The NFL is back: Vikings vs. Saints

The NFL gets underway tonight as the Vikings travel to New Orleans to take on the Super Bowl-winning Saints in a rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game.

Last season, I picked every NFL game against the spread, and my final record was 137-122-8. I guess that's not too bad, especially since that was the first time I actually did that before. Anyway, I'm going to be posting my picks again this season and keeping track of how I do. It's not the most exciting thing to post, but it's pretty fun -- and frustrating too. Sometimes I'll look closer at a game or at least give some sort of rationale for my picks, and other times I'll just quickly post them. Either way, I'll have them posted every week in one or two posts.

Vikings (+6) over SAINTS

I think this is going to be Brett Favre's last season -- and not because I listen to anything he says about his retirement. When Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams announced that he was going to do everything in his power to blitz Favre and make him uncomfortable, he provided a template for the rest of the league on how to defend the Vikings. Even if his defense couldn't prevent the Vikings from scoring every drive, Williams made a concerted effort to blitz Favre from all angles -- and when the Vikings defensive players got there, they hit Favre, and hit him hard. He's still dealing with an injured ankle that he suffered in that NFC Championship Game.

Favre is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play, but he turns 41 in October. At some point, he's going to stop bouncing up from hits and brushing minor injuries off so quickly. Basically, if the Vikings don't do everything in their power to protect Favre this season, they're in big trouble. Like many have already said, they've shown their hand about what they think about any other quarterback other than Favre starting on their roster -- they obviously have no confidence in Tarvaris Jackson. I think Favre is going to take a pounding this season, and afterwards he'll decide that maybe staying home and playing two-hand touch football with his Wrangler-wearing buddies is a lot more fun and less demanding at this stage of his career.

These teams are still two of the best in the NFC, and either could get to the Super Bowl this season. The Saints are very close to being the same team as last season -- same with the Vikings. The Saints deserve to be favorites -- not only did they win the Super Bowl, but they're also at home -- but the Vikings are still very close talent-wise. Teams are also usually rusty from the preseason in their first game, and I don't think this game will be any different.

If I had to pick a winner, I'd say the Saints, but I think it'll be a close game.

Arrieta outduels Sabathia in O's win

Jake Arrieta and CC Sabathia both pitched 6.1 innings last night, but Sabathia allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits while Arrieta allowed just two runs on eight hits. Arrieta also walked only one batter while striking out three.

Matt Albers relieved Arrieta in the bottom of the seventh and entered the game in a tough situation -- the Yankees had runners on first and third, one out, and Alex Rodriguez at bat, pinch-hitting for Ramiro Pena. But Albers got two ground balls -- one by Rodriguez and another by Brett Gardner -- to get out of the inning unscathed. Albers, who also pitched a scoreless eighth, lowered his ERA to 4.09. He also hasn't allowed a run since August 14 -- a span of nine appearances. And with a four-run cushion, Mark Hendrickson pitched a scoreless ninth.

So, yes, the three-headed monster of Arrieta, Albers, and Hendrickson held the Yankees to two runs in September. Not a bad performance.

On the season, Arrieta has more walks (46) than strikeouts (44), but he's getting close to changing that and has walked only one batter in his last two starts.

On offense, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Ty Wigginton each had two hits. One of Wigginton's hits was a double. Nolan Reimold hit a two-run home run in the third, giving the O's a 5-1 lead at the time. Felix Pie drew the lone walk for the O's.

The O's have now won four games in a row -- two against the Rays, and two against the Yankees -- and are 4-3 in September. They'll go for the sweep in a day game today as Brad Bergesen faces 23-year-old Ivan Nova. And according to the game preview on ESPN, the O's will try for their first road sweep of the Yankees in more than 24 years.

ROY Watch: Brian Matusz won the first game of the series on Monday, pitching six innings and allowing three runs while striking out four and walking two. The outing didn't do much to lower his ERA (4.71), but he did win his fourth start in a row -- and winning in Yankee Stadium is always a good thing.

Does Matusz have a chance at AL ROY?

