnable games. Anyway, the Raiders have the better rushing attack with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, and the defense doesn’t look too bad either. I’ll take the Raiders on the road.
JETS (+4) over Patriots
Rex Ryan is really giving this team a new identity, isn’t he? The Jets don’t seem intimidated by the Patriots at all, and they appear to be ready after shutting down the Texans last week. The Patriots, meanwhile, should have lost to the Bills on Monday night. Tom Brady looked great in the second half, but their offense seems pretty one-dimensional -- they can’t run the ball. The Jets, though, can run the ball, and rookie Mark Sanchez seems competent enough to give his team a chance to win. I’m not sure if the Patriots are as average as they looked last week or if the Jets are as strong as they looked, but expect a close and competitive game.
Saints (+1) over EAGLES
Kevin Kolb’s career stats: 24 of 45 for 167 yards, zero touchdowns, four interceptions, and two fumbles lost. Obviously that’s in limited playing time, but exactly how confident can he be going into this game, even if it is against the Saints’ defense?
Jake Delhomme isn’t here to turn the ball over five times, so the Eagles are going to need to rely heavily on Brian Westbrook. Can he step up and have a huge game?
REDSKINS (-10) over Rams
I could write a few pages about the Redskins and this game after listening to sports talk radio all week, but I’ll just say this: I expect the Redskins to win by at least two touchdowns.
JAGUARS (-3.5) over Cardinals
In regular season games on the East Coast last year, the Cardinals were 0-5 and were outscored 202-102. Expect a big day from Maurice Jones-Drew.
Seahawks (-1.5) over 49ERS
If the Seahawks can stop Frank Gore, they should be fine.
Buccaneers (+5) over BILLS
Seriously, who knows? Cadillac Williams and Fred Jackson looked pretty good in Week 1, though, didn’t they?
Steelers (-3) over BEARS
I could see the Steelers losing this game; after all, in Week 2 last year they only beat the Browns 10-6 and then looked pretty bad in a 15-6 loss to the Eagles in Week 3. The loss of Troy Polamalu hurts, but the Bears losing Brian Urlacher for the season at least cancels that out. I don’t think Jay Cutler will throw four interceptions again, but he’ll make a few mistakes against the strong Steelers’ defense.
Ravens (+3) over CHARGERS
Random note: The Ravens didn’t play a single game on the West Coast last year.
The Chargers are going to be without LaDainian Tomlinson, but he didn’t really look all that special in Week 1 against the Raiders. Plus, having Darren Sproles on the field gives the Chargers a little more versatility. The Ravens’ offense looked pretty strong last week, but it was against the Chiefs. I’m expecting a well-played game that comes down the wire.
BRONCOS (-3) over Browns
Neither team is really that good, but I’m not taking Brady Quinn on the road.
Giants (+3) over COWBOYS
Lost in the Cowboys’ win over the Bucs was that the Dallas defense allowed 450 yards, forced zero turnovers, and didn’t record a sack. Byron Leftwich threw for 276 yards and a touchdown, and Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward combined for 159 yards on the ground. The Cowboys’ offense was impressive, but how are they going to stop the Giants?
Colts (-3) over DOLPHINS
Who’s going to cover Reggie Wayne?
Last week: 10-6
Panthers (+6) over FALCONS
What exactly is going on with Jake Delhomme? Last week in a blowout loss to Philadelphia, he completed seven passes to his own team (for 73 yards) -- and four to the Eagles. He also lost a fumble and was sacked three times before being pulled from the game. Anyway, the best thing about this game for Delhomme is that it’s not at home, so Panther fans can’t immediately boo him once the team’s offense takes the field. I think he plays better -- I mean, he has to, right? -- and the Panthers keep it close with a strong rushing attack, but the Falcons still pull out the win.
Vikings (-9.5) over LIONS
Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson, and more Adrian Peterson. Maybe some Brett Favre. Maybe.
PACKERS (-9) over Bengals
Is Carson Palmer completely healthy or is he just a little rusty after missing most of last season? He threw for 247 yards last week, but he had two interceptions, no touchdowns, and led the Bengals’ offense on only one scoring drive -- although that drive did come late in the fourth quarter and seemed to seal the game before the crazy Brandon Stokley play. Still, scoring just seven points against a mediocre Broncos’ defense isn’t very good.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is making many Packers’ fans forget about Brett Favre. After a great first full season last year, Rodgers got off to a good start by leading a game-winning touchdown drive (a 50-year TD pass to Greg Jennings) to beat the Bears. The defense wasn’t too shabby either, forcing four Jay Cutler interceptions, collecting two sacks, and holding Matt Forte to 55 yards on 25 carries.
