Revisiting the Redskins' draft choices the last few years

Every time fans or talking heads suggest the Redskins should trade draft picks away, it makes me laugh. Not only because the Redskins are deficient in overall team talent, but because they've been trading away draft selections for years, and it hasn't been an effective strategy. Dan Snyder and the team's front office has (until recently, hopefully) completely refused to hold onto their allotment of draft picks.

Is it really surprising that the team's most successful draft in years may end up being last year's draft, when the team traded down a few times and selected 12 players? Time will tell how good those 12 players are, but most of them contributed at least something this season, which is a lot more than can be said about most of the team's drafts in the last decade-plus.

Mike Shanahan may have the final word on personnel decisions, but the Redskins' scouting and personnel departments haven't changed that much. Besides the departure of Vinny Cerrato, the guy previously calling the shots, things aren't much different. And that should be reason enough to hold onto as many picks as possible: More picks mean more chances.

Let's take a look at the last three drafts (2009, 2010, and 2011). In those drafts, starting with 2009, the Redskins had six, seven (third-rounder used in 2009 supplemental draft), and 12 draft choices, respectively. Take a guess which one's better.

2009:

1st: Brian Orakpo
3rd: Kevin Barnes
5th: Cody Glenn
6th: Robert Henson
7th: Eddie Williams
7th: Marko Mitchell

2010:

1st: Trent Williams
3rd: Jeremy Jarmon (2009 supplemental pick)
4th: Perry Riley
6th: Dennis Morris
7th: Terrence Austin
7th: Erik Cook
7th: Selvish Capers

2011:

1st: Ryan Kerrigan
2nd: Jarvis Jenkins
3rd: Leonard Hankerson
4th: Roy Helu
5th: Dejon Gomes
5th: Niles Paul
6th: Evan Royster
6th: Aldrick Robinson
7th: Brandyn Thompson
7th: Maurice Hurt
7th: Markus White
7th: Chris Neild

Again, who knows how all of those 2011 picks will pan out. But it's probably a good idea to stick with the 2011 strategy over the other two years. Yes, I know that this analysis is only looking back at the last three drafts, and the Redskins have obviously picked some talented players in previous drafts. But they've done so without stockpiling picks, which has also prevented them from creating depth at key positions.

The only players from 2009 and 2010 who have really contributed are Orakpo, Williams, and Riley. Barnes has received playing time, but he hasn't been very good. He also may not be on the roster next season because of his overall ineffectiveness. Austin and Cook haven't done much either. Of those 13 picks, only those six are still with the team -- which is hilariously bad. The worst pick of the bunch is probably Jarmon, selected in the 2009 supplemental draft. The Redskins forfeited a third-round pick for Jarmon's services, and right now he's out of the league. Jarmon was originally selected as a defensive end when the Redskins utilized a 4-3 defense, so the selection was at least defensible at the time. But after being traded to and subsequently released by the Broncos earlier this season, Jarmon may not get another NFL opportunity. Either way, I guess, that pick was wasted.

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If you're on board with the Redskins trading away future draft picks in order to get Andrew Luck (unlikely) or Robert Griffin III (more possible), that's just fine. I'd be extremely happy if the Redskins finally acquired/drafted a franchise quarterback. That's the team's biggest need. But trading away multiple draft choices, particularly first- and second-round picks, is not something that I agree with, especially when examining the team's draft resume the last few years. Obviously it's a requirement to analyze each trade individually, but trading up in the first few rounds is rarely cheap.

Yes, the NFL is a quarterbacks' league; most great teams have outstanding quarterbacks. But I shudder at the thought of the Redskins giving up the farm for a quarterback who ends up with the skills of someone like Mark Sanchez. Give me 2011's strategy instead, even if that means missing out on Luck and Griffin.

Pasquarelli examines risk in Jarmon selection

In his latest column, ESPN's Len Pasquarelli dissected the NFL supplemental draft and the Redskins' recent selection of University of Kentucky defensive end Jeremy Jarmon.

Pasquarelli on the pick:

The Redskins, who finished with the league's fifth-worst sack total in 2008 (24 sacks), chose University of Texas defensive end/linebacker Brian Orakpo with the 13th overall pick in the April draft. To add another upfield threat, the Redskins took Jarmon in the third round of the supplemental lottery. Washington didn't have a single defender with more than four sacks in 2008.

. . . Washington officials can only hope that Jarmon is as superb a prospect as Orakpo, who caused a considerable amount of buzz during the minicamps and organized team activities in the spring. If Jarmon is even close to being that good, the Redskins will have beaten the very long odds in the supplemental draft. The lottery almost never turns out a productive player.

