Players I'm avoiding in 2008

Here is a list of players who I would rather not have for fantasy football this year. I've drafted a few teams, and I don't think I have any of these guys on them.

There are only two rules: 1) I can't pick any of the same players from last year's list, and 2) the choices can't be too obvious. Saying that I don't think James Thrash will be a solid fantasy football choice this year really doesn't say much at all.

Michael Turner

Turner's situation reminds me of when LaMont Jordan left the New York Jets for the Oakland Raiders after the 2004-2005 season. With the Jets, Jordan was underutilized as a short yardage and goal line back. He received carries of 39, 84, 46, and 93, respectively, in four seasons with the Jets, then went on to total 272 in 2005 as a Raider. But with those 272 carries Jordan averaged only 3.8 yards per carry. The biggest surprise in 2005 was Jordan's Tomlinson-like 70 receptions out of the backfield for 563 yards. The next two years Jordan was often injured and slowly played his way out of Oakland.

With Tomlinson ahead of him in San Diego, Turner was only needed to give Tomlinson a breather or finish off opponents on the ground when the Chargers already had the game well in hand. Because of his situation, Turner received few carries, but he made the most of them by averaging 5.5 yards per carry in four seasons. He also didn't catch many passes out of the backfield (3 in '06 and 4 in '07) because the Chargers wouldn't need to throw with him in the game, just run. Now Turner is going to an Atlanta Falcons team in rebuilding mode. The Falcons will be starting a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan, and the team's offensive line just isn't very good at the moment. With a young and inexperienced offense and a defense that should struggle, the Falcons will probably be playing from behind often and will have to throw the ball.

Now, Turner certainly figures to be the number one running back, but the Falcons also have Jerious Norwood on the roster. In two seasons with the Falcons, Norwood never received many carries but still averaged 6.2 yards per carry. He also possesses the ability to help out in the passing game; he had 40 receptions in those two seasons.

Basically, what I'm trying to say is this: the Falcons probably won't be very good on offense, and Turner will be looking to give away at least a significant portion of his carries to Norwood. Norwood also appears to be the favorite in the passing game, which the Falcons will be in often. Jordan surprised many people with his strong season in 2005. No one knows exactly what Turner can do, and if he's in part-time duty, selecting him in the first few rounds might just not be worth the risk.

Carson Palmer

I think Palmer is a very good quarterback, but I don't think he'll have that great of a season to warrant being the fifth-best fantasy football quarterback, which he currently is being selected as. With 4,131 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes, and 20 interceptions, Palmer scored just the ninth-most points out of all quarterbacks. Palmer also has two solid receivers in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and he really should have better numbers.

Also, the Bengals have a schedule that may be more difficult than last season: at Baltimore, Tennessee, at NY Giants, Cleveland, at Dallas, at NY Jets, Pittsburgh, bye, Jacksonville, at Houston, Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, Baltimore, at Indianapolis, Washington, at Cleveland, Kansas City. Besides the two games against Cleveland and the games against Washington and Kansas City, a lot of question marks remain as far as facing questionable defenses. The only good thing, or bad thing depending on how you look at it, is that the Bengals will probably be behind a lot and will have to throw the football. Still, Palmer could struggle against good defensive teams.

Willis McGahee

With a questionable passing game and the possibility of rookie Joe Flacco starting at quarterback, the Ravens are going to have to run the football this year. But McGahee already has some injury concerns with the same knee he injured in that gruesome injury in college against Ohio State. McGahee had 1,207 rushing yards and 8 total touchdowns last season in a relatively good year, but with some injuries and the retirement of Jonathan Ogden, the offensive line could struggle and fail to open up enough holes for McGahee. The Ravens also really like rookie running back Ray Rice, who could steal some carries and receptions on third downs as he tries to carve out a niche on the team.

Derek Anderson

Anderson had a fantastic 2007 season; no one could say he/she saw that coming, except for maybe Anderson himself (probably not). He also has plenty of weapons on offense this year in Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth, Kellen Winslow, and Jamal Lewis. But as of right now, he is still recovering from a concussion that he suffered during the preseason. I just don't think Anderson will have the same kind of season he did last year, and I also think if he struggles, the Browns may cave in to some pressure to give Brady Quinn an opportunity at some point.

Laveranues Coles

Remember the situation with Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley with the Orlando Magic a few years back? Francis was moved to tears in January 2005 when Mobley was traded out of Orlando to Sacramento.