In Keith Law's latest ESPN.com chat, someone had a question about Brian Matusz:

Bub (DC)
Matusz started off great, then terrible, now he looks great again. Can he be a legitimate top of the rotation starter as soon as next season?

Klaw (2:18 PM)
I might still vote for him as AL ROY if I had that ballot. I certainly believe in his long-term value far more than I believe in Austin Jackson's, and the AL East is a brutal place to pitch, especially if you don't get to face the division's worst lineup. I'll say he's an ace in 2012 or 2013, with modest improvements next year.

Not a bad compliment at all. And as far as the Rookie of the Year award goes, there's no question that the National League race is more exciting this season than in the American League. But, as always, there are still candidates to be sorted and an award to be handed out. Catcher Carlos Santana of the Indians would have been the clear-cut winner if he had stayed healthy, but he's out for the season and hasn't played since August 2. Tigers centerfielder Austin Jackson seems to be the front-runner at this point, but with the run Matusz went on in August, he's making a push for the award.

Let's take a look at Jackson, Matusz, and some of the other ROY options in the AL.

Austin Jackson, CF, Tigers: .309/.363/.419, 3 HR, 21 SB

Just looking at overall numbers, Jackson is having a phenomenal season for a rookie. He's not hitting for much power, but he's getting on base at a pretty good clip, stealing bases (and only caught five times), and playing slightly above average defense (0.9 UZR) at a difficult position. Those numbers make Jackson worth about 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR) and nearly $13.8 million, according to FanGraphs.

However, exactly how sustainable are Jackson's numbers in the long term? Regardless of whether or not you think the ROY award should have some sort of future element linked to it, it should be noted that Jackson has an unsustainable .422 BABIP, and he also strikes out a lot (27.6 K%) while not really walking a ton (7.1 BB%). Right now, his combination of speed and hitting a lot of ground balls (48.9%) and line drives (25.7%) is working, but when his BABIP goes down, his numbers will drop as well. It's tough to suggest that he's been rather lucky for nearly an entire season, but that does seem to be the case.

With about a month left to go in the season, can Jackson keep it up? Or will his numbers start to drop before then? That may be the difference in whether or not he wins the award. (Though, position players do seem to hold an advantage to winning the award over pitchers since they play everyday.)

Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles: 4.72 ERA, 6.99 K/9, 3.23 BB/9

I've written about Matusz a few times lately, basically pointing out that he had a much-improved August and has been pitching much better. Right now, he's been worth 1.9 WAR and $7.8 million, first among AL rookie starters. He also has more strikeouts (117) and more innings pitched (150.2) than any other AL rookie.

Since I've talked about Matusz enough before, I'll mention something else: FanGraphs WAR tends to factor in defense and be slightly higher for position players, which may account for Jackson's WAR being 3.4 and Matusz's at 1.9. At Baseball-Reference, Jackson and Matusz are closer (2.5 for Jackson, 2.1 for Matusz). That's at least worth noting.

Brennan Boesch, OF, Tigers: .268/.330/.447, 14 HR

The Tigers promoted Boesch in late April, and he started out his major league career on fire. He was still mashing the ball until about early July, when his numbers started to tail off considerably. On July 9, Boesch was hitting .345/.402/.600 -- a rather impressive slash line for a rookie after a few months. But he's cooled off and isn't doing much hitting at all lately. In July, he hit .209/.311/.253, and in August he hit .185/.227/.304. Also, after hitting 11 home runs in May and June, Boesch has hit just two homers since.

It's unlikely that Boesch will turn his hitting numbers around this season; it's also possible that pitchers have found out how to pitch to him. And other than his hitting, Boesch doesn't bring a whole lot to the table -- as of right now, he has a combined UZR of -2.9 in left and right field. For the season, FanGraphs has him at 1.3 WAR, while Baseball-Reference has him at 1.7 WAR.