And though he usually doesn't have many nice things to say about the Redskins and owner Daniel Snyder, Pasquarelli basically stuck to the facts in examining the history of the supplemental draft. Long quote here:

Of the 37 players chosen in the supplemental draft from 1977 to 2008, nine never played a single snap in an NFL regular-season game. Seventeen of them never started even one contest. Just five carved out NFL careers that included 100 or more appearances. The average career span for those previous 37 supplemental prospects is 41.8 games, or barely the equivalent of 2½ full seasons in the league. There have been no eventual Hall of Fame players chosen in the supplemental draft, although wide receiver and ESPN analyst Cris Carter has a good chance of some day being inducted to the Canton shrine. The supplemental drafts have produced only four Pro Bowl participants.

. . . Little wonder so few teams participate in the supplemental draft. Seven franchises have never made a supplemental pick. Fifteen others have made just one.

There have been eight first-round choices used, none since 1992. But even some of the top lottery picks -- like linebacker Brian Bosworth (Seattle Seahawks[,] 1987), and quarterbacks Steve Walsh (Dallas, 1989), Timm Rosenbach (Arizona Cardinals 1989) and Dave Brown (New York Giants, 1992) -- never approximated expectations.

Consider the 10 supplemental players selected in the past 10 years. Four are out of the NFL altogether, and another has zero starts the past two years. Tailback Tony Hollings of Georgia Tech, chosen by the Houston Texans in the second round in 2003, has not registered a rushing attempt since 2004. Offensive lineman Milford Brown (Houston in the sixth round, 2002) has played with four different teams in seven seasons.

Well, Jarmon certainly has his work cut of for him.

I have to be honest: When I first started reading the article, I thought Pasquarelli was going to rip the Redskins for daring to use a (2010) third-round pick on Jarmon. Unfortunately for him, that's pretty hard to do when a few other teams, including the Eagles and Lions, were reportedly ready to pounce if Jarmon fell to the fourth round.

To summarize, based on the odds that Pasquarelli provides, Jarmon probably won't be a star. But the Redskins don't need him to be one; they're just hoping that he can develop into a competent defensive end who can improve the team's pass rushing abilities in the near future. The pick wasn't really made for the upcoming season, so Jarmon has some time to learn. And, more than likely, he'll need it.

Weekly Rundown: Blatche, Musial, Trembley

Weekly Rundown is a combination of links and brief comments on stories and topics that I couldn't get to during the week. If there's something important that I missed, don't hesitate to send an email or leave a comment.

• Dave Allen on the outfield defense of Nick Markakis and Adam Jones so far this season:
  

  
  For the Orioles things have not gone as well, giving up an additional 20 runs in outfield defense. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are two of the game’s up-and-coming star outfielders and their futures are bright, but their defense this year has not been good. Together they have given up over 15 runs, but it is important to remember this does not mean we should expect them to be poor fielders going forward. UZR and other defenses metrics, by all accounts, take huge numbers of innings before they become predictive and are subject to big fluctuations even of the course of an entire season.
  
  Markakis and Jones came into this season with great fielding numbers in 2008. Markakis at +11 UZR/150 in over 1300 innings in RF and Jones at +11 UZR/150 over 1000 innings in CF. This year Markakis is -16 UZR/150 over 760 innings in RF and Jones -12 over 600 innings. This new data put together with the old tempers our expectations; maybe Markakis is only a +5 to +0 corner outfield and maybe Jones is just a +5 to +0 center fielder.
  

  
  Despite the subpar numbers in the first half, I still believe Markakis and Jones are good enough outfielders to improve their performance in the second part of the season. [FanGraphs]


• Gilbert Arenas donated $25,000 to charity in exchange for the chair that President Obama sat in during the Bulls-Wizards game at Verizon Center earlier this year. The chair was also autographed by the president. [Washington Wizards Blog]


• Andray Blatche will wear No. 7 instead of No. 32. Only time will tell if the number change will reflect a change in Blatche's attitude and dedication. [D.C. Sports Bog]


• Eddie Jordan isn't to blame for Blatche's shortcomings. It's up to Blatche to reach his potential. [Truth About It]


• Steve Melewski presents an interesting question-and-answer session with David Stockstill, the Orioles' director of player development. [MASN Sports]


• Joe Posnanski does it again -- this time on the greatness that was/is Stan Musial. [Kansas City Star]


• Curtis Granderson had a wonderful All-Star experience, and he shared a couple of brief videos. [Big League Stew]


• Dave Trembley isn't assured of managing the Orioles past this season, but he's still working as hard as he can to improve the team:
  

  
  "I think we're getting to the point now with our organization where we almost taste it. We can see what's coming and we get a little ahead ourselves," said Trembley, who maintains that he gets far more fan support than criticism. "I think it's a positive quality that our fans expect us to win, but I also think, we all need to be realistic. Andy has been very forthright in saying, 'Hey, we got a ways to go.'
  