"I can't put it into words," Francis said at the time "Playing with a guy, living with a guy, just knowing that every day when I wake up that's something I can count on, that I'm going to be in practice or in a game with Cuttino. Him not being here is going to be tough for me. I don't know what I'm going to wake up for."

(Random tangent: Francis also had this to say: "You don't wait 30 minutes before a game to tell a guy he's traded. The way you handle relationships, for me, is going to change the way that I approach the game, more businesslike than anything." I never really noticed this before, but that 2004-2005 season was Francis's last good season. Was Francis so upset about the Mobley trade that he stopped playing well altogether for the rest of his career? Does handling the game "more businesslike" meaning playing poorly? Just a very weird situation.)

Anyway, that situation between Francis and Mobley reminds me of Coles and Chad Pennington, who was recently traded to the Miami Dolphins. Coles and Pennington were very close, and Coles stopped talking to the media so he wouldn't have to answer any questions about Pennington's departure. Brett Favre's presence should certainly help the passing game and the whole offense, but Coles's demeanor really leaves a lot to be desired. He's a professional and should still play hard, but I wonder if his heart is really still in it without his buddy in New York.

Jerricho Cotchery (82 receptions, 1,130 yards, 2 TDs) also seems like he's taken over the role as the team's best wide receiver from Coles (55 receptions, 646 yards, 6 TDs). Coles could still have a decent year, but he shouldn't be relied upon as a number two wide receiver option for any standard leagues with 10 or 12 teams.

That's all I have for this year. I picked seven players last year and five this year. For some reason, this year was tougher to pick some players I thought might struggle a bit, but I also tried to back up my picks a little more than before.

Breaking down last year's picks

In August of last year, I made some selections of NFL players who I thought would either underperform or not have seasons worthy of how high they were being taken in various fantasy football drafts. I never did break those choices down (I made seven), so I'm going to do so now.

The quotes that follow are what I said about the player at the time. I'll then post his statistics from 2006 and 2007 and figure out if I was right or wrong.

Shaun Alexander

In an auction league last year, I spent a significant chunk of my money on Alexander, and I don't think I'll ever do that again. While this choice may be more of a personal one, I'm still a little bitter about it. I'm not a big believer of spending more than half of your cap space or money on one guy, and that plan really backfired on me last year after Alexander broke his leg. The Madden Curse may have played a large part in Alexander's downfall last season, but he just absolutely killed my team. That won't happen again, unless, of course, I face a team who has him and he rattled off 200 yards and 5 TDs. Now that's possible.

2006: 10 games, 896 yards, 7 TDs
2007: 10 games, 716 yards, 4 TDs

Needless to say, Alexander didn't rattle off 200 yards or 5 TDs on anyone last season. Injuries obviously played a role since he only played in 10 games, but he also missed time in 2006 and had a slightly better season. Many people figured that Alexander would bounce back; he did not. He's also currently searching for a team, but his career may be close to over.

Verdict: Right

Randy Moss

Many people are completely sold that Moss will magically return to form this year just because he's playing with Tom Brady and a solid New England Patriots team. But how is this choice a good fantasy decision, especially if he's taken in the first few rounds? Moss has, in previous seasons, admitted to taking downs off and giving less than 100% effort. Not only that, but he's playing on a team that spreads the ball around to all receivers and throws TD passes to LINEBACKERS in the red zone. Count me out.

2006: 13 games, 553 yards, 3 TDs
2007: 16 games, 1,493 yards, 23 TDs

I wasn't just wrong about Moss last year; I was wrong in a HUGE way. Moss went on to break Jerry Rice's 1987 record of 22 touchdown receptions in a single season. Moss enabled Tom Brady to throw 50 touchdown passes, breaking Peyton Manning's record of 49 in 2004. He also helped the New England offense to break plenty of offensive records, including most touchdowns in a single season with 75.

Verdict: (Very) Wrong

Clinton Portis

I hate to say it, but something just seems wrong with Portis. I don't know if he's become injury prone or what, but I'm not sure if he's a reliable selection anymore. He's also stopped dressing up before games in ridiculous outfits, which is also a real shame. And to top that all off, his Vick remarks during the off season were, in a few words, confusing and stupid. Ladell Betts, who will get a share of the workload and also serves as the 3rd down back frequently, may end up with the bulk of the carries before the year is over.

2006: 8 games, 523 yards, 7 TDs
2007: 16 games, 1,262 yards, 11 TDs

For an offense with a makeshift offensive line because of injuries, Portis had a pretty solid season in 2007. He finished with the sixth-best season among running backs (fantasy football wise) and played in all 16 games. His 3.9 YPC (yards per carry) average was a little low, but he produced well consdering the team's circumstances.