Danny Valencia, 3B, Twins: .343/.382/.454, 2 HR

Valencia's first game didn't come until June 3, so he's only played in 63 games. But he's been extremely valuable for the Twins -- 2.4 WAR on FanGraphs and 2.6 WAR on Baseball-Reference -- so it's certainly hard to ignore what he's done. Valencia doesn't hit for much power (only two homers), but he does have 16 doubles and a triple. He also doesn't walk much (6.4 BB%) but doesn't strike out a ton either (13.4 K%). He has hit a decent amount of line drives (19.6%) too, but mainly his offensive production is fueled by a .385 BABIP. That's not to suggest he's a bad hitter, but it's not likely that his numbers will still be this high by the end of the season.

And that's where the other valuable part of his game comes in handy: Valencia has been phenomenal defensively at third base. His UZR right now is 5.8, so even if his offensive numbers drop a bit, he'll still maintain plenty of value as long as he keeps producing with the glove.

Wade Davis, SP, Rays: 4.29 ERA, 5.69 K/9, 3.42 BB/9

Davis has put together two positive starts after coming back from the 15-day disabled list with a right shoulder strain. On August 24, he got the win against the Angels after giving up two runs in 5.1 innings, and on August 30, he held the Blue Jays to two runs over 7.2 innings to earn another win. Davis is a case in which his ERA doesn't necessarily indicate his true pitching performance -- he has a 5.10 FIP and a 4.96 xFIP -- so a pitcher like Matusz has had a better season even though Matusz has a higher ERA.

Still, Davis has held his own in his rookie season, though FanGraphs (0.3 WAR) and Baseball-Reference (1.7 WAR) differ on his value.

Reid Brignac, 2B/SS, Rays: .261/.310/.383, 6 HR

Like Ben Zobrist, Brignac can play multiple positions. This season, he's played most of his games at second base and shortstop, but he has also played a couple innings in right field, so he can likely play a few innings at a corner outfield spot and not hurt the Rays. His offensive numbers have cooled off somewhat, but then again, he doesn't receive regular playing time with guys like Zobrist, Jason Bartlett, and Sean Rodriguez all getting some time at the two middle infield positions.

While Brignac is flexible in the field, he's not really as flexible at the plate. He doesn't walk much (5.6 BB%), but he strikes out a huge amount (27.3 K%). He also hits a decent amount of line drives (20.7%), but he actually hits more fly balls (41.0%) than ground balls (38.3%).

Brignac has also been decent in the field, putting together a combined 1.6 UZR at shortstop and second. His fielding helps his value, especially since he doesn't get on base a whole lot.

Mitch Talbot, SP, Indians: 4.40 ERA, 4.95 K/9, 3.97 BB/9

This is basically just a brief mentioning of Talbot, as I don't think he has much of a chance at winning the award. In 147.1 innings pitched, he only has 81 strikeouts. He's done an effective job pitching to contact, getting lots of ground balls (48.3%) and not giving up too many line drives (17.0%). And it's not like he's been terribly lucky or anything either -- his BABIP is right around .300, at .302. FanGraphs (1.2) and Baseball-Reference (0.1) differ on his WAR, though, which is pretty interesting.

Neftali Feliz, RP, Rangers: 3.26 ERA, 34 saves, 9.16 K/9, 2.48 K/9

Feliz, the Rangers' 22-year-old flame-throwing closer, has been steady all season. He earned his first save of the season on April 12, and he hasn't looked back. In 58.0 innings pitched, he has 59 strikeouts and just 16 walks -- fantastic numbers for such a young player on a team most likely headed to the playoffs. He's also only blown three saves all season.

Because he's a reliever and hasn't pitched as many innings as some of the young starters, he probably won't receive a ton of votes. Still, he has a bright future, and the Rangers could even decide to give Feliz a chance to earn a spot in the team's rotation next spring. A solid starter is almost always worth more than an elite closer, so it would make sense to give Feliz a chance to start. Still, even if he ends up as the team's long-term closer, there's no reason why he can't shine in that role for years to come.