  "For us, it's more important to get the right guys in the right slots, to make sure they're getting experience and showing improvement. To put it bluntly, we don't have enough players that are done reaching their potential to, on a day-in and day-out basis, succeed in this division. I take the losses personal, but I think you have to keep things in perspective."
  

  
  I agree with Jeff Zrebiec: Unless the Orioles have another terrible late-season collapse, Trembley should return in 2010. [Baltimore Sun]


• In Dave Cameron's 2009 MLB Trade Value series, which only has five more names to go, Nick Markakis is listed at No. 35 and Adam Jones is 19th. Somehow Billy Rowell (.229/.289/.367 at Single-A Frederick) isn't included. [FanGraphs]


• Not sure about you, but I'm definitely rooting for Cadillac Williams. [Pro Football Talk]


• Some intriguing thoughts on why the blogosphere and the mainstream media may not be all that different. [Deadspin]


• Most fans agree with, or at least approve of, the Redskins' recent selection of Jeremy Jarmon in the NFL supplemental draft. [Redskins Insider]

Redskins select Jarmon; Cerrato making sense?

On Thursday, the Redskins used their 2010 third-round draft pick to take Kentucky defensive end Jeremy Jarmon in the NFL supplemental draft. The selection of Jarmon was the only pick in the supplemental draft this year, and it was also the first pick ever made by the Redskins.

The move seems to be a decent gamble, and here's Vinny Cerrato's reasoning on the decision:

"I thought that it was a situation where you get a chance to get a big defensive lineman, and he gets the chance to come in, learn from two veteran guys," Vinny Cerrato, the Redskins' executive vice president of football operations, said in a conference call. "He is 21 years old, and he has got the size. To me, in next year's draft, if he had gone through the combine and everything else, the guy probably goes in the second round, 'cause D-linemen always go high in the draft. So I think we got the chance to get a quality player at a quality price.

"I don't think we could have got him in the third, come next April. And this way, he is a year ahead. For our third-round pick next year, we are getting a year of his work already into it."

In this case, Cerrato appears to be right. According to the linked Washington Post article, five other teams were willing to give up fourth-round choices for Jarmon, so using a third-round choice was the only way the Redskins were going to land Jarmon. And although it's impossible to predict his production, adding a young defensive lineman to an aging group of defensive ends certainly seems to be a positive.

Right now, the defensive ends on the Redskins roster, besides Jarmon, include: Alex Buzbee (24), Andre Carter (30), Phillip Daniels (36), Rob Jackson (23), Brian Orakpo (23 on July 31), J.D. Skolnitsky (22), Derek Walker (22), Chris Wilson (27), and Renaldo Wynn (34). The defensive tackle position is pretty deep, but as shown, the Redskins needed an upgrade at end -- or at least the chance of one. Buzbee will probably stay on the practice squad, and Skolnitsky and Walker could join him depending on how well they do in training camp. Jackson seems like an interesting talent, but he can't stay healthy.

Carter will start at right defensive end, and Daniels is the likely candidate to start on the left. Orakpo could also see some time at defensive end, but the Redskins apparently feel like he can contribute at linebacker as well; it'll be interesting to see exactly how he's used. Depending on how quickly he develops, Jarmon could see some snaps at left defensive end as well.

The one negative of the Jarmon pick, though, is why he had to enter the supplemental draft in the first place:

Just two months ago, Jeremy Jarmon was excited about returning to the University of Kentucky for his senior season.

“I talked with Micah Johnson, our middle linebacker, and All-American cornerback Trevard Lindley, and found out they were in no hurry to leave [for the NFL],” Jarmon said. “We were having fun there and we were all coming back.”

Then Jarmon, a 6-3, 277-pound defensive end, made a mistake.

He purchased an over-the-counter dietary supplement to help him maintain his weight during the offseason. He was rehabbing a shoulder injury and he was worried he would gain weight since he could not work out regularly.

Turns out the supplement had a banned substance in it.

The NCAA ruled Jarmon, a three-year starter for the Wildcats, ineligible for the 2009 college football season.

"When I found out in May, I was real disappointed at the time and that was definitely a low point--if not one of the lowest points of my life," he said.

So, Jarmon's move to the NFL was a no-brainer. Fortunately, he has owned up to his mistake, which at least shows some maturity and responsibility on his part. Jarmon also is ready to learn: "Phillip is a 14-year veteran and I'm sure he has seen just about everything in the NFL. I'm hoping to just get in, land under the wing of those guys and follow in their footsteps." I like to read quotes like that from rookies; it's important to show some respect to the veteran players and leaders on a team.

I'm a fan of the Jarmon pick because it makes the Redskins better in the long run and gives them more options on the defensive line. Wynn and Daniels may be in Washington just for this season, and even if Jarmon doesn't get on the field a ton this year, he'll be better equipped to contribute in 2010-2011. More moves like this one, Cerrato. Please.