Verdict: Wrong

Frank Gore

The addition of Gore may be confusing to some people. I think Gore is a great player, and he was outstanding last year, but Norv Turner is no longer the 49ers offensive coordinator, and I expect the offense to regress a bit. Gore may put up decent numbers, but I doubt he'll repeat what he did last season. Currently he's dealing with a fractured hand, which may also hurt him somewhere down the road this year.

2006: 16 games, 1,695 yards, 8 TDs
2007: 15 games, 1,102 yards, 5 TDs

For the most part, Gore was a top-5 selection in drafts last season for many people. Unfortunately, he just didn't have that great of a season. Even though he played in all but one of his team's games, Gore finished just 13th among running backs in total fantasy points.

Verdict: Right

Matt Hasselbeck

I've been waiting for a few years now to see Hasselbeck move to the elite quarterback level, but it never happens. Hasselbeck has the weapons around him to put up huge numbers, but inconsistency and injury concerns always seem to surround his output. I think he's a good quarterback, sure, but a great quarterback? Not really. If he stays healthy, he can put up decent numbers but nothing spectacular.

2006: 12 games, 2,442 yards, 18 TDs
2007: 16 games, 3,966 yards, 28 TDs

Apparently I should have waited just one more year. Hasselbeck had a solid season by spreading the ball around to all of his receivers and picking apart opposing defenses. He also threw just 12 interceptions. Hasselbeck had better numbers last season than Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers.

Verdict: Wrong

Eli Manning

Eli Manning has never really been one of my favorite players, and actually, he might be my least favorite player. Out of all the charades the Giants went through to get Manning a few years ago, he's really failed to live up to the hype. He has the talent, I guess, but I doubt he'll ever be anything like his brother. Anyway, with the loss of Tiki Barber, the backbone of the Giants offense is gone. Brandon Jacobs and Reuben Droughns will try to save the running game, but Barber meant so much more. He not only ran well, but he caught dump passes and screens out of the backfield to present a whole other dimension for that offense. Without Barber there as a safety net for Manning, it's time for him to put up or shut up.

2006: 16 games, 3,244 yards, 24 TDs
2007: 16 games, 3,336 yards, 23 TDs

First of all, I was wrong about Manning not being able to live up to his brother. He doesn't have as much talent as Peyton or the ability to put up the same kinds of numbers, but he still led his team to a huge Super Bowl victory over the Patriots. Second, the Giants didn't need Barber, and his absence may have actually helped the team.

But as far as numbers go, Manning didn't make a significant leap. Actually, he threw more interceptions in 2007 (20) than in 2006 (18). He was a clutch performer in the playoffs, but that doesn't mean much for fantasy football.

Verdict: Right

Antonio Gates

I know, surprising, right? Here's my problem with Gates -- he's the best tight end in the NFL, hands down. But is he that much better to be taking him so much earlier than the rest of the tight end crop? I don't think so. Last year Gates had 924 receiving yards and 9 TDs. Those are the best numbers for tight ends, but he's not really that far away from several others. In a standard scoring league, Gates accumulated 139 fantasy points. The next five closest were Alge Crumper with 118, Tony Gonzalez with 115, Todd Heap with 105, Chris Cooley with 104, and Kellen Winslow with 99. That's not a huge difference. When you consider that Gates is usually picked up by the 3rd or 4th round, the value doesn't always fit. And with Tomlinson scoring so many touchdowns and getting so many carries inside the red zone, Gates may not eclipse 10 TDs again this season. He's the best TE, but I think owners may just be better off going with a later TE choice and picking up another position earlier.

2006: 16 games, 924 yards, 9 TDs
2007: 16 games, 984 yards, 9 TDs

Sorry, but I was spot-on with this selection. For many people last year, Gates was a top-30 choice, which only would have made sense if he was just that much better than the rest of the tight end options. In 2007 he was not; in fact, Jason Witten (1,145 yards, 7 TDs) had a slightly better scoring season. Four other tight ends (Tony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, Kellen Winslow, Chris Cooley) also had very good seasons and provided a reason to not pick a tight end so early. Gates still may be the most gifted tight end in the NFL, but it's just not worth it to select him so early in a draft.

Verdict: Right

Final tally: 4 correct choices and 3 incorrect ones. Not too bad. Alexander and Gore were first round picks, and I successfully avoided them in drafts. Unfortunately, I was way off on the Moss prediction.

I'll post a 2008 list of players I don't like at some point in the next few days. Feel free to agree/disagree or offer your own opinions.