John Jaso, C, Rays: .281/.390/.405, 5 HR

Here's something I didn't know: Jaso was one of the Rays' September call-ups in 2008. Then, in 2009, he didn't make it to the majors at all. But he made his first start this season on April 17 and has stuck with the team since -- and he's doing a very good job. Splitting time with Dioner Navarro and Kelly Shoppach, Jaso has been the team's best option behind the plate. He's not afraid to take a walk (14.9%), and he actually walks more than he strikes out (12.0%). He hasn't hit for much power -- 15 doubles, two triples, five homers -- so most of his offensive value comes from drawing those walks and getting on base.

As a rookie, Jaso deserves credit for keeping that OBP high all season. He deserves even more credit for doing that while playing such a demanding position. If Carlos Santana were still healthy, it's not likely many people would have noticed the solid contributions of Jaso, but with Santana injured, Jaso is the AL's best rookie catcher playing right now.

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So that about does it. I may have missed a rookie or two, or listed maybe a couple of guys who either have no shot at winning or maybe didn't deserve to be mentioned. If I had to give my top three right now, it would probably look like this:

1. Austin Jackson
2. Brian Matusz
3. Danny Valencia

Because I didn't list every player's WAR, here's a ranking of all nine players above based on their WARs from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference averaged together. (Not that wins above replacement is the final word when it comes to ranking players, but it is still helpful.)

1. Austin Jackson (2.95)
2. Danny Valencia (2.50)
3. John Jaso (2.25)
4. Brian Matusz (2.00)
5. Brennan Boesch (1.50)
6. Neftali Feliz (1.35)
7. Wade Davis (1.00)
8. Reid Brignac (0.75)
9. Mitch Talbot (0.65)

So to answer the question of this post, yes, Matusz does have a chance at the AL Rookie of the Year award. But he's going to have to be fantastic in his last few starts this season, and he may even need guys like Jackson and Valencia to take a step back. Jaso might have a chance as well, but the award may just be Jackson's to lose.

Redskins' trades with Rams under investigation by NFLPA

Earlier this week, the Redskins made two separate trades with the Rams that seemed a little strange at the time. In one deal, the Redskins acquired linebacker Hall Davis, a fifth-round draft selection. In another, the Rams acquired tight end Dennis Morris, the Redskins' sixth-round pick. Each player was traded for a future conditional draft pick.

Davis, oddly enough, was cut after just one practice with the Redskins, and although Morris hasn't been cut by the Rams yet, he's not expected to remain on the roster beyond Saturday, when rosters are trimmed down to 53 players.

According to Redskins Insider via an ESPN report by Chris Mortensen, the NFL Players Association is currently investigating a potential rule violation:

In the current uncapped year, a team must pay a drafted rookie 85 percent of his first-year minimum-wage $310,000 salary if the team chooses to release the player. But by shipping the rookie to another team and allowing that new team to then release him, the original team doesn't lose any money. And that appears to be what happened this week -- twice.

Because it's an uncapped season, things are a little different and it looks like the Redskins and Rams may have been trying to save a little money. According to the ESPN report, the above rule, called the 85-percent rule, "has been in the CBA since 1993 but this is the first year it has been triggered because there is no salary cap in 2010."

By trading away Morris and allowing the Rams release him, the Redskins could potentially save $272,000. The Rams would benefit from a similar amount of savings after Davis's release from the Redskins.

Two quotes from Richard Berthelsen of the NFLPA in the ESPN report are worth noting:

"It's true that we're monitoring it but we wouldn't do anything until the end of the year when we know the proportion that is either paid out or not paid out. . . . Unless there's some hidden provision I don't know about, then these teams may not understand the rule itself but I'm sure they will now. Like I said, that's not something we would be able to verify until after the season."

Here's my take: I'm sure both teams' front offices knew about the rule; why would they make such a trade in the first place if they didn't? And how often does a team acquire a player only to cut him after a single practice? I'm sure it doesn't happen that much -- at all. Maybe the Redskins and Rams figure they can get one over on the league and save a little money. But I guess we'll have to wait until after the season to find out what really happened and if there will be any punishment.

O's take first game against Red Sox, face tough test today

Brian Matusz allowed just two runs in six innings, striking out six and walking just one, and Luke Scott and Felix Pie both hit solo home runs in the eighth to give the Orioles a 5-2 win over the Red Sox.