Cutler is a little more mobile than Palmer, who basically stays in the pocket. If the Bengals’ offensive line can’t protect him, it’ll be another long day for Cincinnati.
Texans (+6.5) over TITANS
The Texans haven’t won in Tennessee since 2004, but in that span, the games have been pretty competitive (except for last year’s matchup, which the Titans won 31-12). This game should be pretty close throughout, but I don’t see the Titans starting the season 0-2.
Raiders (+3) over CHIEFS
Both teams looked pretty good last week against strong opponents. The Chargers needed a late touchdown drive to get past Oakland, and Kansas City put a little scare into the Ravens by hanging around for so long. (How did the Ravens let Brodie Croyle throw two touchdown passes last week?) But bad teams find ways to lose winnable games. Anyway, the Raiders have the better rushing attack with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, and the defense doesn’t look too bad either. I’ll take the Raiders on the road.
JETS (+4) over Patriots
Rex Ryan is really giving this team a new identity, isn’t he? The Jets don’t seem intimidated by the Patriots at all, and they appear to be ready after shutting down the Texans last week. The Patriots, meanwhile, should have lost to the Bills on Monday night. Tom Brady looked great in the second half, but their offense seems pretty one-dimensional -- they can’t run the ball. The Jets, though, can run the ball, and rookie Mark Sanchez seems competent enough to give his team a chance to win. I’m not sure if the Patriots are as average as they looked last week or if the Jets are as strong as they looked, but expect a close and competitive game.
Saints (+1) over EAGLES
Kevin Kolb’s career stats: 24 of 45 for 167 yards, zero touchdowns, four interceptions, and two fumbles lost. Obviously that’s in limited playing time, but exactly how confident can he be going into this game, even if it is against the Saints’ defense?
Jake Delhomme isn’t here to turn the ball over five times, so the Eagles are going to need to rely heavily on Brian Westbrook. Can he step up and have a huge game?
REDSKINS (-10) over Rams
I could write a few pages about the Redskins and this game after listening to sports talk radio all week, but I’ll just say this: I expect the Redskins to win by at least two touchdowns.
JAGUARS (-3.5) over Cardinals
In regular season games on the East Coast last year, the Cardinals were 0-5 and were outscored 202-102. Expect a big day from Maurice Jones-Drew.
Seahawks (-1.5) over 49ERS
If the Seahawks can stop Frank Gore, they should be fine.
Buccaneers (+5) over BILLS
Seriously, who knows? Cadillac Williams and Fred Jackson looked pretty good in Week 1, though, didn’t they?
Steelers (-3) over BEARS
I could see the Steelers losing this game; after all, in Week 2 last year they only beat the Browns 10-6 and then looked pretty bad in a 15-6 loss to the Eagles in Week 3. The loss of Troy Polamalu hurts, but the Bears losing Brian Urlacher for the season at least cancels that out. I don’t think Jay Cutler will throw four interceptions again, but he’ll make a few mistakes against the strong Steelers’ defense.
Ravens (+3) over CHARGERS
Random note: The Ravens didn’t play a single game on the West Coast last year.
The Chargers are going to be without LaDainian Tomlinson, but he didn’t really look all that special in Week 1 against the Raiders. Plus, having Darren Sproles on the field gives the Chargers a little more versatility. The Ravens’ offense looked pretty strong last week, but it was against the Chiefs. I’m expecting a well-played game that comes down the wire.
BRONCOS (-3) over Browns
Neither team is really that good, but I’m not taking Brady Quinn on the road.
Giants (+3) over COWBOYS
Lost in the Cowboys’ win over the Bucs was that the Dallas defense allowed 450 yards, forced zero turnovers, and didn’t record a sack. Byron Leftwich threw for 276 yards and a touchdown, and Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward combined for 159 yards on the ground. The Cowboys’ offense was impressive, but how are they going to stop the Giants?
Colts (-3) over DOLPHINS
Who’s going to cover Reggie Wayne?
Last week: 10-6
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