The two runs scored on Matusz came on a two-run shot by Jed Lowrie in the fifth, but those were the only runs the Red Sox could muster against Matusz and the O's bullpen. But with Matusz running out of gas after 98 pitches, the well-rested bullpen went to work, and Jim Johnson, Michael Gonzalez, and Koji Uehara combined for three shutout innings to close the game out. Uehara was particularly impressive, earning a five-out save (his fifth).

The only O's hitters without a hit were Cesar Izturis and Josh Bell, and Scott and Brian Roberts each had two hits. Scott also walked. Nick Markakis went 1-4 with a double, which just happened to be a milestone hit. According to Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com, with the hit Markakis became the 19th outfielder since 1900 to record four seasons with at least 40 doubles. Congrats, Nick.

Tonight, though, the O's face a difficult obstacle in Red Sox ace Jon Lester. Lester is already having another fantastic season -- 14-8, 3.12 ERA, 176 K, 63 BB -- but he particularly thrives against the O's. In 15 career starts against Baltimore, Lester is 12-0 with a 2.00 ERA with 77 strikeouts and just 31 walks. The O's will counter with Jake Arrieta (5.10 ERA, 39 K, 46 BB), who lasted just four innings in his last start, against the White Sox. This will be Arrieta's first career start against the Red Sox.

(Photo via)

An injured Redskins team could be an ugly one

You probably already know by now that Donovan McNabb has a sprained ankle and hasn't been practicing. Head coach Mike Shanahan has said that he's not sure if McNabb will be ready in time to play in the season opener against Dallas. Unfortunately, Clinton Portis is also dealing with an injured ankle, though his injury isn't as much of a concern as McNabb's.

Neither practiced on Monday and both have already been ruled out of the Redskins' preseason finale against the Cardinals -- which is common since most starters are held out of the final preseason game anyway. Still, McNabb and Portis have nearly two weeks to get healthy, and according to Rick Maese (in the second linked story above), "both seemed to be walking around on their sore ankles without much problem" yesterday.

So they'll likely both be ready to play against Dallas. But don't expect this to be the last time that injuries plague McNabb and Portis this season. McNabb turns 34 in November, and although he's a tough guy and battles through an assortment of injuries, he has played a full 16 games just once in the last six seasons. (In three of those seasons, he played in 15, 14, and 14 games, so he's durable, but he will miss games.) Portis is a little younger -- he actually turns 29 tomorrow -- but he also plays a different position, running back, and has taken a pounding the last few seasons. Portis suffered a serious concussion last season and only played in eight games, but with Shanahan in town he seems to be in great shape and has been working out and practicing hard to impress the new coaching staff. If he stays healthy, he should unquestionably receive the bulk of the carries.

If McNabb and Portis miss games this season, especially at the same time, the Redskins are in big trouble. A starting lineup that features Rex Grossman at quarterback and Larry Johnson as the main rusher isn't exactly promising, to say the least. One of the risks the Redskins have taken over the last several years -- trading away their draft picks -- frequently results in a lack of depth at key positions. It's nice to have players like McNabb and Portis (both were acquired in trades), but it's even better to hold onto picks and draft solid players. Easier said than done, though, I guess.

For the Redskins to remain competitive this season, barring some kind of miracle, McNabb and Portis both need to be healthy and need to play well. It's a lot to ask of two players, but this team doesn't really have other options.

For the O's, it's all about the pitching (in August)

The Orioles are off tonight after a three-game sweep of the Angels in Anaheim. They have one more game in the month of August -- tomorrow at home against the Red Sox -- but have already clinched, with a 16-11 record, their first winning August since 1997. And not to harp on this point, but the O's are also 16-10 since Buck Showalter took over as manager on August 3.

But this post isn't about Showalter. He's obviously had some kind of effect on the team, but there's no way of knowing just exactly how much he means to the team both on and off the field. So instead, let's focus on something tangible, like how much better the starting pitching has been this month. The latest sweep of the Angels, which allowed the O's to sweep the season series (six games) from them for the first time ever, only reinforces how strong the starting pitching has been lately. On Friday, the O's won 3-1 behind eight innings and one run allowed by Brad Bergesen. In the outing, Bergesen struck out four and walked none. On Saturday, the O's turned to Kevin Millwood, who responded with a fantastic performance of eight scoreless innings. He walked only one while striking out five. And yesterday, Jeremy Guthrie capped the series with 8.1 innings of shutout ball, striking out five and walking just one. So in one three-game series, three O's starters combined for 24.1 innings and just one earned run. Simply put, that is fantastic.

But, again, the starting pitching has been outstanding all month. Out of all major league teams in the month of August (with two days to go), the O's have the fourth-best ERA (3.21) among starters. Think about that -- yes, the Orioles -- with a rotation of Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Bergesen, and Millwood, have the league's fourth-best ERA in August right now. In those 27 starts, O's starters have thrown a combined 182.1 innings, the most out of all MLB teams. Oddly enough, they've only struck out 92 batters in those innings -- second-lowest among all teams -- but have kept their walks down at the same time: 44 walks, tied for sixth fewest.

I'm not going to say the entire starting staff has turned over a new leaf. They've actually been a little lucky: O's starters have a combined .261 BABIP in August. And by not striking out a ton of batters and keeping their walks down, O's starters have been relying on the team's defense, though the O's currently have the worst UZR among all MLB teams.

Still, even if it's been a little bit of a fluke, no one can take away what the O's pitching staff has done this month. Starters are pitching later in games and throwing more innings, which not only keeps the O's in the game, but saves the bullpen from being used too much.

It's likely that Showalter has affected the team's pitching in same way -- maybe they're all trying to impress the team's new manager and show him that they deserve a spot in the rotation next season. With the exception of Millwood, the team's other four starters -- Matusz, Guthrie, Arrieta, and Bergesen -- are all showing that they can be relied on to start next season in the rotation. But who knows for sure.

August has been rather fun. Let's see what happens in September, when the O's play 17 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. Not even Showalter's magic may be enough to get the team through that difficult stretch of games.

Arrieta is walking too many batters

At just 24 years old, Jake Arrieta (5.10 ERA) has had his ups and downs in his first major league season. He's been very good at times, like on August 5 against the Angels when he allowed just two earned runs in 7.2 innings. He's also been occasionally frustrating to watch -- a common occurrence for young pitchers -- for example, his start last night, when he lasted just four innings while giving up four runs on seven hits.

And although he has shown flashes of brilliance, Arrieta has been dealing with one major problem: walks. In fact, he has more walks (46) than strikeouts (39), and he has walked at least two batters in each of his 15 starts. That is not a good sign.

In the minors, Arrieta did walk his fair share of batters, but not at the rate he is right now. Here's his strikeout and walk rates from his time in Frederick, Bowie, Norfolk, and Baltimore:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9
Frederick	113.0	9.6	4.1
Bowie	59.0	10.7	3.5
Norfolk (23)	91.2	7.7	3.2
Norfolk (24)	73.0	7.9	4.2
Baltimore	83.0	4.2	4.9

Now, much of that difference in Baltimore can be attributed to simply facing better hitters who won't chase as many pitches out of the zone. But why did Arrieta start walking almost a batter more per game at Norfolk when he was 24 instead of 23? Sure, it's not a big innings sample size, but it's still a bit odd, especially considering that his strikeout rate essentially stayed the same.

So what's the problem? Is Arrieta nibbling too much? Does he not trust his stuff enough to finish hitters off? Or is he just getting used to facing major league hitters who won't swing at pitches that many minor leaguers go after? It's probably a combination of all three, and it may be worth exploring if Arrieta's still struggling with his command next season. Right now, I think Arrieta deserves the benefit of the doubt because, after all, he's only thrown 83 major league innings. However, it's difficult enough to pitch effectively in the majors without walking nearly five batters per nine innings. Hopefully Arrieta makes the necessary improvements in the near future and pitches more efficiently in the zone.